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GPC UK Data bank / & "Bull Trap podcast"

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We now have confirmation; the lucky £5000 per week tenants are moving in today!

 

Housing Benefit??

 

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Housing Benefit??

I dont think so. A very up market removal company has just delivered the new occupant's belongings. I'll observe behaviour though; it usually speaks volumes.

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I dont think so. A very up market removal company has just delivered the new occupant's belongings. I'll observe behaviour though; it usually speaks volumes.

Perhaps they were able to save plenty, by getting HMGvt to pay the rent

 

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I purchased a home recently, in April this year, it could well have been an intermediate top (I sold my previous place in September '07). I may well have bought at the wrong point, I could well have been caught in the "bull trap" however I am not interested in the capital value. My girlfriend and I had been looking for 3 years for a home and finally, finally, we found it. Individually we are extremely fussy and difficult people so you can perhaps imagine why it took us so long to agree to buy.

 

I post here really as a message to others to say, if you can cope with a serious increase in retail mortgage interest rates (ie greater than 10%) and you find a place you'd like to call home for the rest of your life, then perhaps it isn't such a bad idea after all, if you never plan on selling.

 

We purchased 15% below peak (and I admit it was a large peak in context of the ever pervasive credit bubble), however we have found a place that is perfect for us. There are some elements of living here (Helensburgh, Scotland) that can't be defined using currency.

 

DSC_7839.jpg

DSC_7824.jpg

DSC_7822.jpg

DSC_7821.jpg

DSC_7814.jpg

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DSC_7824.jpg

Beautiful.

Only sunrise over smoggy Mongkok can match it

 

This place (Kowloon Wall City) doesn't exist any more, but it gives you an idea of the beauty here

80klnwcity_figure2_large.jpg

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There are some signs of people trying to flip properties in Glasgow. One that sold last year for £160K and is back on the market (with a coat of paint and some posh wallpaper) for offers over £190K. Another bought for £154K in May is back on the market with a new bathroom for £175K.

 

EDIT - I definitely think Scotland has topped or is topping out now. Just reviewing some of the homes on sale and there are examples of some that are being offered at 15% - 20% more than peak - it's beyond belief.

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There are some signs of people trying to flip properties in Glasgow. One that sold last year for £160K and is back on the market (with a coat of paint and some posh wallpaper) for offers over £190K. Another bought for £154K in May is back on the market with a new bathroom for £175K.

 

EDIT - I definitely think Scotland has topped or is topping out now. Just reviewing some of the homes on sale and there are examples of some that are being offered at 15% - 20% more than peak - it's beyond belief.

Congrats on the purchase. You have obviously thought it through.

 

We looked around there several years back, but ended up in the West End (work, friends etc) and then, later, the burbs.

How are the midges? :rolleyes:

 

Mixed news here in G61/G62. A lot of properties recently sold (including friends that had both been on market for several months), but I wouldn't at all be suprised if they trickle down 5 to 10% over the next year or so.

 

Home.co.uk has mixed data too (semi's down, rest up etc).

 

PS, Nice pics (and wow, what a great weather week we've had), in fact, were just going up the campsies now B)

Makes up for my miserable trading this week!

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There are some signs of people trying to flip properties in Glasgow. One that sold last year for £160K and is back on the market (with a coat of paint and some posh wallpaper) for offers over £190K. Another bought for £154K in May is back on the market with a new bathroom for £175K.

 

EDIT - I definitely think Scotland has topped or is topping out now. Just reviewing some of the homes on sale and there are examples of some that are being offered at 15% - 20% more than peak - it's beyond belief.

As we have discussed before - you seem to be a level-headed guy, well able to cope with the challenges of home owning, and paying down a mortgage. And as you say: You are BUYING A HOME, not speculating on property.

 

Personally, I look at things a bit differently - perhaps because I have moved around so much, and am less attached emotionally to any particular place - and my partner's views are similar to me own. She loves where we live, but would like a bigger flat in the same complex. So if we can make some money from buying and selling property, and "trade up" someday, she would be very happy.

 

So good luck with your home. But don't expect to make money on it.

 

Here's the latest chart - thru August, including an Estimate of Pds.167,500 for Halifax

 

001z.gif

 

The recent HPI data looks like this:

Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

When?: 18th? - 28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?

