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UK House price forecasts for 2011

UK House price forecasts for 2011  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. What increase/decrease do you expect in 2011?

    • Up : More than 3%
      2
    • Up : 1-3%
      0
    • Unchanged : -1% to +1%
      0
    • Down : -1 to -3%
      3
    • Down : -3% to 6%
      8
    • Low crash cruise speed; -6 to -9%
      11
    • High crash cruise speed: -10% or more
      23
    • I have no idea
      2
  2. 2. What will happen to average UK rents

    • They will rise more than 5%
      6
    • Unchanged: -5% to +5%
      32
    • They will fall more than 5%
      9
    • I have no idea
      2
  3. 3. What will happen to mortgage interest rates in 2011?

    • They will rise at least 1% / ie 100bp
      32
    • Unchanged: within 100 bp of 2010 average
      12
    • They will fall at least 1% / ie 100bp
      1
    • I have no idea
      4


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UK House price forecasts for 2011

 

Salmon-weather-vane.jpg

Forecast : Back underwater for UK property ?

 

Let's have your forecast for 2011. And also post forecasts you see in the media.

 

(For purposes of this poll, I am referring to the H&N Index / see: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-data

That is the average of Halifax and Nationwide prices.)

 

+ Roger Bootle "megabear": -10 to 15% in a year "is not impossible"

+ Capital Economics team- : -10.0%

+ DrBubb/ Global Edge Inv. : - 9.0% (London - 6.5%)

+ Tim Waring / Gritty Econ. - : - 7.5%

+ Howard Archer/IHS Global : - 7.0? ("will lose 10% from 2010 peak")

+ IG Index Sep2011 (156.4) : - 6.5% - yoy to Sept.2011

+ Liam Bailey, Knight Frank : - 6.0%

+ Yolanda Barnes, Savills-- : - 3.0% (London - 1.0%)

+ Hometrack, in Dec. 2010- : - 2.0%

+ RICS / Royal Inst. Surv.-- : - 2.0%

+ Halifax & Nationwide ---- : + 0.0% (Both say: "flat in 2011")

 

*For London, I would use the Rightmove asking prices for Greater London

== == ==

 

Link to here- : http://tinyurl.com/GEI-hpi2011

On Twitter--- : http://twitter.com/DrBubb

Search more : http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&amp...=uk+house+price

PT Landlords : http://propertytribes.ning.com/forum/topic...ce-forecast-for

 

Key Words : uk house price forecast 2011 property hpi drbubb crash predictions

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My "official" forecast is: -9% for 2011,

But I think there is a fair chance that price may fall faster than that.

 

Reasons for the expected fall, of near 10%:

+ Sluggish demand due to austerity measures beginning to bite.

+ Rising rates, thanks to cost-push inflation in energy and food prices,

+ Downwards pressure on rents, as Housing Benefit caps come into effect

+ Deterioration of the presently-bullish sentiment

 

During the course of 2011 or 2012, I expect we will see the year-on-year change of to hit -10% and higher.

2012 falls could speed up, if 2011 is -9% and rates are forced higher by rising inflation.

 

Greater London could surprise on the downside, if public sector job cuts bite, and the UK tax regime turns less favorable for the mega-wealthy.

================

 

Here's the House Price Data for 2010 :

(once I have the Dec. figures, I can calculate the HPI for 2010):

Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack chg./ Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :

D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 156,116 - 0.5% / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :

F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 156,584 +0.3% / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :

M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 157,054 +0.3% / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :

A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 157,368 +0.2% / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 157,682 +0.2% / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :

J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 158,700*+0.1% / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :

Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 158,500 - 0.1% / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :

A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,200 - 0.3% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :

S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,600*-0.4% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :

O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 156,200* 0.9% / 164,381 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,828 :- 0.02% :

N : : 229,379 : 420,248 : 155,575 - 0.4% / 163,398 = n/a = 164,708 163,268 : £163,333 :- 0.91% :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248

================

 

Focus : H&N- Index : no yr-on-yr figure yet

Dec. 2009 : £164,681 :+0.30% :

Nov. 2010 : £163,333 : -0.82% - YTD

Dec. 2010 : ? ?

