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Hong Kong Property Developers - shares thread

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Hong Kong Property Developers - shares thread
Is it time to start buying?
=============================

"When the mood is universally gloomy (as now), and the negative fundamentals are more than reflected in prices (as now, with the average HK developer share trading about 40% off its High of the year), then it may be time to buy."
- OTP on AX : AX-Devl-thread

:: Hang Seng Property Index : 10/14/11: - 1.385% / $23,679 HKD
hkprp.png
/source: http://www.bloomberg...?ticker=HSP:IND

Possible Prop Longs $-Price : HighPr -% off : $-Div. : Yield% : PER: post
HSI =/ HangSeng: 17,636 : 24.98k-29.4%
HK01=/ CheungK. : $84.90 : 137.6 - 38.3% : $1.061 : 1.25% : 9.17 :
HK04=/ WharfHd. : $39.25 : 63.80 - 38.5% : $0.718 : 1.83% : n/a- :
HK10=/ HangLGp : $39.95 : 54.95 - 27.3% : $1.138 : 2.85% : n/a- :
HK12=/ Hender.L : $36.05 : 61.50 - 41.3% : $0.598 : 1.66% : n/a- :
HK14=/ HysanDev : $24.50 : 39.45 - 37.9% : $0.293 : 1.22% : n/a- :
HK16=/ Sun HKP : $90.00 : 147.0 - 38.8% : $4.797 : 5.33% : 10.3 : -p#13
HK17=/ NewWrld : $07.56 : 17.98 - 58.0% : $0.000 : 0.00% : n/a- :
HK83=/ SinoLand : $10.48 : 18.90 - 44.6% : $0.700 : 6.68% : 14.5 :
HK101/ HangLPr : $23.90 : 40.50 - 41.0% : $1.080 : 4.52% : n/a- :
HK480/ HKResrt. : $02.70 : $5.50 - 50.9% : $0.220 : 8.15% : n/a- :
HK635/ PlaymHd : $02.25 : $3.13 -28.1% : $1.000 : 4.44% : n/a - :
HK917/ NWChina : $01.95 : $3.24 -39.8% : $0.060 : 3.08% : n/a - :

hkfromkln1b.jpg
=== ===
LINKS:
/GeoExpat- :: http://hongkong.geoe...read265938.html

/AX thread- ::
Adv Charts :: http://www.advfn.com...hp3?id=26024813
The Big 3- :: HK-1 : HK-16 : HK-101 : Bellwethers
Centaline :: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm
Link here- :: http://tinyurl.com/HKpropShs

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From the AX Thread: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/

COMMENTS:

OffThePeak (17 hrs ago)

===========

"Property prices have slumped 8-10% all over hong kong. this is going to continue for the next few months."

 

We are in a "Buyer's Market" now, rather than the "Seller's Market" we saw 3-4 months ago. What's the difference? Buyer's are scarce, and those that do want to buy have plenty of supply to consider. The agent's job is a Buyers market, is to "talk down the Sellers" to a level a buyer is willing to pay. That means property tends to trade on the "Bid" side of a the Bid/Offer spread, because few buyers are willing to pay up, unless it is a special property. I reckon this will continue as long as the factors making the environment look negative continue.

 

What are those Negative factors:

+ Banks have pushed up their spreads by almost 50 bp (0.50%),

+ The government has imposed severe limits on LTV lending percentages

+ The govt has imposed an "anti-speculation tax", taking the ST traders out

+ The govt has promised to flood the market with supply, to bring prices down

+ HK's Hang Seng index is in a bear market

+ Globally, there is a fear of a "double dip" or worse

+ China is slowing down and tightening credit

 

All these negative factors will not last forever, and I think they will fall away one by one. How far will the market slide? I can see 10-15% off the top, but I think predictions of a 25-30% slide may well be excessive.

 

I am seriously considering buying a small portfolio of HK Property stocks if the HSI falls to 15,000, where I would expect important support to reside. Those stocks are already anticipating a larger correction than we may see, and you can achieve dividend yields in the region of 5%. And that will go up, if the HSI falls to 15,000.

