Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

Hong Kong Property - Charts & Data

Recommended Posts

Hong Kong Property Charts, Data & Commentary

 

Centaline's Property Index ... http://www.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

The following chart compares the Centaline index (for HK property) with the Hang Seng Index / HSI.

 

hsi.gif

 

Updates: Centaline index : HSI-to-12/2011 : HSI-w/MAs : HSI-wk-4yrs : HSI-D-2yrs

 

I think we may be within a topping region now for the Centaline index, especially if the HSI breaks down below 20,000 and/or within 2011 the HSI fails to exceed its 2010 highs.

 

HK-12 / Henderson Land ... chart

HK-1 / Cheung Kong ... chart

HK-83 / Sino Land ... chart

HK-10 / Hang Lung ... chart / HK Residential & Mainland China Shopping ctrs

HK-688 / China Overseas Land ... chart / Mainland property

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've noticed there hasn't been much activity on the Asiaxpat property forum - not sure what message this gives about property in HK other than volume has gone down significantly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DATA BANK for Hong Kong Property

 

Centaline's Index ... updated

ccli_chart.png

 

Week==== : 35tr : prv : CCLI. : MMLI. : 18wkMA .. before /18

01/06/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 64.98

01/13/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 67.93

01/20/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 68.05

01/27/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 69.13

02/03/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 71.08

02/10/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 70.33

02/17/2008 : 137 : xxx : 73.81 : 71.08 : 63.41 ..

02/24/2008 : 153 : xxx : 73.28 : 70.33 : 64.15

03/02/2008 : 159 : xxx : 73.98 : 71.07 : 64.92

03/09/2008 : 186 : xxx : 73.5E : 70.5E : 65.61

03/16/2008 : 169 : 218 : 73.01 : 69.97 : 66.22

03/23/2008 : 121 : xxx : 72.79 : 69.72 : 66.78

03/30/2008 : 134 : 203 : 72.89 : 70.06 : 67.29

04/06/2008 : 146 : 193 : 73.75 : 70.91 : 67.82

04/13/2008 : 124 : xxx : 71.93 : 69.02 : 68.17 .. 1,227.11

04/20/2008 : 160e: xxx : 72.57 : 69.77 : 68.51 .. 1,233.11

04/27/2008 : 171 : xxx : 71.49 : 68.58 : 68.78 .. 1,238.04

05/04/2008 : 173 : 253 : 71.44 : 68.61 : 69.02 .. 1,242.33 / C.C.

05/11/2008 : 178 : 232 : 71.51 : 68.59 : 69.22 .. 1245.94 / $3,115

05/18/2008 : 150 : xxx : 71.86 : 69.11 : 69.40 .. 1249.20 / $3,085

05/25/2008 : 185 : 209 : 72.67 : 69.87 : 69.57 .. 1252.30 / $3,115

06/01/2008 : 170 : xxx : 72.16 : 69.26 : 69.65 .. 1253.63 / $3,127

06/07/2008 : 183 : 203 : 73.23 : 70.26 : 69.77 .. 1255.84 / $3,295 (! High in CC ?)

06/14/2008 : 171 : 211 : 71.30 : 69.61 : 69.80 .. 1256.32 / $3,154

06/21/2008 : 150e: xxx : 72.62 : 69.39 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,030 (reflecting: 6/16 - 6/22)

06/28/2008 : 130e: xxx : 73.38 : 70.27 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,111

07/05/2008 : 116 : xxx : 72.77 : 69.70 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,240

07/12/2008 : 109 : 262 : 72.38 : 69.41 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,192

07/19/2008 : 104 : 268 : 71.84 : 68.78 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,025

07/26/2008 : 115 : 333 : 71.55 : 68.47 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,324

08/02/2008 : 124 : 268 : 70.81 : 67.59 : 69.xx .. ==== / $3,194 (testing lows again!)

08/09/2008 : 112 : 224 : 70.46 : 67.24 : 69.09 .. 65.05 / $2,870

08/16/2008 : 107 : xxx : 70.49 : 67.31 : 68.99 .. 65.27 / $3,140

08/23/2008 : 104 : 157 : 70.13 : 66.92 : 68.83 .. 65.48 / $3,265

08/30/2008 : 123 : 212 : 69.94 : 66.86 : 68.74 .. 65.70 / $3,097

09/06/2008 : 121 : xxx : 68.93 : 65.93 : 68.59 .. 65.89 / $2,974 (testing again...)

09/15/2008 : 098 : xxx : 68.40 : 65.44 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,070e

09/22/2008 : 083 : xxx : 68.26 : 65.26 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,192

09/29/2008 : 080 : 329 : 67.52 : 64.46 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,160

10/06/2008 : 084 : 391 : 67.44 : 64.61 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,097 : Black Oct. week

10/13/2008 : 104 : xxx : 66.27 : 63.79 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,159

10/20/2008 : 090 : 422 : 64.64 : 62.01 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,925

10/27/2008 : 113 : xxx : 63.40 : 60.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,950e

11/03/2008 : 132 : xxx : 61.61 : 59.09 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,984

11/10/2008 : 157 : xxx : 59.93 : 57.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,642

11/17/2008 : 129 : 465 : 57.43 : 55.41 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,609

11/24/2008 : 102 : 337 : 57.00 : 55.03 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,496

12/01/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.92 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,500e

12/08/2008 : xxx : xxx : 57.15 : 55.19 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,512

