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drbubb

Erik Townsend's Peak Oil View

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I haven't listened yet, but there may be other reasons for that.

 

My own opinion is that some of Eric's long term strategies are difficult (or risky) to implement without using options - let's say as I do on the Beating B&H thread. But Erik is not keen on using options. Or at least he wasn't as of a few months ago.

As you possibly remember, I put my own call strategy in place several months ago. After an initial surge, I lost a lot of money on it (in relative terms). So, there is risk in options too. However, my breakeven price is $150 Brent in Nov. 2016. So, I am sitting here like a big fat spider in my web waiting on the peak oil ignorants to get tangled up. :)

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As you possibly remember, I put my own call strategy in place several months ago. After an initial surge, I lost a lot of money on it (in relative terms). So, there is risk in options too. However, my breakeven price is $150 Brent in Nov. 2016. So, I am sitting here like a big fat spider in my web waiting on the peak oil ignorants to get tangled up. :)

You are right : it is possible to loss money quickly on options, if you are new to it,

or get your trading strategies wrong.

 

In my Beating B&H portfolios, I am using highly disciplined and conservative strategies, and if you want to know more, than visit the thread, and I can answer some questions there. (Some may have been asked before, so maybe do some checking... If you get past all the mud-slinging from a small handful of posters who simply wanted to rubbish Trading of any kind - But I think those sorts of posters may have now decided to lay-off.)

 

Eric makes some interesting points about Futures trading here:

 

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-1119-2.mp3

 

(He seems to have been hit hard with an obscure rule in his futures account. It sounds like he should be looking for some help from an omsbudsman. I once had a case like that - but with different issues -m and wound up winning some years ago. I don't envy him in having such a headache.)

 

I hasten to add, all of the trading in my Beating B&H thread are in a STOCK account, rather than a FUTURES account. Also, I don't use margin, and I always have loads and loads of cash. As a rule (rarely broken), I do n't go short. (The exception has been where I have a small position short, which is covered by In the Money calls on the same underlying.)

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Eric makes some interesting points about Futures trading here:

 

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-1119-2.mp3

(He seems to have been hit hard with an obscure rule in his futures account...)

Wow, I just heard the end of it.

Erik's "lighting a bit of a fire here", and I hope that he gets into a satisfactory arbitration soon.

 

I do think the Futures Industry, is now going to have to make some improvements to satisfy their clients who now are both worried and angry.

 

"Sympathy with OWS protestors" - indeed. they have a very real point about the excessive power of banks, and the toxic co-operation between Washington and the Banks.

 

(As some will know, I was quick to start up the Wall Street Protest thread on 19 Sept - I was hoping that something would come of their protest efforts.)

 

Also check out Erik's friend's FOOD blog:

http://www.MyFirstBite.com

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You are right : it is possible to loss money quickly on options, if you are new to it,

or get your trading strategies wrong.

I should add that this is an oil hedge in the classical sense: an insurance against prices over $150. I insured future travel costs this way, and should I lose the premium then travel should still be affordable at sub-$150 prices. But I am pretty convinced my insurance will actually pay on or before Nov. 2016. :)

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I should add that this is an oil hedge in the classical sense: an insurance against prices over $150. I insured future travel costs this way, and should I lose the premium then travel should still be affordable at sub-$150 prices. But I am pretty convinced my insurance will actually pay on or before Nov. 2016. :)

If I understand you trade, there's something I don't like about it...

I think you have bought Call options issued by one of the big banks.

If so, are you sure they will be around in 2016 ?

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If I understand you trade, there's something I don't like about it...

I think you have bought Call options issued by one of the big banks.

If so, are you sure they will be around in 2016 ?

I bought from Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale. ATM I give it a 50% probability that one of them will still be around then.

 

Imagine a world where both of them would be bust & gone. I think my gold would insure the fallout from that. And travel would be near to impossible anyway, I suppose.

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I bought from Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale. ATM I give it a 50% probability that one of them will still be around then.

 

Imagine a world where both of them would be bust & gone. I think my gold would insure the fallout from that. And travel would be near to impossible anyway, I suppose.

Are they more likely to be alive in a high oil price or low oil price environment?

Hard to say, but probably in a high price environment, so you may be okay on that

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Hmm, in contrast to our dear DrBubb, Erik seems to have smelled the coffee and is thinking about bullion only from now on.

 

As you know, I have always propagated bullion mainly, if not bullion only. But I do have a derivatives peak oil bet standing with some of the biggest banking turds out there, which I intend to hold (my gold acting as a hedge against the complete banking meltdown).

 

In any case, CDSs on Greece decided to be worth nil, ErikT and Gerald Celente being each screwed by two different brokerages, how much else do some people need to know?

 

Highly doubt Erik is about to go into bullion only. That's just a way of justifying your own strategy.

 

There are still great opportunities in the futures.

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Highly doubt Erik is about to go into bullion only. That's just a way of justifying your own strategy.

His words, not mine. Sorry.

 

There are still great opportunities in the futures.

Until the next kaboom. ;)

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Just from "eyeballing" you chart, I can see a different pattern.

 

I would expect one more big drop (at least) before a further breakout

 

oilusdlog211111.png

 

... And/or a retracement to the bottom of the channel

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