Hong Kong property outlook - and Data Base

[drbubb]

 

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.

Numb.: ( #1) (#2,4): ( --#6): (--#7): (--#8) : (--#9)/ (--#7) (--#8): (-#12) : (--#13): (-#14) (#-3) : (#21)

==== . .

12/07: 131.61 132.65: 15,470 : 19,408 : 24,716 : 22,200 /11,731: 12,334 : 13,879 : 15,805 : 21,654 : 6,681 : 14,032 :

11/30: 130.46 131.44: 15,447 : 19,379 : 24,679 : 22,167 /11,650: 12,430 : 13,910 : 15,841 : 21,703 : 6,275 : 12,678 :

 

Comment:

Wow!
Latest figure released today:

TAIKOO SHING : Adjusted Unit Price: HK$14031.83 Announced on 2014/12/12
Prev. Week: $12,678 - that's up 10.7% in one week!
This estate has been an interesting benchmark to watch.
The jump could be a "one week wonder", or something more meaningful
> http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

[leviathan]

Every Picture Tells a Story – Hong Kong and UK House Prices

 

Different markets same 18 year house price cycle – 9 years apart?

 

Hong Kong Centaline Price Index

 

 

 

http://hk.centadata.com/cci/images/ccli_chart.png

 

Nationwide UK House Price Index

 

 

 

 

Not sure if the charts come out ok

[leviathan]

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs/generated/homepage.png

[leviathan]

UK (excluding London) has now definitively bottomed and Hong Kong is in the very last leg up into a blow off top like the UK in 2007 prior to the inevitable crash and 4 years of real price falls. Look at the 18 month of price uncertainty in UK 2004-2005 and the final blow off top in 2007 and compare to now in HK where 18 months of sideways price action (start 2013 to mid 2014) is now being resolved to the upside. If it follows UK pattern then 18 final months of rapidly accelerating price increases to sometime in 2015-2016 and will be followed by crash and 4 years of real house price corrections.

[drbubb]

Every Picture Tells a Story – Hong Kong and UK House Prices

Different markets same 18 year house price cycle – 9 years apart?

Hong Kong Centaline Price Index

 

http://hk.centadata.com/cci/images/ccli_chart.png

 

Nationwide UK House Price Index

 

Not sure if the charts come out ok

 

Normally, the cyclical students say: 14-years up and 4 years down

So:

1997 + 18 = 2015

Or:

2003 + 14 = 2017

Thus:

I expect a Peak in 2015-2017 :

[drbubb]

SUPPLY SURGE in Hong Kong?

 

Target for New Homes raised to 480,000 by 2025 - says SCMP

 

"More public and private flats are to be built in the next decade -

but critics say its not enough and not all sites are secured"

 

+ The boost is only 10,000 - to 480,000 by 2025

+ HK is still "having difficulties finding enough land" (and get planning permission)

+ So totals are not guaranteed.

 

BREAKDOWN:

: 190,000 - private housing (almost 20,000 p.a.)

: 200,000 - public rental housing

: 090,000 - subsidised flats, for sale (where the extra 10K were added)

[drbubb]

KENNEDY TOWN Rent Rise?

 

The SCMP is expecting a 3-5% rise in Kennedy Town rents, thanks to the opening of the new MTR station there

 

It is due to be opened Dec. 28th. Some who want to rent there, may be wise to sign leases during the "quiet" holiday season

 

Some think that the rents have already gone up, since the Rents there have been firm since the line was announced 5 years ago.

But I reckon that more potential tenants will be willing to look there, because it is NOW more convenient to reach.

 

Kennedy Town has attracted many expats, since it emerged as a magnet for eating and drinking places, about two years ago.

 

RENTS have been firm all over HK, for most of this year.

A chart in today's SCMP shows a rise over the least 6-9 months :

 

+ From about $23.60, to perhaps $25.20 per sf - that's a 6.8% rise.

[drbubb]

Want to buy in Tung Chung?

Now may be your moment

 

"Sun Hung Kai Properties will sell some of its new homes at prices below secondhand flats in the area"

 

A 412-sellable-sf One-BR unit costs $3.69 million

 

Or HK$8,903 pssf after all sweetners

 

By comparison: Apts for resale are offered at HK$8650 or $10,780 pssf (per Centatline)

 

I see different figures in the Centaline index for Caribbean Coast.

But the SHKP offering has pushed prices down there:

 

Latest Caribbean Coast : Gross : $6,160 / Net : $8,259 pssf

 

Historical :

"the first batch of units at The Visionary... were sold for HK$7,671 pssf last Nov.2013"

 

Week : CCLI : CMMI: RobinPl / IslHarb ParkAv /C'ribC : TaikSh.

==== . .

12/21: 132.69 133.76: 15,524 /11,155: 12,664 / 6,160 : 13,504 < Psf, Gross

11/30: 130.46 131.44: 15,447 /11,650: 12,430 / 6,275 : 12,678

10/26: 129.39 130.04: 15,510 /11,460: 12,308 / 6,356 : 12,668

09/28: 128.14 128.33: 15,414 /11,687: 11,807 / 6,346 : 12,705

. . .

06/29: 121.19 121.42: 14,044 /10,490: 11,560 / 6,081 : 12,134

. . .

03/30: 117.22 116.40: 13,695 /10,342: 11,405 / 5,695 : 11,392

. . .

Efficiency -NA- --NA -: 82.24% /74.89% 74.31%/ 74.58%: 87.32%

12/29: Prices / NetSF: 17,519 / 14,397: 16,586 / 7,734 : 12,524 < Pssf

12/29: 119.07 118.19: 14,407 / 10,783: 12,325 / 5,768 : 10,936 < Psf, Gross

11/24: 120.39 119.64: 13,672 / 10,499: 12,000 / 5,961 : 10,864

10/27: 119.50 118.67: 12,717 / 10,576: 11,958 / 5,768 : 10,869

Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% /74.89%: 74.31%/ 74.58%: 87.32%
12/30: Prices / NetSF :18,221 / 13,929 : 15,020 / 8,116 : 13,359 < Pssf
12/30: 115.78 114.25: 14,985 / 10,432 : 11,161 / 6,053 : 11,665 < Psf, Gross

[drbubb]

HUGE SURPLUS predicted in Hong Kong (To be Used for Housing?)

 

HK govt believes there will be budget surpluses in the next three years

 

2014-15 : Surplus estimate raised from HK$9.1 Billion to $30 Billion (/7.2 million = HK$4,167 per person)

 

But: HK "needs to build 200,000 public housing units"

And it "still lacks $100 Billion needed"

 

More Than One Million Living in Poverty in Hong Kong

[Traineeinvestor]

Given the government's track record of making wildly inaccurate budget forecasts and equally impressive record of squandering taxpayer's money, I place precisely zero reliance on the forecast of budget surpluses.

 

HK already has more people living in free or heavily subsidised housing that in private sector housing - when will it stop?

