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Will the great deleveraging return in 2011 ?

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Will the great deleveraging return in 2011 ?

US Consumer spending vs. Loans

===============================

 

There seems to be a contradiction here

 

(1)

consumer-credit.png

/source: http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/the-gr...ging-t9178.html

 

(2)

chart01.gif

 

(3) But it resolves when you push the chart further-

This is G40 Debt Outstanding

DebtM2RatioTrends.gif

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COMPARISON - Which major country has the most debt?

 

201020src332.gif

 

 

... and which currencies are most heavily used for Carry Trades ?

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Mish Shedlock...

 

Why the United States of America is Broke

 

Explaining why America is broke is rather simple. All we have to do is look at two separate and distinct problem areas: public unions and defense spending, then generalize the problem. Let's start with a look at defense spending.

 

Here's an article on Foreign Affairs magazine by William Pfaaf making a solid case How Militarism Endangers America . The article is subscription, but a decent sized synopsis and lead-in follows:

 

Summary:

 

The United States has built a worldwide system of more than 1,000 military bases, stations, and outposts -- a system designed to enhance U.S. national security. It has actually done the opposite, provoking conflict and creating insecurity.

 

WILLIAM PFAFF wrote a syndicated column that appeared in the International Herald Tribune from 1978 to 2006 and contributed political "Reflections" to The New Yorker from 1971 to 1992. His latest book, The Irony of Manifest Destiny: The Tragedy of America's Foreign Policy, was published in June.

 

[Article Start]

 

It is time to ask a fundamental question that few government officials or politicians in the United States seem willing to ask: Has it been a terrible error for the United States to have built an all-but-irreversible worldwide system of more than 1,000 military bases, stations, and outposts? This system was created to enhance U.S. national security, but what if it has actually done the opposite, provoking conflict and creating the very insecurity it was intended to prevent?

 

The most compelling arguments for opposing this system of global bases are political and practical. U.S. military bases have generated apprehension and hostility and fear of the United States, and they have facilitated futile, unnecessary, unprofitable, and self-defeating wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and now seem to be inviting enlarged U.S. interventions in Pakistan, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa. The 9/11 attacks, according to Osama bin Laden himself, were provoked by the "blasphemy" of the existence of U.S. military bases in the sacred territories of Saudi Arabia. The global base system, it seems, tends to produce and intensify the very insecurity that is cited to justify it.

 

AN ACCIDENTAL EMPIRE

 

The United States' present global military deployment does not seem to be the product of conscious design, nor was it assembled absent-mindedly. In part, it is the natural result of bureaucracy left unchecked. At the end of World War II, a precipitous dismantling of the U.S. wartime deployment was halted only by the outbreak of the Cold War. The United States' intervention in Vietnam brought some base expansion in Southeast Asia, but after its failure in Vietnam, the U.S. military was determined to have nothing further to do with insurgencies and quickly returned to reorganization and retraining for what it still considered its primary mission: classical warfare in Europe in the event of a Soviet invasion. This eventually led to the brilliant blitzkrieg against Iraq in the first Gulf War, fought under the Powell Doctrine of popular support, overwhelming force, focused objectives, and rapid withdrawal.

 

America's Misdirected Missile

 

I am 100% in agreement with the synopsis and prelude as presented above. Here is a second article on the same subject. This one is courtesy of the Business Spectator.

 

Please consider America's Misdirected Missile by Alexander Liddington-Cox.

 

The latest WikiLeaks scoop for The Age is a cable from the United States embassy in Canberra expressing concern to Washington about Australia's ability to meet its purchases of military equipment. Australia's defence budget currently sits at around $22 billion a year and, apparently, US diplomats were left unimpressed by the efforts of Australia's Defence Materiel Organisation chief Stephen Gumley to explain how Australia would meet its aims to increase military spending, as laid out in the White Paper. While the article didn't reveal whether or not the cable's author appreciated the irony of a US official lecturing anyone about measured military spending, this graph should really be passed on to them – just in case.

