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drbubb

GPC UK Data bank / & "Bull Trap podcast"

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i got stuck on the train from victoria to balham today so i flicked through the property section. i dont normally as im waiting for a taxi driver to tell me how much his mortgage cost and how many silver coins he owns before i buy somewhere, but nevertheless the 1 and 2 bed flats in fulham, chelsea etc seemed remakably cheaper than i remember them being advertised for in the past...... just an anecdote. i believe the indices have been skewed in the last year by beter quality houses in the same category being sold easily which has given the effect of a low volume rally, when in fact most houses couldnt be sold at the ask.

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UK Mortgages are getting more expensive, as Sentiment Deteriorates

 

Positive sentiment was dealt a blow by figures from the Bank of England that showed mortgage approvals dipped in June because of tighter lending conditions and weakening confidence. The number of loans granted was 48,000, compared with 51,000 in May.

 

"Demand continued to be constrained by the restrictions on mortgage finance," the Bank said. "Looking forward, the major UK lenders expect demand for secured lending to be flat over the rest of the year, partly reflecting weak confidence among potential homebuyers."

 

The Bank added in its Trends in Lending report that mortgages are likely to grow more expensive as a recent increase in their funding costs is starting to apply "upward pressure" to the rates they charge consumers.

 

/more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ed-signals.html

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i got stuck on the train from victoria to balham today so i flicked through the property section. i dont normally as im waiting for a taxi driver to tell me how much his mortgage cost and how many silver coins he owns before i buy somewhere, but nevertheless the 1 and 2 bed flats in fulham, chelsea etc seemed remakably cheaper than i remember them being advertised for in the past...... just an anecdote. i believe the indices have been skewed in the last year by beter quality houses in the same category being sold easily which has given the effect of a low volume rally, when in fact most houses couldnt be sold at the as

 

I'd have to disagree here, hearing eye watering stories of how much your bog standard flats are going for in these areas

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Was the last fall in house prices just a warning?

 

The market has recovered most of the ground it lost after 2007. But pundits now fear a crash that could wipe 20% off the value of your home.

 

Richard Northedge reports / Sunday, 25 July 2010

 

House prices started to fall in autumn 2007, more than a year before the government had to rescue HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland and before the rest of the economy sank into recession.

 

Now there are widespread fears the property market is about to turn downward again, anticipating a double dip in the wider economy.

 

Prices have risen 15 per cent since February last year, according to Nationwide building society, undoing much of the fall during the previous 16 months, but some economists are warning of another crash that could cut values by more than 20 per cent. Even by 2020, house prices will probably not have returned to their pre-crash levels in real terms, say some forecasters.

 

For those people – especially would-be first-time buyers – prevented by high prices from becoming owners in recent years, bringing purchases back to affordable levels may seem like a good buying opportunity. But the reality is that while people may say they do not want another property boom, no one wants to buy an asset that is falling in value, especially if high borrowing means a fall leaves them with negative equity.

 

The housing market's importance extends far beyond whether people own their homes. The Bank of England admits that housing is a driver of the economy; rising prices not only provide the feel-good factor that encourages us to spend and invest, but also givies consumers cash through remortgaging and equity release.

 

John Hawksworth, the head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers, one of the consultants forecasting an imminent decline in prices, warns: "Our econometric analysis suggests that an unanticipated future fall in house prices could have a significant impact in dampening the speed of the recovery in consumer spending in the medium term."

 

There are already signs that a property market that has risen steadily for more than a year has reversed. Selling prices fell last month for the first time since 2009, according to Rightmove, which surveys more than 90 per cent of estate agents, dropping by an average £1,435 to £236,000. Director Miles Shipside says: "This is the first month-on-month fall in 2010, and with the likelihood of more economic pain to come, we forecast further downward pressure on new sellers' asking prices."

 

The new Government is being blamed for the reverse in the market. Not only has demand to buy property been reduced by an austerity package that puts jobs at risk and which will raise VAT, the abolition of HIPs – the Home Information Packs sellers had to buy – has greatly increased the supply of properties on the market. Shipside reports a 22 per cent jump in homes on offer since HIPs were scrapped last month.

