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Nov.-Dec. Gold & Gold share thread

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IMPORTANT Resistance level.

 

I just noticed that the gold shares (GDX) have bounced back to an important level

 

agif2fq8.gif

 

For the Bull's sake, it needs to power through here on big volume next week.

If it fails to do so, Gold shares may begin a renewed slide.

 

Yesterday was a "half day", so perhaps Friday's volume was not so meaningful,

but I would like to see more.

 

I did some significant selling/ profit-taking yesterday.

Nest week's action will tell if I should have done more

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AFTER banging on the ceiling,

 

Gold has finally broken out over $644

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Gold shares have underperformed* Gold in recent weeks, says Financial Sense.

 

Here, we see that the Gold share index (HUI) ... update

bigpr0.gif

... rose to he upper Bolly, and then fell back.

 

It need to hang in there, and rally back, to "stretch the Bolly", if we are to see a breakout

 

Here's a Daily chart of GDX ... update

bigyg4.gif

... which shows a Double Top, and a pullback to expected support at GDX-$40.

The OBV still looks healthy, and so I do expect the $40 support to hold.

 

= = =

 

*Actually, HUI has moved up more than gold,

but not as fast as the usual 3x to 5x move that is common

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From the TFNN broadcast: (friday, 1:42)

 

apparently Jim Rogers has said, "I will see $10,000 gold in my lifetime",

 

and he sees some possibility of $1 million gold... if we see a currency collapse

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From the TFNN broadcast: (friday, 1:42)

 

apparently Jim Rogers has said, "I will see $10,000 gold in my lifetime",

 

and he sees some possibility of $1 million gold... if we see a currency collapse

 

 

He has changed his tune, he always said gold would go up but less than most other commodities, is he less bullish on the base metals?

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From the TFNN broadcast: (friday, 1:42)

 

apparently Jim Rogers has said, "I will see $10,000 gold in my lifetime",

 

and he sees some possibility of $1 million gold... if we see a currency collapse

That would be some collapse, but surely paper money would effectively be worthless in this scenario? It wouldn't be worth counting as you couldn't keep up with the rate at which it was falling. What would $1million buy (other than an ounce of gold)?

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I heard Jim Rogers today.

 

Frizzers asked him about that "$10,000 per ounce" and he denied every saying it

 

= =

 

SPY looking shakey today

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Gold correction may be over

 

We have just bounced off support at 40 for GDX : chart = eqv.HUI-340

 

If that doesnt hold over the next few days, there is support just below it at GDX-38

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Gold correction may be over

 

We have just bounced off support at 40 for GDX : chart = eqv.HUI-340

 

If that doesnt hold over the next few days, there is support just below it at GDX-38

 

Just had this land in my mail box and this chap is bearish on short term gold.

 

Link

 

I am no chartist but I dont see a major pullback happening at this time

 

Any thoughts on his Elliot wave interpretation?

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Here's Allard's EW count

11-12-06_image-3.gif

 

Mine would be different,

with the latest 5 waves up following an A-B-C correction (my C= his :lol:

By this thinking, we are in a pullback, with more legs up to follow

 

However, i must warn: You should trade as if "Anything can happen".

(The recent "restrained action" in the major gold shares could be considered mildly

supportive of Allard's interpretation rather than mine. But most of my juniors have

done very well, and so that helps keep me optimistic.)

Ultimately, it may depend on whether or not the dollar resumes its sharo decline,

as I expect soon.

 

And even if I am right, we may have only seen the a wave down on an a-b-c correction

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However, i must warn: You should trade as if "Anything can happen".

(The recent "restrained action" in the major gold shares could be considered mildly

supportive of Allard's interpretation rather than mine. But most of my juniors have

done very well, and so that helps keep me optimistic.)

Ultimately, it may depend on whether or not the dollar resumes its sharo decline,

as I expect soon.

 

And even if I am right, we may have only seen the a wave down on an a-b-c correction

 

I am in gold for the long term so I am prepared for a certain amount of volatility. I wouldnt want to jump in and out of the market with some of the relatively small movements we have seen recently. Only if we see another pullback similar to the one we saw in May would I be tempted to try to time the market.

 

I think my major concern is the sliding pound/dollar exchange rate. I would like to invest in Uranium and some soft commodity ETF's, but for now I am very nervous of any investment denominated in dollars.

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"I wouldnt want to jump in and out of the market with some of the relatively small movements we have seen recently"

 

PERHAPS I SHOULD explain how I do it,

so you can understand how I can make this volatility work for me.

 

I have a large portfolio of Junior miners and explorers,

with most of them acquired thru private placements, where I generally bought at a discount to market,

and acquired some free warrants at the same time.

 

My rule is: When it doubles, sell half.

Quite a number if these cheapies do double, and if the upward volume is strong, then i will let them

run before selling down to my "HALF level." Others are less strong, and after the 4 months hold is up,

they may look as though they do not have the momentum to make a double.

 

In any case, when gold is running, I often have a number of shares trading at/near my target levels,

and so pushes up tend to generate some selling, realising cash for further investments.

 

THUS, my sales, on the upthrusts in volatility, tend to be sales with nice profits being realised.

I will then sit on the resulting cash for a while, until gold looks ready to finish ist next price dip,

whenever that may be. I then reinvest the cash in other stocks which have interesting stories,

and attractiev charts. I try to buy them when they are at expected inflection points, and are set

to breakout soon.

 

THUS, my sales on jumps, and buys on dips, ten to be moving money from fully valued junior

miners, into those that still look cheap. The volatility works for me!

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Copied from main monthly comments thread:

 

GOLD: Been looking at some MA's on the long term daily charts. 100 has crossed under the 200 for the 1st time in 18 months (pretty bearish I'd say). But the 50 is looking lively and is poised to blast back up above the 200 very shortly (nicely bullish). So... looks like it's crunch time. I'm staying on the sidelines for the moment. Have a hunch that the critical 300DMA is gonna be tested again. This has held but been bounced off many times throughout the bull market. If we come down and bounce off it at around $600 then I'm in - otherwise risk / reward looks a little shaky for now. (Still got my long term fund holdings of MLG&G though).

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Is this a reason to be bullish on gold next year, or are the goldbugs simply in the wrong market? The masses may be turning.

 

From a Selfridges spokeswoman.

 

She said the store had sold out of luxury gifts such as a £5,000 gold chocolate fountain, and had sold thousands of £19 packs of a liquid which turns bathwater golden. John Lewis said sales in its stores around the country were 12 per cent up on last year.

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....e_id=2&ct=5

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