Beating Buy and Hold (thru disciplined speculation)

[drbubb]

I am covering my short here on HK-GLD, 200 shares

 

symbol:HK-2840: 1,189.00 / Change: -50.00

 

Chart:HK2840 : Price is right on the 252d-MA

 

I think this is more important than the "more famous" 200d-MA

[drbubb]

GLD

USDSPDR GOLD SHARES

Last [Tick] $154.25 + $1.92

===

 

Selling the 200 remaining GLD-$134 Calls at $20.25 - They expire today

[drbubb]

PRICE: 12/16'1 12/09'1 12/02'1 11/25'1 11/18'1 11/11'1 11/04'1 10/28'1 10/21'1

SLV--: $28.85 : $31.33 : $31.65 : $30.20 : $31.41 : $33.74 : $33.20 : $34.27 : $30.48 :

Chg.- : -$2.48 : -$0.32 : +$1.45 : - $1.21 : - $2.33 : +$0.54 : - $1.27 : +$3.79 : -$0.86 :

Silver : $29.66 : $32.23 : $32.73 : $31.27 : $32.28 : $34.67 : $34.15 : $35.37 : $31.36 :

Prem. : +$0.81 : +$0.90 : +$1.08 : +$1.07 : +$0.87 : +$0.93 : +$0.95 : +$1.10 : +$0.88 :

ZSL-- : $14.52 : $12.51 : $12.32 : $13.76 : $12.81 : $11.18 : $11.62 : $11.05 : $14.24 :

$42-X : $27.48 : $29.49 : $29.68 : $28.24 : $29.19 : $30.82 : $30.38 : $30.95 : $27.76 :

ZX/slv : 95.25% : 94.13%: 93.78%: 93.51%: 92.93%: 91.35%: 91.51%: 90.31%: 91.08%:

====

DXY-- : 80.141 : 78.935 : 78.683 : 79.320 : 78.023 : 76.911 : 76.911 : 75.089 : 76.276 :

UUP-- : $22.49 : $22.12 : $22.12 : $22.42 : $22.01 : $21.60 : $21.71 : $21.16 : $21.54 :

CRB--- : 295.00 : 306.43 : 313.55 : 305.45 : 312.21 : 320.20 : 320.44 : 323.07 : 311.08 :

DBA---: $27.61 : $28.01 : $28.76 : $28.55 : $29.30 : $30.04 : $30.62 : $31.03 : $30.76 :

Rsilver : : 7.838 :: 8.070 :: 7.942 :: 7.842 :: 7.850 : 8.104 :: 7.969 :: 7.965 :: 7.474 : 7.569 :

===

Ap$23c: $6.85 : $8.97 : $9.42 : $8.42 : $9.42 : 11.57 :: 11.07 : 12.10 : $8.97 : $9.62 :

Ap$27c: $3.97 /$5.05 /

Ap$30c: $2.47 : $3.95 : $4.35 : $3.87 : $4.55 : $6.20 :/ $0.00 /

Ja.$25c: $4.25 : $6.52 : $6.97 : $5.92 : $6.95 : $9.12 : $8.72 :: $9.77 : $6.65 : $7.27 :

Ja.$27c: $2.67 : $4.72 : $5.20 : $4.32 / $4.40 /

Ja.$28c: $1.98 : $3.90 : $4.37 : $3.62 : $4.52 : $6.55 : $6.20 :: $7.17 : $4.52 : $4.15 :

Ja.$30c: $0.96 : $2.44 : $2.93 : $2.43 : $3.17 : $5.00 : $4.75 :: $5.62 / $3.87 /

AgqJ$40c 10.65 /$9.15 /

SlwMr25c $5.55 /$5.58 /

SlwMr27c $4.15 /$6.20 /

KgcF$11c $1.58 /$1.83 /

ATX.v--: 0.315 : 0.325 : 0.355 : $0.36 : $0.40 : $0.41 : 0.435 :: $0.52 : $0.61 : $0.67 :

DBA$30c $0.07 : $0.15 : $0.35 : $0.40 : $0.75 : $1.15 : $1.45 :: $1.82 : $1.80 : $2.17 :

ZslD$11c: $0.00 : $1.52 / $1.20 /

GldD$134 21.23 : 32.40 : 35.80 : 29.87 : 33.87 : 40.12 : 37.05 :: 35.95 / 24.0 /

hk2840g- 1209. : 1293. : 1322. : 1278. : 1308. : 1336. : 1331. / 1,000 / $7.77

GLD-ny$ 155.23 : 166.40 : 169.82 : 163.4 : 167.61 : 173.96 : 170.85 :

==== ====

Trades This Week:

BOT HK-2840 at HK$1,280 x 200 shs ($164.52 -$32,904 : -AP1)

BOT PAAS-Dec.$22c at $1.70 x 1,000 shs (-$1,700 : -AP1)

SOLD PAAS-Dec.$22c at $2.85 x 1,000 shs (+$2,850 : +AP1)

BOT SLV-Apr.$27c at $5.00 x 1,000 shs (-$5,000 : -AP1)

BOT SLV-Apr.$27c at $5.10 x 1,000 shs (-$ 5,100 : -AP2)

BOT SLW-Mar.$27c at $6.20 x 1,000 shs (-$6,200 : -AP1)

