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Pixel8r

Why speculative trading is the downfall of the modern world

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Trading is of benefit to society only when there is a matching of wants and needs in a productive environment. That condition no longer exists and so the 'trading' consists of pointless gambling - which if it were done in an isolated bubble, would gradually die out but the casino is kept going by sucking wealth from what is left of the real economy in order to constantly top-up the players at the table.

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Trading is of benefit to society only when there is a matching of wants and needs in a productive environment. That condition no longer exists and so the 'trading' consists of pointless gambling - which if it were done in an isolated bubble, would gradually die out but the casino is kept going by sucking wealth from what is left of the real economy in order to constantly top-up the players at the table.

 

AS you say Schaublin ,trading serves a purpose ie one party swaps one thing(be it money or otherwise) with another party, to their mutual benefit.

What Dr Bubb does is speculation, and to my mind it has only one purpose and that is to enrich Dr Bubb. I am not against him for this as it is in this world a completely legitimate activity, however no one should be under the illusion that it has any positive social consequences,unless of course the winnings are used for charitable purposes as I am sure the good Dr does.

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Pix,

 

I think you SIMPLY DON'T GET IT.

 

Trading isn't the problem, it is Federal Reserve policy, and ultra-low rates.

 

They rob savers, and force people into speculation and short term trading.

 

Change monetary policy, raise rates to realistic levels, and you would change trading and investing behaviour.

 

You would also "put the kabash" on the precious metals trade, that you seem to favor so much.

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AS you say Schaublin ,trading serves a purpose ie one party swaps one thing(be it money or otherwise) with another party, to their mutual benefit.

What Dr Bubb does is speculation, and to my mind it has only one purpose and that is to enrich Dr Bubb. I am not against him for this as it is in this world a completely legitimate activity, however no one should be under the illusion that it has any positive social consequences,unless of course the winnings are used for charitable purposes as I am sure the good Dr does.

 

I do much more that short term speculation.

 

In fact, most of my profits come from taking part in placements, and structuring investments.

 

This activity helps to build companies, and as you may or may not know I am a director of an AIM-listed company

with a Market Cap of about GBP 100 million. The first GBP 100,000 the company raised outside of friends and family,

came from a GBP100,000 mortgage I took on my property.

 

I still do this type of investing, but regard it as riskier now (in a time of ultralow rates, and high mining valuations) than it was 10 years or so ago.

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Pix,

 

I think you SIMPLY DON'T GET IT.

 

Trading isn't the problem, it is Federal Reserve policy, and ultra-low rates.

 

They rob savers, and force people into speculation and short term trading.

 

Change monetary policy, raise rates to realistic levels, and you would change trading and investing behaviour.

 

You would also "put the kabash" on the precious metals trade, that you seem to favor so much.

WHY DO YOU PRESUME THAT I DON'T GET IT? I understand that a lot of the problems currently are down to CB policy, but you have to realise that the people who make the decisions in the CB's have been placed there with the bankers money so they swing things in favour of what the bankers want. The power does not lie with those in power it lies with those that placed them there, the banking elite.

 

What is gained by High Frequency Trading? They bring about the flash crashes, so they do not help with providing liquidity or price discovery to the market, they are just more manipulation of the markets by the big banks so that they can steal money out of investors pockets. What HFT does is bring more volatility to the market, which only of benefit to traders and not real investors or the companies that need the finance. The flash crashes that they engineer they are fully aware of so they can react and steal money at lightening speed.

 

The world is now run by non elected central banks and their policies, with central bankers being placed in position by the elite.

 

Rates being raised is a deflationists wet dream which isn't going to happen. Raising rates would make assets like housing become even more unaffordable and would also make a lot of those who have already purchased go into default and bring about another round of banking bailouts. I also understand that when real interest rates move back from negative to positive that it will kill the precious metals bull runs, but that is many years off yet.

 

As rates cannot be raised currently the tax level should be raised for short term trading, which I believe would go part of the way to sorting the mess we are in.

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I am thinking about starting a poll for this topic and am trying to word the questions and answers;

 

Do you think short term trading is of benefit to the economy as a whole?

