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bitbigt

To hell with preserving wealth and restraint...

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...would that work here

Orosur Mining Inc. - ISA eligible gold miner (OMI)

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=quote&symbol=OMI

(chat at http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=21534419)?

You need to find one with traded options contracts - Normally they will be US or Canadian listed

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P.S. DrBubb the above table is from a 24k post, is there any addition that can be put into ip board to enable tables to be created as they are very useful for getting figures across? I modified the standard editor on 24k to allow tables to be created within posts. Have a look at the IP board mods and see if there is anything, I could help you implement it if you like.

Nice table.

What's the software called?

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Nice table.

What's the software called?

It is just a modification to the standard phpBB editor called ABBC3 (Advanced BBCode v3). It adds a load of cool stuff to the editor and makes it much more useful. I am sure that it probably wouldn't be able to be used on ip board, but there may well be a similar thing that is possible for IP Board.

 

Have check on the IP Board mods site and search for editor enhancing mods.

 

This is what the editor looks like on 24k after the ABBC3 mod, you can see it looks much more like word now and has added loads of extra buttons for creating the board code. You can actually add additional buttons if you think they are needed, I recently added the speaker icon which gives an inline MP3 player.

 

20110610-rr6xg6pxj4h6fge4ag65yqph9.jpg

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Every generation suffers its own follies.

The generation of the Great Depression learned to save and hated debt - consequently they paid dearly during the inflation after WW2 - especially those who were still around in the 70’s - their frugal savings, that they had been taught to have by the Greatest Depression itself, where completely wiped out - so much for that learning experience.

 

Our generation has learned NOT to save and instead spend money and invest for borrowed money - on leverage.

The markets have been synchronized and basically every investment made profit, as prices go up for everything in an inflationary environment.

Except Precious metals - they did very poorly for long, which was the best argument to buy them - that no one wanted them.

 

If everyone does the same it works - for a while.

Mans greatest fear is not to be wrong - but to be alone.

We are Herd animals wether we admit it or not.

 

You will hear the same music, find the same fashions, and be able to eat the same McDonalds hamburgers everywhere.

We live in the same houses, we eat the same food, and we suffer from the same universal flimflams.

No longer do people know what really matters, except by reference to the public spectacle.

Joe Six-pack gets excited about an investment when everyone else is excited about it - which is precisely the time not to buy.

 

The nature of public markets and media practically guarantees that, occasionally, markets become mobs too.

One has to be impressed at how the markets, the financial industry, and the free press all work together in faultless harmony to deceive investors and bring them to do just the wrong thing at precisely the wrong time.

 

Why is it that loosing your life savings should be less painful if you have lost it in the company of a million other losers?

Apparently it is not so much bad luck we want to avoid as being on our own.

Economic theories don’t account for this.

 

Basically what I am saying is that when the herd moves in one direction it moves the market.

I believe in cycle theory (NOT Elliotwave) as human character never changes, and that is what moves the cycles.

The Major cycles in the stock market seem to last about 30 to 40 years.

Buy into a Bull market after it has gotten away, but before it has gotten very far.

Stick with it until it reaches an end.

Buy Low, Sell High ...- NOT Buy High and hope to sell even higher.

 

Sounds simple enough - it gets far more complicated once human emotion gets involved though.

 

Ask yourself - what Bull markets do You see now.

I personally only see Precious Metals - it is the only Bull market left, so all the advice on this thread of being in PM’s is very sound.

 

No Bull market without serious corrections though - if You happened to have read some of my posts on 24Knews You will know that I expect a serious correction this summer.

This assumption is basically based on common sense, cycle theory and Arnold Schwarznegger movies.

 

At the moment I am heavily long Silver - mostly because I bought it ridiculously cheap.

I have lighted up about 10% though - half before the correction, when we practically touched 50 - half on the rebound from the lows after the correction.

I have completely sold all of my miners as I fear for their performance if my predictions of a severe summer correction comes true.

I have a few short positions on the Nasdaq

and worst of all - I have a short position on Gold :blink: .

 

You wrote:

SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME HOW TO GET RICH, BY STRATEGIC INVESTING GIVEN ONE OR OTHER PREDICTIONS OF THE FUTURE.

 

Okay, I’ll bite:

The Dollar is going to make a serious rally, which has just begun.

This will get enforced by the ending of QE2 this month - everybody expects QE3, but it can’t be justified if the market seems to be doing okay - then it would be like admitting that it is only a program to fatten banksters and buy US government debt.

So we are going to see one heck of a collapse - maybe not as severe as 2008, but it will be a summer/autumn to remember.

