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Hindenburg Omen thread

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Hindenburg Omen thread

This signal may warn of coming crashes

==========================

"The Omen occurs when an unusually high number of companies in the New York Stock Exchange reach 52-week highs and lows at the same time."

 

Hindenburg-inside-small1a.jpg

 

I found a GEI thread on this here, but it is a little old now. I want to look out for this technical indicator in the months ahead and test its ability to serve as a marker for a market crash (which I believe is a possibility)

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....hindenberg+omen

 

I believe Bubble Pricker may have some authorship of the Wikipedia entry, if so kudos to him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

 

The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen has five criteria:

 

1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.

2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 75. This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.

3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.

4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.

5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

 

These measures are calculated each evening using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. The occurrence of all five criteria on one day is often referred to as an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second (or more) Hindenburg Omen signals occur during a 36-day period from the first signal.

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What is latest on this indicator ?

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What is latest on this indicator ?

Here's a couple of links showing when they appear for;

 

NYSE

NASDAQ

 

You can change the dates at the bottom to get a different timeframe. Unfortunately I can't speak Italian but this site could be an interesting resource. Anyone speak Italian perhaps could explore the site more?

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Here's a couple of links showing when they appear for;

 

Nice links Perish...I will have a look

Anyone got a quick way of assessing this without lots of weblinks and excel manipulation?

 

Mods...I have incorrectly spelt the title of the thread. Can you rename it The Hindenburg Omen. Thanks!

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No signal - at the moment, it seems

 

zzzzi.png

/see: http://www.sentimentcharts.it/grpview.asp?...=404&id=539

 

Although, one site was flashing one a few weeks ago:

 

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

 

Hindenburg Omen Confirmed... Or, Was It?

 

The Hindenburg Omen (HO) was described in yesterday's blog. For more on how it works, click here http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/07/hin...ing-market.html.

 

For the HO to be confirmed, it must happen at least twice in a 36-day window. Did we get confirmation today? Well, that's a tough one. According to Yahoo Finance, there were 102 new highs and 85 new lows out of 3,946 issues traded. That means that the new highs test was met, but the new lows test came in at 2.155% of issues traded. The trigger criteria calls for 2.2%. Are we supposed to round up?

 

But, the HO is not nearly the only reason to fear a market meltdown. There are a whole slew of others. Some are out there, some are not.

 

A man named Steve Puetz (pronounced "pits") is a student of stock market crashes. He has concluded that solar eclipses combined with full moons were somehow connected to the timing of market crashes. He does NOT suggest that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But, his research does demonstrate that a full moon occurring close to a solar eclipse, in particular, seems to affect investor psychology in such a way as to transform investor emotions into panic.

 

His research found that 8 of the greatest market crashes in history fell within a time period of 6 days before, to 3 days after, a full moon that occurred within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse. Yes, you read that right!

 

Could this be random? Statistically, he found that for all 8 crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be less than one chance in 127,000.

 

It's important to understand that EVERY solar eclipse must, by definition, occur within six weeks of a full moon, which occurs every 4 weeks. The combination does NOT mean a waterfall decline will ensue, but it does suggest a timing window, should one occur.

 

Now, here's where things get verrrrry interesting, as Arte Johnson would say. In the year 2010, there are only 2 solar eclipses: One occurred in January, and the only other one will occur on July 11! The next full moon occurs on July 26th, with one to follow on August 24th. So, if we combine the research of Robert McHugh with that of Steve Puetz, this would suggest that a crash could occur at anytime!

 

Don't buy that one? I don't blame you. But, there is a lot more.

 

Dow Theory holds that when the Industrials make a new low confirmed by a new low in either the Transportations or the Utilities, a new bear market has been indicated. This signal has been given. Dow Theory does NOT predict crashes, just suggests that the primary direction of the market is down.

 

Let's not forget the horrific plunge in the nation's money supply. According to adjusted numbers crunched by John Williams of ShadowStats, inflation-adjusted M3 is declining at an annualized rate of 5.9%, the steepest since the Great Depression. This drop reflects sharply reduced lending by financial institutions and foresages extreme problems in the banking sector.

