No6's Financial Markets Thread

[No6]

If you like a balanced view of the markets this thread might be for you. If you are an out and out bear, doom and gloomer, market hater, trader hater or just into gold or silver, then you probably won't find much of interest here. Hopefully some of the regulars and newcomers that like the UK market and FTSE shares will join me here.

 

 

[drbubb]

You are most welcome to start this thread, No6.

 

I am sure it will be a valuable addition here.

[00timebandit00]

Hiya No6!

 

Looking forward to your thread. It's hard for someone new to form an opinion when faced with extremes.

 

[Newbear]

If you like a balanced view of the markets this thread might be for you. If you are an out and out bear, doom and gloomer, market hater, trader hater or just into gold or silver, then you probably won't find much of interest here. Hopefully some of the regulars and newcomers that like the UK market and FTSE shares will join me here.

 

Thanks Number 6, I welcome the thread - especially a focus on the FTSE.

[No6]

In history, October is often seen as the month of crashes, but I think this tells us as much about our own outlook and psychology as anything else. The link below shows the average monthly gains for the S&P over the last 50 years or so. October comes out ok at an average +0.43% return on the month. Everyone seems to remember the -21.76% in October 1987, but few ever mention the +16.30% in 1974 or +11.06% in 1982. In fact the irony here is that September on average is a worse month at -0.78% return on average - and we have just had the best September in 71 years! That may point to this October seeing some profit taking, but if you are expecting a crash you may be a tad disappointed. Even better for the bulls, November and December are usually the best performing months for shares.

 

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm

 

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/b...-september/255/

[No6]

The article below is a couple of months old, but offers an optimistic lesson in history repeating itself.

 

==================

 

"The No. 1 Reason for Optimism Today

 

Time Magazine summed it up. This quote is long, but please read it closely...

 

The US economy remains almost comatose. The slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Depression. The economy is staggering under many "structural" burdens, as opposed to familiar "cyclical" problems. The structural faults represent once-in-a-lifetime dislocations that will take years to work out. Among them: the job drought; the debt hangover; the banking collapse; the real estate depression; the health care cost explosion and the runaway federal deficit.

 

Does that sound about right? Did Time Magazine manage to cover all the bases? Or did it leave something out?

 

The thing is, this quote is from the September 1992 issue.

 

What happened next? The U.S. economy boomed for 16 years, without a single down year, until 2008.

 

If you ever wanted proof of the old saying "it's always darkest before the dawn," that quote from Time is it.

 

Of course, with 16 straight years of boom, people thought it could never end. Overconfidence and greed set in. Real estate investors, for example, started to believe real estate never went down.

 

Now people believe the opposite... that the bad times will never end. And that buying real estate is a terrible idea.

 

Meanwhile, the earth under your feet is agnostic. It doesn't care if you're optimistic or pessimistic. It has no opinion.

 

People were ridiculously optimistic when they should have been most scared. And right now they are scared. With history as our guide, it's probably a time to be optimistic.

 

We have plenty of reasons for economic optimism..."

 

http://www.dailywealth.com/1454/The-No-1-R...-Optimism-Today

[jerpy]

FTSE 100 Index (^FTSE) Seasonality

 

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of October 25 and a sell date of January 2, investors have benefited from a total return of 60.81% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.

 

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/ftse-100...seasonal-chart/

 

Nice to have you back No6

 

[No6]

FTSE 100 Index (^FTSE) Seasonality

 

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of October 25 and a sell date of January 2, investors have benefited from a total return of 60.81% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.

 

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/ftse-100...seasonal-chart/

 

Nice to have you back No6

 

Thanks. Interesting link. I will post a FTSE chart later today or tomorrow which shows the current clear short term uptrend on the FTSE and where I think the danger level of any pullback is. I think a little sell off is due and would be healthy, but so far the market seems to be pausing for breath a little before deciding what to do next. 5700 on the FTSE seems to be too much of a hurdle to get over without a pullback. Dow is also hovering around a round number at 11,000. S&P a stretch to get to 1200 and same with the Nasdaq to get to 2500. I think the markets need a rest and then see if support holds. All of this should take us into November/December where history suggests the bulls do well. Might take a black swan to to stop that happening again this year.