 

1. Yes - Short-term trading provides liquidity and price discovery to the market.

2. No - It only benefits in the long-run the banking elite and enables them to take more control of the masses.

 

If anyone thinks of other possible answers please type them here, we could make this a multiple answer poll.

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WHY DO YOU PRESUME THAT I DON'T GET IT? I understand that a lot of the problems currently are down to CB policy, but you have to realise that the people who make the decisions in the CB's have been placed there with the bankers money so they swing things in favour of what the bankers want. The power does not lie with those in power it lies with those that placed them there, the banking elite.

 

What is gained by High Frequency Trading? They bring about the flash crashes, so they do not help with providing liquidity or price discovery to the market, they are just more manipulation of the markets by the big banks so that they can steal money out of investors pockets. What HFT does is bring more volatility to the market, which only of benefit to traders and not real investors or the companies that need the finance. The flash crashes that they engineer they are fully aware of so they can react and steal money at lightening speed.

 

The world is now run by non elected central banks and their policies, with central bankers being placed in position by the elite.

 

Rates being raised is a deflationists wet dream which isn't going to happen. Raising rates would make assets like housing become even more unaffordable and would also make a lot of those who have already purchased go into default and bring about another round of banking bailouts. I also understand that when real interest rates move back from negative to positive that it will kill the precious metals bull runs, but that is many years off yet.

 

As rates cannot be raised currently the tax level should be raised for short term trading, which I believe would go part of the way to sorting the mess we are in.

The point is:

 

We are FORCED into speculative investing (& trading) behaviour by Fed policy.

 

You (& others here) reckon that Gold & Silver are good long term "investments", but I think you will agree that is only true so long as the Fed retains its current reckless monetary policy.

 

What killed the Gold and Silver rallies in 1980?

 

Partly it was margin rises. But it was also Paul Volckers "get tough on inflation" monetary policy.

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The point is:

 

We are FORCED into speculative investing (& trading) behaviour by Fed policy.

 

You (& others here) reckon that Gold & Silver are good long term "investments", but I think you will agree that is only true so long as the Fed retains its current reckless monetary policy.

 

What killed the Gold and Silver rallies in 1980?

 

Partly it was margin rises. But it was also Paul Volckers "get tough on inflation" monetary policy.

Even if I sold tomorrow because the fed suddenly decided to move interest rates to 12% I would still have been holding the metals for over 4 years which is longterm. I don't see that happening and think I actually will be holding them for at least another 3 or more years.

 

They are trying to force you into speculative trading so they can rob you via their flash crashes and HFT trades. You don't need to you only need to buy and hold the right things and not panic when the flash crashes happen, just buy more.

 

What killed the 1980 bull run was the fact that they made the futures market 'sell only' in silver and that meant loads of liquidation which carried over to gold, along with raising rates to combat inflation. The same can't happen now as the futures market is not the main market, it is now physical and worldwide, also they can't raise rates. All they can do is keep rates at historically low rates and QE to buy their own increasing debt.

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You (& others here) reckon that Gold & Silver are good long term "investments", but I think you will agree that is only true so long as the Fed retains its current reckless monetary policy.

I also don't see gold and silver as 'investments' I see them as age old currencies that can't be debased the same way that fiat currencies can be. It is not that gold and silver are going up, it is that all the fiat currencies are in a race to the bottom between each other and are losing purchasing power. Gold and silver are also escalating in purchasing power because they are in short supply and have been heavily manipulated, so in effect the increase in purchasing power is being supplied by the banks that have been manipulating them for years, justice really.

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I also don't see gold and silver as 'investments' I see them as age old currencies that can't be debased the same way that fiat currencies can be. It is not that gold and silver are going up, it is that all the fiat currencies are in a race to the bottom between each other and are losing purchasing power. Gold and silver are also escalating in purchasing power because they are in short supply and have been heavily manipulated, so in effect the increase in purchasing power is being supplied by the banks that have been manipulating them for years, justice really.

