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The trigger for a Hyperinflationary shock

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Perhaps people have read Gonzalo Lira's articles on Zerohedge and they believe what he wrote, as compared to Mish who just theorizes without having any experience of the reality? Perhaps people are awakening to the reality?

 

You are right !

And I think this explains the interest:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deflation...lo-lira-octagon

 

The Deflation vs Hyperinflation Debate On Steroids, Or Mish vs Gonzalo Lira In The Octagon

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2010 18:01 -0500

 

A recent guest post by Gonzalo Lira on Zero Hedge, providing a theoretical framework for the arrival of hyperinflation, went viral, generating over 75k views and over 1,000 comments, further confirming that the biggest and most confounding debate in all of finance is what will the final outcome of the Fed's market manipulative actions be: deflation, inflation or, and not really comparable, hyperinflation (which is a distinctly different phenomenon from either of the above). The post infuriated some hard core deflationists who continue to refuse to acknowledge the possibility that in its attempt to inspire inflation at all costs, the Fed may just push beyond the tipping point of monetary imprudence away from mere target 2-3% inflation, and create an outright debasement of the world's reserve currency. One among these was none other than Mish himself, who a week ago recorded a podcast on Global Edge with Eric Townsend and Michael Hampton (link here), in which his conclusion was that Hyperinflation is the endgame, "so it is unlikely." Of course, the very premise of this statement argues that even in a monetary collapse the Fed will retain control over the flow of money, which of course is unlikely, and thus makes us very skeptical that such a simplistic and solipsistic argument is enough to resolve the debate. Since one of the items covered in the Mish podcast was Lira's argument, it was only fair that Gonzalo himself should be heard. Here is the Gonzalo Lira podcast defending the "Hyperinflation" case

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Yeh, and Weimar inflation was NOT caused by a wage-price spiral. It was caused by CB money printing. Just like EVERY other hyperinflation that there's ever been.

 

Hyperinflations have never occured in any economy running a commodity currency.

 

It's rocket science.

 

Obviously there were elements of wage price spiral. The government were a significant employer whereas the non-state sector were somewhat protected because firms could simply earn sufficient to pay workers wages to maintain their profitable export industries. The private sector must have to some degree acted to drive up prices simply because they were capable of earning more money to ensure they were fed and housed to be productive to their employers.

 

Meanwhile the government had to at least some extent print to compete with the private sector once they started the whole shazaam of printing to pay wages.

 

But i can see facts are not your strength. You DO know

 

:lol:

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Obviously there were elements of wage price spiral. The government were a significant employer whereas the non-state sector were somewhat protected because firms could simply earn sufficient to pay workers wages to maintain their profitable export industries. The private sector must have to some degree acted to drive up prices simply because they were capable of earning more money to ensure they were fed and housed to be productive to their employers.

 

Meanwhile the government had to at least some extent print to compete with the private sector once they started the whole shazaam of printing to pay wages.

 

But i can see facts are not your strength. You DO know

 

:lol:

 

You've got a lot of time on your hands. Why don't you use it more productively. Try Googling hyperinflation. Then the 'quantity theory of money'

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You've got a lot of time on your hands. Why don't you use it more productively. Try Googling hyperinflation. Then the 'quantity theory of money'

 

the wages rose. Just as they rose in chile and zimbabwe.

 

Try denying that a bit harder. You obviously are trying pretty hard already

 

It is not rocket science

 

:lol:

 

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the wages rose. Just as they rose in chile and zimbabwe.

 

Try denying that a bit harder. You obviously are trying pretty hard already

 

It is not rocket science

 

:lol:

 

but not enough to buy yesterdays basics....

