Hong Kong property outlook - and Data Base

[drbubb]

"What can you get for under $3 million?"

 

It took us a long search to find it...

 

You can get a nice modernised 2BR flat in an older building (just less than 40 years old) about 5 minutes walk from Olympic station in Tai Kok Tsui - and then rent it for more than 4% Gross Rental yield.

 

Here are some comparative figures:

 

"The TC/TKO Through Line" : using Tower 3, 30-C Flat Bank Valuations (mostly)

====

Area: Estate Name == : -04/14- : %-TKT : Flat== : BkValue : SFgr/net : PSF-net : Effic% : Yrs :

TKO : ParkC/Cent.Hts. : $07,712 : 63.2% : T3-30C : $7.47 M : 899/691 : 10,810 : 76.9% : 10 :

TK-- : Tsui Woo Terr.-- : $11,936 : 97.9% : T3-25C : $6.07 M : 585/489 : 12,413 : 83.6% : 35 :

TKT : ParkAv/CentPark : $12,198 : 100% : T3-30C : $12.3 M : 943/659 : 18,665 : 69.9% : 12 :

TsYi : Tierre Verde ---- : $09,628 : 78.9% : T3-30C : $8.90 M : 951/765 : 11,634 : 80.4% : 14 :

TCC: Caribbean Coast : $05,795 : 47.5% : T3-30C : $4.31 M : 680/507 : $8,501 : 74.6% : 11 :

 

(Adding in the property mentioned above):

TKT : "Older Building"-- : $06,338 : 52.0% : XXhi-# : $2.70 M : 426/326 : $8,282: 76.5% : 38 :

 

When you consider the location as well as the lower transactional cost (stamp duties, etc), as well as the yield, I think the purchase may make sense even in the current soft market. After all, where are you going to put your money?

 

I really do not get why anyone would pay $12,000 gross to buy an Old Flat in Taikoo Shing, when they can buy something nicer than that for under $7,000 in TKT. In the long run, which is going to be the better location??

 

If you are willing to have a longer commute (than TKT) to HK prime locations, I might also suggest looking in Yuen Long.

[drbubb]

Biggest Gains - Does New beat Convenience ?

 

UPDATE : No Clear answers

 

Date== : =CCLI= : TaiKoo : ParkCnt : ParkIsl : PkA/CP:CaribCst

Efficiency: ---NA--- 87.32% : 75.17%: 76.95%: 74.31% : 74.58% :

01/01/12 : 095.47 : $9,160 : $6,139 : $5,457 : 10,399 : $4,631 :

12/30/12 :: NetSF : 13,359 : 10,024 : $8,558 : 15,020 : $8,116 :

12/30/12 : 115.78 : 11,665 : $7,535 : $6,585 : 11,161 : $6,053 :

12mo chg: +21.3%: +27.3%: +22.7%: +20.7%: +7.33%: +30.7%:

====

04/14/13 : 120.12 : 11,936 : $7,713 : $6,578 : 12,198 : $5,795 :

16mo chg: +25.8%: +30.3%: +25.6%: +20.5%: +17.3%: +25.1%:

from 1'13: + 3.75%: +2.32%: +2.36%: - 0.11%: +9.29%: - 4.36%:

==========

 

Over the 15 1/2 month period, "Convenience" won,

with Taikoo Shing, outperforming "newer" TKO.

 

But not on the West Kowloon side,

where less convenient CC outperformed PkAve by a large amount.

However, CC fell by more than the other Estates during 2013 so far.

 

I say: "No clears." But maybe the "convenient" location (near XRL) and

modernity of the Park Avenue, will allow it to outperform as we approach

the completion of the XRL in 2-3 years time.

 

/see: http://hongkong.asia...nvenient-tk-fh/

[drbubb]

In reaction to:

Loyd, centadata at 100 means 9K-9.5K psf in Mid levels.. which is still very high..

for a 3% mortgage rate.. to make a decent return.. 100 is not out of reach..

 

(Was posted):

I would expect some strong buying if Mid-Levels hits $10,000 psf.

And so if gdep's calculations are right, then maybe above CCL-100.

 

I note that

Taikoo Shing is now / Div. by CCLI :

Gross : $11,878 / 118.71 = 100.06

Net --- : $13,603 / 118.71 = 114.59

=====

That suggests that TS will be almost exactly $10,000 psf-Gross, if CCLI hits 100.

 

... and maybe $11,459 psf-Net at the same time.

 

Is Mid-Levels really just 5-10% above a... er, "tired" place like Taikoo Shing?

[drbubb]

In response to a comment on AX:

"OTP today you can buy property in Mid level at 12-13k psf range.. around 5-10% premium to Taikoo Shing."

I don't doubt this one bit - But I do wonder how representative a 5-10% premium would be for all of Mid-Levels?

.

Here are some figures for some Benchmark MId-Levels estates, as appear on the Centaline Index.