After its bad enough to justify QE3, QE3 will come to the rescue (to fatten Banksters and buy government debt).

 

The way to make profit would be to be long Dollar and short stocks.

Then You would wait for the Precious Metals to come down hard (which I believe they will), and then You would shift your profits into Precious Metals at what will likely be the last great buying opportunity for the remainder of this bull market.

 

Of course this has NOTHING to do with investment advice, but if one has enough Vodka and watches enough reruns of Schwarznegger movies the above scenario makes perfect sense.

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Wow - so the general approach from you all right now is to hold PMs, and sit on cash. So you're loosing 5% straight off due to inflation.

 

...

 

So surely this all screams that major inflation is coming, and so the one thing you don't want to be doing is sitting on cash. Instead, get into inflation proof assets - carefully chosen houses (take on a big mortgage, but only if you are sure you could handle 15% IRs for a year or so in a few years time), PMs, inflation linked bonds (NS&I), and borrow to start up businesses that will fill the gaps that the coming turmoil will create.

 

Overall, my basic conclusion from reactions on this thread so far is ...none of you want to get rich, you're just seeking ways to play safe. Please ask yourselves honestly, wouldn't you like to be a bit more daring :)

 

Great thread bigtbigt.

 

SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME HOW TO GET RICH, BY STRATEGIC INVESTING GIVEN ONE OR OTHER PREDICTIONS OF THE FUTURE.

 

Well I've gone down the road of get rich slowly but with a high chance of success. My strategy is based around strategic asset allocations with tactical movements based on asset valuations. For example using the PE10 for equities. This results in me currently being underweight equities across the world.

 

I also do not trade (as I've proven I'm terrible at it) and look for the type of asset I want but with the lowest fees and taxes both in the buying and holding but also in the selling.

 

My strategy has always worked on the principle that the powers that be in the world will always choose inflation as it's the easy way out that the masses just accept and gives the best chance of reelection/sustaining power.

 

My total wealth today is tied up as follows:

 

Cash 9.2%. This is readily accessible for emergencies both for personal issues but also if we should get a big market adjustment for reinvestment in that asset class. Unfortunately it is being eaten by inflation and taxes.

Bonds 23.5%. This is both index linked gilts but also "bonds" in the form of NS&I Index Linked Savings Certificates. The goal here is for my wealth to be preserved in real inflation adjusted terms. Yes I'm sure people will say the RPI is fudged but it's the best I've been able to find.

Property 9.6%. This is UK and EU commercial property. The EU stuff is held in France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Finland, Austria and a little over 1% in Italy. No Ireland, Greece or Portugal.

Gold 5.1%. Reasons are obvious so nothing to say.

International equity 12.6%. This is 40% US, 40% EU ex UK and 20% Japan. Low fee index trackers where possible. Currently underweight due to tactical allocation against a strategic target of 15%.

Emerging markets 5.1%. Again all low fee index trackers.

Australian equity 18.3%. A commodities play. Again low fee trackers. Currently underweight due to tactical allocation against a strategic target of 20.5%.

UK equity 16.7%. Again low fee trackers. Currently underweight due to tactical allocation against a strategic target of 20.5%.

 

This slow and steady approach has returned me a CAGR of 6.1% since the start of 2008 which is nothing startling against other GEI members but with a heavy amount of new contributions is adding up quickly.

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Every generation suffers its own follies.

The generation of the Great Depression learned to save and hated debt - consequently they paid dearly during the inflation after WW2 - especially those who were still around in the 70’s - their frugal savings, that they had been taught to have by the Greatest Depression itself, where completely wiped out - so much for that learning experience.

 

Our generation has learned NOT to save and instead spend money and invest for borrowed money - on leverage.

The markets have been synchronized and basically every investment made profit, as prices go up for everything in an inflationary environment.

Except Precious metals - they did very poorly for long, which was the best argument to buy them - that no one wanted them.

 

If everyone does the same it works - for a while.

Mans greatest fear is not to be wrong - but to be alone.

We are Herd animals wether we admit it or not.

 

 

Hooloovoo.

I see you are in Russia,

 

But the way you write makes me think that you are English or possibly American.

 

I am wondering what took you to Russia, and whether you see the world in a new light since you arrived there?

For instance, do Russians use debt less that Brits or Americans? Do they try to avoid borrowing?

 

If you think I am prying, then please ignore this.

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Personally, I agree the stock market and house prices *should* fall in nominal terms in a fair world, but that won't be allowed to happen! They'll only fall in real terms (but less so than cash!).