 

Oly88 (16 hrs ago)

======

gdep, I think you have summed it up pretty well. And I do expect the price of properties to drop slightly in the near future, but I think they will increase again shortly because 1) I don't see Greece failing, and the economies in Europe/elsewhere are strengthening, and 2) high inflation and low interest rates. My high school economics teacher already told me that when inflation is higher than interest rates, then it makes sense to make loans. Having said this, the property market here is partly speculative (though the government has reduced this), so it may drop considerably if the people think it will.

 

I am interested in hearing more about property stocks. Can anybody give some information? It's something I have never considered. Thanks.

 

ecareken (5 hrs ago)

========

Things are currently not all too rosey for the main developers here, but many (like 0017) are holding vast amounts of properties yet to be developed.

 

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=2&art_id=115695&sid=33903317&con_type=1&d_str=20110930&fc=7

 

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela (4 hrs ago)

=============

Have been buying small chunks of Henderson Land (0012). Price-to-book value now 0.51 (ie for 51 cents you get $1 of value). Pretty damn cheap if you ask me for such a solid company.

 

OffThePeak (20 secs ago)

==========

Yeah, Loyd.

When the mood is universally gloomy (as now), and the negative fundamentals are more than reflected in prices (as now, with the average HK developer share trading about 40% off its High of the year), then it may be time to buy.

 

We may start this afternoon, and then pick up more, much more, if the Hang Seng Index falls to our target of 15,000.

 

I can mention what we buy, if people are interested.

 

Does anyone have links to reports showing the NAV's of HK Developers?

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From the AX Thread: xx

"Does anyone have links to reports showing the NAV's of HK Developers?"

Here are some Reports:

(1)

HK Property 2011 Outlook - JP Morgan - dated 21 November 2010

Policy intervention getting intensified; stick to landlords

/see: https://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i=2DF30-2&u=a_p*d_509131.pdf*h_-10lqbiu%0D%0A

 

Possible Prop Longs $-Price : HighPr -% off :

HSI ==/ HangSeng : 17,636: 24.98k-29.4% : -NAV* : Disc.% : JP-pr*

HK01=/ CheungKg : $84.90 : 137.6 - 38.3% : 169.80: -50.0% : 1238

HK04=/ WharfHd. : $39.25 : 63.80 - 38.5% : $76.10: -48.4% : $54.8

HK10=/ HangLGp : $39.95 : 54.95 - 27.3% : $62.80: -36.4% : $50.7

HK12=/ Hender.L : $36.05 : 61.50 - 41.3% : $78.90: -54.3% : $57.8

HK14=/ HysanDev : $24.50 : 39.45 - 37.9% : $50.20: -51.2% : $32.5

HK16=/ Sun HKP : $90.00 : 147.0 - 38.8% : 180.40: -50.1% : 135.5

HK17=/ NewWrld : $07.56 : 17.98 - 58.0% : $29.00: -73.9% : $16.3

HK83=/ SinoLand : $10.48 : 18.90 - 44.6% : $21.30: -50.8% : $16.6

HK101/ HangLPr : $23.90 : 40.50 - 41.0% : $34.80: -31.3% : $36.4

HK19./ SwirePac : $80.60 : 137.2 - 41.2% : 183.00: -56.0% : 120.9

HK41=/ GreatEgl : $17.10 : 29.00 - 41.0% : $50.60: -66.2% : $24.6

HK683/ KerryPr. : $24.60 : 47.00 - 47.7% : $73.80: -66.7% : $42.6

HK823/ LINK.reit : $24.85 : 28.20 - 11.9% : $27.00: -08.0% : $24.3

HK2778 Champ.R : $02.96 : $5.06 - 41.5% : $04.10: -27.8% : $4.50

HK480/ HKResrt. : $02.70 : $5.50 - 50.9% : $ ????

HK635/ PlaymHd : $02.25 : $3.13 -28.1% : $ ????

HK917/ NWChina : $01.95 : $3.24 -39.8% : $ ????

