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Stock Market crash about to begin?!!!

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So it starts with Japan, who would have thought

 

ME had no visible immediate impact on western markets, however its different this time

 

those futures are in red... so are oil, gold & silver

 

few hours to go before blood bath begins (unless PPT perform even bigger miracles than they have been doing so far)

 

BoJ attempts to support the makret with extra cash injections isn't working!

 

 

 

Topix Drops Most Since 1987 Crash; Rubber, Oil Decline

By Shiyin Chen - Mar 15, 2011 3:57 AM

 

Japanese stocks dropped, with the Topix index suffering its worst two-day slump on record, and default risk jumped as Prime Minister Naoto Kan said the danger of further leaks from a nuclear power plant damaged by the nation's biggest earthquake was increasing. Rubber and oil fell.

 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 5.8 percent to 123.89 as of 12:45 p.m. in Tokyo. The Topix tumbled 13 percent, Japan’s government bonds rose for a third day and the cost of protecting the nation’s corporate bonds from non-payment surged the most in more than two years. The Australian dollar weakened 1.1 percent. Rubber declined 8.5 percent and oil slid 2.2 percent in New York. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 2.2 percent.

 

The Bank of Japan added 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) into money markets today, adding to yesterday’s record cash injection, to secure the nation’s financial stability following the March 11 temblor -- updated to a magnitude of 9, from 8.9, by the U.S. Geological Survey -- and subsequent tsunami. Tokyo Electric Power Co. confirmed today a third explosion occurred at its Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant, which was damaged by the quake.

 

“The whole notion of risk, not only in financial markets but risk in general, needs to be rethought,” Sandeep Malhotra, a managing director at Clariden Leu, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Hong Kong. “With respect to the Japanese market, we believe there may be further downside.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/nikkei-225-set-for-worst-two-day-slump-since-2008-yen-weakens-after-quake.html

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Actually, the pattern is very similar to that at the time of the "flash crash", and Wednesday is... a special day

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Stock markets down sharply in the Eastern Hemisphere with the Nikkei down over 11%. The USD is up on safe haven buying. Expect Europe and North America to follow suit...

 

What is so special about Wednesday?

 

Here is how the market was faring:

 

DJ Asian Shares Lower; Nikkei Tumbles 12.2% As Nuke Fears Grow -3-(Adds information, quotes, updates/adds market levels) By Colin Ng and Ga-Woon Philip Vahn Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Asian stock markets tumbled Tuesday, dragged by a 12.2% fall in Tokyo's headline stock index amid widespread worries about the possibility of a Japanese nuclear catastrophe.

 

Japanese stocks fell sharply, pressured by news of another explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, this time at its No. 4 reactor. This was shortly after radiation levels rose sharply as the No. 2 reactor suffered an explosion following damage to its suppression pool.

 

Stock markets in Japan and the rest of Asia were battered after Japan's prime minister Naoto Kan said there's a high risk of elevated levels of radiation from the country's crippled nuclear reactors, and urged people within 30 kilometers of the plant to stay indoors.

 

"What the world is watching right now is whether Tepco's Fukushima nuclear power plant is going to turn into Chernobyl," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

 

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell 12.2% to 8442.82, extending Monday's 6.2% drop, for a loss of 17.7% so far this week.

 

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down 2.2%, South Korea's Kospi Composite lost 2.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 3.8%.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down a hefty 251 points in screen trade.

 

All 33 of Japan's Topix subindexes were lower in heavy trade with Tokyo Electric Power, the operator of the damaged nuclear power plants, ask-only at an indicative price of Y1,431. It ended Monday limit-down at Y1,621, off 24%.

 

"Foreign investors are rushing to sell nuclear power plant-related stocks," said Masayoshi Yano, senior market analyst at Meiwa Securities. "There is no sense of calmness to examine the health of the Japanese economy as a whole," he said.

 

Exporters were lower due to production halts with Toyota Motor down 4.6% and Sony down 13.7%.

 

The Nikkei June futures continued to fall and trading will be suspended if the main contract falls to 7780 points; recently it was down 14% at 8160, having briefly fallen below 8000 for the first time since March 2009. The Osaka Securities Exchange triggered circuit breakers several times to temporarily halt trade.

 

The Japanese headlines sent stocks across the region sharply lower.

 

In China, "there is panic selling in A-share market as investors are fretting over the reactor leaks in Japan, and further downside is likely to depend on whether the leaks in Japan can be placed under control," said Tang Yonggang, an analyst from Hong Yuan Securities.