 

an old article:

 

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/columns/hy...south-america/#

 

"How would you like to live in an economy without memory, where you don’t know the price of anything day to day or the value of the wage you are paid? That’s what it’s like under hyperinflation, in Argentina, supermarket prices are increased twice daily. During the two weeks we were in Brazil recently, interest rates rose 100% from 330% to 430%. Bolivia’s demand for money is so great that its third largest import is currency. "

 

 

"In 1986, President José Sarney of Brazil, in an attempt to do something dramatic about an inflation rate that threatened to soar to 500% or more, instituted an anti-inflation program that froze prices, controlled wages, and lopped three zeroes off the Brazilian currency. The plan succeeded in temporarily curbing inflation, but higher prices were quickly replaced by other problems. Severe shortages of daily necessities such as eggs, meat, and milk developed. Black markets quickly filled the vacuum, resulting in higher prices that didn’t show up in official inflation figures. "

 

this to me is multiplied across ALL gov stats.....unemployment, property prices, wages......it's ALL a con.Those who are basing their decision on gov stats WILL be caught out.

 

This is a comment by David at the bottom of that article:

 

"When I was in Brazil then, the rich carried US $100.00 bills in rolls that they converted to local currency when they needed some money. Since their savings account depreciated 20% every time the currency changed and dropped three zero’s, they used foreign banks in other currencies. Their yearly salary at Petrobras was doubled every year, they immediately bought whatever neccessities they could and discretionary spending was nonexistent.

In the US, only thing we got backing us up is gold and silver and real estate that doesn’t have houses on it in non inflated areas,(flyover country), unless the gold backed yuan gets real popular and you can invest in it, it’s looking like SPAM, lead and seed and maybe a chicken coop if it doesn’t break local codes.

Check urbansurvival.com if you don’t already read it."

 

here's a contrarian comment on gold, just to be fair ;) :

 

"Really, who typically buys a suit for $1250.00? Gold may go up from here but if you don’t sell at or before the peak, you will be a bubble boy and a sorry one. What currency will you take for the sale of your gold? A revalued (devalued)dollar or Amero? The answer is it will be electronic only, except for the black market which will always exist in some areas. Gold at that point will likely be illegal, as it once was in this country. Then you have to sell and they name the price-how about $35 per ounce?"

 

 

so ask yourself why Rothchilds have just bought into Bullionvault after exiting the gold market in 2004 ?

 

http://cryptogon.com/?p=16121

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but not enough to buy yesterdays basics....

 

an old article:

 

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/columns/hy...south-america/#

 

"How would you like to live in an economy without memory, where you don’t know the price of anything day to day or the value of the wage you are paid? That’s what it’s like under hyperinflation, in Argentina, supermarket prices are increased twice daily. During the two weeks we were in Brazil recently, interest rates rose 100% from 330% to 430%. Bolivia’s demand for money is so great that its third largest import is currency. "

 

 

"In 1986, President José Sarney of Brazil, in an attempt to do something dramatic about an inflation rate that threatened to soar to 500% or more, instituted an anti-inflation program that froze prices, controlled wages, and lopped three zeroes off the Brazilian currency. The plan succeeded in temporarily curbing inflation, but higher prices were quickly replaced by other problems. Severe shortages of daily necessities such as eggs, meat, and milk developed. Black markets quickly filled the vacuum, resulting in higher prices that didn’t show up in official inflation figures. "

 

this to me is multiplied across ALL gov stats.....unemployment, property prices, wages......it's ALL a con.Those who are basing their decision on gov stats WILL be caught out.

 

This is a comment by David at the bottom of that article:

 

"When I was in Brazil then, the rich carried US $100.00 bills in rolls that they converted to local currency when they needed some money. Since their savings account depreciated 20% every time the currency changed and dropped three zero’s, they used foreign banks in other currencies. Their yearly salary at Petrobras was doubled every year, they immediately bought whatever neccessities they could and discretionary spending was nonexistent.

In the US, only thing we got backing us up is gold and silver and real estate that doesn’t have houses on it in non inflated areas,(flyover country), unless the gold backed yuan gets real popular and you can invest in it, it’s looking like SPAM, lead and seed and maybe a chicken coop if it doesn’t break local codes.

Check urbansurvival.com if you don’t already read it."