12/15/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.71 : 54.77 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,541 (( LOW ))

12/22/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.93 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,670e

12/29/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.78 : 54.89 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,581

(Cal. 2009)

01/05/2009 : 191 : xxx : 57.52 : 55.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,649

01/12/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.51 : 55.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,698

01/19/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.99 : 56.42 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612

01/26/2009 : ??? : 396 : 58.38 : 56.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,626

02/03/2009 : 056 : ??? : 58.53 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612

02/10/2009 : 124 : 072 : 58.35 : 56.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612

02/17/2009 : 152 : 137 : 58.70 : 57.28 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,656

02/24/2009 : 161 : 153 : 58.62 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,545

03/03/2009 : 175 : 159 : 59.45 : 57.78 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,732

03/10/2009 : 157 : 186 : 59.47 : 57.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,660e

03/17/2009 : 184 : 169 : 59.74 : 58.25 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,742

03/24/2009 : 240 : 121 : 59.43 : 57.90 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,540

03/31/2009 : 318 : 134 : 60.20 : 58.71 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,595

==== : Rise from LOW : 6.15%: 7.30% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

 

04/07/2009 : 365 : 146 : 60.10 : 58.48 : xx.xx ... $2,690 / $2,692

04/14/2009 : 327 : 124 : 60.66 : 59.20 : xx.xx ... $2,723 / $2,722

04/21/2009 : 291 : 129 : 61.50 : 60.06 : xx.xx ... $2,763 / $2,695

04/28/2009 : 258 : 171 : 62.83 : 61.29 : xx.xx ... $2,819 / $2,683

05/05/2009 : 157 : 173 : 63.08 : 61.43 : xx.xx ... $2,826 / $2,781

05/12/2009 : 239 : 178 : 64.34 : 62.48 : xx.xx ... $2,874 / $2,634

05/17/2009 : 270 : 150 : 64.30 : 62.56 : xx.xx ... $2,878 / $2,787

05/24/2009 : 242 : 185 : 64.35 : 62.72 : xx.xx ... $2,885 / $2,804

05/31/2009 : 316 : 170 : 65.49 : 63.62 : xx.xx ... $2,926 / $2,944

06/07/2009 : 320 : 183 : 65.00 : 63.18 : xx.xx ... $2,906 / $2,881

06/14/2009 : xxx : xxx : 65.82 : 64.07 : xx.xx ... $2,947 / $2,874

06/21/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.11 : 65.49 : xx.xx ... $3,013 / $2,967

06/28/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.42 : 66.77 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,955

==== : Rise from LOW : 20.6%: 21.9% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

 

07/05/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.59 : 65.59 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,906

07/12/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.46 : 66.52 : xx.xx ... $3,060 / $2,948

07/19/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.62 : 66.73 : xx.xx ... $3,070 / $2,996

07/26/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.71 : 66.89 : xx.xx ... $3,077 / $3,043

08/02/2009 : xxx : xxx : 69.44 : 67.10 : xx.xx ... $3,087 / $3,140

08/09/2009 : xxx : xxx : 69.51 : 67.33 : xx.xx ... $3,097 / $3,088E?

08/16/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.12 : 67.62 : xx.xx ... $3,111 / $3,206 +7.00% in a month!

08/23/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.79 : 68.50 : xx.xx ... $3,151 / $3,084

08/30/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.72 : 68.31 : xx.xx ... $3,142 / $3,311

09/06/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.64 : 70.38 : xx.xx ... $3,237 / $3,250e

09/13/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.06 : 70.07 : xx.xx ... $3,223 / $3,195

09/20/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.18 : 70.05 : xx.xx ... $3,222 / $3,120e

09/27/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.92 : 70.95 : xx.xx ... $3,264 / $3,278

==== : Rise from LOW : 28.5%: 29.5% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

 

WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC

10/04/2009 : 20,375 - 3,140 : 48.60 :: 72.70 : 70.81 ... $3,257 / $3,096

10/11/2009 : 21,499 - 3,226 : 51.75 :: 73.80 : 71.57 ... $3,292 / $3,257

10/18/2009 : 21,930 - 3,258 : 53.55 :: 73.37 : 71.38 ... $3,283 / $3,283

10/25/2009 : 22,590 - 3,307 : 55.30 :: 73.39 : 71.16 ... $3,273 / $3,247

11/01/2009 : 21,753 - 3,245 : 55.80 :: 73.74 : 71.30 ... $3,280 / $3,150 (Dist.$2,150?)

11/08/2009 : 21,830 - 3,250 : 56.30 :: 73.52 : 71.20 ... $3,275 / $3,161

11/15/2009 : 22,554 - 3,304 : 53.95 :: 73.91 : 71.42 ... $3,285 / $3,304

11/22/2009 : 22,456 - 3,297 : 54.20 :: 73.56 : 71.05 ... $3,xxx / $3,304

11/29/2009 : 21,135 - 3,198 : 51.70 :: 72.61 : 70.00 ... $3,220 / $3,157

12/06/2009 : 22,498 - 3,300 : 59.15 :: 73.03 : 70.87 ... $3,260 / $3,110

12/13/2009 : 21,902 - 3,256 : 57.80 :: 72.79 : 70.61 ... $3,248 / $3,293

12/20/2009 : 21,176 - 3,201 : 55.00 :: 73.08 : 70.79 ... $3,256 / $3,200e

12/27/2009 : 21,517 - 3,227 : 57.65 :: 73.23 : 70.95 ... $3,263 / $3,350

Rise from Low 89.7%: 37.7% : 151% :: 29.1%: 29.5% MMI x46 / +31.8%

LOW.......... : 11,345 - 2343 : 23.00 :: 56.71 : 54.77 ... $2,519 / $2,541

 