 

While this graph puts the US defence budget at $US711 billion in 2009, that doesn't include a number of "off-budget" items that, on some estimates, push US defence spending above $US1.3 trillion. And yet, America continues to drown in debt with only modest efforts to reign in how much it puts towards guns, tanks and missiles. Now, being the world's superpower invariably comes with a large military budget and sure some cash can go missing. But in 2002, then Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld admitted that on some estimates the Pentagon had lost track of $US2.3 trillion in transactions and there was no way of ascertaining how the money was spent. How long will it be before the US really does something about its own military spending problems?

 

global%20military%20spending.png

For a complete graph and additional commentary, please see the article.

 

There is no rational reason for such spending. So how does it happen? The answer is the same way we are stuck with collective bargaining and absurd public union wages and benefits. Let's compare.

 

/more: http://howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=15470

 

(Note: I wonder how much of the "military spending" goes to Black Ops ?)

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Here's Nicole Fosse / Stoneleigh warning on the Canadian Property bubble:

 

Canada is on the cusp of the shift from an extreme of complacency born of easy money to the fear of a sudden realization of being desperately over-stretched ("like butter spread over too much bread", as Bilbo said in The Lord of the Rings). Canadians carry a higher debt load than Americans, as well as using more energy per capita than anyone else in the world (with the worst structural dependency on cheap energy as a result), yet we feel special - insulated from the rest of the world, as if bad things only happen to others. Our bubble is set to implode, as all bubbles eventually do.

 

We have warned Canadians before at The Automatic Earth that they are living in financial fantasy world:

 

Bubble Case Studies: Ireland and Canada

In Canada, where I am currently, there is still a sense of invulnerability. We haven't got as far as denial yet. That's hardly surprising when you can't tell a crack-shack from a mansion in places like Vancouver.

 

/more: http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

== ==

 

Daniele Park sounds a similar warning on Howe Street:

 

 

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why is there defence spending relevant to delevering?

Two reasons:

+ It was the principal cause of the US indebtedness

(In fact, I think the Black ops spending in areas directed by the Illuminati are a big part of it)

+ If defense spending is cutback, the US can reduce its indebtedness, and deleverage

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Obama's 7 nagging headaches

Mish Shedlock...

 

Why the United States of America is Broke

...in 2002, then Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld admitted that on some estimates the Pentagon had lost track of $US2.3 trillion in transactions and there was no way of ascertaining how the money was spent. How long will it be before the US really does something about its own military spending problems?

global%20military%20spending.png

 

The frigging Military Industrial complex has probably already bankrupted America

 

1/

Per today's SCMP:

"US Military spending, on which it will spend more than US$700 billion next year, twice as much as in 2001, and as much as is spent by the rest of of world's militaries combined. China spends about 12 per cent of what America does, and only 2% of GDP, against more than 4 % by the US.

 

...It would be naive to write all military spending as wasted money, but both Washington and Beijing would be advised to read US president Dwight Eisnehower's speech on the dangers of the military industrial complex."

 

From:

 

Longer version :

 

===============

Obama's other 6 "nagging headaches"

 

2/

The desire of the young in America to avoid anything requiring hard effort (Facebook rather than email)

 

3/

Lack of faith in corporate American in America's future

 

4/

China's determination to squeeze every advantage from foreign investors

 

5/

China's Tianhe-1A "milky way" supercomputer

 

6/

The failing US education system, and Anerica's low international ranking

 

7/

Politrical polarisatin and US deficits. (the highest paid, such as bankers, resist attacks on their privileges.)

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Mish Shedlock...

 

Why the United States of America is Broke

 

Explaining why America is broke is rather simple. All we have to do is look at two separate and distinct problem areas: public unions and defense spending, then generalize the problem. Let's start with a look at defense spending.

 

Here's an article on Foreign Affairs magazine by William Pfaaf making a solid case How Militarism Endangers America . The article is subscription, but a decent sized synopsis and lead-in follows:

 

Summary:

 

The United States has built a worldwide system of more than 1,000 military bases, stations, and outposts -- a system designed to enhance U.S. national security. It has actually done the opposite, provoking conflict and creating insecurity.

