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SANCTUARIES - "Gold doesn't hedge all risks"

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SANCTUARY - A new theme for GEI

Beyond financial safety, What "sanctuary" do you seek?

=====================================================

 

GEI friends, we have been on a most interesting journey together.

Now it may be time to take it into a new chapter... The Search for Sanctuaries.

 

Sanctuary_Lakes_pic_1.JPG

(This is an image of "Sanctuary Lakes", but is it really "safe" there?)

I want to ask you, what does this word "Sanctuary" mean to you ?

 

Over the past year or so, I have had some soundbites that are popping into my subconscious thoughts. Some of them, you have heard before, and I will now list a few:

 

+ There are some risks that gold does not hedge

 

+ The ultimate investment, is investment in community

 

+ No farm, no future

 

Where are these thoughts coming from? I do not know, but the voice inside that is giving me these thoughts is getting louder, and asking me to address these concerns more directly. Are any of the rest of you having thoughts like this? If so, where have they led you?

 

This brings me to the word: Sanctuary.

 

Here's a basic definition that I liked:

"A sanctuary is a place where people who are in danger from other people can go to be safe"

 

But it goes deeper than this. There are many forms of sanctary:

 

+ Financial sanctuary

+ Physical sanctuary

+ Religious sanctuary

 

These are just a few. If you search for a sanctuary, the meaning of it may change as your search continues.

 

This is the journey that I am on now. Do you want to join me ?

 

If so, please tell me: What is a "Sanctuary" for you?

If you do not want to describe it - Please show us a picture.

 

REVISITING :

2011 Predictions: Part III with Michael Hampton - commoditywatch on December 30th, 2010

MP3 : http://www.podbean.com/podcast-download?b=2516&f=http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/mf/web/z2u3e6/drbubb20111.mp3

/source : http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2010/12/30/2011-predictions-part-iii-with-michael-hampton/

 

Michael Hampton, trader and investor, aka Dr Bubb is back to discuss his outlook for 2011. He sees tightening in China leading to a slowdown in the US ...And of course lower house prices in the UK

 

It is worth a revisit - all the talk of low rates, and China tightening have now proved accurate - although to be fair, there was a rally in Q1 and China and HK did not finally rollover together until later, with a peak in early April. But they did provide a nice early warning of the slide on Wall Street.

 

HSI vs. China etf vs. SPX ... update

ChinHsiSpx.gif.jpg

 

Towards the very end, there is a short bit warning about Earth Changes in 2011:

"Gold doesnt hedge all risks... We are coming into a period of great volatility in our plante... 2011 is going to be the year of dramatic changes in our planet, and people are going to rethink where and how they are going to live."

 

This forecast was made before the March earthquake in Japan.

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SANCTUARY - A new theme for GEI

What does it mean to you ?

==============================

Are any of the rest of you having thoughts like this? If so, where have they led you?

I own my own home. And my home is my sanctuary.

 

So long as the world does not change too much, I should be safe in my home.

 

What changes are you worried about, that make you think you will need something safer than what you have today?

 

As for the photo, I like golf. But might not feel safe next to the lake if there was flooding. Do you expect flooding in that area?

 

21089.jpg - Troy, Michigan

 

Is this where the photo was taken?:

The 18-hole "Sanctuary" course at the Sanctuary Lake facility in Troy, Michigan features 6,554 yards of golf from the longest tees for a par of 71 . The course rating is 71.9 and it has a slope rating of 133. Designed by Douglas Treadwell, the Sanctuary golf course opened in 2004. Jake Pilat manages the course as the Director of Golf.

 

Read More: Sanctuary Lake | Sanctuary Golf Course http://www.golflink.com/golf-courses/course.aspx?course=1679456#ixzz1SyVCGt1x

 

One of the links there says:

"Troy Ranked as Safest City in Michigan."

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I own my own home. And my home is my sanctuary.

So long as the world does not change too much, I should be safe in my home.

What changes are you worried about, that make you think you will need something safer than what you have today?

There are so many.

 

The financial risks are obvious to anyone reading GEI, and I do not need to repeat them. Most of the oft-discussed financial risks can be hedged by getting your asset allocation right - through a move into gold perhaps.

 

PEAKOILFLAT.jpg

 

But if we move into peak oil, then the world may start to look like the Long Emergency world described by JH Kunstler and then the very fabric of society may begin to unravel. Already, we are seeing protests and street riots in places like Egypt and Greece, and governments are being forced out of office. Is it really so hard to imagine this moving towards gasoline rationing, food riots and shortages of food? If so, then the preparations that each of us may need to make will become much more extensive, and we may need to begin to worry about the safety of our families.