 

here's a contrarian comment on gold, just to be fair ;) :

 

"Really, who typically buys a suit for $1250.00? Gold may go up from here but if you don’t sell at or before the peak, you will be a bubble boy and a sorry one. What currency will you take for the sale of your gold? A revalued (devalued)dollar or Amero? The answer is it will be electronic only, except for the black market which will always exist in some areas. Gold at that point will likely be illegal, as it once was in this country. Then you have to sell and they name the price-how about $35 per ounce?"

 

 

so ask yourself why Rothchilds have just bought into Bullionvault after exiting the gold market in 2004 ?

 

http://cryptogon.com/?p=16121

 

It is just all more words.

 

The fact is:

 

1. people did not wake up and discard their currency overnight or even over years.

 

2. Fritz in weimar who was sweeping the roads was being paid about a trillion plus by the end of 1923. Kevin In Zimbawe was getting 30 trillion a month.

 

3. People with debt and jobs in Weimar had their debt quickly devalued

 

soooooo.....

 

if the problem today is too much debt by households and firms, a wee bit of inflation less than hyperinflation is going to see them right and there is no need to destroy the world as we know it to satisfy the gold bugs

 

No matter how much you keep coming at me!

 

:D

 

You guys are just clinging to some kind of dream. And good luck to you!

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Shazaam!! Hyperinflation. ;)

 

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoXCvwVO1J4

 

 

"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and it's issuance." -- James Madison

 

"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero" - Voltaire

 

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws." Mayer Amschel Rothschild

 

Has AAK watched this? He needs to.

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Shazaam!! Hyperinflation. ;)

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfSDPY5rYZE&NR=1

 

I mean just look at that chart. :o

 

I know this clip is old, but just look at that chart.

 

QE 2 within weeks.....

 

 

In the long-term he's right. However, in the short-run expanding the money supply, with (close to) zero velocity, will not create inflation.

 

However, eventually, history shows that the population evenyually twigs what's going on. Loss of confidence in fiat creates the acceleration in velocity required to create the inflation. Then a positive feedback loop between inflation and velocity occurs: acclerating inflation creates accelerating velocity, which creates a further pick up in inflation, rinse, lather, repeat.

 

Hyperinflation is caused by CBs, not by trade unions that create wage-price spirals!

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You are right !

And I think this explains the interest:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deflation...lo-lira-octagon

 

The Deflation vs Hyperinflation Debate On Steroids, Or Mish vs Gonzalo Lira In The Octagon

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2010 18:01 -0500

When I read it, there were about 64 (!) comments after that article.

Here's one of the most interesting, and relevant for here:

 

by Zero Debt / on Sat, 09/11/2010 - 22:36

#576450

 

I think the international aspect of the money supply debate has been vastly underdiscussed. There is a lot of US bias on ZH, but one has to remember that the Fed policies have huge effects overseas as well. When US prints, China has to print as well, otherwise they cannot keep the RMB low. So effectively Fed drives Asia inflation. Look at what is happening in small open economies without capital controls nearby China: Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia. Massive property valuation increases and gross overvaluations. It is going to be a combination of price inflation and property valuation declines coming. Fed borrows money, US consumers spend, China exports, BOC prints money to keep the RMB tight with the USD, Hong Kong has to keep interest rates at record low sending properties booming.

 

http://www.economist.com/node/16542826

 

The assumptions of a lot of economists is that there are no currency pegs and there is only one central bank. With that kind of assumption they can always say that yeah we are going to "stimulate the national economy". That is a theoretical discussion which seems more like convenient assumptions that can fit an academic article but wouldn't guide a practitioner. What actually happens is that these reserves (from one central bank) trickle away and are spent in low-cost countries and hoarded in other open economies in which there is more faith in limited sane government (HK, SG, Swiss).