[No6]

Blinkx, first mentioned on the thread below seems to be maturing well.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....8&hl=blinkx

 

Today's results look quite good.

 

Video-search engine blinkx (BLNX) expects to beat market expectations for the first half after it doubled revenue thanks to increasing numbers of searches and partnerships with the BBC and AccuWeather. The group, which was spun off from software firm Autonomy, said it would report revenue for the six months to end-September of about 27 million dollars (17 million pounds) and operating profit of more than 1 million dollars (0.63 million pounds), beating analysts' predictions of 630,000 dollars (395,406 pounds). "We expect to further accelerate the growth of our business and given our market position remain confident of the outlook," Suranga Chandratillake, founder and chief executive, commented. The shares rose 7.25p to 81.5p.

 

UK-Analyst.com: Monday 11th October 2010

[jerpy]

Dow is also hovering around a round number at 11,000. S&P a stretch to get to 1200 and same with the Nasdaq to get to 2500. I think the markets need a rest and then see if support holds. All of this should take us into November/December where history suggests the bulls do well.

 

Forgive me intruding on your ground but always believed in the Santa rally myself and it often seems to pay off.

 

Anyway speaking of the Dow, found this which although preceeded the market crash of 08, illustrates in general your point on November rallies.

 

...if an individual invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 index from November 1 st to April 30 th every year from 1950 to 2006 – the ‘winter season' – and held cash in their account for the remainder of each year the account would be worth an astonishing $38,700

 

For all the stats on different markets and including black swan events the article came up with a clear conclusion

 

over the longer term the six ‘winter' months will most likely be the most productive period for investors from a total return standpoint. As financial journalist Mark Hulbert points out, the “indicator is thus in the rarefied ranks of those select few market timing systems that truly appear to work.”

 

Of course we all know the big disclaimer on past performance in these ever volatile times, but history suggests any near term fallback will be a good buying opportunity given the tendancy for winter rallies.

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2855.html

 

[No6]

I might be missing something about Ladbrokes, but today's results were quite impressive and it trades on a forward P/E of just 1.2 according to Digital Look. Looks seriously undervalued on these numbers, but the market might be pricing in a consumer turndown in 2011. Forward P/E of 1.2 though looks silly.

 

================

 

Bookmaking group Ladbrokes said net revenue and operating profit (excluding High Rollers) were up 12% and up 128% respectively in the quarter to end-September, including an exceptional recovery in football margin.

 

UK Retail OTC net revenue increased 16%, UK Retail machine gross win rose 10% and eGaming net revenue was up 17%.

 

Richard Glynn, CEO, commented: "Although bolstered by successful latter stages of the World Cup and an easy comparative period, the growth rates achieved in the third quarter give the Board confidence that the Group is on track to meet its full year expectations.

 

"Ladbrokes has a great brand and a strengthened management team determined to drive operational improvements going forward. Though much remains to be done, I am encouraged by the progress we are making across the Group and I look forward to updating the market in February 2011."

 

Group net revenue (excluding High Rollers) for the period was up 12% including the benefit of an exceptional recovery in football margin, £8.3m of gross win from the World Cup and a stronger machine performance.

 

Group operating profit rose from £22.4m in 2009 to £51.1m reflecting the higher net revenue performance and lower operating costs.

 

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=3974463

[No6]

Forgive me intruding on your ground but always believed in the Santa rally myself and it often seems to pay off.

 

Anyway speaking of the Dow, found this which although preceeded the market crash of 08, illustrates in general your point on November rallies.