.

Week : CCLI--- : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell: MLave // TaikSh. (all Psf, Gross)

====

.

04/21: 118.71: 16,036 : 19,788 : 24,101 : 23,712: 20,909 / 11,878

/ CCLI : 1.000 - : 135.01 : 166.69: 203.02: 199.75 : 176.14 / 100.06

.

Using the average of these Four Properties, ML is a 76% premium to Taikoo Shing.

.

So if TK hits $10,000 at CCLI-100, then ML properties (ave.of 4) would not be at $10,000, or like: $17,600 psf.

And ML Gross-psf prices will not hit $10,000 until CCLI falls far below that. I calculate that CCLI would need to come down to maybe 57. That's an unlikely prospect IMHO.

.

Before leaving this, I also want to look at prices expressed in Per SF, Net - which follows:

.

Week : CCLI--- : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell: MLave // TaikSh. (all Psf, Net)

====

.

Efficiency----- : 82.24%: 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%: 80.61%/ 87.31%

04/21: 118.71: 19,500 : 25,062 : 30,791 : 28,399: 25,938 / 13,603

/ CCLI : 1.000- : 164.27 : 211.12 : 259.38 : 239.23 : 218.50 / 114.59

.

.

Where's the Top?

I believe that there is an 18 year cycle operating in the HK property market, and I do not see a peak until 2015-2017. If true, we may see at least one more wild ride to the upside before HK property rolls over.

[drbubb]

Property shares (esp. HK-12) have provided "clues" on prior turns in the Long Cycle

.

(1)

.

(2)

.

Update : Henderson Properties / HK-12 ... update : Logscale ...

[drbubb]

HOW SWEET IT WAS... (from OTP at AX)

 

(sometimes you don't know how good you have it until you fall on hard times.)

 

I just had a very frank chat with one of the local agents here, whom I have know for a few years. He was moaning about the state of the market, and after hearing some figures from him, I can understand why.

 

He is one of the older agents, who has worked in the Olympic station area for a long time, at least back to 2008 when I first moved here.

 

He said the Sales and Purchase market is "almost dead." Normally, he would expect perhaps 100 or more Sales transactions in a month, for the whole of the Olympic station area. In April, there were only 9 (!) transactions. So far in May, there are only 4. This really isn't enough for the agents to live on, and many agents are now being let go. The rest are under big pressure, and do not see how and when it will improve.

 

 

I asked him about Rentals. He said that part of the market is "still okay", but it doesn't pay very well. On a $20,000 per month rent, they make only half a month: $10,000 commission. And that part of the market is also now a bit slow. A good month would be 150 rental transactions for modern buildings in the area, and last month was probably just over 100 (it's a slow time of year as well, I believe.)

 

The main problem is that tenants now have a lot of choice, and so can be slower to make their minds up. When flat owners saw the market was slowing down, those with vacant flats for sale decided to rent their flats out instead. So there is now an unusually large supply of flats to rent.

 

Will rents come down? He said that was possible, at least until the supply tightened. But there wasn't any significant drop in rents yet. (Note the extra supply at recently completed" Park Summit and Coronation seems to have been absorbed pretty well at this time.)

 

I am sympathetic, since every honest person should be able to make a living, and I know this guy works hard. I do expect that some agents are going to start getting pretty aggressive with sellers to lower their price, because some are truly desperate.

[drbubb]

CORRELATION: Between Rents and Prices

 

If you can't sell (because the market price for selling is going down), what you do is hold and rent at a higher price (unless you have to sell to recover some losses etc etc etc)...That's why it is always fun to see all those people hoping for the market to drop ...while in many cases, it means (at least in the beginning) higher rent...

 

Nice idea, but easily disproved by checking reality.

Pretty clear that rent rises when property prices rise... and when property prices fall, so does rent.

 

Clear that this happened in both 2008 and 2011 in the last slight property price declines. And both fell for around six years after 1997.

 

Plotting the Hong Kong Midland Property Price 100 vs Hong Kong Midland Realty Residential Rent since 1990....

 

 

(a good post / source): http://hongkong.geoe...read262338.html

[drbubb]

VERY SLOW - But not so slow as reported

 

 

The previous information that I got from an agent in the TST / Olympic station area and reported here was wrong. I met another agent over the weekend and she told me that she did not believe the slowdown in sales was nearly as much as I had been told. So I said I would check. And I have done that now.

 

From Modern buildings in the Olympic area the Average for 2012 was 80 Sales transactions per month. Sales are running far below that now, but nothing like as low as the first agent had told me.

 

Following summarises the data. Which has basically been slowing since the beginning of the year, and more since the "double whammy" in late February. In April, the Centaline data showed 22 Sales, down 72% from the 2012 average, not the 90%+ I had been told by the first agent.

