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The Health of "the Economy"

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The Health of "the Economy"

Jobs is Ill - So a correction may be coming

============================

 

Bear with me for a minute on this thinking.

 

I can see a possible chain of causality coming....

 

Steve Jobs gets Ill

. V

Apple stock falls

. V

Other stock indices fall

. V

Confidence flows out of the economy

. V

Spending drops

. V

A double-dip arrives in the economy

 

I know, it sounds implausible. But so connected are markets with confidence it could happen.

 

(1)

Steve Jobs’ Sick Leave Could Slow Down Apple Stock

 

Jan. 17 2011 - By HEATHER STRUCK

 

Jobs will take a second leave of absence for his health.

The cache that a founding chief executive represents is not the same for every company, but Monday’s announcement that Apple CEO Steve Jobs will depart for another health-related leave of absence illustrates the significance of a CEO’s presence in a company like Apple.

 

Apple’s stock declined 8-10% on European exchanges after the news was announced Monday morning (the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange were both closed for the Martin Luther King holiday), and a look back at what the stock did in 2008-2009, when Jobs took his first leave of absence to undergo an operation to remove his failing liver shows how much his well-being can move investors’ optimism in the company.

 

It is a sad but clear truth, as Forbes technology writer Quentin Hardy notes, that a legacy as prolific and inspired as Jobs’ is met with an immediate drop in investor confidence the moment he shows signs that he may be suffering through ill health. While lovers of Apple products and the technology business use Jobs’ successes with Apple as a point of focus for intelligent, creative business, investors realize that without the CEO at the helm, the company may never reach the lofty price targets (over $400 per share) that have been set in recent months.

 

In 2008 Apple shares fell more than 50%, along with the overall market, just as rumors that Jobs’ pancreatic cancer had returned began circulating. The stock fell to a low point of $82.58 in November 2008 amid widespread market weakness following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Jobs formally announced he would take a leave in January 2009, and the stock proceeded to slowly recover, returning to about 80% of its peak before the CEO returned at the end of the summer. The stock did manage to appreciate from its 2008 bottom, but not as quickly as after June, when Apple announced that Jobs would return to work after a liver transplant

 

/more: http://blogs.forbes.com/heatherstruck/2011...wn-apple-stock/

 

(2)

AAPL / Apple Corp ... update

aapl.gif

 

(3)

AAPL is about 20-21% of the Nasdaq 100, so if it falls 8%, and nothing else falls (insympathy) NDX and QQQ may be down 1.6% or so.

 

QQQ / etf for Nasdaq 100 ... update

qqqt.gif

 

(4)

The stock market has been riding high, on confidence that Fed money-printing will hold up the market.

 

As Alan Newman of Cross-currents put it on FS this past weekend, the "market is levitating", and the Fed is trying to "force" people to be confident and keep spending in the economy. But not everyone is falling for it.

 

Link: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0115-1.mp3

 

(5)

The WSJ today talks about how many Hedge Funds are "all in the same trades", and when they move together, there can be violent moves in stocks.

Like Apple, I suppose.

 

THIS WEEK could prove interesting.

 

No guarantees on any of this, but I wanted to let you know why I would be watching APPL closely.

Incidentally, I have a small number (x10) of February puts that I may sell today.

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How healthy ... Really ?

 

(CHART on Link)

 

/source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/economics/...aspx?Symbol=USD

 

Year : Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May : Jun. : July : Aug. : Sep. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec :

2010 :+ 14 :+ 39 : 208 : 313 : 432 : -175 : - 66 : - 57 : - 24 : 210 : + 71 : 103 :

2009 :-779 :-726 :-753 :-528 :-387 :-515 :-346 :-212 :-225 :-224 : 064 :-109 :

2008 :-010 :-050 :-033 :-149 :-231 :-193 :-210 :-334 :-458 :-554 :-728 :-673 :

 

== == ==

 

US Unemployment Rate Falls to 9.4% in December

 

Published: 1/7/2011

 

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.4 percent in December, and nonfarm payroll employment increased by 103,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in leisure and hospitality and in health care but was little changed in other major industries.

 

The number of unemployed persons decreased by 556,000 to 14.5 million in December, and the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent. Over the year, these measures were down from 15.2 million and 9.9 percent, respectively.

 

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (9.4 percent) and whites (8.5 percent) declined in December. The unemployment rates for adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (25.4 percent), blacks (15.8 percent), and Hispanics (13.0 percent) showed little change. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.2 percent, not seasonally adjusted.

 

In December, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs dropped by 548,000 to 8.9 million. The number of longterm unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little

changed at 6.4 million and accounted for 44.3 percent of the unemployed.

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 103,000 in December. Employment rose in leisure and hospitality and in health care but changed little in other major industries. Since December 2009, total payroll employment has increased by 1.1 million, or an average of 94,000 per month.