 

 

What a completely head up your ar*e thing to say! House prices have fallen massively in the US, Japan and in many countries across europe. So why were house prices falls in the US 'allowed to happen'? House prices in the UK have already fallen big time in terms of gold and virtually all currencies except GB£. I don't know where house prices in the UK are going but if they are overvalued then nothing in the world will stop them from falling eventually. When the average person can no longer afford the average house then prices will fall.

 

Ditto for stock prices.

 

I cannot understand this blinkered, moronic viewpoint that house prices in the UK are somehow immune to the laws of gravity. There is always some idiot who claims that its different this time. Have you not seen what's been happening to property markets around the world?

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What a completely head up your ar*e thing to say! House prices have fallen massively in the US, Japan and in many countries across europe. So why were house prices falls in the US 'allowed to happen'? House prices in the UK have already fallen big time in terms of gold and virtually all currencies except GB£. I don't know where house prices in the UK are going but if they are overvalued then nothing in the world will stop them from falling eventually. When the average person can no longer afford the average house then prices will fall.

Ditto for stock prices.

That pre-supposes the rate of owner occupancy remains roughly constant.

I cannot understand this blinkered, moronic viewpoint that house prices in the UK are somehow immune to the laws of gravity. There is always some idiot who claims that its different this time. Have you not seen what's been happening to property markets around the world?

The over-allocation of money into real-estate caused a glut of over-supply elsewhere. Draconian planning restrictions stopped that happening (to the same extent) in the UK, focussing more of that easy money onto the existing housing stock which made our HPI even more extreme. The glut of oversupply is normally what pricks the financial bubble causing a catastrophic collapse. So we have perhaps a more extreme bubble but not much of a pin, how does that play out? I'm not sure, but a slower deflation of the bubble rather than a catastrophic pop may be possible. I think the situation in the UK is different... but probably not sufficiently different to expect a completely different outcome.

 

As an aside - how feral is this thread if you cannot even say arse?

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The over-allocation of money into real-estate caused a glut of over-supply elsewhere. Draconian planning restrictions stopped that happening (to the same extent) in the UK, focussing more of that easy money onto the existing housing stock which made our HPI even more extreme. The glut of oversupply is normally what pricks the financial bubble causing a catastrophic collapse. So we have perhaps a more extreme bubble but not much of a pin, how does that play out? I'm not sure, but a slower deflation of the bubble rather than a catastrophic pop may be possible. I think the situation in the UK is different... but probably not sufficiently different to expect a completely different outcome.

 

 

This is the exact same bullshit that was being spouted in the US and Ireland right up until the bubble burst. You'll find that once the bubble bursts all those apartments currently rented by foreign workers who come to the UK to feed the demand of the bubble market will suddenly be vacent. There is a massive supply problem in Japan but that hasn't stopped house prices falling there for the last 20 years. There are massive supply roblems in cities all over south america and prices haven't changed. Read that 18 year cycle article and you will see just how much of what you are saying conforms to classic bubble sentiment.

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Great a wild west thread, back to the way things were in the beginning. cool.gif

 

I like this thread also.

 

Am just amazed we got this far without anyone saying (Whisper it) .................. silver

 

Just an observation.

 

 

 

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I like this thread also.

Am just amazed we got this far without anyone saying (Whisper it) .................. silver

Careful.

Or you will get this thread moved to Fringe. (Haha)

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Read that 18 year cycle article and you will see just how much of what you are saying conforms to classic bubble sentiment.

 

Could you point me to this please. I didn't spot it when reading this thread. Sorry if it is here....

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Great a wild west thread, back to the way things were in the beginning. cool.gif

 

I think what is going on is a massive transfer of wealth from the common man to the bankers. The good news is there is one easy way everyone can stick it back to them, by taking themselves out of the fiat currency system that they are using to enslave us. I have rid myself of all debt and converted all my saved fiat into precious metals and gold & silver stocks. I do in a way think of it as wealth preservation but also think it will increase my buying powers substantially, as it has been doing for the last 5 years especially from buying the right stocks.

Well, its at least a bold strategy :)

 

Hats off to you for self confidence

 

But how the hell can you be so cock sure that PMs will keep going up, and how watertight and definite is your exit strategy? I note you say "my plan eventually is..." , "out of metals to buy another property", "I think house prices will continue down...below 100oz gold or 1500 oz silver", "I am not sure I will wait that long", "may keep in the metals and buy a house on a mortgage before then". Unless you get a bit more difinitive, is there not a danger that you could find events start running ahead of you. :o

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Read that 18 year cycle article

Fred Harrison's 14 years up 4 down cycle?

that hasn't stopped house prices falling there for the last 20 years.