BOT KGC-Feb.$11c at $1.83 x 2,000 shs (-$3,660 : -AP1)

BOT AGQ-Jan.$40c at $9.50 x 1,000 shs (-$9,500 : -AP1)

BOT SLV-Mar.$25c at $5.76 x 1,000 shs (-$5,760 : -AP1)

BOT AGQ-Jan.$40c at $8.80 x 1,000 shs (-$8,800 : -AP2)

BOT SLV-Mar.$25c at $5.40 x 1,000 shs (-$5,400 : -AP2)

BOT HK-2840 at HK$1,189 x 200 shs (/7.78 -$30,566 : -AP1)

SOLD GLD-Dec$134 at $20.25 x 200 shs (+$4,050 : +AP1)

 

Trades Last Week:

SOLD ZSL-Dec.$11c at $1.90 x 2,000 shs (+$3,800 : +AP1)

SOLD FCX-Dec.$39p at $1.40 x 1,000 shs (+$1,400 : +AP1)

 

==========

Cash: start.Wk / EndofWk== / Core-start / End / ==Chg.Cash

AP1: $388,503 / $300,113 // 5,000 / 5,000 / ==: -$32,904 +($2850 -$1700) -$5000

-$6200 -$3660 -$9500 -$5760 +(-$30,566 +$4050) = -$88,390 =$300,113

AP2: $274,595 / $255,295 // 8,000 / 6,000 / ==: -$5100 -$8800 -$5400= -$19,300

(at last week - before updating)

AP1: $383,303 / $388,503 // 5,000 / 5,000 / ==: +$3,800 +$1,400 = $388,503

AP2: $274,595 / $274,595 // 8,000 / 6,000 / ==: No change

=== ===

 

Spreadsheet: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

[drbubb]

From DrBubb's Diary...

That is a brilliant find, I remember spruiks not too long ago chanting in a frenzy that Gold will be $5,000 - $24,000 per ounce. And recently when it hit $1900 per ounce, "you better buy now, blah blah". I remember these types of lines just before real estate started to crumble in the USA and even here in Australia.

When other precious metal sites were ramping Gold at $1900 and Silver at $45 plus, what you were hearing some several folks here (not just me) was: "Be careful! Parabolic moves normally get retraced."

 

[

 

I reckon some GEI readers benefitted from those warnings and upon reading them were more likely to take profits or shift to another metal than buy into the parabolic spike.

 

I have to admit, that I am gritting my teeth while buying right now. And I am much more likely to buy in the money calls than outright longs. I always thought that I would be buying more outright longs at these levels when we reached them. But I find I don't have the stomach for it since I can see that support could easily be broken. Some usually accurate observers, like my HF friend "B" have been talking about $22 Silver. Maybe we will see that (or even lower), and so I want to "keep some powder dry" in case we do.

 

But anyway, if you look at the Beating B&H thread, you will see I have been aggressive in buying in recent days, as I always planned to be when Silver hit these levels below $30 and near $27. I do think you can put the market calls on GEI up there will they most accurate you can find. But now that I have typed that, there's an excellent chance you will see a big blunder soon, and maybe this agressive buying of Call will be it. Of course, we want to trade knowing "anything can happen."

 

SEE: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

[drbubb]

From the GOLD thread...

One for you Bubbs.....

"market timing a volatile commodity in an uptrend may not work nearly as well as just buying the stuff and leaving it alone. You only have to mistime one or two of the major moves in the cycle and you have losses that will leave you way behind the buy-and-hold crowd.

 

That goes for the so-called expert traders too. A bit of luck can so easily be confused with judgement when none is involved."

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2011/12/19/trying-to-market-time-a-volatile-gold-and-silver-market-is-a-fools-errand/

Hence I have maintained a LONG BIAS in my BBH portfolio.

I merely "Dail up" and ""Dail down" risk (using options) when I think we are at extremes or within "interesting" trading windows.

 

We are within such a trading Window at the moment, and I am buying SLV, AGQ, and SLW calls aggressively

[drbubb]

SUMMARY of Beating B&H - Alternative Portfolios

 

--Type-- : Port.1 : Port.2 : average

Ag-phys. : 4,000 : 6,000 : 5,000

SLV-shs. : 1,000 : 0,000 : 0,500

======= : ==== : ==== :

+ CORE +: 5,000 : 6,000 : 5,500

+ Upside :14,000 15,000 :14,500

+ (Calls)

SlvAp23 : 0,000 : 1,000 :

SlvAp27 : 1,000 : 1,000 :

SlvAp30 : 0,000 : 2,000 : Slightly out-of-the money

SlvJa27 : 2,000 : 0,000 :

SlvJa28 : 0,000 : 0,000 :

SlvJa30 : 1,000 : 0,000 :

AgqJ.40 : 1,000 : 1,000 :

SlwMr25: 1,000 : 1,000 :

SlwMr27: 1,000 : 1,000 :

AgqExtra: 2,000 : 2,000 : see footnote

======= : ====== : ======

+Options+ 9,000 : 9.000 :

= $Value : $033.9 : $033.9 :

To Exer. : $203.0 : $203.0 :

+Cash$+: $300.1 : $255.3 :

Free cash $097.1 : $052.3 :

Core Nav $147.5 : $178.0 :

Total Nav $484.7 : $470.4 : $477.6 // B&H: $296.6

 

Detail from: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

 

Note: I am now holding my most aggressive Silver positions ever !

