G0ldfinger Posted January 5, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2011 My betting/commodities portfolio is taking the hit right now. I will most likely be able to add more soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 19, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 Housekeeping. I have now built a portfolio as follows (all in USD): Issuer Soc.Gen. Gold.Sachs Soc.Gen. Gold.Sachs Soc.Gen. Soc.Gen. Strike 90.00 110.00 130.00 150.00 200.00 300.00 Av. Price* 20.60 15.24 8.11 7.65 4.18 1.26 Invested 12.91% 24.55% 0.00% 24.66% 13.11% 24.76% (*Price at 1:1 parity!) Which has a net profit profile in Nov. 2016 (depending on the Dec. Brent crude future) as depicted below (all in USD). So, is the price at $80, I shall lose it all. Is the price at $250, I'll have a multiple of seven. In case it goes to $500, I'll pocket a multiple of almost 70. As it stands, breakeven is $149. I will possibly extend this portfolio in the not too distant future. But for now I am quite happy with it - it is a very nice insurance policy for high oil prices. I was asked to post further details on the calls. I can only do that with respect to the ones I have bought. They might not be available in UK or US markets, so sorry for this, you will have to search yourself at the corresponding investment bank desks. Here are links to the calls that I bought (note that this is a mix of European style (SG) and American style (GS) calls): http://www.sg-zertifikate.de/hebelprodukte...////58971/list/ http://www.goldman-sachs.de/isin/detail/XF...t_type,Warrant/ The risks that I have are obvious: mostly counterparty risk (SG and GS are investment bank turds). There is FX risk: I insure high USD oil prices, but what I actually needed to insure are high EUR oil prices. Another risk that bothers me is geographic: I could only find Brent calls for 2016, but no WTI calls. I have bought all these calls on exchanges to ensure that I can sell them to other people than just the issuers if I wanted to (so, regarding liquidity risk, I avoided OTC). Now I only have to wait 6 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2011 Housekeeping. All these calls can be bought on the Frankfurt exchange. Some have othe parities than 1, some are European style, some American style. They all pay a cash EUR equivalent on the due date. SG $90: DE000SG00G06 GS $110: DE000GS15KB9 GS $130: DE000SG00G22 GS $150: DE000GS15KE3 SG $200: DE000SG00G55 GS $200: DE000GS15KG8 SG $300: DE000SG00G89 EDIT: In any case, make sure you buy/consider the right product and check what it does. I accept no responsibility whatsoever for any actions taken upon reading this thread here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 23, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2011 Pinetree's Inwentash interviewed on FSN this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 24, 2011 Report Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pinetree testing key support? PNP.t ... update xx Looks as if it testing key support at about C$3.25. For a long time, I look at them as being a sort of "proxy" with Laramide / LAM.t, a uranium stock. LAM should hold above $2.10, then $1.75, to stay healthy. I still own some, but have lightened up on LAM.t, substantially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 My next purchases will be (depending somewhat on short term market movements): - More Pinetree. Inwentash made a lot of sense in his interview. - Rounding off a few edges in my oil hedge. - Committing to more gold bullion through my SIPP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 1, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2011 I am now up on my recent investments (oil calls, miners, widow makers). The (for now) perfectly timed Brent crude calls have lifted them out of the red. Today or tomorrow, I will possibly triple my Pinetree holdings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 2, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 My next purchases will be (depending somewhat on short term market movements): - More Pinetree. Inwentash made a lot of sense in his interview. - Rounding off a few edges in my oil hedge. - Committing to more gold bullion through my SIPP. Did exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 3, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2011 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf0a73bc-2a44-11...l#ixzz1CsyhLNtd High food prices have been a contributing factor to the recent wave of social unrest across North Africa and the Middle East. In Algeria earlier this month, young rioters chanted “Bring us sugar!” The cost of the sweetener in the wholesale market is at its highest in 30 years. I can't really, since it is tied up in a double-levered ETC, but it is doing fine I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 The volatility in my double-levered sugar is quite breathtaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oddjob Posted February 5, 2011 Report Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hi GF, You might like the following video on Shale Gas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iox39-hW5xA It's made me think twice about getting into Natural Gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 5, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hi GF, You might like the following video on Shale Gas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iox39-hW5xA It's made me think twice about getting into Natural Gas. Very interesting, thanks. This is here would be Howard Kunstler's reply: Think Fracking will save us? http://steveaustinlex.wordpress.com/2010/1...g-will-save-us/ Who to believe? It sounds like a dream come true indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 7, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2011 You might like the following video on Shale