 

This may require us to think more deeply about where we live, and how much security we have. I mean physical security, and security of food and energy supply.

 

The time to be thinking about this is before the average person is making precautions, because if you wait, then the COST of making changes will be far higher. If everyone is thinking the same way, then it may be hard to sell your home, and harder still to buy the "safer" one that you prefer.

 

Some will even want to think about even more extreme scenarios where floods, Earthquakes, and even tsunamis hit areas that have not seen these before.

 

tsunami_wave_coming_unexpected.jpg

 

I have a thread in the Fringe Section about the Prophecies of Edgar Cayce, and you may want to look at that.

 

BTW, I chose that photo at random from Google, after doing a search of images associated with the word "Sanctuary." How interesting to find that it depicted a lake near Troy Michigan, only a few miles from where my parents live in Michigan, a place I visited earlier this month.

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I think sanctuary is the right word to describe what's driving many people alienated by the great credit bubble. An economy free from the deception of our monetary financial system, sound stores of wealth allowing the capital formation required to start my own business, a decent place to live, to not be forced to inhale polluted air all day, and so on.

 

At the moment much of this seems unattainable for the average man. But I like Gerald Celente's message when he says that if nothing else, people should be prepared mentally, physically and spiritually. Meditation has been greatly beneficial to my own life. I believe this can give the guy on the street a large degree of sanctuary, if only in a psychological sense. It may also improve his chances of surviving and prospering in adverse conditions.

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At the moment much of this seems unattainable for the average man. But I like Gerald Celente's message when he says that if nothing else, people should be prepared mentally, physically and spiritually. Meditation has been greatly beneficial to my own life. I believe this can give the guy on the street a large degree of sanctuary, if only in a psychological sense. It may also improve his chances of surviving and prospering in adverse conditions.

I agree that meditation is a great tool for coping with stress, and even gaining the insight needed to address unexpected change.

 

In your meditations and when you free up your intuition, what changes do you see coming?

 

I have listened to others, who are psychics and remote viewers, and that has opened my mind to the possibility that coming changes may be far greater than can be discussed in the mainstream press

 

tsunami4.jpg

 

I am not expecting something such as was seen in the film 2012, but I do think that coastlines can change, and I am no longer hungry for a seaview.

 

ESP, Remote Viewing, and the Meaning of Life

by KIM GREENHOUSE on JULY 8, 2011

 

MP3: http://media.blubrry.com/itsrainmakingtime/p/itsrainmakingtime.com/_radioshows/110708Targ.mp3

 

Any serious investigation into the remote viewing phenomenon eventually leads to laser physicist and ESP researcher Russell Targ. He is the author of Mind Reach: Scientists Look at Psychic Ability, The Mind Race: Understanding and Using Psychic Abilities, Miracles of Mind: Exploring Nonlocal Consciousness and Spiritual Healing, etc.

 

Targ says here that the Fukushima power plants were built BELOW markers from 100 years earlier showing the extent of a tsunami at that time. Also, "Everyone has psychic abilities and can do remote viewing," he claims.

 

We live in a world of "black swans", it seems. But some of the disasters may be created by man, and that is adding to the dangers.

 

C-Realm podcast

264: Made in the Schade

460%3E_4693852.jpg

 

http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/player/web/2011-06-29T15_49_55-07_00

 

KMO welcomes researcher Carleton Schade to the C-Realm Podcast to discuss UN population projections for the 21st Century and whether those claims take things like resource depletion and degradation of agricultural land into account. Carleton explains why we are unlikly to find our salvation in the form of a demographic trend toward smaller families with fewer babies but rising consumption, a technological life-preserver, or a return to the economics of perpetual growth. That leaves a shift in human consciousness, as envisioned and described by Jeremy Rifkin, as the only remaining candidate visible on the scene.

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I am not expecting something such as was seen in the film 2012, but I do think that coastlines can change, and I am no longer hungry for a seaview.

 

I can understand your fear but historically humankind has flourished along coastlines and threat of extinction comes from both land and sea under many different guises. Look at suggested early near extinction events such as the Toba eruption. If you believe what the majority of scholars tell us about early successful human migration then close proximity to coastlines are probably the safest 'bet'.