2010

A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A : : 232,241 : 166,507 ====== ======: £167,000est

mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : +0.74% : +1.47%

 

I think a break of the 12 month's moving average of about Pds.166,000 will probably happen in September.

and that will give a signal that the second leg of the House Price Crash is well and truly underway.

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READ THE CHART ! It whispers its messages for those clued up

 

Here's Barratt Development / BDEV.L ... update : Longer Term : Last 12 months : 6mos

bdev2.gif

 

It looks to me like we just had a "fake out" bounce on light volume, and the NEXT LEG DOWN

is about to begin. If it breaks the recent lows with high volume, that should be a clear signal IMHO.

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There are some elements of living here (Helensburgh, Scotland) that can't be defined using currency.

 

One of my all time favourite films Local Hero springs to mind.

 

From:

 

You appear to have found your sangri la, good luck.

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Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 166,507 167,953* 168,889 : £168

mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : +0.74% : +1.47%

 

*Halifax seems to have changed all its SA figures for 2010 (& 2009)

 

=== === There's no need to change the H&N index, since it uses NSA data

 

Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

When?: 18th? - 28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?

2009

J. : : 213,570 : 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%

F : : 216,163 : 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW

M : : 218,081 : 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%

A : : 222,077 : 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%

M : : 227,441 : 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%

J. : : 226,436 : 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%

Jl : : 227,864 : 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6%

A : : 222,762 : 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3%

S : : 223,996 : 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%

O : : 230,184 : 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH

N : : 226,440 : 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9%

D : : 221,463 : 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5%

===========

Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH

F : : 229,398 : 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%

M : : 229,614 : 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%

A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : = n/a = :+0.25% +0.33% :

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This looks like a brief Calm before the storm.

 

UK Halifax index showed August prices up 0.2%, seasonally adjusted.

It's taking some time to turn...

I observe that Halifax index is already off its high of April (NSA) and January (SA),

and I believe that it may be slower to show an impulse move at the Turns, and

that is why I use the average of Halifax & Nationwide in my work.

 

The H&N Index was...

 

Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH

F : : 229,398 : 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%

M : : 229,614 : 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%

A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : = n/a = :+0.25% +0.33%

 

/source: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap

 

That's down: -0.68% in August.

 

The falling Rightmove & Delusion Index is also signalling a possible turn

 

My homebuilder bellwether, Barratt / BDEV.L, has paused ... update

zzz1.gif

 

But I note that the recent big volume days have been to the downside.

A confirmation that a bigger slide is underway might be if BDEV slides thru support near BDEV-92p

with rising volume. On the other hand, an upside breakout with volume, would signal that the

topping process will take longer.

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"Rm -1.1%"

 

I still think price falls will average -1% per month over the next 2-3 years

== == ==

 

I originally posted this on : a HPC thread.

 

But TPTB there have now set up a mechanism which automatically transforms "tinyurl" to *******, so I wrote:

 

(For collected historical data, try : tiny url dotcom /UKtrap )

 

Like the bl@@dy us-govt, HPC seems bent on supression

 

== == ==

 

London's CRASHING !

Just look at this data:

 

Mon.: Rt'move : London / Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH

F : : 229,398 : 427,987 / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%

M : : 229,614 : 417,461 / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%

A : : 235,512 : 421,822 / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 420,203 / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 / 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 /

mom: -1.07%: - 1.49% // -1.68% : = n/a = :+0.25% +0.33%

 

...And chart suggests a glut of property for sale: / Large Version

003qz.jpg

 

Better lower those prices, if you want to make a sale !

 

The uptrend may be breaking now

002bn.gif

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London's CRASHING !

Mon.: Rt'move : London / Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 / 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 /

mom: -1.07%: - 1.49% // -1.68% : = n/a = :+0.25% +0.33%

You are right.

Down from £429,597 to £399,019 in three months !

That's - £30,578, or minus 7.1 %, - 2.4% per month.

 

What was crash cruise speed supposed to be ?

