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GPC UK Data bank / & "Bull Trap podcast"

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BARRATT / BDEV is vulnerable ... update

 

BDEV2011.gif.jpg

 

... as is the UK Property market

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We Have SEEN...  

Old Poll on HPC : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=109612

At April 2009 - 50% saw no bounce in the UK. Only 3 people (3%) said that the low was in place.

People expected house prices would continue. Few people saw any signs to an upturn.

THAT was at the 2009 LOW - 97% said No bounce coming.

 

A Quote from NOW:

The Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker monitors public sentiment towards the UK housing market and the results showed one in three people predict average UK house prices to rise this year.

 

On the flipside, 23% expect a fall. The rest sat on the fence.

 

Halifax says, this means, on balance, more people in Britain think house prices will rise than fall, revealing a positive House Price Outlook Score of +9 percentage points.

 

Whether prices rise or fall the majority believe that any house price movement over the next year will be relatively small - 57% expect any change to be between +5% and -5%.

 

A quarter believe there will be more significant changes in house prices, with increases and decreases of 5% or more.

 

The survey also showed that half of respondents think it would be a good time to buy over the next three months – this is more than three times the number that felt it would be a good time to sell (14%).

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=536533&in_page_id=57#ixzz1OwnnpOqF

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/http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=536533&in_page_id=57#ixzz1OwnnpOqF

 

also on that website, news of how much mortgage availability has changed:

 

. . . City watchdog the Financial Services Authority (FSA) is making sweeping reforms to the way banks and building societies approve mortgages. Borrowers will face far more detailed checks on whether they can afford to repay their loan.

 

Although the rules are not official yet, most of the High Street's biggest lenders have already adopted a tougher approach, fearing the wrath of the FSA.

 

Trade body the Council of Mortgage Lenders estimates 3.2m of the six million people who took out a mortgage since 2005 would not be able to get a new deal because of these changes.

 

But Money Mail estimates, based on the latest figures, suggest this could be several hundred thousand more, equating to 30% of the UK's 11.4 million mortgage holders.

 

Many are being barred from taking some of the lowest interest rates in history.

 

shocking to think that more than half of the people who got mortgages since 2005 are not able to get a new deal.

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also on that website, news of how much mortgage availability has changed:

shocking to think that more than half of the people who got mortgages since 2005 are not able to get a new deal.

The banks must realise now, many of those mortgages were excessive, or should not have been granted at all

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The banks must realise now, many of those mortgages were excessive, or should not have been granted at all

 

I agree. It seems very tough going for people looking to get mortgages now.

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LIMPING IS NOT "SURGING"

 

Constant unassailable propaganda to the masses.

I had to look twice - since that headline made little sense to me after reading recently in Rightmove that asking prices had fallen by more than 1% in July in both London and throughout the country

 

HseGain2.jpg

 

The later version of the paper - shown above - was no more enlightening...

 

BRITAIN’S housing market is bouncing back with average prices rising by more than £5,000.

In a welcome sign that home values are proving to be remarkably resilient in the economic downturn, experts last night said it showed that the “property market is back on the right track”.

 

According to the latest figures, prices have shot up by £30 a day in the first half of the year.

And with interest rates set to remain at record lows for possibly three more years, rising values will mean that fewer households will be trapped in negative equity.

 

The cost of the typical three-bedroom semi is now £216,260 – £5,478 higher than January.

And the good news is that the buoyant property market is being enjoyed across the country with eight out of 11 regions reporting rises since the beginning of the year.

 

Nicholas Leeming, business development director of property website Zoopla.co.uk, which published the data, said: “The property market is back on the right track with the majority of regions having clawed back some of the ground lost at the end of last year.”

The property market is back on the right track

 

Other experts said prices were likely to be stable over the next year with low interest rates and demand for property outstripping supply which is driving the market. Mr Leeming said that London was leading the pack with average prices now hitting their highest levels since January 2009.

 

/more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/261168/House-prices-surge-again

== == ==

 

I don't have any idea of Zoopla's track record, or when or how it surveys and records prices.

