DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary

[drbubb]

[drbubb]

Addressed to JD:

The low was 67p as I recall... did you change your mind again and buy in at 67p rather than waiting for 50p?

I will respond too...

 

Purely from a chart perspective, I think that Barratt will work its way a bit higher.

 

BDEV.L / Barratt Development ... update

 

[drbubb]

The Slow grind down is still underway

 

To make sense of the Barratt's price move,

I have redrawn the trend lines

 

BDEV.L / Barratt Development ... update

 

 

The "ugly" and destructive wave 3 down may be underway.

[drbubb]

Get Set for a Sharp Drop - This chart suggests !

 

 

The family of moving averages that I use as technical idnicators have served me well over the years. And they are suggesting that the UK Hali-Wide Index is rolling over and may be poised for a sharp fall.

 

Specifically, the Index is now below both the 12mo. and 48mo. MA's and they are also rolling over and should act as resistance. In effect, the MA's may help to "guide" the index in a sharp fall.

 

Indicator : Index--- : 12mo.MA : 48mo.MA

Hali-Wide : £163,373 : 163,626 : 164,263

 

This possibility also fits the fundamental set-up. Olympic hype in London, and the imminent expiry of a stamp duty holiday (for First Time buyers) have helped to buoy the index, holding it up into this spring. But the global economy is showing signs of deterioration again, after the Olympics are over, the important London market may be facing a hangover, dragging London prices and the entire index lower.

 

A logical expectation would be a drop of an amount to similar to the first one, after the 2008 high:

 

====== : First----/-Time- : Second/-Time-

Top--- : £192,490-08/'07 : £169,287-04/'10

change:-£39,013-18mos : -£39,013-??mos

Low--- : £153,477-02/'09 : £130,274-???

 

The great thing about using the MA's is that they will give a clear indication when I am reading the market wrongly. A move above them, especially if it is accompanied by a rise in trabsaction volume, would be a signal that the market is not going to slide in the way I am expecting.

[drbubb]

IG Index UK House Price Index

Jun 12 160.5 to 162.5 (161)

Dec 12 159.2 161.7 (160.45)

Mar 13 158.6 to 161.4 (160)

Interesting.

"The market" sees lower prices too.

 

Even so, if you can sell at/near mid-price, March might be a good short,

albeit it picks up some of the Spring Rally

[drbubb]

THE DOWNSIDE OF DELUSION

"Presumed future wealth" often gets spent - with potentially dire consequences)

 

Sentiment still improving, (albeit from a low base) just as expected.

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/homeowners-confident-house-prices-rise-064606503.html

 

BE CAREFUL what you wish for

 

What would happen if, as so many people are hoping, home prices were to go up dramatically again as they did in the early 2000s? Would such a change really benefit society?

 

People who most ardently desire this are homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages, who took out mortgages at the peak of the boom and now find that their homes are worth less than they owe on them. They would just feel relieved to get out of the red as soon as possible.

 

But should they really be wishing for this, if they were to take into account all the effects and their humane concerns for all people?

 

The property predicament .. By Robert Shiller

 

The idea that rapidly rising home prices are positive is often based on unrealistic expectations

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/1cc90a5c-87a8-11e1-8a47-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1t6RnAgOF

 

(click to see charts)

 

The price increases the last time were brought on by some massively unrealistic expectations. This means that people made costly mistakes, and not just the mistake of a bad investment in homes. People under such delusions and feeling rich may not have taken necessary steps to maintain their human capital, their skills and job readiness, for instance. Their complacency about their presumed future wealth may also have meant that they did not save for the future in other forms. It means that people may have missed other investments that might have provided better for them. It even means that people may not have been supportive of taxes paid for government infrastructure investments that might have better supported the economy.

. . .

Even people who are living with underwater mortgages may not really benefit much from a home price increase. If it is like the last one, the increase may not last for long, and the bubble will burst again before they sell the property.

[drbubb]

Nationwide -0.2% (NSA up again)

Boring

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17923907

"Now more people are making a lifestyle choice not to commit to the financial burden of a mortgage, and to benefit from the flexibility of renting in the long term rather than the short term.

 

"Inevitably, this means that less old stock is coming back onto the market, and the supply-demand balance is being disrupted."

 

Simon Ward, director of the Dorset-based estate agents Mr Green, says: "With many young people still reluctant to take on the responsibility of a mortgage, there is a temptation to talk of a Generation Rent - suffering ever increasing rent, but unwilling or unable to take out a mortgage."

