Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

Hong Kong Property Developers - shares thread

Recommended Posts

The developers have had a nice run recently - Cheung Kong and Henderson (which I hold) in partcular.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, HK-12 now over $47 - nice one!

 

If it continues we may get a pop in HK property prices too.

(would that put "egg" on the faces of the AX Bears? let's see)

== ==

 

TICKET TO RIDE (Ferries) / and Housing Society Rents - now that much dearer

 

Once "cheap" locations now more expensive to reach - Like Lantau, Lamma, Cheung Chau... etc

 

No. Point to Hung Hom: up, from HK $5.50 to $6.50

 

Central to Mui Wo: up by 70 cents, and $1.10, depending on the day of week

+ Monthly passes up from HK $507.80 to $532.00 : + 4.76%

 

Meantime, the rents of 20 estates under the Housing Society, went up by 8 percent

 

> HK Standard, pg. 7

 

the point is cost of living in "cheaper" accommodation are rising fast.

 

Meantime:

 

1 / The Standard is talking about a "Baby step in Home Policy easing",

 

As: CYL has seemed to back away from the "HK Property for HK people" policy,

as it has become evident that many property prices have eased

 

2 / Nan Fung's CEO is interviewed in the SCMP,

Talking about the challenge of rising build costs, which are up from HK$1,000 to HK$3,000 psf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Midland's Chairman may have Bought near the Top

=

Some HK Properties INSIDERS are Bullish

 

1 /

Their salaries are rising fast.

Today's Standard says that Property Professionals (surveyors and architects) in HK,

enjoyed a salary rise of 9.2 percent, based on 1,525 interviews between Nov.2013, and January.

Salary growth lagged Malaysia (11%), but was in line with Singapore (9%), and ahead of China (7%.)

 

But the average salary in HK (HK$771,646) lagged behind China (HK$1.08 million0,

and Singapore (HK$979,500.)

 

HK-1200 / Midland Holdings ... Weekly-5yrs : Wk-10yrs :

HK1200_zpsb88bf426.png

 

2 /

Midland Holdings Chairman boosting stake.

Freddie Wong Kin-yip bought 1.49 million shares at HK$4.24, boosting his stake,

from 17.8 percent to 18.01 percent

=

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the increase in building activity and increases in construction industry labour costs generally, a rise in salaries for surveyors etc is not surprising. What is surprising is that their salaries are lower than Singapore and China.

 

Midland is an interesting situation - lots of animosity, a loss, and publicity. It is tempting to buy a board lot just so I can go to the next AGM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HK-1200: $3.91 -0.16 : -3.93%

 

I reckon you will have a chance to buy at near $3.50 or lower within 2014.

 

But I will admit I am probably wrong if it breaks out to a nw high on rising volume

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the Press trying to talk the market down? Why is that?

(Duplicate post)

 

Here's are some comments from today's Standard:

"

Most flats were sold with 3-7 percent price cuts.

A 451-square-foot flat at City One changed hands for HK$4.7 million after a HK$305,000 price cut.

Another flat at Tai Koo Shing was sold after a HK$400,000 price cut, with area prices at HK$12,337 per sq ft.

More primary projects are expected to be offered this month.

Cheung Kong Holdings' (0001) Trinity Towers at Cheung Sha Wan launches its last batch of 93 units priced

between HK$9,106 and HK$15,316, up 1 percent from the previous batches..."

> http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=144276&sid=41993332&con_type=1

==

In an illiquid market with few transactions, I would expect Sellers to Cut asking prices to get sales done.

Buyers are also raising bids to get transactions done - but we are never told :

"The buyer raised his bid by $200,000, and the Seller lowered their offer by $200,000,

to get a transaction done."

In fact, this is a normal pattern in negotiations, with both sides moving.

The press is reporting this in a way designed to leave the impression that prices are falling.

If they are, it is a very gentle process, as the Centaline indices reveal.

What the article does NOT report, is that:

"Tai Koo Shing ... area prices at HK$12,337 per sq ft"

... is simply NOT accurate.
The last price reported for TKS in Centaline was HK$11,392 - on 3/30/2014
And so if that was Transaction price, it was 8.3% over market, as per the Centaline Index.

That's a very different picture than The Standard is painting...

WHY?