 

I have jumped to Silver-related positions LARGER than the Buy & Hold portfolio. In AP#1, I have about 140% of the Silver exposure that B&H has. And AP#2 has 150%. So I jump in Silver prices now would be likely to INCREASE my outperformance relative to B&H. I have waited a long time, to implement this greater leverage to Silver, and I hope I have my timing right !

 

In any case, since I am using options, I will be less exposed to a sharp drop in Silver prices than the B&H portfolio. The negative thing is that I am now the most heavily exposed to time decay that the portfolios have ever been, So I am hoping for sharp moves soon.

 

As per my trading design, I keep an eye on how much cash I would need to exercise all my SLV and Silver-related Calls (just over $200k per portfolio.) My cash holdings in each portfolio exceed that, so I retain some "free Cash", so there is zero danger of losing the "upside" controlled by my Silver-related calls. And if Silver drops, I retain some cash firepower to buy at lowerprices.

 

Please note that I am now including SLW call options as virtually equivalent to SLV calls. In fact, I think there is an excellent chance that SLW will outperform SLV, but this is not certain. AGQ calls have a 2X gearing, but the underlying value ($45.65) is higher than SLV ($27.96) and so each AGQ share should have 3.27 times as much of the upside as SLV. (That is, a $1 move in SLV should push AGQ up by about $3.27.) So this looks to be an efficient way of holding Silver price upside. In my Summary table, I count each 1,000 AGQ Calls as if they were 3,000 SLV calls - that's recorded as 2,000 as "AGQ Extra."

 

OPTIONS WORK!

And it is clearly possible to consistently Beat Buy & Hold.

[drbubb]

Please note that I am now including SLW call options as virtually equivalent to SLV calls. In fact, I think there is an excellent chance that SLW will outperform SLV, but this is not certain...

Note yesterday's Outperformance by SLW:

 

Santa rally is here.

Gold has recovered to the 200dma; will it now meet resistance here?

 

"It's a Dead Cat Bounce," says Tom Obrien, and "The S&P wants to tag SPX-1290."

"It is easy to move it during a week like this."

 

If it goes up on light volume, he thinks it will soon drop to retest the October lows.

He is also unimpressed by Gold's rally, and thinks it will drop $200 or more.

 

(Tuesday closes):

 

SPX: 1241.30 +35.95 / +2.98%

O: 1205.72 / H: 1242.82 / L: 1205.72

 

GLD: 156.98 + 2.11 / +1.36%

O: 156.82 / H: 157.43 / L: 156.58

vol.: 9.14 mn (ave: 14 mn)

 

SLV: 28.77 + 0.81 / +2.90%

O: 28.64 / H: 28.82 / L: 28.50

vol.: 11.52 mn (ave: 20 mn)

 

SLW: 29.80 +1.54 / +5.45% : Note Outperformance !

O: 28.87 / H: 29.83 / L: 28.75

vol: 4.37 mn (ave: 6 mn)

[drbubb]

PRICE: 12/23'1 12/16'1 12/09'1 12/02'1 11/25'1 11/18'1 11/11'1 11/04'1 10/28'1

SLV--: $28.28 : $28.85 : $31.33 : $31.65 : $30.20 : $31.41 : $33.74 : $33.20 : $34.27 :

Chg.- : -$0.57 : -$2.48 : -$0.32 : +$1.45 : - $1.21 : - $2.33 : +$0.54 : - $1.27 : +$3.79 :

Silver : $28.73 : $29.66 : $32.23 : $32.73 : $31.27 : $32.28 : $34.67 : $34.15 : $35.37 :

Prem. : +$0.45 : +$0.81 : +$0.90 : +$1.08 : +$1.07 : +$0.87 : +$0.93 : +$0.95 : +$1.10 :

ZSL-- : $15.00 : $14.52 : $12.51 : $12.32 : $13.76 : $12.81 : $11.18 : $11.62 : $11.05 :

$42-X : $27.00 : $27.48 : $29.49 : $29.68 : $28.24 : $29.19 : $30.82 : $30.38 : $30.95 :

ZX/slv : 95.47% : 95.25% : 94.13%: 93.78%: 93.51%: 92.93%: 91.35%: 91.51%: 90.31%:

====

DXY-- : 79.892 : 80.141 : 78.935 : 78.683 : 79.320 : 78.023 : 76.911 : 76.911 : 75.089 :

UUP-- : $22.39 : $22.49 : $22.12 : $22.12 : $22.42 : $22.01 : $21.60 : $21.71 : $21.16 :

CRB--- : 306.08 : 295.00 : 306.43 : 313.55 : 305.45 : 312.21 : 320.20 : 320.44 : 323.07 :

DBA---: $28.60 : $27.61 : $28.01 : $28.76 : $28.55 : $29.30 : $30.04 : $30.62 : $31.03 :

Rsilver : : 7.381 :: 7.838 :: 8.070 :: 7.942 :: 7.842 :: 7.850 : 8.104 :: 7.969 :: 7.965 :: 7.474 :

===

Ap$23c: $6.17 : $6.85 : $8.97 : $9.42 : $8.42 : $9.42 : 11.57 :: 11.07 : 12.10 : $8.97 :