[Traineeinvestor]

SHK sold all 300 flats in it's latest Tung Chung development in less than 7 hours: http://www.scmp.com/...ties-sold-out-7

"Properties on sale included flats with one or two bedrooms and net floor areas ranging from 408 to 645 sq ft, priced at HK$4 million to HK$6 million.

Many buyers had their eyes on the smaller one-bedroom flats, which had sold out by early afternoon, according to the property agents.

The cheapest flat was a 412 sq ft unit on the first floor priced at HK$4.09 million before the discount - or HK$9,948 per square foot in terms of saleable area. After the discount of up to 10.5 per cent, the price would be HK$3.66 million, or HK$8,904 per square foot."

13,800 people registered as prospective buyers of the units.

This bit at the bottom of the article caught my attention:

"Midland Realty expected average home prices in the New Territories to go up by 10 per cent over the next year, passing the HK$10,000 per square foot mark."

[drbubb]

Time to Sell?

There seems to be a rush of people who want to view my flat.

 

I just bought one in Chiang Mai, so it may be time... If I can get the right price

 

The SHKP flats in Tung Chung had poor layouts - Maybe people are tired of waiting, and just want to buy.

If we get another leg up in the next few weeks, I expect we will soon see new cooling measures.

Then, economic issues may hit later in the year.

 

We are now in the 2015-17 "Window" where the cycles predicted a peak in HK prices

[leviathan]

Interesting anecdotals Dr B. Out of curiousity when you advertise a flat for sale do you consider the bank valuation (and if so which one Bank of China, Hang Seng or HSBC) as a good proxy for the asking price? If the market is entering an exuberance phase maybe xxx Bank valuation plus 5-10% would be a good asking price for the property?

[drbubb]

Interesting anecdotals Dr B. Out of curiousity when you advertise a flat for sale do you consider the bank valuation (and if so which one Bank of China, Hang Seng or HSBC) as a good proxy for the asking price? If the market is entering an exuberance phase maybe xxx Bank valuation plus 5-10% would be a good asking price for the property?

 

A good question.

Normally (for flats I sold before), I might tell the agents that I was looking for a price maybe 3-5% or so above bank valuation, but was prepared to negotiate.

But I would only negotiate against a "close offer". Then I would want to see a bid, at perhaps Bank Valuation, which I then might counter.

 

The agents are always asking "what's your bottom price" - and I would say it's near X, but get your client to view it first, and make an offer.

"I won't cut my price further, unless I see a firm bid or have an interest from a serious buyer."

(What the agents want you to do is lower your price before they view it; Give you a bid, and then ask you to lower it again. I won't play that game.)

 

My present flat, has a special Negotiating problem : the bank valuation is inaccurate, Both HSBC and BoCh are too low, I know this, because I have previously

refused offers, $200K and $250K ABOVE bank valuations - and I would have sold had the buyer moved up perhaps $40-50K. The agents negotiated poorly

in that case.

 

The problem is: my flat is on a high floor, and is a special unit. It has a 10% higher ceiling, and a much better view, than the flats below it,

Can you see that in these photos?

 

 

The way the bank values the flats in this building is; For each higher floor, the value improves by $40K or so. But the improvement (in the view)

which occurs at the level of my flat is very dramatic, and justifies a much bigger increment over the lower floors. This is as obvious as can be.

But most buyers resist paying much more than bank valuation. And the one flat (or so) above mine is not for sale, so there's no way to demonstrate

that enhanced value to the banks... until my flat is sold.

 

I am not sure how to address this problem, apart from waiting for the right buyer to come along. It will be interesting to see what happens.

I will get more flexible, if/when I think the market is getting close to the Top.

 

In my building, BofChina presently values my particular flat at $120k above HSBC. Based on recent sales, BofC's valuations are more accurate

for my building.

[leviathan]

Thanks for the detailed reply Dr B. Agreed on negotiating approach - request purchaser to view and make an offer is sound then once offer received you can counter offer if within a potential closing range. I suspect most purchasers do expect to conclude at close to bank valuation - and only move above this when the market is moving up quickly and they get scared they will have to pay more if they miss out on the property.

 

As for asking price I note a number on the market now at around 5-10% above bank valuation. My own experience is Bank of China valuation is typically the highest, HSBC in the middle and Hange Seng lowest but this may vary by block. In my block BoCh is 200k higher than HSBC valuation.

 

As to your specific challenge re bank valuation not reflecting view/ceiling I would expect either that eventually someone will recognise the additional value or just as likely if the market takes off towards the expected top then someone will pay a higher price anyway through exuberance.

[drbubb]

DATA BACK-UP. below ... in this post

=============

Yes.

It's a funny thing.

The potential buyers see the Flats (with same layout) on a lower floor.

They they tell the agent: "I don't want THIS flat (with a restricted view), I want the flat on the higher floor, with the better view."

Then they expect me to sell at / near the bank valuation. I refuse, of course.

I have been stuck in this standoff for a long time.

 

I have come very close to selling, and twice was negotiating "within the fees", meaning that if the Agents were willing to cut their

commission enough, I would have sold. The agent refuse to accept the required cut in commission.

 

Another negotiating Tip I have used:

I will usually draw the line, as say:

"I will not pay the full 1% commission below X.

If you want me to go below that price, then I will split the cost with you the agent.

So every HK$10,000, we cut from the price, HK$5,000 will come off your commission."

Since half of the reduction, comes the agent's pocket, he will push hard for the highest possible price,

 

=== ===

As for asking price I note a number on the market now at around 5-10% above bank valuation. My own experience is Bank of China valuation is typically the highest, HSBC in the middle and Hang Seng lowest but this may vary by block. In my block BoCh is 200k higher than HSBC valuation.

 

That is the same relationship I see in my building.

But for the older flat owned by my partner, I am seeing something different:

 

======= Old flat : Newer Bldg. (not my flat, ie a lower floor)
HSBC : $ 3,330K : $ 7,580K :
BofCh : $ 3,140K : $ 7,690K :
H vs B : +$ 190K : ( $ 110 K )

=======================

 

DATABANK BACK-UP

 

=== Hong Kong property Outlook - and Data Base ===

 

: Data-backup-no.341

 

"I think HK is on its way into a Long Cycle top... in the 2015-17 time frame" - post #4-Feb.2011

 

: update

Hi all, Kung Hei Fat Choi!

 

I have followed with interest for some time now, the excellent information this site gives. A lot of us appreciate the time Dr Bubb in particular, takes to share his knowledge and expertise.

I was hoping Dr Bubb and others could share some recent opinions on the state of the HK housing market and how the new government anti-speculative measures will impact the market long term. I'm looking at buying in Tung Chung at the moment but am cautious in being sucked into buying high in the cycle. Tung Chung has many positives (low vacancy/ new hospital/ macau bridge/ new airport construction projects, etc) but I guess there's risks to the world economy that may change things.

Caribbean Coast centadata link -- http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

In other posts on this site (especially UK discussions), I have seen various diagrams depicting the way and timing of cycles. Where would you describe HK's current status on the cycle? Is it time to wait for a correction? Seems a long way off with cashed up citizens and record low interest rates.