 

According to Williams, whenever real annual M3 growth has turned negative, the economy has followed. Every time real M3 has contracted, the economy has fallen into recession shortly thereafter, or, as in the case of the 1973 to 1975 recession, where the M3 contraction took place after the recession had started, the existing downturn has intensified. Double dip, anyone?

 

Ignore this at your market peril.

 

/Marko's Take: http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010_07_01_archive.html

 

== ==

 

MORE on the Hindenburg Omen - from July 2008:

http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/56...k_Market_Crash/

 

zzzz.gif

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HINDENBURG OMEN ?

 

(excerpt from McHugh's commentary):

We came inches from getting an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen Stock Market Crash Signal Wednesday. We came three New 52 Week Lows from the requisite 70. There were 67 New Lows and 105 New Highs. All other criteria for a Hindenburg Omen were met. This count comes from the "official" data source, the Wall Street Journal. However, yahoo.com had us getting a Hindenburg Omen as did several other sources counting New 52 Week NYSE Highs and Lows.

 

We need to have both New Highs and New Lows be at least 2.20 percent of total NYSE stocks traded on a given day and we came in at 2.116 percent Wednesday. What is interesting is we got as many New 52 Week Highs as we did, in fact we got more 52 Week Highs than Lows on a day when stocks plunged. This leads us to believe it is very possible we will get a Hindenburg Omen observation or more than one observation over the next week.

. .

Stocks plunged Wednesday, breaking decisively below the bottom boundary of the Rising Bearish Wedge termination top pattern we have been following, that started on our recent July 2nd phi mate turn date. We also got a ton of sell signals in our key trend-finder indicators. This suggests to us there is a very high probability that wave 2-up has topped, and 3-down has started. Wave c-up of 2's top was a truncated Rising Bearish Wedge pattern, meaning prices failed to "throw-over" the upper boundary of the Wedge. However, we warned that this was a real possibility. The truncation no doubt was the result of a powerful cycle pull from the important Bradley model turn date August 10th, 2010 +/- a day, which also came at a New Moon, also an event that is associated with tops.

 

Wave 3-down could take 2,000 points off the Dow Industrials over the next several months, 20 percent off the major averages.

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...

A man named Steve Puetz (pronounced "pits") is a student of stock market crashes. He has concluded that solar eclipses combined with full moons were somehow connected to the timing of market crashes. He does NOT suggest that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But, his research does demonstrate that a full moon occurring close to a solar eclipse, in particular, seems to affect investor psychology in such a way as to transform investor emotions into panic.

 

His research found that 8 of the greatest market crashes in history fell within a time period of 6 days before, to 3 days after, a full moon that occurred within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse. Yes, you read that right!

 

Could this be random? Statistically, he found that for all 8 crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be less than one chance in 127,000.

 

It's important to understand that EVERY solar eclipse must, by definition, occur within six weeks of a full moon, which occurs every 4 weeks. The combination does NOT mean a waterfall decline will ensue, but it does suggest a timing window, should one occur.

 

Now, here's where things get verrrrry interesting, as Arte Johnson would say. In the year 2010, there are only 2 solar eclipses: One occurred in January, and the only other one will occur on July 11! The next full moon occurs on July 26th, with one to follow on August 24th. So, if we combine the research of Robert McHugh with that of Steve Puetz, this would suggest that a crash could occur at anytime!

...

 

Love it. 2 solar eclipses in 2010, which cover together 8 0f the approx. 12 full moons, and the you get 6 days around that full moon to attribute something that looks like a plunge or otherwise a correction to an innocent star or moon :lol: . And there are actually on average more than 2 eclipses a year. I so hope that if a crash takes place this month it's before the 21st, but well after the 12th (RE: Pesavento). The 16th-18th work for me, and it coincides with my mother in law visiting, which I attribute bearish sentiment to (tongue in cheek).