 

In Dec.2010, so far we had this from Hometrack:

Hometrack: -0.4%MoM, -1.6% YoY

================

 

INTEREST RATES: 10 year Gilt Rate ... update

001nz.png

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U.K. House Prices May Extend Drop in 2011, Hometrack Says

 

By Scott Hamilton - Dec 26, 2010 4:01 PM

 

U.K. house prices fell for a sixth month in December and will extend their decline in 2011 on “weak” demand and tighter mortgage-lending conditions, Hometrack Ltd. said.

 

The average cost of a home fell 0.4 percent from last month, and prices will drop a further 2 percent in 2011, the London-based property researcher said in an e-mailed report today. A separate release showed the majority of U.K. retailers predict a decline in sales next year.

 

The Hometrack report also showed sellers had to wait the longest since April 2009 to shift their properties in December and adds to forecasts for a weaker housing market in 2011. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said this month that prices in the fourth quarter of 2011 may be 2 percent lower than current levels, while Rightmove Plc sees sellers cutting asking prices by as much as 5 percent.

 

“We expect house prices to remain under downward pressure in the first half of 2011 on the back of weak demand,” Richard Donnell, Hometrack’s director of research, said in the report. However, “a tightening in supply together with continued low levels of housing transactions will continue to act as something of a support to pricing levels.”

 

Demand for homes, measured by the change in new buyers registering with real-estate agents, fell 4.8 percent in December from November, Hometrack said. That’s the biggest drop since January 2009 and the sixth consecutive monthly decline. The number of homes for sale fell 1.5 percent, the group said.

 

Demand Falls

 

Sellers achieved on average 92.1 percent of the asking price during the month, the lowest proportion since August 2009, while the time taken to sell increased to 10 weeks, Hometrack said.

 

/more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-27/u...track-says.html

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SAVILLs, RICS, Knight Frank

 

 

Yolanda Barnes of estate agent Savills points out that, ‘average UK house prices have already fallen during the second half of 2010 and we expect this to continue in 2011.’ She predicts a decline of 0.5% for 2010 with a further drop of 3% in 2011.

 

As usual, London and the south east will lead the way. ‘There are significant regional variations around this average – with the North and Midlands significantly underperforming London and the South. These variations also apply to different types of property,’ says Barnes.

 

Savills reckons prime central London will continue out-performing with only small falls during 2011 of around 1%. Top quality stock, ‘will out-perform the average over the next five years by about 5%. Poor quality stock on the other hand will underperform by around minus 5%. Over the medium term, we expect house prices in London and the south east to be 25% to 30% higher in five years than they are now but prices in the north east and Yorkshire & Humberside barely changed. At the end of 2015, we expect average UK house prices to be just 12% higher than they are now,’ says Barnes.

 

Liam Bailey of agents Knight Frank is not expecting any fireworks either. ‘The mortgage market has been constrained by tight lending and there is unlikely to be any increase. Our estimate is of a 6% fall in house prices due to the risk of interest rate rises and the impact of government cuts.’ But like Barnes he thinks there will be a two-tier market. ‘Anything that is top quality performs differently from the rest of the market and there is more certainty of a sale with wealthier buyers who have cash. The premium property market has been much more resilient and we expect that to continue in 2011.’

 

Meanwhile, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is predicting a dip of 2% in house prices over the coming year with the possibility of a 5% decline if government austerity measures push up unemployment. ‘Although house prices are likely to continue to slip over the coming months, falling supply should provide a platform for the market to stabilise at some stage in the first half of 2011,’ says Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘Indeed, by the latter part of the year, prices could be edging up again, with the result that by the end of 2011, they may not be very different from where they currently stand.’

 

/more: http://citywire.co.uk/money/house-prices-s...or-2011/a459857

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My "official" forecast for now is: -9% for 2011,

But I think there is a fair chance that price may fall fast than that.

 

And during the course of 2011, I expect we will see yer-on-year changes of -10% or higher.

================

Dec. 2009 : £164,681 :+0.30% :

Nov. 2010 : £163,333 : -0.82% - YTD

 

 

IG Index quoting Sep 2011 Halifax as 156.4 mid, so roughly -6.5% annualised decline.