 

Given your fears, especially regarding energy and food, perhaps a santuary should be based more on successful traditional human settlements. I realise the original picture was of course just that, a picture, but it is missing one of the main necessities ......... a defensive position. A defensive wall could be built but then also, looking at the picture it is hard to see where the materials for such an undertaking will come from. You might find yourself trading all your gold for defence.

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Given your fears, especially regarding energy and food, perhaps a santuary should be based more on successful traditional human settlements. I realise the original picture was of course just that, a picture, but it is missing one of the main necessities ......... a defensive position. A defensive wall could be built but then also, looking at the picture it is hard to see where the materials for such an undertaking will come from. You might find yourself trading all your gold for defence.

I suppose a fort or an armory would be ideal, provided it had its own food supply.

 

large_8-11-staten-island-armory.jpg

Staten Island Armory

 

But I do not have the budget for it, so I am seeking more off-the-shelf solutions, like this one: Green Beverly Hills.

 

Greenville SC might also be an acceptable Sanctuary city for some risks.

 

And I have previously looked at: Costa Rica

 

I met someone last night who has been thinking about Sanctuaries for a long time, and he pointed out what he thought might be an obvious flaw with the GBH sanctuary. Can you guess what it was?

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VIEWS OF THE FUTURE

 

Here's one of the most intriguing...

 

Time Traveler Andrew Bisiago claims to have "teleported into the future" into time frame 2045

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8bgGcGyL7Y&NR=1

 

What he found there:

 

"An immaculent industrial park, with no cars, traffic jams, or pollution."

He saw someone move by him on a segway.

 

segway.jpg

 

Complete nonsense? Maybe. But intriguing nonetheless.

 

Here's an earlier and longer interview

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There are also tax-oriented santuaries

 

STRATEGIC LOCATIONS - are we asking the right questions?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJhnS-x5y9Q

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The financial risks are obvious to anyone reading GEI...

 

But if we move into peak oil, then the world may start to look like the Long Emergency world described by JH Kunstler and then the very fabric of society may begin to unravel. Already, we are seeing protests and street riots in places like Egypt and Greece, and governments are being forced out of office. Is it really so hard to imagine this moving towards gasoline rationing, food riots and shortages of food? If so, then the preparations that each of us may need to make will become much more extensive, and we may need to begin to worry about the safety of our families.

I see your point.

As an independent trader, you have more flexibility than most people. You can move and then just switch on your computer in a new location and you are "back in business."

 

For me, and most on GEI, it is not so easy. If I move, I must find a job to support my living costs and my family. This leaves me with only a small amount of flexibility.

 

To be honest, if I cannot do much about the risks that I am facing, I prefer not to think about them much. I expect that most here are in the same predicament. We may read about your search with some interest, but we are not going to follow you, since most here are simply unable to contemplate the move.

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Having read more about the collapse of Argentinia I have changed my idea of moving to the country. The city was the first place in the collapse to gain security again, followed by the suburbs. The worst place to be was the country as you are easy to target and isolated so any invasion takes longer and is more thorough. This is also true of other countries for example South Africa when white farmers were run off their land. Other examples are around.

 

I'd like to have a hybrid that is in suburbia close to the city (can do here where I live). Also this allows for an easier transition for those who need access to schools/medical care/family. I also like how this can help others in a disaster. Sanctury is an aware and prepared community.

 

Aside from that my sanctury has always been a library and one day I would like one in my own home in an upper floor, perhaps a large attic with a window. Anything else we/I can live without.

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We once sold a resi development called The Retreat - they sold very well, and that was 2008-2009.

 

"The Sanctury" would be a good marketing name for an upcoming site given the continuing disturbances out there (also suitable for downsizers).

 

I believe the word is derived from the latin word Sanctus, meaning Holy.

 

Frankly, the day I give up and run off into the woods or to higher ground, will be recognition of an impending and real short to medium term threat. I only see a very long term threat that warrants such evasive action, being at least 30-50 years away.

 

In the meantime I thrive on being within the culturally diverse, vibrant, and rich community, region, and country, with the convenience it offers. The UK has it's problems, but my word there are alot of other far worse places; let's get things in perspective. Yes, there are significant weakness, structural issues etc. (the list is never ending) but to retreat into the wilderness, or a safe-zone strikes me of:

 

a) defeatism

B) believing you can't make a change

c) that we can't improve

d) that the threat to humanity, or a catastrophy, is imminent

e) romanticism

 

In the meantime, I have mouths to feed both at home and work, and friends to spend time with. I am sorry we can't just take off and create a new community though.

