Jump to content
drbubb

Summer Doldrums, or the Eve of Disaster? / Podcast

Recommended Posts

gerlogo82pct.jpg

 

2010 GER - Episode 01

Summer Doldrums, or the Eve of Disaster? / Podcast

GER#01 Aug.2010 / Experts: Skarica, Townsend, Hampton

==========================================

 

PODCAST : http://globaledge.podbean.com/2010/08/09/s...ve-of-disaster/

 

geiexperts.jpg

 

Introducing Global Edge Radio, featuring the GEI Experts panel, wth Dave Skarica, Erik Townsend, and your GEI Radio host, Michael Hampton.

 

We discuss the short term and long term set-up in the markets, and examine the prospects from both a Bearish and Bullish point of view. Some indicators we look at include: unemployment data, the current preponderance of negative economic indicators, and the longer term impact of the hugely negative sentiment readings we saw back in late June. Does the bull market still have legs? Will a new rally be fueled by QE2? Or will it be overwhelmed by events associated with the Cardinal climax, or a big Elliott third wave to the downside? We also consider whether or not the market is now seeing a seasonal low in gold prices.

 

There was an error near the end of the podcast, in my reference to the Baltic Dry index. In fact, the chart I had seen was the “Aifreight & Logistics Index” - see chart: http://tinyurl.com/AirF-Aug6 (thanks, Hogwild) - and not the Baltic Dry Index, which has had a tiny rally by comparison. For those with sensitive ears, you will notice that there are some minor distortions in the quality of the audio, something we will endeavor to improve on future podcasts.

 

The issues in the podcast are discussed further in a thread on Global Edge Investors: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Doldrums

== ==

 

Here's the chart: SPX versus Aifreight & Logistics Index

xxxi.png

 

QUICK LINKS:

Podcast : http://tinyurl.com/ger-doldrums

To Here : http://tinyurl.com/gei-doldrums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes,

The "Erik T." in this podcast, is the same "Erik from Hong Kong" who has been calling into Financial Sense.

 

He also writes articles for Financial Sense.

And it was this interview: http://twobeerswithsteve.libsyn.com/index.php?post_id=620870

on TwoBeersWithSteve, that encouraged me to get in touch with Erik.

== ==

 

davebnn.jpg

 

Dave Skarica's website is : http://AddictedToProfits.Net

 

And he is a regular interviewee on: http://howestreet.com/audiovideo/ ,

where he also provides some interesting charts, to back up his comments.

 

Here's one of his earlier Podcast (from Nassau!) on YouTube:

 

I am currently reading a draft of his new book, THE GREAT CYCLE

== ==

 

I am hoping to make an Expert's Panel a regular feature of Global Edge Radio,

and I welcome people to have a listen: http://globaledge.podbean.com/

 

Please tell others, or leave comments on GER if you like what you hear !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You mentioned Semiconductors. Lagging the main market but there are some that have incredibly strong order books and prospects. The 200 hour ma looks to be crucial for the index though.

sp500vssemisindex.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You mentioned Semiconductors. Lagging the main market but there are some that have incredibly strong order books and prospects. The 200 hour ma looks to be crucial for the index though.

sp500vssemisindex.png

Instead of "lagging" (which is abnormal), I think Semis may be leading the market lower

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MARKET SENTIMENT

 

This is an online poll

What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?

 

Bullish 49.38% 241 votes

Bearish 38.93% 190 votes

Neutral 11.68% 57 votes

 

/update: http://apps.thestreet.com/survey/results/r...4D7E7?sid=40797

 

Citibank's Panic and Euphoria Index

marketSentiment.gif

/source: http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_02...ntreadings.html

 

Other Measures

====

Sentiment Charts x X : http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technicia...s/sentiment.htm

Barron's Sent-Indices : http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_02...ntreadings.html

I.I. Investor's Survey : http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x600x400 : Other chart

Investors Confidence : chart / data: http://internet.statestreet.com/industry_i...toricaldata.pdf

