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HAVE We Seen the Top in London Property ?


In response to my post on his thread - and Maybe this Toppy-looking chart ... BDEV




We are at peak London property prices imo. The asking prices bear NO relation to reality at all. It's pure kite-flying.

The people I know buying are very high-income, or friends sharing a mortgage with friends. The normal buyer has no chance at all.


The market is softening already.






Actually, London City Island is selling like hotcakes here.


They sold over 60 flats before the showroom officially opened today.

Only one single 1BR flat was left when I had a look this Friday afternoon.

(the 3% discounts were eliminated for flats below GBP 400k, given the strong demand.)

The style of these highrise flats seems to appeal to Asia buyers - reminds them of home, perhaps


I have started a thread on City Island - so I can look back at this in some months time:


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Those interested in real estate, run out now and take the longest possible mortgage at a FIXED rate in the domestic currency of where the property is located and/or you wealth with rates this low. If you use a cross-currency, then you better pay attention to hedging. This is a hedge so if it ever gets that bad, you can just walk away as did the Romans. DO NOT assume real estate is a store of value. That depends on the taxation level of the local government and the location.



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PANIC SELLING followed Brexit



Chart & Excerpt:


Foreign buyers who purchased within the last 12 months are now likely to already be in negative equity. In terms of euros, Greater London home prices have shown a dismal performance over the last year, with values in the region dropping 11% since May and 17% since November last year. There is a potential upside that European buyers may be attracted back to the market but house prices and sterling will need to stabilise for that to occur.

Housing supply figures from Home.co.uk strongly suggest further price falls are inevitable in the capital, as Greater London vendors overload the property market in the aftermath of June's Brexit vote.

Between July 2015 and July 2016, new listings in London leapt by 27%, compared to a year-on-year rise of 6% the month before.


panic_selling_in_london_as_brexit_fears_Source: Home.co.uk

The Typical Time on Market has also risen sharply in the capital, from 68 days in July to 73 days in August. This is forcing vendors to slash prices further, in a property market that was already in a precarious position through Buy-to-Let taxation changes and warnings about overvaluation.



Barratt Broke down sharply after Brexit... update

(to right after Brexit)



... But has since rallied back to the gap ... update



IS the real Test of the UK market's resilience dead ahead?

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The British property boom is OVER




This chart, from Morgan Stanley, is the final nail in the coffin of Britain's post-2008 crisis property boom. It shows three separate indices that measure major movements in UK house prices. Prime central prices have collapsed, and general market UK house prices are following them down.

. . .

The green line measures prices in "prime central London," the area mostly inside Zone 1 were only the very rich can afford to buy. Normally, you can ignore this measure as it only affects the 1%. Ordinary people cannot afford to live in Mayfair or Chelsea, and the amount of housing inventory in those areas is a tiny fraction of the British market.

That line does broadly follow growth in the market as a whole, however, and right now it looks like the canary in the coal mine. Prime central prices have collapsed, and general market UK house prices are following them down. (We'll explain why later.)


> more: https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/british-property-boom-over-124900378.html



At the same time...

Barratt has rallied back to where it was before Brexit


BDEV / Barratt Developments ... 5-years : Last: 558.50 P




If the boom is truly over, then BDEV may be a great short here

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