 

A recent report for the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors suggested that home ownership in England has been falling since 2003 and has also fallen in the US, Australia, Austria, Finland and the Irish Republic, among others.

 

If current trends were projected forward, then by 2025 the percentage of home ownership could be below 60% - lower than most other European countries.

 

/source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15287743

[drbubb]

GELDOFF - What Progress!?

 

Organizing charity rock events to promoting property scams.

(Or is he hiding a bearish message in his keynote speech.)

 

 

The "host" is clearly in need of a shave and a better class of shirt.

Perhaps he lost his previous one

 

"When Greece defaults it will become clear Britain is in trouble."

"The poor, as always, will suffer."

"Inside London, it doesn't feel bad. Outside it is sad beyond belief."

"Who is going to rent those houses you own?" (a very good question!)

 

"In Germany, you can get a mega-place for less than a million Euros."

"That's why they're growing at 3.5%, and we are flat-lining."

"Can they compete with us in manufacturing, because housing costs less."

"Rents (in Germany) are capped by the government. People save their money

to spend on other things."

 

"The people who destroyed the economy, pay themselves proposterous bonuses."

"Essentially, these people are unproductive."

(Isnt that like the non-productive "Property Millionaires" who benefit from ultra-low rates?)

 

I think Geldoff is intelligent enough to see the disharmonies in his message.

 

Some of the

in the audience may think he is bullish.

Truly, they deserve the fire-storm headed in their direction.

[drbubb]

People have such distorted memories - Just check the web !

 

Hasn't he been predicting the imminent demise of UK house prices for 10 years now? And for a long time basing the next leg down on Barrat's share price?

10 years on from the birth of sites like HPC and still no crash.

Nonsense!

My Blow-by-blow track record is laid out HERE: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data

... and here: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary

For all to see.

 

If you don't believe me, and you can spare the time,

Go back and listen to the Podcast, recorded 4 April 2009: MP3

http://globaledge.podbean.com/mf/web/djn359/GeiConf3.mp3

Right on the Low, when almost everyone was still Bearish

BACK AT THE LOWS in April 2009,

Few saw that the Turn was already underway.

Here's the old survey from HPC in April 2009:

 

POLL: Speed of UK House price declines (118 member(s) had cast votes in April 2009)

====

My belief about a bounce, or signs of stability, if we see them :

 

[50.00%] : There will be no bounce this year (59 votes )

[38.98%] : What I am seeing, will be nothing but a Spring bounce (46 votes )

[: 5.08%] : The stability could eventually lead to a recovery (6 votes )

[: 2.54%] : This is THE LOW in the cycle (3 votes )

[: 3.39%] : No comment (4 votes )

...I forecast a one year bounce, which was exactly what we got.

Since then, Barratt interpretations have given accurate signals, as you can see here:

 

Do you see a Crash here?

 

I do - a 20% drop in 2 years is a serious matter. And it is not complete yet IMHO.

If you saw it adjusted for inflation, it would be even more clear.

 

 

BTW. How's your forecasting record ???

Seriously, do you know anyone who has called the individual twists and turns of the UK-wide market better?

(No one is perfect: What BDEV and my interpretations of it have not forecast well is: LONDON PROPERTY Prices.)

 

Speaking practically: I moved to Hong Kong, partly to sidestep economic troubles in the UK,

and did better with property investments here than I could have in the UK or London.

[drbubb]

The HaliWide index is very interesting, caught my attention straight away. Is it a fake out or not.

 

What I am seeing is mayor support and demand at these levels suggesting to me at the very least a floor or bottom is in around me. London well where to begin except I don't really see any triggers only public debt getting external attention.

 

I wouldn't be surprised seeing rising prices from here.

You mean this one?

 

The "Hali-Wide" index is the Average of NSA Halifax and NSA Nationwide figures, and therefore less biased by temporary distortions than eother on its own.

 

I think we are in a Triangle now, and chartwise, it could go either way. But my fundamental and cyclical view is that the recent weak rally will so fade, and prices will slide below the 2009 lows, probably before the end of 2013.

 

But I will reconsider my view if BDEV soon shoots up to a new high.

[drbubb]

WRONG at the Top ?

 

HOME OWNERS EXPECT PROPERTY PRICE RISE

 

Home owners are optimistic about the economy with 63 per cent expecting property values to rise

 

July 18,2012 .. Daily Express Reporter

 

HOME owners are optimistic about the economy with 63 per cent expecting property values to rise over the next six months.

 

The latest housing market sentiment survey from website Zoopla.co.uk, found just 18 per cent are predicting a drop in prices.

