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The Crash Scenario 2010 - A summary

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The Crash Scenario : Q3.2010 - A summary

Many stars and experts are forecasting a Q3 2010 crash

==========================================

 

001udk.jpg : LINK to here: http://tinyurl.com/crash2010

 

I am getting emails, like this one:

"Can you send me the link to your page with that crash scenario please"

...so I thought it might be useful to pull the various materials together in one place.

 

RISK WARNING:

I hasten to point out that no market movements are guaranteed, and so you should take appropriate precautions on any trades you might do related to this scenario - and that may mean risk controls, like: using stops, options, limited leveraged, and so forth. If you are not sure what this means, be doubly cautious and limit any exposure you may have to the crash scenario, long or short, to what you can readily afford to lose. Experience has taught me that even when everything lines up perfectly, there is still a reasonably high probability chance that nothing will happen, or sometimes even the opposite move of what you expect can occur.

 

Having said that, I am currently carrying my biggest short position in years, maybe ever... but I also have a high level of cash.

= = = = =

 

To minimise confusion, let me start with this:

2-3 Weeks ago, I had received a scary email (from a different source) about what might happen, and the email I received was targetting July 8th for a catastophic event. I started a thread about it, wherein I said: "I AGREE with much of it. But I have not been expecting a CRASH before August. I have been thinking that it might be triggered by an event in August, where we see the fallout in September and October - that is the normal seasonal pattern." I wanted to start the thread, in case I was missing something. In fact, as I pulled together research for that thread, I could not find any further support for July 8th as a key date, and now that date has come and gone, with nothing extarordinary to report.

 

WHAT LIES AHEAD?

I am currently aggressively short and worried about some adverse events which could lead to a market crash between now and October. I see several important vulnerabilities in the markets that leave me nervous - Mainly, I think we have had excess optimism about the global economy's chances if returning to normal. The reality is, that only ultra-low interest rates and a massive global stimulus program has restored the ILLUSION OF NORMALITY, and that illusion is about to come tumbling down, as the news turns negative and stock prices collapse.

 

On top of this, many intelligent market observers are highlighting Q3.2010 as the probably time window for a crash, these include:

 

+ Robert Prechter

+ Harry Dent

+ Arch Crawford & Larry Pesavento

+ Tom Obrien

+ Charles Nunner

+ Many others, who use various other forecasting tools

 

I will summarise the arguments of those listed above in later postings, but first I want to show some of my own work...

 

== ==

 

Tags: Stock Market Crash 2010 , 2010 Crash, Crash of 2010, August 2010 Crash, September 2010 Crash, Cardinal Climax

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Dr Bubb's argument

WHAT LIES AHEAD?

I am currently short and worried about some adverse events which could lead to a market crash between now and October. I see several important vulnearbilities in the markets that leave me nervous - Mainly, I think we have had excess optimism about the global economy's chances if returning to normal. The reality is, that only ultra-low interest rates and a massive global stimulus program has restored the ILLUSION OF NORMALITY, and that illusion is about to come tumbling down, as the news turns negative and stock prices collapse.

 

I have been expecting 2010 to be a bad year for some time, and back in 2009 and early 2010, I wrote several articles about Manic Swings, and the Coming Y-Shaped Depresssion for Financial Sense. My basic argument was that ultra-low interest rates were robbing savers,a nd forcing them to invest their money somewhere in pursuit of higher returns. The shift of funds into stocks, property, bonds, and precious metals has pushed asset prices to levels that are not justified by a poorly-performing economy.

 

Once the temporary buying from the "sugar rush" of low-rates and stimulus was done, prices would collapse back towards more normal levels.

 

Some key indicators that I am using, suggested that an important top was made in May 2010, and the stock market slide is beginning to get serious.