 

 

 

For all the stats on different markets and including black swan events the article came up with a clear conclusion

 

 

 

Of course we all know the big disclaimer on past performance in these ever volatile times, but history suggests any near term fallback will be a good buying opportunity given the tendancy for winter rallies.

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2855.html

 

I agree. I feel like we will get a santa rally this year, but a little pullback would set it up just right. FTSE has been going up without any pullback since late August.

 

 

Current trend clearly up since early July.

 

Bollinger Bands opening to the upside, but looks weaker than the move in early September.

 

Directional movement undecided.

 

Support at 5400.

[littledavesab]

The thing is, this quote is from the September 1992 issue.

 

What happened next? The U.S. economy boomed for 16 years, without a single down year, until 2008.

 

If you ever wanted proof of the old saying "it's always darkest before the dawn," that quote from Time is it.

 

Of course, with 16 straight years of boom, people thought it could never end. Overconfidence and greed set in. Real estate investors, for example, started to believe real estate never went down.

 

Now people believe the opposite... that the bad times will never end. And that buying real estate is a terrible idea.

 

Meanwhile, the earth under your feet is agnostic. It doesn't care if you're optimistic or pessimistic. It has no opinion.

 

People were ridiculously optimistic when they should have been most scared. And right now they are scared. With history as our guide, it's probably a time to be optimistic.

 

We have plenty of reasons for economic optimism..."

 

http://www.dailywealth.com/1454/The-No-1-R...-Optimism-Today

 

 

Hey No6 a very warm welcome back from me.

 

I remember very well being impressed with the bear arguments post 2001 but the markets still boomed for a good 7+ years. I have occasionally ran your 20/50 moving average charts when worried about the markets and find that these do help. I will watch your threads with interest.

 

One thing that has been worrying/interesting me is the rapid rises in the AIM market which is occurring at the same time as the gold price rising, albeit less rapidly. AIM juniors in non gold related fields do not strike me as the type of stuff that should be rising simultaneously with gold! Am I missing something?

 

Anyway welcome back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[No6]

Hey No6 a very warm welcome back from me.

 

I remember very well being impressed with the bear arguments post 2001 but the markets still boomed for a good 7+ years. I have occasionally ran your 20/50 moving average charts when worried about the markets and find that these do help. I will watch your threads with interest.

 

One thing that has been worrying/interesting me is the rapid rises in the AIM market which is occurring at the same time as the gold price rising, albeit less rapidly. AIM juniors in non gold related fields do not strike me as the type of stuff that should be rising simultaneously with gold! Am I missing something?

 

Anyway welcome back.

 

Thanks.

 

I don't really follow the AIM market or AIM shares because of the often silly spread when you buy or sell and liquidity issues with less market makers. Blinkx mentioned above is one of the few exceptions that I looked at a while back. Hopefully in time it will go to the full market. AIM can be quite volatile though, doing nothing for long periods of time and then shares seem to take off or reverse just as quickly. I tend to prefer the main markets if for nothing else there is usually no problem with liquidity and you are less likely to get ripped off on the spread.

[drbubb]

6, I'd be interested in your comments on Trading Volumes.

 

Here's an article on the subject:

 

The Myth of the Missing Trading Volume

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No matter which information venue one may turn to these days, it’s nearly impossible to miss the discussion about the lack of volume. Many question the legitimacy of any rally that comes with less volume than a preceding decline, and many others question the structure of today’s markets in light of the fact that in each of the last two years, market volume declined over the prior year. I take a slightly different approach. First,I think the decline in volume in equity markets is predominantly a good thing that portends more upside for the stock market, and second, I think different volume metrics provide a much clearer and more important snapshot of the state of our economy than equity market volume.

 

What Does Volume Mean Today?

 

Volume can be viewed through several different lenses. Volume can be stated in terms of quantity of transactions or the gross size of transactions. When people say “volume” it’s often with regard to the quantity of transactions, and in many ways that’s misleading in today’s market environment. Each and everyday, for the most part, Citigroup (NYSE: C) is the most active trading stock in US equity markets, and each and every day, the gross quantity traded in that stock means little of anything for the overall market. It simply doesn’t matter. Yet it still counts in terms of overall market volume.