Ap$27c: $3.40 : $3.97 /$5.05 /

Ap$30c: $1.95 : $2.47 : $3.95 : $4.35 : $3.87 : $4.55 : $6.20 :/ $0.00 /

Ja.$25c: $3.55 : $4.25 : $6.52 : $6.97 : $5.92 : $6.95 : $9.12 : $8.72 :: $9.77 : $6.65 :

Ja.$27c: $1.96 : $2.67 : $4.72 : $5.20 : $4.32 / $4.40 /

Ja.$28c: $1.32 : $1.98 : $3.90 : $4.37 : $3.62 : $4.52 : $6.55 : $6.20 :: $7.17 : $4.52 :

Ja.$30c: $0.48 : $0.96 : $2.44 : $2.93 : $2.43 : $3.17 : $5.00 : $4.75 :: $5.62 / $3.87 /

AgqJ$40c $8.10 : 10.65 /$9.15 /

SlwMr25c $5.55 : $5.55 /$5.58 /

SlwMr27c $4,12 : $4.15 /$6.20 /

KgcF$11c $0.99 : $1.58 /$1.83 /

ATX.v--: 0.3200 : 0.315 : 0.325 : 0.355 : $0.36 : $0.40 : $0.41 : 0.435 :: $0.52 : $0.61 :

DBA$30c $0.12 : $0.07 : $0.15 : $0.35 : $0.40 : $0.75 : $1.15 : $1.45 :: $1.82 : $1.80 :

GLD-ny$ 156.31 ; 155.23 : 166.40 : 169.82 : 163.4 : 167.61 : 173.96 : 170.85 :

==== ====

Trades This Week:

None

Trades Last Week:

BOT HK-2840 at HK$1,280 x 200 shs ($164.52 -$32,904 : -AP1)

BOT PAAS-Dec.$22c at $1.70 x 1,000 shs (-$1,700 : -AP1)

SOLD PAAS-Dec.$22c at $2.85 x 1,000 shs (+$2,850 : +AP1)

BOT SLV-Apr.$27c at $5.00 x 1,000 shs (-$5,000 : -AP1)

BOT SLV-Apr.$27c at $5.10 x 1,000 shs (-$ 5,100 : -AP2)

BOT SLW-Mar.$27c at $6.20 x 1,000 shs (-$6,200 : -AP1)

BOT KGC-Feb.$11c at $1.83 x 2,000 shs (-$3,660 : -AP1)

BOT AGQ-Jan.$40c at $9.50 x 1,000 shs (-$9,500 : -AP1)

BOT SLV-Mar.$25c at $5.76 x 1,000 shs (-$5,760 : -AP1)

BOT AGQ-Jan.$40c at $8.80 x 1,000 shs (-$8,800 : -AP2)

BOT SLV-Mar.$25c at $5.40 x 1,000 shs (-$5,400 : -AP2)

BOT HK-2840 at HK$1,189 x 200 shs (/7.78 -$30,566 : -AP1)

SOLD GLD-Dec$134 at $20.25 x 200 shs (+$4,050 : +AP1)

[drbubb]

OUTPERFORMANCE HIGH TIES RECORD HIGH (over $177,500), and the Ratio improved too.

. . .

I can summarise my Silver holdings this way:

CORE+

==== PhysAG : SLV- : CORE : InThe$ : OutOf$ : Total

AP#1 : 4,000 : 1,000 :: 5,000 :: 3,000 : 2,000 : 10,000

AP#2 : 6,000 : 0,000 :: 6,000 :: 4,000 : 0,000 : 10,000

= = = = = = = = = = = = =

LONGER TERM THINKING:

If SLV hits my target of $28-29, then I shall add to the CORE Silver longs position. Once I do so, if Silver moves back up, I can stay ahead of the B&H portfolio...

 

In the week ended 12/16, SLV/Silver hit my price target and I added aggressively to my longs, using options heavily, and also proxies like SLW (Silver Wheaton.)

 

... the following needs more updating ...

 

OUTPERFORMANCE STAYS NEAR RECORD HIGH (near $180,000), as the Ratio improves.

 

RECORD

(B&H Silver 10,000 oz.)

Record :: B&H Portf : Alt.Port #1 : Alt.Port #2 : Average : -Ratio- : -SLV- : -DXY- /--CRB-- real.SLV

 