 

What they have just reported is a gain of £5,478, from £210,782 to £216,260 – that's +2.60% - since January.

 

I assume that's for January, to July, a six month's period, which means +0.43% a month. Frankly, that's not the sort of gain that I would call "surging," it is more like limping ahead.

For January to June, Rightmove reported a £17,272 gain, which was from £223,122 to £240,394, or 7.74%- a proper surge, before reporting the most recent month's £3,797 fall. That's a -1.58% drop for the latest month into July.

 

Does the Express really serve their reader's by reporting in a less careful fashion?

 

The mainstream press does a rather poor job of reporting these figures. They toss out a headline, and never bother to do any analysis of the statistics behind the headlines. And many UK sheeple are stupid enough to simply believe the headlines. They will get what they deserve in the end. And I do not mean healthy profits.

 

(I do hope that readers here appreciate the care I take in collecting various price figures here, and analysing them with greater care than you may find anywhere else. It has helped me to get a sense of how the mainstream press is continually manipulating people, who seem confused by the blizzard of data and thus rely merely on headlines to support whatever emotional position they may be inclined towards.)

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Does the Express really serve their reader's by reporting in a less careful fashion?

 

The mainstream press does a rather poor job of reporting these figures. They toss out a headline, and never bother to do any analysis of the statistics behind the headlines. And many UK sheeple are stupid enough to simply believe the headlines. They will get what they deserve in the end. And I do not mean healthy profits.

 

(I do hope that readers here appreciate the care I take in collecting various price figures here, and analysing them with greater care than you may find anywhere else. It has helped me to get a sense of how the mainstream press is continually manipulating people, who seem confused by the blizzard of data and thus rely merely on headlines to support whatever emotional position they may be inclined towards.)

LOL : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=167051

 

"Daily Express Front Page - a true arsewipe of a paper"

 

It is funny to read the thread, and see the clumsy way in which posters on HPC fumble about with the data - while not wanting to believe it. They seem incapable of working out the monthly average change (+0.43%), and seeing how pathetic it is. They also do not seem to realise that Rightmove's data is the most recent - it is based on asking prices, and therefore can be somewhat forward looking at a downwards inflection point. (I reckon that big cuts in "asking" price are a pretty good indicator of a market headed lower.)

 

Someday someone here may be to benefit by selling property to a HPC flumbler, who thinks prices are still rising, simply because they haven't taken the time to understand the data presented in their tabloid newspapers.

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OUTSIDE LONDON PRICES - see below

=======

 

I want to REPLACE THE HOMETRACK house price column (third from the left) ...

 

GPC - DATA bank: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009:

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?

2009

J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 158,200 - 1.0% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%

F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 157,000 - 0.8% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW

M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 156,100* -0.6% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%

A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 155,600* -0.3% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%

M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 155,600*+0.0% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%

J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 155,650 +X.X% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%

Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 155,650 +X.X% / 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6%

A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 155,806 +0.1% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3%

S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%

O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+0.24% :140.6% : RM HIGH

N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 156,743 +0.2% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9%

D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5%

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 156,116 - 0.5% / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH

F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 156,584 +0.3% / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%

M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 157,054 +0.3% / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%

A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 157,368 +0.2% / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 157,682 +0.2% / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 158,700*+0.1% / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 158,500 - 0.1% / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,200 - 0.3% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,600*-0.4% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1%

O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 156,200* 0.9% / 164,279 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,777 :- 0.25% :143.7% : Hi Delus.

N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 155,575 - 0.4% / 163,133 = n/a = 164,708 163,268 : £163,201 :- 0.96% :140.5% :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 155,100 - 0.3% / 162,249 = n/a = 162,435 161,498 : £161,874 :- 0.81% :137.4% :

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 +0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 153,700 - 0.1% / 167,208 = n/a = 160,519 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :

J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 153,550 - 0.1% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,049 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :

Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 153,400 - 0.1% / 168,731 = n/a =

=====================================

mom: - 1.58% : - 1.36% : Est.DI: 142.6% / +0.31% = n/a = :+1.58% :+0.80% : + 0.70%

 

*Actual figure Hometrack index; others are calculated from mom changes.