 

That has turned a sellers' market into a buyers' market. Instead of several potential purchasers bidding against each other for a limited choice of homes, there is now a wide variety of properties on offer but fewer people coming to view. The result is an increase this year in the average number of properties on estate agents' books from 63 to 77, while the time it takes to sell has lengthened from 63 days to 85. The ratio of sales to agents' stocks fell by 25 per cent last month, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

 

And the increase in capital gains tax announced in the Budget as well as plans to cap housing benefits is making landlords less keen to own properties, according to agents who report a fall in buy-to-let deals.

. . .

The main shortage in the market is not even buyers or land, but finance. Shipside says: "The number of mortgage approvals seems rationed at around 11,000 a week compared to the consistent weekly run rate of about 30,000 newly marketed properties." Not all homes on the market will be sold, and not all purchasers require loans, but savers are still not providing banks and building societies with the funds necessary to meet demand.

 

Traditionally, property market trends start in London and Rightmove's survey shows prices in the capital down by 1.7 per cent last month, with only East Anglia falling further. There were increases in three of London's 32 boroughs, but upmarket Kensington and Chelsea was hit hardest with a 5.2 per cent fall. Bob Crowley, an estate agent with Bective Leslie Marsh, reports people making lower offers and more buyers withdrawing, with price reductions as sellers chase buyers for the first time in 14 months.

 

Roger Bootle, the long-time housing bear who heads Capital Economics, forecasts prices falling much further. He reckons they will end this year down 5 per cent, which means not only reversing the 3 per cent recorded by Nationwide in the first half of 2010, but continuing down. For next year he sees a further 10 per cent fall with the same again in 2012. That would cut prices to below last year's post-crash dip and leave them more than 30 per cent below the 2007 peak, wiping out the wealth of millions of owners and leaving them with negative equity.

 

At Pricewaterhouse, Hawksworth remains gloomy for even longer. He thinks there is a 70 per cent probability that prices will not return to their peak levels in real terms even by 2015, and an evens chance of prices still not reaching 2007 heights, adjusted for inflation, by the end of the decade.

. . .

For buyers, the recent relaxation in lending criteria could be reversed if banks fear the value of their collateral is set to fall. A loan of 80 per cent of the purchase price becomes an 88 per cent loan if the property value declines 10 per cent. A double dip in the housing market will cause problems for lenders as well as borrowers, forcing banks to increase bad-debt charges at a time when they hoped to be writing back previous unused provisions.

 

A double dip in the property market will mean an increase in the number of repossessions. Nationwide's monthly consumer confidence index fell in June to 63, compared with 84 in February, and found that 53 per cent of the public questioned think there will be few jobs available in six months' time. The index shows faith in the economic situation at a record low, and Nationwide's chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, warns: "Consumer willingness to spend remains part of a fine balancing act with the employment situation and levels of disposable income."

 

Nationwide's house price figures for July, due this week, will give a clue to how the market is moving, but Shipman is working on Rightmove's next confidence analysis. "Early indications from the next survey, due out in August, suggest a swing to a more negative outlook on the future direction of property prices," he warns.

 

"In the April survey, before the election and emergency Budget, 44 per cent of respondents believed prices would be the same or lower in 12 months' time." Of those surveyed so far for the August survey, that has turned into a 54 per cent majority. "Consumer sentiment is a major influence on the housing market," he warns.

 

 

/more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ng-2034677.html

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The main shortage in the market is not even buyers or land, but finance

 

Cold turkey for consumers as they learn to live without debt...most amused that the Koalition are getting the blame!

 

 

 

 

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The house next to me no longer has it's For Let sign. This was placed on the market early June at a rent of £4995 per week. It appears they may have a taker!! I hereby eat my previous predictions on the UK Prperty thread that they would never let it!