 

 

 

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Collecting London data

 

Jan 2002 226,000 122,908 183.9%

Feb 2002 225,000 128,490 175.1%

Mar 2002 233,500 131,085 178.1%

Apr 2002 242,000 136,969 176.7%

May 2002 245,000 141,333 173.3%

Jun 2002 250,672 145,201 172.6%

Jul 2002 251,866 146,854 171.5%

Aug 2002 250,782 147,957 169.5%

Sep 2002 253,000 151,429 167.1%

Oct 2002 256,537 155,467 165.0%

Nov 2002 265,725 155,199 171.2%

Dec 2002 259,001 156,084 165.9%

Jan 2003 262,735 155,481 169.0%

Feb 2003 265,899 158,639 167.6%

Mar 2003 258,962 160,536 161.3%

Apr 2003 259,244 161,370 160.7%

May 2003 257,640 163,393 157.7%

Jun 2003 257,026 165,511 155.3%

Jul 2003 262,400 166,207 157.9%

Aug 2003 258,702 166,244 155.6%

Sep 2003 251,472 165,265 152.2%

Oct 2003 262,868 170,720 154.0%

Nov 2003 265,794 170,547 155.8%

Dec 2003 258,571 171,055 151.2%

Jan 2004 259,429 170,935 151.8%

Feb 2004 270,019 174,506 154.7%

Mar 2004 275,459 179,570 153.4%

Apr 2004 278,098 184,582 150.7%

May 2004 286,630 188,962 151.7%

Jun 2004 288,385 193,965 148.7%

Jul 2004 291,160 196,198 148.4%

Aug 2004 278,519 192,335 144.8%

Sep 2004 276,664 192,316 143.9%

Oct 2004 281,064 193,536 145.2%

Nov 2004 275,394 190,329 144.7%

Dec 2004 274,343 189,733 144.6%

Jan 2005 274,089 189,509 144.6%

Feb 2005 279,867 193,830 144.4%

Mar 2005 284,242 194,962 145.8%

Apr 2005 282,215 197,539 142.9%

May 2005 284,071 198,147 143.4%

Jun 2005 282,118 198,642 142.0%

Jul 2005 284,887 196,649 144.9%

Aug 2005 280,452 196,282 142.9%

Sep 2005 279,891 195,407 143.2%

Oct 2005 281,927 196,348 143.6%

Nov 2005 291,904 197,855 147.5%

Dec 2005 287,367 196,181 146.5%

Jan 2006 291,047 196,319 148.3%

Feb 2006 295,685 201,600 146.7%

Mar 2006 300,719 203,399 147.8%

Apr 2006 303,837 205,674 147.7%

May 2006 308,715 209,829 147.1%

Jun 2006 315,224 211,442 149.1%

Jul 2006 324,216 217,580 149.0%

Aug 2006 319,428 214,040 149.2%

Sep 2006 328,607 214,566 153.1%

Oct 2006 335,507 218,954 153.2%

Nov 2006 344,949 222,333 155.1%

Dec 2006 355,097 221,751 160.1%

Jan 2007 356,192 222,859 159.8%

Feb 2007 359,989 224,802 160.1%

Mar 2007 366,302 228,183 160.5%

Apr 2007 379,846 236,490 160.6%

May 2007 385,199 237,361 162.3%

Jun 2007 387,898 239,317 162.1%

Jul 2007 394,730 240,001 164.5%

Aug 2007 394,268 241,474 163.3%

Sep 2007 384,439 235,176 163.5%

Oct 2007 403,637 241,642 167.0%

Nov 2007 412,731 239,986 172.0%

Dec 2007 384,632 232,396 165.5%

Jan 2008 398,476 230,428 172.9%

Feb 2008 402,233 237,856 169.1%

Mar 2008 407,383 239,655 170.0%

Apr 2008 403,545 239,521 168.5%

May 2008 404,541 242,500 166.8%

Jun 2008 399,010 239,564 166.6%

Jul 2008 400,258 235,219 170.2%

Aug 2008 379,162 229,816 165.0%

Sep 2008 394,248 227,438 173.3%

Oct 2008 395,560 229,691 172.2%

Nov 2008 390,340 222,979 175.1%

Dec 2008 391,721 217,808 179.8%

Jan 2009 386,653 213,570 181.0%

Feb 2009 387,988 216,163 179.5%

Mar 2009 398,867 218,081 182.9%

Apr 2009 387,161 222,077 174.3%

May 2009 397,646 227,441 174.8%

Jun 2009 397,140 226,436 175.4%

Jul 2009 402,761 227,864 176.8%

Aug 2009 387,265 222,762 173.8%

Sep 2009 390,768 223,996 174.5%

Oct 2009 416,157 230,184 180.8%

Nov 2009 403,069 226,440 178.0%

Dec 2009 398,426 221,463 179.9%

Jan 2010 407,731 222,261 183.4%

Feb 2010 427,987 229,398 186.6%

Mar 2010 417,461 229,614 181.8%

Apr 2010 421,822 235,512 179.1%

May 2010 420,203 237,134 177.2%

Jun 2010 429,597 236,332 181.8%

Jul 2010 422,248 236,332 178.7%

Aug 2010 405,058 232,241 174.4%

Sep 2010 399,019 229,767 173.7%

Oct 2010

Nov 2010

Dec 2010

======

 