========

*Based on JPM's 2011 Outlook, dtd. 21 Nov.2010

 

EXCERPT:

HK residential property to be the battlefield between policy

interventions and liquidity: The HK government finally appears to be

determined to curb housing prices with an unprecedented heavy stamp duty

levied on speculators. We believe this is a strong dose to calm down the

housing market, which has remained heated despite earlier measures and we

expect 5% downside in the near-term. Although we see a 15% upside in

2011, policy measures could carry on.

 

• Landlords a strong preference to ride on solid economic growth and

prevailing low cap-rates: Given the new measures, we expect slower

property sales that drive down development NAV. In contrast, commercial

properties are less vulnerable to policy interventions, and are buoyed by the

resilient demand without significant cap rate expansion. We upgrade our

NAV estimates of landlords by 9-27% while those of developers range from

+3 to -10%. We expect landlords to trade at narrower than LT average NAV

discounts given the lower resistance to commercial rental growth and

abundant liquidity, while most developers will trade at LT average

discounts or slightly below. As a result, we upgrade Hongkong Land (proxy

to HK office) to OW from N and downgrade Sino Land (largest exposure to

HK residential) to N from OW.

 

• Prefer Wharf, HKL and Hysan: Overall we are neutral on HK Property as

it offers only 12% upside. Our top picks are Wharf, HKL and Hysan...

 

(2)

xxx

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Even Cheaper today - HSI down by 4.5%

I think we could be testing 15,000 - 16,000 this week.

It is possible.

We started buying already, but only took a piece.

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It is possible.

We started buying already, but only took a piece.

 

Which developers are you interested in particular - Henderson, Cheung Kong, Nan Fung?

Do you think the slow moving train wreak called the Euro zone will bring world indices down further? I can see a deeper slide throughout October as Greece and others stumble.

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Monday's HSI: 16,822 - 770

Which developers are you interested in particular - Henderson, Cheung Kong, Nan Fung?

We bought our favorites : Sun Hung Kai Properties (HK16), and Hang Lung (HK101).

But also starter positions in: Cheung Kong, Henderson, and HK Resorts.

 

SHORTS

An interest factoid was in today's Standard:

"I'm not sure how much wisdom there is in negative talk about China, but short positions held over stocks swelled to a 12-year high on Friday, dwarfing even the period during the financial tsunami."

 

At some point, those shorts are going to buy, and that should fuel a nice rally.

 

The WSJ blamed yesterday's drop on:

"Concern about tighter lending policies and persistent worries over Europe's debt crisis."

"People are looking for reasons to sell, not to buy."

 

There are reports of rising bankrutcies, and bad loans amidst the tighten of credit by China, to bring down inflation.

Small and middle-sized business are the ones most effected by the more strict credit policies (and there are press reports that some are paying rates as high as 20 pc to 180 pc - what legitimate business can afford such rates?) SME bankruptcies hit 19 middle-sized companies in Wenzhou, and some think they may soon spread to mining areas like Inner Mongolia.

 

A sharp drop in Copper has been a good bellwether for sliding China stocks : Chart-CU-vs-FXI

 

In HK, I watch: HK2823, rather than us-quoted FXI

 

China Overseas has also been a bellwether for the property sector : HK688-vs-HK16,HK101

 

I note that HK688 is up today as I write this:

 

HK688 : $10.48 / Change: +0.42

Open: 10.30 / High: 10.58 / Low: 10.08

Volume: 25,002,587

Percent Change: +4.17%

 

HK16 is flat, and HK101 is down about 4%

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(FRom the AsiaXpat thread):

 

Jaswells wrote: "Most people in Hong Kong must now think property is about to fall sharply in price (data proves this) apart from the seriously deluded, the only question is by how much?. I maintain a 20-30% correction in the coming weeks is 'most likely' scenario"

 

It seems like many people here are inclined to GIVE IN TO THE FEAR, and cannot spot an opportunity when they see one.

 

I do agree that many HK investors were expecting a huge correction in property, and that was reflected in the share prices of HK Property Developers, which were down 40-50% or more. At the same time, there was a record short position in stocks - greater even than in 2008-9. To me, that spells opportunity, and I have been buying shares of HK property developers in the last few days.

