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drbubb

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Check out the Halifax drop for September, and compare it with this...

 

 

 

Has Little Professor been banned from HPC yet?

It seems that such a ban should be contemplated after his very misleading posts ruining my threads.

 

And he is Oh-so-wrong on the direction and intensity of price falls.

Surely he deserves a few unfriendly "antibodies" of his own.

 

Sounds like this professor guy is a pretty hot contra-indicator (I'm off to see where he thinks the markets are heading....bye)

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Bruce Banner does a lot of shit stirring. He's the one who got me banned.

 

However, whatever Bruce Banner says you can guarantee the poster called "The Moderators" isn't far behind to back him up all the way.

 

I'm not saying anything. Draw your own conclusions....

Hello everyone just jumped ship from "the other place" having become sick and tired of the moderation general content and manner of some of the posters on that forum including the above mentioned.

It would be batter called the BTR forum as in Bitter Twisted Renters or perhaps Ranters.

 

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Hello everyone just jumped ship from "the other place" having become sick and tired of the moderation general content and manner of some of the posters on that forum including the above mentioned.

It would be batter called the BTR forum as in Bitter Twisted Renters or perhaps Ranters.

welcome, petrodollar.

 

hpc has been taken over by thugs, rabble, and wind-up arts- who seem to want to turn it into the online equivalent

of the most nasty mad max movie:

Remember the movie, Beyond Thunderdome? *

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hQC3nkftrk

 

Perhaps HPC will wind up like that. Fine if you want to witness a little mindless violence, but not healthy to

hang out there everyday. Life's too short to live in a village like that.

 

*actually, I think I spotted several of HPC's regular posters in the audience for that battle.

 

who is the man with the stick? he could be any number of hpc posters

 

he says:

"here'e the truth of it: fighting leads to killing, and killing to warring."

that is the atmosphere that the Mods on that site are encouraging.

 

I don't want that here. Let them have it.

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Did the Dead Cat Bounce end by year end 2009?

Look at the data, Duke: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap

 

If you rate the Halifax SA index, it did top as the new year started:

Mon.: Hali.SA

2010

J. : : 169,777

F : : 166,857

M : : 168,521

... and then down from there!

 

But anyway, you have taken my Oct'09 comment out of its context, and tried to undermine what has been a very useful tool.

Namely: Watching the UK builders, and expecting a top in the property indices within 6-9 months of the time they top.

 

But, who cares what you think here. I have come to expect unreasonable, unfair, and unhelpful comments from the

HPC "antibodies", There's a different culture on this site, and sour grapes, wind-ups, and a nasty attitude are simply

not welcome here. Behave like that, and you will not last long. But I reckon you will be happier remaining on the site

that most of active GEI members have "graduated from."

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Look at the data, Duke: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap

 

If you rate the Halifax SA index, it did top as the new year started:

Mon.: Hali.SA

2010

J. : : 169,777

F : : 166,857

M : : 168,521

... and then down from there!

 

But anyway, you have taken my Oct'09 comment out of its context, and tried to undermine what has been a very useful tool.

Namely: Watching the UK builders, and expecting a top in the property indices within 6-9 months of the time they top.

 

But, who cares what you think here. I have come to expect unreasonable, unfair, and unhelpful comments from the

HPC "antibodies", There's a different culture on this site, and sour grapes, wind-ups, and a nasty attitude are simply

not welcome here. Behave like that, and you will not last long. But I reckon you will be happier remaining on the site

that most of active GEI members have "graduated from."

 

This is somewhat tendentious.

 

The dead cat bounce ended, by one measure, a full 4-6 months after you predicted it would.

 

Thread Posted 28 October 2009 - 12:53 PM

It's nearly over, the Dead Cat Bounce

Property should peak by year end (my forecast)

 

And the Halifax SA index shows as much of a rise as a fall in the months up to September, ie a flat market.

 

Further, the builders shares _fell_ after the recent index announcement (which I dub "Crash Bang Wallop Velocity"), which suggests that it follows rather than leads the market.

 

Can you at least see why people might be sceptical of the efficacy of your heuristic?

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This is somewhat tendentious.

The dead cat bounce ended, by one measure, a full 4-6 months after you predicted it would.

