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drbubb

GPC UK Data bank / & "Bull Trap podcast"

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The rightmove index is ridiculously volatile.

Best Ignore it.

 

Maybe. Maybe not.

 

Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index

- versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index

 

gpkfpc.png

 

Useless ?

The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London

prices in 2008-2009.

 

Useful ?

Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are

seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them.

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From the UK Property: Intelligent Design? thread

 

Is Intelligent Design between the final rally in London property?

 

They can sell their overpriced property in London,

and buy something larger and newer for half price in Chichester* (or whatever - outside London),

and retire there.

 

There's a record "edge" available in the trade right now, since

the Ratio of London to The-Rest-of-the-UK is at all-time highs of 335%

 

ukhaliwratio.png: see- Latest

 

 

Data / Index----- : Feb. 2013 : Mar.2013 : Apr.2013 :

Rmv: Gr.London : £486,298 : £496,298 : £493,635 :

Hali-Wide, all UK : £162,011 : £164,280 :

Rest-of-the-UK-- : £146,748 : £148,259 :

Ratio: GrL / Rest : R - 331% : R - 335% :

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UPDATING ...

 

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2013

J. : : 229,429 : 480,890 : 144,748 : = N/A = / 162,245 = n/a = 162,844 160,613 : £161,429 : - 0.40% : 142.1% :

F. : : 235,741 : 486,298 : 146,748 : = N/A = / 162,638 = n/a = 163,600 162,011 : £162,325 : +0.56% : 145.3% :

M : : 239,710 : 496,298 : 148,259 : = N/A = / 164,630 = n/a = 163,943 163,930 : £164,280 : +1.20% : 145.9% :

A : : 244,706 : 493,635 : 151,518 : = N/A = / 165,586 = n/a = 166,175 167,026 : £166,745 : +1.50% : 146.8% :

M : : 249,841 : 509,870 : 153,391 : = N/A = / 167,912 = n/a = 166,898 167,831 : £167,898 : +0.68% : 148.8% :

J. : : 252,798 : 515,243 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 168,941 = n/a = 167.984 170,184 : £169,563 : +0.99% : 149.1% :

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

Jl : :

A. : :

S. : :

O : :

N : :

D : :

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2014

J. : :

F. : :

M : :

A : :

M : :

J. : : 252,XXX : 515,243 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 168,941 = n/a = 167.984 170,184 : £169,563 : +0.99% : 149.1% :

Jl : :

A. : :

S. : :

O : :

N : :

D : :

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

==========================================

mom:+1.18% : +1.05% :: Est. DI : : 149.1% / +0.61% = n/a = : +0.44% : +0.48% : +0.99% :

===

Tags: Halifax, Nationwide Index, SA Seasonally Adjusted, NSA, Bull Trap, UKtrap

Links: Halifax : Nationwide :Rightmove : Hometrack : Home.co.uk : KnFr-PrimeC

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UK HousePriceCrash "hopes":

 

"London is estimated to go down by 3.6% this year, the FT reporting that prime property sales are down by 80%..."

 

> HPC-#6604:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/195761-is-prime-london-crashing/page-441

 

But the Barratt bellwether is not yet in harmony with the Bears ... update

 

BDEV_zps1agdmphl.gif

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LONDON Property : Better than Gold !

 

(original : Jan. 2011 post)

HOUSING Valuations:
========
UK House (H&N Index - Dec.10): ............ GBP-162,131 = 0.480 GB (or 2.08 houses per GB)
US House (CSX20 - Sep.10-147.49 x $1300 : $191,737 = 0.359 GB ( 2.78 Hs. per GB)
HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 88.29 x 10,000): ....... HK$8.83 mn = 2.125 GB (or x.x Hs/GB) HK/ 7.78 = US$1.135mn
Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): .......... US$490,200 = 0.928 GB

========

 

LondonHouse3_zpsp2mvq3lv.jpg

 

(updated : May 2015):

 

Mo: Rt'move : London: H&Nindex: mom : $Gold : 400oz : GBP/$ : GB-Gb : Lon-Gb : H&N-Gb