01/03/2010 : 21,873 - 3,254 : 58.40 :: 74.07 : 71.77 ... $3,301 / $3,275

01/10/2010 : 22,297 - 3,285 : 59.25 :: 74.87 : 72.69 ... $3,344 / $3,261

01/17/2010 : 21,654 - 3,237 : 56.10 :: 75.08 : 72.86 ... $3,352 / $3,424

01/24/2010 : 20,726 - 3,167 : 51.20 :: 76.17 : 74.09 ... $3,408 / $3,283

01/31/2010 : 20,122 - 3,197 : 49.15 :: 76.05 : 73.55 ... $3,383 / $3,215

02/07/2010 : 19,665 - 3,085 : 47.55 :: 76.67 : 74.25 ... $3,416 / $3,342

02/14/2010 : 20,269 - 3,132 : 50.60 :: 77.03 : 74.57 ... $3,430 / $3,234

02/21/2010 : 19,894 - 3,103 : 48.60 :: 77.26 : 74.74 ... $3,438 / $3,249

02/28/2010 : 20,609 - 3,158 : 52.45 :: 77.96 : 75.65 ... $3,480 / $3.303

03/07/2010 : 20,788 - 3,172 : 53.95 :: 77.01 : 74.72 ... $3,437 / $3,561

03/14/2010 : 21,210 - 3,204 : 54.70 :: 77.24 : 74.82 ... $3,442 / $3,267

03/21/2010 : 21,371 - 3,216 : 56.35 :: 78.63 : 76.43 ... $3,515 / $3,376 : $8,003

03/28/2010 : 21,053 - 3,192 : 56.05 :: 78.69 : 76.25 ... $3,508 / $3,442 : $8,010

Rise from Low 85.6%: 36.4% : 144% : 38.8%: 39.2% MMI x46 / +36.6%

 

04/04/2010 : 21,537 - 3,229 : 54.90 :: 78.64 : 76.26 ... $3,508 / $3,460 : $7,900e

04/11/2010 : 22,209 - 3,279 : 55.15 :: 78.48 : 76.11 ... $3,501 / $3,498 : $8,045

04/18/2010 : 21,865 - 3,253 : 53.10 :: 79.39 : 77.16 ... $3,549 / $3,457 : $8,313

04/25/2010 : 21,244 - 3,207 : 50.40 :: 78.77 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,624 : $8,178

05/02/2010 : 21,109 - 3,196 : 49.85 :: 80.68 : 78.20 ... $3,597 / $3,479 : $8,406

05/09/2010 : 19,920 - 3,105 : 47.35 :: 79.86 : 77.42 ... $3,561 / $3,746 : $8,321

05/16/2010 : 20,145 - 3,123 : 46.55 :: 80.06 : 77.55 ... $3,567 / $3,735 : $8,313

05/23/2010 : 19,546 - 3,076 : 43.60 :: 80.32 : 77.67 ... $3,573 / $3,716 : $8,101

05/30/2010 : 19,767 - 3,093 : 46.80 :: 79.16 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,533 : $8,309

06/06/2010 : 19,780 - 3,094 : 46.70 :: 79.48 : 76.88 ... $3,537 / $3,671 : $8,505

06/13/2010 : 19,872 - 3,101 : 46.60 :: 79.68 : 77.08 ... $3,xxx / $3,500 : $8,496

06/20/2010 : 20,287 - X,XXx : 46.20 :: 79.12 : 76.25 ... $3,xxx / $3,599 : $8,314

06/27/2010 : 20,691 - X,XXx : 47.65 :: 80.12 : 77.43 ... $3,xxx / $3,721 : $8,433

Rise from Low xx.x%: 36.4% : 1xx% :

 

07/04/2010 : 19,905 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 80.15 : 77.33 ... $3,xxx / $3,620 : $8,117

07/11/2010 : 20,379 - X,xxx : 47.20 :: 80.90 : 78.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,711 : $8,161

07/18/2010 : 20,250 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 81.18 : 78.65 ... $3,xxx / $3,575 : $8,595

07/25/2010 : 20,815 - X,xxx : 48.65 :: 81.88 : 79.35 ... $3,xxx / $3,777 : $8,541

08/01/2010 : 21,030 - X,xxx : 48.35 :: 82.14 : 79.73 ... $3,xxx / $3,834 : $8,431

08/08/2010 : 21,679 - X,xxx : 49.60 :: 83.51 : 81.26 ... $3,xxx / $3,850e $8,500e

08/15/2010 : 21,072 - X,xxx : 49.90 :: 83.36 : 80.86 ... $3,xxx / $3,757 : $8,320

08/22/2010 : 20,981 - X,xxx : 48.00 :: 83.57 : 81.03 ... $3,xxx / $3,809 : $8,490

08/29/2010 : 20,597 - X,xxx : 47.00 :: 83.61 : 80.87 ... $3,xxx / $3,804 : $8,529

09/05/2010 : 20,972 - X,xxx : 47.65 :: 84.54 : 81.79 ... $3,xxx / $3,856 : $8,299