Look forward to generating fresh HK discussion here and also contributing further. Thanks!
= = =
DATABANK

 

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : ThArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.

Numb.: ( #1) ( #2,4): (---- #6) : (--- #7) : (--- #8) : (-- #9) / (--- #7) (--- #8): (- #12) : (-- #13): (-#14) (--#-3) : (---#21)

==== . .

05/10: 141.37 142.68: 16,540 : 19,897 : 24,380 : 22,761 /12,969: 12,893 : 16,610 : 17,121 : 22,153 : 6,155 : 13,883 :

05/03: 141.46 143.28: 16,452 : 19,792 : 24,251 : 22,640 /12,845: 13,366 : 16,569 : 16,679 : 25,687 : 6,975 : 14,409 :

04/26: 141.22 140.98: 15,525 : 19,924 : 24,413 : 22,792 /12,721: 13,315 : 16,558 : 16,625 : 22,813 : 6,260 : 14,347 :

04/19: 140.04 141.27: 15,497 : 19,890 : 24,370 : 22,752 /12,664: 13,255 : 16,503 : 16,608 : 22,737 : 6,591 : 14,228 :

04/12: 141.60 143.12: 15,507 : 19,902 : 24,386 : 22,766 /12,623: 13,614 : 16,591 : 16,697 : 22,848 : 6,941 : 14,240 :
04/05: 142.36 143.90: 15,526 : 19,927 : 24,416 : 22,794 /12,599: 13,336 : 15,210 : 16,742 : 22,910 : 7,005 : 14,997 :
03/29: 139.70 140.95: 15,432 : 19,807 : 24,269 : 22,657 /12,651: 12,994 : 14,335 : 16,578 : 22,658 : 6,984 : 13,906 :
03/22: 140.05 141.81: 15,403 : 19,768 : 24,222 : 22,613 /12,622: 12,950 : 14,298 : 16,535 : 22,626 : 7,012 : 14,485 :
03/15: 139.03 140.70: 15,381 : 19,740 : 24,187 : 22,581 /12,624: 12,951 : 14,280 : 16,514 : 22,598 : 7,008 : 13,363 :

03/08: 138.80 140.46: 15,315 : 19,656 : 24,084 : 22,485 /12,689: 13,019 : 14,298 : 16,535 : 22,627 : 6,965 : 13,663 :
03/01: 137.12 138.67: 15,638 : 19,619 : 24,039 : 22,442 /12,437: 12,761 : 14,187 : 16,406 : 22,450 : 6,883 : 13,630 :
02/22: 136.20 137.34: 15,679 : 19,670 : 24.101 : 22,500 /12,641: 11,792 : 14,180 : 16,398 : 22,439 : 6,573 : 13,319 :

02/15: 137.20 138.52: 15,672 : 19,661 : 24,091 : 22,491 /12,640: 11,791 : 14,193 : 16,412 : 22,459 : 6,570 : 13,932 :

02/08: 136.64 137.46: 15,719 : 19,719 : 24,161 : 22,557 /11,447: 12,821 : 14,244 : 16,473 : 22,541 : 6,255 : 13,515 :

02/01: 136.35 138.01: 15,557 : 19,517 : 23,914 : 22,325 /11,533: 12,649 : 14,197 : 16,146 : 23,227 : 6,692 : 13,945 :

01/25: 134.03 135.01: 15,587 : 19,554 : 24,903 : 22,368 /11,378: 12,466 : 13,970 : 17,147 : 21,797 : 6,538 : 12,627 :

01/18: 134.64 135.73: 15,608 : 19,581 : 24,936 : 22,398 /11,366: 12,311 : 13,997 : 17,179 : 21,838 : 6,079 : 13,586 :

01/11: 133.64 135.35: 15,570 : 19,532 : 24,875 : 22,343 /11,333: 12,465 : 14,030 : 17,331 : 21,891 : 6,145 : 12,554

01/03: 133.34 134.43: 15,556 : 19,515 : 24,853 : 22,323 /11,234: 12,546 : 13,953 : 15,674 : 21,770 : 6,538 : 12,883 :

st.2015

12/28: 132.45 133.50: 15,491 : 19,434 : 24,750 : 22,230 /11,083: 12,582 : 13,947 : 15,883 : 21,760 : 6,141 : 13,301 :

12/21: 132.69 133.76: 15,524 : 19,476 : 24,803 : 22,279 /11,155: 12,664 : 13,973 : 15,913 : 21,801 : 6,160 : 13,504 :

12/14: 132.81 133.92: 15,516 : 19,465 : 24,790 : 22,267 /11,134: 12,640 : 13,976 : 15,916 : 21,805 : 6,534 : 12,264 :

12/07: 131.61 132.65: 15,470 : 19,408 : 24,716 : 22,200 /11,731: 12,334 : 13,879 : 15,805 : 21,654 : 6,681 : 14,032 :

11/30: 130.46 131.44: 15,447 : 19,379 : 24,679 : 22,167 /11,650: 12,430 : 13,910 : 15,841 : 21,703 : 6,275 : 12,678

11/23: 130.16 131.47: 15,423 : 19,355 : 24,650 : 22,140 /11,599: 11,952 : 13,862 : 15,787 : 21,628 : 6,247 : 11,960

11/16: 129.61 130.95: 15,343 : 19,249 : 24,514 : 22,018 /11,444: 11,793 : 13,796 : 15,712 : 21,525 : 6,157 : 12,397

11/09: 129.69 130.55: 15,443 : 19,373 : 24,673 : 22,162 /11,428: 11,793 : 13,833 : 15,688 : 21,582 : 6,368 : 12,111

11/02: 129.40 130.11: 15,425 : 19,351 : 24,644 : 22,136 /11,564: 11,934 : 13,883 : 16,349 : 21,661 : 6,205 : 11,801

10/26: 129.39 130.04: 15,510 : 19,410 : 25,681 : 22,203 /11,460: 12,308 : 14,534 : 16,313 : 21,613 : 6,356 : 12,668

10/19: 129.38 130.11: 15,503 : 19,385 : 25,648 : 22,174 /11,438: 12,156 : 14,520 : 16,297 : 21,592 : 6,356 : 12,668

10/12: 129.83 130.46: 15,545 : 19,437 : 25,717 : 22,233 /11,539: 11,673 : 14,573 : 16,356 : 21,671 : 6,274 : 13,178

10/05: 127.65 128.40: 15,423 : 19,350 : 25,602 : 24,326 /11,773: 12,151 : 14,254 : 16,243 : 21,520 : 5,943 : 12,368

09/28: 128.14 128.33: 15,414 : 19,337 : 25,584 : 24,310 /11,687: 11,807 : 14,297 : 16,292 : 21,585 : 6,346 : 12,705

09/21: 127.46 128.06: 15,362 : 19,272 : 25,498 : 24,228 /11,712: 11,780 : 14,240 : 16,226 : 21,498 : 6,028 : 12,711

