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drbubb

UK House Prices - The Long, Long Wait

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The time to become a contrarian buyer is when the selling volume is dwindling, but the price is still low.

Then you have a better chance of owning it ... when the force is with you.

 

BDEV isnt at that point yet.

 

Meantime, we have seen property prices trade up on light volume, and we know there is now a huge overhang relative to property buying demand. That's the sort of time you want to be a seller, or at least avoid buying.

 

No doubt, this winter will be tough.

 

Though I think BDEV should bottom sometime within the next 3 to 4 months.

 

If they hit 60-70, I will buy. If they look like bottoming at 70-80, I might still dip in a toe.

 

UK gov, so far, seems more intent on helping builders than FTB'ers.

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UK gov, so far, seems more intent on helping builders than FTB'ers.

Is that a viable policy?

How much longer?

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Is that a viable policy?

How much longer?

More viable (cheaper) than giving money directly to FTB’ers.

 

I think they could keep it up for quite a long while too. As a proportion of spending it's a relatively cheap option.

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More viable (cheaper) than giving money directly to FTB’ers.

I think they could keep it up for quite a long while too. As a proportion of spending it's a relatively cheap option.

politically, it will not fly easily now

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politically, it will not fly easily now

I guess it depends how they do it, they are already subsidising both BDEV and FTB's with one of their deposit schemes.

 

I can see this sort of thing being extended, especially if the SHTF as it looks like it might this winter.

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I guess it depends how they do it, they are already subsidising both BDEV and FTB's with one of their deposit schemes.

 

I can see this sort of thing being extended, especially if the SHTF as it looks like it might this winter.

The plate spinners will be made redundant shortly then a crash beyond spectacular will en-sue faster than you will be able to say johndoe,it will take your breath away.RBS or Lloyds or maybe both will be blighty's lehmans or should i say lemmings.The UK is carrying more TOXIC crap than FUKISHIMA.PERIOD.!!!

If you think any of the current posturing charade and plate spinning has got anything to do with saving a few nieve brain dead pwooperty spivs or genune home owners then YOU ARE NOT SEEING THE BIGGER PICTURE.

Of course their is always the chance that Rothchilds and sons have turned over a new leaf and exited the family business of pumping and dumping everything and everyone into oblivion and then of course you might have a point. :lol:

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The plate spinners will be made redundant shortly then a crash beyond spectacular will en-sue faster than you will be able to say johndoe,it will take your breath away.RBS or Lloyds or maybe both will be blighty's lehmans or should i say lemmings.The UK is carrying more TOXIC crap than FUKISHIMA.PERIOD.!!!

If you think any of the current posturing charade and plate spinning has got anything to do with saving a few nieve brain dead pwooperty spivs or genune home owners then YOU ARE NOT SEEING THE BIGGER PICTURE.

Of course their is always the chance that Rothchilds and sons have turned over a new leaf and exited the family business of pumping and dumping everything and everyone into oblivion and then of course you might have a point. :lol:

 

On the contrary my old chum.

 

With the recent downgrades in US growth (1.9% down to 0.4% for Q1 FFS) and consumer spending almost stagnant over there, coupled with the EU problems raising their ugly head mush sooner than was expected (or hoped), I have to say things are looking a tad more grim than they were just a few weeks back, when I thought it was going to be a grim winter.

 

When the UK is called a "safe haven" even I begin to worry (a little ;) ).

 

Then again, I will probably remortgage soon, on a nice, very long term fix, so potentially lovely timing. (Think I might even increase the amount and add the extra to the investment fund).

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On the contrary my old chum.

 

With the recent downgrades in US growth (1.9% down to 0.4% for Q1 FFS) and consumer spending almost stagnant over there, coupled with the EU problems raising their ugly head mush sooner than was expected (or hoped), I have to say things are looking a tad more grim than they were just a few weeks back, when I thought it was going to be a grim winter.

 

When the UK is called a "safe haven" even I begin to worry (a little ;) ).

 

Then again, I will probably remortgage soon, on a nice, very long term fix, so potentially lovely timing. (Think I might even increase the amount and add the extra to the investment fund).

MORTGAGE. :lol: :lol:

Those WONDERFUL WORDS OF ART by the WONDERFUL WIZARDS OF OZ.

Real English translation.............

 

"Then again ,i will probably renew my DEATH GRIP soon,on a disastarous,even longer term than my own death,so potentially passing my DEATH GRIP onto my children,so potentially fantastic timing for Rothschilds & sons who can tighten their grip evenmore on me and my children as well."