Criteria for indices : http://www.houseprice.org.uk/articles/house-price-indices

Comparison of Criteria : http://firstrung.co.uk/page.asp?pagekey=115

Other : http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/acadHousePrices.php

 

===

Tags: Halifax, Nationwide Index, SA Seasonally Adjusted, NSA, Bull Trap, UKtrap

 

Links: Halifax : Nationwide :Rightmove : Hometrack : Home.co.uk

... with my own calculation of "outside London" prices

CHART

No Crash ? It really depends on where you live.

UknonLondon.gif.jpg

 

Peak : 166,265 - Sep.2007

Low- : 120,616 - Mar.2009 : - 27.5%

Rally : 135,331 - Aug.2010 : +12.2%

Latest 128,737 - Jun.2011 :: Down from the high : - 22.6% / -GBP 37,528

 

This certainly looks like an ongoing crash to me. Over 17 months, prices-outside-London retraced only 32.2% of their GBP 45,649 drop.

Yes, London is different - but London's day is coming too, I reckon.

Meantime, only about 12% of the UK's houses are in London, so the above chart represents reality for about 88% of UK homeowners.

 

How is my calculation of "outside London prices" done ?

 

I assume that there are 25 million homes in all of Britain, and only 3 million homes in London - that's 12% of the total.

 

I then multiply the 25 Million x the average price (per the H&N index)

and then subtract 3 million x the Rightmove asking price for London

= this leaves me the notional value of the 22 million homes in the rest of the UK.

 

How is my calculation of "outside London prices" done ?

 

I assume that there are 25 million homes in all of Britain, and only 3 million homes in London - that's 12% of the total.

 

I then multiply the 25 Million x the average price (per the H&N index)

and then subtract 3 million x the Rightmove asking price for London

= this leaves me the notional value of the 22 million homes in the rest of the UK.

 

Example (as of June 2011):

======

25 million x £165,924 = £4.148 Trillion

-3 million x £438,622 = £1.316 Trillion

22 million x ?XXX,XXX = £2.832 Trillion = = £128,727

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Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 153,700 - 0.1% / 167,208 = n/a = 160,519 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :

J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 153,550 - 0.1% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,049 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :

Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 153,400 - 0.1% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% :

=====================================

mom: - 1.58% : - 1.36% : Est.DI: 141.9% / +0.31% = n/a = :+0.57% :+0.65% : + 0.70%

 

Halifax seems to have modified its seasonally adjusted figures once again

 

Here's the most recent version...

 

 

J'10 168,390

Feb 166,928

Mar 168,435

Apr 168,593

May 167,207

Jun 165,686

Jul 167,497

Aug 168,124

Sep 161,974

Oct 164,949

Nov 164,622

Dec 162,803

J'11 164,145

Feb 162,697

Mar 162,712

Apr 160,393

May 161,039

Jun 163,430

Jul 163,981

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Sorry to disagree, but it may not be meaningful; most stocks have a higher beta than the market, at least in terms of the housing market. When the market falls individual stocks fall more. I would not read too much into the builders' stocks now. I agree they were fantastic warning for calling the big turn, but now a big fall in the builders might only feed through to a soft patch for house prices in general. All I see happening if stocks are routed is that interest rates will be kept on hold into next summer and prices might soften up a little like we saw H2/2010 but all consistent with "3-5 years of stagnation" rather than apocalyse now.

So far, the Indices are holding up well

 

UkWideVsRest.jpg

 

In fact, the "Outside London" price managed to push slightly above the 12 month's Moving Average

at £128,990. I think this will prove very temporary.

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Does anyone else get annoyed by misleading headlines like this one ?

 

Now its the average Express reader who is being duped.

Check the headline - But where's the actual news ???