01 July: --- $337.0 K : - $479.2K : - $465.2 K : $472.2K : 140.1% : $33.00 x74.36 / 3.3671 =# 7.288

29 July: --- $398.9 K : - $539.7K : - $537.1 K : $538.4K : 135.0% : $38.83 x73.75 / 3.4208 =# 8.371

26 Aug: --- $417.2 K : - $546.5K : - $558.1 K : $552.3K : 132.4% : $40.41 x73.81 / 3.3525 =# 8.897

30 Sep: --- $299.8 K : - $478.6K : - $473.4 K : $476.0K : 158.8% : $28.91 x78.80 / 2.9815 =# 7.640

28 Oct: --- $353.7 K : - $532.4K : - $524.7 K : $528.5K : 149.4% : $34.27 x75.09 / 3.2307 =# 7.97

04 Nov: --- $341.5 K : - $521.7K : - $513.2 K : $517.5K : 151.5% : $33.20 x76.91 / 3.2044 =# 7.97

11 Nov: --- $346.7 K : - $522.9K : - $517.2 K : $520.0K : 150.0% : $33.74 x76.91 / 3.2020 =# 8.10

18 Nov: --- $322.8 K : - $505.2K : - $495.4 K : $500.3K : 155.0% : $31.41 x78.02 / 3.1221 =# 7.85

25 Nov: --- $312.7 K : - $493.0K : - $485.6 K : $489.3K : 156.5% : $30.20 x79.32 / 3.0545 =# 7.84

02 Dec: --- $327.3 K : - $507.0K : - $497.0 K : $502.0K : 153.4% : $31.65 x78.68 / 3.1355 =# 7.94

09 Dec: --- $322.3 K : - $504.1K : - $492.0 K : $498.1K : 154.5% : $31.33 x78.94 / 3.0643 =# 8.07

16 Dec: --- $296.6 K : - $484.7K : - $470.4 K : $477.5K : 161.0% : $28.85 x80.14 / 2.9500 =# 7.84

23 Dec: --- $287.3 K : - $474.3K : - $459.3 K : $466.8K : 162.5% : $28.28 x79.89 / 3.0608 =# 7.38

Vs B&H: -- 100.0% - : - 165.09% : - 159.87% : +162.48%

 

At 23 Dec., the average of the two Alt. Portfolios was $179,509 (prev.$180,909) ahead of Buy&Hold.

 

Versus $177,773 ahead at 21 Oct., when Silver had fallen to $30.48. Last Friday's SLV was $28.28.

 

For more detail / see spreadsheet : http://tinyurl.com/beatingBH

 

I can summarise my Silver holdings this way:

CORE+

==== PhysAG : SLV- : CORE : InThe$ : OutOf$ : Total

AP#1 : 4,000 : 1,000 :: 5,000 :: 8,000 : 1,000 : 14,000

AP#2 : 6,000 : 0,000 :: 6,000 :: 7,000 : 2,000 : 15,000

(Notes):

CORE is Physical Silver plus SLV shares

InThe$ : In the money SLV calls, with strikes below Friday's SLV closing

OutOf$ : SLV calls with strikes above the SLV closing price

= = = = = = = = = = = = =

LONGER TERM THINKING:

SLV hit my target of $28-29, so I added aggressively to Silver-related positions, using mainly options. If Silver moves back up, I expect to stay ahead of the B&H portfolio, since I now have 14-15,000 Silver-related longs in each portfolio. Incidently, I decided to use options rather than SLV or Silver longs, because the charts do not look as bullish as I has expected them to look at these levels and I wanted to have a limited exposure to further downside in Silver prices.

 

I continue to hold a large-sized cash position (averaging about $158,000) leaving me the flexibility to exercise the SLV, SLW, and AGQ calls or to add more Silver or SLV calls if Silver prices should take another step downwards.

[drbubb]

This comment belongs here too - How many times did I warn people: "Anything can happen?"

 

I wonder if major doubts are spreading amongst the silver bulls.

Quite obviously it isn't performing as expected in the catastrophic environment we have.

The ridiculous price quotes we have seen from all those with an agenda (Turk, Sprott etc.), plus the multitude of websites pushing the story- have no doubt suckered in a lot of people looking for riches and not just wealth preservation, it can often appear to be only a one way bet where there is absolutely no possibility of it going the wrong way, and anyone with an alternative opinion is regarded as a sheep with no understanding of the situation, could it be the gold and silver followers are the sheep ?

What makes me chuckle is when the PM's are crashing and people come along with their "I hope it plummets astronomically so I can back up the truck", I don't believe this for one minute, you can almost feel their pain as they say it through gritted teeth.

Lets face it, nobody has a crystal ball and has absolutely no idea how this eventually pans out, we are in totally unchartered waters.

 

Good comment.

 

I should frame it, and pull it out again and quote it in the next parabolic move.

 

I still cannot believe people were spouting nonsense like:

"Never, ever ever SELL your Gold!"

 

What's it for? If you have a huge profit (as at Gold-$1,900 or Silver-$48) why not cash some or all of it?

 

You can buy Calls with some of the proceeds, if you want to stay long.

[Manual labourer]

COPIED FROM THE SILVER THREAD

 

DrBubb, on 20 December 2011 - 01:54 AM, said:

From DrBubb's Diary...

 

When other precious metal sites were ramping Gold at $1900 and Silver at $45 plus, what you were hearing some several folks here (not just me) was: "Be careful! Parabolic moves normally get retraced."

 

Posted Image[

 

I reckon some GEI readers benefitted from those warnings and upon reading them were more likely to take profits or shift to another metal than buy into the parabolic spike.

 

I have to admit, that I am gritting my teeth while buying right now. And I am much more likely to buy in the money calls than outright longs. I always thought that I would be buying more outright longs at these levels when we reached them. But I find I don't have the stomach for it since I can see that support could easily be broken. Some usually accurate observers, like my HF friend "B" have been talking about $22 Silver. Maybe we will see that (or even lower), and so I want to "keep some powder dry" in case we do.

 

But anyway, if you look at the Beating B&H thread, you will see I have been aggressive in buying in recent days, as I always planned to be when Silver hit these levels below $30 and near $27. I do think you can put the market calls on GEI up there will they most accurate you can find. But now that I have typed that, there's an excellent chance you will see a big blunder soon, and maybe this agressive buying of Call will be it. Of course, we want to trade knowing "anything can happen."