 

Yesterday showed a very convincing reversal in US stock trading, and I would expect that to spill over to the HK market when it opens tomorrow.

 

Remember what Warren Buffett said: You have to buy when everyone is fearful, and sell when everyone is convinced prices are going higher. We may have seen a classic buying opportunity like that, and I wonder how many here took advantage of it - Even though I highlighted it in posts above. Others like LGMV were also speaking about it, so I was not alone.

 

- OffThePeak

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Another good call Dr B judging by today's rises in the developers share prices. Can I ask was your call meditated mainly by the extent of short positions in the market or are you picking up anthing about the HK housing market in general - for example regarding the likely direction of policy?

 

Lev

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Another good call Dr B judging by today's rises in the developers share prices. Can I ask was your call meditated mainly by the extent of short positions in the market or are you picking up anthing about the HK housing market in general - for example regarding the likely direction of policy?

 

Lev

Mostly by:

 

+ Oversold market

+ Valuations looked cheap

+ Some stocks were on, or approaching, long term support levels.

 

The "likely direction of policy"?

I am not able to guess that. But people are not expecting anything which would be bullish for prices, so there is room for a positive surprise.

 

There's a decent chance this will be JUST A BOUNCE before a lower low, so I may take some profits if the buying volume is unimpressive.

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GOOD, BAD, or UGLY? / Posts from AX

===================

 

Posted by Oly88

 

Indeed! Good timing! Next time I shall listen to you! :)

 

By the way, do you think the HS Index will go down again, as most people say?

 

 

Posted by jaswells

 

I must admit I am quite shocked by that most recent data from centadata:

 

http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

 

These transactions take us up to the 2nd October. This is a significant upward momentum in price. Clearly Hong Kong property prices are presently detached from the negativity evident in other asset markets.

 

 

 

Posted by Oly88

 

You beat me on this :(

 

Yes, property prices keep going up :)

 

 

Posted by jaswells

 

The future is so bright for future generations of HKongers. They can all buy a flat and become multimillionaires too :)

 

 

Posted by OffThePeak

 

Will the HS Index fall again?

 

Watch the volume. If it powers thru HSI-20,000 on high volume, then chances are we will get a multi-week, or multi-month rally, If it begins to falter as it approaches 20,000 (or 21,000 or some higher figure) on light volume, then that will be a sign that it is a brief rally, to be followed by further declines.

 

At this point, I will bet on a lower HSI : probably 15,000 or lower - in 2012. But as it happens, I will watch volume, and let the market tell me what it wants to do.

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SHKP is one of the "Big Three" - I had missed this report

 

Sun Hung Kai raises bar on profit records

 

Karen Ha .. Friday, September 16, 2011

 

Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) saw underlying profit for the 12 months ended June 30 hit a record high of HK$21.48 billion, up 55 percent year- on-year.

The figure beat the highest market forecast of HK$20.05 billion.

 

Net profit during the period rose 60 percent to HK$48.1 billion - also a record high. Revenue jumped 88 percent to HK$62.55 billion.

 

Earnings per share was HK$8.36. The board proposed a final dividend of HK$2.40 per share, up from HK$1.80 a year ago.

 

Property sales rose 152 percent from a year ago to HK$16.65 billion.

 

"Effects from the government's cooling measures are seen, and has almost got rid of all the speculative activities," vice chairman Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong said.

 

"The market is now mainly driven by end-users and long-term investors. I am confident that the property market next year is still positive, riding on continuous inflationary pressure, the increasing per capita income, and low interest rates."

 

However, Sun Hung Kai also noted the result was helped by the economic environment, and such figures "may not be the norm" for the company.

 

The developer said it will put around 3,000 units on the market in the next nine months, aiming to raise around HK$28 billion.

 

Since July, the developer has generated HK$14 billion -HK$15 billion from sales at Imperial Cullinan*, a luxury project atop the Olympic MTR station.

 

The annual result may look good, but some analysts remain concerned.

 

"The outlook is uncertain in terms of what's next after 2012. It seems that they will have to do more work as buyers' sentiment is relatively weak, and even deteriorating.