 

SHOCK RISE IN HOUSE PRICES

House prices will rise by 14 per cent over the next four years to reach a record high

 

Saturday August 20,2011 .. By Dana Gloger

 

HOUSE prices will rise by 14 per cent over the next four years to reach a record high, economists have predicted in a shock report.

In the strongest sign yet that the ­property downturn is over, they say the average British home will be worth more than £200,700 in 2015, up from the current value of £176,000.

That will be nearly £10,000 more than the ­previous peak in the boom year of 2007, when the average home was worth £191,200.

 

Rising demand coupled with a lack of supply will cause the increase in prices, according to the highly regarded think-tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

Less than half the number of homes needed to meet demand are currently being built, meaning property values will continue to rocket. An increase in the availability of mortgages over the past few months will also contribute to values rising, as there will be more buyers competing for a limited number of properties.

Population growth and the increasing trend for smaller homes and more single occupancy houses will all drive demand even higher.

 

House prices will rise by 14 per cent over the next four years to reach a record high

Prices have already risen by 2.3 per cent since January, as the Daily Express reported yesterday.

Today’s predictions will be welcomed by home owners, many of whom have battled with negative equity since the start of the recession.

 

According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, seven per cent of people currently owe more than the value of their property. In parts of north-east England it is as high as 16 per cent.

The predicted rise in property values will also come as a relief to those worried about the faltering economy and static wages.

Three-quarters of Britons have not received a pay rise this year. For those who did, the average increase was just two per cent, far below the 4.4 per cent rate of inflation.

 

In further good news, the think-tank also predicted that interest rates would stay below two per cent until at least 2015, meaning mortgage payments will not rise substantially. The Bank of England’s base rate is currently 0.5 per cent.

Shehan Mohamed, CEBR economist, said: “We forecast an average of 110,000 new homes to be built every year over the medium term.

“This is significantly lower than the 225,000 homes that need to be created every year to keep pace with population growth and the trend towards reduced household sizes.”

Douglas McWilliams, the think-tank’s chief executive, added: “The housing shortage is likely to push prices upwards.” Samantha Baden, analyst at FindaProperty.com, said: “The CEBR’s ­predictions are not surprising given the pressures on the housing market.

 

/more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/266056/SHOCK-RISE-IN-HOUSE-PRICES

 

This is nothing more than a frigging forecast.

There no real news here.

I'd love to bet against this. I will pay GBP1,000 for every 1% prices rise over 13%, if the pay me GBP1,000 for every 1% they fall short of their 14% forecast.

 

If they are right, they collect a nice and easy GBP1,000

 

SHAME, shame, shame... Shame on Fools

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjcLo6NYca0

"You got me where you want me.

I'm nothing but your fool."

 

The article closes with these classic three misinformation quotes:

“It is particularly welcome for people who don’t have enough pensions savings as they will be able to make money from their property.

“Next year’s Olympic Games will also give the housing market a boost.

“Property is a good investment in the long term and now is a good time to buy.”

 

Buy in a chain, and you have a "chain of fools."

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BARRATT / BDEV is vulnerable ... update

BDEV2011.gif.jpg

... as is the UK Property market

After 3 months, we can see the accuracy of the BDEV comment

BDEVaug19.gif.jpg

 

The slide to new lows is hardly foreshadowing a "surging" UK property market.

There's a real possibility that the UK property market is set to fall off the cliff.

And those Upbeat Headlines are nothing more than "damage control" by those with vested interest.

 

"Stick a fork in it!"

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BARRATT / BDEV is vulnerable ... update

BDEV2011.gif.jpg

... as is the UK Property market

After 3 months, we can see the accuracy of the BDEV comment

BDEVaug19.gif.jpg

 

The slide to new lows is hardly foreshadowing a "surging" UK property market.

There's a real possibility that the UK property market is set to fall off the cliff.

And those Upbeat Headlines are nothing more than "damage control" by those with vested interest.

 

"Stick a fork in it!"