 

Coal miners and gold firms were leading the declines, tracking the retreat in global oil and gold prices. Coal firm China Coal Energy was down 3.2%, while China Shenhua Energy shed 4.0%. Gold play Shandong Gold-Mining eased 3.2% and Zijin Mining dropped 3.8%.

 

In Australia, the news of Japan's nuclear crisis encouraged selling. "Investors are standing back from the market," said BBY senior institutional trader Peter Copeland. "But they have already discounted a lot of bad news."

 

Shares in Australian uranium miners and explorers extended Monday's sharp falls as Japan's nuclear disaster unfolded. Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services, described the falls as an "initial knee-jerk" move on a loss of investor confidence and said that until some facts emerge about the actual damage to the Japanese reactors and the sensationalizing moderates, it will be difficult to price uranium stocks.

 

Among pure uranium stocks, Energy Resources of Australia was down 10.7%, Paladin shed 17.0%, Extract dropped 14.3% while Uranex lost 26.8% and Bannerman fell 33.0%.

 

Thermal coal stocks continued to outperform, with Whitehaven up 0.2% on expectations of increased demand from Japan.

 

Materials stocks were also lower, with BHP Billiton down 3.3% and Rio Tinto 2.3% lower.

 

Korean shares were lower as foreigners turned net sellers amid the uncertainty generated by the latest explosion at the Japanese nuclear power plant.

 

Technology and steel producers were lower after outperforming on Monday. Samsung Electronics was down 4.1%, LG Electronics lost 4.9% and Posco shed 3.4%.

 

Elsewhere in the region, India's Sensex lost 0.7%, New Zealand's NZX-50 was 1.4% lower, Philippine shares were down 0.6%, Malaysian shares lost 1.1%, while Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 2.9% and Thai shares lost 1.9%.

 

Foreign exchange markets saw whippy trade. Prime Minister Kan's comments sparked a wave of selling as dealers rushed to dump riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar.

 

The dollar dropped to a low of Y81.21 against the yen, before bouncing and was last at Y81.45, compared with Y81.62 in late New York trade Monday. The euro was at Y113.82, from Y114.22 in New York and at $1.3959, from $1.3993.

 

The Australian dollar tumbled to US$0.9979 after earlier trading comfortably over parity.

 

Other regional currencies were not spared with heavy selling seen in the Singapore dollar, the Indian rupee, the Korean won and the New Zealand dollar.

 

Lead June Japanese government bond futures were sharply higher, up 0.98 at 140.90 points as the Nikkei plunged. The yield on the 10-year cash JGB was down four basis points at 1.165%.

 

It was hard to predict how the crisis at the crippled nuclear power plants will end, and that was boosting demand for safe-haven assets, said Deutsche Securities strategist Makoto Yamashita. Also, "there is a risk that, even if the government tries to provide fiscal help (on post-quake reconstruction), production activities and sentiment (among firms and households) will deteriorate sharply," he added.

 

Spot gold was at $1,409.50 per troy ounce, down $19.30 from its New York settlement Monday.

 

Nymex April crude oil futures were down $2.19 at $99.00 per barrel on Globex.

 

-Colin Ng, Dow Jones Newswires; +65-6415-4142; colin.ng@dowjones.com

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Actually, the pattern is very similar to that at the time of the "flash crash", and Wednesday is... a special day

 

Huh!

 

DrB you are being a bit cryptic here.............

 

What do you mean, what is 'special' about Wednesday ?

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... from DrB's Diary ...

 

Meltdown?

Nikkei fell as low as 7800 overnight.

Europe is due to gap down -2%.

Looks like we are headed that way.

 

Dollar up

idx24_usd_en_2.gif

 

...as stocks dive:

U.S. Stock Futures Data as of 5:10am ET

= S&P -27.80 / -2.15%

Level 1,262.70 / Fair Value 1,291.34 / Difference -28.64

= Nasdaq -45.75 / -2.00%

Level 2,243.75 / Fair Value 2,289.54 / Difference -45.79

 

RUMOR HERE :

Japanese insurance companies are liquidating there Japanese and International stock portfolios to cover potential losses.

 

In fact, there were very few shorts in the market, so the usual stability that comes from short covering is not there now to help cushion the losses.

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Now thru March 20th or so...

Huh!

 

DrB you are being a bit cryptic here.............

What do you mean, what is 'special' about Wednesday ?

Closest full moon of 2011 on March 19 – high tides – Saturn. Tonight for

Mar 15, 2011.

Today – March 19 – features the closest full moon of 2011. Some are calling it a supermoon. As a result, you might look for higher-than-usual tides along the ocean coastlines throughout the world.

