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Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back

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Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back (near there)

An Old Gap from early October attracts the price

===================================

 

GLD / Gold etf ... update : GDX-last6mos

001mk.gif

 

The JUMP, that left a GAP behind

 

Monday 4 October : GLD / Closing: $128.46 ( Open: 128.52 / High: 128.62 / Low: 128.22 // Volume: 8,367,916 )

Tuesday 5 October: GLD / Closing: $130.99 ( Open: 130.11 / High: 131.12 / Low: 129.87 // Volume: 17,489,513 )

 

THE OCTOBER GAP: 128.62 - 129.87

 

High price in September was: $128.28 / High of Sept. 30th

The gap lies just above that price.

 

It will be interesting to see if the Oct. 5th Gap stops the price slide in GLD.

The 144d.MA is near there, and that has been support for many Gold price drops.

 

If this support fails, and early, lower GAP in early September looms

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Interesting chart by Gary Tanashian

 

gsr.png

 

 

Might be worth keeping an eye on ?

 

If these correlations repeat, suggests that in the short term, Gold might be close to finding support ($1250-$1300 / gap 1 or 2?) and begin to trade inversely with the general market, as the general market begins to roll over ... a possible breakout in the Gold:Silver ratio would signal another round of (disorderly) liquidation.

 

Will be interesting to see how the yellow metal behaves if we do see another round of de-leveraging. I suspect if Europe is the catalyst for liquidation II, that the metal may hold up fairly well, and could even see it spike to new highs (as per Ross Clark's forecast)?

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THE GAP: 128.62 - 129.87

. . .

It will be interesting to see if the Oct. 5th Gap stops the price slide in GLD.

The 144d.MA is near there, and that has been support for many Gold price drops.

Tom Obrien and Larry Pesavento both think that Gold may break this nearby support and drop below $1300 well into the $1200's.

 

Tom's main argument is the WEAKNESS he is seeing in Gold stocks. And I see that too.

 

GDX / etf for Major Gold stocks ... 2yr-GDX : update/3yr-GDX : 5yr-GDX

gdx3yr.gif

 

Once again, the 252d.MA seems to be sitting as potential support for Gold stocks, while the 144d.MA is providing equivalent potential support for Gold/GLD. This pairing of support levels has generated decent rallies in the past.

 

A break of GDX-$50 on volume could powerfully blow away the possibility of nearby support, and put severe stress on the Piper and his followers. (The next major support could be about GDX-$45, the 200wk-MA.)

 

Nevertheless, I am prepared to buy Gold and Gold shares, if the support kicks in there.

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The gap near $121-123?

Yes.

ANd that would correspond to another $100 or so down from where Gold is now

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Interesting chart by Gary Tanashian

gsr.png

Might be worth keeping an eye on ?

A great chart. Worth following here.

 

It reminds me of the pattern that Jim Puplava and Frank Barbera spoke about.

And most amazing of all, he mentioned Yogi Bear, or was it Yogi Berra ?

 

(Frank himself is "smarter than the average Bear", I reckon.)

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Tom Obrien and Larry Pesavento both think that Gold may break this nearby support and drop below $1300 well into the $1200's.

 

Tom's main argument is the WEAKNESS he is seeing in Gold stocks. And I see that too.

 

GDX / etf for Major Gold stocks ... 2yr-GDX : update/3yr-GDX : 5yr-GDX

gdx3yr.gif

 

Once again, the 252d.MA seems to be sitting as potential support for Gold stocks, while the 144d.MA is providing equivalent potential support for Gold/GLD. This pairing of support levels has generated decent rallies in the past.

 

A break of GDX-$50 on volume could powerfully blow away the possibility of nearby support, and put severe stress on the Piper and his followers. (The next major support could be about GDX-$45, the 200wk-MA.)

 

Nevertheless, I am prepared to buy Gold and Gold shares, if the support kicks in there.

 

 

Weakness in Gold stocks can be neatly summed by the following chart:

 

Screenshot2011-01-25at94641PM.png

 

 

I agree, "if" support breaks at 144 / 252 dma, the correction could turn nästy (especially in stocks).

 

If I'm reading the volume on your chart correctly, then in such a scenario GDX could drop to ca. $40 level? For what its worth, there is a similar channel in Gold as the one you've drawn on GDX, with support currently around $1300.

 

Screenshot2011-01-25at113221PM.png

 

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Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back (near there)

An Old Gap from early October attracts the price

===================================

THE GAP: 128.62 - 129.87

That did not take long !