09/14: 126.80 127.51: 15,331 : 19,234 : 25,448 : 24,180 /11,652: 11,720 : 14,192 : 16,171 : 21,425 : 6,048 : 12,669

09/07: 126.14 126.59: 15,307 : 19,203 : 25,407 : 24,142 /11,463: 11,827 : 14,221 : 16,205 : 21,470 : 5,979 : 11,985

08/31: 126.94 127.33: 15,374 : 19,288 : 25,519 : 24,248 /11,282: 11,775 : 13,831 : 16,210 : 21,478 : 6,076 : 12,612

08/24: 126.20 126.64: 13,664 : 19,235 : 25,449 : 24,182 /11,227: 11,960 : 14,562 : 16,206 : 21,472 : 5,855 : 12,268

08/17: 125.31 125.59: 14,534 : 19,208 : 25,414 : 24,148 /11,036: 11,900 : 14,531 : 16,172 : 21,426 : 5,842 : 12,530

08/10: 125.66 125.64: 14,552 : 19,230 : 25,443 : 24,175 /11,143: 11,871 : 14,557 : 16,200 : 21,464 : 5,870 : 12,540

08/03: 124.00 124.22: 14.174 : 19,101 : 23,273 : 24,013 /11,036: 11,966 : 14,555 : 15,188 : 21,306 : 5,809 : 12,404

07/27: 123.54 124.24: 14,125 : 19,035 : 25,186 : 23,931 /11,119: 11,707 : 14,532 : 15,381 : 21,271 : 5,810 : 11,552

07/20: 123.20 123.70: 14,148 : 19,065 : 25,225 : 23,968 /10,995: 11,647 : 14,379 : 15,343 : 21,218 : 6,325 : 11,768

07/13: 123.36 123.87: 14,140 : 19,055 : 25,211 : 23,956 /11.009: 11,661 : 14,386 : 15,350 : 21,228 : 6,313 : 12,468

07/06: 123.32 123.71: 14,176 : 19,103 : 25,276 : 24,017 /11.017: 11,670 : 14,398 : 15,363 : 21,245 : 6,100 : 12,413

06/29: 121.19 121.42: 14,044 : 18,925 : 25,040 : 23,793 /10,490: 11,560 : 13,875 : 14,279 : 21,119 : 6,081 : 12,134

06/22: 121.16 121.12: 14,072 : 18,963 : 25,090 : 23,841 /10,526: 11,891 : 13,912 : 14,317 : 21,176 : 5,953 : 12,139
06/15: 119.89 119.81: 14,073 : 18,964 : 25,091 : 23,842 /10,602: 11,865 : 13,904 : 14,309 : 21,163 : 5,645 : 11,719

06/08: 119.23 119.11: 14,041 : 18,922 : 23,789 : 23,789 /10,950: 11,771 : 13,864 : 14,267 : 21,103 : 5,630 : 11,724

06/01: 118.37 118.04: 13,237 : 19,155 : 24,962 : 23,718 /10,748: 11,356 : 13,789 : 14,274 : 22,134 : 5,592 : 11,294

05/25: 119.07 118.64: 13,747 : 19,239 : 25,073 : 23,823 /10,624: 11,594 : 13,192 : 15,379 : 22,987 : 5,603 : 11,149

05/18: 118.56 117.75: 13,729 : 19,215 : 25,041 : 23,794 /10,373: 11,319 : 13,124 : 17,042 : 22,871 : 5,947 : 11,219
05/11: 118.86 117.90: 13,716 : 19,196 : 20,016 : 23,770 /10,361: 11,246 : 13,127 : 17,044 : 22,874 : 5,653 : 11,346
05/04: 118.12 117.22: 13,742 : 19,232 : 25,062 : 23,814 /10,286: 11,120 : 13,069 : 16,969 : 22,773 : 5,713 : 11,248
04/27: 118.40 117.57: 13,708 : 19,186 : 23,880 : 23,757 /10,189: 11,148 : 13,036 : 16,927 : 22,717 : 5,660 : 12,592

04/20: 118.31 117.41: 13,721 : 19,204 : 23,903 : 23,780 /10,206: 11,167 : 13,040 : 16,932 : 22,723 : 5,786 : 12,523

04/13: 119.04 117.94: 13,754 : 19,250 : 23,960 : 23,836 /10,291: 11,260 : 13,109 : 17,021 : 22,843 : 5,627 : 12,587

04/06: 118.82 117.99: 13,702 : 19,177 : 23,869 : 23,746 /10,254: 11,421 : 13,066 : 15,442 : 22,769 : 5,698 : 12,555

03/30: 117.22 116.40: 13,695 : 19,167 : 23,856 : 23,734 /10,342: 11,405 : 12,450 : 15,732 : 22,687 : 5,695 : 11,392

03/23: 118.42 117.73: 13,721 : 19,203 : 23,901 : 23,778 /10,407: 11,478 : 12,487 : 15,779 : 22,754 : 5,484 : 11,681

03/16: 118.25 117.60: 13,721 : 19,203 : 23,902 : 23,779 /10,405: 11,475 : 12,478 : 15,768 : 22,738 : 5,453 : 11,316

03/09: 117.18 116.29: 13,727 : 19,212 : 23,913 : 23,789 /10,439: 11,513 : 12,479 : 15,769 : 22,739 : 5,596 : 11,295

03/02: 118.02 117.12: 13,705 : 19,182 : 23,875 : 23,752 /10,379: 11,446 : 12,905 : 15,774 : 22,747 : 5,787 : 12,011

02/23: 117.77 116.91: 13,694 : 19,166 : 23,855 : 23,732 /10,513: 11,594 : 12,941 : 15,910 : 21,563 : 5,758 : 11,892

02/16: 117.59 116.52: 13,697 : 19,170 : 23,860 : 23,737 /10,575: 11,663 : 12,943 : 15,912 : 21,567 : 5,800 : 11,004

02/09: 118.08 117.34: 13,747 : 19,239 : 23,946 : 23,823 /10,543: 11,627 : 13,772 : 15,920 : 21,577 : 5,796 : 11,016

02/02: 118.31 117.32: 13,732 : 19,218 : 23,920 : 23,797 /10,474: 11,552 : 13,779 : 17,536 : 21,588 : 5,785 : 11,410

01/26: 117.56 116.47: 14,122 : 19,229 : 23,240 : 23,811 /10,128: 11,262 : 13,670 : 17,397 : 21,418 : 5,809 : 10,552

01/19: 118.20 117.19: 14,441 : 19,225 : 23,236 : 23,806 /10,207: 11,350 : 13,710 : 17,449 : 21,481 : 5,854 : 11,317

01/12: 117.71 116.65: 14,391 : 19,159 : 23,155 : 23,724 /10,222: 11,367 : 13,703 : 17,440 : 21,470 : 5,698 : 11,331