 

What’s true – and false – about the March 19 supermoon

 

 

Moon, Saturn, and Spica on Saturday evening, March 19

What’s more, the bright point of light in the vicinity of tonight’s moon is the planet Saturn, the 6th planet outward from the sun.

 

Give me 5 minutes, I’ll give you Saturn in 2011

 

Because the full moon shines opposite the sun in our sky, you’ll see the moon beaming all night tonight from dusk until dawn. This extra-close full moon is likely to usher in large tides along the ocean shorelines for the next several days, especially if these high tides are accompanied by strong onshore winds.

 

Why is this moon so close? The reason is that the 2011 March full moon falls on the same date as perigee – the moon’s closest approach to Earth for this month. At perigee today, the moon lies only 356,575 kilometers (221,575 miles) away. Earlier this month, on March 6, the moon swung to apogee – its farthest point for the month. At that time, the moon was 406,583 kilometers (252,639 miles) distant.

. . .

The moon won’t come this close again until November 14, 2016. The extra-close moon in all of these years – 2008, 2011 and 2016 – finds the full moon occurring on the same date as lunar perigee...

/more: http://earthsky.org/tonight/high-tide-alert-closest-full-moon-of-2011-on-march-19

 

== == ==

 

I have news for the skeptics too...

When there are Record high tides, there is also record lunar gravity tugging away at the continental plates.

 

It is possible that more earthquake or volcanic activitiy over the next 48 hours. If you think this "closeness" is totally unrelate the the March 11th-13th quakes , then think again.

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The market makers appear to be playing tricks today, one of my stocks Hochschild Mining was down 7.6% earlier while the buys out weighted the sells in volume.

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Just went long the NIKKEI at 8486. didn't short it last night for personal reasons (not that I am normally a particularly moral person!). As I write the NIKKEI has jumped a little so maybe my good karma is paying off!

 

Tight stops and all that.

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Now thru March 20th or so...

 

Closest full moon of 2011 on March 19 – high tides – Saturn. Tonight for

Mar 15, 2011.

Today – March 19 – features the closest full moon of 2011. Some are calling it a supermoon. As a result, you might look for higher-than-usual tides along the ocean coastlines throughout the world.

 

What’s true – and false – about the March 19 supermoon

 

 

Moon, Saturn, and Spica on Saturday evening, March 19

What’s more, the bright point of light in the vicinity of tonight’s moon is the planet Saturn, the 6th planet outward from the sun.

 

Give me 5 minutes, I’ll give you Saturn in 2011

 

Because the full moon shines opposite the sun in our sky, you’ll see the moon beaming all night tonight from dusk until dawn. This extra-close full moon is likely to usher in large tides along the ocean shorelines for the next several days, especially if these high tides are accompanied by strong onshore winds.

 

Why is this moon so close? The reason is that the 2011 March full moon falls on the same date as perigee – the moon’s closest approach to Earth for this month. At perigee today, the moon lies only 356,575 kilometers (221,575 miles) away. Earlier this month, on March 6, the moon swung to apogee – its farthest point for the month. At that time, the moon was 406,583 kilometers (252,639 miles) distant.

. . .

The moon won’t come this close again until November 14, 2016. The extra-close moon in all of these years – 2008, 2011 and 2016 – finds the full moon occurring on the same date as lunar perigee...

/more: http://earthsky.org/tonight/high-tide-alert-closest-full-moon-of-2011-on-march-19

 

== == ==

 

I have news for the skeptics too...

When there are Record high tides, there is also record lunar gravity tugging away at the continental plates.

 

It is possible that more earthquake or volcanic activitiy over the next 48 hours. If you think this "closeness" is totally unrelate the the March 11th-13th quakes , then think again.

 

I think you will find that any and every extraordinary event can be linked to a celestial or universe event if you look hard enough.

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BTW i am taking an absolute battering today in my portfolio :-(

 

I think i might be able to attribute it to the fact i had that dodgey kebab last week :-)

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I think you will find that any and every extraordinary event can be linked to a celestial or universe event if you look hard enough.

 

Is an Edam cheese affected by the relative position of Mars and Jupiter in relation to Luton?

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BTW i am taking an absolute battering today in my portfolio :-(

Same here, I don't expect this to last long though.

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It is possible that more earthquake or volcanic activitiy over the next 48 hours. If you think this "closeness" is totally unrelate the the March 11th-13th quakes , then think again.