 

SPY / etf for S&P500 ... update

xxx.gif

 

The technical & fundamental indicators that most worried me were:

 

+ The high was made on a key Moving Average (MA), and now those MA's are rolling over

+ The volume in the rise was weak, and it is now heavier in the drop (a technique that Tom Obrien uses)

+ Year-on-year inflation rates are rising in most countries, and so are interest rates in the healhier countries

+ Leading Indicators are negative, and staying negative, and not improving as they were in the July 2009 stock market dip (thnx DD)

+ Some early warning signs like: commodity prices, LQD-to-TLT ratio, China Stocks, and the Baltic Dry Index turned down months ago, and they continue to fall

 

Despite all these negative indications, if you listen to most financial news, it seems to be afloat on a cloud of optimism, and expectations about earning prospects in the secong half of 2010 and beyoind seem way too high. The "moment realisation" may hit in the second half of July, and drive stocks lower for some time.

 

Finally, late last week, as we came into options expiry, the market made a Hanging man formation, and that seemed to fit right in, making a perfect fractal comparison with the Oct. 6th, 1987 Hanging Man, and the big drop which followed inb on October 7th, 1987 (see below). I noticed this interesting comparison before the market opened last Friday. The market was still expected to open higher, and the big -2.97% drop in the SPX on Friday caught many less-historically minded traders by surprise.

 

October 1987 chart

spxhm.gif

/source: DrB's Diary, post #173 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....0476&st=160

 

I am not saying the Stocks must fall as far and as fast as in 1987, but I do think that a serious correction lies dead ahead.

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Robert Prechter, and EWI

 

001dk.jpg

RP thinks a sharp 3rd of Wave 3 drop may lie dead ahead...

 

ewi2.png

 

impulse-waves.jpg

 

Prechter's 2010 Prediction on Bloomberg : http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/2010_sto...t_forecast.html

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Harry Dent

 

harry-dent_01.jpg

HD uses demographics, and he thinks that baby boomers retiring and exiting the economy, will undermine it quickly, and lead to one of the sharpest drops in US history, probably within the second half of 2010.

 

Video:

== ==

 

A Crash Scenario for Late 2010

 

Last Thursday's nearly 1,000-point decline in the Dow Industrial during the trading session was no ...

 

The last time I caught up with Dent was in February when he predicted the Greek and European debt crises would get progressively worse and that the stock market would run into hurricane weather in May. He was right on.

 

His update on the European crisis: the markets are still in total denial about the total amount of debt in the developed countries and the ability of governments to bail out and guaranty everything. They simply can't, he says. Now we have the European version of TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) -- another $1 trillion in stimulus and rescue. Where does it end?

 

Dent, the editor of HS Dent Forecast, a monthly newsletter out of Tampa, Fla., looks for economic and geopolitical, and possibly even geological, challenges to continue to occur, and eventually our bail-out programs will not be able to respond. This is very likely to start to happen, he says, between July and August, and that will finally kill the "debt denial."

 

Addressing himself to what he regards as the most worrisome U.S. issue, burgeoning debt -- $14 trillion in government debt and $42 trillion in national debt, of which $17 trillion is in the financial sector alone, in turn creating unprecedented leverage in investments, Dent figures once the markets wake up to the total amount outstanding and recognize the fact that it cannot be sustained, there will be rapid deleveraging.

 

A contrarian and bearish as the dickens, he also takes a dim view of our economic scene. In contrast to many economists, who are looking for 3% to 3.5% GDP growth this year, Dent expects the economic roof to cave in around year end, with GDP turning negative between the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, and then worsening after that.

 

His chief reasoning: Serious mortgage delinquencies will continue to go straight up, meaning home prices will not come back and banks will be struck with massive loan defaults; baby boomer spending, which peaked between late 2007 and early 2010, will falter badly, and unemployment, now 9.9%, will shoot up to 15%.

 

/more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-dorfman/...e_b_573503.html

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Arch Crawford and Larry Pesavento

 

AC and LP both use "astro-cycles" and other technical indicators to forecast stock movements.

 

0307adviserqa_175x200.jpg

Arch Crawford sees the "most important planetary alignment in human history" on July 28 - August 1st, and he thinks that some sort of adverse "event" may be associated with this, and it could trigger a crash within days, or following the event.

 

+ AC on MarketViews--- : http://audio.marketviews.tv/audiofiles/synd/crawford29.mp3

+ AC on Financial Sense : http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broa...2010-0703-3.mp3 (40 mins in)

+ AC on Goldseek Radio : http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/crawford07.14.10.mp3

 

/see also, another GEI thread:

Arch Crawford predicts a catastrophe this summer, He uses technical analysis and astrology:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9644

 

== == ==

 

larrysuit.gif

Larry Pesavento expects a big slide into the next major turn date of 10-12 August. He counts 17 planetary bodies all lining up.

