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Well, I sat with my finger on the trigger for a few days (or more accurately with my Iphone updating whilst in the office) and bought BP at 366p at a complete impulse. Their share didnt move much and then I thought about all the reasons why it will drop further.

 

Shortly after they announced £700m investment in Aberdeen, and then today energy stocks have done well. Beginners luck! Im buying it as a dividend base to my portfolio rather than a growth stock. Im thinking its a long term hold, and im feeling like its undervalued relative to certain other commodities so...lets see how badly I timed it...

 

I actually ordered Robbies book - he explains things in laymans terms which is good for a beginner. Shame he looks to be wrapping up the webiste just as I find him. Is there anyone else like him worth following?

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I actually ordered Robbies book - he explains things in laymans terms which is good for a beginner. Shame he looks to be wrapping up the webiste just as I find him. Is there anyone else like him worth following?

 

Don't know of anyone who does a similar website.

 

Looks like he is venturing elsewhere next year, so it might be the end. Mind you, the site is useful in getting interest for his seminars unless he plans to drop them as well. He doesn't really need the money by the look of it.

 

Although as many of you know after 12 years I do want to quit doing these updates sometime soon, I feel though while things are rocky it might be of even more interest to see how I handle the bad times so on that basis I am going to keep going for a while longer! However please do not be shocked if also I suddenly retire. One mad email too many could knock me over the edge. But I think I will see this year out though, and do intend to at least start the next!

 

I've earmarked next year to write a novel (fiction not finance) - that's my number one aim so if the website gets in the way of the time I need it will have to go. Or maybe I should just take a year off. We'll see.

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

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One observation he opens by saying it was one of the hardest months in his 12 years of trading. Personally lost a fair wedge of early year profits from about June onwards, hindsight is great, but I opted to remove second guessing and get out of dodge on these light volumes.

 

Maybe Robbie should have done more of the same, but thats just it, by nature of being a trader(with a published diary), he is somewhat "forced" to trade. August was less taxing for me, just a case of deciding when to be brave and get back in a bit.

 

Sometimes the smaller companies that he buys don't move at all when the main markets are in free fall. I've often wondered how he managed that.

 

He does say this in the latest update.

 

You may remember I run my multi millionaire sister's isa.. as she doesn't care whether she loses it all I experimented by not touching her isa at all in August and leaving things alone.

 

And you know what is interesting? It's only down by a small amount.. she has things like Telecom Plus, Avon Rubber, Devro, Hilton Food, Entertainment One, Coastal Energy in it.

 

So I do wonder to myself... could I have just taken August off and not worried about the volatility at all? Time will tell!

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I actually ordered Robbies book - he explains things in laymans terms which is good for a beginner. Shame he looks to be wrapping up the webiste just as I find him. Is there anyone else like him worth following?

 

Hi Bob, there are a few others out there when I had a bit of a quest looking for the odd worthwhile trading guru, but your comment nails Robbies difference to most. He makes it simple and his readers get it for free. Everything else he does rakes in the the commission as spin offs.

 

One I did find that offered a 15 day free trial was Harry Boxer, he's real good but it just didn't tick all the boxes and for that reason I never subscribed to his few hundred dollars a month live trading and alerts service.

 

B.t.w good luck from me too with your trading.

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Hi Bob, there are a few others out there when I had a bit of a quest looking for the odd worthwhile trading guru, but your comment nails Robbies difference to most. He makes it simple and his readers get it for free. Everything else he does rakes in the the commission as spin offs.

 

One I did find that offered a 15 day free trial was Harry Boxer, he's real good but it just didn't tick all the boxes and for that reason I never subscribed to his few hundred dollars a month live trading and alerts service.

 

B.t.w good luck from me too with your trading.