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house-prices-85-09.jpg

 

house-prices-52-09.jpg

/source: http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/housing/index.html

 

hp-earnings-ratio-92-09.jpg

/source: http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/blog/hous...atistics-in-uk/

 

FACTORS

 

Factors Reducing House Prices

+ More sellers than buyers. Very weak buyer demand.

+ Distressed selling is becoming more prevalent particularly at the higher end of the market.

+ Baby boomers and the inheritance generation are starting to liquidate assets as parents downsize, die, move to sheltered accommodation or just look to boost pension income.

+ The financial squeeze and lack of consumer confidence may make matters worse. In particular, the prospect of spending cuts in 2011 is raising fears over a prolonged economic slump. Many jobs could be lost in the public sector with knock on effects.

+ The mortgage and remortgage market remains in turmoil. In particular proposed mortgage regulation could make it even more difficult to get mortgages. For example, proposal to end interest only mortgages.

+ As prices drop the equity against a mortgage drops and it is harder to remortgage.

+ New property has come onto the market and has yet to become fully occupied.

+ Buy to let investment has dramatically slowed down.

+ First time buyers have lost confidence and have less savings for a sizeable deposit.

+ The housing market is very nervous.

 

On the Plus Side

+ House prices defied expectations in 2009 and early 2010, indicating the UK still has an underlying shortage relative to population.

+ Very low interest rates which have increased mortgage affordability are likely to persist for foreseeable future

 

/source: http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/blog/uk-h...se-prices-2011/

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Down about 5% nominal

 

No real change in rents or mortgage rates (without major systematic shock).

 

== == == == ==

 

(added by DrBubb):

 

GEI FORECASTERS

================

+ DrBubb/ Global Edge Inv. : - 9.0% (London - 6.5%)

+ John Doe / GEI ------------ : - 5.0% ("No real change in rents or mortgage rates")

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ABOUT SENTIMENT...

 

Exactly.

The majority of UK residents look at housing totally differently.

It's easy to forget this sometimes, especially when spending lots of time either here or HPC.

MEANING?

 

What exactly do you mean by this?

Is it:

+ People will buy whether or not they think prices will fall?, or:

+ People don't bother to study the market much, they buy when it suits their life aspirations, so long as they can afford it?

 

If one or both are true, then there will be some "mechanical" buying, even if sentiment is "damaged".

 

My own view is that prices will slide so severely over the next 2-3 years, and mortgages beyond 50% LTV will become so hard to obtain, that even those mindless "mechanical" buyers will be forced to think twice before they buy.

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Signs of property market bottoming out (?)

By Adrian Lowery .. 9 December 2010

 

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and...7#ixzz19JFkiP6L

 

'The 0.1% drop in house prices in November reported by the Halifax is consistent with our view that house prices will trend down gradually overall to lose around 10% from their peak 2010 levels by the end of 2011,' said Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight.

 

'This implies that house prices have around another 7.5% to fall.'

 

The property market is suffering from a number of negative economic factors: high unemployment, muted wage growth, the fiscal squeeze, low consumer confidence, and difficulties in getting a mortgage - particularly for first time buyers.

 

But according to Archer, 'There are some signs that the number of properties coming on to the market are starting to dip, which could provide support to house prices. At the moment though, buyer enquires are slowing more than new houses coming on to the market.'

== == ==

 

+ Howard Archer /IHS Global : - 6.0? ("will lose 10% from 2010 peak")

===

169,287

-16,929 - 10% (-.94, -2.42, -3,36

=======

152,258

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My own view is that prices will slide so severely over the next 2-3 years, and mortgages beyond 50% LTV will become so hard to obtain, that even those mindless "mechanical" buyers will be forced to think twice before they buy.

Can you put some numbers against that?

 

Right now the average house price is £164k (ish) and 90% mortgages are available. So the average house has a minimum £17k deposit requirement.

 

What will prices be after they 'slide so severely'?

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Can you put some numbers against that?

 

Right now the average house price is £164k (ish) and 90% mortgages are available. So the average house has a minimum £17k deposit requirement.