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Not sure about pick up, but I think they will level out after about 5 or 6 months of falls (nominal).

 

Between 5 and 10% down before the nominal low is in was my guess from this time last year, and I'm still sticking to it (currently about 2% down on the most bearish reading).

That's possible - the "muddle through" scenario may work...

 

UNLESS:

+ There is a big shrinkage of jobs in the City

+ Interest rates rise, as debt problems spread to the UK

 

Meantime, Outside London Prices have joined the other major indices in Falling

 

UknonLondonR.jpg

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Population statistics for London

 

Year Population

1 Fewer than 5,000

500 Fewer than 5,000

1066 Est 5,000 - 40,000 (William the Conqueror)

1600 Est 200,000

1650 Est 350,000

1300 Est 50,000 - 100,000

1700 Est 700,000

1801 958,863

1821 1,378,947

1841 1,948,417

1861 2,803,989

1881 3,815,544 (or Greater London 4,776,661)

1891 4,211,056 (or Greater London 5,633,332)

1899 6,528,434 (Greater London)

1939 8,615,245 (Greater London) - population's peak

1951 8,196,978 (Greater London)

1961 7,992,616 (Greater London)

1971 7,452,520 (Greater London)

1981 6,805,000 (Greater London - midyear est)

1991 6,829,300 (Greater London - midyear est)

2001 7,322,400 (Greater London - midyear est)

2002 7,361,600 (Greater London - midyear est)

2003 7,364,100 (Greater London - midyear est)

2004 7,389,100 (Greater London - midyear est)

2005 7,456,100 (Greater London - midyear est)

2006 7,512,400 (Greater London - midyear est)

 

/source: http://www.londononline.co.uk/factfile/historical/

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I would have thought the housing market to be too illiquid to be analysed using traditional TA methods?

Fundamental analysis would probably be more suitable?

Not at all !

Look at the charts, and you will see that the 12 mo-MA and 48 mo-MA have worked very well so far !

 

ukhansmp3.png..ukgrlsmp3.png..

 

MOMENTS OF TRUTH... and the 48month MA's held

 

Month: H&N-Index : 48mo.-MA

Jul. '11: £166,723 : £168,633 (within 1.13%)

Nov.11: £163,300 : £166,353

 

Month: Gr.-London : 48mo.-MA

Sep.10: £399,019 : £394,102 (within 1.25%)

Nov.11: £444,724 : £409,223

 

They are now headed in different directons. How with the conflict be resolved?

 

(Comment from above):

I think that Blue MA (which is 48 months, and the Red one is 12 mos) is pretty interesting.

It suggests the up Move in the H&N Index has petered out, and we may now be set for a resumption of the Crash.

The Greater London chart has the look of a Final Rally to me, and an eventual slide below the 48d-MA would be very bearish if/when it is broken

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Yep, quite right Van.

Wondered if anyone would notice that (even HPC'ers picked up on it within 4 posts) :rolleyes:

Seems that many are only interested in the NSA when it works the other way ;)

 

Then again, the spring bounce is a real phenomena (weird as it is) so it’s not totally unfair to revise down in such circumstances.

A valid point.

But when I look at all the Data, two things Jump Out at me:

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 127,148 - 0.25% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 125,624 - 1.20% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 127,160 +1.22% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,712 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 127,721 +0.44% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,393 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 128,189 +0.37% / 167,208 = n/a = 161,039 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :

J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 128,965 +0.61% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,430 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :

Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 129,766 +0.62% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% :

A : : 231,543 : 418,008 : 128,105 -1.28% / 165,914 = n/a = 161,743 162,076 : £163,995 : - 1.64% :141.2% :

S : : 233.139 : 427,889 : 128,821 +0.55% / 166,256 = n/a = 161,132 162,375 : £164,316 : + 0.20% :141.9% :

O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 127,252 -1.22% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% :H

N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% :

D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% :

2012

J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% :

F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% :

M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,327 = n/a

======================================

mom:+1.58% : +1.31 % : -Est.DI : 147.3% / + 0.38% = n/a = : - 0.49% : +0.01% : +0.16%

 

 

(1) Nationwide is down Year-on-Year from 164,751 to 163,327 in March 2012 - that's -0.86%

 

(2) The Delusion Index, estimated for March, is 147.3%, a record "nose bleed" level.