 

I haven't come across any others, especially dealing in UK based shares, that offer what Burns does. Most of them tend to be US based and concentrating on US markets. They also will usually charge for the more "advanced" or "tips" information. The Naked Trader site is the only one that I have come across where trades are listed free and has survived the test of time. Unfortunately, as he does not update as often these days there are inevitable delays in when he lists his buys and sells, which may lead some to question if they are genuine, as by the time they are published they have often gone up 10%+ already! Not that anyone should follow him blindly as he is quite open on his site that not all trades or size of trades are listed. The main spin off for him from the site would be his seminars, now £550 a pop, and his book sales. He also still does the Utility Warehouse (Telecoms Plus) distribution business and he's stated in the past that most of his income actually comes from this. So, financially he doesn't really need the site, but it would be a shame if he packed it in because it is a good read and you can learn a lot from the simplicity of his approach. I've always liked the fact that he doesn't do economics, follow gurus, or take a doom and gloom approach to things. All of that, often the backbone of many forums these days just gets in the way, he figures there is always money to be made in markets and he has made a ton of it from his strategies despite the bigger picture that many like to focus on.

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Quality companies still keep announcing good results and few are worth a mention. Be interesting to see how these do going forward.

 

Morrisons'

 

People still gotta eat.

 

Record customer numbers boost Morrisons

 

A record number of shoppers delivered better-than-expected first-half profits at Morrisons (MRW), with a investors receiving an increased dividend.

 

Underlying profit for the half year to 31 July rose 8% to £442 million, while total turnover during the period grew 7.4% to £8.7 billion. Pre-tax profit was £449 million, up from £412 million last time.

 

Excluding fuel, like-for-like sales in the first half half of the year, which strip out the impact of sales from new stores, rose by 2.2%.

 

The interim dividend was increased by 158%, (10% on a pro forma basis), to 3.17p, compared to 1.23p last time, reflecting the previously announced rebalancing of interim and final payments.

 

Despite a "continuing backdrop of a challenging consumer and economic environment," Morrisons welcomed a record 11.5 million customers through its doors per week. The supermarket attributed the firmer numbers to its "unbeatable value on fresh food" and its "Price Crunch" campaign.

 

The company opened 16 refurbished former Netto stores in the period and acquired Flower World. It said the integration of the Kiddicare business is proceeding well.

 

"In addition to growing sales and delivering good profit growth, we also made great strides in developing the business for the future," said chief executive Dalton Philips.

 

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/18147/record-customer-numbers-boost-morrisons

 

 

Ashtead

 

This is an interesting one because it supplies the construction industry, but it does with equipment on loan. The construction companies are not keen on buying equipment right now so increasingly they rent it. Ashtead seems to be doing very well out of this.

 

Ashtead is equipped to continue growing

 

Ashtead positively wowed the market yesterday, as the industrial equipment hire company said it expected profits for the full year to be well ahead of analysts' estimates.

 

The shares have fallen by a third in the last three months, largely because of concerns over the impact of the faltering US economy on construction activity. As it turns out this is not quite the problem for Ashtead that it appears to be. The company has highlighted a "structural change" in the US rental market.

 

It has long been the case that during periods of economic difficulty construction companies and the like have preferred to rent rather than buy. However, this time around, even if the US economy starts showing consistent growth, cash is likely to be thin on the ground, particularly as public spending is reined in to deal with the country's huge deficit.

 

The net effect is that companies are likely to switch to renting for the medium, and perhaps long term, rather than committing scarce capital to buying and maintaining their own fleets. Even more so for public bodies, such as US local authorities (and that applies to other countries, too).

 

The proof of the pudding can be seen in the first-quarter figures. Ashtead's profits increased by 184 per cent to £33.8m. At constant exchange rates they more than doubled.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/investment-column-ashtead-is-equipped-to-continue-growing-2350310.html

 

‘Structural shift’ to rentals lifts Ashtead

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/822a63e6-d876-11e0-8f0a-00144feabdc0.html

 

Safestore

 

Perhaps more of a risk going forward, but this one is doing well out of people using storage space more.