 

 

 

And the Halifax SA index shows as much of a rise as a fall in the months up to September, ie a flat market.

 

Further, the builders shares _fell_ after the recent index announcement (which I dub "Crash Bang Wallop Velocity"), which suggests that it follows rather than leads the market.

 

Can you at least see why people might be sceptical of the efficacy of your heuristic?

I made a forecast in October, that:

+ The market may turn at the end of the year, and/or

+ The Peak should come 6-9 months after the peak in the UK Builders

 

Some measures showed that each of these were correct. Some measures showed only the second was correct.

 

In January, I still thought the the peak was not clearly in, and may take longer.

 

By the standards of the property market, this was a rather good, but a perfect forecast. I am happy with it, and I reckon almost anyone else would be happy with it. As some have said, "Be happy with excellent, since perfection is the enemy of the good."

 

I think anyone who attacks a forecast that was this close to being fully accurate is is either: amazingly petty minded, or is simply looking to stir up trouble. Which are you?

 

(I believe many in HPC would fall in the second camp - probably because they know that I was a property owner who was willing to discuss my property investing notions on HPC. For some on that website: all people who invest in BTL property are "evil", and therefore deserve to be attacked, especially someone writes about it openly and with pride. That is not the attitude on this site, thank goodness. People here want to learn from the successes of others, not tear them down.)

 

Let me ask you this, Duke: Have you seen a more accurate forecast?

Did anyone else forecasting in October 2009 get right that some property measures would peak at year end, and others by April? And how many others saw us sliding into average 0.5-1.0% falls ("crash cruise speed") during the second half of this year? Maybe the Halifax drop will prove a one-off to soon be reversed, but I don't think so.

 

And what is your forecast? How do you derive it? And why do you think it will prove different?

 

On GEI we try to learn from each other, not drag others down. If you have a better forecasting technique, we would be happy to hear about it.

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I think anyone who attacks a forecast that was this close to being fully accurate is is either: amazingly petty minded, or is simply looking to stir up trouble. Which are you?

 

Let me ask you this, Duke: Have you seen a more accurate forecast?

Did anyone else forecasting in October 2009 get right that some property measures would peak at year end, and others by April? And how many others saw us sliding into average 0.5-1.0% falls ("crash cruise speed") during the second half of this year? Maybe the Halifax drop will prove a one-off to soon be reversed, but I don't think so.

 

I'm simply critical. Of every idea I come across. I think good ideas should always be subject to criticisms, especially apparently correct ones. My living depends on it.

 

In this case, I think you've misrepresented what you said - if so, can you admit you mis-spoke, or were at least misleading in your subject title (property should peak by year end)? You've also contradicted yourself and not proved your case.

 

I prefer the analysis here:

 

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/hou...rice_predictor/

 

as it's based on actual market activity, rather than relying on imperfect market knowledge in a secondary market.

 

But I have criticisms of that model, as I'm not sure how it explains - but it has so far, makes specific predictions, and can be inspected objectively. I've corresponded with the person that produced it, and he does too.

 

Harrison's arguments I don't buy, and don't like the exceptions he's forced to list in his book. His predictions have been surprisingly good, but it's hard to shake the feeling (having read his book) that he simply got lucky, since there's nothing fundamental about the factors he cites as drivers of the market.

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When the coalition of the losers start going after property owners, as they stated last week when they said that: "property owners can't run away", the price of property will nosedive well below the fictitious red line on that stupid graph.

 

The banksters made a miscalculation in the US when they assumed that the suckers that bought into their ponzi scheme would continue to pay off their mortgages from savings etc. After all it is the AMERICAN DREAM. But they were wrong. They walked away as housing is NOT the most important bill that needs paying.

 

The same scenario will p ayout with gormless "bricks and mortar" British.

 

The average price of a crumbling, shoddy, UK house will be well below 100oz of gold.

 

I respect your opinion, but The gold trail by FOA has given me a belief that it would be under 10 oz of gold.

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RESPONDING TO A NITPICKER

 

I'm simply critical. Of every idea I come across. I think good ideas should always be subject to criticisms, especially apparently correct ones. My living depends on it.

 

In this case, I think you've misrepresented what you said - if so, can you admit you mis-spoke, or were at least misleading in your subject title (property should peak by year end)? You've also contradicted yourself and not proved your case.