 

I reckon that the Sellers are going to find that theirre confidence gets very thoroughly crushed in the weeks and months to come, and when reality strikes home after the Olympics, the market will wake up and find it is in Crash-cruise-speed freefall, rather than the gentle sides-to-down drift that we have been seeing in recent months.

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DELUSION is Rampant - amongst both Buyers and Lenders

=======

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2012

J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% :

F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% :

M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% :

A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : = n/a = : = n/a = / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% :

M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : = n/a = : = n/a = / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% :

J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : = n/a = : = n/a = / 165,738

======================================

mom:+1.01% : +1.73 % : Est.DI : 150.2% / - 0.17% = n/a = :+0.66% : +0.38% :+0.77% :

Highest (estimated) Delusion Index in my records

 

EXCERPT - From Rightmove's Release - They never let the market "clear" in a Recession

 

Previous recessions have been driven by measures taken to combat inflation, with soaring interest rates

and repossession numbers. Those high numbers of forced sales helped to provide liquidity in the housing market,

something the current downturn lacks. The result is a very patchy market characterised by reduced transaction

volumes, with low interest rates helping to keep people in their homes, exacerbating the supply shortage in

locations of high demand. At £477,440, London is up 1.7% (£8,126) on the previous average asking price high set

last month, while the South East is 0.5% (£1,662) above its previous record set in October 2011. The South West

too is only some £300 off an all-time high. Removing London’s record-breaking performance from the dataset

demonstrates the extent of its impact on the national average. Stripped of all the capital’s properties, the average

asking price across the rest of the country would still be more than 5% adrift of its peak recorded nearly five years

ago in August 2007.

 

Shipside comments: “These strong rises in the south of the country have helped to push the national average

asking price into new record territory. In these uncertain economic times, lenders feel safer to lend to those with a

cash-cushion, and those sitting on that cash often feel more comfortable with it invested in tangible assets,

including bricks and mortar. The better properties in the better areas remain in short supply, giving sellers of

sought-after stock, and their agents, the confidence to come to market at a higher price. The right property within

commuting or holiday bolt-hole distance of the capital seems to be an attractive each-way bet with the potential

to be both recession-proof and offer good odds to keep pace with, or even outstrip, inflation”.

 

/more: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/06/june-2012.pdf

 

I don't think that London's outperformance, in economic growth and in home price rises, is quite as assured as Rightmove seems to think. There may be a great SHOCK ahead, when the UK's borrowing capacity "hits a wall", a very predictable wall.

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BTL has been propping up the market thus far...

Perhaps not for much longer:

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.htm?more_tenants_in_serious_arrears_with_rent_payments

However, at 23,700, there are still almost double as many buy-to-let mortgages in severe arrears than four years ago.

 

Jardine said: “The rising level of severe tenant arrears has yet to filter through into buy-to-let arrears. In fact, buy-to-let mortgage arrears have been steadily falling since the Bank of England reduced interest rates in 2009.

 

“Landlords have been enjoying historically low mortgage payments, which has cushioned the blow of late rent payments, and many have met the lower mortgage costs with money set aside from slush funds, or rental guarantee schemes. However by necessity an increased number of landlords have had to resort to court orders to remove tenants in long-term arrears, and this has increased.

 

When are the bankers going to wake up, and start charging MORE for BTL mortgages,

and lending lower LTV there ?

The pressure will intensify greatly after the Olympics IMHO.

 

haliwiden.png

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2012

J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% :

F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% :

M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% :

A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% :

M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% :

J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% :

 

======================================

mom:+1.01% : +1.73 % : Est.DI : 149.7% / - 0.17% = n/a = :+0.66% : +0.38% :+0.36% :

 

 

This looks Bullish, but I don't quite believe it is important.