01/05: 118.94 118.08: 14,377 : 19,139 : 23,132 : 23,700 /10,482: 11,839 : 13,703 : 17,710 : 21,650 : 5,820 : 11,409

st.2014

Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32%

12/29: Prices / NetSF : 17,519 : 24,292 : 29,616 : 28,444 /14,397: 16,586 : 17,758 : 23,636 : 29,001 : 7,734 : 12,524

12/29: 119.07 118.19: 14,407 : 19,180 : 23,181 : 23,750 /10,783: 12,325 : 13,926 : 17,849 : 21,820 : 5,768 : 10,936

12/22: 118.95 117.86: 14,427 : 19,207 : 23,213 : 23,782 /10,575: 12,086 : 13,868 : 17,774 : 21,728 : 5,801 : 10,965

12/15: 118.61 117.49: 14,431 : 19,212 : 23,219 : 23,789 /10,441: 11,933 : 13,813 : 17,704 : 21,642 : 5,807 : 10,627

12/08: 118.96 118.16: 13,247 : 19,816 : 23,177 : 23,746 /10,543: 12,050 : 13,280 : 16,816 : 21,662 : 5,796 : 10,712

12/01: 119.53 118.56: 13,311 : 19,911 : 23,288 : 23,859 /10,601: 12,116 : 13,518 : 16,875 : 21,739 : 5,792 : 10,786

11/24: 120.39 119.64: 13,672 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,499: 12,000 : 13,485 : 16,834 : 21.979 : 5,961 : 10,864

11/17: 120.13 119.39: 12,715 : 19,917 : 23,295 : 23,867 /10,481: 11,979 : 13,469 : 16,814 : 21,954 : 5,795 : 11,986

11/10: 119.93 119.16: 12,706 : 19,904 : 23,280 : 23,851 /10,494: 11,994 : 13,471 : 16,817 : 21,957 : 5,816 : 11,696

11/03: 120.72 120.03: 12,730 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,896 /10,454: 11,949 : 13,485 : 17,051 : 21,980 : 5,984 : 11,872

10/27: 119.50 118.67: 12,717 : 19,920 : 23,299 : 23,871 /10,576: 11,958 : 13,468 : 17,029 : 21,339 : 5,768 : 10,869

10/20: 120.08 119.41: 12,718 : 19,921 : 23,301 : 23,871 /10,597: 11,982 : 13,477 : 17,040 : 21,353 : 6,039 : 11,709

10/13: 119.87 119.11: 12,715 : 19,917 : 23,296 : 23,868 /10,514: 11,603 : 13,757 : 17,006 : 21,620 : 5,995 ; 11,741

10/06: 119.83 118.97: 12,707 : 19,905 : 23,281 : 23,853 //9,989 : 11,647 : 13,779 : 17,034 : 22,341 : 5,980 : 11,986

09/29: 120.00 119.37: 12,691 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,821 /10,051 : 11,719 : 13,787 : 17,043 : 22,353 : 6,004 : 11,950

09/22: 121.08 120.61: 12,783 : 20,024 : 23,421 : 23,996 /10,039 : 11,706 : 14,348 : 16,502 : 21,352 : 6,267 : 12,453

09/15: 120.84 120.39: 12,779 : 20,018 : 23,413 : 23,988 /10,035 : 11,701 : 14,336 : 16,489 : 20,664 : 6,291 : 12,458
09/08: 121.94 121.32: 12,816 : 20,076 : 23,841 : 20,076 /10,014 : 11,463 : 14,379 : 17,234 : 21,115 : 6,303 : 12,489
09/01: 120.86 120.44: 12,669 : 19,845 : 23,211 : 23,781 /10,046 : 11,858 : 13,777 : 17,202 : 21,076 : 6,329 : 12,484
08/25: 119.85 119.17: 12,697 : 19,889 : 23,263 : 23,834 /10,018 : 11,826 : 13,759 : 17,179 : 21,047 : 5,686 : 11,853
08/18: 119.79 119.54: 12,631 : 19,787 : 23,143 : 23,711 /10,007 : 11,813 : 13,722 : 15,069 : 20,993 : 5,686 : 11,751
08/11: 119.30 118.69: 12,661 : 19,833 : 23,197 : 23,766 // 9,934 : 11,062 : 14,795 : 15,059 : 20,980 : 5,343 : 11,781
08/04: 120.41 119.74: 12,684 : 19,869 : 23,239 : 23,809 /10,159 : 11,312 : 14,931 : 15,198 : 21,172 : 5,935 : 11,880
07/28: 120.95 120.29: 13,445 : 19,903 : 23,279 : 23,850 /10,076 : 11,850 : 14,920 : 15,186 : 22,183 : 6,021 : 12,001
07/21: 120.61 120.36: 13,374 : 19,799 : 23,157 : 23,725 /10,101 : 11,880 : 14,410 : 15,136 : 22,110 : 6,059 : 11,557
07/14: 120.14 119.82: 13,366 : 19,786 : 23,142 : 23,710 /10,136 : 11,921 : 14,401 : 15,126 : 21,910 : 6,054 : 10,998
07/07: 119.69 119.11: 13,387 : 19,818 : 23,180 : 23,749 /10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 : 10,464
06/30: 121.88 121.58: 13,502 : 19,987 : 23,377 : 23,950 /10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 : 12,021
06/23: 121.22 120.64: 13,416 : 19,861 : 23,229 : 23,800 /10,019 : 11,783 : 14,413 : 16,129 : 21,927 : 6,320 : 12,162
06/16: 119.96 118.69: 13,454 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,045 : 11,813 : 14,449 : 16,186 : 21,983 : 5,949 : 11,622
06/09: 120.74 119.57: 13,470 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,895 /10,072 : 11,845 : 14,463 : 16,186 : 22,004 : 6,360 : 12,256
06/02: 120.14 118.81: 13,429 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,822 /10,251 : 11,947 : 14,531 : 16,262 : 22,107 : 6,435 : 12,009
05/26: 119.06 118.31: 13,430 : 19,881 : 23,253 : 23,824 /10,026 : 11,649 : 13,760 : 15,031 : 21,826 : 6,130 : 11,847
05/19: 118.79 117.85: 16,070 : 19,830 : 23,193 : 23,763 // 9,971 : 11,585 : 13,751 : 15,021 : 21,851 : 5,883 : 11,912
05/12: 118.58 117.61: 16,066 : 19,825 : 23,188 : 23,758 // 9,981 : 11,597 : 13,752 : 15,021 : 21,852 : 6,032 : 11,772
05/05: 118.51 117.60: 16,089 : 19,853 : 24,180 : 23,791 /10,564 : 11,268 : 13,716 : 14,983 : 21,795 : 5,973 : 11,326
04/28: 118.84 118.08: 16,008 : 19,754 : 24,060 : 23,672 /10,673 : 12,150 : 13,755 : 15,024 : 21,857 : 5,877 : 11,710
04/21: 118.71 117.70: 16,036 : 19,788 : 24,101 : 23,712 /10,676 : 12,158 : 13,775 : 16,117 : 21,888 : 5,750 : 11,878
04/14: 120.12 119.35: 16,052 : 19,807 : 24,124 : 23,736 /11,207 : 12,198 : 13,807 : 16,155 : 21,939 : 5,795 : 11,936
04/07: 121.83 121.29: 16,080 : 19,843 : 24,168 : 23,779 /11,373 : 12,379 : 13,891 : 16,253 : 22,072 : 6,174 : 12,008
03/31: 123.01 122.22: 16,163 : 19,945 : 24,292 : 23,900 /11,419 : 12,430 : 13,956 : 16,329 : 22,176 : 6,160 : 12,131
03/24: 123.45 122.72: 16,175 : 19,960 : 24,311 : 23,919 /11,428 : 12,439 : 13,964 : 16,339 : 22,190 : 6,184 : 12,159
03/17: 123.66 122.98: 16,180 : 19,966 : 24,318 : 23,926 /11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 : 12,302
03/10: 122.09 121.41: 16,128 : 19,901 : 24,239 : 23,848 /11,413 : 12,423 : 13,916 : 16,283 : 22,114 : 6,420 : 11,519
03/03: 121.95 121.27: 15,168 : 19,889 : 24,224 : 23,834 /10,549 : 12,383 : 13,374 : 16,263 : 22,087 : 6,403 : 11,934
02/24: 121.64 120.97: 14,242 : 19,941 : 24,287 : 23,896 /10,917 : 12,147 : 13,168 : 16,227 : 22,037 : 6,325 : 11,939
02/17: 121.58 120.27: 14,241 : 19,940 : 24,286 : 23,894 /10,894 : 11,901 : 13,212 : 16,667 : 22,112 : 6,586 : 12,022
02/10: 121.73 120.41: 14,280 : 19,994 : 24,352 : 23,960 /10,889 : 11,896 : 13,211 : 16,666 : 22,111 : 6,350 : 11,805
02/03: 120.66 119.40: 13,692 : 19,900 : 24,237 : 23,847 /10,547 : 12,114 : 15,331 : 16,609 : 22,036 : 6,215 : 12,309
01/27: 119.13 117.60: 15,144 : 19,818 : 24,138 : 23,749 /10,670 : 11,039 : 15,262 : 16,685 : 21,937 : 6,336 : 12,149
01/20: 118.38 116.61: 15,133 : 19,803 : 24,120 : 23,731 /10,664 : 10,993 : 15,260 : 16,683 : 21,241 : 6,281 : 11,815
01/13: 115.93 114.29: 14,982 : 19,605 : 23,879 : 23,494 /10,429 : 10,751 : 13,108 : 16,490 : 22,215 : 6,202 : 11,214
01/06: 115.60 113.93: 14,994 : 19,621 : 23,898 : 22,244 /10,478 : 11,211 : 12,741 : 16,502 : 22,231 : 6,071 : 11,041