 

In the 1960s many, tuned-in and dropped out due to their disolusionment of society, capitalism, consumerism etc. Many started up communes as the logical extension, which were the ultimate sancturies to the crises at that time.

 

"Localism" in this country is a soft type of anti-statism; the phrase has been bastardized by westminster, but fundamentally it really offers in my mind what is a version of a sanctury; a local community is more important than ever, and the individualism of the last 30 years is being reveresd by concepts such as these where ideologues realise that we have gone too far with the experiment. So a sanctury to me is more than 4 walls and a roof, or a gated tele-tubby development; it is a neighbourhood, a community, and even a region. Do your thoughts change if you substitute sanctury for "shelter" (protect or shield from something harmful)?

 

If you read between the lines of your definition of sanctury you are perhaps seeking safety from what? Once you have defined the threat, you can plan the sanctury.

 

My community (network and haven) offers me my sanctury and peace. I don't have true inner peace, of course, but I have safety from what I fear.

 

What do you really fear Bubb, or fear most?

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So I want to ask you, what does this word mean to you ?

 

Over the past year or so, I have had some soundbites that are popping into my subconscious thoughts. Some of them, you have heard before, and I will now list a few:

 

+ There are some risks that gold does not hedge

 

+ The ultimate investment, is investment in community

 

+ No farm, no future

 

...

 

This is the journey that I am on now. Do you want to join me ?

 

If so, please tell me: What is a "Sanctuary" for you?

If you do not want to describe it - Please show us a picture.

 

That would definitely resonate with me. I had a thought last year on the tram to work. It was during a stretch of heavy snow and was dark earlier than usual, so outside you couldn't see much except the artificial street lighting reflecting from the snow as it fell. I had a feeling like a premonition of a nuclear winter scenario where everyone knew what had happened, but continued their normal routine of going to work because they had nothing else they could do.

 

For me a sanctuary would be somewhere to run to if things did start to go wrong. I have somewhere in mind with relations in the country, and my preparations are simply to keep in touch so that I would hopefully be a helpful visitor, and trying to have something useful to offer if it ever did come to that. The word does have religious connotations for me too.

 

Another soundbite I go by is "prepare for the worst, but plan for more of the same". Many, especially of the goldbug persuasion appear convinced that doom is just around the corner, and spend all their resources preparing for a disaster which never occurs. I try and keep a more balanced approach, my preparations would be sadly lacking for a worst case scenario but I think I could get by in most likely scenarios.

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Having read more about the collapse of Argentinia I have changed my idea of moving to the country. The city was the first place in the collapse to gain security again, followed by the suburbs. The worst place to be was the country as you are easy to target and isolated so any invasion takes longer and is more thorough. This is also true of other countries for example South Africa when white farmers were run off their land. Other examples are around.

 

I'd like to have a hybrid that is in suburbia close to the city (can do here where I live). Also this allows for an easier transition for those who need access to schools/medical care/family. I also like how this can help others in a disaster. Sanctury is an aware and prepared community.

 

Aside from that my sanctury has always been a library and one day I would like one in my own home in an upper floor, perhaps a large attic with a window. Anything else we/I can live without.

Cities, or being near cities, will be okay - so long as there is enough found.

 

When Rome fell, there were periods of starvation. And eventually the city emptied out - losing XX% of its population over XX years. (I will try to find the figures, and a reference.) I read somewhere that many Romans VOLUNTEERED to become surfs working the land so they could be fed.

 

JH Kunstler talks about the advantages of small towns in places like "upper state" New York state, far from NYC.

 

"Sanctury is an aware and prepared community" - I like that.

 

In the UK, you might want to take a look at transition towns, which are already preparing for a time when food and agriculture have a larger role in the community, and farmers are trying to become less dependent on expensive oil.

 

Attics? Yes.

I suppose living at least 300 feet above sealevel is a sort of attic. (-ish ?)

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Interest comments, Ecoface.

 

I don't want to "run away", but instead want to "run towards" something different, which is less exposed to many of the risks I am thinking about.

 

In the meantime I thrive on being within the culturally diverse, vibrant, and rich community, region, and country, with the convenience it offers. The UK has it's problems, but my word there are alot of other far worse places; let's get things in perspective. Yes, there are significant weakness, structural issues etc. (the list is never ending) but to retreat into the wilderness, or a safe-zone strikes me of:

 

a) defeatism

B) believing you can't make a change

c) that we can't improve

d) that the threat to humanity, or a catastrophy, is imminent

e) romanticism

 

In the meantime, I have mouths to feed both at home and work, and friends to spend time with. I am sorry we can't just take off and create a new community though.