 

There are two significant factors further complicating an analysis of volume over the course of the last several years: first is the fact that US equity markets have undergone major structural changes, and second is the fact that we just experienced the single biggest shock to our financial system since the Great Depression. Both of these factors significantly and permanently altered the state of volume, and the fact that they happened somewhat in conjunction with each other makes it difficult to gauge how much of the larger effect has come from each.

 

As far as structural changes go, a funny thing happened on the way to global economic meltdown: prop desks who flipped stocks minutes at a time were replaced with computers who flip stocks by the second. Major institutions like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are closing down their prop desks, while their HFT shops continue to rake in the profits. Don’t believe all the rhetoric that this is solely a consequence of the Volcker Rule in the new financial regulations. A lot of that discussion is political grandstanding in the quest for more favorable compromises out of regulators. Prop desks enjoyed a great run in the midst of the epic volatility storm that wreaked havoc on our economy; however, in the storm’s wake, these desks have struggled mightily. In reality, this new transition has as much to do with the fact that proprietary trading takes on more risk and results in lower profits than the high frequency variety in today’s markets. At the end of the day, it’s simply good business to shift to HFT.

 

When Do We Get Volume These Days?

 

Let’s take a look at an SPY monthly chart for a quick visual:

 

 

Take not of WHEN exactly volume reaches its peaks. The larger, more substantial and scarier the decline, the more volume the market sees. That being said, do we really want to see volume confirm rallies? I mean sure we want to see some sort of conviction to the upside, but is equity market volume the correct indicator? There is a clear connection between a surge in volume and a decline in equity markets.

== == == == ==

 

/more: http://wallstcheatsheet.com/tag/stock-market/

[jerpy]

Thanks.

 

I don't really follow the AIM market or AIM shares because of the often silly spread when you buy or sell and liquidity issues with less market makers. Blinkx mentioned above is one of the few exceptions that I looked at a while back. Hopefully in time it will go to the full market. AIM can be quite volatile though, doing nothing for long periods of time and then shares seem to take off or reverse just as quickly. I tend to prefer the main markets if for nothing else there is usually no problem with liquidity and you are less likely to get ripped off on the spread.

 

AIM has to be one of the most loosely regulated (read wild west) of any stock markets around the modern world. If you get a profitable position it seems in most cases it's wise to take it, purely as the share price is so manipulated.

 

Meanwhile see the FTSE made a break for a plunge but being pulled back up again.

 

[No6]

6, I'd be interested in your comments on Trading Volumes.

 

Here's an article on the subject:

 

The Myth of the Missing Trading Volume

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No matter which information venue one may turn to these days, it’s nearly impossible to miss the discussion about the lack of volume. Many question the legitimacy of any rally that comes with less volume than a preceding decline, and many others question the structure of today’s markets in light of the fact that in each of the last two years, market volume declined over the prior year. I take a slightly different approach. First,I think the decline in volume in equity markets is predominantly a good thing that portends more upside for the stock market, and second, I think different volume metrics provide a much clearer and more important snapshot of the state of our economy than equity market volume.

 

What Does Volume Mean Today?

 

Volume can be viewed through several different lenses. Volume can be stated in terms of quantity of transactions or the gross size of transactions. When people say “volume” it’s often with regard to the quantity of transactions, and in many ways that’s misleading in today’s market environment. Each and everyday, for the most part, Citigroup (NYSE: C) is the most active trading stock in US equity markets, and each and every day, the gross quantity traded in that stock means little of anything for the overall market. It simply doesn’t matter. Yet it still counts in terms of overall market volume.

