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50sQuiff

A bearish winter ahead for UK housing?

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Where are you Hog? I'm in Maida Vale. Zero chance of me ever buying here, unless I come upon a huge windfall and buy a mews!

 

As you say, prices are still out of control. In fact a BTLer has just bought a couple of the flats in my building and is renting one of them to his daughter. Does it get any worse than a toxic BOMAD/BTL combination when you're paying a small fortune to rent a 1 bedder?

 

 

Squiffy

I am just up the road in St Johns Wood over looking Hedge Fund Manager Alley. When I moved here 34 years ago the 2 bed 2 bath flats were £13500. In Maida Vale the equivalent flat would have cost £9000 if you bought it off the Church Commisioners when they sold of the Maida Vale Estate. We were first time buyers 34 years ago. We would need a collossal income now to get on this particular ladder. In those day were both earned modest amounts - about £3000pa.

I sympathise with anyone trying to buy around here, or indeed sell. We had one situation in our building where an unmodernised rental flat came on the market ( widow selling a surplus property) via a well known agent. The buyer somehow helped himself to a spare set of keys in the flat and promptly started to market the flat through other agents at a much higher price. This stunt raked in a quick £70000. Both deals completed simultaneously! So the seller is now less than pleased.

Hope you strike gold soon!

Hogwild

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Is it crash cruise speed yet?

hpiuk2011nov.gif

 

Maybe not yet.

So far, only "high delusion" (near 144-145%) is being corrected.

 

When the Delusion index slides below 140% or 137%, then more "fun" maybe be underway.

Watch London asking prices, when they start it crumbled, it is really over.

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READ THE CHARTS HERE ! (And examine the actual DATA): http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data

They whisper their messages to those who can decipher them, as we have done on GEI.

 

hpiuk2011nvcalls.gif

Close-up : H&N Index (average of Halifax & Nationwide) ..... Rightmove's Greater London Offering prices

ukhansm.jpg.ukgrlsm.jpg

 

The Rest of the UK (H&N Index, with Gr.London prices extracted)

ukruksm.jpg

=== === ===

 

Rest of the UK is now in Crash Cruise Speed, and should soon crash below GBP 120,000.

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READ THE CHARTS HERE ! (And examine the actual DATA): http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data

They whisper their messages to those who can decipher them, as we have done on GEI.

 

hpiuk2011nvcalls.gif

Close-up : H&N Index (average of Halifax & Nationwide) ..... Rightmove's Greater London Offering prices

ukhansm.jpg.ukgrlsm.jpg

 

The Rest of the UK (H&N Index, with Gr.London prices extracted)

ukruksm.jpg

=== === ===

 

Rest of the UK is now in Crash Cruise Speed, and should soon crash below GBP 120,000.

 

I would be interested to see these charts with some monthly Fibonacci moving averages?

 

Anyone have superior Excel skills?

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I would be interested to see these charts with some monthly Fibonacci moving averages?

Anyone have superior Excel skills?

I think that Blue MA (which is 48 months, and the Red one is 12 mos) is pretty interesting.

It suggests the up Move in the H&N Index has petered out, and we may now be set for a resumption of the Crash.

 

The Greater London chart has the look of a Final Rally to me, and an eventual slide below the 48d-MA would be very bearish if/when it happens

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I think that Blue MA (which is 48 months, and the Red one is 12 mos) is pretty interesting.

It suggests the up Move in the H&N Index has petered out, and we may now be set for a resumption of the Crash.

 

The Greater London chart has the look of a Final Rally to me, and an eventual slide below the 48d-MA would be very bearish if/when it happens

 

I would have thought the housing market to be too illiquid to be analysed using traditional TA methods?

 

Fundamental analysis would probably be more suitable?

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Remember TTRTR on HPC?

Wonder what he/she would have said about this...

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.htm?big_rise_in_eviction_orders_as_tenants_struggle_to_pay_rent

:o

He specialised in tenants-who-share, so some of these problems would not be unknown:

 

"The report also found that almost three-quarters (72%) of those who have sought possession of their rental property were driven to do so by rent arrears. Other reasons for seeking possession include anti-social behaviour, which contributed to nearly half of possessions."

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I would have thought the housing market to be too illiquid to be analysed using traditional TA methods?

Fundamental analysis would probably be more suitable?

Not at all !

Look at the charts, and you will see that the 12 mo-MA and 48 mo-MA have worked very well so far !

 

ukhansmp3.png..ukgrlsmp3.png..

 

MOMENTS OF TRUTH... and the 48month MA's held

 

Month: H&N-Index : 48mo.-MA

Jul. '11: £166,723 : £168,633 (within 1.13%)

Nov.11: £163,300 : £166,353

 

Month: Gr.-London : 48mo.-MA

Sep.10: £399,019 : £394,102 (within 1.25%)

Nov.11: £444,724 : £409,223

 

They are now headed in different directons. How with the conflict be resolved?

 

(Comment from above):

I think that Blue MA (which is 48 months, and the Red one is 12 mos) is pretty interesting.

It suggests the up Move in the H&N Index has petered out, and we may now be set for a resumption of the Crash.

The Greater London chart has the look of a Final Rally to me, and an eventual slide below the 48d-MA would be very bearish if/when it is broken

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Haliwide NSA is down 2.5% since the November 'top'. Update from the model:

 

ukhousingmodel060112.png

 

Thanks again for the Chart

 

As someone who wants to buy next year I do hope that indicator jump is false or temporary.