 

I find it ridiculus that people do research into event of no significance statistically, and then try to feed others their excuse for ack of productivity in the form of false advise. Central bankers and policy makers included...

 

Did I rant? :unsure:

 

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HINDENBURG OMEN ?

 

(excerpt from McHugh's commentary):

We came inches from getting an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen Stock Market Crash Signal Wednesday. We came three New 52 Week Lows from the requisite 70. There were 67 New Lows and 105 New Highs. All other criteria for a Hindenburg Omen were met. This count comes from the "official" data source, the Wall Street Journal. However, yahoo.com had us getting a Hindenburg Omen as did several other sources counting New 52 Week NYSE Highs and Lows.

 

We need to have both New Highs and New Lows be at least 2.20 percent of total NYSE stocks traded on a given day and we came in at 2.116 percent Wednesday. What is interesting is we got as many New 52 Week Highs as we did, in fact we got more 52 Week Highs than Lows on a day when stocks plunged. This leads us to believe it is very possible we will get a Hindenburg Omen observation or more than one observation over the next week.

. .

Stocks plunged Wednesday, breaking decisively below the bottom boundary of the Rising Bearish Wedge termination top pattern we have been following, that started on our recent July 2nd phi mate turn date. We also got a ton of sell signals in our key trend-finder indicators. This suggests to us there is a very high probability that wave 2-up has topped, and 3-down has started. Wave c-up of 2's top was a truncated Rising Bearish Wedge pattern, meaning prices failed to "throw-over" the upper boundary of the Wedge. However, we warned that this was a real possibility. The truncation no doubt was the result of a powerful cycle pull from the important Bradley model turn date August 10th, 2010 +/- a day, which also came at a New Moon, also an event that is associated with tops.

 

Wave 3-down could take 2,000 points off the Dow Industrials over the next several months, 20 percent off the major averages.

 

I find The Omen very interesting. I think it deserves some attention.

I wonder, given the omen combined with a crash, how the different components of the conditions perform during the crash. Obviously it's preceded by a tale of two groups of stocks - the one that were rising to glory and the ones that were the black swans. Do the 52 week highs plunge more than the 52 week lows? How do they do compared to the index?

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I find The Omen very interesting. I think it deserves some attention.

I wonder, given the omen combined with a crash, how the different components of the conditions perform during the crash. Obviously it's preceded by a tale of two groups of stocks - the one that were rising to glory and the ones that were the black swans. Do the 52 week highs plunge more than the 52 week lows? How do they do compared to the index?

 

The Cardinal Complex is a rarer event, and possibly of more significance.

 

I believe the CC kicked off what I call the "Grace Box", and the Bradley Turn day was associated with the last day of the Box.

 

Grace Box - Aug.#1

zzzz.gif

Grace Box - Aug.#2 ... update

xxxmk.gif

Grace Box - May 2010

zzzzh.gif

 

Interesting that on those two days, at either side of the box:

+ We gapped up into the Grace Box on 2 Aug. (the day after the CC identified by Arch Crawford), and then

+ We gapped down out of the Box on 11 Aug. (the day after the 10 Aug. Bradley Turn).

 

I am checking, but I think the previous Grace Box in May also finished on a Bradley Turn day or Pesavento P-Date, or very close to one.

 

In edit: Indeed it was !

Here's the chart showing those important peaking days back in late April: ... mid-July to late-Aug

zzzzca.gif

 

If you don't believe it? Listen to the FBB podcast just before the Turn:

A Pesavento Turn Date This Weekend? / posted: 23.April

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all due respect dr.b but whereas lp may have been right with his april call, his warnings of carnage in july were incorrect

Hence, a hit or miss approach is all it is

That is unfair, IMO. I think that Larry predictions are better than pure "hit or miss."

 

The TURNS work probably better than half the time - but with nowhere near 100% accuracy. And they sometimes pinpoint very important Turns precisely, as Larry did in late April 2010, early March 2009, and the big drop in the week of 5-9.Oct.2009.