 

LP's Interview on Frisby's Bulls and Bears:

17 Planets In A Row: Beware August 10-12! : http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2010/07/...e-august-10-12/

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Tom Obrien

 

001dm.jpg

TO'B uses volume to predict stock market action. He has been talking for months about how the weak volume in 2009's raly would make it easier to retrace that long upmove. He notes that market falls in 2010 have come on heavier volume, and in mid-July 2010, the market was again set up for a big drop

 

SPY with Volume ... update

spy200810.gif

...

Earnings Halts Market Rally :

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4287622/ear...aylist_id=87185

Tom O'Brien of Market Insights breaks down earnings season and the impact of quarterly numbers on the economy.

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Charles Nenner

 

charles-nenner-picture3.jpg

A professor based in Holland, Nenner uses his research into past cyclical market turns, to build a projection of future ups and downs in the market. And ex-employee in the research department of Goldman Sachs, He has some excellent market calls to his credit.

 

Video:

Get Ready for Dow 5,000: Market Forecaster (Nenner)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1544558215&play=1

 

"Stocks will peak in about a month, and then head south..."

 

/"Nenner Predicts" thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=10592

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Others, like JG Savoldi ...

 

big_pic.png

Savoldi likes to make some dramatic market calls, like Apple to $45 within 2011-12. He also sees a big drop in stocks in the immediate future, and is especially aware of the "fractal similarity with 1987."

 

He Twitters as BAM:

: http://twitter.com/BAMinvestor : http://twitter.com/BAMtrader (protected)

 

Recent Savoldi interviews:

1: http://bit.ly/bQSk40 - July 1st

2: http://bit.ly/cteV6l - July 14th

 

WS Shuffle podcasts :: http://thewallstreetshuffle.com/podcasts.shtml

 

OTHER NOTABLE BEARS :::

================

+ Robin Griffiths, see thread, KWN & below (post #10) - thanks, LittleDavesAB

+ Fred Harrison, who wrote a book: The Crash of 2010

+ Mish Shedlock, see below

+ Gerald Celente : http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/03/23/g...-crash-of-2010/

+ Ian Gordon, the Long Wave Analyst

+ Bud Kress, see thread, who expects a major low in 2012-14

+ David Rovelli, Canaccord Genuity - interviewed on Bloomberg (today)

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MONTHS from the Top - Latest drop starts Aug. 2000

 

001z.jpg

 

The above chart goes with this one

001g.jpg

 

Perhaps that "Target" will be reached in 2012-14, if Charles Nenner's work proves accurate.

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Think you can add

 

Robin Griffiths Interview/ Friday, June 25, 2010

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews..._Griffiths.html

Robin Griffiths is Cazenove Capital Management’s Private Wealth Strategist - Robin has 44 years investment experience and is considered to be one of the top strategists in the world.

 

Thought he was quite good on KWN

 

In edit:

The West has been in a secular downturn since the year 2000. We are in the Kondratief winter phase, which last occurred in the 1930's.

. . .

The S&P500 index might rally until early August but resistance at 1150 will remain unbroken. It will then drop back to 940 in October. We would then rally through to March 2011. In a normal year that rally would last until late May. There is little chance of that this time. The double dip will follow and the index will re-test the lows of March 2009.

 

Although we are now in the phase that is equivalent to the depression years, it may be that the economy bumps along with low growth in the 1-2% range. This would be our best-case scenario.

 

America must learn once more to be prudent, frugal and hard working. It must start exporting again and be competitive. It must stop living on borrowed money and hand outs. It has shown before that when the going gets tough, the tough get going.

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Mish Shedlock is also bearish.

 

I believe that he has a target of SPX 400-500, and that's because he is looking at EARNINGS and realises that many analysts are busy fooling themselves and their clients:

 

Forward S&P 500 earnings estimates are outrageously optimistic as noted in Hussman on Misallocating Resources, Market Valuations, Earnings Estimates, and Public Policy.