 

SEE: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

 

 

DrBubb, on 20 December 2011 - 05:26 AM, said:

Hence I have maintained a LONG BIAS in my BBH portfolio.

I merely "Dial up" and ""Dial down" risk (using options) when I think we are at extremes or within "interesting" trading windows.

 

We are within such a trading Window at the moment, and I am buying SLV, AGQ, and SLW calls aggressively

 

 

 

Posted 20 December 2011 - 08:16 AM

 

Could be brave that DB, If $26 is tested and fails, which it probably will then the next bus stop could be $18 !

 

At which piont I will need a train not a truck! :D

 

 

Regards

 

Ml

 

 

Posted today!

 

Hi DB,

 

Are you still long on both silver and gold

 

Where do you see Silver moving to if it breaks through $26 in the short term ?

 

 

Regards

 

ML

 

Ps your message box is full!

[drbubb]

COPIED FROM THE SILVER THREAD

DrBubb, on 20 December 2011 - 05:26 AM, said:

I have maintained a LONG BIAS in my BBH portfolio.

I merely "Dial up" and ""Dial down" risk (using options) when I think we are at extremes or within "interesting" trading windows.

 

We are within such a trading Window at the moment, and I am buying SLV, AGQ, and SLW calls aggressivel

Posted 20 December 2011 - 08:16 AM

======

 

Could be brave that DB, If $26 is tested and fails, which it probably will then the next bus stop could be $18 !

At which piont I will need a train not a truck! :D

 

Regards, Ml

 

Hi DB,

Are you still long on both silver and gold

Where do you see Silver moving to if it breaks through $26 in the short term ?

Regards, ML

Fortunately, Thursday's and Friday's move was very constructive.

Gold and Silver could be forming an important bottom. But it will not be clear until we head into the new year. Here's the action from yesterday:

 

GLD : $151.99 +$1.65 +1.10% // h:153.75 l:151.79 vol: 10.85 mn

SLV : $ 26.94 -$0.13 -0.47% // h:27.71 l:26.86 vol: 21.98 mn

SLW : $ 28.96 +$0.48 +1.69% // h:29.46 l:28.75 vol: 4.679 mn

====

 

Next week, I would like to see closes above: GLD-$155 and SLV-$28.

 

If instead prices break down, then I will lose less money that the B&H portfolio, because of the large number of options I hold, rather than outright longs. In fact, I still hold enough cash to enable me to reload on longs or calls at lower prices. The big question is: When?

 

At What price would I consider doing that?

I posted my GLD targets on the Momentous Predictions thread:

xx

 

The equivalent ones for SLV/Silver might be:

 

???

[drbubb]

PRICE: 12/30'1 12/23'1 12/16'1 12/09'1 12/02'1 11/25'1 11/18'1 11/11'1 11/04'1

SLV--: $26.94 : $28.28 : $28.85 : $31.33 : $31.65 : $30.20 : $31.41 : $33.74 : $33.20 :

Chg.- : -$1.34 : -$0.57 : -$2.48 : -$0.32 : +$1.45 : - $1.21 : - $2.33 : +$0.54 : - $1.27 :

Silver : $27.48 : $28.73 : $29.66 : $32.23 : $32.73 : $31.27 : $32.28 : $34.67 : $34.15 :

Prem. : +$0.54 : +$0.45 : +$0.81 : +$0.90 : +$1.08 : +$1.07 : +$0.87 : +$0.93 : +$0.95 :

ZSL-- : $15.87 : $15.00 : $14.52 : $12.51 : $12.32 : $13.76 : $12.81 : $11.18 : $11.62 :

$42-X : $26.13 : $27.00 : $27.48 : $29.49 : $29.68 : $28.24 : $29.19 : $30.82 : $30.38 :

ZX/slv : 96.99% : 95.47% : 95.25% : 94.13%: 93.78%: 93.51%: 92.93%: 91.35%: 91.51%:

====

DXY-- : 80.205 : 79.892 : 80.141 : 78.935 : 78.683 : 79.320 : 78.023 : 76.911 : 76.911 :

UUP-- : $22.47 : $22.39 : $22.49 : $22.12 : $22.12 : $22.42 : $22.01 : $21.60 : $21.71 :

CRB--- : 305.30 : 306.08 : 295.00 : 306.43 : 313.55 : 305.45 : 312.21 : 320.20 : 320.44 :

DBA---: $28.88 : $28.60 : $27.61 : $28.01 : $28.76 : $28.55 : $29.30 : $30.04 : $30.62 :

Rsilver : : 7.000 :: 7.381 : : 7.838 :: 8.070 : : 7.942 :: 7.842 :: 7.850 : 8.104 :: 7.969 :: 7.965 ::

(options)

Ap$23c: $4.97 : $6.17 : $6.85 : $8.97 : $9.42 : $8.42 : $9.42 : 11.57 :: 11.07 : 12.10 :

Ap$27c: $2.55 : $3.40 : $3.97 /$5.05 /

Ap$30c: $1.39 : $1.95 : $2.47 : $3.95 : $4.35 : $3.87 : $4.55 : $6.20 :/ $0.00 /

Ja.$25c: $2.36 : $3.55 : $4.25 : $6.52 : $6.97 : $5.92 : $6.95 : $9.12 : $8.72 :: $9.77 :