 

Property--: 2012 : J-Apr'13

per month

========

MODERN

Metro H.V. : 30.6 : 10.5: - 65.7 %

Park Ave.. : 11.4 : 10.0: - 12.3 %

Island H.V : 10.6 : 5.8- : - 45.3 %

Harb. Grn : 8.9- : 5.0- : - 43.8 %

Hamp. Pl.. : 4.6- : 2.8- : - 39.1 %

Long Bch. : 3.1- : 2.8- : - 9.8 %

Other ----- : 10.4 : 5.9- : - 43.3%

=============

Olym.Area 79.6 Sales

 

2013 Jan : 54 : - 32.2% vs. 2012 Ave.

----- Feb. : 59 : - 25.9%

----- Mar. : 36 : - 54.8%

----- Apr . : 22 : - 72.4%

=======

Jan-Apr. : 42.8 : -46.2%

=====

 

 

Property--: 2012 : J-Apr'13

OLDER

Cosmo Est. : 5.6- : 4.8- : - 14.3 %

Charm.Gd. : 4.3- : 3.0- : - 30.2 %

Prosp. Gd. : 2.5- : 1.0- : - 60.0 %

 

Note: Prosperity Gardens is in the Kowloon Station area

[drbubb]

(Will they go on paying high rents?

If so, HK Property investors should see some steady demand):

 

Working expatriates like to stay in Hong Kong longer: poll

South China Morning Post - ‎5 hours ago‎

 

Hong Kong ranks behind only the United Arab Emirates as the most popular place - where professionals working abroad want to stay longer, a survey has found.

 

/see: http://www.scmp.com/...ong-longer-poll

[drbubb]

HK prices at record Gap to Sales

.

.

The gap between Hong Kong home prices and sales is the widest on record as new taxes, rising supply and the prospect of higher mortgage costs deter buyers in the world’s most expensive housing market.

.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-14/hong-kong-home-prices-at-record-gap-to-sales.html

[drbubb]

Centaline Chart ... .

.

The Centaline chart shows there is a danger of a good-sized Drop from the recent high

.

Centaline Index / Update : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

.

[drbubb]

Some Estates have already shown big drops:

 

.

Top : $9,440 - 2013/02/03

Low : $8,253 - 2013/05/05

Chg.: $1,187 / - 12.6 %

===

Latest $8,311 - 2013/05/12

This one, MHV, could drop to $8,000 or lower, but it is possible

that the bulk of the drop (for this year) has already occurred.

Discounts are most likely when Sellers are fearful, as now.

So buyers could pull down a bargain in coming weeks and months

with lowball bids.

====

/ Centaline index : : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

/ Historical Data- : : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

[drbubb]

Posted by OffThePeak on AX:

 

GOOD NEWS for Bulls ... How else can I describe this?

 

BOC cuts its best home loan rate to just 2.10 percent (on home loans exceeding HK$3 million.)

 

... following similar news by HSBC last week.

 

MEANTIME, a record at Tai Koo Shing (has Lloyd started buying again)?

 

718-sf unit at TKS, sold on Saturday for $10.9 million - or HK$15,181 per sf, net.

 

Note: HK$15,181 x 87.32% (efficiency) = HK$ 13,256

 

That's a stunning price - well above the last reported $11,912 by CL

/see chart: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=001600

[drbubb]

20% Price Fall ?

 

That's what Stanley Wong Yuen-fai, and "Advisor" to the Long Term Housing Steering Committee* is targetting.

 

"20% is not significant. Flat prices have risen 23 per cent since last year. So we are talking about whether the prices can return to last year's level.

 

Also: "The government should consider banning mortgages for second properties", if prices do not fall in a "reasonable adjustment."

 

Centaline said: They hope that Wong's comments do not represent the HK Government's views.

 

Centaline's Data shows (for the CCLI Index):

 

2012 Low- : $94.16 (01/08/12) : LOW

2013 High : 123.66 (03/17/13) : +31.3%

2012 Low- : 115.16 (01/06/13) : +22.3% / - 6.87% off High

Recent ---- : 120.14 (06/02/13) : + 27.6% / - 2.85% off High

 

===

*Wong is also Chairman of the Housing Authority's subsidised housing commmittee,

[drbubb]

Taikoo Shing Estate : HK Island's "most liquid bellwether"

.

Chart:

.

Taikoo Shing, last reported by CL at $12,256 (6/09)

.

+ That's only 0.43% below the double top high of $12,302 (3/17) /$12,309 (2/03)

+ The year's low of $11,326 (5/05) was only -7.99% off the High

+ More than 60,000 people live on the estate, about 1% of the SAR's population

+ Taikoo Shing Estate : Completed 27 years ago in 1986

+ Built on former site of Taikoo Dockyard

+ Swire Properties was kicked off with the closing of the dockyard in 1972

===

/more: http://en.wikipedia....ki/Taikoo_Shing

[drbubb]

WELCOME to visitors from AX. You may also want to look at the HK Property Developers thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15408

[drbubb]

Hong Kong Home Prices Decline Most Since 2008, Centaline Says

 

Hong Kong home prices fell the most in four-and-a-half years in the week ended July 7, on concerns that interest rates will begin to rise if the U.S. Federal Reserve phases out its monetary easing program later this year.