Put Paul Volcker back in charge of monetary policy, and see how long the Precious metals rally will last

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Put Paul Volcker back in charge of monetary policy, and see how long the Precious metals rally will last

That would be good for me as it would mean rates would be raised and house prices would fall drastically. I would convert my bullion back into cash and earn interest while I watched the housing market go into freefall. As long as it would also transfer to the UK rates, but as I have said above that is a deflationists wet dream and ain't going to happen.

 

It would also mean an end to all this short-term trading that you think everyone is being forced into.

 

 

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Great thread!

 

On the difference between speculating and investing these days I'd like to quote Doug Casey (see here): "There really aren't investments anymore. With trillions of newly created currency units floating around the world, things will become very chaotic and unpredictable shortly. It's very hard to invest using any kind of Graham-and-Dodd methodology when things are that chaotic. Whether you like it or not, you're going to be forced to be a speculator in the years to come. A speculator is somebody who tries to capitalize on politically caused distortions in the marketplace. There wouldn't be many speculators, or many of those distortions in the marketplace, if we lived in a free-market society. But we don't."

 

So, from that point of view I understand where DrBubb is coming from.

 

On the other hand, despite the massive distortions in the monetary system (FIAT currencies, fractional reserve system and its long-term implications) there is still a true economy, i.e. there are people and companies that actually make things in order to improve the quality of life on this planet. I work for a company that works with a base chemical the price of which seems directly linked to the price of crude oil, and I can definitely say that it does not help if one set of speculators drives and chases up the price of a commodity (in our case it is crude but it does not matter which, Mexican people that live on wheat tortillas may have a similar view on this) to ridiculous highs, and then another set of speculators hammers it back down again. Yes, it is a sign of the times but does one have to jump on every bandwagon?

 

As for gold, I hold a decent amount of it as well. I don't see it as an investment either. Quite the opposite: gold does not produce anything! It's being dug out of the ground wasting energy, and then it's being buried again by somebody else, wasting energy again (in order to loosely quote Warren Buffet). In that sense, I'm a speculator myself as I don't consider the gold I hold as an investment. I do, however, expect it at least to preserve my purchasing power in this time of depreciating FIAT currencies, and I also feel 'forced' to hold some due to circumstances.

 

To summarise: I accept that trading, mercantilism and investing improve the quality of life on this planet but I fail to see where buying and selling derivatives (i.e. useless paper) improve anything beyond a trader's account balance. On the contrary, it only exascerbates the problem...

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Thanks for the Casey quote - I agree completely with Doug.

 

 

On the other hand, despite the massive distortions in the monetary system (FIAT currencies, fractional reserve system and its long-term implications) there is still a true economy, i.e. there are people and companies that actually make things in order to improve the quality of life on this planet. I work for a company that works with a base chemical the price of which seems directly linked to the price of crude oil, and I can definitely say that it does not help if one set of speculators drives and chases up the price of a commodity (in our case it is crude but it does not matter which, Mexican people that live on wheat tortillas may have a similar view on this) to ridiculous highs, and then another set of speculators hammers it back down again. Yes, it is a sign of the times but does one have to jump on every bandwagon?

I am not sure how "true" the economy is.

 

It is fraught with distortions and malinvestments, and so it is tough to see what is true, and what is not.

 

People used to think that housing demand was a "true" cyclical driver of the economy. But when Greenspan moved to ultralow rates after the TMT bust, to help "grow" the economy - In fact, he was creating a false economy which grew like a cancer around the building of homes for speculative buyers.

 

In the same way, China has increased its money supply at a huge rate (albeit at higher interest rates) and encouraged massive investment in railways, homes, and highways- things that may or may not be needed in the future. This demand has spurred a global commodities boom, and encouraged people to put their "savings" into gold and silver. If China suddenly went to reverse, which could happen at any time, we amy find that all commodity prices would come tumbling down. Listen to Nicole Foss in her recent interview on FS - she paints a grim picture.

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Great thread!

 

On the difference between speculating and investing these days I'd like to quote Doug Casey (see here): "There really aren't investments anymore. With trillions of newly created currency units floating around the world, things will become very chaotic and unpredictable shortly. It's very hard to invest using any kind of Graham-and-Dodd methodology when things are that chaotic. Whether you like it or not, you're going to be forced to be a speculator in the years to come. A speculator is somebody who tries to capitalize on politically caused distortions in the marketplace. There wouldn't be many speculators, or many of those distortions in the marketplace, if we lived in a free-market society. But we don't."