 

In fact, as you say, I think he had at one stage Larry expected a slide into an August low, if you had used Larry's dates and ideas alongside other trading indicators, you might have held off selling and caught the highs. Some have done exactly that, though I haven't found it easy myself -so jeen was I be short in case a "big event" arrived on the early side of an expected window.

 

Personally, I regard the astro-cycles as an imperfect tool, but a useful one nonetheless.

 

If you go back and listen to the 23.April podcast, and then see what actually happened, then you will clearly see the value. Do you think that Bloomberg, CNN, or Jim Cramer did better? I think not. I find that garbage much easier to dismiss than Larry's work, as flawed as it is.

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That is unfair, IMO. I think that Larry predictions are better than pure "hit or miss."

 

The TURNS work probably better than half the time - but with nowhere near 100% accuracy. And they sometimes pinpoint very important Turns precisely, as Larry did in late April 2010, early March 2009, and the big drop in the week of 5-9.Oct.2009.

 

In fact, as you say, I think he had at one stage Larry expected a slide into an August low, if you had used Larry's dates and ideas alongside other trading indicators, you might have held off selling and caught the highs. Some have done exactly that, though I haven't found it easy myself -so jeen was I be short in case a "big event" arrived on the early side of an expected window.

 

Personally, I regard the astro-cycles as an imperfect tool, but a useful one nonetheless.

 

If you go back and listen to the 23.April podcast, and then see what actually happened, then you will clearly see the value. Do you think that Bloomberg, CNN, or Jim Cramer did better? I think not. I find that garbage much easier to dismiss than Larry's work, as flawed as it is.

 

well for a start i wouldn't waste my time with cramer, doomberg or cnn anyway

 

i gave frizzers Larry July warning podcast a listen again the other day and it has to be said that the guy was very wrong notwithstanding his right calls in April

 

anyway, he may be more hit than miss granted and if he has made you more than he has cost you, then it obviously works for you

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anyway, he may be more hit than miss granted and if he has made you more than he has cost you, then it obviously works for you

He doesnt make or lose money for me. I take full responsibility for my own trades, and use his market calls,

as one of many inputs that I evaluate

 

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I'm not seeing this anywhere else, not sure about the reliability of the source

 

Hindenburg Omen Confirmed As Equities Slump

http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1281593340.php

 

The complex chart indicator known as a Hindenburg Omen occurred yesterday for the first time since the market lows of March 2009. This is a major chart indicator suggesting a market crash is imminent.

 

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I'm not seeing this anywhere else, not sure about the reliability of the source

 

Hindenburg Omen Confirmed As Equities Slump

http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1281593340.php

McHugh said it was "very close" yesterday - see above.

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hindenburg.jpg

 

It could be a disaster for the longs

 

Listen up:

== ==

 

McH's update:

 

We got a Hindenburg Omen observation Thursday, August 12th. All criteria were met.

Both NYSE New 52 Week Highs and New 52 Week Lows exceeded 2.2 percent of NYSE traded issues. The McClellan Oscillator is negative, and the 50 Day Moving Average is Rising. New 52 Week Highs were not more than twice New 52 Week Lows, so it all adds up to an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen observation Thursday. Once we get a second observation, we will have a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, which would mean the probability of markets crashing over the next few months would become far higher than is normally possible given random chance.

 

This would be only the second Hindenburg Omen since 2008, which of course led to the massive stock market crash in the autumn 2008. Our research shows that a stock market crash can occur as soon as the next day, or as far into the future as four months. Hindenburg Omens are very rare, as there have only been 27 confirmed H.O.s over the past 25 years.

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The Italians don't agree with McH;

 

Hindenburg.jpg

 

Looking around the internet there appears to be varying definitions of what does and does not constitute a Hindenburg omen.

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Freaky Friday

 

It’s Friday the 13th and markets blogs are buzzing about a so-called Hindenburg Omen that popped up yesterday on the NYSE.

 

From Wikipedia: “A Hindenburg Omen occurred on August 12th, 2010, the first since the market lows of 2009. One nearly occurred on August 11th, failing only in that 67 stocks hit new lows, rather than the required 69.”