Was it "different that time"?

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Every generation suffers its own follies....

 

I've gone down the road of get rich slowly but with a high chance of success....

 

 

Thanks Hooloovoo and GenghisKhan for your insightful big picture analysis and investment strategy posts.

 

I am pleased to note that you both generally approach and see things much the same way as I do, i.e.,

- the big trends are already in motion, and all else is noise

- markets reflect psychology of the masses, who are being led along and manipulated by TPTB for their own purposes

- "TPTB in the world will always choose inflation as it's the easy way out"

 

SO HOW TO USE THIS PERSPECTIVE TO GET RICH...?

 

Hooloovoo feels PMs are the only remaining bull market yet to be run with, but expects a big pullback quite soon now. I've been 'medium weight' PMs for the last 2 years awaiting that pullback as I also think it c/should happen, but it won't until inflation falls and IRs rise. As more time passes I start to think that dis-inflationary wave might not happen, because the global money supply never fell back as I had expected it to. ...and no its actually rising again!

 

Hooloovoo also expects a dollar rally that could be bought in to. I( go with that also, but 60:40 think the Yanks will find a reason to keep artifically stimulating their economy and undermining the dollar. This is what they wanyt to do, they just want it to fall at a rte that gets out of control. Hence they are talking up the currency just now.

 

GenghisKhan is being more nuanced and easing around asset classes as the evidence guides him/her. Several nice angles are suggested that I'd like to hear more about...

- Bonds: what "index linked gilts" are you referring to or are generally available?

- Property: how did you arrange to buy property in so many countries? I though some places (e.g. Switzerland) allowed only their own nationals to buy property in their country.

- Emerging market tracker: can you say which are good, what counterparty risks they carry, and what indices they actully follow?

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Excellent - we've generated some real passion on the thread (fortunately still no rudeness:)) No big surprise this was achieved via the good old "house prices" debate.

 

And things like "head up ar*e", "arse" (yep, you're not banned for that igglepiggle), "blinkered, moronic viewpoint", "idiot", and even "silver" have hardly caused a stir!

 

BTW - if my head is up my arse, its because I'm checking my gold stash which needs to be kept somewhere out of government sight!

 

But to the house price discussion....

 

First, I must apologise: my comments were sloppy (perhaps lubricated by staff still stuck to my lips after checking my gold), and I should have made it clear I've been referring only to UK house prices.

 

So if we're gonna get into the house price deate, lets please consider the world in all its diversity, and not assume that what happens in the US must happen everywhere else.

 

- Switzerland and Germany did not have a HPC (for similar reasons), and since the Euro is rather weak german pproperty represents extremely good value today

 

- UK currency has fallen by 30% relative to the USD, so in real terms house prices have already crashed and can stay stable here in nominal terms as the currency weaklens further

 

- Japanese folk stopped buying stuff after their market crashed (e.g., stocks or houses) but instead their safe their money by buying their own government bonds, and so house and stock prices have indeed been coming down for 20 years [this will soon change thogh!]. This is completely different to the UK where everyone wants to buy a house.

 

- UK regions and types of houses are also vary varied, and quality houses in good areas will not fall far if at all in nominal terms (as shown by the evidence of the last few years). And anyway, if they do come down by 10% or so over the next few years, that's a one week move for the stockmarket on quite regular occasions, and even a one minute move for some individual stocks. So 'crashes' are relative in scale and likelihood, with house prices being one of your safest bets, esecially over a 10 year time frame.

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...or HUMAN GREED ??!!

 

So whether its need or greed, what does that point you to chris_ct in terms of putting your money to work?

 

 

 

Water. Food. Energy. Shelter. Geriatric Care.

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BTW - if my head is up my arse, its because I'm checking my gold stash which needs to be kept somewhere out of government sight!

I'm sure it won't be long before they put security cameras up there. Instead of "Reds under the beds" it'll be "Terrorists in every crack"!

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...

GenghisKhan is being more nuanced and easing around asset classes as the evidence guides him/her. Several nice angles are suggested that I'd like to hear more about...

- Bonds: what "index linked gilts" are you referring to or are generally available?

- Property: how did you arrange to buy property in so many countries? I though some places (e.g. Switzerland) allowed only their own nationals to buy property in their country.

- Emerging market tracker: can you say which are good, what counterparty risks they carry, and what indices they actully follow?