 

GBS.L / Gold Bullion Securities ... update

gbs.gif

 

GBS.L : $129.19 Change: -1.87 // Percent Change: -1.43%

Open: 129.58 High: 129.58 Low: 128.73 // Volume: 14,503

 

Happy N.:

I agree, "if" support breaks at 144 / 252 dma, the correction could turn nästy (especially in stocks).

 

If I'm reading the volume on your chart correctly, then in such a scenario GDX could drop to ca. $40 level? For what its worth, there is a similar channel in Gold as the one you've drawn on GDX, with support currently around $1300.

 

We are nearly there - to the bottom of the gap.

With very little volume in GBS.L so far.

The Gold price has dipped to $1323 or so.

 

This chart : GOLD Weekly ... update / should help identify key support levels

 

gld.gif

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It reminds me of the pattern that Jim Puplava and Frank Barbera spoke about.

And most amazing of all, he mentioned Yogi Bear, or was it Yogi Berra ?

 

(Frank himself is "smarter than the average Bear", I reckon.)

But he was dead-wrong on gold recently and missed out on all the recent up move.

 

That's what happens if you focus too much on technical noise.

 

Fundamentals rule in the end. You got to be in it to win it.

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Interesting chart by Gary Tanashian

Nice to see someone else who likes Gary's blog.

 

Gary is 50/50 on whether gold stocks are now an epic opportunity or will soon blow up the whole bullish scenario.

 

He is buying quality gold stocks here so is erring on the side of epic opportunity.

 

Will be an interesting few weeks.

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1300 plus or minus 25 bucks in my view is more or less the bottom considering you are unlikely to bottom tick it.

If I buy "for a low" here, it will be mainly with options.

I admit to doing some nibbling already. But it seems too many people want to jump in at this first important support level.

 

In fact, we saw it touched yesterday. To me, a retest of lower low seems likely.

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If I buy "for a low" here, it will be mainly with options.

I admit to doing some nibbling already. But it seems too many people want to jump in at this first important support level.

 

In fact, we saw it touched yesterday. To me, a retest of lower low seems likely.

 

Nice call on the GDXJ island reversal signal projecting a downside target of 32 which was hit today...

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Tom's main argument is the WEAKNESS he is seeing in Gold stocks. And I see that too.

 

GDX / etf for Major Gold stocks ... 2yr-GDX : update/3yr-GDX : 5yr-GDX

gdx3yr.gif

 

Once again, the 252d.MA seems to be sitting as potential support for Gold stocks, while the 144d.MA is providing equivalent potential support for Gold/GLD. This pairing of support levels has generated decent rallies in the past.

By comparison, here's the chart for:

 

GDXJ / the etf for Junior Gold Miners ... update-1year : chart-6mos : 3months :: GDXJvsGDX

gdxj.gif

 

Notice how GDXJ (and GDX too!) peaked a full month before gold prices. Perhaps Gold shares will bottom first too.

There is a possibility that GDXJ bottomed on Monday, but I now think it is more likely that it will go to at least the next support level, which is GDXJ-$31 or so.

 

I also like this comparison of GDXJ with Silver/SLV and GDX ... update

gdxjslv.gif

 

GDXJ had a similar rise to Silver/SLV, and is how leading it lower

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I don't know if anyone follows Charles Nenner but he is extremely pessimistic about the price of gold. He has purchased Gold put options and is expecting the price of gold could hit $1000...

www.charlesnenner.com

I find that interesting.

 

I think there's a fair chance that Puplava et al will be wrong again in being so complacent about falling Gold prices.

I am glad I have moved so strongly into cash, despite the crap I took from some GEI members for suggesting lightening up.

 

I sold gold twice since I started the "XX" thread, at an average price of about $1325, and then lightened up on GLW.t and other Gold shares as prices moved higher. I am happy with those decisions now.

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I don't know if anyone follows Charles Nenner but he is extremely pessimistic about the price of gold. He has purchased Gold put options and is expecting the price of gold could hit $1000...

 

www.charlesnenner.com

 

Is Mr Nenner then expecting the dollar index to rally quite nice too, thus compound the POG fall?

 

I can see that an equity market correction could create a flight to dollar safety (oxymoron), then push up the Index, and intrinsically weaken POG in $.

 

I expect POG in £ to not correct by anything like the same margin BTW.

