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Major ALERT - Chris Martensen

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Alert: Nuclear (and Economic) Meltdown In Progress

Wednesday, March 16, 2011, 4:05 pm, by cmartenson

 

Important note:

It is with a heavy heart that I am now issuing the highest level alert to my readers than I have to date. The threshold for an alert is one or more world events that personally cause me to take action.

 

I'm making this alert publicly available less than 36 hours after releasing it to my enrolled subscribers given its importance and the speed at which events are accelerating.

 

The substance of this alert centers on the unknown aftershocks that may result from the world's third largest economy, Japan, rapidly shifting from an exporter of funding to a consumer of it. In situations like these, we are by definition operating with incomplete and often confusing information, and events are developing more rapidly than they can be fully analyzed and internalized. We regret in advance any mistakes that we might make due to making calls and decisions in this highly fluid environment.

 

This alert warns you that major world-changing events are now underway and that your personal preparations for an uncertain future should either be completed or take on a new sense of urgency. On the basis of the information contained here and in the past two days of posts, I am personally ratcheting up my preparations, making purchases, and topping off what needs to be topped off.

 

Important caveat: At this point in time, I cannot fully support 100% of my concerns with hard data and evidence. Some of what has tipped me into this state of urgency is data, evidence, and stories that I can point to. Some is due to the absence of data or information, the remainder results from watching market gyrations and correlations shift into new patterns, which tell me something is afoot.

 

I have not been this concerned since October of 2008.

 

 

DAILY DIGEST

Daily Digest 3/16 - Japanese Emperor 'Deeply Worried', Homes Sit Empty Across East Bay, Japan

 

Wednesday, March 16, 2011, 10:40 am, by saxplayer00o1

 

Japanese Emperor 'Deeply Worried'

Last Defense at Troubled Reactors: 50 Japanese Workers

Japan Says 2nd Reactor May Have Ruptured With Radioactive Release

Meltdown 101: What Are Spent-Fuel Pools And Why Are They A Threat?

The World's Largest Nuclear Producers

Japan May Need 200,000 Extra Barrels of Oil Daily, IEA Says

IEA Warns High Oil Prices Could Hit Growth

 

/see: http://www.chrismartenson.com/

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Practical Survival Skills 101 - Understanding Emergencies

Wednesday, March 16, 2011, 3:45 am, by Aaron Moyer

 

Aaron submitted this post prior to the recent disaster in Japan. As we are now being educated in real-time as to the value of developing preparedness in advance of calamity, the guidance below becomes even more relevant. This article complements Aaron's earlier "Practical Survival Skills 101" posts on fire, water, and shelter.

 

Preface: What is an emergency?

There is an awful lot of academic banter in which we try to “identify” emergencies before they happen. Pedantic issues are categorized and specifics are assigned to them as potential resolutions. This is not a “flawed” approach, but it’s endemic in the American mindset, which is obsessed with Micromanagement.

 

In order to distance ourselves from the details, which are too stochastic and specific, we can generally state that an emergency is a shortage of resources.

 

Resources can be defined as:

. . .

Incidences of “high intensity” are:

 

Drowning event

A House Fire

Being stranded in the wilderness

Violent Attacks, such as a robbery

Violent Attacks such as an “active shooter” scenario where you’re amongst the targeted.

Violent contact with gangs or gang members

Abrupt natural disasters, such as earthquakes or tornados

Sudden Traumatic Injuries, such as auto accidents, equipment accidents or events that could result in a more protracted emergency, such as a Plane Crash.

. . .

As we begin the process of identifying the “most likely” scenarios, it is of critical importance to prioritize and make a workable plan. Don’t simply buy thousands of pounds of bulk foods, stockpile ammunition or build a bunker. These are irrational approaches that do nothing to “solve” the problem.

 

A common theme amongst Preppers is having reserves. This is a sub-component of our just in time delivery system, and the need to go out and buy goods for later consumption is soon to be outdated. What we attempt to mitigate when we behave this way is another concept of shortage, in short, a Microscale emergency in which we “project” we will not have enough.