You are right about 1 thing in each and every post you make JD "YOU CANT BEAT THE SYSTEM" because you clearly dont understand it,which is exactly how they want it to be so you make statements like..............

 

(Think I might even increase the amount and add the extra to the investment fund).

How any body who realy understands what is coming down the pipe would be looking to further encumber themselves with MORE and LONGER dated Debt beggers belief.!!!

 

GOOD LUCK AND IN BUCKETFULLS my mate.

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MORTGAGE. :lol: :lol:

Those WONDERFUL WORDS OF ART by the WONDERFUL WIZARDS OF OZ.

Real English translation.............

 

"Then again ,i will probably renew my DEATH GRIP soon,on a disastarous,even longer term than my own death,so potentially passing my DEATH GRIP onto my children,so potentially fantastic timing for Rothschilds & sons who can tighten their grip evenmore on me and my children as well."

You are right about 1 thing in each and every post you make JD "YOU CANT BEAT THE SYSTEM" because you clearly dont understand it,which is exactly how they want it to be so you make statements like..............

 

(Think I might even increase the amount and add the extra to the investment fund).

How any body who realy understands what is coming down the pipe would be looking to further encumber themselves with MORE and LONGER dated Debt beggers belief.!!!

 

GOOD LUCK AND IN BUCKETFULLS my mate.

 

Think again me old mukka,

 

I have a mortgage as it is a cheap (very cheap) way to fund my investments.

 

If need be, I could pay it off (although this would shrink my investment fund and back up fund to practically zero, which I would be reluctant to do right now looking at just what might be coming down the pipeline).

 

Look at the sig, you can't beat the system, but you can use it to your advantage ;)

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Think again me old mukka,

 

I have a mortgage as it is a cheap (very cheap) way to fund my investments.

 

If need be, I could pay it off (although this would shrink my investment fund and back up fund to practically zero, which I would be reluctant to do right now looking at just what might be coming down the pipeline).

 

Look at the sig, you can't beat the system, but you can use it to your advantage ;)

I always remember a conversation with a very successful scrap metal dealer,he wanted to buy some plant for his yard and he said he NEVER borrowed money it was against his gypsy roots and upbringing,but he said he thought he was missing out on the NEW way of modern business and monetary systems.So he approached his accountant and asked his opinion,the accountant told him,

"THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS CHEAP BORROWED MONEY,THE ONLY CHEAP MONEY IS YOUR OWN."

If you have got debt saying you have got investments is an OXYMORON.Pay down your debt and then you will potentially be able to invest,if you have anything left to invest.

You are obviously looking at the low repayments on your DEATH GRIP and think that your hhmmnn Investments will provide a higher yield and you will pocket the difference,but factor in the DEbasement of the money(inflation) and the high risk strategy that your employing and you are PISSING IN THE WIND.

NO RISK.... DEBT FREE.... IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE!!!!

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You are obviously looking at the low repayments on your DEATH GRIP and think that your hhmmnn Investments will provide a higher yield and you will pocket the difference,but factor in the DEbasement of the money(inflation) and the high risk strategy that your employing and you are PISSING IN THE WIND.

Ah but that's not quite true is it, as there is such a thing a cheap borrowed money right now and if the debt interest is fixed, the currency debasement doesn't matter.

 

Simple example as stated before

 

Borrow for 5 years fixed at 3.8%

Put in simple fixed rate saving account at 4.5% for 5 years

Result = profit

All debasement does is reduce the relative amount of profit, but it's still profit.

 

NO RISK.... DEBT FREE.... IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE!!!!

 

Damn right, but as I also said, it's a back up fund too. Who knows if I'll have a job in 6 months time. I sleep better at night with the situation as it is.

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The kind of exchanges between Fitkid and John Doe really says a lot about todays internet forum culture.

Fitkid won't just have his say and let John Doe have his say and let the reader decide for themselves.

Instead what you get is Fitkid mildly / moderately attacking John Doe who calmly lets the attack pass him by.

Eventually it will boil over or someone will just stop posting.

I imagine the light touch of a moderator might help but most of these are unpaid and/or too light touch?

I really enjoy learning from the wealth of knowledge posters bring to this site especially if both sides can say their piece without being attacked.

Come on Fitkid just stick to telling it like you see it and resist goading too much. Please.

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Come on Fitkid just stick to telling it like you see it and resist goading too much. Please.

Well said

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Come on Fitkid just stick to telling it like you see it and resist goading too much. Please.

 

Unfortunately FK cannot do that as JD goading is written into GEI's ancient charter.

 

Deep down I'm sure FK agrees with JD - borrow to the max, buy gold & silver, - but he isn't allowed to type so.