 

So, from that point of view I understand where DrBubb is coming from.

 

On the other hand, despite the massive distortions in the monetary system (FIAT currencies, fractional reserve system and its long-term implications) there is still a true economy, i.e. there are people and companies that actually make things in order to improve the quality of life on this planet. I work for a company that works with a base chemical the price of which seems directly linked to the price of crude oil, and I can definitely say that it does not help if one set of speculators drives and chases up the price of a commodity (in our case it is crude but it does not matter which, Mexican people that live on wheat tortillas may have a similar view on this) to ridiculous highs, and then another set of speculators hammers it back down again. Yes, it is a sign of the times but does one have to jump on every bandwagon?

 

As for gold, I hold a decent amount of it as well. I don't see it as an investment either. Quite the opposite: gold does not produce anything! It's being dug out of the ground wasting energy, and then it's being buried again by somebody else, wasting energy again (in order to loosely quote Warren Buffet). In that sense, I'm a speculator myself as I don't consider the gold I hold as an investment. I do, however, expect it at least to preserve my purchasing power in this time of depreciating FIAT currencies, and I also feel 'forced' to hold some due to circumstances.

 

To summarise: I accept that trading, mercantilism and investing improve the quality of life on this planet but I fail to see where buying and selling derivatives (i.e. useless paper) improve anything beyond a trader's account balance. On the contrary, it only exascerbates the problem...

 

Great post...but I have a thought. Say the politicians who cause these distortions in the market and the market players who capitalise on them, are in league? The politicians allow profits to flow to the players; the players(corporations or unions) fund the political parties. Could this be so?

 

I hope not or we don't have a chance in hell. Hmmmmmmm? :huh:

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Great post...but I have a thought. Say the politicians who cause these distortions in the market and the market players who capitalise on them, are in league? The politicians allow profits to flow to the players; the players(corporations or unions) fund the political parties. Could this be so?

 

I hope not or we don't have a chance in hell. Hmmmmmmm? :huh:

 

It is so. Go down the rabbit hole - past the will o the wisp politicians and other irrelevancies until the issuer of 'legal tender' is located.

 

Permit me to issue and control the money of the nation and I care not who makes its laws. — Mayer Amsched Rothchild

 

Since I entered politics, I have chiefly had men’s views confided to me privately. Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the Field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, that they better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it. — President Woodrow Wilson, 1913

 

If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. — Thomas Jefferson

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I am not trying to project a certain moral outlook, I am just try to explore an idea that has been kicking around in my head for a while.

 

I understand you're not projecting a moral system here, but you're certainly making a moral claim regarding the activity of trading. What exactly are you claiming? Is the object - the trade itself - evil? Is it the intention of certain agents that make it evil? Are the circumstances such that evil effects outweigh any good effects? You need to be more specific (on a personal level) on why you believe trading is not a good action for someone to engage in.

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Great thread!

 

On the difference between speculating and investing these days I'd like to quote Doug Casey (see here): "There really aren't investments anymore. With trillions of newly created currency units floating around the world, things will become very chaotic and unpredictable shortly. It's very hard to invest using any kind of Graham-and-Dodd methodology when things are that chaotic. Whether you like it or not, you're going to be forced to be a speculator in the years to come. A speculator is somebody who tries to capitalize on politically caused distortions in the marketplace. There wouldn't be many speculators, or many of those distortions in the marketplace, if we lived in a free-market society. But we don't."

 

So, from that point of view I understand where DrBubb is coming from.

 

On the other hand, despite the massive distortions in the monetary system (FIAT currencies, fractional reserve system and its long-term implications) there is still a true economy, i.e. there are people and companies that actually make things in order to improve the quality of life on this planet. I work for a company that works with a base chemical the price of which seems directly linked to the price of crude oil, and I can definitely say that it does not help if one set of speculators drives and chases up the price of a commodity (in our case it is crude but it does not matter which, Mexican people that live on wheat tortillas may have a similar view on this) to ridiculous highs, and then another set of speculators hammers it back down again. Yes, it is a sign of the times but does one have to jump on every bandwagon?