 

In the 1960s many, tuned-in and dropped out due to their disolusionment of society, capitalism, consumerism etc. Many started up communes as the logical extension, which were the ultimate sancturies to the crises at that time.

 

"Localism" in this country is a soft type of anti-statism; the phrase has been bastardized by westminster, but fundamentally it really offers in my mind what is a version of a sanctury; a local community is more important than ever, and the individualism of the last 30 years is being reveresd by concepts such as these where ideologues realise that we have gone too far with the experiment. So a sanctury to me is more than 4 walls and a roof, or a gated tele-tubby development; it is a neighbourhood, a community, and even a region. Do your thoughts change if you substitute sanctury for "shelter" (protect or shield from something harmful)?

 

If you read between the lines of your definition of sanctury you are perhaps seeking safety from what? Once you have defined the threat, you can plan the sanctury.

 

My community (network and haven) offers me my sanctury and peace. I don't have true inner peace, of course, but I have safety from what I fear.

There are jobs in the places that I am looking at, and interesting people too.

 

As an example, yesterday I opened an email sent to me personally from THE MAYOR, of Greenville, which said in part: ( smart card )

 

"We work hard to create the special, walkable urban environment downtown--

and it's only getting better and better. Thank you for enjoying it.

The city assumed operations of the regional bus system a few years ago

and immediately put in place an array of improvements (to a small

system!)....new buses, renovated terminal (in progress), etc etc. You

will be glad to know that the credit card and change machines are on

the way!! The current system is ridiculous."

 

I understand he gets things done, and I would take some comfort in living in a place with leadership like that.

 

My community (network and haven) offers me my sanctury and peace. I don't have true inner peace, of course, but I have safety from what I fear.

 

What do you really fear Bubb, or fear most?

CHANGE - which has been unanticipated by the majority, and so it is hugely disruptive.

 

The Global Financial Crisis was easily predictable (indeed, GEI was talking about a financial tsunami many months before it hit) but most were unprepared. The US and the UK wound up with banks that needed bailing out, and many people who lost much of their wealth. One form of preparation I made was moving to Hong Kong, because I thought the UK was poorly prepared, and had poor leadership. In some respects, the UK has pulled through the crisis better than I expected. But I do think some of the biggest financial risks have not been faced yet in the UK.

 

Of particular concern is overvalued property in London. I expect a big slide, which will be worse than in 2007-2009, and will devastate UK banks, requiring another bailout and THIS TIME the banks will be forced to slim down. I expect The City to lose many, many high paying jobs. That is likely to touch off a vicious cycle- as lower incomes hit property prices, and lower property prices hit bank balance sheets. The City will need to shrink back to a small size which is more sustainable. It will look less like a big casino, and more like a sector that serves the economy, rather than just the bankers themselves.

 

Living in London means that you will be living outside the eye of the hurricane this time. The full force of the storm will hit London, and not bypass it like it did in 2008-9. Voters will simply not stand for a rescue which leaves these dangerous institutions, and their myopic and greedy management, intact.

 

I also worry about Earth changes (you can read one scary forecast here, in post #43.) After what we saw in Japan in March, I take this seriously. If we see more severe Earth changes within 2011, I will take these predictions more seriously. If we so no more changes in 2011, my fears will begin to fade... slowly.

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Have you seen this? What are they running from ?

 

denver-int-airport-eden-volcano.jpg

 

It is from a Mural at the Denver Int'l airport - What do you suppose is the purpose of this image?

 

There are other strange images there too. Why do you suppose they were commissioned? By whom?

(Answer: New World Airport Commission - What's that?)

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What I FEAR will not be good for London and UK homeowners

 

...I do think some of the biggest financial risks have not been faced yet in the UK.

 

Of particular concern is overvalued property in London. I expect a big slide, which will be worse than in 2007-2009, and will devastate UK banks, requiring another bailout and THIS TIME the banks will be forced to slim down. I expect The City to lose many, many high paying jobs. That is likely to touch off a vicious cycle- as lower incomes hit property prices, and lower property prices hit bank balance sheets. The City will need to shrink back to a small size which is more sustainable. It will look less like a big casino, and more like a sector that serves the economy, rather than just the bankers themselves.

 

Living in London means that you will be living outside the eye of the hurricane this time. The full force of the storm will hit London, and not bypass it like it did in 2008-9. Voters will simply not stand for a rescue which leaves these dangerous institutions, and their myopic and greedy management, intact.