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The kind of exchanges between Fitkid and John Doe really says a lot about todays internet forum culture.

Fitkid won't just have his say and let John Doe have his say and let the reader decide for themselves.

Instead what you get is Fitkid mildly / moderately attacking John Doe who calmly lets the attack pass him by.

Eventually it will boil over or someone will just stop posting.

I imagine the light touch of a moderator might help but most of these are unpaid and/or too light touch?

I really enjoy learning from the wealth of knowledge posters bring to this site especially if both sides can say their piece without being attacked.

Come on Fitkid just stick to telling it like you see it and resist goading too much. Please.

Point noted,

But i am not goading JD i am totally disagreeing with what he says and post what i see as the reality of the debacle we are all facing.My words might not resonate with JD but at least i get his potential thoughts embracing a fuller picture than he might have considered prior and moi likewise from JD's post's.If you think i or anyone could stop JD posting you are kidding he is prolific on GEI and i enjoy and am sure he enjoys are exchanges.If you want to see a utopian information scource read a blog or start one, then you will have peace and harmony in your own isolated thoughts.If you want to see expressed a wide diverse thought pool where at times concepts ideas thoughts etc are debated sometimes in a heated manner then welcome to the real world.

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Thanks for the posts SP & Dr B. (and those who have PM'd previously about other posters).

 

To be fair though, after a few initial misunderstandings, the Kid and I (and a few other posters) do have an understanding and our posts (and digs) to one another, while sometimes polar opposites, are given (and taken) in good humour.

 

I also enjoy many of the threads where we actually agree with one another (it does happen now and again).

 

However, the same cannot be said about one or two other posters whose constant digs carry malicious undertones. I have decided that it's best not to converse with them.

 

Unfortunately FK cannot do that as JD goading is written into GEI's ancient charter.

 

Not sure about the GEI ancient character LB (I have been posting here for many years now), but yes it seems to have gone that way a bit recently.

 

I suppose I have to expect it a bit by being just slightly bearish rather than an end of the world type bear :)

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BDEV rallied on very thin volumn and fell and much stronger selling. Check the charts. Banks were also hammered.

And we had a strong 252 MA cross which is part of what the bellweather is about.

The Carnage continues... : BDEV-intraday

 

BDEV-intraAug.gif.jpg

 

The elephant-in-the-room (Inflated prices) may soon be on the prowl.

 

4597009-elephant-step-on-house-isolaten-on-white.jpg

 

BDEV : 87.45 / Change: -3.70 // Percent Change: -4.06%

Open: 92.70 / High: 92.80 / Low: 87.00 // Volume:4,332,997

 

I wonder if the reckless folks who bought homes recently, understand that their housing dreams

may be eviscerated - in the sense that they may soon slide into Negative Equity.

 

Where are the other warnings coming from now ??*

Are we headed for a big August or September surprise in the UK housing indices?

Why are so few now talking about that (strong?) possibility?

 

== == ==

 

*we did get warnings back in 2007:

 

House price crash warning

 

on 6th December 2007

 

The housing market may be heading for a sharp fall, a leading expert will warn today. Economist David Miles says property prices will probably drop dramatically in the next few years.

 

The collapse will come when the rapid rise in prices starts to tail off, according to Mr Miles, who is a former adviser to Gordon Brown.

 

Demand has been heavily influenced by the expectation that prices will continue to rise quickly. When the big annual rises fail to materialise, 'significant' falls are likely.

'A sharp fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the relatively near future, though it could yet be one to two years away,' his report concludes.

 

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1604590/House-price-crash-warning.html#ixzz1U3lMbplo

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The kind of exchanges between Fitkid and John Doe really says a lot about todays internet forum culture.

Fitkid won't just have his say and let John Doe have his say and let the reader decide for themselves.

Instead what you get is Fitkid mildly / moderately attacking John Doe who calmly lets the attack pass him by.

Eventually it will boil over or someone will just stop posting.

I imagine the light touch of a moderator might help but most of these are unpaid and/or too light touch?

I really enjoy learning from the wealth of knowledge posters bring to this site especially if both sides can say their piece without being attacked.

Come on Fitkid just stick to telling it like you see it and resist goading too much. Please.

 

I don't agree with this analysis. John Doe's posts are subtle attempts to influence readers who are beginning to wake up to the inherent unwholesomeness of the system and steer them back into active participation. The cunning underlying message is "You can't beat the system" - but I can help you take advantage of it and climb over others for your own material gain (and don't feel bad about it because you can donate some money to Africa).