 

Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 47,000 in December. Within the industry, job gains continued in food services and drinking places (+25,000). Since a recent low in December 2009, the food services industry has added 188,000 jobs.

 

In December, health care employment continued to expand, with a gain of 36,000. Over the month, job gains continued in ambulatory services (+21,000), hospitals (+8,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+7,000)

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HamzeiAnalytics

 

$AAPL is down 17 pts on NAZZ opened this am -22

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AAPL down.

 

But NDX and QQQ are hardly moving.

 

A non-event perhaps ?

 

== ==

 

In edit: prices: // AAPL-chart : AAPL-2d

001ae.gif

 

AAPL : $335.745 -12.735 // Percent Change: -3.65%

Open: 329.52 High: 335.84 Low: 326.00 // Volume: 13,244,047

 

QQQ : $ 56.91 -0.09 // Percent Change: -0.16%

Open: 56.52 High: 56.96 Low: 56.49 // Volume: 12,827,936

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SAN FRANCISCO —

 

¶ On Tuesday, Apple reported strong results for holiday season, which far exceeded analysts’ bullish expectations.

 

The company said its net income in the last three months of 2010 rose to $6 billion, or $6.43 a share, a 78 percent gain from a year earlier. Revenue soared more than 70 percent to $26.74 billion, from$ 15.68 billion a year earlier.

 

¶ Despite the strong numbers, the earnings report was were overshadowed by the announcement on Monday that Mr. Jobs would take a medical leave to focus on his health. While Mr. Jobs will remain chief executive, the company said Timothy D. Cook, the chief operating officer, would have oversight over day-to-day matters.

 

¶ Wall Street’s reaction on Tuesday to the announcement was somewhat muted. Apple’s shares dropped more than 6 percent after the opening bell but recovered sharply and ended the day at $340.65, down $7.83, or 2.2 percent, from their Friday close. This was a far smaller decline than analysts had predicted on Monday.

 

¶ Apple’s results in the quarter were driven by strong sales of the company’s Macintosh computers as well as the iPhone and iPad.

 

/more: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/19/technolo...tml?src=busln#h[]

 

After Hours Trading

1/18/2011 6:35:16 PM

Last: 345.90 Change: +5.25

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If Apples share price is critically tied to jobs return , i would fear the worst.

 

.....................................................

Pancreatic cancer life expectancy is very low. Once a person has been diagnosed with the condition, general pancreatic life expectancy is only 5 to 8 months, though 20 percent of pancreatic sufferers will live at least 1 year.

.....................................................

This is ALLOPATHIC treatment stats which from reading the various press it would appear jobs is following the modality of.

 

With possible complications of the tumour site and being the recipient of a liver transplant jobs health would be precarious to say the least.

Prognosis with allopathic treatment terminal.

 

.........................................................

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_162-200...3-10391704.html

Steve Jobs' Future: Tumor Complications Not Uncommon

 

(CBS/AP) Steve Jobs is taking his second medical leave in two years - but why? The 55-year-old Apple CEO is vague on the details. But experts say it's not unusual for people with the rare pancreatic tumor for which Jobs has been treated to experience additional health problems.

 

Dr. Michael Poryako, medical director of liver transplantation at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, listed a slew of conditions that might be affecting the computer pioneer, who in 2009 had a liver transplant after being diagnosed with a pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor.

 

Jaundice and kidney and vascular problems are two possibilities, he said, as well as side effects from the immunosuppressant drugs patients take following an organ transplant.

 

Dr. Roderich Schwarz, director of surgical oncology at the University of Texas Southwest Medical Center, said it was possible cancer has invaded Jobs' new liver.

 

.........................................................................

 

 

Remember patrick swayze another individual with pancreatic cancer who followed allopathy to his demise.

 

Patrick-Swayze.jpg

 

.........................................................................

 

 

An intelligent informed individual would follow a protocol like this.

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...134159042346609

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...63108843483637# PANCREATIC CANCER CASE HISTORY AT BEGINNING OF THIS VID.

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...809469620535274

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...206011785265094

 

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...629140536485998

 

Dying to Have Known

 

A Documentary Film by Stephen Kroschel Awarded Honorable Mention in the Feature-Length Documentary Category 2006 New York International Independent Film and Video Festival Filmmaker, Stephen Kroschel, sets out to find hard evidence of the effectiveness of the Gerson Therapy, a long-suppressed natual cancer treatment. His travels take him across both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, from upstate New York to San Diego to Alaska, from Japan to Holland and Mexico. In the end, he presents the testimony of patients, scientists, surgeons and nutritionists, who testify to the effectiveness of the Gerson Therapy and shows the hard scientific evidence to back up their claims. The question that remains is, "Why is this powerful curative therapy still suppressed, more than 75 years after it was clearly proven to cure degenerative disease?"