09/12/2010 : 21,257 - X,xxx : 49.35 :: 84.16 : 81.30 ... $3,xxx / $3,904 : $8,327

09/19/2010 : 21,971 - X,xxx : 50.30 :: 83.99 : 81.09 ... $3,xxx / $3,873 : $8,371

09/26/2010 : 22,119 - X,xxx : 53.40 :: 85.34 : 82.32 ... $3,xxx / $3,949 : $8,622

10/03/2010 : 22,358 - X,xxx : 55.25 :: 84.85 : 81.83 ... $3,xxx / $3,925 : $8,359

10/10/2010 : 22,944 - X,xxx : 55.95 :: 85.09 : 82.25 ... $3,xxx / $3,940 : $8,400E

10/17/2010 : 22,944 - X,xxx : 56.05 :: 85.13 : 82.35 ... $3,xxx / $3,915 : $8,536

10/24/2010 : 23,758 - X,xxx : 57.55 :: 85.62 : 82.88 ... $3,xxx / $3,924 : $8,682

10/31/2010 : 23,096 - X,xxx : 55.05 :: 86.87 : 84.00 ... $3,xxx / $3,955 : $8,870

11/07/2010 : 24,877 - X,xxx : 59.75 :: 87.55 : 84.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,954 : $9,029

11/14/2010 : 24,223 - X,xxx : 59.35 :: 87.41 : 84.70 ... $3,xxx / $4,002 : $9,282

11/21/2010 : 23,606 - X,xxx : 56.85 :: 88.24 : 85.62 ... $3,xxx / $4,012 : $9,225

11/28/2010 : 22,877 - X,xxx : 54.50 :: 88.58 : 86.16 ... $3,xxx / $4,096 : $9,092

12/05/2010 : 23,321 - X,xxx : 54.45 :: 89.41 : 86.75 ... $3,991 / $4,030 : $9,772

12/12/2010 : 23,163 - X,xxx : 53.15 :: 88.27 : 84.99 ... $3,xxx / $3,975 : $9,684

12/19/2010 : 22,715 - X,xxx : 52.50 :: 87.48 : 84.26 ... $3,xxx / $4,008 : $9,134

12/26/2010 : 22,834 - X,xxx : 52,85 :

 

Query: Past CCI Data :: http://202.72.14.23/p/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've noticed there hasn't been much activity on the Asiaxpat property forum - not sure what message this gives about property in HK other than volume has gone down significantly.

 

HK Property Prices seem to be drifting higher on light volume:

 

WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC : CPark-Olympic

10/31/2010 : 23,096 - X,xxx : 55.05 :: 86.87 : 84.00 ... $3,xxx / $3,955 : $8,870

11/07/2010 : 24,877 - X,xxx : 59.75 :: 87.55 : 84.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,954 : $9,029

11/14/2010 : 24,223 - X,xxx : 59.35 :: 87.41 : 84.70 ... $3,xxx / $4,002 : $9,282

11/21/2010 : 23,606 - X,xxx : 56.85 :: 88.24 : 85.62 ... $3,xxx / $4,012 : $9,225

11/28/2010 : 22,877 - X,xxx : 54.50 :: 88.58 : 86.16 ... $3,xxx / $4,096 : $9,092

12/05/2010 : 23,321 - X,xxx : 54.45 :: 89.41 : 86.75 ... $3,xxx / $4,030 : $9,772

12/12/2010 : 23,163 - X,xxx : 53.15

 

 

And it may not take much to take these prices lower.

China's credit-tightening could spill over into HK in 2011.

 

If you look at a chart imcluding three top HK developers ... update

comphk.gif

... it looks as if they are just levitating on light volume, waiting for some news to bring them down.

 

Meantime, prices in some projects that I watch closely seem to be drifting higher, but I am starting to get calls from agents offering my occasional "bargains" - thought they do not seem cheap to me.

 

Park Avenue / Central Park - in Olympic area (Tai Kok Tsui) of Kowloon ... update

pacp.png

 

Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung, N.T. ... update

cctc.png

 

(PA/CP & CC data is in columns above)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've had a couple calls from agents too out of the blue. I think they may have more time on their hands on the thinner volume and thus are working harder and working on 'old' leads...

 

The deal was 4.8 for a CC A flat on lowish floor phase 1.

 

On another note, I noticed the gov't has started to discuss whether to proceed with a massive reclamation project in East and West Tung Chung new town to the tune of 180 Ha. This would, in effect, double the size of the existing town with most area zoned residential.

 

Potential eyesore, noise pollution associated with the works I would think.

 

BTW, what does Sq x 22 and MMIx 46 (mass market index) refer to? I get the rest of the chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BTW, what does Sq x 22 and MMIx 46 (mass market index) refer to? I get the rest of the chart.

 

The "Sq x 22" is a special column for some complex calculations that might only confuse you to explain.

 

"MMIx 46" : that's easier to explain:

+ MMI is the MMIdx (Mass Market Index)

+ Multiply it x 46, and you get a good guess of what the Caribbean Coast average price might be

 

Thus, for last week (12/05/2010) we have:

 

+ MMI : 86.75

+ x 46 : $3,991

 

Compare with:

+ CarC : $4,030

 

By this measure, Caribbean Coast is overvalued by only $40 per sf.