You are not trying to make a "legitimate criticism". That would require taking in ALL of what I say, including the very accurate parts of my forecast (which you omit), rather than just selecting a "nitpick". It is an intellectually dishonest technique, that was common on that other site. I got completely fed up with such nitpicking posts on HPC. (Many others have mentioned the unfairness there in posts and in PM's I received.) The HPC Mods never showed the integrity to try and stop this "negative and disruptive" posting behaviour on their site.

 

I think you are the one who consistently spins and exaggerates in an annoying and dishonest way. Unfortunately, my original posts were deleted on HPC, so people will have to find them on other threads here on GEI. If they are really interested, I invite them to do some searching, rather that simply relying in the out of context snippets such as the one that you have posted.

 

I prefer the analysis here:

 

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/hou...rice_predictor/

 

as it's based on actual market activity, rather than relying on imperfect market knowledge in a secondary market.

 

But I have criticisms of that model, as I'm not sure how it explains - but it has so far, makes specific predictions, and can be inspected objectively. I've corresponded with the person that produced it, and he does too.

I like Spline's work also, and on his site he certainly rates my Builders Bellwethers which tends to give an even early turn signal that most of the other indicators he looks at.

 

Once again in your biased argument, you have omitted any mention that my Builders Bellwether appears on his site. Here's a chart from Spline's site showing it:

zzzzju.png

 

Note my markings, showing how much earlier the turn warning came before the Turns in the various Housing indices.

 

Given the historical lags, and the potential for brief false signals, I recommend awaiting a "confirmation" signal. This would come when several of the Builders Bellwethers, such as Barratt (BDEV) moving through their 252d/1year moving average, to the upside or downside - suggesting a trend change is coming in house price indicies.

 

Look here, and you will see that the 252d MA was broken to the upside in early April 2009 .. update

zzzzw.gif

 

That upside break gave me the confidence to predict a Dead Cat Bounce in a (once very popular) HPC thread I started on 4 April 2009. As you have mentioned above, I saw signs of a peak in the UK Builders in October 2009, and that led me to suggest we could see a turn in the index by year-end, or at least within 6-9 months. Had I been more cautious, I would have said in my original October post, that one should await a confirmation of the signal, by seeing the BDEV price drop below the 252d MA. (I mentioned this requirement in various other posts on the same thread in October and November. But the nitpickers have chosen to ignore the need for a confirmation.)

 

While I would recommend that people treat these Builder Bellwether signals as "useful but not perfect" indicators - In fact, they have worked very well in this latest cycle. As the chart above shows, the 252d MA was broken to the downside in March 2010, and the 21d and 76d MA's did not fully rollover and turn significantly lower until May 2010. These subtleties should be carefully observed by those who want to use the BB's in their own forecasting. They should also pay attention to trading volumes in the shares, which should provide another important confirming indicator. For instance, the recent breakdown to new lows in BDEV with high trading volume, increases my confidence that we are headed into a period of falling home prices - "Crash Cruise speed" with falls averaging 0.5 - 1.0% per month (or more) seems likely.

 

Harrison's arguments I don't buy, and don't like the exceptions he's forced to list in his book. His predictions have been surprisingly good, but it's hard to shake the feeling (having read his book) that he simply got lucky, since there's nothing fundamental about the factors he cites as drivers of the market.

Like it or not, Fred Harrison predictions have probably been the most accurate of all, and were made years in advance.

 

You have been quick to criticise my forecasts, and those of Fred Harrison. I am waiting to see your own.

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... I think you've misrepresented what you said - if so, can you admit you mis-spoke, or were at least misleading in your subject title (property should peak by year end)? You've also contradicted yourself and not proved your case.

Duke, Have you stopped beating your wife? With comments like your above:

Perhaps you should change your name to: The Duke of Toxic Comments.

 

Many here find those occasional BDEV charts to be far better than the nonsense that spews forth from EA's and the newsreleases from the providers of Rightmove, Halifax, and Nationwide indexes.

 

Like Bubb, I would be interested in your property forecasts, and evidence that you have found something that works better.

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As usual, the responses are personal, emotional, fail to respond to the specific points, and lack a basic ability to reason.