 

Prices fell 1.8 percent during the week, the most since November 2008, according to an index compiled by Centaline Property Agency Ltd., the city’s biggest closely held realtor by agent numbers.

 

Home transactions fell to the lowest since 1996 in the first half after the government doubled stamp duty taxes on property deals in February to quell concerns that an asset bubble is forming. Homebuyers’ sentiment was further damped by signals that interest rate will soon begin to increase as the U.S. economic recovery gather strength.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-12/hong-kong-home-prices-decline-most-since-2008-centaline-says.html

[drbubb]

Mid-levels, and Hong Kong Island are weak

 

Week : CCLI : TaikSh. : RobinPl: Clovell // Isl.Harb : ParkA : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC :

==== .

07/07: 119.69: 10,464 : 13,387 : 23,749 / 10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 :

06/30: 121.88: 12,021 : 13,502 : 23,950 / 10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 :

Peak

03/17: 123.66: 12,302 : 16,180 : 23,926 / 11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 :

YrEnd

12/30: 115.78: 11,665 : 14,985 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 :

======

Versus

YrEnd: +3.28%: -10.3%: - 10.7%: +5.81% / -2.84%: +6.80%: +13.1%: -1.10%: -1.17%: +3.04%

Peak-: - 3.21%: -14.9%: - 17.2%: - 0.74% / -10.6%: -3.34%: +3.44%: -1.06%: -0.97%: - 3.18%

 

Look at those HUGE drops in Taikoo Shing and Robinson Place, down -14.9%, and -17.2% from the peak.

 

Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung, is basically tracking the index, some 3% ahead of year-end, but 3% below the peak.

 

The real outperforming area seems to be Kowloon Central, where the Express Train to China will be completed in about 2 years time. Two properties (Sorrento and The Arch), were hovering around peak prices, while The Waterfront was more than 3% ABOVE the price at 3/17, when the Centaline Index hit its peak. Two properties in the Olympic area were mixed with Park Avenue outperforming the index since year-end by almost 4%, but Island Harborview, which is a longer walk from the XRL, down more, but only -2.8% off year-end prices.

[drbubb]

Where to Live: Time Trade-offs ... / New AX thread

 

I thought it might be worthwhile to start a new Thread, to introduce these calculations - and discuss the assumptions.

 

( "I live in HKI right now because the price difference between HKI and NT is not large enough to justify the loss of convenience that moving to NT would entail. However if prices were to drop substantially in NT while remaining stable in HKI I would consider moving there. " )

 

Where to Live ?

=====

It depends how much your time is worth.

 

Suppose it takes you work in Central, and it takes THIS long to travel from :

 

+ Office Central to your Mid-levels home: assume Robinson Place (25 mins)

+ Tung Chung MTR to Caribbean Coast, alternative home (15 mins)

ADD ON:

+ Walk: Office to MTR (10 mins)

+ MTR Journey to Tung Chung (27 mins)

======

= EXTRA TIME to Tung Chung : 27 Mins x 2-way journey = 54 mins (say 1 hour per day)

 

You lose about One Hour per day for the extra time to Tung Chung

 

HOW MUCH do you save?

Location : Price/ sf x 1,000 sf : x 3.5%: /Mo.s : Rent/mo :

Robin.Pl : 13,366 = $13.37 mn : $ 478k /12 : $39,000 :

Carib.Cs : $6,065 = $ 6.065 mn : $ 212k /12 : $17,700 :

=======

There are 21 working days in a Month.

To save 21 hours TRAVELING, you pay an extra : HK$ 21,300 or HK$ 1,014 per Hour

 

What is that extra "free" time worth to you.

Assume you have a 50 hour Work week, that's HK$ 50,000 per Month on Salary

 

If your salary is LESS than that, you should consider Tung Chung, and consider how your other activities outside work would be impacted

[drbubb]

 

 

 

 

==========

TURN-Timing : CCLI- : weekend / ParkAv : Ratio : IsHrbVw : MetHbV / TaikSh. : Ratio / CarCst : Ratio :

==========

H-1997-late : 102.93 : 10-19-97 /

L-1998-late : 045.71 : 10-11-98 /

H-1999-spr. : 057.23 : 04-25-99 /

L-2003-mid : 031.77 : 08-24-03 / e3,000 : 94.43E :

H-2005-mid : 056.07 : 06-26-05 / e6,000 : 107.0E : e5,700 : 4100e / e5,400: 96.31R / 3500e : 62.42R