 

To put a military base in a foreign country is effectively dropping money from soldiers onto the local economy, yes, this is absolutely inflationary. Same thing with building up massive wealth reserves in the gulf, where is the oil money coming from, hmm, well, inflated dollars, perhaps? So where did the Dubai investment money come from? A pattern emerges. Fed policies create booms and busts all around the world, these malinvestments are spread way way beyond US shores. Sure one could say, all the real estate and fixed assets created to "catch up with" the increase in money supply are well spent, but I would beg to differ. Do the ordinary people in Dubai really need a monster tower, well of course, they do not. That type of concrete and steel edifice has no practical value beyond being an ego-boost for "investors" that were just lucky to sit on a pile of natural resources and let them flow for dollars, which could hardly be called a contribution to mankind.

 

It is a truly massive global scheme. They can talk about national inflation rate etc whatever, but the fact is that if you are going to make any sense of what is really happening in the international economy you have to look at property markets in open economies and reserves.

 

Any analysis of inflation, deflation and money supply without an international perspective is completely flawed and not worth paying attention to.

 

On top of that we have a bunch of policymakers that are scrambling to "cool the market", but they do not understand why it got hot in the first place and nevermind did not think about putting some type of built-in check and balance to the monetary base explosion in the first place. But it is a tough case overall. If all countries in the world agree to sell their fiat currency when there is another country printing their own fiat, the one that starts printing first and most furiously is going to hoard all fixed assets internationally, ultimately.

 

Stories are common in HK where mainland buyers leave luxury properties empty, even entire floors in new HK developments have few or no inhabitants, because they are so-called investment properties. At the same time, there are families cramming into low-cost housing with more than one person per room, in the same territory. Now then those are good signs of gross malinvestment and resource mis-allocation. You play the debt and asset game well, you win. You work hard for hourly pay, you loose.

 

/see:

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Sorry to butt in...

 

I must have missed where all of this Shazaam talk came from. Is it the same as Daddy Bear's crack-up boom?

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Hyperinflation is caused by CBs, not by trade unions that create wage-price spirals!

 

Who caused chilean hyperinflation? It was already 27% before Allende arrived to finish the job

 

Who caused the distruction of the zimbabwean economy if it was not Mugabe?

 

Who caused weimar if it was not misguided newly empowered workers and horribly unfair war reparations.

 

Do you have a coherant argument to say the Central banks caused the chaos by their own actions alone??

 

You dont. These events all required peculiar circumstances.

 

All you have is the same old cracked record.

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In the long-term he's right. However, in the short-run expanding the money supply, with (close to) zero velocity, will not create inflation.

 

However, eventually, history shows that the population evenyually twigs what's going on. Loss of confidence in fiat creates the acceleration in velocity required to create the inflation. Then a positive feedback loop between inflation and velocity occurs: acclerating inflation creates accelerating velocity, which creates a further pick up in inflation, rinse, lather, repeat.

Hyperinflation is caused by CBs, not by trade unions that create wage-price spirals!

 

That is the key to it - this unstable model (which may continue for some time) needs only a catalyst (French troops entering the Rhineland for example, in the case of Weimar) to create the 'Shazam'. The catalyst need not be anything particularly significant if the model is unstable enough.

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Who caused chilean hyperinflation? It was already 27% before Allende arrived to finish the job

 

Who caused the distruction of the zimbabwean economy if it was not Mugabe?

 

Who caused weimar if it was not misguided newly empowered workers and horribly unfair war reparations.

...

 

'newly empowerd workers' weren't printing these:

 

523_Eine_Billion_Reichsmark.jpeg

 

...

Do you have a coherant argument to say the Central banks caused the chaos by their own actions alone??

 

You dont. These events all required peculiar circumstances.

..

 

well what did they (Chili/Zimbabwe/Weimar) all have in common then?

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'newly empowerd workers' weren't printing these:

 

523_Eine_Billion_Reichsmark.jpeg

 

 

 

well what did they (Chili/Zimbabwe/Weimar) all have in common then?

