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Will UK Household size continue to fall?

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Will UK Household size continue to fall?

That would be bullish for UK Property prices

=============================

title added here by DrB

 

Why is it so expensive to buy a house? / 2006

By Ian Pollock

Personal finance reporter, BBC News

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6065330.stm

 

More households

 

Our national obsession is unlikely to fade.

 

We are going to see a big increase in the number of smaller, older, households over the next 10 to 20 years

 

Even more people will want a home in the coming years.

 

The population of the UK is predicted to rise from 60 million in 2005, to 62 million in 2011, and nearly 65 million by 2021.

 

More importantly, the number of households, which is the key determinant of how many homes will be needed, is also going to rise sharply as well.

 

There are currently 22.8 million households in Great Britain.

 

The Department for Communities & Local Government (DCLG) predicts that another million or so will be added in the next five years alone.

 

And by 2016 there will be 25.1 million households in Britain - an increase of 2.3 million in just ten years.

 

A lot of attention has been given to the fact that the country has seen a surge in immigration recently, principally from Eastern Europe.

 

But Professor Michael Ball, of the University of Reading business school, said the rise in household numbers will be driven by a large increase in the number of us who are living alone.

 

"The big driver at the moment is actually the ageing society.

 

_42264590_household_size_203.gif

 

"At the same time general household size is getting smaller, so we are going to see a big increase in the number of smaller, older, households over the next 10 to 20 years," said Professor Ball.

 

The size of the average English household has already fallen steadily from 3.1 in 1961 to 2.29 today.

 

The DCLG predicts that in the next 15 years that will fall even further, to just 2.21.

 

Not enough houses

 

One of the main reasons why house prices have been so buoyant for the last ten years is that the country has simply not been building enough to meet the demand for houses to buy or rent.

 

"We estimate that the number of households has been growing at 200,000 or even more each year in recent years," said Milan Katri, chief economist of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

 

"Yet new building has been running at between 140,000 and 160,000 a year," he added.

 

Thanks to successive government policies, hardly any new council houses have been built for the last 20 years.

 

...continues -

 

LINKS - added

====

UK stats index :: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/the...l_Trends_39.pdf

Link to here :: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-hhsize

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Calculations (2005/6 and 2016):

 

60.0 million in 2005

22.8 million households in Great Britain

========

2.63 Ratio

 

2016 there will be:

63.5 million in 2016*

25.1 million households in Britain

========

2.53 Ratio

 

*The population of the UK is predicted to rise from 60 million in 2005, to 62 million in 2011, and nearly 65 million by 2021

 

Numbers for "English Households" are lower:

"from 3.1 in 1961 to 2.29 today"

_42264590_household_size_203.gif

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Welcome to GEI / GPC !

Thanks for starting this thread

 

More historical data

 

818.gif

 

Between 1971 and 1991 there was a decline in the average size of household in Great Britain, from 2.91 persons to 2.48. It continued to decline though at a slower rate throughout the next decade, falling to 2.32 by 1998. Since then it has remained fairly constant. In 2002 the average number of persons per household was 2.31.

. . .

The proportion of households containing a married or cohabiting couple with dependent children declined from just under one third of all households (31 per cent) in 1979 to just over one fifth (21 per cent) in 2002.

 

/more: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=818

 

COMPARISONS - at 2006

36a.gif

 

Number of 1-person households

36b.gif

 

+ There was an average of 2.3 persons per household in the UK in 2001. This was lower than all but 3 of the 13 selected countries. In Sweden there was an average of 2.9 persons per household, the highest number.

+ In 2001, 29 per cent of UK households were occupied by a single person - the fourth lowest percentage of the selected countries. The country with least percentage of single person households was Italy with 21 per cent. In Norway, which had the highest percentage of single person households, this figure was 40 per cent.

+ Data up to 2006 for households and dwellings in the UK are presented in the national indicator

 

/source: http://www.defra.gov.uk/sustainable/govern...ational/36b.htm

== == ==

 

LONGER TERM - for the UK

 

Housing Stock

1901 : 7.7 million

1911-21 - slow

1951 : 13.8 million

1971 : 18.8 million / hhds: 18.6 mn

2007 : 25.9 million / hhds: 24.4 mn

 

Population

1971 : 54.3 million

2007 : 59.2 million (+9% pa)

 

Working pop.