L-2007-spr. : 054.87 : 05-20-07 / e5,100 : 92.95E : e4,800 : 3600e / e5,300: 96.59R / 2300e : 41.92R

H-2008-mid : 073.23 : 06-07-08 / e7,700 : 105.1E : e7,500 : 4800e / e8,000: 109.2R / 3500e : 47.79R

L-2008-end : 056.71 : 12-15-08 / e5,400 : 95.22E : e4,700 : 3500e / e5,000: 88.17R / 2500e : 44.08R

H-2011-cal. : 100.72 : 06-05-11 / 10,811 : 107.3R : 09,285 : 7,292 / 10,538 : 104.6R / 5,043 : 50.07R

L-2012-beg.: 094.16 : 01-08-12 / 09,654 : 102.5R : 08,762 : 6,615 / 09,160 : 97.28R / 4,610 : 48.96R

H-2013-mar : 123.66 : 03-17-13 / 12,439 : 100.6R : 11,428 : 8,919 / 12,302 : 99.48R / 6,441 : 52.09R

L-2013-may : 118.51 : 05-05-13 / 11,268 : 95.08R : 09,971 : 8,172 / 11,326 : 95.57R / 5,750 : 48.52R

Latest - July : 120.14 : 07-15-13 / 11,921 : 99.23R : 10,136 : 8,339 / 10,998 : 91.54R / 6,054 : 50.39R

====

TURN-Timing : CCLI- : weekend / ParkAv : Ratio : IsHrbVw : MetHbV / TaikSh. : Ratio / CarCst : Ratio :

 

====

Note: Highs and Low for specific estates may come later or earlier

 

http://www.greenener...showtopic=12663

[drbubb]

== SECOND COPY, just in case ==

 

DATABANK

 

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell // IslHarb : ParkA : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.

==== .

07/28: 120.95 120.29: 13,445 : 19,903 : 23,279 : 23,850 /10,076 : 11,850 : 14,920 : 15,186 : 22,183 : 6,021 : 12,001

07/21: 120.61 120.36: 13,374 : 19,799 : 23,157 : 23,725 /10,101 : 11,880 : 14,410 : 15,136 : 22,110 : 6,059 : 11,557

07/14: 120.14 119.82: 13,366 : 19,786 : 23,142 : 23,710 /10,136 : 11,921 : 14,401 : 15,126 : 21,910 : 6,054 : 10,998

07/07: 119.69 119.11: 13,387 : 19,818 : 23,180 : 23,749 /10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 : 10,464

06/30: 121.88 121.58: 13,502 : 19,987 : 23,377 : 23,950 /10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 : 12,021

06/23: 121.22 120.64: 13,416 : 19,861 : 23,229 : 23,800 /10,019 : 11,783 : 14,413 : 16,129 : 21,927 : 6,320 : 12,162

06/16: 119.96 118.69: 13,454 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,045 : 11,813 : 14,449 : 16,186 : 21,983 : 5,949 : 11,622

06/09: 120.74 119.57: 13,470 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,895 /10,072 : 11,845 : 14,463 : 16,186 : 22,004 : 6,360 : 12,256

06/02: 120.14 118.81: 13,429 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,822 /10,251 : 11,947 : 14,531 : 16,262 : 22,107 : 6,435 : 12,009

05/26: 119.06 118.31: 13,430 : 19,881 : 23,253 : 23,824 /10,026 : 11,649 : 13,760 : 15,031 : 21,826 : 6,130 : 11,847

05/19: 118.79 117.85: 16,070 : 19,830 : 23,193 : 23,763 // 9,971 : 11,585 : 13,751 : 15,021 : 21,851 : 5,883 : 11,912

05/12: 118.58 117.61: 16,066 : 19,825 : 23,188 : 23,758 // 9,981 : 11,597 : 13,752 : 15,021 : 21,852 : 6,032 : 11,772

05/05: 118.51 117.60: 16,089 : 19,853 : 24,180 : 23,791 /10,564 : 11,268 : 13,716 : 14,983 : 21,795 : 5,973 : 11,326

04/28: 118.84 118.08: 16,008 : 19,754 : 24,060 : 23,672 /10,673 : 12,150 : 13,755 : 15,024 : 21,857 : 5,877 : 11,710

04/21: 118.71 117.70: 16,036 : 19,788 : 24,101 : 23,712 /10,676 : 12,158 : 13,775 : 16,117 : 21,888 : 5,750 : 11,878

04/14: 120.12 119.35: 16,052 : 19,807 : 24,124 : 23,736 /11,207 : 12,198 : 13,807 : 16,155 : 21,939 : 5,795 : 11,936

04/07: 121.83 121.29: 16,080 : 19,843 : 24,168 : 23,779 /11,373 : 12,379 : 13,891 : 16,253 : 22,072 : 6,174 : 12,008