st.2013
Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32%
12/30: Prices / NetSF : 18,221 : 24,835 : 30,512 : 26,639 /13,929 : 15,020 : 16,257 : 21,606 : 29,492 : 8,116 : 13,359
12/30: 115.78 114.25: 14,985 : 19,609 : 23,883 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,665
12/23: 115.18 113.61: 14,092 : 19,603 : 23,876 : 22,237 /10,514 : 11,719 : 12,753 : 16,332 : 22,210 : 5,957 : 11,429
12/16: 114.97 113.50: 14,072 : 19,574 : 23,840 : 22,024 /10,527 : 11,733 : 12,744 : 16,319 : 22,193 : 5,988 : 11,288
12/09: 114.57 113.20: 14,037 : 19,527 : 22,150 : 22,150 /10,229 : 11,699 : 12,715 : 16,283 : 22,144 : 5,995 : 10,892
12/02: 114.38 112.52: 14,035 : 19,523 : 23,778 : 22,146 /10,423 : 11,896 : 13,656 : 17,883 : 22,324 : 5,978 : 10,810
11/25: 115.05 113.11: 16,570 : 19,594 : 23,865 : 22,227 /10,293 : 11,749 : 13,633 : 17,853 : 22,286 : 6,042 : 11,590
11/18: 116.17 114.32: 16,597 : 19,626 : 23,904 : 22,264 // 9,815 : 11,584 : 13,602 : 17,811 : 22,234 : 6,198 : 11,695
11/11: 116.81 114.20: 16,717 : 19,768 : 25,410 : 22,424 // 9,984 : 11,784 : 14,531 : 16,714 : 22,466 : 6,361 : 11,528
11/04: 116.07 113.81: 16,666 : 19,708 : 23,167 : 22,356 // 9,975 : 11,646 : 12,887 : 16,680 : 22,420 : 6,194 : 10,911
10/28: 114.35 112.33: 16,564 : 19,587 : 23,025 : 22,039 // 9,925 : 10,805 : 12,736 : 15,744 : 22,906 : 6,137 : 11,461
10/21: 112.25 110.37: 16,336 : 19,318 : 22,708 : 21,735 // 9,864 : 10,738 : 12,649 : 15,583 : 23,432 : 6,146 : 11,317
10/14: 111.19 109.41: 15,804 : 19,268 : 22,649 : 21,679/ 10,048 : 10,897 : 12,901 : 15,555 : 20,753 : 5,814 : 11,091
10/07: 111.11 109.21: 14,469 : 19,337 : 22,730 : 21,756 // 9,780 : 11,298 : 12,407 : 16,922 : 20,729 : 5,904 : 10,798
09/30: 110.14 108.55: 14,400 : 19,246 : 22,623 : 21,652/ 10,018 : 10,804 : 12,341 : 15,017 : 20,620 : 5,657 : 11,485
09/23: 109,81 107.88: 14,478 : 19,348 : 22,745 : 21,770/ 10,099 : 10,892 : 12,809 : 15,602 : 21,015 : 5,628 : 10,700
09/16: 108.17 106.05: 14,340 : 19,164 : 22,528 : 21,563/ 10,089 : 10,880 : 12,784 : 15,572 : 20,975 : 5,556 : 10,262
09/09: 108.80 107.02: 14,343 : 19,169 : 22,534 : 21,568 // 9,976 : 10,785 : 11,176 : 15,506 : 19,828 : 5,498 : 10,578
09/02: 107.99 105.85: 14,360 : 19,191 : 22,559 : 18,625 // 9,952 : 10,837 : 11,891 : 16,102 : 19,822 : 5,561 : 10,582
08/26: 106.89 105.17: 14,324 : 19,144 : 22,504 : 18,580 // 9,622 : 11,021 : 11,811 : 15,995 : 22,319 : 5,404 : 10,538
08/19: 107.18 105.22: 14,342 : 19,168 : 22,532 : 18,603 // 9,671 : 10,741 : 12,197 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,447 : 10,893
08/12: 106.85 104.85: 14,311 : 19,126 : 22,483 : 18,563 // 9,638 : 10,815 : 12,324 : 16,031 : 22,582 : 5,412 : 10,292
08/05: 105.78 103.33: 14,313 : 19,128 : 22,486 : 18,565 // 9,659 : 10,988 : 12,822 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,162 : 10,208
07/29: 106.54 103.71: 14,375 : 19,212 : 22,584 : 18,646 // 9,663 : 11,145 : 12,879 : 16,123 : 20,313 : 5,345 : 10,689
07/22: 104.93 101.99: 14,275 : 19,978 : 22,426 : 18,516 // 9,362 : 11,096 : 12,831 : 16,063 : 20,124 : 5,123 : 10,211
07/15: 104.25 101.41: 12,156 : 19,067 : 22,414 : 18,506 // 9,247 : 10,960 : 12,759 : 15,974 : 20,011 : 5,114 : 10,061
07/08: 105.01 102.33: 12,511 : 19,078 : 22,427 : 18,516 // 9,262 : 10,978 : 12,772 : 15,990 : 20,031 : 5,031 : 10,759
07/01: 105.46 103.13: 12,586 : 19,193 : 22,562 : 18,628 // 9,300 : 10,976 : 12,762 : 15,491 : 20,569 : 5,179 : 10,518
06/24: 104.60 102.33: 12,489 : 19,045 : 22,387 : 18,484 // 9,241 : 10,906 : 12,712 : 15,430 : 20,487 : 5,185 : 10,546
06/17: 104.14 102.01: 12,435 : 18,963 : 22,291 : 18,404 // 9,232 : 10,896 : 12,686 : 15,399 : 18,599 : 5,110 : 10,530
06/10: 103.82 101.35: 12,457 : 18,997 : 22,330 : 18,437 // 9,225 : 10,589 : 12,699 : 15,415 : 18,618 : 5,070 : 10,185
06/03: 104.01 101.85: 12,455 : 18,993 : 22,326 : 18,433 // 9,252 : 10,620 : 12,686 : 15,398 : 18,598 : 5,205 : 11,093
05/27: 104.00 101.72: 13,777 : 19,733 : 22,334 : 18,440 // 9,643 : 10,710 : 12,740 : 15,465 : 18,678 : 5,253 : 10,659
05/20: 103.94 101.89: 13,697 : 18,052 : 22,306 : 18,416: 10,004 : 10,404 : 12,716 : 15,435 : 18,642 : 5,137 : 10,877
05/13: 103.35 101.46: 13,698 : 17,972 : 22,206 : 18,334 // 9,798 : 10,367 : 12,401 : 15,314 : 17,941 : 5,083 : 10,186
05/06: 102.89 101.40: 13,588 : 17,828 : 22,028 : 18,187 // 9,967 : 10,532 : 12,295 : 14,219 : 17,491 : 5,013 : 10,719
04/29: 101.12: 98.90 : 13,579 : 17,815 : 22,012 : 17,031 // 9,841 : $9,904 : 11,634 : 14,648 : 17,423 : 5,054 : : 9,922
04/22: 102.17 100.05: 13.644 : 17.901 : 22,118 : 17,113 // 9,793 : 10,022 : 11,636 : 14,651 : 17,426 : 5,221 : 10,663
04/15: 102.50 100.71: 13,610 : 17,856 : 22,064 : 17,856 // 9,390 : 10,442 : 11,661 : 14,682 : 17,463 : 5,017 : 10,886
04/08: 101.79: 99.76 : 13,800 : 17,866 : 22,075 : 17,080 // 9,493 : 10,477 : 11,668 : 15,102 : 17,473 : 4,865 : 10,581
04/01: 101.17: 99.15 : 13,795 : 17,860 : 22,067 : 17,074 // 9,550 : 10,401 : 11,641 : 14,441 : 18,548 : 4,871 : 10.384
03/25: 100.06: 97.97 : 13,723 : 17,766 : 21,952 : 16,985 // 9,296 : 10,105 : 11,346 : 13,907 : 18,359 : 4,926 : 10,373
03/18 : 99.17 : 96.75 : 12,738 : 17,747 : 21,928 : 16,966 // 9,230 : 10,160 : 11,380 : 13,949 : 18,414 : 4,766 : : 9,850
03/11 : 98.41 : 95.72 : 12,691 : 17,682 : 21,848 : 16,904 // 9,165 : 10,089 : 11,358 : 15,071 : 19,152 : 4,736 : : 9,615
03/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 // 9,029 : $9,937 : 11,244 : 14,269 : 18,960 : 4,751 : : 9,728
02/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,449 : $9,638 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 21,504 : 4,808 : : 9,702
02/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,580 : $9,784 : 11,160 : 13,048 : 20,058 : 4,770 : : 9,499
02/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 // 8,659 : $9,874 : 11,210 : 13,107 : 20,148 : 4,768 : 10,038
02/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 // 8,576 : $9,779 : 11,185 : 13,078 : 20,103 : 4,790 : : 9,873
01/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 // 8,770 : $9,663 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 20,031 : 4,730 : : 9,884
01/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 // 8,762 : $9,654 : 11,152 : 13,039 : 20,043 : 4,871 : : 9,875
01/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 // 8,762 : $9,655 : 11,146 : 13,032 : 20,032 : 4,667 : : 9,864
01/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 // 8,780 : $9,674 : 12,250 : 13,060 : 20,075 : 4,630 : : 9,295
01/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 // 9,135 : 10,399 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,378 : 4,631 : : 9,160