 

They all seemed to involve people who knew nothing about economics and running a country getting into a position of power -Weimar less so but after ww1 to a degree the old guard was forced to stand aside to deal with the masses of returning soldiers where the old elite had no ability to fully hold onto the powers they once took for granted. In the UK the establishment always controls the corridors of power one way or another - i would say it is very much the same in the USA - but even in the UK a chunk of the upper class administrator class was wiped out in ww1 and doors opened for ordinary people from lower down the class system. Socialism became fashionable generally around this time.

 

Yes they all printed too much money - and presumably they all printed paper money rather than produced bank reserves. And they all seemed to have totally ignored the consequences of printing more to provide solutions as inflation rose to very high levels.

 

All involved ordinary people earning nominally hugely more money than a short while before - i cant see it is particularly relevant that some people were starving to death on a few billion a year when they needed 100 billion to get by.

 

 

 

 

 

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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/

 

Brendan Barber called “for a broad-based coalition” to challenge the upcoming public sector cuts to be announced in next month’s Comprehensive Spending Review. “These cuts will make the poll tax look as if it was dreamed up by Robin Hood,” said Mr Barber in reference to the community charge legislation at the end of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership. “Each day it becomes clearer there are alternatives to these deep cuts that not only threaten services but risk economic recovery and a double dip recesession,” he said. ”Voters last May did not vote for a radical and permanent cutback in the scale and scope of public services.

 

Could this be another trigger to hyperinflation? Wasn't there a similar situation in Weimar Republic?

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The "Shazaam Moment" - is more likely as a parabolic move is completing

 

Sorry to butt in...

I must have missed where all of this Shazaam talk came from. Is it the same as Daddy Bear's crack-up boom?

Mish came up with that in the earlier interview. He disparaged Lira's "Moment of Clarity", when bonds start selling off, as a "Shazaam" moment. In other words, he was dismissing this shift in direction, as a change that arrives from nothing, and so is not likely to happen.

 

In fact, when markets go parabolic, at some point they get so overvalued, that they become highly vulnerable to sudden reversal. It takes very little for the reversal to happen in such a market. A "cause" or "trigger" for such reversal is hardly needed, the change can appear like a sudden shifting of direction in a flock of geese, that move all at once. Like geese, humans are involved in herding behavior, and they can all be happy to bid an overvalued market up, and then suddenly the next day, they are all selling, with no apparent cause. This type of shift is common at the end of a parabolic move, when bullishness just becomes to extreme. This is an important point, which I have raised repeatedly, and could help strengthen Lira's argument, but NO ONE (including Lira) has picked up on it. Are there no experienced traders listening to this podcast?

 

As it happens, we saw a gap up, and reversal in the last few days in T-Bonds ... update

zzzzt.gif

 

That could start a more important reversal, but I don't think so. This looks more like a "pause that refreshes" to me, and Bonds could now be headed to much higher levels.

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Mish's latest comment on Inflation vs. Deflation:

 

Sunday Funnies 2010-09-12 Worthless Dollar

sunday%20funnies%202010-09-12%20worthles

 

The following is in reference to Instant Insanity - my comments on three whacko ideas by Willem Buiter, chief economist for Citigroup, to cure deflation.

 

Please give it a look if you have not done so already.

 

Given enough time, all fiat currencies go to zero (relative to some starting point)*. 2% inflation a year is enough to do it. This should not be confused with hyperinflation, a complete loss of faith in currency.

 

/see: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

== == ==

 

*I read that comment everywhere. And sure, fiat currencies commonly lose value.

But Sterling is still around after something like 1,000 years. Doesn't this prove the opposite point?

With Sterling's long survival people should be studying why and how that happens

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471 comments on that ZeroHedge thread - Imagine !

 

( Most are off topic, it seems to me. But I liked these: )

 

by toathis on Sat, 09/11/2010 - 18:24 / #576122

 

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final total catastrophe of the currency involved."

 

GOT THAT? the dollar will COLLAPSE. It is an absolute certainty. There shouldn't even be any debate anymore.