 

Reasons for Nonsensical Earnings Estimates

 

+ Analysts do not do their homework on what is really happening and why. Instead they see rising earnings and take them at face value, nearly always figuring following quarters will be better yet.

+ Analysts do not understand the dynamics of debt deflation, peak credit, the baby boomer retirement dynamics, etc. In short, Analysts do not understand the global macro picture is bleak.

+ Analysts look at a steep yield curve and think the Fed can lift the economy.

+ Analysts have not yet caught on to the fact that consumer spending and bank lending attitudes have changed for good.

+ Analysts in general have a vested interest in getting the public to buy stocks, annuities, etc. because that is how they make money.

 

US Banking Earnings are a Sham

 

/see his recent Blog posting: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

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001g.jpg

 

This is one of the few things I have seen or read that convinces me that a breach of the March 2009 lows is likely.

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This is one of the few things I have seen or read that convinces me that a breach of the March 2009 lows is likely.

Indeed.

SPX-666 was only back to "mid-channel".

I am trying to work out what the bottom the channel would be...

 

I suppose that since the Peak was about 2x SPX, then the low might be half of SPX-666, ie: SPX-333.

And it may be fair to adjust that figure upwards with inflation: so maybe SPX 333-400?

 

SPX chart ... raw chart : 1990-2012 : 2000-2012

001r.gif

 

That future low, would be ABOVE the low just after the Oct. 1987 Crash : Oct.19. 1987 = SPX-224.83

 

Meantime, if SPX-1000 is taken out, stocks could easily fall to SPX-800 or lower fairly quickly .. update

001t.gif

 

spy .. update : 1yr-SPY : 6mo-SPY : 3mo-SPY

001t.gif

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Another interview (16 July?) with Arch Crawford

End of civilisation as we know it?

Short and scary, especially the interviewers eyes.

 

This may or may not be relevant...

 

Monster sunspot groups appear on the Sun!

 

Phil Plait, the creator of Bad Astronomy, is an astronomer, lecturer, and author. After ten years working on Hubble Space Telescope and six more working on astronomy education, he struck out on his own as a writer. He has written two books, dozens of magazine articles, and 12 bazillion blog articles.

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(I still need to check these links):

 

Check this video out -- The 1929 Crash Vs. the Coming Stock Market Crash

http://bit.ly/nImST - per JG Savoldi (a few months early?)

 

1:40 AM Oct 1st, 2009 via web

http://bit.ly/3xxVqx via @addthis

 

9:15 PM Sep 23rd, 2009 via web

The Disco is on Fire! Will you make it to the exit? http://bit.ly/2jLh36 via @AddToAny

3:08 AM Sep 23rd, 2009

50 Percent Crash Coming for Stock Market? Hedge Fund Financial Model Shares Predictions on Twitter for Free - http://shar.es/1rd1x

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Louise Yamada remains Cautious, expects further downside

 

July 12, 2010: Pimm Fox interviews Louise on Bloomberg Radio's Taking Stock.

 

Topics include the character of recent equity market rallies, the relationship between gold and interest rates, importance of preservation of capital, risk as related to the AAA Treasury premium, and the current movement of assets from mutual funds into bond funds. Podcast of the interview is available a:t bloomberg.com/podcasts/taking-stock

 

http://www.lyadvisors.com/recentevents.htm

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Yesterday once more? - Is it 1937?

 

In 1937 the economy was in a strong recovery from a severe crisis, and there was complacency that the worst was over -- much like the exuberance about a "V-shaped' recovery this April. But after 1937 the economy relapsed into what historians call "the recession within the Depression," a downturn so severe that in any other context it would qualify as a depression itself.

 

It was triggered by a set of very specific policy mistakes. The Fed tightened by raising reserve requirements. Consumers were hit with new taxes to pay for the then-new Social Security program. Worried about excessive deficits, Roosevelt cut government spending. At the same time, his administration accelerated antibusiness rhetoric and regulation.