 

I hold "index linked gilts" both in my pension and outside. Inside the pension as you would expect its clunky and I am charged far higher fees than I would like but it's the best I can do for now. "Where are the customers yachts" springs to mind. It's simply an Index Linked Gilt fund. The top 10 holdings of it are currently:

- 1¼% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2017 11.5%

- 1¼% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2027 10.6%

- 2½% Index-linked Treasury Stock 2024 7.3%

- 1¼% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2055 6.8%

- 0½% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2050 6.6%

- 2% Index-linked Treasury Stock 2035 6.4%

- 0 5/8% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2042 6.2%

- 2½% Index-linked Treasury Stock 2016 6.0%

- 1 7/8% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2022 6.0%

- 2½% Index-linked Treasury Stock 2020 4.4%

 

With time I hope to move to a SIPP where I think I can get similar for much lower fees.

 

Outside of the pension it's far easier as I have been accruing NS&I Index Linked Savings Certificates for some time now and have just bought again as I detailed here http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.com/2011/06/i-have-my-index-inked-savings.html

 

The EU property is simply a low cost ETF in the form of iShares IPRP. They are charging me a TER of 0.4% per annum for the privilege.

 

Emerging market tracker. I was holding db xTrackers XMEM but am now holding iShares IEEM within an ISA. I made the shift for the buy/sell spreads and the small trading fees on a relatively large sum so I felt it worth it. As a UK ETF buyer Lyxor's LEME is also out there. Within the blogging community there has been a few discussions on this and Monevator here http://monevator.com/2011/05/10/etf-risk-plan/ talked about the risks of synthetic vs physical ETF's. I believe IEEM is a physical ETF where XMEM is synthetic. This is one of the reasons I am today happy I hold IEEM. Slightly more expensive but I hope less counterparty risk. (Please don't quote me on that as counterparty risk looks to be a minefield.) Index followed is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Current countries are:

- China 17.27%

- Brazil 15.21%

- S Korea 14.59%

- Taiwan 11.81%

- S Africa 7.56%

- India 6.89%

- Russia 6.72%

- Mexico 4.15%

- Malaysia 3.22%

- Others 12.59%

 

For anyone who is interested in understanding more about my strategy plus the datasets I have compiled and track (FTSE100 PE10, ASX200 PE10, S&P500 PE10, Real Gold in GBP, UK Savings Interest Rates etc etc) I regularly blog about it. Blog link is in my signature.

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Water. Food. Energy. Shelter. Geriatric Care.

Agreed. But how to play thse themes?

 

Buying the core resources in impractical, and buying ETF/ETCs in them is problematic as they are seldom underpinned by real assets and often follow market expectations rather than the spot price. Plus there are rollover costs when contango exists.

 

Companies developing or supplying in these areas don't usually have anything unique, and so as demand grows the number of companies grows rather than existing companies getting much bigger and richer. And where good investment opportunities do exist in these domains, the market has already bid up those prices to discount any real advantage those companies might have.

 

These areas would, however, be good ones in which to set up your own company, since customers would probably not be hard to find!

 

Buying land is another angle that seems wise, as the supply is fixed! Anyone know any good ways to do this?

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Bob Moriarty suggests cash may be the best investment for the next 6 months...

 

Excerpt from The Ticking Timebomb

 

It’s heresy for me to suggest it but the very best investment for the next six months might well be cash. The kind of dirty filthy cash that you can shove under your mattress and use when the system comes to a grinding halt. Gold may well be the currency of choice to rebuild the system but to get through the chaos that is coming, I think you want the kind of cash you can hold and spend.

 

There sure seems to be a lot of pessimism about - a lot of boats tied up in harbor awaiting the storm to hit..

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Bob Moriarty suggests cash may be the best investment for the next 6 months...

Excerpt from The Ticking Timebomb

Jim Rogers said in Bloomberg: I am buying the US dollar

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There sure seems to be a lot of pessimism about - a lot of boats tied up in harbor awaiting the storm to hit..

 

the last time there was this much pessimism about the S&P was at 666, and its doubled since then. Maybe its time to buy...

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And things like "head up ar*e", "arse" (yep, you're not banned for that igglepiggle), "blinkered, moronic viewpoint", "idiot", and even "silver" have hardly caused a stir!

 

Guilty!(except for the silver bit) but i hope the comments were taken in the 'friendly feral' spirit they were intended :D

 

I still think you are wrong to believe that UK house prices can levitate above everything that's happening in the real economy. i don't follow the property market in the UK but I can tell you that if the average house costs more than 5 or 6 times the average industrial wage it is overpriced. And if a house costs more than 16 times the annual rental income it can generate then it is overpriced. Everything else is just noise.

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