 

That's a remarkably close "guess" in my view.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I used to use the Hang Seng page for property values but that site doesnt seem to work anymore. Does anyone know of an alternative site to value specific properties?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"MMIx 46" : that's easier to explain:

+ MMI is the MMIdx (Mass Market Index)

+ Multiply it x 46, and you get a good guess of what the Caribbean Coast average price might be

 

Thus, for last week (12/05/2010) we have:

 

+ MMI : 86.75

+ x 46 : $3,991

 

Compare with:

+ CarC : $4,030

 

By this measure, Caribbean Coast is overvalued by only $40 per sf.

 

That's a remarkably close "guess" in my view.

 

How did you come up with the value of 46 as a multiple to find fair value for CC? Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I used to use the Hang Seng page for property values but that site doesnt seem to work anymore. Does anyone know of an alternative site to value specific properties?

You could try the HSBC site as it is comprehensive and lets you get valuation for specific sites.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You could try the HSBC site as it is comprehensive and lets you get valuation for specific sites.

 

 

That worked perfectly, thanks for the heads up...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That worked perfectly, thanks for the heads up...

No problem. Hope to see you posting your opinions and insights into HK propety on this thread. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How did you come up with the value of 46 as a multiple to find fair value for CC? Cheers

Two years ago, I worked out what was the "best fit" for the historical data, and I have not needed to change it.

 

What this says is : Caribbean Coast has moved lock-step with the rest of HK's Property prices.

And I think it helps to debunk the regional differences that so many people talk about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Top picks - November 16, 2010

Among developers, our top Buys are Sino Land, Kerry Prop (on CL), SHK Prop, and Hang Lung Prop. We also add Sino Land to Conviction List, as we expect the company to benefit from a series of new HK residential launches next year. Among the major landlords, we continue to see Swire Pacific (0019.HK, Buy, HK$121.40) as the key catch-up name in 2011. We maintain our Sell ratings on Champion REIT and Great Eagle.

Key risks

An abrupt economic downturn, unexpected interest rate hikes, and government policies that affect the longer-term demand/supply balance."

 

Potential new residential launches in 2011

Potential new launches===========: Location== : Units FY11E ASP : Developers

KIL 11146, Hoi Fai Rd., W. Kowloon----- : Tai Kok Tsui : 830 : 11,500 : SHKP

Junction of Hoi Wang Rd, Yan Cheng Rd : Tai Kok Tsui : 638 : 12,000 : Sino Land

Beech St., Ivy St., Pine St., Tai Kok Tsui-- : Tai Kok Tsui : 464 : 08,160 : Sino Land/ URA

 

/source: http://115.238.20.154:8080/report/download...id=314980573492

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bubb et al

 

Interested in any views on HK market. It does appear that cooling measures are now starting to bite - whether this is just taking 5-10% of the froth off the market or is a more significant correction it is hard to tell. Also how long the govt will be prepared to keep measures in place if the market rolls over or just stagnates - no doubt the agents, developers and lenders will be lobbying hard for less regulation.

 

I've had the same tenant for 2.5 years in mid levels and am likely to extend his tenancy for another two years to take it through until early 2013. As a believer in the various studies into the 18 year property cycle I would like to think HK cycle correction in 2008 was the mid cycle correction and we now have 7 years from then into a top in the next 3 or 4 years. We also have a new development being commissioned in Seymour Road in 2012 which can give a boost to prices in the immediate vicinity.

 

Key risk remains interest rates and how quickly they are to rise and whether IR increases will signal the top. I note that Russell Napier of CLSA is bullish about Hang Seng going to 29,000 next year and feels that IR's wont rise and the the stock market wont reverse to correct until US inflation at 4% the 10 year treasury yield is at 5.5% and chinese inflation is approaching 10%. I take this as a proxy for the HK property market as without a major correction you should still have credit growth in HK and China finding its way into the property market. I'm not sure I can see what will lead us into Tom Harrison's two years winners curse phase of rapid rise followed by sharp downturn though although I think its possible that a reversal of the current cooling measures, cutbacks in provision of new capacity, allied to some further credit growth in China combined might lead the market to the final top? Having witnessed the last three tops in the UK - 1972, 1988 and 2007 surely HK must have a final manic phase where prices rise quickly and then crash. The market rise in HK this year pre cooling has been about 15% - in the UK in each of those dates the prices rose 25-30% before rolling over and falling back and the last few years were not preceeded by a mid cycle crash like 2008.

 

Hope I'm calling this correctly as with a geared asset profits come and go pretty quickly even with a stable cashflow but the one thing I've learnt is there are no absolutes or certainties in HK property market.

 

 

Lev

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bubb et al

Interested in any views on HK market. It does appear that cooling measures are now starting to bite - whether this is just taking 5-10% of the froth off the market or is a more significant correction it is hard to tell.

 

Key risk remains interest rates and how quickly they are to rise and whether IR increases will signal the top. I note that Russell Napier of CLSA is bullish about Hang Seng going to 29,000 next year and feels that IR's wont rise ...Hope I'm calling this correctly as with a geared asset profits come and go pretty quickly even with a stable cashflow but the one thing I've learnt is there are no absolutes or certainties in HK property market.

Lev

Lev,

I agree with your points.

A 5-10% drop seems possible without rate rises, but I think there is a real risk of rate rises, and I am less sure than Russell Napier that rates will stay down.

 

My best guess is that rates will rise more than amny expect, and the China stock market may fall, delivering a property price drop of 15-20%, and perhaps more, in HK.

