theChuz Posted February 21, 2007 Report Share Posted February 21, 2007 I couldn't help but chuckle when I saw that. However I have still managed to make a loss on Gold, despite reading most threads here I just don't know where to put my money.... OK im not taking for blame/credit for this one.. it looks like the BOJ may be doubling IR's. Hopefully there will be a thread on this when i return form work EDITED: Just announced! BOJ IR +0.25% ... 0.25% -> 0.5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted February 21, 2007 Report Share Posted February 21, 2007 Well that should give the carry traders some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
room305 Posted February 21, 2007 Report Share Posted February 21, 2007 Well that should give the carry traders some food for thought. Precious little by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chas and dave Posted February 21, 2007 Report Share Posted February 21, 2007 Go buy > Hidefield Gold Terrane Metals Trade Winds Venture La Mancha Resources New Island Res Golden China Resources Corporation (needs EST) Otherwise, my gold shares are doing OK, silver a bit sleepy. Looking to invest a little more perhaps in silver - and need to do a little more homework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theChuz Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 OK that was unexpected so soon. back up to $677, did we just go and invade Iran while i was asleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 24, 2007 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2007 Is the Fed finally losing its Credibility? Peter Schiff ... Feb 23, 2007 With Wednesday's data release that showed that the increase in "core" CPI in January was higher than expected, the price of gold soared by over $20 per ounce to just shy of $680 per ounce, a new nine-month high. As this is the reaction that most market watchers would have expected, it is not surprising that these movements failed to inspire much interest. After all, gold is an inflation hedge, so any sign that inflation is worsening should be positive for gold prices. However, what is surprising is that this is one of the few recent occasions when the gold market has actually behaved logically in this regard. Could it be that some whiff of sanity has arrived on Wall Street? Over the last few years, the price of gold has typically declined following larger than expected jumps in "core" consumer prices. These counter intuitive movements have been explained by the market's anticipation that the Fed would react to higher inflation with additional rate hikes. Since higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, the metal has dipped on signs of elevated inflation. However, Wednesday's $20 surge indicates that something meaningful may have changed. My guess is that the market is calling the Fed's bluff. Gold investors may have finally concluded that when it comes to fighting inflation, the Fed is all bark and no bite. ...more: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff022307.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
room305 Posted February 24, 2007 Report Share Posted February 24, 2007 I am dubious about the rise in gold being related to perceived higher inflation or increased tension with Iran. Neither issue has moved gold prices significantly before. Could it be related to the meltdown in the subprime lending index? Perhaps investors are anticipating the problems spreading into other areas? It'll be an interesting week next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 27, 2007 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2007 ONE LINER opinion from a Dublin-based fund manager... Overall Industry Message was prices higher for longer Unsurprisingly, the main theme driving this view on the demand side was Chinese urbanisation, which was seen as offsetting any slowdown in the US in 2007. On the other side of the equation, supply is still seen by industry as constrained and being vulnerable to either delay or disruption and being unable to swiftly respond to a growth surprise. Euphoric Investor base Even if the “everything for the best in the best of all possible worlds scenario” as presented by the industry is correct, the sheer weight of investor interest in once unfashionable and cyclical companies seems to me to urge a high degree of selectivity given the run up in most of the companies share prices The areas that look best placed over the near to mid term seem to me to be platinum, gold, fertilizers and iron ore. While the industry remains bullish, I would be more nervous about copper and to a lesser extent, steel and nickel. Of the companies that presented, the ones that looked particularly interesting include Lonmin, Anglogold, CVRD, Evraz and fertilizer companies generally Owen Dwyer Pioneer Investment Management Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deeper Posted February 27, 2007 Report Share Posted February 27, 2007 Here are two conflicting views, take your pick Pro Base metals: Don Coxe http://events.ipresentations.net/Webcasts/...s2007/Lobby.php Another veiw: Frank Venoroso http://howestreet.com/fbn/index.php/mediaplayer?video_id=192 I think Venoroso makes a better argument, although I am looking at a junior nickel company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 27, 2007 Report Share Posted February 27, 2007 Is nothing safe? "Gold futures closed lower Tuesday for the first time in three sessions on concerns that China's demand for commodities may weaken, and price losses worsened in electronic trading after U.S. stocks logged their biggest one-day loss in more than five years. The plunge sent many metals-mining shares to their lowest levels in a month." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold...dist=TNMostRead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sigmadelta Posted February 27, 2007 Report Share Posted February 27, 2007 "Gold futures closed lower Tuesday for the first time in three sessions on concerns that China's demand for commodities may weaken, and price losses worsened in electronic trading after U.S. stocks logged their biggest one-day loss in more than five years. Cum Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc - "With this, therefore because of this" A common logical fallacy committed daily by the financial press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 6, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2007 James Turk: $720 Gold in Two Months "All you worried goldbugs out there, repeat after me: Corrections happen. Every bull market has lots of 5%-10% squiggles that look like the end of the world to those who don’t understand, and like entry points to those who do. GoldMoney’s James Turk devotes a page of his latest FreeMarket Gold & Money Report to the proposition that the secular bull market in precious metals (and the secular decline in the dollar) is alive and well. Here’s some of what James had to say: Both gold and silver were hit hard this past week. It’s the same story we have seen many times before. As gold climbed in price, we witnessed in recent weeks the huge build-up of open interest on the Comex. The gold cartel, which is a group of bullion banks acting under the direction of the US government, was selling whatever paper promises (i.e., futures contracts, which are simply paper representations of gold but not gold itself) it felt were needed to try slowing and then capping gold’s advance." .. chart ... Even though I have been and remain bullish, in the last letter I advised not to “go out and bet the ranch” because the “gold cartel has been out in force, trying to cap the gold price.” In other words, I do not recommend using leverage if you choose to trade gold (i.e., trying to profit from its price fluctuations, in contrast to the long-term wealth accumulation strategy of buying gold month-in and month-out). Leverage is dangerous, as we saw over the past four days. No doubt there were a lot of margin calls issued, with the consequence that there was much forced selling. But the capping by the gold cartel and the subsequent rush for liquidity does not diminish gold’s long-term prospects, a fact no doubt understood by the long-term accumulators of physical metal who now find gold significantly cheaper than it was just a short week ago. Gold did not reach my $720 target by the end of February. But I expect that we will see that price soon enough, probably within the next two months. ...more: http://www.dollarcollapse.com/iNP/view.asp?ID=49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted March 9, 2007 Report Share Posted March 9, 2007 I'm surprised you are. Any explanation? Perhaps we can continue this on the gold thread. To me, a violent devaluation of the US$ is just a matter of time. The sub-prime woes are only the beginning of the unraveling of the credit bubble. If (when?) the US is hit by a recession later this year, I think there is not a shadow of a doubt that Bernanke will get into his helicopter and drop interest rates. This will light a rocket under the POG. Very briefly and without charts (so it will probably make my explanation of something v simple hard to follow) the reasons are basically as follows: Firstly, the correction from the spring 2006 high does not appear big enough to correct the massive rise from the late 90s. I think the 2006 high was a pretty important affair and one that warrants a correction of the whole upswing to that date. Looking at an admittedly poor chart of spot gold, it appears to have had a big wave down from the 2006 high which only lasted about 2 months and then an abc upwave since then. So it should be time now for the next down wave to at least parity or more likely below the $550odd lows of last year. Secondly, and forgetting EWs, markets often seem to make so called abcd corrective moves - i.e one wave down followed by a correction back up (but not to new highs) and then another wave down...giving an abcd shape if you letter each major turn point. Sometimes you get a second bite at the cherry, i.e the market starts to fall again in wave c-d, but then rises again to about the starting point - which is what we saw with gold. It started to fall last summer from the $675 region, but this proved to be a false breakout and it subsequently rose again back to that area a week or so ago to set up a so called gift trade (or second bit at the cherry). So if this theory holds we should get the last leg down now which can be of various lengths which i wont go into here, but should at least aim for parity with last year's low. Thirdly, stocks rarely, it seems to me, just fall hard in one straight leg down (like they did last week) and then carry on rising as before to new highs. More usually, they will correct in at least three simple legs or waves or whatever you want to call them. i.e, a leg down followed by a correction and then another leg down - as they did last May/June in fact. So, at the least i expect we will see another leg down in stocks shortly. Gold often seems to follow stocks - see the charts from last May/June of gold and stocks. So this would suggest we might see another leg down in gold. Fourthly, the economy seems to be slowing pretty fast right now (esp US) and i think there is potential for inflation to subside pretty quickly, even if just temporarily. This should help bring