Jump to content
drbubb

Gold Comments : for 1st Half-2007

Recommended Posts

It is traffic onto two key gold websites.

I think they look very bullish

 

What am I missing? It looks like traffic is low on both sites which means little interest in gold to me.

 

I did read an article today on kitco about how it's going to be the chinese year of the 'golden pig'. Could this really have an impact or is it just hype?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What am I missing? It looks like traffic is low on both sites which means little interest in gold to me.

 

EXACTLY.

That is precisely what you want when the price is drifting lower- a lack of interest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

we can forget about any slingshot action, until this technical damage is repaired.

i'm disappointed as anyone. i knew it would take a near miracle for both my bearish-on-bonds and bullish-on-gold calls to workout

 

the silver lining that i can see here, is the relative strength in hui-vs-gold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
we can forget about any slingshot action, until this technical damage is repaired.

i'm disappointed as anyone.

I'm not disappointed - so not 'as anyone'

 

It would appear both S&P and gold going down while $ picks up which is the strategy I've been playing. Of course, I didn't (and still don't) know what will happen but I feel more confident now that logic might actually prevail for once.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

looks much better by the close- especially on giold shares

 

we may have just seen a "v" bottom on HUI/GDX, a classic formation.

if so, it needs to keep rallying on monday

 

BP, dont be such a curmudgeon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(peter grandich):

 

With bearishness towards gold now solidly in the limelight, I would be the first to join the crowd if my work suggested it, but it hasn’t. In fact, most bullish fundamentals are better now than any other period since 2003. Yes, there are some technical concerns, especially for the short to intermediate time frame, but there is nothing even close to suggesting the secular gold bull market has or is coming to an end.

 

Rather than write some long-winded essay, I’ll try to cut to the chase. But first, allow me to address some indirect issues related to all this:

 

(mentions some other forecasts)

 

Okay, let’s look at gold.

1.JPG

 

First, let’s try to put gold’s price movement in context. At this time last year, gold was substantially below $600. It had bottomed around $540 in early June. Since then, gold has made a series of higher lows ($575 in October, $600 in January and $635 at the start of March), while the $700 area has been formidable resistance (and one of Frank Barbera’s chief technical concerns). As I noted from the outset, two people can see the cup differently. In my book, this is an ascending triangle formation, albeit if we close below $635 the bullish implications of the triangle are negated.

 

...more: http://news.goldseek.com/Grandich/1181574060.php

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I bought handfuls of in-the-money calls on GDX and GFI last night.

This is the first aggressive buying i have done in months. And i have quite a bit more to do. But yesterday was the real start.

 

Now that i have those calls, i will await some stronger evidence

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Neutral COT's are not Bearish in my book

- but some disagree...

 

COTs: Precious Metals Lose Shine

By Alex Roslin

Jun 11 2007 / www.cotstimer.blogspot.com

 

 

It was a crazy week in the markets, and as usual the precious metals led the way in the craziness. Technical breakouts for silver and gold stocks failed and turned into routs. Silver bounced down off a critical line of resistance from its March and April highs, while the GDX:GLD ratio - a good tell for gold stock action - also failed at a key line of resistance from its December and February highs.

 

What happened? One answer lies in the Commitments of Traders reports.

 

Friday’s report - based on data as of last Tuesday, June 5 - showed the “smart money” commercial hedgers still hadn’t overturned previous extreme bearish positioning in gold and silver.

 

In silver, gold and gold stocks, the commercial traders reduced their net positions to a historically neutral level (see table below). In my approach, this means the existing sell signals still apply.

 

...more: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Roslin/jun112007.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the global money supply contracting and holding cash giving you a half decent yield, is it any wonder the gold price is going down?

 

To some degree it must be true that rapid increase in the price of gold has come from an increase in money supply, this should hold true on the way down too. With this factor holding the gold price down, we aren't going to see Joe Public move his wealth from a bank account that pays 6+% interest to a lump of metal that does nothing!

 

I had high hopes for gold, in that it would start to become a standard investment product rather than one for 'oddballs', that hope is fading...

 

(I still like it though, you can't beat a bit of physical to make you come over all Scrooge McDuck!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
To some degree it must be true that rapid increase in the price of gold has come from an increase in money supply, this should hold true on the way down too. With this factor holding the gold price down, we aren't going to see Joe Public move his wealth from a bank account that pays 6+% interest to a lump of metal that does nothing!

 

That's all well and good until you start to get banks failing. Or failing that money created from thin air to stop them failing. Bernanke has repeatedly said that the big mistake of the 1930's was having a gold backed currency. He thinks that somehow the Fed will be able to walk the tightrope of disinflation and hyperinflation. I am not so sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...a standard investment product rather than one for 'oddballs', that hope is fading...

 

It is these times when prices dip, and go out of favour, that you should be looking to buy.

Not when the market is running on hype.

 

Ben B. does not seem to mind if his money-pumping creates horrible misallocations of capital.

In the end, those misallocations will ruin his strategy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WOW:

"Swiss gold sales pale in size in comparison to the Bank of China's $1200 billion of reserves. China hopes to diversify 5% of that into gold, which is $60 billion.

 

Where is China going to get $60 billion worth of gold, or about 2871 tonnes?

 

This remains the unanswered question in the gold market."

 

China's reserves: Golden dragon or sitting duck

http://english.people.com.cn/200706/07/eng...607_381820.html

 

see#25107 (sahara): http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=948390

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long term Gold charts - a BUY here and now?! Could well be!

 

Ten Year Weekly chart/ Gold ... all data-from-1978 : ten years : 2 years

bigpb7.gif

 

Two Year chart/ Gold ... weekly-2yrs : daily-2yrs

bigzq9.gif

Daily Gold chart - shows we have touched the bottom of the channel

gold2yrsof7.gif

 

I have started buying aggressively Calls on gold shares (like GDX and GFI), with more to come

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Bernanke has repeatedly said that the big mistake of the 1930's was having a gold backed currency."

 

I have to say, I find that comment amusing. Did he not consider that a big speculative frenzy based on loose credit creates the condition for the large crash that comes later? If credit was priced correctly, assets would be too, and any fall would be containable. Perhaps if interest rates were kept at reasonable levels to start with none of that would have happened. That's the reason the current situation is dodgy. Whenever I see politicians and central bankers selling gold en masse and pontificating about "lowest interest rates in 50 years" then I get very itchy.

 

Back to the subject of the gold price, I think if the U.S was raising interest rates to fight off inflation with a strong current account (as in the past) then perhaps the dollar could recover. But the price of the dollar is also a question of faith in the American economy. Given that it's current account is at a dangerous 5% of GDP and rising, and without the production capacity to pay it back then that faith in the U.S must be on the edge. That's why this time is different to 1929. After that crash it had the production capacity to export it's way out of trouble. This time it has Asia competing against it's manufacturing base, and India stealing it's fair share of the services industry.

 

This time I cannot see how the dollar can recover, this timethe dollar will lose it's value. That's why gold shoud go up. In theory!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yesterday's action in Gold & Gold shares was favorable.

 

market is now set for another potential upmove.

Once again, it will need volume if it will amount to anything

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×