 

The DEFLATIONISTS already lost!

 

by Eternal Student on Sat, 09/11/2010 - 19:10 / #576192

 

Um, no. You are seriously mistaken. The Deflationists (and especially the Debt Deflationists) have been correct about the housing bubble, the stock market crash of 2008 and that Bernake's QE of last Summer wasn't going to spark inflation. The Inflationists were loudly yelling that it would last year, and only started shutting up around September 2009 when it was apparent that they were once again wrong.

 

You'd think that would be a clue, but no. Once again, in June, they started off again saying that the dollar was in danger of collapse soon, some of them even predicting it would happen this September. Well, that prediction seems wrong again. And for the same reasons. They don't take into account the full impact of a collapse in Credit, nor the impact of the currencies of the other nations which are in a weaker state than the US.

 

A collapse in the money supply (and that especially includes credit) is deflationary, not inflationary. And is not to be confused with a collapse in the dollar.

 

The dollar will collapse at some point; all fiat currencies do. And that will probably happen within the next 10 years, and probably sooner.

 

But right now, it's the collapse in the money+credit supply that we're looking at, and is the biggest threat. That is simply deflationary, and not inflationary.

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471 comments on that ZeroHedge thread - Imagine !

 

( Most are off topic, it seems to me. But I liked these: )

 

by toathis on Sat, 09/11/2010 - 18:24 / #576122

 

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final total catastrophe of the currency involved."

GOT THAT? the dollar will COLLAPSE. It is an absolute certainty. There shouldn't even be any debate anymore.

 

The DEFLATIONISTS already lost!

 

by Eternal Student on Sat, 09/11/2010 - 19:10 / #576192

 

Um, no. You are seriously mistaken. The Deflationists (and especially the Debt Deflationists) have been correct about the housing bubble, the stock market crash of 2008 and that Bernake's QE of last Summer wasn't going to spark inflation. The Inflationists were loudly yelling that it would last year, and only started shutting up around September 2009 when it was apparent that they were once again wrong.

 

You'd think that would be a clue, but no. Once again, in June, they started off again saying that the dollar was in danger of collapse soon, some of them even predicting it would happen this September. Well, that prediction seems wrong again. And for the same reasons. They don't take into account the full impact of a collapse in Credit, nor the impact of the currencies of the other nations which are in a weaker state than the US.

 

A collapse in the money supply (and that especially includes credit) is deflationary, not inflationary. And is not to be confused with a collapse in the dollar.

 

The dollar will collapse at some point; all fiat currencies do. And that will probably happen within the next 10 years, and probably sooner.

 

But right now, it's the collapse in the money+credit supply that we're looking at, and is the biggest threat. That is simply deflationary, and not inflationary.

 

 

That's a direct quote from Von Mises - didn't you spot it?

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When I read it, there were about 64 (!) comments after that article.

Here's one of the most interesting, and relevant for here:

 

by Zero Debt / on Sat, 09/11/2010 - 22:36

#576450

 

I think the international aspect of the money supply debate has been vastly underdiscussed. There is a lot of US bias on ZH, but one has to remember that the Fed policies have huge effects overseas as well. When US prints, China has to print as well, otherwise they cannot keep the RMB low. So effectively Fed drives Asia inflation. Look at what is happening in small open economies without capital controls nearby China: Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia. Massive property valuation increases and gross overvaluations. It is going to be a combination of price inflation and property valuation declines coming. Fed borrows money, US consumers spend, China exports, BOC prints money to keep the RMB tight with the USD, Hong Kong has to keep interest rates at record low sending properties booming.

2 years ago hyper-inflationists were making the argument that Japan didn't experience hyper-inflation because it "exported its inflation" [ZIRP money chasing yield]. With bubbles being blown in China etc, why couldn't this argument now not equally be applied to the US. Seems a lack of objectivity is involved in not recognising this. Real arguments and realistic scenarios need to be put forward besides the old mantras for hyper-inflationary theory to remain credible.

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