 

I am playing this by holding high cash levels, and buying a few options on stock indices: Puts, Straddles, etc. I believe that too many people are complacent about rates, the stock market, and property values now.

 

If rates stay down, then I may wish that I had held onto some of the properties we sold in 2009-10. Time will tell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought hard about selling in 2010 and was quoted good asking price with or without lease. I keep a cash/liquid asset contingency available should I need to pay some/more of the mortgage off in a hurry with a large hike in IR's - an increase in IR's of 2% I would probably live with without adjusting the debt size. The other option I have is to switch currencies on the mortgage - currently in HK$ to help manage risk. Not sure what I would switch into though?

 

Have dabbled with shorts but timing has to be v. good IMO to protect a large asset position.

 

Nonetheless if the market rose another 15-20% in two years I would take a profit as the risk reward would not look as attractive even if it meant missing a final surge in prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Makes sense.

But we have decided to play it conservatively, and raise cash while the market was rising.

Our last property is on the market, but it is on at a "high" price since we like living in it.

 

A DISCUSSION / From TLB thread on PropGo:

 

MH / Posted at 09:01 AM 22 May 2010

(As originally posted elsewhere):

 

Too many people in HK have bought property thinking that the "new normal" is represented by interest rates of 1-2%, and they will stay there indefinitely. They may have forgotten that low rates came about as a temporary remedy for a global economy in freefall, and those low rates are unlikely to persist much longer IMHO. If such low rates are sustained through the remainder of 2010, I will be surprised.

 

In fact, there are clear signs that rates are beginning to rise already. The only question is: how far will they go, and how fast will they go up. I think it is very likely that the average HK property investor may be in for a rude shock.

== ==

 

RK / Posted at 12:16 AM 09 Jun 2010

I share the same view!

 

Then again there is the Eurozone issues and this could bring another global financial crisis and the interest rate may remain low should the contagion spreads to other parts of Europe. If this happens, the first to panic will be the speculators who will dump their properties. I have seen this first hand in 2008 when the asking price for a 10M apartment was reduced to 8.02M in a matter of 2 weeks.

 

The Eurozone crisis has also affected the HSI and the stock market is not looking very positive. This will in turn will affect the overall property market sentiment and prices are falling in many developments in the last few weeks.

== ==

 

MH / Posted at 07:25 PM 06 Jul 2010

Hermitage is selling well.

 

After pulling the sale when the "new regulations" were announced, Sino has put it back on the market, after Sun Hung Kai's stunning purchase of land at Ho Man Tin.

 

The good results at Hermitage are helping to push up prices in the Olympic area.

 

Is this the "last gasp"? Or another leg up in the bull market?

 

I suppose it will depend on how the stock market fares in the weeks and months ahead. I have to admit I have a bearish view on stocks for the second half, but I expect a July rally first.

 

/more: http://www.propgo.com/hongkong/property/co...amp;discuss=204

= = = = =

 

What happened? Stocks dipped briefly, and then took off, breaking out (before peaking in October)

 

Hang Seng Index / HK1804580 ... update

hsi.gif

 

... Olympic Area properties like Park Avenue followed stocks higher to make new highs:

 

pao.png

 

Will property prices soon correct as stocks did?

 

Update: In Prices released Friday afternoon- we began to see price falls !

 

WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC : ParkAve

11/28/2010 : 22,877 - X,xxx : 54.50 :: 88.58 : 86.16 ... $3,xxx / $4,096 : $9,092

12/05/2010 : 23,321 - X,xxx : 54.45 :: 89.41 : 86.75 ... $3,991 / $4,030 : $9,772

12/12/2010 : 23,163 - X,xxx : 53.15 :: 88.27 : 84.99 ... $3,xxx / $3,975 : $9,684

12/19/2010 : 22,715 - X,xxx : 52.50 ::

 

MMIndx was down about -2.0% !

 

If China stocks, the HSI and developer stocks stay weak, I think it will drag the propety index back to one of those green support lines.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THE FOUR Bullish Drivers for HK property in 2011

 

The Standard ... in an article entitled "Quick on the Uptake", by Kenneth Lee, Jan. 6, 2011.

 

He was quoting Patrick Chow Moon-kit, head of research at Ricacorp:

 

"For 2011, Chow anticipates no projects with more than 1,000 homes will be released on either Hong Kong Island.

 

'The largest development on the Island will be Wong Chuk Hang, at 411 units,' Chow said.

 

'In Kowloon, Hang Lung Properties has a large development in Olympic Station called Long Beach, with around 1,104 units, but they haven't shown any signs of releasing them for sale.

 

On the whole, there are going to be significantly fewer units available in the primary market (this) year."

 

Apart from limited supply, he mentions three other drivers which will help push the HK property market higher:

 

+ Negative real rates, with interest rates below inflation,

 

+ Rising wealth of HK citizens - there's a record amount of money in bank deposits, over $7 trillion. And that compares with only $2 trillion in 1997. (Think about it like this: that amount would buy 1.4 million flats of 1,000sf at $10,000 psf, with only 50% financing. HK is expected to release about 10,000 new flats in 2011. The new flats represent a tidbit by comparison.)