 

The only cure for this is skillset, and www.chrismartenson.com has an excellent intellectual workshop here: http://www.chrismartenson.com/category/blog/what-should-i-do

 

As you identify your needs; Food, security, shelter and community, make your first step by asking the following: “What do I need to know in order to address this problem?”

 

read more » http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/practical-survival-skills-101-understanding-emergencies/54480

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Alert: Nuclear (and Economic) Meltdown In Progress

. . .

The substance of this alert centers on the unknown aftershocks that may result from the world's third largest economy, Japan, rapidly shifting from an exporter of funding to a consumer of it.

THIS SHIFT shows up as:

 

+ Japanese (companies, institutions, individuals) SELLING VARIOUS ASSET CLASSES:

xx

 

+ A Strong Yen (FXY): ... update

FXY.gif.jpg

 

(I circled the FXY upmove that happened in 2008.)

 

One important thing to keep in mind: In "emergency" times like this people shift assets in a hurry. What they are thinking about is: "What can I do to FEEL SAFER?" They are paying little attention to historic price relationships and fair valuations. They want to shift assets and do it in a hurry.

 

For those with cash and cooler heads, there are OPPORTUNITIES in times like these.

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The Coming Rout

Tuesday, March 8, 2011, 10:40 am, by cmartenson

 

Executive Summary

Further evidence that a Fed quantitative easing stoppage in June is likely

Implications such a stoppage will have on stocks, commodities, bonds, and precious metals

Why this will be more damaging to the economy than the 2008 correction

Will the Fed eventually resume quantitative easing?

Three alternatives to watch for that could prevent the coming rout

How to hedge against the predicted rout

 

Part I: Why Things Are About To Get Turned Upside Down

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

 

Part II: The Coming Rout

There are a few things that make the prospect of a Fed quantitative easing (QE) stoppage more likely.

 

The Fed Notices Inflation

Using a flashlight, a map, and both hands, the Fed managed to find something:

 

Fed Finds Climbing Costs Hit Shoppers

 

March 3, 2011

 

Many manufacturers are passing along higher input costs to their customers, a sign that rising prices for wheat, cotton, iron, and other commodities could increasingly reach consumers in coming months, according to the Federal Reserve's beige book survey.

 

The report, a summary of economic conditions across the central bank's 12 regional districts, said manufacturers "in a number of districts reported having greater ability" to pass through higher costs. "Retailers in some districts mentioned they had implemented price increases or were anticipating such action in the next few months," the Fed said.

 

It's good to see that the Fed is at least dimly aware that price inflation is in the pipe and coming soon to a market near you. The rest of the world has had no such difficulties in detecting inflation, especially on news like this:

 

/more: http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/coming-rout/53869

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ROUT - Excerpt:

 

Let's just say it won't be pretty.

 

Everything would tank. Stocks, bonds, and commodities. All of the risk assets that have been unnaturally supported by a flood of liquidity, too-low interest rates, and thin-air base money would give up those ill-gotten gains. Gold might behave a bit differently, because along with these market declines will come an enormous amount of uncertainty about the financial system itself, usually a condition for higher gold prices. So I expect gold to correct somewhat, but not nearly as much as everything else, and it could even gain.

 

The story is, admittedly, getting more confusing by the week, with some calling for hyperinflation and some calling for massive, outright deflation. I am trying to surf the probabilities and stay one step ahead of whatever curve balls are coming our way.

 

The basic idea is this: The Fed has been dumping roughly $4 billion of thin-air money into the US markets each trading day since November 2010. The markets, all of them, are higher than they would be without this money. $4 billion per trading day is an enormous amount of money. It's gigantic by historical standards. As soon as the QE program ends, the markets will have to subsist on a lot less money and liquidity, and the result is almost perfectly predictable.

 

Hello, downdraft.

== ==

 

Remember, those words were written BEFORE the disaster in Japan.

QE2 is not about to stop right now. But the Fed's printing will have to ALSO overcome the disruptions from Japan.

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yep, its upon us though nothing is guaranteed but...

 

quiet detailed essay covering almost all important issues,

 

watch for next few day how situation progress or detoriates...