Q2'98 : 10.0 million

Q2'08 : 11.1 million

 

Wealth, 2007 prices, pg. 78

Year : Res.Bld-(loans) : Pens+ Stocks : Other = Total

1991 : 1,881 -(0,527) : 1,015 + 0,425 : x,xxx = 3,873

2001 : 2,694 -(0,751) : 1,992 + 0,799 : x,xxx = 6,067

2004 : 3,902 -(1,067) : 1,986 + 0,697 : x,xxx = 7,152

2005 : 3,881 -(1,092) : 2,247 + 0,749 : x,xxx = 7,455

2006 : 4,035 -(1,142) : 2,304 + 0,716 : x,xxx = 7,612

2007 : 4,077 -(1,147) : 2,226 + 0,674 : x,xxx = 7,524

 

 

Property Transactions - pg.155

2006 : 1.7 million

2007 : 1.6 million

 

Ownership & Mtgs, 2007 - pg.144

40% - buy with mortgages

31% - owned outright

19% - rented, privately

9% - rented, socials sector

 

pg.144 : http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/the...l_Trends_39.pdf

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Interesting stuff. 'The big driver is (will be) the ageing population'.

 

I suppose divorce also counts for a lot of the decline since the 70's.

 

I'd be interested in seeing the stats on Japan as a guide to the UK's future. I expect single occupancy dwellings have rocketed, and will continue to do so as society ages and generations move in together in order to save money. This is why small flats in the city here will be the ones to buy as investments with the best yields. Same for the UK?

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Interesting stuff. 'The big driver is (will be) the ageing population'.

 

I suppose divorce also counts for a lot of the decline since the 70's.

 

I'd be interested in seeing the stats on Japan as a guide to the UK's future. I expect single occupancy dwellings have rocketed, and will continue to do so as society ages and generations move in together in order to save money. This is why small flats in the city here will be the ones to buy as investments with the best yields. Same for the UK?

Ah.

But they will need to feed themselves.

Austerity may drive more people to live together, sharing space.

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2001 UK CENSUS - statistics

 

New data from Census 2001 (29 April 2001) released today.

 

Some of the key findings are:

 

The average number of people living in a household in England and Wales is 2.36, down from 2.51 in 1991.

29 per cent of households now own two or more cars compared with 24 per cent ten years ago.

One in 25 households in South Bucks owns four or more cars.

In England and Wales 96.1 per cent of houses are occupied, 3.2 per cent vacant and 0.7 per cent second homes or holiday accommodation.

In England 79.9 per cent of households are houses or bungalows and 19.7 per cent flats, maisonettes or apartments while in Wales 88.2 per cent are houses or bungalows and 11.4 per cent flats, maisonettes or apartments.

The average number of rooms per household is 5.34.

More than 1.5 million households are overcrowded in England and Wales.

12 per cent of households are on the first floor or above.

Nearly 41 per cent of households in the Isles of Scilly do not have central heating and 1 per cent of households in London do not have their own toilet or bath.

top

 

Types of premises

 

There are a total of 22,539,000 households in England and Wales. 21,660,000 of these are occupied (20,451,000 in England and 1,209,000 in Wales), 727,000 are vacant (676,000 in England and 51,000 in Wales) and 151,000 are second homes or holiday accommodation (135,000 in England and 16,000 in Wales).

 

Vacancy rates are above average (3.9 per cent or more) in the North West, North East, Wales and Yorkshire & the Humber while in London, South East, East and South West vacancy rates are 2.8 per cent or less.

. . .

Household size

 

The average household size is similar in England and Wales and is 2.36 people. This ranges from 2.31 people per household in the South West to 2.41 in the West Midlands.

 

The variation of household size is greatest in London ranging from 1.58 in the City of London to 2.64 in Newham. This is the highest average number of people in a household across England and Wales. Slough has the second highest at 2.63 people.

 

The average number of rooms per household is 5.33 in England and 5.59 in Wales. Rooms include living rooms, bedroom, kitchens, utility rooms and studies but not bathrooms or storage rooms.

 

/source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/pr...ies/housing.asp

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AMERICAN DREAM - was: Bigger was Better in the Property Boom - this old article shows

 

The "Big House" is all about the American lifestyle: how we live, what we drive,

and how we fail to appreciate the finite nature of land and energy resources.

"Who needs 15,000-square-foot houses?"

(The stupidity of this waste makes my blood warm up- Who gave them "the right" to over-consume to that extent?.)

 

Behind the Ever-Expanding American Dream House

 

by Margot Adler .. July 4, 2006

 

frisby200.jpg

Margot Adler, NPR Michael Frisby stands outside the door to his 11,000-square-foot home in Fulton, Md.

How does Frisby's house stack up to other McMansions? Scroll down to find out.

 

The house in Fulton, Md., between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, is 11,000 square feet and sits three stories high on three-and-a-half acres. Its amenities include an English garden, a wine cellar, a master bedroom larger than many apartments, a spiral staircase, a music room, a gym, a sauna, a steam room, and business office.

 

And then there's "the room:" a major entertainment center with a 10-foot-wide screen for movies, top-of-the-line projection equipment, a bar and huge leather lounge chairs.

 

"I believe that you can live out your fantasy," Frisby says. "That is what I'm doing. That is what my wife is doing. That is what other people are doing when they build or buy a house like this."