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The house next to me no longer has it's For Let sign. This was placed on the market early June at a rent of £4995 per week. It appears they may have a taker!! I hereby eat my previous predictions on the UK Prperty thread that they would never let it!

Is it a family of 5 from Nigeria, with the taxpayer picking up the tab?

If so, you can understand why - They prefer not to live "in a poor area"

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Is it a family of 5 from Nigeria, with the taxpayer picking up the tab?

If so, you can understand why - They prefer not to live "in a poor area"

 

Bearing in mind that we are in the City of Westminster, where the well known case a woman with 6 kids living at taxpayers expense

in a £2.5m house just a stones throw from that other burden on the taxpayer - Mr & Mrs T Bliar!, anything is possible.

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Seems like some of us need reminding just how insane the UK property bubble is. Remember people saying 'We will be the last generation that will ever be able to afford our own homes'? How about fifty year motgages? People buying houses with people they don't even know, both parties taking out huge, unaffordable mortgages?

 

The frenzied horde are paying hundreds of thousands of pounds for flats in the middle or birmingham, newcastle and manchester. Houses that in the year 2000 were worth so little that they were impossible to mortgage are now unaffordable for all but the very rich.

 

Property shows litter the TV schedules. Mortgages have been given to anyone and everyone. People self certified their own incomes. Just about everyone has a credit card and huge debts. Saving is being activley discouraged and debt viewed as a good thing. The UK government is borrowing 350 000 pounds every minute of every every day.

 

In a vain attempt to keep this madness going the BOE has dropped its base rate to 0.5%. 0.5%!!! A rise of 0.25% would bankrupt thousands and thousands of people. We are living in extraordinary times. People will look back upon the madness of these past few years with wonder.

 

Those who question selling too early may wish to listen to Lord Rothchild's advice -

 

"I have found an easy way and I stick to it. I simply cannot help making money. I will tell you my secret if you wish. It is this: I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon."

 

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At Pricewaterhouse, Hawksworth remains gloomy for even longer. He thinks there is a 70 per cent probability that prices will not return to their peak levels in real terms even by 2015, and an evens chance of prices still not reaching 2007 heights, adjusted for inflation, by the end of the decade.

 

I've seen this quoted in various places as a gloomy comment.

Am I the only one who thinks that this is a remarkably optimistic comment?

If prices get anywhere near 2007 levels in 2015 I'll be stunned as nothing will have changed and the bubble will still be going strong.

I can see 2015 being close to the bottom at maybe 50% below 2007 levels.

 

 

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I've seen this quoted in various places as a gloomy comment.

Am I the only one who thinks that this is a remarkably optimistic comment?

If prices get anywhere near 2007 levels in 2015 I'll be stunned as nothing will have changed and the bubble will still be going strong.

I can see 2015 being close to the bottom at maybe 50% below 2007 levels.

I totally agree! Anyone who doesn't is unaware of history

 

Compare HK:

The peak was 1997, and now it is 13 years later. The Centaline index is about 80, versus the 1997 peak of 100.

 

Same thing with Japan (way below the peak now), even though Japan peaked earlier than Hong Kong.

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I totally agree! Anyone who doesn't is unaware of history

 

Compare HK:

The peak was 1997, and now it is 13 years later. The Centaline index is about 80, versus the 1997 peak of 100.

 

Same thing with Japan (way below the peak now), even though Japan peaked earlier.

:lol:

History goes back a lot farther than 1997. Since the Norman conquest land in the UK has been unaffordable for the majority of households, for the majority of the time. I see nothing to indicate the (re)consolidation of wealth/power into the hands of a minority is being reversed at present. It may welll be that home ownership becomes more affordable, but maybe history shows that it can remain unaffordable for the masses for many hundreds of years.

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... from GEI's Wealth Measurement Project

 

zzzzg.gif

 

Property prices have been pumped up to unsustainable multiples of Incomes. And this will not last because:

 

+ 2010's silly bullish sentiment towards property is not sustainable (& is waning already)

+ Real rates will not stay at such negative levels (if history is any guide), and

+ Boomers will be driven in the years ahead to downsize their property investments

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The house price rally has run out of steam - what's next?