 

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GAP (at 128-129) filled, market rallies

Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back (near there)

An Old Gap from early October attracts the price

THE GAP: 128.62 - 129.87

== ==

That did not take long !

 

GBS.L / Gold Bullion Securities ... update

gbs.gif

 

GBS.L : $129.19 Change: -1.87 // Percent Change: -1.43%

Open: 129.58 High: 129.58 Low: 128.73 // Volume: 14,503

GLD: 131.16 Change: +1.06 // Percent Change: +0.81%

Open: 129.83 High: 131.17 Low: 129.28 // Volume: 20,547,678

 

That may have been THE low, but that is not my preferred case.

I reckon that we could see a rally to that "overhead" gap, and then a retest or lower.

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That may have been THE low, but that is not my preferred case.

 

That's interesting as I have a buy signal today on GDX.

 

Screenshot2011-01-27at194821.png

 

This is my indicator in black with GDX in blue. A level double bottom in my indicator is a buy signal, a level double top is a sell signal. I've marked out previous buy and sell signals. Buy on 28th July 2010, sell on 3rd January 2010, and I have a buy signal today. I didn't play the sell on 3rd January on GDX, I bought puts on GDXJ as a sell signal appeared on GDXJ on 4th January. Bought the puts back today on the basis of today's GDX signal, a nice trade but I didn't originally spot it on 4th Jan as it wasn't on one of my scan lists, it is now, I bought puts on 6th Jan, only part way into the move.

 

Here's a standard GDX chart showing the corresponding signal dates

 

Screenshot2011-01-27at200911.png

 

I've conducted a general study of my indicator and the signals are approx 70% - 80% accurate. I posted a previous sell signal on USO a while back, the previous signals for that were spot on, the one I posted didn't work out though so if you want to look at it from a probabilistic point of view you could argue as the last few GDX (and GDXJ) ones were correct there is an increased probability of this one not working(?). I'm playing this by selling put spreads.

 

It does seem too early but there may be buyers willing to step into gold around the $1300 level, that would make sense for those who are long term bullish but not as long as they want to be.

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I bought; Feb, April, and Dec. GLD call options & bull spreads

 

And am going to scalp a nice quick 25%+ profit on the Feb, calls here

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I bought; Feb, April, and Dec. GLD call options & bull spreads

 

And am going to scalp a nice quick 25%+ profit on the Feb, calls here

 

What's the exercise price on those call options Dr.B?

 

 

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What's the exercise price on those call options Dr.B?

what's left:

GLD1116D127 CBOE CALL 100 GLD 04/16/11 127 Lg

GLD1116D132 CBOE CALL 100 GLD 04/16/11 132 Sht

GLD1117L120 CBOE CALL 100 GLD 12/17/11 120 Lg

GLD1117L134 CBOE CALL 100 GLD 12/17/11 134 Sht

GLD1221A125 CBOE CALL 100 GLD 01/21/12 125 Lg

GLD1221A135 CBOE CALL 100 GLD 01/21/12 135 Sht

 

Sold the Feb.$124calls at $7.00

 

Day High 7.20

Day Low 6.70

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That's interesting as I have a buy signal today on GDX.

 

Screenshot2011-01-27at194821.png

 

This is my indicator in black with GDX in blue. A level double bottom in my indicator is a buy signal, a level double top is a sell signal. I've marked out previous buy and sell signals. Buy on 28th July 2010, sell on 3rd January 2010, and I have a buy signal today. I didn't play the sell on 3rd January on GDX, I bought puts on GDXJ as a sell signal appeared on GDXJ on 4th January. Bought the puts back today on the basis of today's GDX signal, a nice trade but I didn't originally spot it on 4th Jan as it wasn't on one of my scan lists, it is now, I bought puts on 6th Jan, only part way into the move.

 

Here's a standard GDX chart showing the corresponding signal dates

 

Screenshot2011-01-27at200911.png

 

I've conducted a general study of my indicator and the signals are approx 70% - 80% accurate. I posted a previous sell signal on USO a while back, the previous signals for that were spot on, the one I posted didn't work out though so if you want to look at it from a probabilistic point of view you could argue as the last few GDX (and GDXJ) ones were correct there is an increased probability of this one not working(?). I'm playing this by selling put spreads.

 

It does seem too early but there may be buyers willing to step into gold around the $1300 level, that would make sense for those who are long term bullish but not as long as they want to be.

 

Interesting. How does your system work?

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