The Pct peaked at 187% (feb.2010), and is now falling back fast, with the drop in London prices

 

001ek.gif

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You are right.

Down from £429,597 to £399,019 in three months !

That's - £30,578, or minus 7.1 %, - 2.4% per month.

 

What was crash cruise speed supposed to be ?

Bear in mind a lot of that 30K is just agents trying it on. I always look at a property in the UK and knock 20-30 off as overvalued froth.

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They have to provide a crumb of comfort, it is their trade, and I do find them mor ebalanced than most VIs.

This is all great news for a leading indicator in the summer, this looks like the big one. Welcome to the fear phase.

 

Time for a graph that can never be reproduced enough:

...

The facts fit so far:

50634436.jpg

 

Fear will spread more widely when London prices (per Rightmove) are falling in sync with Halifax & Nationwide indices

 

001tn.png

You will note that the 12mo. MA was broken, but that the 12mo-MA (red line)

hardly dipped below a sideways move on Greater London..

 

UPDATE :

I think the downtrends may accelerate when 12mo.MA's are broken, & the MA's turn negative:

 

Index====== : latest - month / chg. : 12Mo. Ma / chg.

Rightmove.. : 229,767 - Sep -1.07% : 230.557 +0.21% - MA broken !

Rt-London.. : 399,019 - Sep -1.49% : 414,065 +0.17% - MA broken !

Nationwide. : 166,507 - Aug -1.68% : 165,081 +0.32%

Halifax-Nsa : 168,889 - Aug +0.33%: 167,173 +0.35%

H&N-Index.. : 167,698 - Aug -0.68% : 166,127 +0.33%

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Paint it RED ! Greater London's falling fast

Biggest 3 month fall yet in Rightmove's index

===================================

 

Rightmove won't tell you this, but I will.

 

I have been "unpacking" the data in their news releases, and I find something very interesting, which has not been mentioned in the watered down Press Releases that they have been given.

 

Rightmove announced just two days ago:

+ a -1.07% monthly drop in their National index,

+ a -1.49% monthly drop in their index for Greater London

 

These are big falls, but the year-on-year index changes are still positive - so no reason for London homeowners to be concerned, right?

 

Wrong !

Take a look at the 3 months change of -7.1% for London. That is the biggest slide ever in the life of their index which goes back to 2002.

 

001nvlf.jpg

 

That's an average of -2.4% per month, more than double the "1% speed limit" than we normally see during a crash. And if it does not bounce back very fast, it will be telling us that London may be set for one of the biggest price drops in History.

 

Fasten your seat belts !

 

For you music fans out there, here's my forecast, with some help from Mick Jagger:

 

Don't be depressed. Remain cautious. Do not buy recklessly, and stay prepared for opportunities down the road.

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Paint it RED ! Greater London's falling fast

Biggest 3 month fall yet in Rightmove's index

===================================

001nvlf.jpg

 

That's an average of -2.4% per month, more than double the "1% speed limit" than we normally see during a crash. And if it does not bounce back very fast, it will be telling us that London may be set for one of the biggest price drops in History.

 

Fasten your seat belts !

 

This is great news for us housing bears still hibernating in the UK. The days are growing longer but its still cold outside, I think I'll stay in my warm cave a little longer. I truly think that this will be a glorious spring.

 

Bubb, thanks for your work on this, and for making it available.

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This is great new for us housing bears still hibernating in the UK. The days are growing longer but its still cold outside, I think I'll stay in my warm cave a little longer. I truly think that this will be a glorious spring.

Bubb, thanks for your work on this, and for making it available.

Thanks for the comment, Meralti.

 

I have to say that I am a little surprised that so little has been made (here & elsewhere) of the very deep 3 months drop in Gr-London bids.