Gas: I need to watch "Gasland". Keep in mind, Europe is densely populated. If you mess up the water table here, you'll have many more people complain than in the US or Kanada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oddjob Posted February 7, 2011 Report Share Posted February 7, 2011 I need to watch "Gasland". Keep in mind, Europe is densely populated. If you mess up the water table here, you'll have many more people complain than in the US or Kanada. I saw a show on PBS about this: http://video.pbs.org/video/1452296560/ First off, I must confess that I don't know much about Shale gas and the process of fracking however all of the environmental concerns expressed seem to be about hydraulic fracturing. This is the process of pumping a cocktail of water plus other nasty chemicals into the ground. Much of this cocktail isn't recoverable, hence the reported problem with it getting into the water supply. I'm a little surprised that local councils are willing to give approval to companies to do this. Its sounds irresponsible to be honest. There is a new technology now however which uses liquid petroleum (LPG) in the fracking process. As the LPG converts back to gas, it just joins the other gas in the ground; the ground water near the surface is unaffected. I'm sure I read somewhere that everything pumped into the ground comes back out. It sounds like a cleaner solution. The only reason I know about this is because I researched the company which is patenting the new technology. I don't want to sound like a pumper so I won't mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 14, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 My double-levered widow makers (sugar, natgas) do just that now. Big losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted February 14, 2011 Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 My double-levered widow makers (sugar, natgas) do just that now. Big losses. Massive moves in Nat Gas in the past 2 weeks, im going to keep an eye out for potential purchase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 14, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 Massive moves in Nat Gas in the past 2 weeks, im going to keep an eye out for potential purchase I am holding on, but at least from NatGas I don't expect too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 16, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 It looks to me as if percentage-wise oil usage has peaked in the 1980s, natgas will peak somewhen in the not too distant future, and nuclear might have a long way to grow still. http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/...look_slides.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oddjob Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 Thought this old article might be worth mentioning given that nat gas is currently under $4. Some excerpts below: http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/n...-chesapeake/853 At under $4 per Mcf, only about half the producers can break even, let alone show a decent profit. Unfortunately, unconventional shale gas is more expensive to produce than conventional gas, and only a small fraction of the potential makes economic sense when gas is selling for $3.75 per Mcf. According to global energy advisory firm Tristone Capital Inc., the average cost of production in the top nine North American shale plays is around $4.50 per Mcf. People say that the best time to invest in something is when nobody else is.. So is now the time to buy into Nat Gas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 16, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 People say that the best time to invest in something is when nobody else is.. So is now the time to buy into Nat Gas? Well, that's what I did back in December. So far I have lost over 30% on my levered NatGas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2011 Brent over $108, but the uranium miners are still cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 21, 2011 Report Share Posted February 21, 2011 Brent over $108, but the uranium miners are still cheap. USO ....with the geo-political disruptions in the middle east there is potential for this to escalate so I'm attempting a swing trade ..... I got long USO on Friday What Uranium miners are ones to check out GF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2011 What Uranium miners are ones to check out GF? I might add more to my current holdings (Strathmore, Hathor, Uranium One, Denison) once I have more fiat money to invest. Need to wait for that salary. I might put more into Pinetree too, and then I sort of got interest in Pretium by Bob Quartermain, who recently got interviewed by Puplava. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted February 22, 2011 Report Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nat gas... Does your holding have negative carry? Wouldnt mind finding one i can buy and forget about? (Hopefully not forever though...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted February 22, 2011 Report Share Posted February 22, 2011 I might add more to my current holdings (Strathmore, Hathor, Uranium One, Denison) once I have more fiat money to invest. Need to wait for that salary. I might put more into Pinetree too, and then I sort of got interest in Pretium by Bob Quartermain, who recently got interviewed by Puplava. Just added some more Pinetree today, based on a trendline touch. If she breaks lower from here I'll be out immediately and look to buy around the $3.5 area. Also bought some Mega Uranium (MGA.to) just under the $1 level for the same reason, chart presented a low risk entry. Looking at all the others you mentioned above, they're all in roughly the same position, ready for a break one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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