 

WILLIAM PFAFF wrote a syndicated column that appeared in the International Herald Tribune from 1978 to 2006 and contributed political "Reflections" to The New Yorker from 1971 to 1992. His latest book, The Irony of Manifest Destiny: The Tragedy of America's Foreign Policy, was published in June.

 

[Article Start]

 

It is time to ask a fundamental question that few government officials or politicians in the United States seem willing to ask: Has it been a terrible error for the United States to have built an all-but-irreversible worldwide system of more than 1,000 military bases, stations, and outposts? This system was created to enhance U.S. national security, but what if it has actually done the opposite, provoking conflict and creating the very insecurity it was intended to prevent?

 

The most compelling arguments for opposing this system of global bases are political and practical. U.S. military bases have generated apprehension and hostility and fear of the United States, and they have facilitated futile, unnecessary, unprofitable, and self-defeating wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and now seem to be inviting enlarged U.S. interventions in Pakistan, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa. The 9/11 attacks, according to Osama bin Laden himself, were provoked by the "blasphemy" of the existence of U.S. military bases in the sacred territories of Saudi Arabia. The global base system, it seems, tends to produce and intensify the very insecurity that is cited to justify it.

 

AN ACCIDENTAL EMPIRE

 

The United States' present global military deployment does not seem to be the product of conscious design, nor was it assembled absent-mindedly. In part, it is the natural result of bureaucracy left unchecked. At the end of World War II, a precipitous dismantling of the U.S. wartime deployment was halted only by the outbreak of the Cold War. The United States' intervention in Vietnam brought some base expansion in Southeast Asia, but after its failure in Vietnam, the U.S. military was determined to have nothing further to do with insurgencies and quickly returned to reorganization and retraining for what it still considered its primary mission: classical warfare in Europe in the event of a Soviet invasion. This eventually led to the brilliant blitzkrieg against Iraq in the first Gulf War, fought under the Powell Doctrine of popular support, overwhelming force, focused objectives, and rapid withdrawal.

 

America's Misdirected Missile

 

I am 100% in agreement with the synopsis and prelude as presented above. Here is a second article on the same subject. This one is courtesy of the Business Spectator.

 

Please consider America's Misdirected Missile by Alexander Liddington-Cox.

 

The latest WikiLeaks scoop for The Age is a cable from the United States embassy in Canberra expressing concern to Washington about Australia's ability to meet its purchases of military equipment. Australia's defence budget currently sits at around $22 billion a year and, apparently, US diplomats were left unimpressed by the efforts of Australia's Defence Materiel Organisation chief Stephen Gumley to explain how Australia would meet its aims to increase military spending, as laid out in the White Paper. While the article didn't reveal whether or not the cable's author appreciated the irony of a US official lecturing anyone about measured military spending, this graph should really be passed on to them – just in case.

 

While this graph puts the US defence budget at $US711 billion in 2009, that doesn't include a number of "off-budget" items that, on some estimates, push US defence spending above $US1.3 trillion. And yet, America continues to drown in debt with only modest efforts to reign in how much it puts towards guns, tanks and missiles. Now, being the world's superpower invariably comes with a large military budget and sure some cash can go missing. But in 2002, then Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld admitted that on some estimates the Pentagon had lost track of $US2.3 trillion in transactions and there was no way of ascertaining how the money was spent. How long will it be before the US really does something about its own military spending problems?

 

global%20military%20spending.png

For a complete graph and additional commentary, please see the article.

 

There is no rational reason for such spending. So how does it happen? The answer is the same way we are stuck with collective bargaining and absurd public union wages and benefits. Let's compare.

 

/more: http://howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=15470

 

(Note: I wonder how much of the "military spending" goes to Black Ops ?)

 

I have a few American friends here that work in Iraq and Afghanistan as 'contractors'. Nothing sinister, just housing maintainence, logistics and civilian security on the bases, also training local people in construction and engineering skills, like welding.