 

+ Continued money flow from mainland China, with some mainlanders wanting to invest "close to home"

 

Predictions:

Patrick Chow Moon-kit, head of research at Ricacorp : 10-15 percent higher

Buggle Lau Ka-fai, Midland : 10-11 percent higher

 

Lau expects transaction volume to drop from 161,000 units in 2010, to maybe 132,000 in 2011.

 

Writer: kenneth.lee@singtaonewscorp.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Multiples of ~10?

I would expect mean prices to be skewed upward but

I would have thought that the median would be closer to the traditional 3:1, 4:1, 5:1 relationship.

== == ==

QUOTE

HK TOP OF HOUSING TREE (ie most expensive) - per DrBubb post:

 

Homes in Hong Kong cost more than 11 times average salaries, making them least affordable among global cities

 

Metro market== : Mult. : Median price : Median Income

Hong Kong------- : 11.4 : HK$2.580 mn : HK$225,400

HK in US$ at 7.77: 11.4 : HK$2.580 mn : HK$225,400

Sydney NSW----- : 9.6 /: A $ 634,300 - : A $ 66,200

Vancouver BC---- : 9.5 /: C $ 602,000- : C $ 63,100

Coff's Harb. NSW : 9.1 / : A $ 369,900- : A $ 40,500

Melbourne, VIC-- : 9.0 / : A $ 569,000- : A $ 63,100

 

Demographia surveyed prices in 325 urban markets in Aus., Can., HK, Ire., NZ, GB, and the US.

 

(But the survey ignores things like: affordable housing in HK: public housing, & Home Ownership Scheme.)

 

More fair might be to compae what proportion of household income is spent on housing- taking into consideration tax rates.

 

"Home prices in Hong Kong soared 20 percent last year, backed by prolonged low rates, the improving economy, and more mainalnd buyers."

 

UBS (Eric Wong Chun-ya) expects HK home prices to surge 33 percent in two years... and rents to increase by 15 percent in the same period. Real interest rates in HK are negative, with mortgage rates near 1% and inflation expected to be 6-7 percent.

UNQUOTE

== == ==

 

Prognosis?

HK property price increases are being sustained by ultralow rates (mortgage rates near 1%), rising incomes and rents, and a lack of other investment alternatives for an increasing wealthy population.

 

What will give first?

Interest rates go up, or growth come down?

 

It is hard to say, but as long as real rates stay negative by so much, prices will be under-pressure.

 

In fact, Property is much more "affordable" in HK than Aus., and Can. because of the ultra-lower rates, low tax rates, and much lower transportation expenses. You can happily live in HK with experiencing traffic jams and high gasoline prices. So those high prices in Aus., and Can. are more vulnerable IMHO.

 

Here's something that I wrote back in early 2008, when property prices were riding high in both the UK and HK, and I was being told that HK prices were less affordable, and more risky than those in UK:

 

POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES between UK and HK property markets

 

+ I start from the notion that property is a cyclical sector, and I want to "catch the sweet spot", and hope to be out before the peak. That doesnt mean that I won't get stuck in after the top (as TTRTR seems to), but at least I will be looking for signs of a peak. ... XXX hasnt shown any cyclical awareness. He is a self-confessed "long term bull on property"- in denial of cycles.

 

+ The fundamentals underlying this boom are different than they were in the UK. Rents are rising fast in HK (up 10-15% per annum or more), while in the UK, rents seemed to be stagnant for years. Also interest rates are falling fast, driven lower by US cuts. At the peak in London, rates had been rising for many months. The Builders are a good bellwether here also. Their sharp moves up attracted me in. They ae now off their highs, but my reading of the charts is that their is yet another surge ahead for HK property developers. If they break down instead, I should redouble my alertness.

 

+ I regard XXX as a speculator who stumbled into property investing, following a societal bandwagon, driven by wildly aggressive lending by banks (like NRK.) He got carried away, and started believing EA hype. Of course, there are many investors here too, but most investors got burned by the 70% drop from 1997 to 2003, and that is within their recent memory. The result is more caution, especially amongst the banks, who ae reluctant to lend more than 70%. All of my loans were in the region of 65% - 70%, and with price appreciation my portfolio is now sitting at near 50% Loan to Value, with no MEW-ing, at least not yet.

 

+ I welcome bear arguments, especially those that are backed up by facts, and figures. I dont want to miss the turn, so bear arguments will help me stay alert, and not miss something. The possible scenario you point to: a surge up, followed by a sharp fall, is possible, and could be triggered by: a re-pegging of the HK dollar, or a turnaround in rates from a falling trend to a rising trend. Do people here see other ways that could happen?

 

Compare charts:

............. UK Property ........................................................... : ......... UK Builder: Taylor Wimpey (TW.L)

homepage.png.aa4tb2.gif.

 

............. HK Property ........................................................... : ......... HK Developer: Henderson (HK:12)

aa0jx7.gif.aa3mw0.gif.

 

Compare and contrast this comment from Midland Realty, with what you might get from UK estate agents:

 

"End-user demand on supply shortage and improved affordability

Pessimists have raised worries of a bubble burst with the local property market despite the presence of negative interest rates and other favourable factors. However, I would like to emphasise that the Hong Kong market has strong and sound fundamentals. There are three major supporting factors:

 

1. Hong Kong is a high savings society. The total personal savings with local banks are estimated at HK$6,000 billion.

2. The indebtedness of local families is low. The overall mortgage-to-income ratio has declined steadily to about 30%.

3. Land Registry records showed a low volume of confirmor-related transactions in 2007, indicating that just 1.6% of home purchases involved short-term speculators during the year.