 

There are two significant factors further complicating an analysis of volume over the course of the last several years: first is the fact that US equity markets have undergone major structural changes, and second is the fact that we just experienced the single biggest shock to our financial system since the Great Depression. Both of these factors significantly and permanently altered the state of volume, and the fact that they happened somewhat in conjunction with each other makes it difficult to gauge how much of the larger effect has come from each.

 

As far as structural changes go, a funny thing happened on the way to global economic meltdown: prop desks who flipped stocks minutes at a time were replaced with computers who flip stocks by the second. Major institutions like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are closing down their prop desks, while their HFT shops continue to rake in the profits. Don’t believe all the rhetoric that this is solely a consequence of the Volcker Rule in the new financial regulations. A lot of that discussion is political grandstanding in the quest for more favorable compromises out of regulators. Prop desks enjoyed a great run in the midst of the epic volatility storm that wreaked havoc on our economy; however, in the storm’s wake, these desks have struggled mightily. In reality, this new transition has as much to do with the fact that proprietary trading takes on more risk and results in lower profits than the high frequency variety in today’s markets. At the end of the day, it’s simply good business to shift to HFT.

 

When Do We Get Volume These Days?

 

Let’s take a look at an SPY monthly chart for a quick visual:

 

 

Take not of WHEN exactly volume reaches its peaks. The larger, more substantial and scarier the decline, the more volume the market sees. That being said, do we really want to see volume confirm rallies? I mean sure we want to see some sort of conviction to the upside, but is equity market volume the correct indicator? There is a clear connection between a surge in volume and a decline in equity markets.

== == == == ==

 

/more: http://wallstcheatsheet.com/tag/stock-market/

 

I don't really use volume that much although I like to see more buyers than sellers when I'm interested in buying a share. I will look to see if some of the volume indicators are positive like chaikin money flow, but other than that I only look out for large volume on selling. Much of it is relative, markets in the summer often move on low volume, certainly UK does, there is nothing new in that. Historically it seems to be part of the sell in May, come back in on St Leger Day. Much of it might be myth, but I still hear it said that the big boy traders return around September time. Low volume because the big money movers are on holiday?

 

======================

 

30 Apr 2005

 

"Sell in May, go away, buy again on St Leger's day" is much in the air at the moment as the markets enjoy some traditional spring turmoil.

 

The FTSE 100 has dropped five per cent in the last six weeks to 4801.7 yesterday. The FTSE 250 index of mid-caps has lost nine per cent - including a near 300 point fall this week - to close at 6728.9 yesterday. As for the celebrated Aim index of smaller companies, it has lost 15pc since March.

 

Nobody can be quite sure why markets so frequently drop in late spring/early summer, or when the "sell in May" strategy originated.

 

The first recorded written reference occurs in the Financial Times in 1964. But that is no guarantee that it had not been in wide circulation for some time.

 

Douglas Eaton, who at 88 is thought to be what the old Stock Exchange would call the Father of the House, is still working as a broker at Walker, Cripps, Weddle & Beck.

 

He says he remembers old brokers using the adage when he first worked on the floor of the exchange as a Blue Button, or messenger, in 1934. "It was always sell in May," he says. "I think it came about because that is when so many of those who originate the business in the market start to take their holidays, go to Lord's, and all that sort of thing."

 

What is surprising is that not only is "sell in May" a successful strategy, it is one which is shared across the world. On Wall Street, there is: "Sell in May and buy again on Labor Day" (the first Monday in September, after which the holiday season ends and Ivy League types are supposed to put away their white shoes for the winter).

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2914779...nother-day.html

[No6]

This may well be over optimistic, but the writer has a point.

 

=====================

 

Please Hate The Stock Market

 

The more you hate shares, the cheaper they are for the rest of us.

 

We hope you hate shares. We really do.

 

We hope that 8% unemployment, a shaky housing market, and the threat of a double-dip recession makes you never want to invest in the stock market again.

 

When you think of investing abroad, we hope the sovereign debt crisis worries you, and that Chinese corporate governance makes you more worried than you've been in the decades past.