Ja.$27c: $0.98 : $1.96 : $2.67 : $4.72 : $5.20 : $4.32 / $4.40 /

Ja.$28c: $0.56 : $1.32 : $1.98 : $3.90 : $4.37 : $3.62 : $4.52 : $6.55 : $6.20 :: $7.17 :

Ja.$30c: $0.16 : $0.48 : $0.96 : $2.44 : $2.93 : $2.43 : $3.17 : $5.00 : $4.75 :: $5.62 :

AgqJ$40c $4.00 : $8.10 : 10.65 /$9.15 /

SlwMr25c $5.05 : $5.55 : $5.55 /$5.58 /

SlwMr27c $3.72 : $4,12 : $4.15 /$6.20 /

KgcF$11c $0.71 : $0.99 : $1.58 /$1.83 /

ATX.v--: 0.315 : 0.320 : 0.315 : 0.325 : 0.355 : $0.36 : $0.40 : $0.41 : 0.435 :: $0.52 :

DBA$30c $0.12 : $0.12 : $0.07 : $0.15 : $0.35 : $0.40 : $0.75 : $1.15 : $1.45 :: $1.82 :

==== ====

Trades This Week:

xx

Trades Last Week:

None

[drbubb]

I haven't seen this Silver chart anywhere else yet

 

 

This week's low at $26.15 could be important.

We have seen Lows at almost the exact same level twice before

[drbubb]

Happy New Year from the BBH thread !

This week's low at $26.15 could be important.

We have seen Lows at almost the exact same level twice before

 

It looks like the new year has begun with a bang !

 

SLV- : $28.78 +$1.84 / +6.83%

AGQ : $47.42 +$5.77 / +13.85% !!

SLW : $30.26 +$1.30 / +4.49%

KGC : $11.95 +$0.55 / +4.82%

[drbubb]

...From the Gold thread...

You are being disingenouos Dr Bubb. How much of your life do you devote to working on non-B&H investing strategies Dr Bubb? Answer: serious amounts. Versus how much time can someone with a f/t professional career devote? Answer: not even close to enough.

Surely, that is not the point. I am talking about myths I want to explode.

I am a professional investor, and BBH is only a small part* of what I do.

My point is about whether it is possible to Beat B&H consistently. Over many months, I have demonstrated that it is possible.

 

If what you are saying is: "It isn't easy to beat B&H. It requires time, discipline, and dedication."

Then, I would say that I agree completely.

 

It is only a myth (spread by those who might benefit from getting you to become a long term holder of gold) that you cannot beat B&H through trading. Once you realise it can be done, you can begin to consider whether or not you are willing to devote the effort needed to do it yourself.

==== ====

 

*Right now, I am researching investments Junior miners and explorers, analysizing the technical situation of the overall market, and developing a market neutral trading strategy, while pondering various big picture scenarios in our world involving future developments. The effort of Beat B&H is only a small part of my research activities. On some days I do nothing, or very little. So I consider that effort a sideshow, not the main show. But I know many posting here are interested in it, so I keep the trading and posting alive. And by doing it, I have learned some useful things about how to trade with such an objective.

[drbubb]

PRICE: 01/06'2 12/30'1 12/23'1 12/16'1 12/09'1 12/02'1 11/25'1 11/18'1 11/11'1

SLV--: $27.91 : $26.94 : $28.28 : $28.85 : $31.33 : $31.65 : $30.20 : $31.41 : $33.74 :

Chg.- : +$0.97 : -$1.34 : -$0.57 : -$2.48 : -$0.32 : +$1.45 : - $1.21 : - $2.33 : +$0.54 :

Silver : $28.72 : $27.48 : $28.73 : $29.66 : $32.23 : $32.73 : $31.27 : $32.28 : $34.67 :

Prem. : +$0.81 : +$0.54 : +$0.45 :+$0.81 : +$0.90 :+$1.08 : +$1.07 :+$0.87 : +$0.93 :

ZSL-- : $14.67 : $15.87 : $15.00 : $14.52 : $12.51 : $12.32 : $13.76 : $12.81 : $11.18 :

$42-X : $27.33 : $26.13 : $27.00 : $27.48 : $29.49 : $29.68 : $28.24 : $29.19 : $30.82 :

ZX/slv : 95.16% : 96.99% : 95.47% : 95.25% : 94.13%: 93.78%: 93.51%: 92.93%: 91.35%:

====

DXY-- : $81.26 : 80.205 : 79.892 : 80.141 : 78.935 : 78.683 : 79.320 : 78.023 : 76.911 :

UUP-- : $22.72 : $22.47 : $22.39 : $22.49 : $22.12 : $22.12 : $22.42 : $22.01 : $21.60 :

CRB--- : 309.48 : 305.30 : 306.08 : 295.00 : 306.43 : 313.55 : 305.45 : 312.21 : 320.20 :

DBA---: $28.35 : $28.88 : $28.60 : $27.61 : $28.01 : $28.76 : $28.55 : $29.30 : $30.04 :

Rsilver : : 7.328 : : 7.077 :: 7.381 : : 7.838 :: 8.070 : : 7.942 :: 7.842 :: 7.850 : 8.104 :: 7.969

(options)