gold down. Even if Bernanke drops interest rates, that is no guarantee that money supply and prices will rise, the relationships are far more complicated than that. Plus, dont forget, despite the talk on this site, inflation to my mind doesnt seem to be about to take off. Bonds seem quite relaxed about the whole spectre of inflation....not what we saw in the 70s (a period that a lot of people seem to think we are mirroring now). Fifthly, yes we could well see a violent depreciation of the dollar, but i think not just yet. If gold corrected as quickly as it did last May/June, then it could get to the $550 area or lower in just a few short months and then we could still get a dollar depreciation this year. Finally, at the highs of late Feb this year, investor sentiment was at the highest levels since the May 06 top and that is near record levels of bullishness. Not a set up for further string rises. I do accept though, as i mentioned a few days ago, that some market timers have turned bearish gold a bit quicker than i would have liked. In summary, not suggesting anyone should turn bearish gold on the basis of what i have said, but rather just trying to explain why i am bearish gold right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted March 9, 2007 Report Share Posted March 9, 2007 I certainly agree that another leg down in stocks will drag gold down as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
room305 Posted March 13, 2007 Report Share Posted March 13, 2007 Gold seems to have held up pretty well today despite a sell-off on the main indices and a Yen rally against the dollar. I certainly wouldn't rule out another leg down but the potential for a big sell-off is limited. There has been an enormous amount of cash flow out of the Rydex Precious Metal fund (something like 18% of total assets in four days during last week's sell-off). The Hulbert gold timer signal went extremely bearish on gold (the average gold timing news letter had 0% exposure to gold by the end of last week). Looks like complete capitulation on the part of gold bulls and such overwhelming bearish sentiment on gold must be extremely bullish in the medium term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted March 14, 2007 Report Share Posted March 14, 2007 Mark Hulbert: Gold timers throwing in towel, a bullish sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 14, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2007 GOLD forecast ==== I think we are in a "C" wave: If so, it should end somewhere between $600 and $635. My best guess is $620. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 16, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2007 I picked this up in today's SCMP: "US treasury data show that 81 per cent of net foreign inflows were in so-called agaency debt sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and US corporate bonds, which include asset-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities. These securities are packed in collateralised debt obligations" (CDO's) the article goes on: "Those staggering flows could slow... Lehman Brothers estimate that the total market for sub-prime-related CDO's has lost US$18 billion to $23 billion of its value owing to the recent widening (of spreads) for sub-prime and CDO's." Note: America's current account deficit was US$857 billion last year- 6.5% of GNP- The US needs $3-4 billion per day to fund this deficit. And this has largely been met by foreign purchased of US debt - most CDO debt, it turns out If these flows stop: What happens to the Dollar?/ Whence goes Gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sigmadelta Posted March 16, 2007 Report Share Posted March 16, 2007 If these flows stop:What happens to the Dollar?/ Whence goes Gold? Something I'm interested in is whether it's inevitable that the US will have no choice but to continue to create paper. It makes my head hurt thinking about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Financial Planner Posted March 21, 2007 Report Share Posted March 21, 2007 Could someone pls put up a day chart? ta fp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 21, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2007 try : http://www.kitco.com -or my other site: http://basic1.easily.co.uk/039016/00B012/stgolds.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted March 22, 2007 Report Share Posted March 22, 2007 On gold, Tom O'Brian is firmly bullish. A caller queried whether we may go back to 640, and he thinks not; "it's topside from here". In my own view, we need to go through 670 with convinction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Financial Planner Posted March 30, 2007 Report Share Posted March 30, 2007 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article636.html "ST its in $645 - $670 range" "If it stays above $610 on a close it'll go above last year's $732" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Financial Planner Posted April 4, 2007 Report Share Posted April 4, 2007 V interesting spike up on NY open today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 11, 2007 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2007 Gold Fields of South Africa May Get Buyout Offer From Pastorini-Led Group (Bloomberg) -- U.S. financier Edward Pastorini may lead a bid for Gold Fields Ltd., the world's fourth-largest gold producer, to tap the rising price of bullion. and this... Apollo snaps up Xstrata aluminium arm US private equity group agrees $1.15bn deal (FT.com$) = = interesting to see this buyout mania spreading to mining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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