 

In fact, considering the massive vault of economic and political woes worldwide, maybe you should just sell all your stocks and call it a day.

 

We'll be sitting at different tables

 

When it's time to choose our seat assignments, one thing is for sure, and it's that we will be sitting at different investing tables. We'll be the guys loving shares, and you'll be the ones parked in cash and bonds. And that's fine with us.

 

Because it's times like these, when there is no shortage of bad news or global uncertainty, that a contrarian investor can prove his or her prowess in the market.

 

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2010/...fwflwlnk0000001

 

=========================

 

I suppose some might be sitting in gold and silver and that's no bad thing either.

[Rosco]

I think that fwd p/e must be wrong. Current p/e is ~ 7 on an EPS of 20, so unless they are forecast to increase EPS to 117 I think theres a mistake?

 

 

 

 

I might be missing something about Ladbrokes, but today's results were quite impressive and it trades on a forward P/E of just 1.2 according to Digital Look. Looks seriously undervalued on these numbers, but the market might be pricing in a consumer turndown in 2011. Forward P/E of 1.2 though looks silly.

 

================

 

Bookmaking group Ladbrokes said net revenue and operating profit (excluding High Rollers) were up 12% and up 128% respectively in the quarter to end-September, including an exceptional recovery in football margin.

 

UK Retail OTC net revenue increased 16%, UK Retail machine gross win rose 10% and eGaming net revenue was up 17%.

 

Richard Glynn, CEO, commented: "Although bolstered by successful latter stages of the World Cup and an easy comparative period, the growth rates achieved in the third quarter give the Board confidence that the Group is on track to meet its full year expectations.

 

"Ladbrokes has a great brand and a strengthened management team determined to drive operational improvements going forward. Though much remains to be done, I am encouraged by the progress we are making across the Group and I look forward to updating the market in February 2011."

 

Group net revenue (excluding High Rollers) for the period was up 12% including the benefit of an exceptional recovery in football margin, £8.3m of gross win from the World Cup and a stronger machine performance.

 

Group operating profit rose from £22.4m in 2009 to £51.1m reflecting the higher net revenue performance and lower operating costs.

 

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=3974463

 

[No6]

I think that fwd p/e must be wrong. Current p/e is ~ 7 on an EPS of 20, so unless they are forecast to increase EPS to 117 I think theres a mistake?

 

I think it's a case of always question the numbers.

 

Digital Look have a forward P/E now of 1.3, but EPS of 411.7% which is a stretch.

 

http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia...=&csi=10046

 

Investors Chronical have a current P/E of 3.29, EPS 42.85.

 

http://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/co...y.asp?s=LAD:LSE

 

Ladbrokes EPS last 5 years from Digital look -33% -19% 115% 39% 4%.

 

So, they are capable of hitting the 100+ EPS. Last time they did that was in 2007 and the P/E was 6.9

 

Lots of comments here.

 

===================

 

11.10.10 :-0.9, (141.1) Ladbrokes 3Q update shows a good performance even against easy comparatives, says a trader. Says UK retail revenues have benefited from strong football margins, while the online revenue is respectable. Notes management is confident of meeting FY expectations and driving further operational improvements. Given the strong performance, consensus is unlikely to come down for '11 at this stage, says the trader. Says the stock is trading on 9.7x consensus '10 earnings, which is inexpensive if '11 does not demonstrate 'structural' flaws.

11-10-10 11.10.10 :-0.9, (141.1) Ladbrokes 3Q interim management statement indicates that its performance is on track to meet full-year expectations says Execution Noble. Says the company reveals a fair set of numbers, in line with expectations and against weak comparatives. Is looking for further clarity on future strategy at the company's conference call. Keeps at sell.

11-10-10 11.10.10 :-0.9, (141.1) Ladbrokes continues to close the gap with its rivals in the gaming machine business in the first half, notes Shore Capital. The brokerage reports 1H growth of 10%, compared with 3% growth in 1H last year. Still, Ladbrokes needs to conduct a review of its online operations which continue to underperform those of its rivals, says Shore, which maintains its hold recommendation and price target of 138p.