 

" It is a challenging environment [for the developer] to achieve the same earnings next year," said Lee Wee-liat, property analyst at Samsung Securities.

 

Sun Hung Kai shares closed up 1.48 percent at HK$102.40.

 

/source: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=115231&sid=33740921&con_type=1

 

*Long Xi video: In some ways, this is misleading about the actual location and the views. But in one way it may be accurate: owners might start off underwater, before soaring - one hopes. BTW, the location is not "atop Olympic MTR", it is sandwiched between One Silver Sea, and The Long Beach - which have better views, and maybe lower prices.

 

(HK-16)

Earnings- : HK$21.48 billion, up 55 percent

Sh. Price : $90.00

Shares OS : 2,467 Mn.

Mkt.Cap.. : HK$222.0 billion

PE Ratio. : 10.34

===

HK16=/ Sun HKP : $90.00 : 147.0 - 38.8% : $4.797 : 5.33% : 10.3 : -p#13

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: First round of purchases is up over 6%

The 2nd round of purchases is up over 8%

 

I have put the first sell order in

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Sold over 80% of my HK Prop. Developer shares at something like 8% profit,

keeping only some shares in Hang Lung and SHKP, "mostly paid-for" with the profits.

 

I expect lower prices before year-end

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(From the AsiaXpat thread):

 

Posted by Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela (1 day ago)

 

...Not bullish on the New Territories property market at all. Like HK island and property stocks (someone has to build all these flats).

 

This is not a tip (I'm not an investment professional) but Great Eagle 0041 - a real Cinderella stock - is now trading at an ultra cheap price-to-book ratio of 34 cents (ie you pay 34 cents for each $1 of value). It's now $17.38, I own it at about $22 (sniff). Hysan's price-to-book is 61 cents, Henderson's 52 cents, Sun Hung Kai's 84 cents, Cheung Kong 73 cents, New World Development's 34 cents, Wharf's 63 cents, Hang Lung's $1.06 (expensive), Sino Land 75 cents.

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I "caught the falling knife".... in HK Property Developers

 

Grabbed a profit, and now an awaiting the Retest of the Lows

Sep-30:

HSPI-30sep.png.jpg

Oct-14:

HSPI-14oct.png.jpg

 

Hang Seng Property Index :

10/14/11: - 1.385% / $23,679 HKD

09/30/11: - 3.195% / $20,935 HKD

 

If the index keeps, rising:

+ I have "banked" my profit in HK-101 shares

+ I have property I would consider selling at the right price

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+ I have "banked" my profit in HK-101 shares

Sold the Hang Lung/HK-101 shares at $27.25

 

This global rally is now showing low volume, and may be "running out of gas"

 

Hang Seng Property Index : HSP:IND

=========

09/30/11: - 3.195% / $20,935 HKD

10/14/11: - 1.385% / $23,679 HKD

10/24/11: + 0.520% / $23,844 HKD

 

The cash that I took out of property shares was parked in Gold/HK2840 last week at: $1220-1229

(and HK3081 at $ 40.20 and HK766 at $11.6-11.9)

== ==

Today:

HK2840 : 1252.0 + 2.00

HK3081 : $ 41.20 + 0.10

HK0766 : $ 00.12 - .005

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Investors Short HK Property Stocks on China Slowdown Fears

 

24 Nov 2011 | By: Abby Schultz

 

Investors have turned bearish on Hong Kong’s property market, shorting stocks of real estate developers with fortunes closely linked to demand from mainland China.

 

Hong Kong’s big property companies have little exposure to the mainland as most of their business is concentrated in Hong Kong, with the exception of a few. But, they aren’t immune to what’s happening there as mainland Chinese make up a huge percentage of property buyers in Hong Kong.

 

In the third quarter, 51 percent of buyers of primary real estate were from the mainland, according to a survey by Hong Kong property agency Centaline.

 

In addition, analysts expect property prices in Hong Kong to fall at least 10 to 15 percent next year as the territory's economy slows.