 

Safestore upbeat as self storage demand stays

 

Britain's Safestore Holdings dismissed fears about tough economic conditions affecting its business, saying more people are using the self-storage retailer's services even in a downturn.

 

The company, which generates much of its revenue from individuals moving houses, said it expected most of the demand coming from people refurbishing their homes, while modest growth was seen from its business customers.

 

"According to a survey, 78 percent of people were more likely to refurbish than they were likely to move (especially in a tough economy). They will still need self storage facilities," Chief Executive Peter Gowers told Reuters on Wednesday.

 

"We also saw increasing share of business come from children moving in with their parents after university."

 

However, the company said it was likely to see higher levels of vacancies in the next two quarters following strong occupancy growth in the third quarter when sales grew 5.4 percent to 24.1 million pounds ($39.2 million).

 

Overall occupancy level rose 3.8 percentage points to 63.2 percent, while average self storage rental rate for the quarter was 2.9 percent higher at 25.91 pounds per sq ft.

 

"Looking ahead, the fourth quarter is traditionally a weaker quarter for occupancy growth, in part owing to students returning to university," the company, whose peers include Big Yellow and Lok'n Store , said in a statement earlier in the day.

 

Safestore said it continued to perform in line with expectations.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/31/safestore-idUSL4E7JU2V120110831

 

The self-storage craze

 

People are leaving their possessions in self-storage warehouses for longer than ever. But why are people paying to store stuff they rarely use?

 

It's a monument to our acquisitive society - the brightly lit shed on the edge of town offering "storage solutions".

 

Society has always had its hoarders. But in the 21st Century people are farming out their junk to the growing number of self-storage facilities.

 

It begins as a temporary solution. You load up the car with the retired pushchair, an African sculpture you never found room for, old letters, bin bags full of clothes, Betamax tapes and your cherished back issues of National Geographic.

 

Shortly afterwards you're at one or other of the huge hangars offering space for your beloved objects.

 

With summer the busiest time of year to move, many will have recently contemplated a similar scenario.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-14718478

 

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Re GURU's I remember reading a piece of research which showed that newsletter writers /Guru's often hit a purple patch where they are quite successful then things change and they fail to change with it. BM if you are reading Soros then I seem to remember he has a similar example of a early 1980's computer based trader who made money but similary lost money when markets turned and his comment was something like thank goodness the guy gave me what he had left back rather than blowing the lot. I have found this useful to remember over the last few years in terms of not following anyone blindly and remembering that things change.

 

Huffington Post has/had some reasearch on which newsletter writers/guru's produce good returns but the information is hard to find on their website.

 

 

Possibly one very good reason for that! Outside big pharma, loads of these bio tiddlers eat investors cash on the patent this, trial that, jam whichever year we get bought by a big pharma story.

 

Just google the AIM story of Bioprogress/Meldex/CeNeS/Medisys etc and you will understand my point easy enough.

 

 

Sorrry forgot to reply. Yes know the value destruction reasons, which is the reason these are unloved. But still big pharma and baby bio can be compared to the gold majors and small explorer stocks of 10 years ago, the latter have very similar characteristics. Back then gold was very unloved. Given tech progress in all walks of life, it is quite easy to imagine the lean years of research will end. BUT would I invest in baby bio now..... of course not! Big Pharma maybe. Was really justproviding a real life example of a realistic subject to compare to the more fanciful stuff. Sorry better stop right here am clogging uo No6's excellent thread.

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Bought back into Av today got them at £2.90

 

As you know I've been in and out with them several times over the last few weeks, mainly flat trades (very tiny profits) but getting them cheaper each time.

 

While I am (currently) comfortable with the decision, I have been nervous lately (hence jumping in and out), so I'd be grateful for any thoughts.

 

Sorry haven't posted much here, been busy on the main forum defending the forces of truth and integrity :rolleyes: , but have been reading updates here (many thanks to all).