 

FT Alphaville and others have picked up on the Zero Hedge post that flagged the bearish pattern.

 

“Currently we are facing weakening growth expectations globally, a debased U.S. currency, simultaneous concerns about near term deflation and longer horizon inflation, sky-high unemployment and crushing debt,” said Andrew Barber, strategist at Waverly Advisors, in an email. “If people need spooky stories to make them fear a market collapse then they are missing the forest for the trees.”

 

/see: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/etfblog/2010/.../freaky-friday/

 

 

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More "omens" : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/14/h...t_n_682175.html

 

one of the articles referenced:

 

'Hindenburg Omen' Sparks Stock Market Fears

 

Tyler Durden wrote, "It is time to batten down the hatches -- something big is coming." He also gave a quick summary of the Hindenburg Omen's "five criteria," or the observations that need to be made for it to be legitimate, noting that all five had occurred at Thursday's market close:

1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52-week highs and the daily number of new 52-week lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.

2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2 percent of 3,126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2 percent of the total issues.

3. That the NYSE 10-week moving average is rising.

4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.

5. That new 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52-week lows (however, it is fine for new 52-week Lows to be more than double new 52-week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory. McHugh, Ph.D.

 

"McHugh, Ph.D." refers to Robert McHugh, Ph.D., president and CEO of Main Line Investors Inc., a registered investment adviser in Pennsylvania who has written extensively on the subject of the Hindenburg Omen, noting that it has been frighteningly accurate at predicting the stock market's decline of 15 percent or more:

All the biggies over the past 21 years were identified by this signal (as defined with our five conditions). It was present and accounted for a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987, was there three trading days before the mini-crash panic of October 1989, showed up at the start of the 1990 recession, warned about trouble a few weeks prior to the L.T.C.M and Asian crises of 1998, announced that all was not right with the world after Y2K, telling us early 2000 was going to see a precipitous decline. The Hindenburg Omen gave us a three-month heads-up on 9/11, and told us we would see panic selling into an October 2002 low.

The problem? He wrote the above passage in 2006, after which no great sell-off, let alone a crash, occurred.

 

It's also worth pointing out here that while the omen has correctly predicted every big stock market swoon of the past two decades, including the terrible October 2008 decline that set the global economic recession into motion, not every Hindenburg Omen has been followed by a crash. Indeed, to resort to a geometry analogy: All rectangles are squares, but not all squares are rectangles. McHugh acknowledged as much in his 2006 report, writing, "Only one out of roughly 11.5 times will this signal fail."

 

/see: http://www.aolnews.com/surge-desk/article/...-blogs/19592361

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The Omen Grows - even the WSJ carried a story about it.

 

'Hindenburg Omen' Flashes

Technical Gauge and Its Creator Sense Stock Gloom;

BY STEVEN RUSSOLILLO AND TOMI KILGORE

Forget about Friday the 13th. Many on Wall Street took to whispering about an even scarier phenomenon—the "Hindenburg Omen."

 

The Omen, named after the famous German airship in 1937 that crashed in Lakehurst, N.J., is a technical indicator that foreshadows not just a bear market but a stock-market crash. Its creator, a blind mathematician named Jim Miekka, said his indicator is now predicting a market meltdown in September.

 

Wall Street has been abuzz about whether the Hindenburg Omen will come to bear, with some traders cautioning clients about the indicator and blogs pondering all the doom and gloom. But Andrew ...

 

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No signal - at the moment, it seems

 

zzzzi.png

/see: http://www.sentimentcharts.it/grpview.asp?...=404&id=539

 

Although, one site was flashing one a few weeks ago:

Bit selective don't you think, the quoted graph has many more, and they are both missing at least one:

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/20...buy-short-etfs/

The complex chart indicator known as a Hindenburg Omen occurred yesterday for the first time since the market lows of March 2009.

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McHugh put out a good study on the Hindenberg in 2005, and it says two Omens in rapid succession have a very high predictive rate. One does not. Watch for the second one

 

Posted by: Yelnick | Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 03:12 PM

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