2010

J : : 222,261 : 407,731 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : £162,131 :- 0.74% : $1,316 : $526.4k : $1.58 : 333.2k : 1.225GB : 0.487GB

2011-peak

Aug 231,543 : 418,008 : £163,995 :- 0.74% : $1,850 : $740.0k : $1.63 : 454.0k : 0.921GB : 0.361GB

2015-now

M : : 281,752 : 580,308 : £191,212 :+0.55% : $1,180 : $472.0k : $1.49 : 316.8k : 1.832GB : 0.603GB

A. : : 286,133*: 594,585* £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,200 : $480.0k : $1.52 : 315.8k : 1.885GB : 0.0??GB

M : : 000,??0 : 000,??0 : £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,191 : $476.4k : $1.52 : 313.4k :

===

*All Time High

== : Halifax : Nat'wide : H&Nindex:

D : : 189,304 : 188,559 : £188,932 :

J. : : 192,954 : 188,446 : £190,700 : +0.94% :

F. : : 192,372 : 187,964 : £190,168 : - 0.28% :

M : : 192,970*: 189,454 : £191,212*: +0.55% :

A. : : 000,??0 : 193,048*: £000,000 :

===

 

Wow !

Almost 2 Gold Bars (400 oz) are needed - actual 1.885 Gb's - to Buy an Average London House

And the H&N Index house rose from 0.361GB to 0.603GB, that's +67.0% since Aug. 2011

 

> thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=13683

 

LondonHouse3b_zpsbri5p1ui.jpg

 

HOUSING VALUATIONS - at Q1-2015:

London House (Rightmove - Mar.15):..... GBP-594,585 = 1.832 GB

UK House (H&N Index - Mar.15): ............. GBP-191,212 = 0.603 GB (or 1.66 houses per Gold-Bar)
US House (CSX20 - Feb.15-173.67 x $1300 : $225,771 = 0.470 GB ( 2.12 Hs. per GB)
HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 141.2 x 10,000): ...... HK$14.12 mn = 3.796 GB (or 0.26 Hs/GB) HK/7.75 = US$1.822mn
Manila 2BR (PHP8.0 milllion/44.7 ): .......... US$179,000 = 0.373 GB (or 2.43 Hs/GB)
(based on $1,200 x 400= $480k)

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This chart from last year - and its wave count had it right about a major peak near 670p...

 

A long last, Barratt may be rolling over - but I await a confirmation

 

BDEV... update: Last: 569P ... PSN-5-yrs / Last: 18.44

 

BDEV-5yr_zpsnzbxq6gh.gif

 

Since then, what has happened? A HUGE fall in BDEV's share price

 

For those who say Brexit does not matter...
Barratt shareholders may disagree. The share price took a swan dive as the Brexit vote happened, and there remains a lot of ground to be made up,

if it is going to regain the old price levels.

BDEV ... 5-years : Last: 349.10 (7/7/2016)
BDEV_zps1zlvwnfe.gif

In fact, we may see 300p, or even 150p before we see 600p again. And this chart may be giving a very negative prognosis for the next 2-3 years in the London and UK property market

 

*chart was updated, with comment:

"GBP may or may not get to $1.20, and if it does, it may not stop there.
So I make smaller trades, and use options, until the level looks right, and the price looks right.
I might buy something in the property sector at $1.20, such as Barratt / BDEV, but only if both charts look right then.

Right now, BDEV is sliding: With a recent Low 326P, it is about 50% off its 673P high.

Right now, It would not be surprising to see a decent bounce off that low - since 50% is often a key support level. But I do not think 326P will be a major low, unless it is successfully retested, and it holds

 

The 50% drop in Barratt shares does not bode well for UK property, and especially London property. I recommend people stay away from buying London property for months or years, no matter what the Property agents may be telling you. As them to post their opinions or comments in a public forum like this, and we can see what their track record is. Mine is not hard to find. (I am sometimes wrong, but my views are researched, independent, and right often enough for me to not be afraid of scrutiny.)

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