 

The Moon was at apogee on March 6th and will be at perigee on March 19th, so the quake hit more or less slap bang in the middle, suggesting the Moon was at an average distance. Can't see how that supports your notion it was to blame. If anything it undermines it, as the Moon really wasn't doing anything special at the time. That said, in the name of science, given this will be the closest approach since 1992, I've had a quick look at the dates of earthquakes in 1992 versus the apogee and perigee of the Moon for that year. Bit rough and ready, but hopefully you get the idea.

 

screenshotwlp.png

 

List of 1992 earthquakes Here

Lunar perigee and apogee calculator Here

 

Now, looking at that, you could say that several of those quakes happened close to perigee (+/- a few days), but there are also others closer to apogee, including the Cape Mendocino quake which falls on the exact day. That doesn't disprove the theory of the Moon influencing seismic events, but it does show that events occur regardless of where the Moon may be, so it's not the main driver in many instances. You'd have to be rather selective to generate a "pro-Moon" pattern from the above, but then we've already seen a misrepresentation to show a link between quakes and HAARP (without explaining how HAARP is responsible, which is another bugbear), so I guess it's possible. Regardless, I can't see how any causality can be determined without a lot more analysis over a much longer period of time. The Japanese quake was more or less equidistant of apogee and perigee, so I really can't see why people are making the connection.

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Now, looking at that, you could say that several of those quakes happened close to perigee (+/- a few days), but there are also others closer to apogee, including the Cape Mendocino quake which falls on the exact day. That doesn't disprove the theory of the Moon influencing seismic events, but it does show that events occur regardless of where the Moon may be, so it's not the main driver in many instances. You'd have to be rather selective to generate a "pro-Moon" pattern from the above, but then we've already seen a misrepresentation to show a link between quakes and HAARP (without explaining how HAARP is responsible, which is another bugbear), so I guess it's possible. Regardless, I can't see how any causality can be determined without a lot more analysis over a much longer period of time. The Japanese quake was more or less equidistant of apogee and perigee, so I really can't see why people are making the connection.

Interesting Philder.

Thanks for that work. But if we get a Quake this weekend, I will think there is more to it.

 

Unfortunately, I cannot see the Image file - Imageshack doesnt display here properly

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OZ PROPERTY - Crash Coming ?

 

So thinks Paul Thomasen...

 

Besides the big price declines there were some important developments today.

 

Several of our weekly trend signals changed today - these signals can last for any where from about 6 months to several years - so they are worth paying attention to - and here they are for today:

 

- Australia joined Japan today by triggering new bearish weekly trend signals - suggesting continue prices declines until at least late 2011. A troubling sign that may indicate the Australian housing boom may be about to implode - make a note.

 

- All other international markets moved to neutral, possibly setting up for major reversals.

 

- NYSE and NDX moved to neutral as well.

 

Don't be fooled by the media, this decline started well before the earthquake occurred in Japan - the decline was going to happen anyway.

 

As we've been saying for sometime, complacency and too much optimism is a bad set-up for the markets. So when our trend signal analytics told us the markets had already turned bearish back on the 8th of March while the indexes were rallying, it simply showed that we were wise to be patient to that point. But now we are expecting the 20+ open bearish positions added during last week should offer much more potential to come.

 

/ see: Green Button above

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I think you will find that any and every extraordinary event can be linked to a celestial or universe event if you look hard enough.

I would rather be prepared, then in Denial.

 

Can you swim?

 

Larry P interview Arch Crawford for his show last night, and they discussed the possible impact of a Super Full Moon. Arch sees a correlation of these Super Full Moons with quakes, and other earth changes, but does not promise one.

 

Link: http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/TWS031611.mp3

 

I will be checking out the reference that he mentioned.

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This from Chris Weber of Weberglobal.net in an 'Alert' email last night.

 

Quote :- " I feel comfortable only holding metals, cash, and stocks where I have already banked the originally invested principal. "

 

And

 

" I know that some interpretations of the Dow Theory would say that there is not a sell signal until the Dow Transports goes below 4,950.00. Incredibly, this is the exact number that the Dow Transports closed today. However, I am going to issue the sell for my own portfolio. If you want to wait for a true "double confirmation", please do so. "

 

He follows Richard Russell.

 

To my mind both these guys are very good investors.

 

I'm in only physical and cash.......... Maybe the cash will buy much more in the coming months.

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I would rather be prepared, then in Denial.

 

Can you swim?

 

 

Yep, apparently the tides will be a whole 1 inch higher, so better get the lifebelts and floats out if you can't ;)

 

A perigee full Moon brings with it extra-high "perigean tides," but this is nothing to worry about, according to NOAA. In most places, lunar gravity at perigee pulls tide waters only a few centimeters (an inch or so) higher than usual. Local geography can amplify the effect to about 15 centimeters (six inches)--not exactly a great flood.