HaliWide prices have pushed above the Moving Averages that usually are key resistance,

but it has done this during a seasonal highpoint :

 

HaliWde : 12mMa: 48mMa

====== ====== ======

£160,554 163,685 165,244 : J

£160,805 163,633 164,711 : F

£163,373 163,626 164,263 : M

£162,657 163,518 163,803 : A

£163,904 163,445 163,467 : M

£164,489 163,326 163,204 : J

 

 

But this is not yet true for Rest-of-UK Prices

 

haliroukn.png

 

RestUK : 12mMa: 48mMa

====== ====== ======

146,967 153,405 156,233 : J

149,658 153,219 155,669 : F

151,853 153,096 155,174 : M

152,815 152,895 154,703 : A

152,803 152,584 154,280 : M

153,332 152,241 153,930 : J

 

Meantime, Greater London prices have gone on rising, as we approach the Olympics

 

haligrln.png

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Piece on which house price index is the best on Money Week

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/which-house-price-index-is-the-best-60003

And the winner is.............. Land Reg!

(As has always been recommended by some here :rolleyes: )

Also, is that GEI's Van at comment #2?

The Land Reg. figures come too late to be of much use to anyone but historians.

If you want to use a figure for decision-making, you need something more current. To smooth out "noise", I use an average of the NSA figures posted by Halifax and Nationwide, and call that "new" index Hali-Wide or the H&N Index. You can find a database here: TinyUrl dotcom / GEI-data

 

I have found that the HaliWide Index "charts well". In other words, it tends to establish trends, which when broken often prove meaningful.

 

To get a more up-to-date sense of the market, I also watch the charts of the UK builders, and especially Barratt and Persimmon.

== ==

 

I did like this comment from the article:

"The trouble is house prices are still too high. My colleague Phil Oakley has argued that, although propped up by low interest rates, the housing market is 'rotting from within'. "

 

...and if you go to that article, you will discover some alarming facts, including this one, about interest-only mortgages:

 

"These mortgages are a big problem for lenders. They account for 36% of all mortgages outstanding (43% if you include buy-to-let mortgages). During the next ten years, 1.5 million interest-only mortgages with a value of £120bn (10% of all outstanding mortgages) are due to be repaid. How?"

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UK Net Worth Rises to Record £6.8 Trillion / IBTimes.co.uk

 

Britain's net worth reached a record £6.8 trillion at the end of last year, according to the Office for National Statistics, as persistently high property prices offset a fall in the contribution of the central government.

 

The National Balance Sheet figures, released by the ONS, show a 3.3 percent increase in what is called "UK Net Worth", a calculation that estimates the market value of financial and non-financial assets in the country.

 

According to the data, the value of Britain's residential property (as well as things such as churches and sports grounds) was the single-largest contributor, adding more than £4.1tn to the total account. Britain's currency holdings and its bank deposits added a further £1.3tn. The value of what's called "insurance technical reserves", which are effectively the value of the private insurance industry's holdings, was £2.2tn.

 

/see: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/374343/20120816/britain-net-worth-house-prices-debt-borrowing.htm

 

Getting a GRIP on Housing Wealth...

 

Britain's residential property---------- : £4,100 Bn

Less: churches and sports grounds :: £ 400 Bn (assume 10%)

Privately owned Homes----------------- : £3,700 Bn (assume 90%)

Addback: Mortgages outstanding--- : £1,221 Bn : MLAR Mortgage Loan O/S

Overall Value of Private Homes------ : £4,921 Bn : Mtg.OS: 24.9%

=============

 

Divided by Ave Price (Haliwide)---- : £164,489 : June 2012

Est.Number, homes in the UK------ : 29.91 million (Overall Value / Ave. Haliwide Price)

 

Divided by Ave Price, adjusted ---- : £180,838 : June 2012: 80% Nationwide/Halifax, 20%-Rightmove

Est.Number, homes in the UK------ : 27.21 million (Overall Value / Ave. Adjusted Price)

 

Est.Number, empty homes in UK---- : 930,000 : emptyhomes.com

Est.Number, occupied homes UK-- : 26.28 million

 

(Another check)...