. . .

Ashley Alexander, managing director of estate agent review website MeetMyAgent.co.uk, said: “For the last year, we’ve had the calm after the storm. The hope is that there will be a flurry of activity in the property market once the Olympic Games are over, particularly as the effects of the Chancellor’s Funding for Lending scheme kicks in, and that this will provide more mortgages and some much-needed momentum.”

 

/more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/333601/Home-owners-expect-property-price-rise

[drbubb]

WANTED: Journalists that understand statistics

 

July 30th, 2012

Author: Dominic Dean aka The Misplaced Economist

 

Read more: http://www.economicvoice.com/wanted-journalists-that-understand-statistics/50031460#ixzz22KbVPVUs

 

EXCERPT

... The lead story in the paper I picked up was ‘House prices on the slide’.

This surprised me, as I think house prices have broadly been going sideways for a few years now, so I read the article with interest. Once again I was left despairing at the state of British journalism.

 

The article referred to the Hometrack house price index, which to start with is not an especially great series. Hometrack, like Nationwide and Halifax, measure house prices at the ‘mortgage approval’ stage, rather than when contracts or exchanged or transactions completed. Their data cover England and Wales, and are based on a survey of just 1,500 estate agents, who are of course one of the most honest and reliable sources of information around. (In contrast, Nationwide and Halifax actually track the loans they approve.) The Hometrack measure has also only been going since 2001 – among the pantheon of house price indices, it is not so much the little brother as the distant cousin. In terms of data sourcing, backrun and sample size, there are reasons to be cautious about taking it literally.

 

What is more, the article actually referred to prices falling by just 0.1% in July 2012. Yes, that’s right – prices fell by a whopping one-thousandth of their value on the month. This was the first fall for seven months.

 

Read more: http://www.economicvoice.com/wanted-journalists-that-understand-statistics/50031460#ixzz22Ka5sWxV

 

LOL. Right.

And if they'd been up by 0.1%, the headline might have been about HOME PRICES RISING.

It shows the British obsession with house prices, though few who right about them,

actually have anything sensible to say.

 

When I examine THIS CHART

 

A post-Olympics rollover looks very likely to me

[drbubb]

Here you go.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/families-are-squeezed-by-rising-prices-and-static-wages-16192306.html

Note they talk about REAL incomes too

Yeah - that;s what I thought.

UK Incomes are NOT KEEPING UP WITH INFLATION:

 

EXCERPT

Families are squeezed by rising prices and static wages

 

"Real disposable incomes across the UK dropped to their lowest levels in nine years in the first quarter of this year, as families were squeezed by high prices and sluggish wage growth.

Taking inflation into account, take-home income dropped by 1% on the quarter to reach £273 a week, the lowest level since 2003, an Office for National Statistics (ONS) study showed."

 

With Real Incomes falling, how can you expect UK home prices to Hold up in Real Terms?

(In other words, you cannot deflate home prices by your inflation measure.)

 

The only thing that has allowed some home prices to rise, is the "trick" of the BofE in bring rates down to ultra-low levels, but even that trick has stopped working, and at some point rates will stabilise, and they will also rise again at some point.

 

This is my fundamental argument for lower UK prices.

 

Another argument relates to Sentiment, and I think that Sentiment will become increasingly Negative after the Olympics.

[drbubb]

Here they are, the "unspun" numbers : -0.6%, Right in line with the official SA report from Halifax,

Albeit the -0.60% is for "Haliwide", the Halifax/Nationwide Average

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2012

J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% :

Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% :

======================================

mom:- 1.68% : - 3.59% : Est.DI :: 147.2% / - 0.81% = n/a = :- 0.81% : - 0.38% : - 0.60% :

 

I NOTE THAT:

======

+ The -0.60% takes the trend back inside the Crash Cruise Speed range (again)

+ -0.60% is NSA, and is for July, which is normally a Seasonal peak month

+ Compares with recent July's NSA: 2011: +0.48% / 2010: +0.35% / 2009: +1.37%

 

Overall, I would say "another Falling sequence has begun!"

Strap on those seat belts, and we will see what we get into the UK winter.

[drbubb]

CAUTION FLAG hoisted for Bears

 

More builders doubling profits

UK housebuilder Bovis Homes has reported a doubling of profit and has increased its dividend

Peak profits maybe?

 

"My friends building firm has just closed down...