 

A bloke that wanders around a housing unit check to see if doors are locked and checking passes gets around $170,000 a year plus flights and 'R&R' and that's just what the contractor pays him. The contractor will get likely three times that for providing this chap from the US government.

 

Bizarre stories of waste and bureaucracy on a massive scale. Paper chases and inefficient, incompetent management.

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I have a few American friends here that work in Iraq and Afghanistan as 'contractors'. Nothing sinister, just housing maintainence, logistics and civilian security on the bases, also training local people in construction and engineering skills, like welding.

 

A bloke that wanders around a housing unit check to see if doors are locked and checking passes gets around $170,000 a year plus flights and 'R&R' and that's just what the contractor pays him. The contractor will get likely three times that for providing this chap from the US government.

 

Bizarre stories of waste and bureaucracy on a massive scale. Paper chases and inefficient, incompetent management.

It is disgusting!

The only way to deal with it is to chop military spending in half, and then cut it in half again.

 

Meantime, the adult children play their childish games, unaware that their future has been given away to Bozo military types, playing power games:

 

snowball_fight.top.jpg

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A few brave souls from New York City's tech crowd ventured into blizzard-covered streets Monday for venture capitalist Charlie O'Donnell's second annual tech snowball fight.

 

O'Donnell, a principal with First Round Capital, organized the fight on Twitter, recruiting participants with the hash tag #techsnowball. He also advertised the battle through his weekly tech newsletter. Typically jam-packed with events, this week the newsletter featured just one: "INNOVATION COMMUNITY SNOWBALL FIGHT!"

 

16Email Print CommentAs shop owners salted their sidewalks and residents tried to free their cars from beneath mountains of snow, techies gathered at Madison Square Park to network in freezing temperatures.

 

Although the extreme weather conditions -- and city-wide subway shutdowns --kept turnout down, fears of frostbite didn't deter a few dozen revelers from showing up for snowball-assisted networking.

 

Nick Ganju, CTO and founder of ZocDoc, a three-year-old startup that helps patients book doctor appointments online, came with a business agenda.

 

"I came here specifically to hire people," Ganju said in between snowball tosses.

 

Ganju's startup, which recently closed a $15 million funding round led by Founders Fund, handed out cards reading "ZocDoc is hiring Rockstar devs!"

 

"You got to hustle," said Alex Taub, a business developer at Aviary, which offers free photo-editing and other Web creations tools.

/more: http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/27/technology...google_business

 

== ==

If they are lucky, they will wind up as waiters in restaurants serving wealthy Chinese tourists.

 

Not serious, they vote celebrities into office, and give away their futures

 

Let's raise rates, and bring back some sense and discipline

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It is disgusting!

The only way to deal with it is to chop military spending in half, and then cut it in half again.

 

Meantime, the adult children play their childish games, unaware that their future has been given away to Bozo military types, playing power games:

 

snowball_fight.top.jpg

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A few brave souls from New York City's tech crowd ventured into blizzard-covered streets Monday for venture capitalist Charlie O'Donnell's second annual tech snowball fight.

. . .

== ==

If they are lucky, they will wind up as waiters in restaurants serving wealthy Chinese tourists.

 

Not serious, they vote celebrities into office, and give away their futures

 

Let's raise rates, and bring back some sense and discipline

 

Honeywell, Haliburton, KBR, ITT . . . why do you think these firms have such high incomes?

 

They're not in the desert for fun.

 

The latest is the great austerity over there. People on incomes of $200k plus and then some and then some more again . . . great investigations into why a tail light on a $20,000 pick-up truck was broken, who broke it, who had it last, why wasn't an accident report submitted to the Military Police, reprimands for those responsible . . . reports . . . and so on . . .

 

It's the stuff of Sargent Bilco.

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If you can spare the time (over the holidays)...

 

This makes interesting listening:

 

Project Camelot interviews Dr Pete Peterson - part 1 of 3

 

Mr. Peterson is a clever man who has chosen to live in a secluded and protected part of the USA.

His reasons and logic are worth pondering.