st.2012
12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 // 9,100 : 10,147 : 12,431 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610 : : 9,877
12/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 // 9,109 : 10,157 : 12,436 : 13,258 : 20,379 : 4,620 : : 9,882
12/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 // 8,950 : $9,980 : 12,379 : 13,196 : 20,285 : 4,619 : 10,357
12/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 // 9,016 : 10,054 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,131 : 4,834 : 10,379

2007
10/28:: 59.36 : 57.22 :

Historical Data : http://202.72.14.52/...rchHistory.aspx


OTHER LINKS
AXpat Forum :: http://hongkong.asia...-kong-property/
Cental-Data :: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm
GEI secret-- :: http://www.greenener...p?showtopic=920 : hidden thread
TLB history :: http://hk.centadata.com/eptest.aspx?type=2&code=EGPPWPPJPW&info=tr&page=0
Show Flats- :: http://www.gohome.co...ew-property/en/
Price Track :: http://eng.data.28hse.com/
TLB mo.est :: xx

[drbubb]

2015-17 : we are now in the Window for a Cyclical Peak in HK property

 

[drbubb]

Wow!
How wrong some were - like THIS forecast

• The market has turned and entered a downtrend. Residential prices will be heading south in the coming few years, but significant corrections are not expected amid a low mortgage rate environment. The only uncertainty will be from the US—the possible tapering of QE3 and interest-rate rise—but this is not expected until 2015 or 2016.
• Mass home prices will drop 10-15% in 2014, due to cooling measures and increased supply.
==
A 10-15% DROP?? What actually happened?
=======
Week-Yr. : CCLI : CMMI : TaikSh : CentPark : CaribCo :
12/28/14: 132.45 133.50: 13,301 : 12,582 : 6,141 :
12/29/13: 119.07 118.19: 10,936 : 12,325 : 5,768 :
CHANGE:+11.2% +13.0%: +21.6% : 02.1%: +6.5% :

=======

> see: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/default.aspx?pagename=forum&ThreadID=770f30a2-3019-469d-8657-ee46f38c99e9

 

The Miss? About 25% !