So maybe bdev is not such a good indicator DrB"

 

BDEV may not be a good predictor of the prosperity of your friends firm,

but it has worked reasonable well for the UK and London property market

 

BDEV-chart

 

BDEV: 152.20 +3.20

Open: 149.30 / High: 152.60 / Low: 148.40

Volume: 4,457,104

Percent Change: +2.15%

 

HIGH for the year : 153.15 (could be broken this week)

 

At the moment, BDEV is threatening to breakout to the Upside,

and so is not supporting my notion of a post-Olympics house price slide.

 

Bears should be careful !

If volume stays above 3mn shares, and BDEV pushes above 153P,

I will have to publish a post headlined: Crash postponed ?

[drbubb]

The bubble locked a generation out': Minister admits housing crisis as builders profit by targeting affluent South

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2191734/CITY-FOCUS-We-longer-afford-ignore-housing-crisis.html#ixzz24LsxGWRJ

It is a headache for the Government and ministers are only too aware that the NewBuy programme to help first-time buyers get on the housing ladder and the Funding for Lending Scheme aimed at boosting mortgage lending are not enough to kickstart a housing boom.

It’s ridiculously expensive for people to buy houses in this country,’ said Housing Minister Grant Shapps.

‘The housing bubble locked a generation out. I’m in complete agreement there’s a housing crisis.’

. . .

We are very pleased to get ourselves in such a strong position.’ But despite the bullish updates – which have been echoed in recent months by rival builders including Barratt Developments and Taylor Wimpy – experts reckon just 100,000 homes will be built this year.

 

‘We haven’t been building this few houses outside wartime for 100 years,’ said Bovis boss Ritchie.

 

The big problem is mortgages – or the lack of them – and the men in hard hats say they will only build more homes if they can sell them and that means freeing up the mortgage market. It is a view shared by Shapps.

 

‘You can’t solve this by building homes that no one can afford to buy,’ he said. The Government introduced NewBuy last March to protect banks against losses if they offer mortgages to buyers with only a 5 per cent deposit as long as they are buying new-build houses.

 

Dim politicians !

Look at the chart:

 

The problem isn't MORTGAGES - it is that at current levels of LAND PRICES, there is only one easy way to make money...

 

Why take the risk of buildings loads of New homes all across the UK, when you can make better money selling homes branded as London "Prime" in 2nd-tier locations to gullible foreign buyers - who then just rent them out to house-hungry locals. They will keep on buying until they discover their fingers are getting burned.

 

It is time for some SHOCK therapy.

Take The Hit that should have been taken long ago, as the USA and Ireland have down.

 

ALLOW home prices to Go Down!

That will push land prices lower, and allow surviving Builders to replenish their land banks more cheaply, then they can get back to doing the business they should be doing.

[drbubb]

The Oct. Rightmove rise was GBP 7000 or so in several previous years

 

The Greater London jump this month was even bigger, and took it to a fresh high

 

 

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2012

J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% :

F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 : +0.16% :145.1% :

M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 : +1.60% :145.0% :

A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 : +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% :

M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 : - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% :

J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% :

Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% :

A : : 236,260 : 454,875 : 150,173 : - 0.96% / 164,729 = n/a = 160,256 160,200 : £162,465 : - 0.64% : 145.4% :

S : : 234,858 : 456,237 : == n/a = : -- n/a -- / 163,964 = n/a = 159,486 160,437 : £162,201 : - 0.16% : 144.8% :

O : : 243,168 : 478,071 : == n/a = : -- n/a -- /

=========================================

mom:+3.54% : +4.79 % : Est. DI : : 149.9% / +0.??% = n/a = :- 0.48% : +0.15% : - 0.16% :

 

Up there with Barratt / BDEV .. update

 

 

[Roddy]

Surely the key issue is this:

(1) Govt finances are a disaster. The choices are deflation / austerity which leads to an implosion of the banking system or inflation. As the first choice is politically unacceptable the politicians will go for the second

(2) However regulatory changes for banks etc mean that printing money is not creating enough (/any) inflation of the right type. (Velocity of money is collapsing)

(3) At some point credit availability / velocity will return

(4) The average guy in the street thinks that housing will track inflation - in the long run it roughly does (can anyone confirm this?) However high leverage makes housing sensitive to interest rates. Is the big issue between Germany and the UK the level of leverage in residential housing?

(5) How much of UK house prices are driven by demand and how much by artificial rules (planning permission / green belt) creating artificial limits on supply?

(6) Does telecoms ie the ability to work from home etc plus transport links (eg Crossrail (again!)) reduce the pricing pressure in the centre?