 

Fitkid is calling out this disgraceful behaviour - but is never malicious. I have done so as well but hardly have the energy available at the moment to do so particularly effectively.

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I don't agree with this analysis. John Doe's posts are subtle attempts to influence readers who are beginning to wake up to the inherent unwholesomeness of the system and steer them back into active participation. The cunning underlying message is "You can't beat the system" - but I can help you take advantage of it and climb over others for your own material gain (and don't feel bad about it because you can donate some money to Africa).

 

:lol::lol:

 

Dear oh dear. Do you honestly believe this :blink:

 

Coming from the poster who says it's wrong for a mass murderer to suffer, yet in the same breath will say it's absolutely fine to sit by and watch innocent women & children starve to death instead of donating a poxy few quid, and then will have the audacity to condemn those who, even in a little way, try to help.

 

From the poster who stated that they believed (and posted the Jihad-watch article) the blatant anti Muslim propaganda that all rapes in Norway over a 5 year period were committed by Muslims was actually true (twice).

 

When if you had actually sat and thought for 2 minutes about what had happened to all the Norwegian rapists over that period, as you were asked at the time, you would have realised it was obviously rubbish.

 

What a strange mix you are.

 

I would not bother with you in person, so I ask you again, please stop bothering me here.

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The Builder Carnage continues another day...

 

(1)

BDEV: 77.40 Change: -6.50 // Percent Change: -7.75%

Open: 79.90 / High: 80.00 / Low: 75.15 // Volume: 545,725

 

Low of the last 12 months was: 69.00p

 

(2)

PSN : 385.00 Change: -21.50 // Percent Change: -5.29%

Open: 397.90 / High: 400.30 / Low: 385.00 // Volume: 83,043

 

Low of the last 12 months was: 335.90p

== == ==

 

Halifax: Halifax July HPI: 0.3% mom -2.6% yoy

 

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said: "House prices in the three months to July were 0.5% higher than in the previous three months. This was the first increase in this key measure of underlying price movements for 14 months. Prices rose for the third consecutive month, increasing by 0.3% in July.

 

This just shows that Halifax figures are lagging.

And Builder shares are a leading indicator, even ahead of Rightmove's index.

 

Anyone have any feeling of what is happen "on the ground"?

 

 

Meantime: the stunning cluelessness continues on the Mickey Mouse site

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Halifax +0.3% July.

 

Builders shares have slid, but lets face it they're not exactly the only stocks that have dropped today.

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Halifax +0.3% July.

Builders shares have slid, but lets face it they're not exactly the only stocks that have dropped today.

Sure.

But the slide in Builder shares is FAR DEEPER than the drop in FTSE.

This is meaningful, since key support levels for BDEV and PSN have been breeched.

 

 

== ==

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 153,700 - 0.1% / 167,208 = n/a = 160,519 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :

J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 153,550 - 0.1% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,049 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :

Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 153,400 - 0.1% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% :

=====================================

mom: - 1.58% : - 1.36% : Est.DI: 141.9% / +0.31% = n/a = :+0.57% :+0.65% : + 0.70%

 

Halifax seems to have modified its seasonally adjusted figures once again

 

Here's the most recent version...

 

 

J'10 168,390

Feb 166,928

Mar 168,435

Apr 168,593

May 167,207

Jun 165,686

Jul 167,497

Aug 168,124

Sep 161,974

Oct 164,949

Nov 164,622

Dec 162,803

J'11 164,145

Feb 162,697

Mar 162,712

Apr 160,393

May 161,039

Jun 163,430

Jul 163,981

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Sure.

But the slide in Builder shares is FAR DEEPER than the drop in FTSE.

This is meaningful, since key support levels for BDEV and PSN have been breeched.

 

Maybe, maybe not. The banks have been hit just as hard (if not harder).

 

Just a scare that the lending will seize up again.

 

As soon as the ECB pulls it’s finger out, things will cool off again.

 

(Just depends how long that takes of course :unsure: )

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Sure.

But the slide in Builder shares is FAR DEEPER than the drop in FTSE.

This is meaningful, since key support levels for BDEV and PSN have been breeched.

 

 

Sorry to disagree, but it may not be meaningful; most stocks have a higher beta than the market, at least in terms of the housing market. When the market falls individual stocks fall more. I would not read too much into the builders' stocks now. I agree they were fantastic warning for calling the big turn, but now a big fall in the builders might only feed through to a soft patch for house prices in general. All I see happening if stocks are routed is that interest rates will be kept on hold into next summer and prices might soften up a little like we saw H2/2010 but all consistent with "3-5 years of stagnation" rather than apocalyse now.

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