03/31: 123.01 122.22: 16,163 : 19,945 : 24,292 : 23,900 /11,419 : 12,430 : 13,956 : 16,329 : 22,176 : 6,160 : 12,131

03/24: 123.45 122.72: 16,175 : 19,960 : 24,311 : 23,919 /11,428 : 12,439 : 13,964 : 16,339 : 22,190 : 6,184 : 12,159

03/17: 123.66 122.98: 16,180 : 19,966 : 24,318 : 23,926 /11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 : 12,302

03/10: 122.09 121.41: 16,128 : 19,901 : 24,239 : 23,848 /11,413 : 12,423 : 13,916 : 16,283 : 22,114 : 6,420 : 11,519

03/03: 121.95 121.27: 15,168 : 19,889 : 24,224 : 23,834 /10,549 : 12,383 : 13,374 : 16,263 : 22,087 : 6,403 : 11,934

02/24: 121.64 120.97: 14,242 : 19,941 : 24,287 : 23,896 /10,917 : 12,147 : 13,168 : 16,227 : 22,037 : 6,325 : 11,939

02/17: 121.58 120.27: 14,241 : 19,940 : 24,286 : 23,894 /10,894 : 11,901 : 13,212 : 16,667 : 22,112 : 6,586 : 12,022

02/10: 121.73 120.41: 14,280 : 19,994 : 24,352 : 23,960 /10,889 : 11,896 : 13,211 : 16,666 : 22,111 : 6,350 : 11,805

02/03: 120.66 119.40: 13,692 : 19,900 : 24,237 : 23,847 /10,547 : 12,114 : 15,331 : 16,609 : 22,036 : 6,215 : 12,309

01/27: 119.13 117.60: 15,144 : 19,818 : 24,138 : 23,749 /10,670 : 11,039 : 15,262 : 16,685 : 21,937 : 6,336 : 12,149

01/20: 118.38 116.61: 15,133 : 19,803 : 24,120 : 23,731 /10,664 : 10,993 : 15,260 : 16,683 : 21,241 : 6,281 : 11,815

01/13: 115.93 114.29: 14,982 : 19,605 : 23,879 : 23,494 /10,429 : 10,751 : 13,108 : 16,490 : 22,215 : 6,202 : 11,214

01/06: 115.60 113.93: 14,994 : 19,621 : 23,898 : 22,244 /10,478 : 11,211 : 12,741 : 16,502 : 22,231 : 6,071 : 11,041

Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32%

12/30: Prices / NetSF : 18,221 : 24,835 : 30,512 : 26,639 /13,929 : 15,020 : 16,257 : 21,606 : 29,492 : 8,116 : 13,359

12/30: 115.78 114.25: 14,985 : 19,609 : 23,883 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,665

12/23: 115.18 113.61: 14,092 : 19,603 : 23,876 : 22,237 /10,514 : 11,719 : 12,753 : 16,332 : 22,210 : 5,957 : 11,429

12/16: 114.97 113.50: 14,072 : 19,574 : 23,840 : 22,024 /10,527 : 11,733 : 12,744 : 16,319 : 22,193 : 5,988 : 11,288

12/09: 114.57 113.20: 14,037 : 19,527 : 22,150 : 22,150 /10,229 : 11,699 : 12,715 : 16,283 : 22,144 : 5,995 : 10,892

12/02: 114.38 112.52: 14,035 : 19,523 : 23,778 : 22,146 /10,423 : 11,896 : 13,656 : 17,883 : 22,324 : 5,978 : 10,810

11/25: 115.05 113.11: 16,570 : 19,594 : 23,865 : 22,227 /10,293 : 11,749 : 13,633 : 17,853 : 22,286 : 6,042 : 11,590

11/18: 116.17 114.32: 16,597 : 19,626 : 23,904 : 22,264 // 9,815 : 11,584 : 13,602 : 17,811 : 22,234 : 6,198 : 11,695

11/11: 116.81 114.20: 16,717 : 19,768 : 25,410 : 22,424 // 9,984 : 11,784 : 14,531 : 16,714 : 22,466 : 6,361 : 11,528

11/04: 116.07 113.81: 16,666 : 19,708 : 23,167 : 22,356 // 9,975 : 11,646 : 12,887 : 16,680 : 22,420 : 6,194 : 10,911

10/28: 114.35 112.33: 16,564 : 19,587 : 23,025 : 22,039 // 9,925 : 10,805 : 12,736 : 15,744 : 22,906 : 6,137 : 11,461

10/21: 112.25 110.37: 16,336 : 19,318 : 22,708 : 21,735 // 9,864 : 10,738 : 12,649 : 15,583 : 23,432 : 6,146 : 11,317

10/14: 111.19 109.41: 15,804 : 19,268 : 22,649 : 21,679/ 10,048 : 10,897 : 12,901 : 15,555 : 20,753 : 5,814 : 11,091