 

By MoneyWeek Editor John Stepek Jul 29, 2010

 

The house price rally has most definitely run out of steam.

 

Nationwide building society reported this morning that prices fell by 0.5% during July. Annual price inflation fell from 8.7% in June to 6.6%. Apparently the average house in Britain will now set you back a mere £169,347.

 

The Land Registry disagrees slightly. It reckons prices were sitting at around £166,072 in June. But let's not quibble over a few grand.

 

 

This is roughly where prices were sitting in mid-2006.

 

And there's been a barrage of data pointing to further falls in the coming months.

 

So are we heading for a second crash?

 

The house price rally is over

House prices seem to have hit a turning point. Take a look at the chart below, which my colleague David Stevenson has just put together on Bloomberg. It shows Nationwide's monthly change in house prices (white line) and the 12-month moving average (red line).

 

This helps to cut out some of the monthly noise - it's a pretty volatile index in the short term. You can see that the average has rolled over quite clearly for the first time since the 2007/08 crash.

 

image0100.jpg

 

Now it's not as though the moving average has never rolled over in the past without leading to a calamitous downturn. But it does show that the big rally off the 2009 bottom has lost all momentum.

 

/more: http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/e...next-49705.aspx

== ==

 

Note: Builder Shares provided Early Warnings

 

Here's Taylor Wimpey Plc (Other OTC) / TWODF ... update

xxxuv.gif

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LET'S SEE how this forecast does...

 

HOUSE PRICE CRASH IS OVER, SAY ECONOMISTS

 

House prices will rise this year, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research Prices are unlikely to reach 2007 levels before 2013

 

Benjamin Williamson, Centre for Economics and Business Research

1st August 2010 By Daily Star On Sunday Reporter

 

The doom merchants who predicted a double dip in UK house prices “got it wrong”.

 

Experts at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) today claimed prices will increase around 4% this year.

 

They added that they will go up a further 5% in 2012, followed by 5.4% in 2013 and increase another 3.9% in 2014 because of a shortage of supply.

 

The predictions are at odds with a recent forecast from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research which said the market would fall 8% in real terms over the next five years.

 

Recent industry figures also raised fears the market bounce-back was over.

 

The Nationwide’s index showed a 0.5% drop in prices in July, the first decline recorded by the building society since February.

 

The number of people looking to buy has also fallen recently because of the uncertainty over jobs and the Government’s emergency Budget.

 

But the CEBR said: “Those forecasters projecting a double dip got it wrong.”

 

CEBR economist Benjamin Williamson said: “This doesn’t mean we will see dizzying house prices any time soon.

 

“Our forecasts show prices are unlikely to reach 2007 levels before 2013.”

 

/see: http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/14711...say-economists/

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Seems like some of us need reminding just how insane the UK property bubble is...

 

It's not only the UK. I run valuation models on both the UK and Aus. The former is where I live (and rent) now and will for some time so look to buy some day. The second is a likely retirement location.

 

The Economist recently ran some valuations and on their list of 19 countries Britain was number 6 with an overvaluation of 33.8%. Number 1 was Aus at 61.1% over valuation. Full list and some analysis from me :) here http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.c...k-property.html

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It's not only the UK. I run valuation models on both the UK and Aus. The former is where I live (and rent) now and will for some time so look to buy some day. The second is a likely retirement location.

 

The Economist recently ran some valuations and on their list of 19 countries Britain was number 6 with an overvaluation of 33.8%. Number 1 was Aus at 61.1% over valuation. Full list and some analysis from me :) here http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.c...k-property.html

Exactly. Have you seen Japan - it is undervalued by -37%!

And that's why I have put together a group of 10-11 high powered people (here in HK), who will be discussing the

idea of investing in Japanese property. / see: Japan Lessons

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Exactly. Have you seen Japan - it is undervalued by -37%!