Number of households in the UK--- : 26.30 million : in 2011

Number of homes in the UK---------- : 25.00 million : BBC figure

Owner occupied homes in UK------- : 17.50 million : 7-of-10, per BBC

Population of the U.K. ----------------- : 62.64 million : in 2011

 

NOTE:

The initial numbers I collected did not "add up" propeerly.

The Mortgage Gross figure of- : £ 7,200 Bn is too high - Incl. Commercial Mtgs?

I found another Mortgage O/S : £ 1,221 Bn : MLAR Figure, Q1-2011

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Olympic lull contributes to largest ever August price drop

 

DATA

August 2012 was £236,260, down 2.4 per cent from £242,097 in July.

London: £454,875, -1.2% from Jul'12: £460,304,

 

This 2012 decline, is also the biggest TWO MONTH drop since 2003

 

August drops : Jul-Aug : SON&D : 2ndHalf / Lon-2H

2003 : +0.0% : +0.44% : +2.89% : +3.35% / +0.60%

2004 : - 2.0% : - 0.84% : - 1.35% : - 2.18% / - 4.87%

2005 : - 0.2% : - 1.19% : - 0.05% : - 1.24% / +1.86%

2006 : - 1.6% : +1.23% : +3.60% : +4.88% /+12.65%

2007 : +0.6% : +0.90% : - 3.76% : - 2.89% / - 0.84%

2008 : - 2.3% : - 4.07% : - 5.23% : - 9.08% / - 1.83%

2009 : - 2.2% : - 1.62% : - 0.58% : - 2.20% / +0.32%

2010 : - 1.7 % : - 2.32% : - 4.23% : -6.46% / - 4.97%

2011 : - 2.1% : - 3.68% : - 2.50% : - 6.09% / - 0.93%

2012 : - 2.4% : - 4.05% : ? ? ?

=====

 

The average drop for SON&D is -1.24%, so we may be headed for a 5% drop (or greater) in the second Half of 2012.

 

/see: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/august-2012

 

If you can accept that the Olympics effected Mainly London, it may have saved that market from a bigger drop.

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Hi DrB

 

Could I suggest that you might want to stop talking about the Delusion Index. This is because dividing Rightmove by the HaliWide actually has no meaning as the indices measure completely different animals.

 

The Rightmove is asking prices as we know but importantly is calculated by taking a simple arithmetic mean as properties come onto the market. This means the average price will be affected by price changes but also house mix changes and regional mix changes. In contrast the HaliWide doesn't measure any sort of mean or average. Instead it is simply calculating the price of a "Standard" house. Therefore I don't see how you can ratio the two. Note: Admittedly I originally made the same error.

 

If you'd like to read more on the topic then this could be a good starting place.

 

I get your point: by calling it a "Delusion Index", it suggests it has more meaning that it really does.

With the index now at 150%, it does not mean that Seller's are now offering properties at a 50% premium

to where the deals get done.

 

Instead, this is a sort of ratio between Green Apples and Red Apples (they are not exactly the same thing)

but they are similar things.

 

I think the Ratio IS MEANINGFUL, since it shows how the Rightmove figures are behaving in relation to Hali-Wide.

A fat premium tends to get whittled down over time, and there is a tendency for ratio to revert to Moving Averages.

 

ukdelusion.png

 

BTW, why do you think Rightmove's index is now at such a fat premium to other indicies?

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We are getting the Crash - But not in London (yet) - so be careful !

 

 

Old Quote: from End May 2009

 

"I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks,

to the Low in 2012-13."

== UNQUOTE ===

/see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30

 

How accurate? What happened from June 2009 ?

 

Answers :

========

+ Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond.

 

restuk.jpg

 

+ The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond.

 

+ Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak.

 

abbaa.jpg

 

+ Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap?

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