I am not the only one seeing this...

 

"Courtesy of massive and unsustainable public borrowing, the British public has been shielded thus far from the pain of recession. This exercise in damage limitation was necessarily-time limited. What comes next is going to be unpleasant.

. . .

Britain borrowed £2.18 for every £1 of growth. Continued high borrowing would be nothing more than a pain-deferral exercise leading inevitably to a fullblown economic crisis. As Britain’s debt-driven economic misalignment unravels, property prices can be expected to fall sharply, unemployment to remain high, sterling to remain weak, and real incomes to continue to fall as inflation continues to out-pace earnings.

 

An early objective for government should be to put an end to the state of national denial over the true condition of the economy, and to undercut the delusory sense of individual and collective ‘entitlement’ that was fostered in the Labour years. Britain has no automatic entitlement to high living standards or a welfare state. Rather, these benefits have to be earned, not borrowed."

 

/MORE: The Tim Morgan Report #7:

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/Tim_Morgan_Report_007.pdf

 

Nowhere in London will be safe from the expected debacle. Selling and renting may be a first step. But "getting the hell out" to a Transition Town might prove to be a far safer response.

 

If you work in The City, your job may not survive anyway, and getting established somewhere "safer" outside London may prove to be a sensible move in the long run.

 

Do you really think that the average Londoner's present way of life is sustainable?

 

Certainly, those who rely on government handouts have much to fear.

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THE MYTH that the UK is a Safe Haven may soon be eviscerated

 

/MORE: The Tim Morgan Report #7:

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/Tim_Morgan_Report_007.pdf

 

Nowhere in London will be safe from the expected debacle. Selling and renting may be a first step. But "getting the hell out" to a Transition Town might prove to be a far safer response.

 

If you work in The City, your job may not survive anyway, and getting established somewhere "safer" may prove to be a sensible move in the long run.

 

Do you really think that the average Londoner's present way of life is sustainable?

 

Certainly, those who rely on government handouts have much to fear.

MORE bullet points from the Tim Morgan Report...

 

+ By combining public and private borrowings, that the UK has, since 2003, borrowed an annual average of 11.2% of GDP. When the Labour administration ramped the fiscal deficit from 2.4% of GDP in 2007-08 to 11.2% in 2009-10, all that government was really doing was

replacing private borrowings, which had dried up overnight.

 

+ A combination of high debt and low growth means that the UK is a fully fledged member of Europe’s debtshackled periphery...it can be only a matter of time before the markets and the rating agencies start to put serious upwards pressure on British debt yields. When that happens, sterling will be very much at risk (and property prices too)

 

Compare: Britain's 10 year Bond interest rates, with ............................ Greece's 10 year Bond yields

UKBonds.jpg ... GreekBonds.png.jpg

 

( "The reality is that Britain has more in common with Greece than with Germany." )

 

+ The conduct of the economy under ‘Team Brown’ was a tale of grotesque incompetence which began in hubris and ended in blame-shifting. Just as pertinently, where the future outlook is concerned, New Labour peddled a spurious moral absolutism and created an almost surreal sense of individual and collective entitlement and it is this blend of moralism and entitlement which is the largest single stumbling-block on any road to economic viability.

 

(Before the UK can recover, those entitlement benefits will have to be eviscerated... And the asset prices that rely on entitlements - like BTL housing - will be eviscerated with them.)

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Look and Contemplate...

 

These are the top 51 Skylines in the World

 

Part 2:

 

Notice how many of them are on the sea - nearly all.

 

What would happen if there was a global tsunami, with waves of 50 -100 feet or more.

How many of these huge cities would survive intact?

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Revolutionary Climate Predictions

 

by Kim Greenhouse on July 30, 2011

MP3: http://media.blubrry.com/itsrainmakingtime/p/itsrainmakingtime.com/_radioshows/110730Corbyn.mp3

 

Piers Corbyn, the owner of Weather Action, is an astrophysicist and meteorologist renowned for predicting weather with great precision up to a year in advance. His proprietary and highly advanced weather prediction methodology diverges from standard meteorology by incorporating solar and lunar activity as well as jet stream and Gulf Stream activity. Very few understand particle and magnetic activity of the sun and the moon like Dr. Corbyn. Using this system, he has achieved an 85% accuracy in his forecasts, and has been recognized for predicting extreme weather events and floods across the globe. In fact, many farmers have come to depend on Dr. Corbyn’s predictions in order to plan ahead! In this interview, we discuss carbon dioxide, ice age cycles, and global cooling, and explore important distinctions in the way we understand climate.