AAII Sentiment Index : http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/

Market Gauge Charts : http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgpro/charts/ChartTOC.asp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can SUBSCRIBE to future Global Edge Radio podcasts, here:

 

: blueicon_add_subscription.gif :

 

http://www.podbean.com/podcast-add-my-subscription?pid=43023

 

( It is FREE ! )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Instead of "lagging" (which is abnormal), I think Semis may be leading the market lower

 

One of my favourites (VEECO )in this sector is getting hit again this afternoon. Given that it is playing a key part in develpoing the lighting (LED) market and has just announced brilliant results and have upped forecasts it is difficult to understand the sell off . It has been an eleven bagger so I suppose people are taking some money off the table. Has just bounced off it's 200 dma.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great discussion, knew it was going to be good when I heard a lovely clip from Kid Koala as the opening music :)

 

For people who want to add it as a feed rather than having to register etc (what I got when I clicked the subscribe button, I used this url: http://globaledge.podbean.com/feed/ just copy and paste it into your thing as a new podcast.

 

Keep up the great work DrBubb!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JUMP IN HITS ?

More downloads of the podcast, which must have been due to these new links:

+

+ http://www.vidnewz.com/tag/doldrums

 

It was interesting to see the VidNews page dedicated to "Doldrums":

...more from there...

 

8.9.10 Summer Doldrums Dave's ETF RoundUp

Posted on August 9, 2010 by Dave. The stock market drifted higher today in its quietest session of the year. There is speculation that the Fed will signal potential steps to boost the sluggish economic recovery - etfroundup.com

 

"quietest session of the year" ?. Hmm

zzzzl.gif

 

The Blogger U.S. Markets Shake Off Early Doldrums

U.S. markets shake off early doldrums. NEW YORK, Aug. 9 UPI -- U.S. markets opened flat Monday and picked up steam in the early afternoon. Disappointing data from a week ago and anticipation of a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee - luishipolito.blogspot.com

 

Deficits, Taxes Disillusionment Welcome To California's Budget

Patt Morrison for August 5, 2010 Deficits, taxes disillusionment welcome to California's budget doldrums The toll of Bell Fallout over salaries sparks change Hold the motherhood, please the increasing trend of childless women - scpr.org

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Great discussion, knew it was going to be good when I heard a lovely clip from Kid Koala as the opening music :)

I'm glad you liked it.

Actually, it is a brief clip from a piece composed by David Byrne, and it was the theme music for a wonderful film called "The Last Emperor."

 

116406_1_f.jpg

 

You can here the whole piece here:

The Album :: http://www.maniadb.com/album.asp?a=116406&s=0&o=l

 

Here's the classic David Byrne music:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not everyone likes the Astro-cycles, as this comment from the CM website shows:

 

crash_watcher

Re: Daily Digest 8/9 - Martenson on TechTicker, Frugality = ...

Summer Doldrums, or the Eve of Disaster?

 

Great job Eric T, you articulated your views very well. I had to go back and listen twice to make sure that the host was making financial predictions in-part based on astrology. Cardinal climax, hmmm.....

 

(For those who may be unfamiliar with the Cardinal Climax, there are two threads that relate to it):

 

+ CC: When is it? : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=10740

+ Arch Crawford : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9644

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Art Cashin: Markets Are 'Forming a Top'

Published: Thursday, 5 Aug 2010 |

 

VIDEO: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1560562263&play=1

Previous appearance : http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?play=1&video=1558998554

 

New weekly claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, according to a government data Thursday. Stocks seesawed, trimmed their losses after a weak open—then slipped again. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, discussed his insights.

 

“I’m surprised by the muted reaction [markets] are having for a couple of reasons: This is a real-time number, fresh data—a lot of the other things we’re looking at are rear-view mirror,” Cashin told CNBC.

 

“I think the market’s [behaving] somewhat hopeful.”

 

The jobless claims data comes ahead of the government's July jobs report, scheduled for Friday. Economists expect to see that 65,000 jobs were lost from nonfarm payrolls, according to the latest Reuters survey.