Why are they trying to manipulate the market ??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

INSIDERS in Property companies are Buying - per SCMP

 

+ Lee Shau-kee bought 2.5 mn shares in Henderson Land at ave. $45.21 each (between Apr 24-29)

+ And also LSK bought 1.14 mn shs in SHKP at $96.92 per share (between Apr 24-29)

+ Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong bought 9.6 mn shs in SHKP at $95.12 (from Jan.3 - Mar.21),

+ Plus another 42.4 mn shs in an offmarket transacttion at undisclosed prices

+ Peter Woo Kwong-ching bought 3.62 mn shs in Wheelock at HK$30.13 in April

+ Robert Ng of Sino Land bought 288,000 shs in Sino at HK$11.42 each

 

Charts:

=====

HK-20 / Wheelock & Co. ... update

AA_zps802951df.gif

 

HK-83 / Sino Land ... update

HK-83_zpsd977dbbc.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting.

 

LSK is a regular buyer of Henderson (HK:12) making it a moderately predictable "buy the dips" stock.

 

Wharf (HK:4) and Wheelock (HK:20) seem to have come back the most among the big developers. In fact the divergence in the performance of Henderson/Cheung Kong and Wharf/Wheelock is quite striking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hong Kong Property

- "Cheapest in the World," says article in the HK Standard


Today's paper included an article by Martin Hennecke where he writes about the "cheapness" of HK Property. In this case, he is talking about Property stocks - which trade at the biggest discount to NAV on the planet:


Regional NAV Premium/ Discount - from biggest discount to largest premium


Country ==== : Prem/Disc.

Hong Kong -- : -35.0 %

China--------- : -19.7 %

Singapore---- : - 8.4 %

Cont. Europe : - 6.4 %

U.K. ----------- : - 5.8 %

U.S. ----------- : - 2.0 %

Australia ----- : + 2.0 %

Japan -------- : +24.5 %

=====

GLOBAL Ave.: -3.82%


"Implies an attractive arbitrage opportunity..."; But:

"...The sector can be a minefield," says Hennecke.

"It can be argued that the undervaluation is due to the market anticipating a sharp drop in local prices. But the reality is that properties - for the most part - are still being bought and sold at market prices."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that there is much better value in HK property shares than in HK physical property. There are well run companies selling at discounts to NAV which are not only significant in absolute terms but larger than historical averages. They also offer reasonable yields.

 

I was looking at some last week and was struck by the divergence of the recent share price movements between Cheung Kong (HK:1) and Henderson (HK:12) on the one hand and Wharf (HK:4) and Wheelock (HK:20) on the other hand. While there are obvious differences between these companies, I was struggling to explain the divergence.

 

http://www.aastocks.com/EN/stock/BasicChart.aspx?symbol=00004

 

Wharf offers a trailing yield of 3.2% (slightly higher than the market average) and a discount to NAV of 42% (52.65/90.94).

Wheelock 3.1% yield and a discount of 61% (31.55/81.98)

Henderson 2.2% yield and a discount of 42% (47.4/82.77)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wheelock - HK-20 :

 

I think (my old friend) Peter Woo, the chairman, has been an active buyer of stock not long ago.

I know for a fact that he is a clever guy, and if he's buying it is likely to be a genuine opportunity

 

AA_zps802951df.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HK stocks were hit yesterday

=

The Hang Seng Index had a Bad day yesterday

 

HSI ... 23,194 : to 22,804 : - 1.7%, biggest drop since March

 

HSI ... update : 10d-chart

 

HSI_zps1aa44742.gif

=

Some builders too:

 

Stock Name --- : Symbol : Friday : Mon. : Tue.(cl) chg. : Pct. :
Cheung Kong---- : HK-01 : 136.20 : 134.10 : 134.10 +0.30 +0.22%
Wharf Holdings-- : HK-04 : $56.35 : $55.35 : $55.35 - 0.35 -0.63%
Hender. Land --- : HK-12 : $46.60 : $45.25 : $45.25 - 0.10 -0.22%
SHK Properties-- : HK-16 : 107.10 : 105.40 : 105.40 - 0.20 -0.19%
Hang Seng Index : HSI--- : 23,194 : 22,885 : 23,194 + 80. +0.35%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RENT rising in HK, esp. near MTR Stations
Rents also pick up steam in resurgent mass housing in Hong Kong

Strong demand from businesses and mainland students amid a tight supply of flats is likely to turn up the heat in the leasing sector

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 25 June, 2014, 1:31am
  • rng_2797_31088757.jpg?itok=dFwuYE9b
Taikoo Shing in Quarry Bay has recorded a significant increase in rents.