 

Frisby's house is big, but it's not alone.

 

from1950s.jpg..newhome.jpg

 

The average American house size has more than doubled since the 1950s; it now stands at 2,349 square feet. Whether it's a McMansion in a wealthy neighborhood, or a bigger, cheaper house in the exurbs, the move toward ever large homes has been accelerating for years.

 

Consider: Back in the 1950s and '60s, people thought it was normal for a family to have one bathroom, or for two or three growing boys to share a bedroom. Well-off people summered in tiny beach cottages on Cape Cod or off the coast of California. Now, many of those cottages have been replaced with bigger houses. Six-room apartments in cities like New York or Chicago have been combined, because upper-middle-class people now think a six-room apartment is too small. Is it wealth? Is it greed? Or are there more subtle things going on?

 

/more: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5525283

 

== == ==

 

While houses were getting bigger, Households were shrinking... in a long term trend.

(Taxing the Square footage of living space beyond a median level may make great sense IMHO.)

 

(1)

Article: U.S. Household Size Reaches Record Low .. December 7, 1989

 

The American household has shrunk to its smallest size ever, but the decline is slowing now that Baby Boomers are getting older and starting families, the Census Bureau reported yesterday.

 

"Most of the decline in recent years has been accounted for by drops in the number of children," said Census demographer Steve Rawlings. "You rarely see four-children families anymore. Most, who have children at all, have just one or two."

 

As of last March, U.S. household size was 2.62 on average, a record low that reflects less than half the number of people who lived in a typical household at the time of the Civil War.

 

The new household size figures are included in a study …

/see: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-1227030.html

 

(2)

Average US Household Size Declines to 2.6

 

The number of people living alone in America rose from 17% in 1970 to 27% in 2007, and the average household size declined from 3.1 people in 1970 to 2.6, according the latest 2007 figures recently released by the US Census Bureau.

 

The new report, “America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2007,” also found that nearly one-fourth of all married-couple families in the US have a stay-at-home mother, and that stay-at-home moms are more likely to be younger, Hispanic and foreign-born than mothers in the labor force.

 

Additional findings about stay-at-home mothers:

 

■Stay-at-home moms were younger than other mothers - 44% were under age 35, compared with 38% of mothers in the labor force.

■More than one-quarter (27%) of stay-at-home mothers were Hispanic, compared with 16% of mothers in the labor force.

■Stay-at-home mothers were less likely than mothers in the labor force to be non-Hispanic White (60% of stay-at-home moms compared with 69% in the labor force) or Black (4% compared with 9%).

■About one third (34%) of stay-at-home mothers were foreign-born, while less than one-fifth (19%) of the other mothers were foreign-born.

■A higher percentage of the stay-at-home mothers had an infant in the household (28%), compared with 21% of other mothers.

■57% stay-at-home mothers had a preschool age child (under 5), compared with 43% of mothers in the labor force.

■While 19% of the stay-at-home mothers had less than a high school degree, the same was true for only 8% of mothers who worked.

■32% of the stay-at-home mothers had at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 38% of the other mothers.

 

/more: http://www.marketingcharts.com/topics/demo...es-to-26-10679/

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MAKING SENSE of the Homeowning & Mortgage Statistics

 

LONGER TERM - for the UK

Housing Stock

2007 : 25.9 million / hhds: 24.4 mn

Population

2007 : 59.2 million (+9% pa)

Working pop.

Q2'08 : 11.1 million

 

Wealth, 2007 prices, pg. 78

Year : Res.Bld-(loans) : Pens+ Stocks : Other = Total

2007 : 4,077 -(1,147) : 2,226 + 0,674 : x,xxx = 7,524

 

Property Transactions - pg.155

2007 : 1.6 million

 

Ownership & Mtgs, 2007 - pg.144

40% - buy with mortgages

31% - owned outright

19% - rented, privately

9% - rented, socials sector

Residential Buildings: Pds. 4,007 bn / 25.9 mn homes = £ 154,710 per home

 

Compare with the H&N-index value : £ 185,000-est (2007 ave) / £ 165,198 (Sept. 2010)

 

Transactions 2007: 1.6mn x £ 154,710 : £ 247.5 bn x 59%* : Mortgages £ 146.0 bn at 100% (?)

Let's assume average LTV is 85%: Mortgages £ 124.1 bn at 85%

 

*40%-buying w/mtgs + 19%-private landlords

== == ==

 

20 Oct 10

 

Gross mortgage lending totalled an estimated £12 billion in September, down 1% from £12.1 billion in August and down 7% from September 2009 (£12.9 billion). This is the lowest September total since 2000 (£10 billion).

 

Gross lending in the third quarter of 2010 was an estimated £37.4 billion, a 9% increase from the second quarter and down 4% from the third quarter of last year.