 

LOOKING FORWARD:

 

The Standard / Thu. Jan. 15, 2015... on Housing Policies (pg.4)

"The next five years will see 30 percent more private homes built annually,
as well as untried models to provide subsidized flats..."

The government expects:
In 2015 to 2019: 14,600 average per annum
was past 5 yrs. : 11,400
... 1980-2004 .. : 28,000
Est . in 2014 .... : 20,000

Colliers said: "the govt is not able to control housing supply,
doubting the target can be met."

[drbubb]

HK Property prices are headed towards a possible resistance level

 

[drbubb]

Calculations: on the two 2BR flats;

Ave.of 2BR - $10.148M / 0,565= $17,961

Times : 84% - $ 8,524M / 0,565= $15,087

=========

CCLI index (End.Jul): 123.54 / (Last): 135.73 : +9.87%

49CBankV (End.Jul): $xx /

=========

$8,524K x 109.87% = $9,365k

[drbubb]

A Hot Wave of Sales at Long Beach

=======

(per Midland)

Block Floor : - Date -- : $Price- / Net = per Sq.Ft : Gross = per Sq.Ft

TW5 : Mid. : 30/01/15 : $8.68M / 558 = $15,556 : 742 = $11,698

TW6 : Mid. : 30/01/15 : $8.28M / 546 = $15,165 : 742 = $11,159

TW5 : Low : 26/01/15 : $8.68M / 556 = $15,612 : 743 = $11,682

Tw3 : High : 25/01/15 : $8.65M / 549 = $15,756 : 741 = $11,673

TW5 : Mid. : 25/01/15 : $8.80M / 564 = $15,603 : 752 = $11,702

 

TLB Index - per Centaline

 

Nearby

Park Avenue/ Cent. Park - in TKT : update

 

Meantime, a down week in the CL Index

 

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.

Numb.: ( #1) (#2,4): ( --#6): (--#7): (--#8) : (--#9)/ (--#7) (--#8): (-#12) : (--#13): (-#14) (#-3) : (#21)

==== . .

01/25: 134.03 135.01: 15,587 : 19,554 : 24,903 : 22,368 /11,378: 12,466 : 13,970 : 17,147 : 21,797 : 6,538 : 12,627 :

01/18: 134.64 135.73: 15,608 : 19,581 : 24,936 : 22,398 /11,366: 12,311 : 13,997 : 17,179 : 21,838 : 6,079 : 13,586 :

 

Private flat supply hits 8-year high - SCMP

Number of completed units up 89pc last year

+ 15,700 units completed in 2015

+ construction started on 17,300 units, up from 14,100 in 2013

+ starting the transition to a period of more sustainable flat supply

+ some 74,000 new homes expected over next 3-4 years (74,000/4 = 18,500 per year)

+ Supply expected to be maintained at 15,000 -18,000 in the next few years

[drbubb]

LOHAS can also be compared with Caribbean Coast, in Tung Chung. (similar prices)
And, of course, to Park Central in TKO, and Taikoo Shing (TKS) on HK Island.
LOHAS has for a long time been about 50% of TKS

mo: CariC: Lohas: PkCen: TaikSh: L/TKS :
13 : 6,336 : 6,146 : 7,551 : 12,149 :
F. : 6,325 : 6,315 : 8,650 : 11,939 :
M : 6,160 : 6,339 : 8,372 : 12,131 : 52.3%
A : 5,877 : 6,295 : 7,661 : 11,710 :
M : 6,130 : 6,074 : 7,810 : 11,847 :
J. : 6,233 : 6,170 : 8,237 : 12,021 : 51.3%
Jl : 6,021 : 6,189 : 8,387 : 12,001 :
A : 5,686 : 6,116 : 7,854 : 11,853 :
S : 6,004 : 6,064 : 8,204 : 11,950 : 50.7%
O : 5,768 : 6,020 : 7,872 : 10,869 :
N : 5,961 : 6,084 : 7,847 : 10,864 :
D : 5,768 : 5,910 : 7,797 : 10,552 : 56.0%
14 : 5,809 : 6,146 : 7,722 : 10,936 :
F. : 5,758 : 5,692 : 7,970 : 11,892 :
M : 5,695 : 5,901 : 7,777 : 11,392 : 51.8%
A : 5,660 : 5,666 : 7,246 : 12,592 :
M : 5,603 : 5,913 : 7,756 : 11,294 :
J. : 6,081 : 5,845 : 8,066 : 12,134 : 48.2%
Jl : 5,810 : 6,044 : 7.817 : 11,552 :
A : 6,076 : 6,070 : 8,796 : 12,268 :
S : 6,346 : 6,159 : 8,944 : 12,705 : 48.5%
O : 6,356 : 6,236 : 8,336 : 12,668 :
N : 6,275 : 6,296 : 8,801 : 12,678 :
D : 6,141 : 6,296 : 9,242 : 13,301 : 47.3%
15 : 6,538 : 6,356 : 9,168 : 12,627 : 50.3%

 

I think the 50% discount to TKS is too big, especially since properties at

LOHAS Park are new, and TKS is very old.

 

I see it narrowing over time, as:

+ More trains roll into LOHAS (it is now 1:3 or 1:4), and

+ More shopping is added at LOHAS in future years

[drbubb]

Cooling moves ready as housing heats up

 

Adam Xu / February 03, 2015

 

All necessary steps will be taken to prevent the local housing market from overheating, said Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing- leung amid frenetic price rises in resales of both private and public units.

In the meantime Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Norman Chan Tak-lam said the property market faces an uncertain outlook with interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve on the horizon, but there is room for more anti-cyclical measures should an upward cycle be confirmed.

 

The Transport and Housing Bureau will report results of its review of the Special Stamp Duty and Buyer's Stamp Duty to the Legislative Council's House Committee next month.

 

Cheung said that had the stamp duties not been introduced in 2012 and 2013, local property prices would have jumped even higher.

>more:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=11&art_id=153895&sid=43812316&con_type=1&d_str=20150203&fc=2

[Traineeinvestor]

"All necessary steps will be taken to prevent the local housing market from overheating ..."

 

Not sure which local housing market he's talking about but a lot of people have been claiming that the HK housing market has been overheated for a few years now.

[drbubb]

Yes.

The WARNING loses its force when they fail (have failed?) to act

 

I reckon they will do something before CNY

 

My suggestion would be to collect a 1% surchage (per annum) on loans,

and then rebate it, when the property is sold