Home seekers troubled by recent rises in the mass-residential sector now have an old foe to contend with: a resurgent rental market.

The recent gains in rents at 50 major housing estates in Hong Kong have come despite prices heading the other way for luxury properties, suggesting a polarisation is occurring in the city's rental market.

The average rent at the 50 estates tracked by Ricacorp Properties has grown for the past two months, with month-on-month gains of 0.3 per cent in April and 1 per cent in May, after declining 0.29 per cent during the first quarter.

"Rents began to fall gradually since the end of last year. But the trend has changed since April and the rental growth was more obvious in May. [it was] the highest in 10 months," said Patrick Chow Moon-kit, Ricacorp's head of research.

 

According to Centaline Property Agency, a flat of about 500 square feet at the Beaumount in Tseung Kwan O was let out for HK$9,500 a month in March. A similar flat fetched HK$11,000 a month recently.

Taikoo Shing in Quarry Bay has also recorded a significant increase in rents.

Patrick Tsang, a director at Centaline, said rents at the housing estate had risen from HK$29 to HK$30 per square foot in January to HK$32 this month.

"The demand is strong. Some tenants sold their flats and then rented because they were pessimistic on the market outlook. We have also seen some tenants looking for a new flat to rent because the landlords have raised their rent. Corporate clients are active in the leasing market, too," he added.

 

However, of the 12,698 units at Taikoo Shing, only 22 were available for immediate leasing, Centaline said. This compares with an average of 75 flats before the government imposed cooling measures on the market in February last year.

"After property sales turned active in recent months, the number of flats available for rent has been decreasing. The tight supply of flats and strong demand have driven up the rents," Chow said.

Ricacorp found that rent rises were the strongest in the New Territories. Based on those estates that were among the 50 tracked by the agency, the average rent in the area in- creased 1.3 per cent last month. Demand was particularly strong at City One Shatin and Tai Po Centre.

 

For the overall mass-residential market, Chow expects rents to climb a further 3 per cent by September, aided by the absence of completions of any housing estates over the next three months.

"Summer is also a peak season for the mass-residential leasing market as many mainland students have to rent a flat before the school year begins. The demand during summer holidays will increase by 10 to 20 per cent, compared with April. It will be a landlords' market," Chow said.

He believes flats at housing estates along railway lines in the New Territories will see higher rental growth.

==

> http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1539674/rents-also-pick-steam-resurgent-mass-housing-hong-kong

 

=== ===

 

Remember, buying property, even older low Cap properties you rent out, helps to protect you from further rent increases. Those old property under $3-4 Million are now trading near record highs.
Expect further price increases in the secondary market, if/when Rents rise more

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will HK Investors "buy on News" on Monday ?

 

HSI ... update

x-hsi_zpscc0vhisz.gif

 

Shanghai Comp. .. update

x-shcomp_zpssvymptcc.gif

 

The Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.32% turned down in the afternoon trading and ended 0.3% lower.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority was scheduled to hold a press meeting later in the day, amid expectations it might unveil policies to cool down real-estate markets.

Major local developers mostly declined, as :

Wharf Holdings Ltd.------------: $56.55 : -$1.70 : 0004, -2.92% tumbled 2.9%, both

Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.: 121.60 : -$2.00 : 0016, -1.62% and

Henderson Land Dev'l.--------: $53.00 : -$0.85 : 0012, -1.58% skidded 1.6%, and

Wheelock & Co. Ltd.-----------: $41.60 : -$0.65 : 0020, -1.54% shed 1.5%. However,

Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd.: 153.50 :+$0.50 : 0001, +0.33% ,

...owned by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, rose 0.3%, after its 2014 net profit surged 53%.

Its sister conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. 0013, +0.66% advanced 0.6%, as its earnings more than doubled in the last year.

In other Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei Average NIK, +0.06% eked out a 0.1% gain to 18,797.94, a fresh 15-year high. The broader Topix index I0000, +0.14% also inched up 0.1%. The yen turned slightly stronger against the greenback, trading at ¥119.34 from ¥119.49 late Thursday in New York.

On mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +0.36% rose further by 0.4% following a previous 2.2% rally.