[drbubb]

Surely the key issue is this:

(1) Govt finances are a disaster. The choices are deflation / austerity which leads to an implosion of the banking system or inflation. As the first choice is politically unacceptable the politicians will go for the second

(2) However regulatory changes for banks etc mean that printing money is not creating enough (/any) inflation of the right type. (Velocity of money is collapsing)

(3) At some point credit availability / velocity will return

(4) The average guy in the street thinks that housing will track inflation - in the long run it roughly does (can anyone confirm this?)

However high leverage makes housing sensitive to interest rates. Is the big issue between Germany and the UK the level of leverage in residential housing?

(5) How much of UK house prices are driven by demand and how much by artificial rules (planning permission / green belt) creating artificial limits on supply?

(6) Does telecoms ie the ability to work from home etc plus transport links (eg Crossrail (again!)) reduce the pricing pressure in the centre?

 

I think it will track Net Incomes, more than inflation

 

And in fact, if food and or energy prices are pushed up by Cost-push pressures from abroad,

then people will have LESS MONEY to put into housing

 

I went back and studying inflation rates during Weimar times - and that is exactly what happened:

Food prices had 100X the inflation rate of Rents - I think that is very telling !

[drbubb]

(Duplicate post from DrB's Diary - also look at BDEV: 186.8p down 0.43% yesterday):

 

The A-B-C down in UK Property prices, still needs a C down, before it bottoms

 

Back in 2008, this chart was posted on GEI:

 

 

So what happened ?:

 

Since 2002:

 

 

Since 2009: (up to June 2012: £164,489)

 

Latest: Oct. 2012 : £161,986

[drbubb]

Old Quote: from End May 2009

 

"I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks,

to the Low in 2012-13."

== UNQUOTE ===

/see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30

 

How accurate? What happened from June 2009 ?

 

Answers :

========

 

+ Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond.

 

+ The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond.

 

+ Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak.

 

+ Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap?

[drbubb]

This graph shows the percentage increase in different types of housing between 1992 and 2007, including both new builds and stock that has been converted to a different form of tenure....Housing stock in the UK increased from 23.5 million to 26.6 million homes (a 13.2% increase)

http://www.hnm.org.u...ing-supply.html

Increase in population during same period 5.916% (1992-2007) ((60,986,600-57,580,400)/57,580,400*100)

http://www.google.co...q=uk population

 

Well spotted, Fexx.

That's for the clarification !

A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot.

There is also a possibility that housing demand could SHRINK, if the average household size rises.

That is possible if people begin to economise on their housing costs, instead of trying to borrow their

way into more housing, or talk a generous government into forking over more housing benefits

[drbubb]

The rightmove index is ridiculously volatile.

Best Ignore it.

 

Maybe. Maybe not.

 

Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index

- versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index

 

 

Useless ?

The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London

prices in 2008-2009.

 

Useful ?

Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are

seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them.

[drbubb]

London versus Rest-of-UK prices

 

i'm quite surprised you are all surprised by this/didn't see it coming.

 

there has been a sterling crash, but london as a world city has foreign demand that the rest of the UK doesn't. the rest of the UK must suffer a crash as there are no backstops from foreign demand and also the constant demand to live in london as a premier world city with jobs, art and culture.

 

london and manhattan are, IMO two places which have very robust demand.

 

now whether continued economic weakness and job losses will dampen this is an interesting question, but there is a lot of resilience in these cities.

 

I left the UK in 2006, to move to the emerging Top Global financial centre, where prices rose without a currency boost, so I think I saw the future reasonably clearly. HK has sprinted forward, faster than London or NYC, as I have chronicled in the NyLonKong thread.

 

Speaking of seeing the future: Today, it is the huge arbitrage presented by the difference in prices between London and Rest-of-UK which surprises me. With so many boomers at-or-approaching retirement age, I think it is a very easy prediction that it will narrow hugely in the years to come.

 

Once your income is "fixed" at retirement, and you no longer need access to a high-paying job, it makes great sense to sell a London property, cash a big profit, and move somewhere (in the Rest of UK, or even outside the UK) that might cost only half as much, which also has lower living costs. Those that do NOT do this may find their pensions are inadequate if inflation comes. And in inflationary times, London incomes and fixed pension (even more so) will lag behind incomes. House Price appreciation is very unlikely to keep pace when incomes are weaker than inflation.

 

I think anyone who buys in Greater London at this huge price differential needs to have their head examined for lack-of-sense.

[drbubb]

BARRATT is starting the new year well...

 

BDEV : BDEV : 211.60 +4.00 / +1.93% / BDEV-chart

 

 

Struggling to get through resistance around 200-212p or so