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From the "Smell the Napalm" thread...

 

GOLD DOESN'T HEDGE ALL RISKS

 

I will politely reiterate my question from a previous post,which was ignored

Good dr in your opinion

Which risks does gold hedge?

Which risks does gold not hedge?

 

Gold can only hedge financial risks effectively - ie the risk that a popular fiat currency loses purchasing power.

 

If you use gold for money, you take on various Risks, including:

 

+ A storage risk

+ An access risk (your gold may be stored somewhere, & you cannot get access when needed)

+ A transportation risk - it is not as easy to carry or move as fiat currencies

+ An "acceptability risk" (try and buy food at a restaurant with gold)

 

Imagine this scenario...

===================

(1)

You are on holiday in the Caribbean, and you hear that an earthquake and tsunami have just hit Jersey in the Channel Islands. The bank where most of your gold is stored is now underwater.

 

Your gold (in storage in the Jersey bank) is not going to be very useful to you then. You breathe a sigh of relief that you have kept 25% of your gold in a bank in London.

 

cutcaster-photo-100452447-old-spanish-village.jpg

(2)

Fortunately, you also have a "bolt hole" in mountains of Spain. And you are worried that an earthquake and tsunami may hit the UK also. So you decide to fly to Spain, instead of the UK. As you get off the aircraft, you learn that an earthquake has disrupted communications with Britain, and parts of Central London have been hit by a freak flood. You thank God that you chose to fly to Spain.

 

(3)

10% of your wealth is stored in a bank vault in Spain, and 1% is buried in the backyard of your Spanish "bolthole" property. We you arrive in Spain, you find that none of your UK wealth can be transferred to Spain. It is stuck in the UK until you can find a way to get access to it.

 

(4)

When you arrive in your Spanish mountain village, you discover that the bank were your Spanish assets are stored has had a run on it. The vaults are closed until further notice. Inflation is skyrocketing and the Euros you are carrying barely pay for the taxi to your Spanish home.

 

(5)

That night, you dine on some of the food you have stored. The next morning you get up early, before 6 am and start digging your gold cache up from the underground vault where you have kept it. As you get to it, and pull it out of the ground, you turn around and find that one of your neighbors, the one you really hate, is standing behind you with a gun and an big smile. You know he will be asking that you hand over your gold.

 

WHAT GOOD WAS GOLD in this scenario ?

 

Might you have been better off to have invested time and effort to become a recognised and vital member of the local community in the Spanish mountains ?

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sorry to be picky Dr. B (and i do agree that there is no risk-free asset) but , major earthquakes in the British isles are as rare as hens teeth, also i would have thought that the shallow sand bars that constitute the English channel do not really have the capacity for major tsunami's

 

my own 2ps worth - managing risk is a personal affair, where everyone's circumstance is different, e.g. if you have a lot of good ag. land, the need for other hedges is less crucial (but still essential), whilst if you are property/land free, your approach will be different

Until now, they have been rare. But that does not mean they will not happen.

 

The same guy (Edgar Cayce) who spoke about increasing earthquakes and floods in the new millennium, and Japan "sinking into the sea", described (or even produced) maps which show much of present coastlines under water. Psychic Lori Toye has produced her own future maps, and they show much of the UK underwater, including London.

 

edgarcayce_001.gif

See Cayce thread:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9597

 

Future Map discussion:

http://planetxtownhall.com/index.php?topic=2407.0

 

I am not saying this will happen, but for me: the risk went way up after the Japan earthquake and tsunami, and will ramp up further still if we see a major quake along the New Madrid fault in the US within this year. On the other hand, if such second quake does not happen by the end of 2011, then I will worry less about this risk.

 

In any case, this was merely an example of one type of risk that is not hedging by owning Gold. You cannot carry it around with you, so you have to store it someplace - that's the main point. And difficulty of transporting gold is one of the important reasons that our society uses paper money and digital money.

 

Most here would agree that a gold-backed currency, where there is strong confidence in the backing would be a good thing. And if such a currency existed, many people would sell their gold and use the gold-backed currency with preference. They know that physical gold has many headaches associated with it.

 

Too many posters on this thread seem to think that Gold is the answer to every question. Like fiat, you cannot take it with you to the afterlife. In fact, there are many places you cannot take it, and use it, where you can use fiat.