 

Why should someone critiquing a forecast have to provide a better alternative? That's a childish argument.

 

Apparently "property to peak by year end" means "property to peak 6 months after year end".

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Why should someone critiquing a forecast have to provide a better alternative?

"critique"? ! LOL.

I haven't seen a "critique". Go and look the word up.

CRITIQUE - definition and examples of critique:

Research that involves a formal analysis and evaluation of a text, production, or performance.

 

What you made was a silly nitpick. It hardly deserves any sort of serious response.

This is a serious forum. Not a place for childish wind-ups and nitpicks. If you don't know the difference,

then I suggest you go back "home" to where your sort of half-baked, out-of-context nonsense passes

as a "formal analysis and evaluation". It doesn't here. "Analysis" looks like what is in my prior post.

 

As M-100 has pointed out, you seem to have learned your rhetorical techniques from those who ask:

"Have you stopped beating your wife?" / = your: "Can you admit you mis-spoke?"

 

That is rich coming from you, Toxic Duke, Man of small arguments, and even less analysis.

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"critique"? ! LOL.

I haven't seen a "critique". Go and look the word up.

CRITIQUE - definition and examples of critique:

Research that involves a formal analysis and evaluation of a text, production, or performance.

 

What you made was a silly nitpick. It hardly deserves any sort of serious response.

This is a serious forum. Not a place for childish wind-ups and nitpicks. If you don't know the difference,

then I suggest you go back "home" to where your sort of half-baked, out-of-context nonsense passes

as a "formal analysis and evaluation". It doesn't here. "Analysis" looks like what is in my prior post.

 

As M-100 has pointed out, you seem to have learned your rhetorical techniques from those who ask:

"Have you stopped beating your wife?" / = your: "Can you admit you mis-spoke?"

 

That is rich coming from you, Toxic Duke, Man of small arguments, and even less analysis.

 

I'm puzzled: if you don't like people (nit)picking over your predictions to see how accurate they are, then why make them, and claim they are correct?

 

And if it is a nit-pick, why not say "I was speaking loosely; it's not that important" rather than stamping your feet and whining?

 

Personally, I think clarity in your thread titles that are specific-sounding predictions would be important if you're setting yourself up as some kind of expert in prediction.

 

It is unconscionably arrogant to argue that others' criticisms of your self-proclaimed expertise is "disruptive".

 

Had I been more cautious, I would have said in my original October post, that one should await a confirmation of the signal

 

This is the closest you get to humility; however, I'm still not sure if you're clinging to the idea that your original prediction was correct, or if you are now saying your October prediction was wrong.

 

Spline says the index is "promising", which I'd agree with. What I'm not sure is whether it tells us anything more than we already know; certainly, his analysis is simpler and makes specific predictions rather than your more subjective, astrological ones.

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I'm puzzled: if you don't like people (nit)picking over your predictions to see how accurate they are, then why make them, and claim they are correct?

And if it is a nit-pick, why not say "I was speaking loosely; it's not that important" rather than stamping your feet and whining?

Truth is: You don't "get it".

While others see the value in the forecasts.

For those few that don't, just move on, and find something else to nitpick.

I think you (and the other antibodies) must miss my posts, or you wouldn't bother visiting and posting here.

 

On my side, I don't miss the HPC nitpicks, and am happy to post here in peace, rather than wasting time elsewhere.

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Truth is: You don't "get it".

While others see the value in the forecasts.

For those few that don't, just move on, and find something else to nitpick.

I think you (and the other antibodies) must miss my posts, or you wouldn't bother visiting and posting here.

 

On my side, I don't miss the HPC nitpicks, and am happy to post here in peace, rather than wasting time elsewhere.

 

 

Just had a quick look at the other place (sorry) and notice that even the 'Where's Bubb' and 'Bubb' threads have mysteriously vanished. Its like they're pretending you never existed. Their loss i feel!

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Just had a quick look at the other place (sorry) and notice that even the 'Where's Bubb' and 'Bubb' threads have mysteriously vanished. Its like they're pretending you never existed. Their loss i feel!

Ah... the huge threat of a ghost ex-poster.

HPC Mods seem to lack confidence in their ability to discuss the reasons the 2nd or 3rd most active poster left.

 

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