 

As for gold, I hold a decent amount of it as well. I don't see it as an investment either. Quite the opposite: gold does not produce anything! It's being dug out of the ground wasting energy, and then it's being buried again by somebody else, wasting energy again (in order to loosely quote Warren Buffet). In that sense, I'm a speculator myself as I don't consider the gold I hold as an investment. I do, however, expect it at least to preserve my purchasing power in this time of depreciating FIAT currencies, and I also feel 'forced' to hold some due to circumstances.

 

To summarise: I accept that trading, mercantilism and investing improve the quality of life on this planet but I fail to see where buying and selling derivatives (i.e. useless paper) improve anything beyond a trader's account balance. On the contrary, it only exascerbates the problem...

Thanks for you great post, you obviously see where I am coming from. I think like you do that trading does have it's place in society but the rampant grow in speculation is causing many problems in the economy and is not really adding anything to it.

 

The world is moving more towards speculation on all levels currently, this has been bought about by the changes the central banks have made at the request of the bankers. There have been many changes which have bought us to this position, including the repeal of the Glass-Steagall act, the creating of continual bubbles by ultra low interest rates and changes to the tax laws.

 

The massive increase in derivatives since 2000 has caused massive problems for the world. Banks are now so interconnected that the speculative trading mistakes of one can now bring down the entire financial system, which has meant that they are now too big to fail. Which in effect means that they can speculate against each other while paying themselves massive bonuses for future earnings that may or may not actually exist in reality, rather just in the fantasy way they are accounted for currently. This speculation is risk free in that if they take on too much risk the public ends up carrying the can or the system breaksdown. This is why there won't be deflation as there can be no default, default is required to rid the system of excesses built in the boom.

 

Something obviously needs to be done to stop this continually increase in speculation, rather than the whole world joining in what is obviously a flawed approach.

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I understand you're not projecting a moral system here, but you're certainly making a moral claim regarding the activity of trading. What exactly are you claiming? Is the object - the trade itself - evil? Is it the intention of certain agents that make it evil? Are the circumstances such that evil effects outweigh any good effects? You need to be more specific (on a personal level) on why you believe trading is not a good action for someone to engage in.

I don't believe the actual act of trading is evil, it actually is required to provide goods and services. There obviously would be no economy at all without the ability to trade one thing for another.

 

The problem I think is in the expansion of speculative trading which has come about since TPB got the Glass-Steagall act repealed. So in effect it is the intention of certain agents that make it evil.

 

Yes the current circumstances which have been created are starting to make a system where speculation is the norm, which I feel is acting against the economy as a whole.

 

Please read my other posts on this thread about the rise of derivatives and high frequency trading to get a clearer idea of what I am talking about. If an admin could change the title of this thread to "Why speculative trading is the downfall of the modern world" I think that would make things clearer.

If that is too long you could try "Why speculation is the downfall of the modern world".

Edited by Pixel8r

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Could an admin please change the name of this thread to "Why speculation is the downfall of the modern world"

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Fixed. :)

 

Thanks. smile.gif

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[...]

 

 

I am not sure how "true" the economy is.

 

It is fraught with distortions and malinvestments, and so it is tough to see what is true, and what is not.

 

[...]

 

In the same way, China has increased its money supply at a huge rate (albeit at higher interest rates) and encouraged massive investment in railways, homes, and highways- things that may or may not be needed in the future. This demand has spurred a global commodities boom, and encouraged people to put their "savings" into gold and silver. If China suddenly went to reverse, which could happen at any time, we amy find that all commodity prices would come tumbling down. Listen to Nicole Foss in her recent interview on FS - she paints a grim picture.

 

As far as the 'true' economy is concerned, I believe there aren't that many ways to create 'true' value:

1.) Primary sector, i.e. farming

2.) Secondary sector, i.e. manufacturing

3.) Tertiary sector, i.e. services

 

Of course in each sector there are and always will be malinvestments. At this moment in time they occur partly because of a skewed monetary system but they also occur because behind each investment decision stands one or more person/s, and people are always prone to error and mistakes.