 

Sound familiar? We're repeating some of the same mistakes right now, even as fears of a "double dip" recession mount

 

/source: http://trendmacro.com/a/luskin/20100709luskinWSJ.asp

20100709wsj.jpg

 

SPY ... update

xxxsu.gif

OTHER MARKETS - Same Period

 

Japan's Nikkei 225 / JP:1804610 ... update

zzzzhq.gif

 

FTSE/Xinhua A50 China Tracker / HK:2823 ... update

xxxf.gif

 

Hong Kong's Hang Seng / HK:1804580 ... update

xxxq.gif

 

UK's FTSE-100 / UK:UKX ... update

zzzzw.gif

 

Germany's DAX / Germ:DAX ... update

xxxp.gif

 

SPAIN vs. GREECE : 1yr-Bovespa-vs-ASE-20 : 3mo.BvsA20

 

Spain's Bovespa / XX:INDX ... 3yr-W : 3yr-D : 1yr-D : 6mos-D

xxxi.gif

 

Greece's ASE-20 / XX:FTSE ... 3yr-Wk : 3yr-D : 1yr-D : 6mo-D

xxxlz.gif

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... from DrBubb's diary today ...

 

Yeah, gold taking a beating, and the gains of today on equities markets are being wiped out. If this reversal stays in place, it could well mark a short term turning point. I've tightened my stops on my US Builder positions and am contemplating a shorting the market.

Edit: Today looks a good day to go short, so I've opened short FTSE position. Stoploss @ 5397.

A really lovely reversal, and at one of the key resistance levels. ... update

zzzze.gif

 

This could be a classic turn, and after many shorts were covered, and former bulls "gained confidence",

and jumped back with longs.

 

FTSE and DAX seem to be giving up their gains too.

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001g.jpg

 

This is one of the few things I have seen or read that convinces me that a breach of the March 2009 lows is likely.

.

But don't forget - the gold standard was abandoned in the early 70's. After this, money lost its value at a far quicker rate, and so the trend line for the stock markets should increase substantially.

 

In short - those trend lines mean nothing after 1970, and following them will cause you to be far too pessimistic.

 

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THE PERILS OF PREDICTING in an Internet World

 

Sadly, (Dent) has now gone down in my estimations after seeing this :(

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D2RzRoQI7g

 

He's right in what he says about demographics, but that's not a precise art that you can use to predict when peaks and troughs are going to come with any accuracy. The guy at the end is wrong because you can predict where peaks and troughs are going to come with some precision since there is an opposite and equal effect in stock markets based on time.

Harry Dent said:

"If we dont see the Dow approaching a new high, we may have missed something.

2005-2009 may be one of the strongest markets we have seen."

 

The narrator said: "Mr Dent did not correctly predict market direction!"

 

Let's see: ... INDU update :

 

zzzz.gif

 

I see a 40% gain there. And, if I am not mistaken, Dent later spotted the potential for a crash in 2008.

 

Clearly, Dent got the magnitude of the rally wrong, but I think the narration was also wrong, and the attack was framed on the (wrongly forecast) magnitude, but he ignored that Dent had the 2004/5 to 2008 direction right.

 

BTW, I wouldn't invest a dime with Markowitz. I might with Dent. How about you?

 

As the narrator said about Dent, I am "calling out" the narrator, on his flawed narration!

 

All who have tried it soon learn that Investing-on-Predictions is an imperfect science. If you make money overall on a series of such investments, you are doing pretty well. To expect perfection is unrealistic. I (we?) strive to be excellent, but do not aim for perfection.

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.

But don't forget - the gold standard was abandoned in the early 70's. After this, money lost its value at a far quicker rate, and so the trend line for the stock markets should increase substantially.

 

In short - those trend lines mean nothing after 1970, and following them will cause you to be far too pessimistic.

Our money may not be backed by gold but it is backed by something; by debt, which hangs as a millstone around the neck of each and every person that signs up for it. Not really just "paper" money after all.... but debt money.

 

And if debt is to be written off, so too is capital.

 

Prices can be a lot more unstable with debt money.... usually to the upside. But the real scary thing about debt money is prices can also be unstable to the downside... in a debt deflation. :o

 

The bankers may be wishing they were on gold backed currency by the time this is through.

 

edit

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In edit: The FOLLOWING comments, from RomansHoliday & D2...