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I suggest all read the following from CM blog The following are the end points and really the minimum you need to read. The rest of the text (see link) is longish but good stuff for all to know.

 

Thanks again DrBubb for posting such a timely message.

 

My Advice

 

Recently I had advised readers to be ready for a big downturn linked to the idea of a QE cessation. I am going to retract that somewhat (almost entirely), because this Japan crisis will provide all the political cover necessary for more printing.

 

Nonetheless, a market rout is on, but for entirely different reasons than I first projected.

 

At any rate, the time to move to cash from stocks is slipping quickly past, if not already gone, but if you haven't made that move yet, you should consider waiting for the next "Bernanke bounce" in which a few hundred billion are tossed into the kitty to stabilize the markets.

 

This alert is going to be a living document in the sense that I will be constantly updating it as time goes on and events unfold. The first stage of my advice centers on the basics. You need to have all of your basic preparations completed at this time. Food, water, medical kits, shelter, cash out of the bank, and all the rest should absolutely be in place at this time.

 

Get the basics done. Now.

 

* If you live on the west coast of the US, you must prepare for a fallout event even though this is extremely unlikely due to the distances involved. The concern here is that nearly 40 years of spent fuel is stored onsite and apparently boiling away its water and possibly burning. This means buying KI tablets for at least a week for every member of your family and being prepared to spend up to a week 'taped up' inside your house if it comes to that. Plastic, duct tape, and board games are what you need. I hate having to even suggest this sort of preparation. But while remote, there's always the chance that a quirk in the air flow patterns could lead to less dilution than expected across the ocean and that a relatively small area of the west coast could receive a surprisingly strong concentration of contamination. Again, this is very remote, but so was the idea of four plants all melting down at the same time.

* Get what cash you can out of the bank. You can always put it back later on. Keep it somewhere safe.

* Move any money you can from less liquid to more liquid vehicles. You want to be able to access your money in a hurry should that become necessary. Re-read Taking Control of Your Personal Finances if necessary. I outline all the reasons and a few methods for 'becoming more liquid.'

* Top off your fuel tanks.

* Buy extra food at the grocery store.

* Have long-term storage food put aside.

* Take medicines? Be sure to get extras.

 

I am still holding onto all of my gold and silver holdings as I cannot imagine any possible policy responses that will bolster anyone's faith in fiat currencies. That said, I am expecting short-term declines, possibly significant, in the US paper price for these metals on the basis of a liquidity crisis skimming the speculative component of their price off the top. I really don't know how much this will be, but it's certainly not insignificant.

 

When you stock up on things at the store(s), think also about friends family, neighbors, and all the other assorted people you care about who have almost certainly done little or nothing to prepare. What would they like? Don't overlook comfort and luxury items that command a mental premium in a time of crisis. Chocolate comes to mind.

Timing

 

As always, I have no idea if anything is going to transpire or not, or when. How's that for indecisive? But I can tell you that the pressures are larger than they’ve ever been throughout this long emergency and that conditions are ripe for an avalanche. My sincerest hope is that this will all blow over. But hope alone is a terrible strategy, and so we prepare.

 

My best guess is that the situation in Japan will unfold over the next two weeks, with a full blown funding and fiscal crisis (of confidence) blossoming there over that time. Already we are seeing credit spreads on Japan's sovereign debt begin to skyrocket, meaning that an increasing chance of a sovereign default is being priced into the debt markets. This is the same dynamic we saw with Greece, then Ireland, Iceland, too, and so on. Only this time it is happening to the world's third largest economy.

 

Two weeks after that, I expect that the first real product shortages and associated work stoppages will begin to hit the US and European economies. I expect the difficulties to surface first in Europe followed by the US. Somewhere in this zone we will get the next solid commitment to print, print, print, probably as a joint exercise of both continents.

 

Taken together, I think we've got at least a month until things have shifted enough that preparations will become either difficult or irresponsible.

 

Use this next month very wisely.

 

Remember, it's better to be a year early than a day late. So get out there and prepare responsibly.