 

You have ignored my other important point, that where gold fails to hedge many risks, investing in your family or your community may hedge some of those extreme risks far more effectively.

 

(I don't know why the Sanctuaries thread is so unpopular - For me, it is discussing some of the most important risk that I worry about these days. I have been hearing and repeating the gold arguments for over a decade, and i find them rather boring, when I see big changes happening in our world, and even bigger changes on the horizon.)

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In part also from the 'napalm' thread

How about a "running commentary" on how ideas of sanctuary change? Haha

 

:) A la face-twit? Wouldn't that be riveting....not!

 

Maybe you are comfortable where you are

 

Very, within the limitations of a body, which isn't age 20 any longer

 

and feel no greater need for safety

 

The way you phrase it has me smiling. Need?

It's 23.20 & all I can hear are cicadas, owls, & my heart beating. I don't hear the first two during the day. I eat breakfast by a pond, watching the fountain, fish & frogs, & accompanied by two cats who were born here. The area is stunningly beautiful (say visitors), & very few know about it.

I live in a Cossack-free, peaceful, earthquake & fire risk zone in a bankrupt banana republic. The next big earthquake is due, & until the rain a few days ago, the fire risk was high.

Last week I was reflecting that a much younger body would be a neat addition. Then I fell down a terrace or two & lay in a heap with my head inches from a large rock. Cut, battered & bruised, I checked to see if all of me was functioning, then asked Richard to find my shoes. He couldn't. Yesterday after clearing some of the undergrowth, he found them. One of them was wedged between rocks.

Sanctuary dear Bubb? You tell me. I just live in the moment :)

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"Sanctuary dear Bubb? You tell me. I just live in the moment"

Yeah.

That's the great thing about a Sanctuary, you are allowed to "live in the moment".

And this sounds truly beautiful:

 

Need?

It's 23.20 & all I can hear are cicadas, owls, & my heart beating. I don't hear the first two during the day. I eat breakfast by a pond, watching the fountain, fish & frogs, & accompanied by two cats who were born here. The area is stunningly beautiful (say visitors), & very few know about it.

I live in a Cossack-free, peaceful, earthquake & fire risk zone in a bankrupt banana republic. The next big earthquake is due, & until the rain a few days ago, the fire risk was high.

Last week I was reflecting that a much younger body would be a neat addition. Then I fell down a terrace or two & lay in a heap with my head inches from a large rock. Cut, battered & bruised, I checked to see if all of me was functioning, then asked Richard to find my shoes. He couldn't. Yesterday after clearing some of the undergrowth, he found them. One of them was wedged between rocks.

Sanctuary dear Bubb? You tell me. I just live in the moment :)

 

Not like this poor guy:

Niger_2.jpg

 

Is it truly a "peaceful, earthquake & fire risk zone in a bankrupt banana republic"

Maybe.

 

But then I read about historical events like this one:

 

lisbon-earthquake-1755-granger.jpg

 

The 1755 Lisbon earthquake, also known as the Great Lisbon Earthquake, was a megathrust earthquake that took place on Saturday 1 November 1755, at around 9:40 in the morning.[1] The earthquake was followed by fires and a tsunami, which caused near-total destruction of Lisbon in the Kingdom of Portugal, and adjoining areas. Seismologists today estimate the Lisbon earthquake had a magnitude in the range 8.5–9.0 on the moment magnitude scale,[2] with an epicenter in the Atlantic Ocean about 200 km (120 mi) west-southwest of Cape St. Vincent. Estimates place the death toll in Lisbon alone between 10,000 and 100,000 people,[3] making it one of the deadliest earthquakes in history.

 

The earthquake accentuated political tensions in the Kingdom of Portugal and profoundly disrupted the country's eighteenth-century colonial ambitions. The event was widely discussed and dwelt upon by European Enlightenment philosophers, and inspired major developments in theodicy and in the philosophy of the sublime. As the first earthquake studied scientifically for its effects over a large area, it led to the birth of modern seismology and earthquake engineering.

/source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake

 

Surprises do happen. And we may all be traveling together into a high-risk zone.

I hope I am wrong. And I do not want to flee from where I am. However, I might be happy to move to some other place that I would be happier to be. So if no "events" come, I will still be happy where I am... as you seem to be now.

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Gold has always been the emergency go-to form of money. The first thing you take when fleeing your home/country/land. Just ask any of the people who fled from various areas in World War II.

 

There are stories of people fleeing with gold stitched into jackets, gold bars hanging from both sides etc etc. These were people fleeing for their lives.

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