==

> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-stocks-retreat-with-property-developers-weak-2015-02-27?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wheelock / HK-20

I think (my old friend) Peter Woo, the chairman, has been an active buyer of stock not long ago.

I know for a fact that he is a clever guy, and if he's buying it is likely to be a genuine opportunity

 

AA_zps802951df.gif

 

Wheelock hit a low of $31 in May, and recent;y touched $44 = that's +42%

 

HK20 / Wheelock & Co. ... update : $41.60 -$0.65 : -1.54%

HK20_zps4bqyxzui.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SWAP : from Wheelock to Hang Lung maybe?

 

Symbol / Company--- : $-Close : change : percent / end2008: Chg>Now

HK20- / Wheelock&Co. : $41.60 -$0.65 : -1.54% / $ 17.00 : +144.7%

HK10- / HangLungGrp : $36.20 -$0.05 : -0.14% / $ 23.45 : + 54.4%

HK101 / HangLungPrp : $22.00 /unch/ : -0.00% / $ 16.84 : + 30.6%

Ratio-- / HK20toHK10 : R-1.149 ===== : ====== / R-0.7249 : +58.5%

Ratio-- / HK20/HK101 : R-1.891 ===== : ====== / R-1.0095 : +87.3%

 

HK10 vs HK20 ... update : HK10 : HK20

Baba_zpsnfzwrmi9.gif

 

Starting in 2009, the Ratio of Wheelock to HK-101: was 1.0095, and is now at 1.891 - up 87.3%

Against HK-10, it is up 58.5%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Top Five HK Property Developers - By Units sold, 2014

 

Developer

SHKP ------------- : 3,325 : 20.00 %

Cheung Kong --- : 3,226 : 19.43 %

Henderson Land : 2,711 : 16.32 %

Sino Land ------- : 1,776 : 10.69 %

New World ------ : 1,760 : 10.60 %

====== TOTAL : 16,603 : 77.04 %

 

Smaller HK developers are gaining the muscle to compete

with the Top Five, by teaming up with larger mainland developers,

with more financial clout.

 

The figures above are the results of tenders previously won.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A TESTING TIME for HK Property's uptrend?

 

The SCMP predicted a correction this morning:

HK house prices to see mild correction, says SCMP, pg 1 Property section
"...seeing a slow pullback due to an uncertain outlook,
given the possibility of further tightening measures from the government."
"Some homeowners have started cutting asking prices..."
"Overall sentiment is very quiet..."
"

 

Here's HK-12 (Henderson Land) which closed on the 144d-MA today ... update

 

HK12-6mos_zpsyhlxtgc4.gif

 

OTHERS:

SHKP (HK16), CheungKong (HK1), Sino (HK63), HangLung (HK10)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A TESTING TIME for HK Property's uptrend?

 

The SCMP predicted a correction this morning:

HK house prices to see mild correction, says SCMP, pg 1 Property section

"...seeing a slow pullback due to an uncertain outlook,

given the possibility of further tightening measures from the government."

"Some homeowners have started cutting asking prices..."

"Overall sentiment is very quiet...""

 

Here's HK-12 (Henderson Land) which closed on the 144d-MA today ... update

 

HK12-6mos_zpsyhlxtgc4.gif

 

OTHERS:

SHKP (HK16), CheungKong (HK1), Sino (HK63), HangLung (HK10)

 

The 144d-MA has been broken by HK-12:

144d-MA: $52.65-ish / Latest: $51.75 ... 10-day-chart

200d-MA: $51.00 -ish

252d-MA: $49.00 -ish

377d-MA: $46.40 -ish

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PROPERTY STOCKS as Bellwethers

 

Back in 2010, I was using Henderson Land (HK-12) as my principle bellwether for HK Property price moves.

At first, I thought it was giving a clear signal of a drop:

"Eventually, I want to be cashed up and ready to buy HK property again, but probably not until sometime in 2011,

when I think HK property prices might be 15-20% lower"

But later, it moved higher

 

HK-10 / Henderson Land ... update

HK12-fr2008_zpsj5fe7vbx.gif

 

Funnily enough, the HK-12 chart traced out what I had expected for HK property with a big drop (-XX%)

into a late 2011 Low.

 

The long term chart of HK-12 suggests some important resistance level had been hit near HK$57 ... update

 

HK12-All_zpsfxobpreb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SWAP : from Wheelock to Hang Lung maybe?