And that's why I have put together a group of 10-11 high powered people (here in HK), who will be discussing the

idea of investing in Japanese property. / see: Japan Lessons

 

It was also interesting to note that countries which are seen as being relatively prudent - Switzerland and Germany - were also seen as under valued. Maybe the population of these countries has some form of financial education or a decent set of media which educates the masses about boom and bust. Maybe even the concept of value and affordability. They might even have regulators who don't let it get all out of hand and then try and close the door.

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WHAT HAS HAPPENED in the first half of 2009:

Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

When?: 18th? - 28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?

2009

J. : : 213,570 : 150,501 159,818 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%

F : : 216,163 : 147,746 160,327 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW

M : : 218,081 : 150,946 157,326 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%

A : : 222,077 : 151,861 154,716 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%

M : : 227,441 : 154,016 158,565 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%

J. : : 226,436 : 156,442 157,713 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%

=== == ====

 

BACK AT THE LOWS in April 2009,

Few saw that the Turn was already underway.

Here's the old survey from HPC in April 2009:

 

POLL: Speed of UK House price declines (118 member(s) had cast votes in April 2009)

 

How are you experiencing house price declines in your area of the UK?

[13.56%] : Property price falls are speeding up (16 votes )

[50.00%] : Crash cruise speed underway - prices are falling at a fairly steady rate (59 votes )

[16.10%] : The rate of decline has slowed noticeably (19 votes )

 

My belief about a bounce, or signs of stability, if we see them :

[50.00%] : There will be no bounce this year (59 votes )

[38.98%] : What I am seeing, will be nothing but a Spring bounce (46 votes )

[: 5.08%] : The stability could eventually lead to a recovery (6 votes )

 

Availability of finance that I am seeing :

[: 5.08%] : It is virtually impossible to borrow to buy a home where I am (6 votes )

[20.34%] : Loans can be obtained by those who have a 40-50% deposit, and sufficient income (24 votes )

[35.59%] : Mortgage loans of 70-75% LTV are available (42 votes )

/see: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...09612&st=30

This also fits that old 2009 psychology

xxxan.jpg

/source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=123808

 

A Bump up since then:

zzzzcf.png

/source-search: http://www.google.co.uk/trends?q=estate+agent

 

001cr.png

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UK house prices rose 0.6% in July, Halifax says

/ 4 August

Prices have changed very little during most of this year so far UK house prices have continued to stabilise, according to the latest report from the Halifax.

 

Prices rose 0.6% in July, the Halifax said, reversing a fall seen in June, but values have changed little since the start of the year.

 

The annual house price inflation rate fell from 6.3% to 4.9%, with the average property now costing £167,425 (SA).

== ==

 

48601081houseprices464.gif

 

Note that: the Nationwide averages typically TURN BEFORE Halifax, and we have seen that yet again.

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IN CASE you always wanted to know "WHY?", but were afraid to ask...

 

(I was asked this question by PM/email by poster from GEI, who I am quoting anonymously):

 

Hi Dr Bubb,

... (other comment) ...

The main reason why I am PMing you is just out of curiosity. You are American yes? You live in HongKong but you are very interested in UK property. Why is this? You do not seem to follow the US property market or any other property market with the same interest (with exception of HK)

 

Is it because you think that it is unique bubble unlike any other?

Why?

I lived in London for almost 20 years, and owned property there.

Who knows, I may want to return some day.

 

I do think it is a historical Bubble, and I can learn some useful lessons from a close study of it.

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48601081houseprices464.gif

Note that: the Nationwide averages typically TURN BEFORE Halifax, and we have seen that yet again.

What about Rightmove?

The asking prices turn even earlier, don't they?

 

More people are trying to buy and sell their own homes, which I suppose this shows:

 

zzzzd.png

 

And I think you might like this, Dr. B:

 

xxxbi.png

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Great charts !

It's nice to see "Green Energy" beating HPC. But I think that is do to interest in the search terms,

rather than in the related websites. It is interesting to see that "stock market crash" searches return to the same

level as "house price crash", after each big drop, as fears fade away.