 

On commodities in general they are a prime example of excessive speculation. Futures exchanges serve the primary purpose to enable a supplier of a commodity (e.g. a farmer or owner of a mine) to find a customer. According to wikipedia, however, less than 3% of traded futures contracts are actually followed by true exchange of goods. The remainder seems speculation, and, given the ratio of 97:3 I find it very difficult to accept the argument that speculators serve the purpose of "providing liquidity". Rather the opposite, it seems that futures exchanges provide a rather inexpensive platform for the leveraged trade of paper with the additional purpose of actually helping those that buy and sell commodities. In my humble opinion there should be severe limitations on anyone trading in the futures exchanges except those that have a genuine purpose in there. It is made even worse by the fact that speculators don't even need to employ their own money due to the possibility to trade on margin.

 

Thanks for you great post, you obviously see where I am coming from. I think like you do that trading does have it's place in society but the rampant grow in speculation is causing many problems in the economy and is not really adding anything to it.

 

[...]

 

The massive increase in derivatives since 2000 has caused massive problems for the world. Banks are now so interconnected that the speculative trading mistakes of one can now bring down the entire financial system, which has meant that they are now too big to fail. Which in effect means that they can speculate against each other while paying themselves massive bonuses for future earnings that may or may not actually exist in reality, rather just in the fantasy way they are accounted for currently. This speculation is risk free in that if they take on too much risk the public ends up carrying the can or the system breaksdown. This is why there won't be deflation as there can be no default, default is required to rid the system of excesses built in the boom.

 

Something obviously needs to be done to stop this continually increase in speculation, rather than the whole world joining in what is obviously a flawed approach.

 

I believe that

 

1.) setting limitations on futures exchange trading, and,

2.) implementing a small tax levy on each trade

 

would probably help to quieten down excessive speculation. I think discussions on 2.) started at one point but the PTB don't want it. I even think that the majority of people on this board would probably oppose. Their arguments would probably center around the fallacies of the broken system, and that these tools may actually be important corrective tools...

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I believe that

 

1.) setting limitations on futures exchange trading, and,

2.) implementing a small tax levy on each trade

 

would probably help to quieten down excessive speculation. I think discussions on 2.) started at one point but the PTB don't want it. I even think that the majority of people on this board would probably oppose. Their arguments would probably center around the fallacies of the broken system, and that these tools may actually be important corrective tools...

I agree and have been saying for a while that taxes need to be increased for short term trades and decreased for long term investment. I believe that would be corrective in encouraging investment capital into the right sort of places, it seems a very easy minor change to start putting things right. I doubt the PTB would see it so though as they have been spending a fortune on building up the HFT resources.

 

How about making the futures exchange available to all but making it 100% margin requirements, that would stop the speculation dead.

 

 

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Let's get the crooks behind bars... as a first step

Raj-Squared = Convicted !

 

I hope this will embloden government prosecutors and they will soon go after some of the many crooks still operating on WALL St.

 

A major conviction from a major firm, would be a good next step.

 

Surely, Blankety-blank can "do God's work" in prison

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In my humble opinion there should be severe limitations on anyone trading in the futures exchanges except those that have a genuine purpose in there. It is made even worse by the fact that speculators don't even need to employ their own money due to the possibility to trade on margin.

I agree, although I'm probably out of my depth here... :mellow:

 

Our family has a farm, we grow wheat and barley. If we so desired, we could sell existing tonnage or the upcoming harvest's tonnage on the futures market. No problem, as when that time comes we have the physical product and lorries will come and collect. I don't see why anybody else should have access to this market.

 

I guess futures, ETF's etc. are just an extension of fiat currency. A promissory note saves the 'buyer' and 'seller' having to exchange physical goods. A sack of potatoes in exchange for a pheasant, for example.

 

The whole thing is wrong but it has become so entwined in our society that it is virtually impossible to back.

 

 

Just thinking out loud with a bit of a rant for good measure ;)

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