 

“[Markets] may have a little room to go higher, but we’re forming a top here and we’ll keep an eye out for that next week,” said Cashin.

 

/see: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38575068

== ==

 

More Cashin appearances:

Mon. 9 Aug.: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1562543773&play=1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(This was originally posted on DrBubb's diary, but I wanted it here too,

in case newcomers surf in here from the Global Edge Radio podcast):

 

The Dow's fight back after the Fed's announcement this evening looked unconvincing. The rest of this week could be a bloodbath for the markets.

edit: also, volume was light and we seem to have a head and shoulders on the daily Dow. Wishful thinking? We'll see tomorrow...

I count three hanging men, maybe four.

 

xxxe.png

 

That could be enough to "choke" the market and break the uptrend

 

A "fall from Grace" out of this 7-day box, seems likely to me ... update

zzzz.gif

 

BTW, the box began during the Cardinal Climax period (with Magnetic material from Coronal Mass Ejections hitting Earth),

but that may be a mere coincidence

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ERROR MESSAGE - seems we had too much success in attracting an audience

====

(I found out what happened):

GER hit the Monthly bandwidth limitation;

 

PROBLEM IS NOW FIXED! : and the podcast is available again !

 

go to: http://tinyurl.com/GER-Doldrums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good discussion. Well worth a listen and I look forward to the next one.

 

It's good to actually get some debate and disagreement in a discursive environment. Most other financial podcasts I listen to (Puplava, King, GSR) are either all buddy-buddy agreement or a staged 'devil's advocate' pseudo-debate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Good discussion. Well worth a listen and I look forward to the next one.

It's good to actually get some debate and disagreement in a discursive environment. Most other financial podcasts I listen to (Puplava, King, GSR) are either all buddy-buddy agreement or a staged 'devil's advocate' pseudo-debate.

That's a good point.

As I said on DrB's Diary yesterday:

"Respectful debate is valued here. It is okay to be wrong. (I am wrong myself often enough.)"

Respecting an opposite opinion, is a great way to develop listening skills and to arrive at the truth faster.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dominic has been kind enough to put this podcast on FBB as a guest-hosted interview.

 

I expect that will help it reach a wider audience.

 

BTW, there has been quite a lively discussion (over 50 posts!) about astro-cycles and market timing on FBB:

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2010/07/...all-from-larry/

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ERIK was right about the deteriorating fundamentals

 

They pay these guys money? Why?

 

Earnings Expectations Come From Overly Optimistic Analysts

 

Mish reports how 58 of 58 economists were overly optimistic on the Philly Fed manufacturing estimate, expecting +7 when it actually came in -7.7. This comes after 42 of 42 economists were wrong on the unemployment report, expecting an improvement when instead we got a worsening. Bespoke notes how unemployment hit 500K weekly claims, the worse report since November 2009, and 22K worse than expected. McKinsey has weighed in with a report on how earnings are consistently over-estimated by analysts, despite a decade-long effort of stricter regulation:

 

001xc.png

 

Right now analysts are expecting a year-end S&P of 1235. Bespoke looks at this and is shocked, shocked to find that all analysts are bullish and across the board their current estimates are almost exactly 10% higher than their price targets at the start of the year:

 

xx

 

/more: http://yelnick.typepad.com/

== ==

 

You get much better value, reading GEI or listening to GER for FREE !

 

Wall Street rewards crooks and incompetents, because they are good at stealing from their clients

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm glad you liked it.

Actually, it is a brief clip from a piece composed by David Byrne, and it was the theme music for a wonderful film called "The Last Emperor."

 

You can here the whole piece here:

The Album :: http://www.maniadb.com/album.asp?a=116406&s=0&o=l

 

Here's the classic David Byrne music:

 

That soundtrack was one of the first CDs I ever purchased! Knew I recognised that music! :D

 

Listening to the podcast now -- kudos to you Dr Bubb!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×