 

Oh and that's from another group with a fairly good predictive record……. Nasa :D

 

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/16mar_supermoon/

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/8389142/Japan-risks-credit-crunch-as-yen-thunders.html

Japan risks credit crunch as yen thunders

Japan is in imminent danger of a credit-crunch with global implications unless the authorities stabilise Tokyo's stockmarket and take overwhelming action to stop the yen exploding to record levels.

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The Ongoing Adjustment may not be done yet - The remaining Yen-carry-trade folk are getting fried

 

The yen's violent move late Wednesday to a record ¥76 against the dollar - smashing historic lines of resistance - has gone far beyond levels that automatically set off secondary effects through derivative contracts.

 

The Topix index has regained some ground after crashing to 782 but is still at levels that leave Japan's top three banks barely above water on $1 trillion of equity holdings. The risk is that they will curtail lending as a precaution.

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wheels are set in motion, interesting times ahead.

 

 

 

Investors wrestle with meltdown risk

By James Mackintosh, Investment Editor

 

Published: March 18 2011 19:16

 

[extracts from ft.com]

 

“Clearly we’re trading an event that nobody understands the implications of,” admits one prominent hedge fund manager.

 

The outcome of that lack of understanding was shown in the wild market swings all week. At its worst, the Japanese stock market was down just over 20 per cent – a full-on crash. It then leapt, making back almost half its loss in two days, to end Friday down 10.2 per cent.

 

The country’s credit risk shot up; Markit data show Japan credit default swaps jumped almost a third to 115 basis points, ranking it as riskier than Mexico or Panama.

 

To add to the sense of crisis in financial markets, there was also an extraordinary spike in the yen on Thursday. In 20 minutes, it shot through its record high against the dollar, prompting the first co-ordinated currency intervention in a decade.

 

....

 

These effects do not just come down to fear.

 

Financial markets are terrible at pricing highly unlikely, but disastrous events. Even reasonably likely events may be ignored if they do not fit the quarterly reporting cycle or the mathematical risk models that limit many traders – as was shown by the 2007 subprime crisis. Then, models relied on recent US house price data, and so ignored the possibility of price falls.

 

Even in Japan, a very seismically active region, equities could not be prepared for a quake and tsunami on a scale barely known in living memory.

 

“The markets don’t do a good job because by definition these are events that are highly unlikely to happen,” says Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, the fund manager.

 

It took investors days to figure out the economic ramifications of the quake, while nuclear catastrophe loomed. That left an information gap that markets were not equipped to fill.

 

“Human nature causes you to exaggerate this kind of thing, typically by many multiples,” says Jeremy Grantham, chairman of fund manager Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo. “If you list things where the psychological effect is far greater than the expected value you would put nuclear at the top. Not that it isn’t a disaster, but the world is particularly sensitive to Three Mile Island-type events. Even the dreadful consequences of Chernobyl were only a tiny fraction of what was feared.”

 

For Mr Grantham, shares overreacted. “It may knock 2 per cent off [Japan’s] GDP,” he estimates. “And you saw 20 per cent knocked off the market.”

 

 

 

 

U.S. Stocks Drop a Second Week on Japan Radiation Concern, Libya Conflict

 

By Cecile Vannucci and Nikolaj Gammeltoft - Mar 19, 2011 4:01 AM GMT

 

 

U.S. stocks fell this week, sending the Standard & Poors 500 Index to the biggest drop since August, amid concern that Japans nuclear crisis and violence in Libya and Bahrain may curb the global economy.

 

The S&P 500 rose 1.8 percent in the past two days after the Federal Reserve said some banks are strong enough to boost dividends and buybacks, Libya called a cease-fire and FedEx Corp.s forecast beat estimates. General Electric Co. (GE) lost 5.5 percent, leading declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Utilities fell the most in the S&P 500, slumping 4.3 percent, amid speculation Tokyo Electric Power Co.s struggle to regain control at a nuclear plant will prompt more U.S. oversight.

 

The S&P 500 retreated 1.9 percent to 1,279.20 this week, and has slumped 3.2 percent since March 4, the biggest two-week decline in seven months. The index plunged 3.6 percent between March 11 and March 16 following the 9-magnitude earthquake that was Japans largest on record. It erased its annual gain after being up 6.8 percent year-to-date on Feb. 18. The Dow dropped 185.88 points, or 1.5 percent, to 11,858.52 this week.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-19/u-s-stocks-drop-a-second-week-on-japan-concern-libya-conflict.html

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