 

EXCERPT:

"The third ever closed session of Congress..."

(He is cryptic on this - but says material is available on the web.)

 

BR: Is there anything you can say on record about a recent Congressional session that you attended?

 

PP: Yes. Uh... Probably better not said.

 

BR: Okay.

 

PP: Just note that there was the third... my understanding... it was the third-ever closed session of Congress.

 

BR: Okay. I understand.

 

KC: But it is on Google, so...

 

PP: Yeah, I think many things have leaked out about it on Google. We found that no matter where the politician was and what committee he was on, when top secret things were talked about, they wanted to close the session early, so they could get out and put their tips out to the news. We don’t have any confidentiality in that. It leaked out, I’m sure.

 

BR: Am I right in assuming that you wouldn’t contradict those leaks?

 

PP: I wouldn’t contradict them at all.

 

BR: Thank you.

 

KC: But weren’t they told to... weren't some of them getting out of the country to relocate in South America? Ask him that.

 

PP: That’s my understanding.

 

KC: George Green has given us testimony to that effect.

 

PP: Yeah. That’s my understanding that a number of them felt that, once the people found out what had been done to them by their representatives, they felt that it would be much better for their health and safety to be somewhere else.

 

BR: Mm-hm. And that kind of says it all. Do you know anything, or suspect anything, about once the financial system fails, if it does so, what would it be replaced by?

 

PP: Well, up until a few days ago I would say it would’ve been replaced by a world currency. Remember, the last four Presidents have all been members of the Council on Foreign Relations, and have openly stated that they’re moving toward a One World government and believe we should have a One World government. If we had a One World government, we’d probably have a One World currency.

 

/ TRANSCRIPT: http://www.projectcamelot.org/lang/en/dr_p...ll_ryan_en.html

== == ==

 

An "intuitive dissection":

http://projectavalon.net/forum/archive/ind...hp/t-16331.html

 

Some reactions to the interview Peterson did with David Wilcock:

http://divinecosmos.com/forums/archive/ind...hp/t-13570.html

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WHERE IS DR PETE PETERSON ??

 

+ A place where it snows

+ A huge reservoir

+ Can be shut off from the outside world with a stick of dynamite

+ Grows plenty of food

 

== ==

Where is Pete Peterson located? (is this the same one?)

Cold Spring, MN

http://www.jobster.com/at/person/show/9000430.

Who is Dr Pete Peterson? I spent the past 2 hours trying to ...

http://www.directhit.com/ansres/Pete-Peterson.html

Who was Pete Peterson?

Pete" Peterson (born June 26, 1935, Omaha, Nebraska) was a U.S. Air Force pilot who spent over six years (September 10, 1966 – March 4, 1973) as a ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Peterson

 

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WHERE IS PETE PETERSON ??

 

+ A place where it snows

+ A huge reservoir

+ Can be shut off from the outside world with a stick of dynamite

+ Grows plenty of food

 

Probably Canada.

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WHERE IS PETE PETERSON ??

 

+ A place where it snows

+ A huge reservoir

+ Can be shut off from the outside world with a stick of dynamite

+ Grows plenty of food

With a swiss miss

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Here's Nicole Fosse / Stoneleigh warning on the Canadian Property bubble:

 

Canada is on the cusp of the shift from an extreme of complacency born of easy money to the fear of a sudden realization of being desperately over-stretched ("like butter spread over too much bread", as Bilbo said in The Lord of the Rings). Canadians carry a higher debt load than Americans, as well as using more energy per capita than anyone else in the world (with the worst structural dependency on cheap energy as a result), yet we feel special - insulated from the rest of the world, as if bad things only happen to others. Our bubble is set to implode, as all bubbles eventually do.

 

We have warned Canadians before at The Automatic Earth that they are living in financial fantasy world:

 

Bubble Case Studies: Ireland and Canada

In Canada, where I am currently, there is still a sense of invulnerability. We haven't got as far as denial yet. That's hardly surprising when you can't tell a crack-shack from a mansion in places like Vancouver.