 

An economic cycle has to go through a number of financial crises, big and small. During a market slump, average investors are often polarised into two major categories – the extreme pessimists prefer to hold cash on hand and on the defensive; the ultra-aggressive ones on the opposite camp are prepared to fight back hard to regain their lost ground. Hong Kong’s property market is characterised by a supply shortage, strong demand from end-users, low level of indebtedness and high savings rate. Buying into Hong Kong property assets appears to be a good bet."

 

/source: http://www.midland.com.hk/eng/market_views/080125.shtml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In your opinion, based on the latest bounce-back of transaction volumes in Hk following the anti speculation measures, would you expect the Government to intervene further? I would agree that an increase in interest rates would bring about a correction, however based on recent US treasury news, this does seem a way off. Unless of course if they adjust the peg!

Since this was posted, there has been talk of more "government action" in the way of putting more LAND on auction,

and property shares and the Hang Seng index have fallen.

 

So maybe the turn is arriving now.

 

Here's my favorite bellwether / predictor for HK property prices:

 

Henderson Land / HK:12 ... update

001nbt.gif

 

A further drop below $50, dragging the MA's down with it, could provide a nice confirmation that the HK property market is turning down

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Time to buy?

 

An article in today's standard warns about the rationale for buying HK property now. The fear of not being on the property ladder may be stemming people to buy but is the time right? How do you know when the time is right. My intuition tells me(and following the market for the past 5 years) that now is not the time to buy.

 

Others comments?

 

Here is the article:

 

Buying a home holds no strong rationale

Monday, February 21, 2011

 

Hong Kong residential property prices are the most expensive in the world.

Those who are buying flats now are using one or more of the following five rationales.

 

First, I need to own a house to live in. Second, I have a secure job, which ensures timely mortgage payments into the future. Third, it is cheaper to buy than rent, thanks to the prevailing low interest rates.

 

Fourth, a home is a solid hedge against hyperinflation. Fifth, I won't have any trouble selling my house as mainlanders remain keen on Hong Kong property.

 

All five rationale are flimsy. Many people in Germany, Sweden and France rent a house their whole life. They are happy as they have more disposable income. Second, unless you work for the government, it is hard to find a very secure job in Hong Kong. Third, many expect the US Federal Reserve to start raising rates by the end of this year.

 

Fourth, global inflation remains relatively low. Food prices are likely to ease later this year when the weather improves and China tightens credit.

 

Fifth, rich mainlanders are smart and they are unlikely to overpay.

 

In 1997, many people bought properties for the right reason. In 2003, many sold for good reasons. Only the future can tell who is right or wrong. Dr Check and/or The Standard bear no responsibility for any decision made based on the views in this column

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be intreresting to see the effect of today's Donald Tsang announcement on HK property shares and property prices. On one level it looks like a green light for higher apartment prices as adjusting land supply is really a mid term solution to controlling prices and other shorter term measures such as CGT seem to have been shied away from. However, I cant help thinking that when a market looks strongly bullish mr market will intervene at some point. Another outcome may be that Donald Tsang will introduce some further cooling measures to catch the market off guard. As for builder shares I expect a further sell off tomorrow but then a recovery - as I think much of the recent sell offs in the like of Cheung Kong and Henderson Land have been in anticipation of the 23 Feb announcement. So I intend to top up on developers and property remains a hold for now particularly with rents chasing prices up atm. 4 more years to the top if the 18 year cycle holds although the way we are going I think we may get there sooner in HK given US interest rates seem to be staying down for a further period yet.

 

Lev

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think alot of people are unhappy with the budget announced - no tax rebates yet a huge account surplus. The gov't action on controlling a bubble in property seems to lack any teeth.

 

I think property stocks will trade with the overall momentum of the Hang Seng Index which at the moment is to the downside with the political uncertainty now in the middle east and knock on effects to oil.

 

So, if property is going to be affected in HK it will be to an outlying Macro event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

INFLATION may be the big concern - but "hands are tied on rates"

I think alot of people are unhappy with the budget announced - no tax rebates yet a huge account surplus. The gov't action on controlling a bubble in property seems to lack any teeth.

HK INTEREST RATES are too low... No wonder property prices go on surging

 

You can borrow 50-60% at about 1% (that's 75 bp over 1 month libor of 25 bp)

 

Why is that too low?

This is an excerpt from a story in the WSJ about John Tsang's budget:

 

"Fighting inflation is our major task this year," Mr Tsang told lawmakers. "As Hong Kong is an externally oriented economy... we cannot use interest rates as a tool to contain inflation."

 

Hong Kong's headline inflation rate was 2.4%, up from 0.5% in 2009, as prices rose amid a stronger economy - growth last year was 6.8% - and a weaker local currency. Mr Tsang says he expects inflation to accelerate to 4.5%, and average around 3.5% from 2012 to 2015.

 

The administration forecasts growth of 4 to 5% this year.

 

== ==

 

Hands tied? Perhaps not.

 

I wonder...

Maybe they could introduce an "interest surcharge" on mortgages - and have the banks collect it, and hold onto it, until a property is sold. This would hit the cash flows - and make buying less attractive than renting.

 

But with rents rising fast, they need to do something about that too. Tax empty flats perhaps?

 

All these crazy ideas come out - because of the fundamental distortion caused by the peg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×