10/07: 111.11 109.21: 14,469 : 19,337 : 22,730 : 21,756 // 9,780 : 11,298 : 12,407 : 16,922 : 20,729 : 5,904 : 10,798

09/30: 110.14 108.55: 14,400 : 19,246 : 22,623 : 21,652/ 10,018 : 10,804 : 12,341 : 15,017 : 20,620 : 5,657 : 11,485

09/23: 109,81 107.88: 14,478 : 19,348 : 22,745 : 21,770/ 10,099 : 10,892 : 12,809 : 15,602 : 21,015 : 5,628 : 10,700

09/16: 108.17 106.05: 14,340 : 19,164 : 22,528 : 21,563/ 10,089 : 10,880 : 12,784 : 15,572 : 20,975 : 5,556 : 10,262

09/09: 108.80 107.02: 14,343 : 19,169 : 22,534 : 21,568 // 9,976 : 10,785 : 11,176 : 15,506 : 19,828 : 5,498 : 10,578

09/02: 107.99 105.85: 14,360 : 19,191 : 22,559 : 18,625 // 9,952 : 10,837 : 11,891 : 16,102 : 19,822 : 5,561 : 10,582

08/26: 106.89 105.17: 14,324 : 19,144 : 22,504 : 18,580 // 9,622 : 11,021 : 11,811 : 15,995 : 22,319 : 5,404 : 10,538

08/19: 107.18 105.22: 14,342 : 19,168 : 22,532 : 18,603 // 9,671 : 10,741 : 12,197 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,447 : 10,893

08/12: 106.85 104.85: 14,311 : 19,126 : 22,483 : 18,563 // 9,638 : 10,815 : 12,324 : 16,031 : 22,582 : 5,412 : 10,292

08/05: 105.78 103.33: 14,313 : 19,128 : 22,486 : 18,565 // 9,659 : 10,988 : 12,822 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,162 : 10,208

07/29: 106.54 103.71: 14,375 : 19,212 : 22,584 : 18,646 // 9,663 : 11,145 : 12,879 : 16,123 : 20,313 : 5,345 : 10,689

07/22: 104.93 101.99: 14,275 : 19,978 : 22,426 : 18,516 // 9,362 : 11,096 : 12,831 : 16,063 : 20,124 : 5,123 : 10,211

07/15: 104.25 101.41: 12,156 : 19,067 : 22,414 : 18,506 // 9,247 : 10,960 : 12,759 : 15,974 : 20,011 : 5,114 : 10,061

07/08: 105.01 102.33: 12,511 : 19,078 : 22,427 : 18,516 // 9,262 : 10,978 : 12,772 : 15,990 : 20,031 : 5,031 : 10,759

07/01: 105.46 103.13: 12,586 : 19,193 : 22,562 : 18,628 // 9,300 : 10,976 : 12,762 : 15,491 : 20,569 : 5,179 : 10,518

06/24: 104.60 102.33: 12,489 : 19,045 : 22,387 : 18,484 // 9,241 : 10,906 : 12,712 : 15,430 : 20,487 : 5,185 : 10,546

06/17: 104.14 102.01: 12,435 : 18,963 : 22,291 : 18,404 // 9,232 : 10,896 : 12,686 : 15,399 : 18,599 : 5,110 : 10,530

06/10: 103.82 101.35: 12,457 : 18,997 : 22,330 : 18,437 // 9,225 : 10,589 : 12,699 : 15,415 : 18,618 : 5,070 : 10,185

06/03: 104.01 101.85: 12,455 : 18,993 : 22,326 : 18,433 // 9,252 : 10,620 : 12,686 : 15,398 : 18,598 : 5,205 : 11,093

05/27: 104.00 101.72: 13,777 : 19,733 : 22,334 : 18,440 // 9,643 : 10,710 : 12,740 : 15,465 : 18,678 : 5,253 : 10,659

05/20: 103.94 101.89: 13,697 : 18,052 : 22,306 : 18,416: 10,004 : 10,404 : 12,716 : 15,435 : 18,642 : 5,137 : 10,877

05/13: 103.35 101.46: 13,698 : 17,972 : 22,206 : 18,334 // 9,798 : 10,367 : 12,401 : 15,314 : 17,941 : 5,083 : 10,186

05/06: 102.89 101.40: 13,588 : 17,828 : 22,028 : 18,187 // 9,967 : 10,532 : 12,295 : 14,219 : 17,491 : 5,013 : 10,719

04/29: 101.12: 98.90 : 13,579 : 17,815 : 22,012 : 17,031 // 9,841 : $9,904 : 11,634 : 14,648 : 17,423 : 5,054 : : 9,922

04/22: 102.17 100.05: 13.644 : 17.901 : 22,118 : 17,113 // 9,793 : 10,022 : 11,636 : 14,651 : 17,426 : 5,221 : 10,663