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Aviva...am I reading google finance correctly...do they kick out an 8% divi? They do look to be in a general downtrend...do you know the extent of their exposure to Greek issue?

Yes, although they have dropped from >£4, so the div (if sustained) would be nice.

 

They have always been a good div payer (av about 5%).

 

They have some exposure to EU zone, but not debilitating amounts from what I've seen.

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Yes, although they have dropped from >£4, so the div (if sustained) would be nice.

 

They have always been a good div payer (av about 5%).

 

They have some exposure to EU zone, but not debilitating amounts from what I've seen.

 

There has been no mention of them dropping their dividend and while sometimes a high dividend yield may indicate future problems ahead, Aviva's debt is seen as being manageable. I think it has fallen because of general feelings about the finance and insurance sector. For those interested in dividends it looks a gift right now provided you are prepared to live with the volatility of the actual share price.

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^ Yes, in property the higher the yeild the bigger the risk!

 

Looks like something to tuck inside your ISA and forget about...

 

In other news, looks like I missed a trick with the RBS swing trade...its gone up 9%, I would have exited at 10%.

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Well, I sat with my finger on the trigger for a few days (or more accurately with my Iphone updating whilst in the office) and bought BP at 366p at a complete impulse. Their share didn't move much and then I thought about all the reasons why it will drop further.

 

 

Now 406, this one is looking quite good. Are you swing trading it or longer term position trade? If it's a swing you have a nice profit on this one of more than 10%, so you may want to be looking for signs of a reverse, profit taking by the market, unless you are looking to hold for months.

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^ Yes, in property the higher the yeild the bigger the risk!

 

Looks like something to tuck inside your ISA and forget about...

 

In other news, looks like I missed a trick with the RBS swing trade...its gone up 9%, I would have exited at 10%.

 

Be careful with those banks, you can easily lose 5-10% in a day if the market gets jittery about the flavour of the month gloom spot Europe at the moment.

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China states price for Italian rescue. Will they start buying Western equities?

 

Premier Wen Jiabao said his country and will play its part to "prevent the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis," but warned that China will not sign a blank cheque for states that have failed to carry out full reform.

 

"Countries must first put their own houses in order," he told the World Economic Forum in Dalian.

 

Mr Wen said he had spoken to José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, laying the conditions for Chinese intervention.

 

"I made clear to him that we are confident Europe will overcome its difficulties and make a full recovery. We have on many occasions expressed our readiness to extend a helping hand, and that we are willing to invest more in European countries."

 

"At the same time, we need bold steps to give redirection to China's strategic objective. We believe they should recognise China’s full market economy status," he said, referring to World Trade Organisation rules.

 

================

 

Professor Li said China must stop investing its hard-earned wealth in western debt and switch its incremental holdings into "physical assets", including the equities of major western companies.

 

"China is the most patient investor in the world. Imagine if our $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves had been controlled by George Soros: financial markets would be in much greater chaos," he said.

 

China has accumulated roughly 800bn euros of eurozone bonds over the last decade, mostly from the AAA core such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands. This has been a crucial factor explaining the strength of the euro.

 

================

 

China's sovereign wealth fund -- China Investment Corporation -- has been in talks with Italy but is more interested in buying key industrial and strategic assets.

 

Lou Jiwei, CIC's chief, came under harsh attack in China for losses on US investments after the Lehman crisis. He is unlikely to risk his career a second time by taking a gamble on Italian or Spanish debt.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8761805/China-states-price-for-Italian-rescue.html

 

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Amidst all the doom and gloom, some UK retailers seem to be doing very well. These two are in the homeware, home improvement sector, suggesting that as people stay put they are doing up their homes.