 

 

http://www.snagfilms.com/films/title/the_gerson_miracle/

 

The Gerson Miracle

 

examines why we are so ill and how we have in our grasp the power to recover our health.

The Gerson Miracle examines many of the elements of the Gerson Therapy, explaining why we are so ill and how we have in our grasp the power to recover our health without expensive, toxic or mutilating treatments, using the restorative forces of our own immune systems.

 

Even the most advanced cases of cancer can be successfully reversed using this method. While the results seem miraculous, the real “miracle” lies within our own body and its healing processes

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvzDHGLEUyw

 

The Beautiful Truth

Raised on a wildlife reserve in Alaska, 15-year-old Garrett was interested in the dietary habits of the farm animals. After the tragic death of his mother, Garrett's father decided to home-school his son and assigned a book written by Dr. Max Gerson that proposed a direct link between diet and a cure for cancer.

 

Fascinated, Garrett embarks in this documentary on a cross-country road trip to investigate The Gerson Therapy. He meets with scientists, doctors and cancer survivors who reveal how it is in the best interest of the multi-billion dollar medical industry to dismiss the notion of alternative and natural cures.

 

 

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If Apples share price is critically tied to jobs return , i would fear the worst.

.....................................................

This is ALLOPATHIC treatment stats which from reading the various press it would appear jobs is following the modality of.

Pancreatic Cancer is a tough way to go.

I know two people who passed away that way

 

But there are new treatments.

And if anyone will find a way past it, I think it might be Steve Jobs.

Maybe he will find a cure (I hope)

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Pancreatic Cancer is a tough way to go.

I know two people who passed away that way

 

But there are new treatments.

And if anyone will find a way past it, I think it might be Steve Jobs.

Maybe he will find a cure (I hope)

 

But there are new treatments.

 

NO there are not.New names for the same TOXIC crap maybe. :(

 

And if anyone will find a way past it, I think it might be Steve Jobs.

 

It looks to me like Steve Jobs is way down the ALLOPATHIC road already, so is clearly following the advice of the QUACKS.So dont see how he will find his way past anything.

 

Maybe he will find a cure (I hope)

 

There is no need for hope unless you want to remain ignorant to the truth and then you will need HOPE AND LUCK IN BUCKETFULS.

Do youreselves and loved ones a favour and educate youreself to what the PROCESS of cancer is START by watching the videos linked above.

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stevejobs-overtime_620x350.jpg

 

Here's a timeline of what we do know based on his own statements.

 

2004: Jobs had a cancerous tumor removed from his pancreas. Pancreatic cancer is usually terminal within a few years, but Jobs said he had a rare form, islet cell neuroendocrine tumor, which has a far better success rate. He said he did not require chemotherapy or radiation.

 

2009: Jobs took a 6-month leave of absence to address, what he called a hormone imbalance that had "been 'robbing' me of the proteins my body needs to be healthy. He said that was too blame for his extremely gaunt appearance.

 

2009: Jobs underwent a liver transplant at Methodist University Hospital Transplant Institute in Memphis, Tenn. A hospital press release called him the "sickest patient on the waiting list at the time a donor organ became available."

 

2011: Jobs takes a leave of absence to restore his health. Cause unknown.

 

 

 

 

 

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I can see a possible chain of causality coming....

 

Steve Jobs gets Ill

. V

Apple stock falls

. V

Other stock indices fall

. V

Apple down despite fabulous earnings. / AAPL-chart

aapl.gif

 

QQQQ fell on decent volume, but 3d/8d cross is not in place yet. / QQQQ-chart : QQQQ-intraday

qqqqv.gif

 

AAPL : 338.84 Change: -1.81 // Percent Change: -0.53%

Open: 348.35 High: 348.60 Low: 336.88 // Volume: 40,557,457

 

QQQQ: $56.51 Change: -0.65 // Percent Change: -1.15%

Open: 57.24 High: 57.26 Low: 56.32 // Volume: 67,767,181

 

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Hope SJ pulls through!

 

Since Apple is second in size in the US only to Exxon Mobil I guess that kind of domino effect could happen.

 

I remember seeing a story on where iphones were being made in China and I felt really ashamed I own a Mac. Surprised that the stories didn't make more of an impact (workers killing themselves, toxins in the work environment causing major permanent nerve damage/neurological damage, struggle for worker compensation)

 

...... to anyone who has cancer I recommend the doctorsaredangerous.com website. It has a DVD for sale with the recipe for "black salve" (it goes by other names in other places). It also has their recommendations for where you can buy it premade. It will only take 3 to 4 days to see if it is going to work.

 

The testimonials on the DVD are very inspiring as they are just normal Aussies who got cancer and tried the mixture. Cool stuff.