 

What will prices be after they 'slide so severely'?

Obviously, I have no "exact" figures to offer to you. So I will give some guesstimates...

 

I could see prices falling perhaps 20% by late 2012: cf: £164k-£32k=£132k (ish)

 

I do not think that 90% mortgages are widely available not. Perhaps 60-70% mortgages are.

After a fall like that, perhaps 50-60% mortgages would be available.

 

Let's compare

======= Today : late'2012

Home Price: £164k : £132k

"high max " : 70 % : 60 %

Loan amount: £115k : £ 79k

Deposit reqd £ 39k : £ 53k

"low max. " : 60 % : 50 %

Loan amount: £ 98k : £ 66k

Deposit reqd £ 66k : £ 66k

 

To put this another way...

If prices were set by the size Mortgage loans that people can readily obtain, and the size of deposits held by the average buyer, then:

 

+ If the average buyer has a £ 66k deposit, and the average bank is willing to lend 60% today, then it sets prices at the current level of Home Prices: £164k.

 

Change the average bank's loan to 50%, and that will drive prices down to:

 

+ If the average buyer has a £ 66k deposit, and the average bank is willing to lend 50% in late 2012, then the calculation sets prices at the future level of Home Prices: £132k.

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Obviously, I have no "exact" figures to offer to you. So I will give some guesstimates...

We are all guessing

 

I do not think that 90% mortgages are widely available not. Perhaps 60-70% mortgages are.

After a fall like that, perhaps 50-60% mortgages would be available.

Anyone with a half decent credit record can get a 90% mortgage as long as they can satisfy the banks affordability requirements.

 

If people cannot get a 90% mortgage it's because

1. They can't afford the house according the the banks affordability calculator

2. They've not shown they can responsibly handle a credit facility.

 

I'll wait for you to finish your figures and then do my own with 90% mortgage.

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Let's compare

======= Today : late'2012

Home Price: £164k : £132k

"high max " : 70 % : 60 %

Loan amount: £115k : £ 79k

Deposit reqd £ 39k : £ 53k

"low max. " : 60 % : 50 %

Loan amount: £ 98k : £ 66k

Deposit reqd £ 66k : £ 66k

 

To put this another way...

If prices were set by the size Mortgage loans that people can readily obtain, and the size of deposits held by the average buyer, then:

 

+ If the average buyer has a £ 66k deposit, and the average bank is willing to lend 60% today, then it sets prices at the current level of Home Prices: £164k.

 

Change the average bank's loan to 50%, and that will drive prices down to:

 

+ If the average buyer has a £ 66k deposit, and the average bank is willing to lend 50% in late 2012, then the calculation sets prices at the future level of Home Prices: £132k.

I'll do 90% mortgage figures later. There's another point I want to pick up on here.

 

If the average house requires a £66k deposit, the average FTB will not be able to buy one (without many years/decades of saving). So the average FTB will have to buy a hole in a poor area or rent IF there's a suitable rental property available.

 

That doesn't sound like a brighter future.They are better off taking the 90% mortgage and going out NOW to buy an average property (if there's one available to buy)

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Let's compare

 

======= Today : late'2012

Home Price: £164k : £132k

"high max " : 90 % : 60 %

Loan amount: £147.6k : £ 79k

Deposit reqd £ 16.4k : £ 53k

 

£53k deposit!!!

 

Ouch!!!!!

 

I think all these people may be better off buying now if they can get together a £17k deposit and find an average property before the mortgage tightening and price falls come.

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Can you put some numbers against that?

 

Right now the average house price is £164k (ish) and 90% mortgages are available. So the average house has a minimum £17k deposit requirement.

 

What will prices be after they 'slide so severely'?

90% is too high.

Very few can get mortgages at such levels. Perhaps 60-70% would be more normal today.

 

After a 20% price fall, even 70% mortgages are likely to be abnormal. Maybe 50-60% mortgages would be widely available. Let's see what a 10% fall in LTV's does to prices...