04/15: 102.50 100.71: 13,610 : 17,856 : 22,064 : 17,856 // 9,390 : 10,442 : 11,661 : 14,682 : 17,463 : 5,017 : 10,886

04/08: 101.79: 99.76 : 13,800 : 17,866 : 22,075 : 17,080 // 9,493 : 10,477 : 11,668 : 15,102 : 17,473 : 4,865 : 10,581

04/01: 101.17: 99.15 : 13,795 : 17,860 : 22,067 : 17,074 // 9,550 : 10,401 : 11,641 : 14,441 : 18,548 : 4,871 : 10.384

03/25: 100.06: 97.97 : 13,723 : 17,766 : 21,952 : 16,985 // 9,296 : 10,105 : 11,346 : 13,907 : 18,359 : 4,926 : 10,373

03/18 : 99.17 : 96.75 : 12,738 : 17,747 : 21,928 : 16,966 // 9,230 : 10,160 : 11,380 : 13,949 : 18,414 : 4,766 : : 9,850

03/11 : 98.41 : 95.72 : 12,691 : 17,682 : 21,848 : 16,904 // 9,165 : 10,089 : 11,358 : 15,071 : 19,152 : 4,736 : : 9,615

03/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 // 9,029 : $9,937 : 11,244 : 14,269 : 18,960 : 4,751 : : 9,728

02/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,449 : $9,638 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 21,504 : 4,808 : : 9,702

02/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,580 : $9,784 : 11,160 : 13,048 : 20,058 : 4,770 : : 9,499

02/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 // 8,659 : $9,874 : 11,210 : 13,107 : 20,148 : 4,768 : 10,038

02/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 // 8,576 : $9,779 : 11,185 : 13,078 : 20,103 : 4,790 : : 9,873

01/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 // 8,770 : $9,663 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 20,031 : 4,730 : : 9,884

01/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 // 8,762 : $9,654 : 11,152 : 13,039 : 20,043 : 4,871 : : 9,875

01/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 // 8,762 : $9,655 : 11,146 : 13,032 : 20,032 : 4,667 : : 9,864

01/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 // 8,780 : $9,674 : 12,250 : 13,060 : 20,075 : 4,630 : : 9,295

01/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 // 9,135 : 10,399 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,378 : 4,631 : : 9,160

12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 // 9,100 : 10,147 : 12,431 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610 : : 9,877

12/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 // 9,109 : 10,157 : 12,436 : 13,258 : 20,379 : 4,620 : : 9,882

12/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 // 8,950 : $9,980 : 12,379 : 13,196 : 20,285 : 4,619 : 10,357

12/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 // 9,016 : 10,054 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,131 : 4,834 : 10,379

 

Historical Data : http://202.72.14.52/...rchHistory.aspx

[drbubb]

West Kowloon Rentals - per SF

(Hermitage, Victoria Towers)

.

Mo : Herm : Vic.Tw :

('12)

05 : $ 29.3 : $ 27.7 :

06 : $ 30.6 : $ 27.7 :

07 : $ 33.0 : $ 29.4 :

08 : $ 35.1 : $ 30.4 :

09 : $ 35.9 : $ 28.2 :

10 : $ 34.5 : $ 28.3 :

11 : $ 35.8 : $ 29.2 :

12 : $ 36.8 : $ 28.4 :

('13)

01 : $ 34.6 : $ 29.8 :

02 : $ 33.8 : $ 27.7 :

03 : $ 33.6 : $ 29.0 :

04 : $ 35.0 : $ 28.7 :

05 : $ 37.4 : $ 29.0 :

06 : $ 31.8 : $ 28.3 :

[drbubb]

What happened at Caribbean Coast last week? Index: $5,342 - XX% in once week

[drbubb]

What happened at Caribbean Coast last week?

.

Index at 8/11/2013 : $5,343 - 9.97% from $5,935 in one week

Down from $6,236 (7/07/13) - that's - 14.32%

.

.

Reportedly: There was some talk about a cheap sale due to an "incident" in one of the flats.

.

[drbubb]

PRICE CUTS ARE HERE ! ... the predicted cuts (in new properties) have arrived

 

Examples:

========

Park Signature : New World---- : 68 Kung Um Rd., Yuen Long : 328 flats : HK$ 9,416 psf, net

The Rise ------- : Cheung Kong : ?? --------------. , Tsuen Wan : ??? flats : HK$ 8,742 psf, net (after discounts)

 

Park Signature ultimately has 1,620 units, and an entry price of HK$2.5 million

 

Note that these "discounts" are so far confined to the New Territories, in less convenient locations

 

There was a comment in the SCMP article:

"Some areas... will see abundant new supply and prices will fall."

Specific areas mentioned were: Tseung Kwan O and Yuen Long.

 

Major projects coming are:

+ 1,419 flats in Tung Chung

+ 911-flats at Century Gateway II in Tuen Mun.