== == ==

 

Commercial property is cyclical too, and may have a TRAP of its own coming, as this EXCERPT suggests:

 

UK property: 50 years of going in cycles

Can data from half a century of recessions predict UK property trends?

 

EXCERPTS:

Although we have seen plenty of property ups and downs over the past half century, this time looks different. Never before have we faced trying to rebuild our economy from the ruins of a global credit crunch that brought several of our biggest banks to their knees and prompted the Bank of England to slash interest rates to near zero and pump £200bn into the economy. As the effect of such a massive dose of emergency financial drugs begins to wear off, we face the real risk of seeing property prices start to fall back again as healthy economic recovery is proving elusive.

. . .

"Property is not a long-term hold, it is a trading asset," says Chris Northam, of Jones Lang LaSalle. "If you get it right, you can make a fortune."

And over the years many people have made many fortunes and, if they were smart, managed to avoid the worst falls which have happened in the 1970s, the early 1990s, and since 2007.

 

Patrick Vaughan and Raymond Mould, business partners who met in the 1960s, have earned a reputation as kings of calling the property cycle. With London & Stamford they are now on their third venture. They sold Arlington and retail-park developer Pillar just before previous market crashes.

The pair went into the 1970s downturn with cash, a period Vaughan describes as a "very messy market". He adds: "A lot of money [in the property market] came from fringe banks that were allowed to crash."

 

In contrast, the collapse in values in the early 1990s was linked to overdevelopment, as a string of new projects reached the market, such as Broadgate in the City of London. With this influx of new space, rental values and capital values crashed as the economy slowed down.

The fall between 2007 and 2009, which saw values drop 44pc, was a double-whammy caused by a lack of capital due to the banking crisis, and rental income falling as the recession damaged business demand for new space.

 

Lessons learned from the previous two falls suggest that values now face a period of stalling growth as banks look to reduce their exposure to the sector amid economy fragility and uncertain consumer spending. For those willing to play a waiting game, however, there could still be exciting opportunities.

 

/more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/7932270...-in-cycles.html

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Rightmove reports a price fall of 1.7%

 

Overview

New seller supply continues to outstrip demand, and as the holiday season continues, Rightmove

reports an average asking price fall of 1.7% (£4,091) across the 117,000 new properties added this

month. This is the biggest reduction in asking prices we have measured so far this year, and follows on

from the drop of 0.6% in July.

 

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove comments: “No one really wants to come to market in August

unless they have to. It shows these new sellers have a compelling need to sell, as they have lopped over

£4,000 off the average asking price. Those who marketed earlier in the year but have yet to find a buyer

may have to do a bit of pruning of their own to beat this new competition. Holidaying buyers can relax

on the beach while back at home sellers are reducing the cost of their future property by the price of

the family holiday”.

 

August and December are the two months of the year that traditionally see price falls. However, it

should be noted that this is the second consecutive monthly fall in a year that, until July, had only seen

rises. Following gains of 7.0% from January to June, prices have now fallen back by 2.3% in the last two

months. We predict that the gains made so far this year will have dissipated by year end, although there

could be some individual monthly rises in the more active months of September and October. However,

market conditions bear some similarities to the second half of 2008. Then prices fell by 7.1% between

August and the end of the year as buyers unwilling or unable to proceed left agents with unsold stock

levels similar to those currently being recorded by Rightmove.

 

Shipside adds: “There needs to be a spur to cause prices to rise. However, as mortgages won’t become

available to the masses and last year’s stock shortages show no sign of re-appearing, we can’t see it

happening during the remainder of 2010.

 

/more: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2010...august-2010.pdf

== == ==

 

Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

==========

J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 16X, - - - : £16X,- - - :

A : : 232,241 :

mom: -1.73%: -0.45% : +0.74% :

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The house next to me no longer has it's For Let sign. This was placed on the market early June at a rent of £4995 per week. It appears they may have a taker!! I hereby eat my previous predictions on the UK Prperty thread that they would never let it!

 

 

We now have confirmation; the lucky £5000 per week tenants are moving in today!

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