I think it may be a precursor to some very big falls, if the momentum continues

 

If the 3mo-MA stays pink, it is going to soon bring some very deep RED to that chart.

 

It has been a long time since we saw any significant BLUE on the chart

== == ==

 

RENTS - can this be true ?

 

The average for rent price for property in Greater London is £1,223.01, which means an increase of 5.30 % respecting the previous month (August). In the last 3 months (June 2010 - September 2010) it has increase of 13.02 %.

 

/source: http://homes.trovit.co.uk/567/greater-lond...nt-price-county

 

What are these figures? They start in June 2010?

They must be more frrequently than weekly...

=======

1033.73, 1025.05, 1025.05, 1028.14, 1029.69,

1032.9,1038.66,1032.1,1024.61,1010.28,984.06,960.98,964.13,966.11,1008.9,997.47,

1017.13,1005.04,1000.85,1005.07,997.8,992.42,998.83,995.66,1005,1015.04,1101.46,1

107.74,1127,1131.93,1150.13,1149.11,1149.21,1151.87,1068.87,1073.04,1083.46,1101.

39,1070.36,1090.33,1108.19,1103.22,1114.15,1057.93,1115.12,1105.88,1105.55,1112.4

9,1127.8,1126.45,1058.92,1081.69,1064.53,1095.7,1111.33,1077.17,1085.42,1076.4,10

84.18,1132.21,1117.65,1085.89,1190.18,1203.52,1161.28,1196.57,1197.98,1220.28,120

4.77,1225.55,1197.92,1194.73,1211.49,1192.41,1198.36,1196.71,1189.47,1205.84,1159

.72,1205.86,1215.56,1236.78,1178.68,1171.74,1188.2,1185.87,1186.88,1189.32

 

1033.73 to 1189.32 - is a massive 15.1% change for 3 months.

I simply cannot believe these figures - are they made up?

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Thanks for the comment, Meralti.

 

I have to say that I am a little surprised that so little has been made (here & elsewhere) of the very deep 3 months drop in Gr-London bids.

I think it may be a precursor to some very big falls, if the momentum continues

 

If the 3mo-MA stays pink, it is going to soon bring some very deep RED to that chart.

 

It has been a long time since we saw any significant BLUE on the chart

 

 

This sort of analysis will be sat on until it cannot be denied, especially by an organisation like Rightmove, and is confirmed by every other index. It will take a few months to work through and there may be contrary indicators that will be used to refute it.

 

I think you're right about the probable speed and depth of the falls, this could also take a few months to really gain momentum though. Should be well under way by Q1 next year.

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This sort of analysis will be sat on until it cannot be denied, especially by an organisation like Rightmove, and is confirmed by every other index. It will take a few months to work through and there may be contrary indicators that will be used to refute it.

 

I think you're right about the probable speed and depth of the falls, this could also take a few months to really gain momentum though. Should be well under way by Q1 next year.

Very possibly.

The peak for Greater London was : Pds.427,987 in Feb.2010

We are likely to have a very large drop recorded when the new index for Feb. 2011 is released.

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Which Flawed index should one use?

 

IMHO, the Halifax is a flawed index.

 

http://www.lloydsban...halifax_hpi.asp

 

It overestimates the fall from peak at -16% and falsely presents prices as currently rising from an overly low base. However, its inflation adjusted and wage adjusted prices raise an interesting question:

 

If you accept that its data shows that prices adjusted for wages and/or inflation are currently at 2003 levels, and faced with the likelyhood of state intervention, how long will you hold off from buying in the current downturn? Bear in mind that the first bears set up this site in 2003, when prices first seemed to have diverged from the normal range, it seems to me that a narrow window of opportunity is about to open and that bears who hold off beyond the coming winter dip risk being swamped by inflationist based nominal rises.

 

Personaly, I'm looking to make lowball offers around Christmas and negotiate a reduction of around 15% from the 2010 peak bounce levels.

"Christmas"?

I presume you mean Chistmas 2012 or 2013?

Else you may be far too early. But, hey, its your money

 

If you are going to "adjust" home prices by anything, use average salaries, since I cannot see how rising prices for potatoes or candy bars is going to help people to buy property more easily.

 

And what do you think is going to happen to average salaries over the next 2-3 years?

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I will move this to the new GPC section

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