 

Kingfisher Plans Expansion As Profit Beats Expectations

 

--Kingfisher posts 24% rise in adjusted pre-tax profit to GBP439M

 

--Plans 1,230 new jobs in U.K. at Screwfix, B&Q brands

 

--Warns economic uncertainty will hit consumer confidence

 

--But says self-help initiative will allow it to outperform

 

Home improvement retailer Kingfisher PLC (KFG.LN) Thursday said it was stepping up its expansion by creating more than 1,200 jobs in the U.K. and is still looking for acquisitions, after beating market expectations with a 24% increase in first-half profit.

 

The company reported adjusted pre-tax profit of GBP439 million for the six months ended July 30, up from GBP354 million a year earlier, beating the average estimate of 14 analysts for GBP409 million.

 

Investors welcomed the results, making Kingfisher the highest riser on the benchmark FTSE 100 index in early trade. At 0800 GMT, the company's shares traded up 5.2% or 12 pence at 252p.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110915-703362.html

 

Dunelm profit up, raises dividend

 

Homewares retailer Dunelm said it was satisfied with its performance for the year in a tough operating environment for non-food retailers and raised its final dividend by 60 percent.

 

The group, which runs more than 100 mostly out-of-town stores selling items such as kitchenware, lighting, bedding and rugs, reported a 9 percent increase in total revenue, but like-for-like sales fell by less than a percent.

 

"The environment across the year was characterised by new levels of uncertainty, both in consumer behaviour and in the rate of commodity price inflation," the company said in a statement.

 

For the year to July 2, Dunelm reported a 9 percent increase in pretax profit to 83.6 million pounds ($131.6 million) as sales at stores open more than a year grew 8 percent.

 

Revenue for the year was at 538.5 million pounds.

 

Analysts had been expecting a pretax profit of 83.4 million pounds, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/15/dunelm-idUSL3E7KF0RT20110915

 

 

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China states price for Italian rescue. Will they start buying Western equities?

 

Stats around a year old, be interesting to see any change

 

Asset Class / Percentage of Fund

Listed Equities 25.0%

Special Situations 18.9%

Fixed Income 18.0%

Hedge Funds 9.4%

Inflation Protected 8.8%

Cash 8.6%

Private Equity 7.0%

Other Assets 4.3%

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Concerted, coordinated CB action today, short term dollar loans to be thrown to commercial banks.

 

Should buy a small breathing space.

 

Next event, Bernanke’s extraordinary 2 day Fed meet at the end of the month?

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Now 406, this one is looking quite good. Are you swing trading it or longer term position trade? If it's a swing you have a nice profit on this one of more than 10%, so you may want to be looking for signs of a reverse, profit taking by the market, unless you are looking to hold for months.

 

Im thinking longer term hold... maybe 6-12 months...or longer? But you have planted a seed...

 

Im just thinking it looks cheap...

 

RBS on the other hand, that would have just been a swing trade. Too late now.

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Concerted, coordinated CB action today, short term dollar loans to be thrown to commercial banks.

 

Should buy a small breathing space.

 

Next event, Bernanke’s extraordinary 2 day Fed meet at the end of the month?

 

Don't know about you, but I just got the feeling the markets are struggling to climb that wall of fear - tentative rises still.

 

As for that next event, I'm just wondering at what point will Greece blow up?

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Im thinking longer term hold... maybe 6-12 months...or longer? But you have planted a seed...

 

Im just thinking it looks cheap...

 

 

It may be cheap, but that won't stop the price going up and down over the next 6-12 months. As to where it might be in 6-12 months time, the weekly and monthly charts may give you the best answer. If your intention is to swing trade than you will look to catch those swings on a timeframe that would probably range from hourly to daily charts, with the weekly and monthly chart as a reference to the long term trend. It is sometimes difficult to mix the two, after all, why swing trade some and not others?

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Concerted, coordinated CB action today, short term dollar loans to be thrown to commercial banks.

 

Should buy a small breathing space.