 

======= Today : late'2012

Home Price: £164k : £132k

"high max " : 70 % : 60 %

Loan amount: £115k : £ 79k

Deposit reqd £ 39k : £ 53k

"low max. " : 60 % : 50 %

Loan amount: £ 98k : £ 66k

Deposit reqd £ 66k : £ 66k

 

If the average buyer has a £ 66k deposit, and the average bank today lends 60% against such deposit, then that sets the home price at £164k.

 

Dial down the LTV to 50%, and keep the deposit at £ 66k, then you will see a big slide in House prices.

 

There's still a long way to go to bring back Lending ratios and LTV's to what were once considered "normal" levels:

 

 

In a sliding market, a bank will only be easily willing to lend against a big chunky deposit like 40-50%. They have been incredibly reckless for a long time, and falling prices will revaeal the dangers inherent in the crazy lending policies of the last 5-6 years.

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£53k deposit!!!

Ouch!!!!!

I think all these people may be better off buying now if they can get together a £17k deposit and find an average property before the mortgage tightening and price falls come.

In what possible way would they be "better off"?

 

They and their banks (lending against skimpy deposits) will get SLAUGHTERED by price falls,

especially if interest rates rise.

 

You will see a mess in the UK like we see already in the US, Ireland, and Spain.

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If the average house requires a £66k deposit, the average FTB will not be able to buy one (without many years/decades of saving).

At some point, FTBers will have to make up a big percentage of buyers,

and prices will have to FALL TO A LEVEL that they can cope with.

 

I see that happening by:

+ Big falls in house prices,

+ Higher deposits being saved, even if it takes some years

+ Banks lending a bit more to FTBers than they do to BTL investors (the opposite of what they HAVE done.)

+ Vendors accepting 2nd mortgages as part of the purchase prices (as in the US)

 

You may see banks lending 70-75% to FTBers, and a maximum of 60-65% to BTL investors.

 

I think FTBers may be a better risk, since they may be more emotionally committed to their properties, and with some prospects of increasing their incomes as they get olders.

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90% is too high.

Very few can get mortgages at such levels. Perhaps 60-70% would be more normal today.

I disagree. We can go round this circle all day. I don't have any data to show how many people apply and are accepted for a 90% mortgage. I don't think you have any either.

 

Do you accept 90% mortgages are available? - The best way an individual can find out if they qualify is to apply for one and see if they get it.

 

Naughty Bear has just tried the affordability calculator at Nationwide. They will lend 143,600 to a couple with a 17,000 deposit and earnings of 25k+ 12k.

 

After a 20% price fall, even 70% mortgages are likely to be abnormal. Maybe 50-60% mortgages would be widely available. Let's see what a 10% fall in LTV's does to prices...

 

 

======= Today : late'2012

Home Price: £164k : £132k

"high max " : 70 % : 60 %

Loan amount: £115k : £ 79k

Deposit reqd £ 39k : £ 53k

"low max. " : 60 % : 50 %

Loan amount: £ 98k : £ 66k

Deposit reqd £ 66k : £ 66k

 

If the average buyer has a £ 66k deposit, and the average bank today lends 60% against such deposit, then that sets the home price at £164k.

 

Dial down the LTV to 50%, and keep the deposit at £ 66k, then you will see a big slide in House prices.

Yes I agree with you. So people might be better off buying now while mortgages are available at higher LTVs

 

There's still a long way to go to bring back Lending ratios and LTV's to what were once considered "normal" levels:

Incorrect. The average LTV is very low in the UK. The banks must give out more higher LTV mortgages to get the average LTV back to historical norms.

 

In a sliding market, a bank will only be easily willing to lend against a big chunky deposit like 40-50%. They have been incredibly reckless for a long time, and falling prices will revaeal the dangers inherent in the crazy lending policies of the last 5-6 years.

Agreed. So it may be better to buy now.

 

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A SELLERS' STRIKE ?

 

The property bulls have a weird and twisted idea. They think they can hold prices up by encouraging vendors to just refuse to sell at lower prices.

