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drbubb

Copper is cheaper than Gold

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Copper is cheaper than Gold

Just look at the long term chart

===================================

(I am being intentionally provocative here - but there's some real logic to this argument)

 

"RED GOLD" .. : Usually Rises when the US$ falls

copper-d.gif : idx24_usd_en_2.gif

 

.. Copper price charts ... update : 2yr-CU : 6mos-CU : 10d-CU

CU.png.jpg

 

Last three years: CU-to-Gold ... update

CU-to-AU.png.jpg

 

Long Term - since 2008 (Note: 200g.AU = 0.44oz )

Copper-2008.png

 

Very Long Term

Copper-1900.png

 

Last three years: CU-to-Silver ... update : Hitting New Lows! Time buy some?

CU-to-AG.png.jpg

 

/ Note:

"As the charts show, copper is near its all time lows, about the same price in 2010 as in 1936. But because of the ongoing destruction of the US Dollar, it requires 35 times as many dollars in 2010 to buy a pound of copper as it did in 1936!"

Source of LT prices: http://pricedingold.com/copper/

== == == == ==

 

HOWEVER...

WE NEED TO pay attention to the all-important correlation with China:

 

Copper / CU vs China stocks / FXI, & the Builder Bellwether / HK-688 (China O'seas) ... update

CU-FXI-hk688.gif.jpg

 

== == : =CU= : =FXI= : C-F==

06/30 : 23.04 : 39.13 -16.09

09/30 : 33.76 : 42.82 : -9.06

10/29 : 36.86 : 44.97 : -8.11

11/30 : 37.02 : 43.34 : -6.32

12/31 : 43.71 : 43.09 : $0.62

01/31 : 42.51 : 42.55 : -0.04

02/28 : 43.38 : 42.45 : $0.93

03/31 : 43.59 : 44.91 : -1.32

=====

/more charts etc.: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=24419466

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The Inspiration?

I thought we needed a new thread for monitoring the price of Copper, and its value relative to Gold (& Silver)

 

Wednesday's Turnaround in Copper, back up, after a sharp drop - was impressive.

 

CU : 46.02 Change: +0.33 / Percent Change: +0.72% : CU-chart

Open: 45.71 High: 46.03 Low: 44.94

Volume: 129,384

 

That's:

+ Down from 45.69 to a low of 44.94 (-1.64%), then

+ Up from 44.94 to 46.03 (+2.42%)

 

Total move was: 4.06% : ! in a single day !

 

Not as much as Silver's 14% roundtrip on Monday. But huge anyway.

 

Some of my larger metal-related positions are in copper stocks right now. I am long there.

(Specifically: DM.t and WM.t)

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"RED GOLD" .. : Usually Rises when the US$ falls

copper-d.gif : idx24_usd_en_2.gif

Copper prices in Euros ... update : 2yr-CU : 6mos-CU : 10d-CU

CU.png.jpg

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"Copper is cheaper than Gold"

 

But BEFORE YOU MORTGAGE YOUR HOUSE TO BUY COPPER, look at these charts too...

 

1/ Copper-in-Euros is rolling over

CU-in-FXE.png.jpg

 

2/ SPX-in-Euros is too

SPX-in-FXE.png.jpg

 

3/ SPX-in-Copper : is coming off a nice base

SPX-in-CU.png.jpg

 

Purely based on these charts, SPX looks cheaper than copper !

 

So you need to think about more than just charts in making these decisions

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The Royal Mint is offering copper on sale for about 1/2 of spot (pre-1992 coins only):

unique2p.jpg

Buy with both hands, if you have somewhere to store them - because eventually they will disappear

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OTHER RELATIVE VALUATIONS

 

Here's what a parabolic price move looks like - and this is priced in Gold grams

 

U3O8-2000.png

 

Here's another form of Energy, trading in a price range

 

Crude-1950.png.jpg

 

Here's Silver - albeit not updated

Ag-1700.png

 

AG-to-AU / Updated - for the last 3 years ... update

AG-to-AU.png.jpg

 

(Note: 1 gram = 0.035 ounce, so when AG hits 0.035, it is worth 1.0 Gold grams)

 

Buying SILVER when it was historically cheap has proven to be smart

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Barrick Gold's purchase of copper producer Equinox for 7 billion$.

 

Perhaps Barrick also thinks copper is cheap, but the market punished Barrick's stock price severely

for this move.

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DrBubb,

Several months ago you were expecting a slow down in China. If this pans out copper would fall.

What's your current view on this?

It is an excellent question - And very relevant to the subject of this thread.

 

China IS showing some real signs of a slowdown now.

So even though Japan will need more copper to rebuild, China's slowdown may overwhelm the impact of Japan's buying of copper.

 

Where do we see it?

+ There are stories in the Press (here in HK) about how China must slow its expansion of express rail, because they are beginning to have trouble financing it. Also, they will slow their building of nuclear power plants, as they study what changes might be needed. Added together, this removes a decent slice of copper demand

 

+ China has tightened the restrictions on who can get financing to buy property, and even on who can buy at all. These measures are now beginning to hit homebuilding.

 

Here's my favorite Chinese homebuilder (the "Barratt of China" perhaps?):

 

China Overseas / HK:688 ... update

HK688.gif.jpg

 

HK-688 has a record on LEADING changes in the Chinese stock indices : ChinaA20-HK2823-vs-HK688

... and even the Hang Seng index, to a lessor extent : HSI/HK1804580-vs-HK-688

 

This decline began around the same time that Copper began to fall : Copper/CU-vs-HK688 : 10d

 

So we should be watching to see what happens ... will the stock slowdown continue ??

 

There is a real chance that Copper may have begun a BIGGER CORRECTION, and if that is true, I would expect Gold and Silver to eventually follow it lower.

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Copper is cheaper than Gold

===================================

.. Copper price charts ... update : 2yr-CU : 6mos-CU : 10d-CU

CU.png.jpg

 

HOWEVER...

WE NEED TO pay attention to the all-important correlation with China:

 

Copper / CU versus China stocks / FXI, and the Builder Bellwether / HK-688 (China O'seas) ... update

CU-FXI-hk688.gif.jpg

 

ADDED: the comparison chart to the Header

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