 

It will be interesting to see how the EuroZone situation plays out in respect to your indicator and house prices in general.

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Hmm.

What's causing the JUMP?

 

I see nothing here to indicate a rise...

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% :

D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% :

========================================

mom: -2.75% : -2.22 % : -Est.DI : 138.3% / - 1.19% = n/a = : -1.03% : -1.86% : - 1.52%

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Hmm.

What's causing the JUMP?

 

I see nothing here to indicate a rise...

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% :

D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% :

========================================

mom: -2.75% : -2.22 % : -Est.DI : 138.3% / - 1.19% = n/a = : -1.03% : -1.86% : - 1.52%

 

We hit a major low in bearish sentiment and it needed to be washed out. I'm quite happy to see sentiment rise so quickly as I think it's a prerequisite for more falls in price. If the indicator line turns down sharply again from here, we will have a very short spring bounce indeed.

 

My model 'reads between the lines' and attempts to do a better job than us biased humans at reading mass psychology. You might not see any reasons for positive sentiment right now, but the model is telling us that there as been a recent surge in optimism about housing in Q4. I don't believe this is related to any economic fundamentals.

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We hit a major low in bearish sentiment and it needed to be washed out. I'm quite happy to see sentiment rise so quickly as I think it's a prerequisite for more falls in price. If the indicator line turns down sharply again from here, we will have a very short spring bounce indeed.

 

My model 'reads between the lines' and attempts to do a better job than us biased humans at reading mass psychology. You might not see any reasons for positive sentiment right now, but the model is telling us that there as been a recent surge in optimism about housing in Q4. I don't believe this is related to any economic fundamentals.

Okay.

But not much sign of a big bounce yet in Barratt's share price...

This chart...

ukhansmp3.png

 

Also shows a Housing market that could be poised for a big fall.

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We hit a major low in bearish sentiment and it needed to be washed out. I'm quite happy to see sentiment rise so quickly as I think it's a prerequisite for more falls in price. If the indicator line turns down sharply again from here, we will have a very short spring bounce indeed.

 

My model 'reads between the lines' and attempts to do a better job than us biased humans at reading mass psychology. You might not see any reasons for positive sentiment right now, but the model is telling us that there as been a recent surge in optimism about housing in Q4. I don't believe this is related to any economic fundamentals.

 

This December optimism would tie into the a dip in the bearish sentiment ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bearish-investor-sentiment-nears-record-lows

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We hit a major low in bearish sentiment and it needed to be washed out. I'm quite happy to see sentiment rise so quickly as I think it's a prerequisite for more falls in price. If the indicator line turns down sharply again from here, we will have a very short spring bounce indeed.

 

My model 'reads between the lines' and attempts to do a better job than us biased humans at reading mass psychology. You might not see any reasons for positive sentiment right now, but the model is telling us that there as been a recent surge in optimism about housing in Q4. I don't believe this is related to any economic fundamentals.

 

Bulish sentiment could be:

 

Council funded FTB deposits

Mortgage indemnity from government

Newbuy starts in March with 95% mortgages up to £500k for anyone

FSA mortgage review abandoned any thoughts of mortgage restriction

Inflation lower so no prospect at all of interest rate rises

US economy sounding more upbeat

 

Plus more activity recently because stamp duty holiday up to £250k ends in March

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Bulish sentiment could be:

 

Council funded FTB deposits

Mortgage indemnity from government

Newbuy starts in March with 95% mortgages up to £500k for anyone

FSA mortgage review abandoned any thoughts of mortgage restriction

Inflation lower so no prospect at all of interest rate rises

US economy sounding more upbeat

 

Plus more activity recently because stamp duty holiday up to £250k ends in March

 

I Spoke to a Director of Redrow this evening, he tells me sales are way up since New Year?

 

Didn't get chance to queion him as we where interrupted, might get chance to talk to him later this week and find out a bit more!

 

Regards

 

ML

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The great tide of QE is working. Banks know that they are underwritten forever and unlimited, so they carry on with the game. People want to get on with their lives and resign to buy ("borrowing's never been cheaper" etc etc).

 

Record amount of tax revenue suggests there are many doing alright in business/self-employed. But then this is the zombie economy (ie government spending - it hasn't stopped has it? Still loads of nonsense make-work jobs being advertised).

 

We may be forever zombie? What's to stop it? I'd love to know.

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BDEV (Dr B's bellwether) up at 118 now too (after a bad day, down >1% :blink: )

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:BDEV

Check the chart : BDEV-chart

 

It looks toppy here, near 120p

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Check the chart : BDEV-chart

 

It looks toppy here, near 120p

 

I've thought everything has been looking toppy from about 4 weeks back, yet up and up it goes. And down and down has gone my gambling fund :(

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The great tide of QE is working. Banks know that they are underwritten forever and unlimited, so they carry on with the game. People want to get on with their lives and resign to buy ("borrowing's never been cheaper" etc etc).

 

Record amount of tax revenue suggests there are many doing alright in business/self-employed. But then this is the zombie economy (ie government spending - it hasn't stopped has it? Still loads of nonsense make-work jobs being advertised).

 

We may be forever zombie? What's to stop it? I'd love to know.

Good post! What's to stop the zombie continuing forever if they just keep on writing/printing unlimited money? As Greece found out in 2010/2011 probably confidence on behalf of the bond holders will be the key to how it all unravels. When nobody wants to or can buy any more sovereign debt and they'd prefer something more tangible, then I guess that's it! Game over.

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