 

Above all, it is our duty to remain calm, focused, and helpful to those around us. We are all experiencing anxiety and fear to greater and lesser degrees. It is my hope that we can use the privacy of the comment thread below to work through whatever issues arise for each other, whatever those may be, and to help each other make the best decisions we can in an increasingly chaotic and uncertain environment.

 

Welcome to the nexus of multiple exponential curves. We always knew things would speed up along the way, and so they have. Let's do the best we can.

 

Events are unfolding in a manner entirely consistent with the framework I laid out in my recent Guide to Navigating the Coming Crisis. As the report predicts: things are speeding up, events are progressing from the outside in, and soon enough everything will be substantially different than you remember and it won't be completely obvious how that happened due to the phenomenon of shifting baselines. Reading it should be a particular priority for those with family or substantial investments to protect. Click here to read the free executive summary.

 

Below you will find the original post I started on Saturday, hours after the explosion in the first reactor. It has since become a primary source on the unfolding tragedy for tens of thousands of people around the world - largely due to the extremely knowledgable contributions of experts in the CM.com community. More to come as circumstances develop.

 

Your faithful information scout,

Chris Martenson

A Note on Prepping Responsibly

 

To prepare responsibly, you should do it before a crisis hits, when there are plenty of goods, food, and other necessities available for purchase and your purchases actually increase the local resilience of your community. After a calamity has struck, say after the earthquake in Northern Japan, then any buying or accumulating you might do can be perceived as an act of hoarding, something we'd like to see everyone avoid.

 

If you have not done so, you need to be sure that you have covered all of the basic steps recommended in our What Should I Do? guide.

 

At the very least, you'll get peace of mind and have the chance to be among the people who are in a position to help others when the time comes. At the most, it could be the difference between a rather miserable piece of time spent wishing you’d done more to prepare and a relatively comfortable stretch of time.

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Hmm.

 

Japan suffers now / The West later ?

Perhaps he is right:

 

My best guess is that the situation in Japan will unfold over the next two weeks, with a full blown funding and fiscal crisis (of confidence) blossoming there over that time. Already we are seeing credit spreads on Japan's sovereign debt begin to skyrocket, meaning that an increasing chance of a sovereign default is being priced into the debt markets. This is the same dynamic we saw with Greece, then Ireland, Iceland, too, and so on. Only this time it is happening to the world's third largest economy.

 

Two weeks after that, I expect that the first real product shortages and associated work stoppages will begin to hit the US and European economies

 

I don't think all the bad news is priced in.

 

Fear is intense, but some things that are not feared will come out of the woodwork anyway

 

I wish I had more room for food storage here in HK.

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All Mizuho ATMs In Japan Have Stopped Working

 

Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge

March 17, 2011

 

Mizuho, the second-largest financial services company in Japan, has just locked out its customers from accessing their cash. Whether or not this is related to Zero Hedge reports from yesterday that the same bank is unable to complete ¥570 billion in transactions in unclear. What is clear is that we can only hope that those who need cash are calm and collected enough not to start a physical run on whatever bank deposit branches are open. From Reuters: “Mizuho Bank said on Thursday that all of its automatic teller machines (ATM) throughout Japan have stopped working. The bank did not immediately give a reason for the outage.” One can only hope that the most recent ¥5 trillion injection was sufficient to keep the liquidity in the banking system online. Alas, should the Mizuho situation not be promptly fixed, we anticipate more injections from the BOJ before the night is out.

 

^^^ just the beginning ? ^^^

 

I wish I had more food to store! Will be picking & stewing apples this weekend from the tree out back this weekend.

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^^^ just the beginning ? ^^^

All Mizuho ATMs In Japan Have Stopped Working

I wish I had more food to store! Will be picking & stewing apples this weekend from the tree out back this weekend.

Is this genuine, or a one off?

This could get some fears of financial contamination going...

 

Maybe this news is why the markets in both HK and Singapore slid in the final minutes,

closing near unchanged.

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Is this genuine, or a one off?

This could get some fears of financial contamination going...

 

Maybe this news is why the markets in both HK and Singapore slid in the final minutes,

closing near unchanged.

 

Just found out that apparently the ATM's are working again (Reuters live). Apparently.

In the end will it make any of a difference to the outcome?

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