11-10-10 11.10.10 :-0.9, (141.1) Ladbrokes third-quarter performance is helped by easy year-on-year comparables which creates a false impression, Numis Securities analyst Ivor Jones says. "Ladbrokes is benefiting from a period of easy comparables which is helping to make the headline numbers look rather better than the underlying reality." Still, Jones said the group's cost-cutting plans will boost its position in the market. "We remain optimistic that there is scope to make Ladbrokes a better business for the eventual cyclical recovery," Jones says. Has a buy rating and 200p target.

11-10-10 11.10.10 :-0.9, (141.1) Ladbrokes' third-quarter performance was supported by favorable results, KBC Peel Hunt analyst Nick Batram says. "The third quarter was always going to look good against a weak 2009 and favorable sports results. Nevertheless, the 9% improvement in weekly machine win was better than we had expected and enables us to move our numbers up to consensus. However, longer-term challenges remain and we see no rush to buy." Hold rating.

 

http://www.sharecrazy.com/share2607share/s...er&epic=LAD

 

[No6]

FTSE up around 70 so far today and the Bollinger band on the daily chart looks to be opening further to the upside.

[littledavesab]

I still like the gambling sector. thought I saw a PE of 7 in the paper for Ladbrokes

 

Google finance have P/E 3.17

 

Bloomberg have

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LAD:LN

 

Earnings 0.195

Price/Earnings (Trailing) 3.429

Relative P/E 0.203

 

Interestingly the Motley Fool discussion boards have nothing to say on Lad. Surprising really as it is the kind of discount paying stock they like over there.

 

Lad..Broke..s good name for a bookie!

 

 

[No6]

I still like the gambling sector. thought I saw a PE of 7 in the paper for Ladbrokes

 

Google finance have P/E 3.17

 

Bloomberg have

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LAD:LN

 

Earnings 0.195

Price/Earnings (Trailing) 3.429

Relative P/E 0.203

 

Interestingly the Motley Fool discussion boards have nothing to say on Lad. Surprising really as it is the kind of discount paying stock they like over there.

 

Lad..Broke..s good name for a bookie!

 

The current P/E for Ladbrokes is given at between 6.3 and 7 depending on where you look. The future P/E is the one that seems very low. The only thing that I question about the bookmakers is that they are seen as likely to suffer from a consumer turndown next year. I just think that most gamblers will keep on gambling, how much are they likely to cut back considering that for many, like smoking and drinking it is a form of drug? I don't see Ladbrokes or William Hill going out of business and long term their P/E'S seem cheap to me.

 

As a comparison, IG Index, a spread betting bookie is one of the darlings of the stock market. Currently priced at 546p, P/E 17.6, forecast 15.9 for next year, its share price is up from around 350 in the last 3 months. If you want to get involved in spread betting, then you could do worse than buy this one. I'd suggest waiting for pullback first though.

[drbubb]

I don't really use volume that much although I like to see more buyers than sellers when I'm interested in buying a share. I will look to see if some of the volume indicators are positive like chaikin money flow, but other than that I only look out for large volume on selling. Much of it is relative, markets in the summer often move on low volume, certainly UK does, there is nothing new in that.

Historically, Volume has been a useful indicator.

But over most of 2009-2010, it may have been better to ignore it (until now.)

 

Still, the follow chart bothers me plenty

xx

 

It makes me think there is a big underlying weakness in the recent rally.

[No6]

Historically, Volume has been a useful indicator.

But over most of 2009-2010, it may have been better to ignore it (until now.)

 

Still, the follow chart bothers me plenty

xx

 

It makes me think there is a big underlying weakness in the recent rally.

 

Could be, but the market is entering its favorite time of the year, Santa rally. Showing some strength today which has surprised me.