 

 

They will then probably come up with something else. This is the way this financial system works. Too many people seem to think that there will be an end game, many of these link it to their own political and economic opinions. Most of the time they get it wrong, but a bit like waiting for a bus they then bet on the next crisis to come along that will prove them right. I can easily imagine that there will be no end game, just more of the same, or some clever plan that will use the twin levers of time and inflation, along side economic and financial restructuring to sort things out.

 

Don't know about you, but I just got the feeling the markets are struggling to climb that wall of fear - tentative rises still.

 

We are heading into that time of year which is usually good for equities, so as long as the market feels the immediate euro zone problems can be put on one side, they may get happy again.

 

As for that next event, I'm just wondering at what point will Greece blow up?

 

May not happen. What they need is a cunning plan, one that stretches things out over many years, but recognizes that Greece will be a basket case for most of that time. The issue is then sidelined, the market will be happy as long as something is seen to be done. It won't necessarily be what many think should be done, but as long as the markets buy into it things could muddle on for years. The EU know they cannot let Greece just go to the wall, if that were to happen, Portugal would be picked on next, then Spain, then Italy, all the way up to France and yes, the UK. There's too much at stake.

 

Greece's experience prior to joining the euro zone was of bouts of devaluation and instability that delivered a poor record for economic growth. Realistic assessments of comparative advantage and the best means of pursuing this are needed to convincingly tackle the outlook for growth.

 

But first, debt must be brought under control: whichever way its examined, the current level is impossible to repay. Interest costs alone (even at low bailout rates) are as much as 7 percent to 8 percent of G.D.P. and further fiscal austerity is rapidly becoming counterproductive, implying that some form of restructuring is essential. Whether this takes the form of a transparent and brutal upfront cut of 50 percent of debt or is a phased in three-year plan of an interest cost holiday and 10 percent per annum debt reduction depends on how creditors prefer to resolve the dilemma of how to bring debt down to manageable proportions of around 70 percent to 80 percent of G.D.P. This would still leave Greece under pressure to move ahead with privatizations, deregulation and improvements in tax take -- and arguably this may be done more effectively within the euro zone than outside.

 

Without fiscal reforms, Greece will never be able to afford a modern government sector and social state, which is important for the future benefit of its citizens and not just to please creditors and other euro zone states.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/05/23/is-there-any-hope-for-greeces-debt-problem/it-could-have-been-worse

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Don't know about you, but I just got the feeling the markets are struggling to climb that wall of fear - tentative rises still.

 

As for that next event, I'm just wondering at what point will Greece blow up?

 

I agree, we are a long way from the end of this and it could go on for years as No.^ points out. (Unless it all comes tumbling down in a rapid collapse).

 

I see only two options for Greece.

 

Default, or default. Just depends how it is done, orderly, or write off, or bail out with right off etc etc.

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We are heading into that time of year which is usually good for equities, so as long as the market feels the immediate euro zone problems can be put on one side, they may get happy again.

 

 

I agree with the above.

 

If the EU talking shop delivers its normal short term fudge so Greece gets its next loan package then mid October is the start of the 3rd quarter reporting season.

This afternoon I calculated the PE ratios of the stocks I follow based on current price and 4 times the second quarter results. Many have a PE of between 5 and 10 so potential to rise as long as the results are not too bad. Also dont think the latest crisis would have had time to work into this quarters results.

 

Having said the above this afternoon I took the opportunity of this weeks bounce to remove some of the leverage to have cash in case Im wrong!

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We are heading into that time of year which is usually good for equities, so as long as the market feels the immediate euro zone problems can be put on one side, they may get happy again.

 

 

Absolutely. Agree with J.D's and Don't panic's points too, Personally though i've got far too much £'s cash sitting on the sidelines because I neither feel comfortable going heavy long or even shorting the fear out there.

 

I'm sure there are many on the sidelines like me.

 

As for Greece I too would hedge my bets to a fudge of sorts, but i'm not confident how the market will react either.

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