 

As a result, investors have been shorting stocks of most large property developers listed on the Hang Seng Index over the past six months, according to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

 

Short-sales as a percentage of trading volume for Sino Land [0083.HK 9.36 -0.25 (-2.6%) ], for example, rose to more than 25 percent in September and October from less than 17 percent in May and 14 percent in June, according to the data from the exchange.

 

Since the start of the year, share prices of property firms Sun Hung Kai [0016.HK 91.70 -0.75 (-0.81%) ], Cheung Kong Holdings [0001.HK 84.90 -0.25 (-0.29%) ] and Henderson Land Development [0012.HK 36.90 -0.15 (-0.41%) ], have all fallen more than the 18 percent drop for the broader market [.HSI 17689.48 -245.62 (-1.37%) ].

 

“If you look at the history of Hong Kong, property prices either go up significantly, or they go down significantly,” Wee Liat Lee, an analyst at Samsung Securities, said. “Some hedge funds have taken a view, ‘if we’re sure about the direction, maybe the fall will be much bigger,” Lee said.

 

According to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report sent to clients in October, property stocks have room to fall even more if the economy continues to slide.

 

“If we take the trough valuation in 2008 into consideration, there could still be a 30 percent type of downside to go, before Hong Kong property prices reach bottom," the report said.

 

Michael McGowan, lead manager of the Forward International Real Estate Fund, which invests in non-U.S. real estate stocks, says, “The predominant reason for these shorts is probably to hedge macro uncertainty out of China or Europe, and people don’t even know the property companies themselves. They are big and liquid and you can short them.”

 

Many of these stocks, too, are included in “baskets” created by brokerages as a means for hedge funds to short the Hong Kong market, McGowan said.

 

/more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45424509

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INSIDERS BIG BUYERS of property stocks - says Robert Halili

 

In 2011, a whopping 44 co's recorded 11,015 purchases worth HK$19.3 billion - Sectors with the heaviest price support were property, industrials, consumer goods, and retail.

 

Directors of property stock led the way, with 7,485 transactions worth HK$14.1 billion, featuring three big co's:

 

+ Henderson Land (HK-12) ... update

hk122009to11.png

 

+ Cheung Kong (HK-01) ... update

hk12009to11.png

 

+ Sun Hung Kai Properties (HK-16) ... update

hk162009to11.png

 

Only 86 of the 444 co's showed a prices increase from the level of director buys. 295 co's showed a decrease. Yet that can be explained by a fall in the Hang Seng index over the course of the year.

 

+ Hang Seng Index (HSI) ... update

hsi2009to11.png

 

As a Bellwether, I will be watching Hang Lung Properties (HK-101) ... update

hanglungprvshsi.png

 

For HK-101, there seems to be support just below HK$20, at about the HK$19 level.

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Cheung Kong (HK-1) and others are still in a downtrend ... update

 

hk1w.png

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Still don't get why many of these property developers are trading at such low valuations. Cheung Kong and SHK at 4 and 5 P/E respectively. EPS pretty good. These are historically solid companies. Oh well guess that's why I'm not a pro.

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Still don't get why many of these property developers are trading at such low valuations. Cheung Kong and SHK at 4 and 5 P/E respectively. EPS pretty good. These are historically solid companies. Oh well guess that's why I'm not a pro.

 

People must be expecting a squeeze on earnings in 2012 and beyond

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Some ideas - not developers

 

312

1968

299 - $690 / $600 : FCF:

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Q. on AX: "Anybody holding Sun Kai Properties this week?"

 

I sold all my SHKP shares within a few weeks after buying them near last year's lows. (Actually, I have now sold ALL my property developer shares.)

 

HK16 Sold off Friday, on very heavy volume on Friday: 96.50 : -14.60 / -13.14%

On very heavy volume, over 120 million shares.

 

Sun Hung Kai Properties / HK16 ... update

shkp.png

 

I think it has enough momentum to fall to the $80-90 range this week.

 

Ideal support levels to bounce off would be the 530wk.MA near $89, or the Low of 2011 at $85.45.

 

I will consider buying this week, as early as Monday

=======

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