 

Here's how they put it on the Comments section of one of the articles:

 

3)

3. So, that means if I am offering to buy TODAY I need to drop my offer price by 5% to factor in the property value for 2011. I'll do exactly that and the seller won't sell.....so there will be no transation.- Norfolk N' Chance, Essex

 

9)

9. Number 3 is right, we just will not sell, and that will push the prices up the prices back up.

N, UK / Posted: 22 December 2010

 

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and...7#ixzz19JgUEXoP

== == ==

 

The big fallacy here is that a big number of sellers can go "on strike." There will always be some that MUST SELL, because of:

+ Death

+ Divorce

+ Moving to a remote location

+ Change of circumstances, especially in a weak economy, or when rates rise.

 

It is easier to get BUYERS TO GO ON STRIKE. Afterall, they have the choice of just renting. And if banks tighten there lending, then buyers will stop buying until prices fall enough to make properties affordable under new lending conditions.

 

Strap a bright red nose, on numbers 3 and 9, above.

 

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At some point, FTBers will have to make up a big percentage of buyers,

and prices will have to FALL TO A LEVEL that they can cope with.

 

I see that happening by:

+ Big falls in house prices,

+ Higher deposits being saved, even if it takes some years

+ Banks lending a bit more to FTBers than they do to BTL investors (the opposite of what they HAVE done.)

+ Vendors accepting 2nd mortgages as part of the purchase prices (as in the US)

 

You may see banks lending 70-75% to FTBers, and a maximum of 60-65% to BTL investors.

 

I think FTBers may be a better risk, since they may be more emotionally committed to their properties, and with some prospects of increasing their incomes as they get olders.

FTB do get replaced by BTL, this has happened before and is happening now. BTL's can get 80% mortgages and FTB can get 90% mortgages.

Many BTL's are happy with a 6% yield (I know, wierd, I would want 10% at least).

 

My point earlier was particular to the UK sentiment re houses.

People generally don't study the market much, in fact, you'd be amazed just how little.

 

It is ingrained in the psyche. BUY A HOUSE... BUY A HOUSE...

 

The grief (yes grief) we got from family and friends when we STR'd (both times) was amazing. Other people we knew that STR'd suffered the same fate.

We resisted (it was easy for me as I knew it was the right thing to do at the time) and we only bought again when it was right for us.

 

Others really do let the pressure get to them.

 

 

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In what possible way would they be "better off"?

They are likely to be victims of crime if they buy in a total hole. I'm not saying, "Buy NOW or get your head kicked in" or nuffink, but... ... it's hard to see it any other way.

 

You seem to have totally missed the fact that people will only be able to buy in the worst areas with the dreggs of society if the average house requires such a large deposit.

 

They and their banks (lending against skimpy deposits) will get SLAUGHTERED by price falls,

especially if interest rates rise.

You will see a mess in the UK like we see already in the US, Ireland, and Spain.

You've explained why interest rates will not rise significantly.

 

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I disagree. We can go round this circle all day. I don't have any data to show how many people apply and are accepted for a 90% mortgage. I don't think you have any either.

This has been discussed more than once on prior GEI threads, and many folks spoke about how difficult it is to obtain higher percentage loans, unless someone has a very high income (relative to a property's cost.)

 

Also, those high percentage loans are much more expensive in the fees and interest rate levels paid.

 

70-80% seems like a normal maximum. But to get a cheaper loan the maximum LTV% might be 65% or so.

 

I welcome others to comment. I am sitting in Hong Kong, and so am reliant on what I read elsewhere,

 

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My point earlier was particular to the UK sentiment re houses.

People generally don't study the market much, in fact, you'd be amazed just how little.

It is ingrained in the psyche. BUY A HOUSE... BUY A HOUSE...

As I said, they will get SLAUGHTERED.

This video will give you an idea of what is coming:

 

Those who over-paid will think they have a "flesh wound" until they find they are immobilised by negative equity.

 

I reckon the market will not make a major low until the sentiment has been transformed, and people see property buying as something dangerous to their economic wellbeing.

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As I said, they will get SLAUGHTERED.

This video will give you an idea of what is coming:

xx

xx

I'm not saying they wouldn't if prices fell significantly (which I still think will only happen if rates rise significantly), just saying what the psyche is.

 

I didn't get the video link, but thanks for the kisses :P

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