 

Symbol / Company--- : $-Close : change : percent / end2008: Chg>Now

HK20- / Wheelock&Co. : $41.60 -$0.65 : -1.54% / $ 17.00 : +144.7%

HK10- / HangLungGrp : $36.20 -$0.05 : -0.14% / $ 23.45 : + 54.4%

HK101 / HangLungPrp : $22.00 /unch/ : -0.00% / $ 16.84 : + 30.6%

Ratio-- / HK20toHK10 : R-1.149 ===== : ====== / R-0.7249 : +58.5%

Ratio-- / HK20/HK101 : R-1.891 ===== : ====== / R-1.0095 : +87.3%

 

HK10 vs HK20 ... update : HK10 : HK20

Baba_zpsnfzwrmi9.gif

 

Starting in 2009, the Ratio of Wheelock to HK-101: was 1.0095, and is now at 1.891 - up 87.3%

Against HK-10, it is up 58.5%

 

How's this working? The Pairs trade is ahead by (10.70-3.18) = 7.52% in just over two weeks

 

Update:

======

Symbol / Company--- : $-2/27 : $-3/16*: change : percent / end2008: Chg>Now

HK20- / Wheelock&Co : $41.60 : $37.15 : -$4.45 : -10.70% / $ 17.00 : +118.5%

HK10- / HangLungGrp : $36.20 : $35.05 : -$1.15 : - 3.18% / $ 23.45 : + 49.5%

HK101 / HangLungPrp : $22.00 : $21.60 : -$0.40 : - 1.82% / $ 16.84 : + 28.3%

Ratio-- / HK20toHK10 : R1.149 : R1.060 : ===== : ======= / R0.7249 : +46.2%

HK04- / Wharf Hldings : $56.55 : $51.15 : -$5.40 : - 9.55% /

=====

 

A related co., Wharf Holdings (HK-4) announced earnings today:

 

Down -7% to HK$10.5 billion, and on the lower end of expectations.

"Mainland property woes" ate into its earnings.

Some disruptions related to Occupy, cut into the revenues of three hotels

 

Volume of space was more than expected, but prices were lower.

 

Wharf has a cluster of luxury projects on the Peak that will be completed this year.

Also, there are 11 self-owned hotels in the pipeline, including six new ones on the mainland

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Add the MTR Corp. (HK-66) to the Mix

 

Hang Lung (HK-10), versus Wheelock (HK-20) and HK-66 ... update

 

MTR-etc_zpsggcmkagy.gif

 

Hang Lung (HK-10) alone ... update : MTR/ HK-66 alone

 

HK-10_zpsrqskdto7.gif

 

Kowloon property drives MTR Success, HK Standard, pg.9

 

(Note: MktCap is HK$204.5 bn)

MTR Corp's profits rose 20% to HK$15.6 bn, thnx to :

+ Non-reoccuring property sales at The Austin and Grand Austin

+ Profits from reoccuring biz rose 7.9% to HK$8.02 bn

+ Expects to launch at mots, four plots in 2015:

: 2-3 at LOHAS Park (5,000 units), and one at Yuen Long

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another HK Property Stock threatening to breakdown.

This one reflects mostly Retail and Commercial/Office values

 

HK-14 / Hysan Development ... update : 24-mos

 

HK-14_zps5oz70cfh.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hang Seng: Breakout ! :

27,575.67 : +5.10%

Change:

arrow_up_sm.gif+1,338.81

Open: 26,913.28

High: 27,922.67

Low: 26,844.53 / ... update: 2-years : 10-days

Percent Change:

HSI-2yrs_zpshagonjzf.gif

 

Why the big gain?

It's the "Thru-Train" ! Or as The Standard put it:

"Money train arrives with a bang", pg.2

Yesterday: the HSI closed up nearly 1,000 pts., or 3.8%

Turnover beat the 2007 record of HK$209.8bn, hitting HK$252.4bn

"The Shanghaiese are showing signs of hopping aboard the through train scheme."

The disparity in price between mainland stocks and those in HK is still wide."

Compare: HK-HSI vs. CN:ShComp : 3-yrs : 1-yr : 10d

 

"More Good gains for China"

CN:SHCOMP / Shanghai Composite Index (INDEX) ... update

SHcomp_zps1jb4v4gf.gif

 

HK :HSI / Hang Seng Index ... update

HSI_zps1pjagb1m.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×