 

are more relevant on the other thread, so I have moved them to: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....20&start=20

 

There’s more bad debt out there than the Fed could possibly handle. And not only that, I want to make one more point: Even if the Fed monetizes old bonds that people thought were good, that doesn't change the net supply of money plus credit. It simply changes credit into money, so I don't think that that necessarily creates inflation. Under a robust economy it does, because those dollars can be re-lent. But if nobody wants to borrow, if nobody can borrow, there's still no net inflation

 

Do banks need to lend to ensure survival? I think so.

 

Governments have publicly shown they are aware of this in the move towards austerity [at his stage probably more talk than action... yet the process has started]. There are also mass political movements growing that are angered by the debt problem.... once again this is about reducing public debt.

 

Show us one mass political movement angered by debt problem? when you say mass it has to on the scale of American war against slavery, the quit india movement. Some obscure tea party is not called a 'huge' mass movement.

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I quote my favorite stock market Blogger here:

JOBS : MARKET EXPECTS:

Non-farm payrolls - 65K

Unemployment : 9.6%

- Is QE2 coming, if the numbers don't look good?

 

== ==

 

Meantime, Yelnick says:

 

A Top of Sorts is Near

 

Today was my turn date, which means a top this week.This might be it, or just an interim stop before we get back to the Sp1150-75 area. Turn dates are chancy things, and it appears to me that we have more upside, in part because I think we get back to Sp1150 before falling, and also because I expect the Dollar to reverse at about the same time. It has retraced 57% of the rise in the Dollar Index, and should be expected to go a bit farther, to the 62% area, before bouncing.

 

The stock top and Dollar bottom may resolve this week. Friday has the unemployment report, and it will be watched for guidance on the economy after the mixed GDP report last Friday (which is likely to be revised down from 2.4% to 1.7% given poor news on durables Monday). The STU thinks after the 8:30a pronouncement, market sentiment may break, beginning the fall.

 

As you might expect, the STU thinks the top is nigh based on wave structure. This chart excerpted from Daneric shows the recent pattern: a triangle fourth wave and the fifth wave thrust out of it. The thrust has gone back to 62% retrace in the Dow, but is below that in the S&P. A thrust the width of the triangle is normal, and targets near 1140, which is the 62% retrace given a bottom at the low point (1011 on Jul2).

 

In my Big Tease count, and the STU count, the low point is May25 at 1040, giving a target of 1151. Look for a thrust to 1140-1150 range in the next two days.

 

/more: http://yelnick.typepad.com/

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WHY START THIS THREAD ?

 

... this is from the Larry is Back on FBB thread ...

 

Dr Bubb,

Without doubting the ability of Larry P or even your own innate ability to make money in a market, I do wonder if you have read ' fooled by randomness' If you have, I would like your opinion about this book. If you have not yet read it, could I suggest you read it.

I have met Taib, and read two of his books.

 

The fact that the astro-cycle forecasts do "not work" sometimes does not mean that they are merely of "random value".

 

Taib lost money for years, and has written his interesting and complex books as a means of forging a new career as a philospher, rather than a trader betting on "Balch Swan" events.

 

2008 was certainly not a "Black Swan." it was highly predictable, and the Black Swan labelled was only being used by thsoe who were too blinded by greed or their own stupidity to see the debt problems coming.

 

Astrologers like Ray Merriman signalled the problems years ahead:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=10740

 

And so many others - myself included, in hundreds of postings here and on HousePriceCrash.co.uk, and in articles like these:

 

Oct. 2005 / Lessons of Grandparents:

http://www.financialsensearchive.com/fsu/e.../2005/1003.html

 

Nov. 2004 / The Smoking Gun (Fannie & Freddie)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...?showtopic=2943

(First posted on a website I founded, called DebtBubble.com, which was from whence my web-name, "DrBubb" was derived.)

 

paint_corner.jpg

 

The fact that we have let the mainstream media purpetrate the Big Lie that the Debt Crisis was not predictable simply shows the moral bankruptcy apparent in the main media, which has become nothing more than an advertising vehicle for corpoarte America.

 

I am trying to show that a Q3-Crash is coming, and that it would have been hard to miss, if you were paying attention to many useful sources on the web, including this website, GlobalEdgeInvestors.

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