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If Apples share price is critically tied to jobs return , i would fear the worst.

 

 

An intelligent informed individual would follow a protocol like this.

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...134159042346609

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...63108843483637# PANCREATIC CANCER CASE HISTORY AT BEGINNING OF THIS VID.

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...809469620535274

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...206011785265094

 

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...629140536485998

 

Dying to Have Known

 

A Documentary Film by Stephen Kroschel Awarded Honorable Mention in the Feature-Length Documentary Category 2006 New York International Independent Film and Video Festival Filmmaker, Stephen Kroschel, sets out to find hard evidence of the effectiveness of the Gerson Therapy, a long-suppressed natual cancer treatment. His travels take him across both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, from upstate New York to San Diego to Alaska, from Japan to Holland and Mexico. In the end, he presents the testimony of patients, scientists, surgeons and nutritionists, who testify to the effectiveness of the Gerson Therapy and shows the hard scientific evidence to back up their claims. The question that remains is, "Why is this powerful curative therapy still suppressed, more than 75 years after it was clearly proven to cure degenerative disease?"

 

 

http://www.snagfilms.com/films/title/the_gerson_miracle/

 

The Gerson Miracle

 

examines why we are so ill and how we have in our grasp the power to recover our health.

The Gerson Miracle examines many of the elements of the Gerson Therapy, explaining why we are so ill and how we have in our grasp the power to recover our health without expensive, toxic or mutilating treatments, using the restorative forces of our own immune systems.

 

Even the most advanced cases of cancer can be successfully reversed using this method. While the results seem miraculous, the real “miracle” lies within our own body and its healing processes

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvzDHGLEUyw

 

The Beautiful Truth

Raised on a wildlife reserve in Alaska, 15-year-old Garrett was interested in the dietary habits of the farm animals. After the tragic death of his mother, Garrett's father decided to home-school his son and assigned a book written by Dr. Max Gerson that proposed a direct link between diet and a cure for cancer.

 

Fascinated, Garrett embarks in this documentary on a cross-country road trip to investigate The Gerson Therapy. He meets with scientists, doctors and cancer survivors who reveal how it is in the best interest of the multi-billion dollar medical industry to dismiss the notion of alternative and natural cures.

 

 

I have been a lurker for a while to this site, and only signed up to thank Fitkid for the links above.

I have only just started watching one of them, but can already tell that this is good information.

The more I try to learn of the World around me, the more everything seems like a conspiracy.

 

Anyhow, back on topic.

Bullish sentiment have been too much recently:

20110120-826c92epmem6hkretufmt9na1t.jpg

Notice how people haven't been more bullish since the stock market topped in 2007 - in these markets the majority is always wrong (as everybody here obviously know already), it is only a matter of time before this will end badly - and it might just have begun yesterday:

The SP 500 went down yesterday:

20110120-fbmh858dwgyfs3sqaed7eia5q1.jpg

 

Although that admittedly wasn't a scary move it was confirmed by a quite severe move in transports:

20110120-mkwpyspwcnj4hjtxe42qgwr2q4.jpg

 

I believe a severe correction in stocks is going to take place and the market is just looking for an excuse to correct - which could be Steve Jobs or anything else really.

 

I am very bullish on Precious metals, but believe this stock correction will be severe enough to take Gold down with it, so the correction in precious metals might not be over yet.

 

Apple is obvious a big player, and quite often things are connected in ways we mere mortals can't see until after the fact.

 

If Jobs is "responsible" for the coming correction in stocks he will take down Gold too.

 

I hope he will be okay. I am a big Apple fan myself (typing this on a MacBook Pro to show my support).

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I am a big Apple fan myself (typing this on a MacBook Pro to show my support).

I personally can't stand the stuff its overpriced and its so incompatible says me an industrial designer!!

 

A few things to consider if the US economy is relying on the health of one man then the US economy is in even worse shape than even I realised.

 

At some point fairly soon if consumers start to tighten thier belts and put a value on function over form then IMO apple will get creamed.

 

Apple as an iconic product is going to get its margins squeezed as its always going to be an easy target for wage and conditions exposes due to its perceived image of groovy young and free (bullsh*t IMO).

 

Most of its anonymous competitors will be able to carry on for longer knocking stuff out of sweat shops whilst Apple won't be able to.

 

The idea that Apple is worth the same ammount as Exxon or the equivalent to the annual global gold production is insane its simply a computer company knocking out stuff slightly quicker and nicer looking than its competitors.

 

Texas instruments once sold the best calculators going a little red LED one did nothing but costs hundreds of pounds - now I can get one free at the local petrol station.

 

Apples fulfills peoples desires for a product not its needs that is its secondary motive take away credit and people forget about desire they merely concentrate on function for the minimum price.

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