 

/more: http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

== ==

 

Daniele Park sounds a similar warning on Howe Street:

 

 

Bubb>>Still think you're holding 'safe dollars' when you hold CAD? The housing bubble bursting will hit Australia and Canada this year IMHO.

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Bubb>>Still think you're holding 'safe dollars' when you hold CAD? The housing bubble bursting will hit Australia and Canada this year IMHO.

That's possible.

And I have downsized a bit recently on C$, moving more to HK$ (and to options)

 

I'm still not ready to move to precious, although today precious metals are looking strong again.

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Dr Pete Peterson (lol)

 

If I were in the US I'd do the same. I still predict the population of NZ will swell in the next few years and this is the best and safest place to be.

 

Maybe he has hydroponics to help him grow food in case of mass climate issues/a back up system.

 

Up in the wop wops I'd say.

 

 

,,,,,,,,,,video is nearly two hours long................and that's just the first one of three.

 

Pete Peterson deserves his own thread.

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I'm still not ready to move to precious, although today precious metals are looking strong again.

...and with a rate rise in China.

 

I don't think gold will simply rise or fall on some "linear logic here", whether the logic be one of deleveraging or hyper-inflation. I reckon it will continue to rise slowly, with the current trend, on the back of uncertainty.

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,,,,,,,,,,video is nearly two hours long................and that's just the first one of three.

Pete Peterson deserves his own thread.

I agree.

When had one from before, but there was little interest.

 

He has enough ideas to trigger some discussion, I would have thought

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I agree.

When had one from before, but there was little interest.

 

He has enough ideas to trigger some discussion, I would have thought

 

I sort lost interest, concentration, then consciousness when they started going about little green men in flying saucers.

 

Seems to be a theme of late. :unsure:

 

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I sort lost interest, concentration, then consciousness when they started going about little green men in flying saucers.

Seems to be a theme of late. :unsure:

Yes.

I felt that way too, first time I listened,

Then I went back a second time, and began to "get" his story - He claims to be an insider in a huge Black Ops cover-up, which he served as a warrior and as an inventor.

 

In fact, the Dr Pete Peterson interview was the one that opened my mind to the reality of that point of view. In other words, it was an eye owner.

 

After listening to countless hours of testimony, including this one:

U.F.O DISCLOSURE PROJECT -Full Version

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vyVe-6YdUk

 

Eventually, I came to accept that there must be some truth to the UFO's and aliens are on our planet - story.

 

But there is no easy way down this path. You have to get there (or not) on your own steam.

 

Part of that bigger story is that the Black Ops insiders may have some special insight into what the future will look like. If they are right, then moving to some "remote" place like Montana may actually make sense. But I havent bought into that part of the story yet.

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Yes.

I felt that way too, first time I listened,

Then I went back a second time, and began to "get" his story - He claims to be an insider in a huge Black Ops cover-up, which he served as a warrior and as an inventor.

 

In fact, the Dr Pete Peterson interview was the one that opened my mind to the reality of that point of view. In other words, it was an eye owner.

 

After listening to countless hours of testimony, including this one:

U.F.O DISCLOSURE PROJECT -Full Version

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vyVe-6YdUk

 

Eventually, I came to accept that there must be some truth to the UFO's and aliens are on our planet - story.

 

But there is no easy way down this path. You have to get there (or not) on your own steam.

 

Part of that bigger story is that the Black Ops insiders may have some special insight into what the future will look like. If they are right, then moving to some "remote" place like Montana may actually make sense. But I havent bought into that part of the story yet.

 

Okay, I shall have another go. I shall ignore the sycophantic British interviewer who clearly needs a wash and I shall deal, mentally, with Dr. Petersons' rather monotone monologue . . . in my own special way.

 

Sell a flat in HK and go and buy Montana is your best bet. A hedge. No. An actual hedge, like this one.

 

hedge.jpg

 

 

 

 

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Eventually, I came to accept that there must be some truth to the UFO's and aliens are on our planet - story.

Oh we've been here a long long time Dr B ;)

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