Ap$23c: $5.67 : $4.97 : $6.17 : $6.85 : $8.97 : $9.42 : $8.42 : $9.42 : 11.57 :: 11.07 :

Ap$27c: $2.92 : $2.55 : $3.40 : $3.97 /$5.05 /

Ap$30c: $1.58 : $1.39 : $1.95 : $2.47 : $3.95 : $4.35 : $3.87 : $4.55 : $6.20 :/ $0.00 /

Ja.$25c: $3.05 : $2.36 : $3.55 : $4.25 : $6.52 : $6.97 : $5.92 : $6.95 : $9.12 : $8.72 ::

Ja.$27c: $1.37 : $0.98 : $1.96 : $2.67 : $4.72 : $5.20 : $4.32 / $4.40 /

Ja.$28c: $0.75 : $0.56 : $1.32 : $1.98 : $3.90 : $4.37 : $3.62 : $4.52 : $6.55 : $6.20 ::

Ja.$30c: $0.17 : $0.16 : $0.48 : $0.96 : $2.44 : $2.93 : $2.43 : $3.17 : $5.00 : $4.75 ::

AgqJ$40c $5.55 : $4.00 : $8.10 : 10.65 /$9.15 /

SlwMr25c $5.85 : $5.05 : $5.55 : $5.55 /$5.58 /

SlwMr27c $4.32 : $3.72 : $4,12 : $4.15 /$6.20 /

KgcF$11c $1.36 : $0.71 : $0.99 : $1.58 /$1.83 /

ATX.v--: 0.410 : 0.315 : 0.320 : 0.315 : 0.325 : 0.355 : $0.36 : $0.40 : $0.41 : 0.435 ::

DBA$30c $0.07 : $0.12 : $0.12 : $0.07 : $0.15 : $0.35 : $0.40 : $0.75 : $1.15 : $1.45 ::

==== ====

Trades This Week:

None

Trades Last Week:

None

[drbubb]

I SOLD a number of my Silver-related Calls yesterday, taking some nice profits.

 

Update coming (when I have time, it has been a busy day)

[drbubb]

I have sold over half of my options - Will record trades using real prices achieved...

When I have more time over the weekend

[drbubb]

WHY I STOPPED posting on this thread.

The following was fist posted on the Main Gold thread:

I dont know why you have such a problem with those who want to own some gold. Of course you will say you dont but the things you say prove otherwise.

 

You never ever accept any of the criticism. You ask "what changes are needed?" I foolishly thought you meant changes to the website but clearly its "changes to the thinking of the GEI people" you are referring to.

??

I have no problem whatsoever with people who want to hold Gold. (Are you reading my posts, or just REACTING to what you think I wrote?) I own gold, and in early Jan when the price was near $1,550, encouraged those who wanted to add to their holdings, to buy at the "low" price then.

 

I listen to and respond to criticism all the time. That other thread is full of many threads disagreeing with me. I generally respond positively and politely, even to some occasional hostile postings.

 

 

BTW, Have you read the DEFINITION OF A CULT from the other site? Here are the first two points:

 

Key Characteristics of a Cult (adapted from the research of Janja Lalich and Michael Langone and of Marcia Rudin)

 

1. The group displays excessively zealous and unquestioning commitment to its leader and regards his belief system, ideology, and practices as the Truth, as law. The leader is not accountable to anyone.

 

2. Rational thought, questioning and dissent are discouraged or forbidden.

 

/source: http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/02/how-pm-blogosphere-behaves-like-cult.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ScrewtapeFiles+%28Screwtape+files%29

 

=== ===

 

No one here sees me as a leader to a Gold cult. (And I certainly would not encourage that, though I do think people can benefit sometimes from the trading ideas I post on DrBubb's Diary and elsewhere here.) But many here do see Jim Sinclair as a Cult leader. The gold cultists never question him. And I get an earful ("an eyeful"? in posts) when I dare to question him, or GATA, or any of the other Buy-and-Hold gurus.

 

I think that my postings, and those of others like RH, are sensible and rational, but they are not treated that way by the Gold Purists. The Purists got very upset merely by the PRESENCE of a "Beating Buy and Hold" thread on the Main board. Rather than attracting those who wanted to learn from what I was doing, the thread proved to be a magnet for those who wanted to rubbish the idea of my daring to trade Precious metals. Eventually, I gave up, and moved the thread elsewhere. I also stopped updating it every week. Over 6-9 months, I believe I proved someone with a technical system could beat buy and hold by spotting trading windows, even when I stuck to a strong Long bias.

 

There simply wasn't enough constructive posting on the thread, so I decided "why bother with this?" and stopped wasting my time keeping it up to date. If that wasn't responding to the demonstrated wishes of GEI posters, what do I need to do ?

[Kapouillax]

There simply wasn't enough constructive posting on the thread, so I decided "why bother with this?" and stopped wasting my time keeping it up to date. If that wasn't responding to the demonstrated wishes of GEI posters, what do I need to do ?

 

That's a shame DrBubb.

 

I was following, although I was not one to criticise or contribute (due to my still limited trading skills).

On the plus side, I think I did manage to grasp the big strokes of the strategy you've been outlining here, which I hope to put in practice soon, when I judge POG and POS is getting in the danger zone. I expect my appreciation to be a lot coarser than yours and I'll hedge in bigger proportional lumps to limit the number of transactions (and the associated costs).