 

Notes to editors

 

1. The Council of Mortgage Lenders' members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 94% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK. There are 11.4 million mortgages in the UK, with loans worth over £1.2 trillion

 

/more: http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2745

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Ah.

But they will need to feed themselves.

Austerity may drive more people to live together, sharing space.

 

Rising costs (most particularly energy and property taxes) will push many 'empty nesters' to downsize.

 

IMO a key statistic for the UK is occupancy (number of occupants per room) UK has one of the lowest occupancy rates in the world. So there isn't really a shortage of housing space; just an allocation problem.

 

Economics and other social pressures could change this situation very quickly.

 

 

 

 

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Calculations (2005/6 and 2016):

 

60.0 million in 2005

22.8 million households in Great Britain

========

2.63 Ratio

 

2016 there will be:

63.5 million in 2016*

25.1 million households in Britain

========

2.53 Ratio

 

*The population of the UK is predicted to rise from 60 million in 2005, to 62 million in 2011, and nearly 65 million by 2021

 

Numbers for "English Households" are lower:

"from 3.1 in 1961 to 2.29 today"

_42264590_household_size_203.gif

 

More Data - UK Govt forecasts:

 

,,,Great Britain /

Household numbers to 2001- / Household projections 2006-21

 

Year ------- 1981 : 1991 : 2001 / 2006 : 2011 : 2016 : 2021 :

Gr.Britain : 20.18, 22.39, 24.14 / 25.29, 26.20,

,, London : 02.64, 02.84, 03.17 / 03.25, 03.38, 03.52, 03.65,

,, So.East : 02.64, 03.03, 03.35 / 03.57, 03.74, 03.91, 04.06,

,, So.West: 01.64, 01.90, 02.10 / 02.21, 02.32, 02.42, 02.52,

= =

,England : 17.31, 19.21, 20.75, / 21.73, 22.52, 23.31, 24.00,

,Wales....: 01.02, 01.13, 01.19, / 01.24, 01.28, 01.31, 01.34,

,Scotland : 01.85, 02.05, 02.19, / 02.31, 02.41,..,..,

 

/source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nscl.asp?id=7482

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From a UK Housing thread on Main:

 

Housing benifit is going to be phased out in 2013.

 

'The universal credit will see existing out-of-work and in-work entitlements, such as Jobseeker's Allowance, Income Support and Housing Benefit, paid as a single lump sum although it is unclear how many benefits will be included in the new payment.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12486158

 

I expect this will lead to a crash in the btl market. Given the choice some people may chose to share houses or live in cheaper 'bedsit' type accomodation and keep a larger portion of theior incomes. This may lead to many rental houses being split into smaller units.

Great observation !

 

It is obvious when it is pointed out:

The removal of housing benefits should REVERSE the trend of falling household sizes.

 

Instead of building new homes to house parasites (whoops! those on benefits), the UK can just let free choice operate.

Hand people the money, and you will find that more people decide it makes sense to share, and suddenly the number

of houses need in the UK will go down.

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I think the Coalition has wisely observed that:

 

+ The REAL beneficiaries of excessive housing benefits were Private Landlords

+ Give people the money, without strings attached, and they will spend it differently

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MORE from the Nationwide report:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb_2011.pdf

 

Supply versus Household formations*

 

Supply side also needs to respond

Part of the reason for stretched affordability lies on the supply

side of the housing market. The rate of building has not been

sufficient to keep up with the growing number of households

in recent years. Between 1992 and 2000, house building

broadly kept pace with household formation, with 145,000

homes being built in England each year. Between 2004 and

2008 there was a cumulative building shortfall of about

300,000 homes.

 

The pace of building was even more subdued over the past two

years, with the number of completions at around 100,000 a

year in 2009 and 2010. This is providing underlying support to

 

house prices, which is turn, is reducing affordability and

limiting the scope for first time buyers to enter the market.

Where next?

 

Looking forward, the number of first time buyers is only likely

to increase substantially when labour market conditions

strengthen.

 

With the UK economic recovery set to remain fairly modest, the

improvement in employment and wages is likely to be slow

going. This in turn suggests that first time buyers will be slow

to return to the market, further reinforcing our view that the

housing market will remain sluggish through 2011. The most

likely outcome is that wages will outpace house price growth

over many years, gradually improving affordability over time.

 

Over the longer-term, the supply side of the housing market

also needs to respond if affordability is to improve on a

sustained basis – the housing stock needs to grow at least as

fast as the number of households. A near-term loosening of

credit conditions would not solve the problem and could

ultimately prove counterproductive.

 

== == ==

*These comments ignore the fact that the modification of the Housing benefits,

will tend to reduce or even reverse the long term growth in household formations.

 

But that last paragraph is sensible

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