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Japanese Property - Lessons from the Long Correction

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More from that article.

 

''While many Japanese have historically remained at home until marriage because "living in sin" is still frowned upon, it's increasingly commonplace for young people to live with their parents out of economic necessity. Fumiaki Higuchi, a 30-year-old graphic design student, has tumbled from one low-paying job to the next in the decade or so since he graduated from high school, selling jeans one year and patrolling the floor of a pachinko gambling parlor the next. Higuchi moved out of his parents' home only briefly in his late 20s, when he and his wife pooled their paychecks to rent an apartment.''

 

 

I see plenty of this, especially returning divorced with kids.

 

And for the future of US/UK multigenerational families...

 

''It's not just Japanese who are seeking succor from their parents. In the United States, the proportion of 25-to-34-year-olds living in multigenerational households rose from 11 percent in 1980 to 20 percent in 2008.''

 

 

I'd love to know the exact figures for Japan.

 

The 'parasite singles' badge, I thought, was addressed to young professional female workers with plenty of cash for Gucci handbags, Audis and holidays with their girlfriends in Karuizawa or Singapore shopping trips.

 

Maybe there should be 2 classes of parasites. Those that want to be and those that have to be. In my own case I have a bit of a parasite extended family...but that is neither here nor there.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Right now is OBON. Festival of the dead, basically and nearly all japanese return to their family homes to pray (and bear gripes). This year would have Kunstler wriggling with invective as the motorways now cost 1000 yen, any distance, so you have everyone driving from Tokyo to their family homes. Meanwhile public transport takes it on the chin. Many ferry companies going bust and bus/train travel getting a good hammering. Happy Motoring Japan Inc is running smoothly...for the time being.

I try to nudge to my family members into talking about oil, economy, roads, future but there is so much ignorance and complacency from so called clever people that i give up. It is clear to me that humanity is buggered without awareness that will only come when directly confronted by the problems of what lies down the road. Then it will be too late. What a dumbass world we are. We will party to the grave.

 

 

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Just what it says...

 

Nikkei-225 led...

 

1/ Japanese property by about 1 year in putting in the top

 

2/ SPX stocks by weeks in going into big slides

 

Right now, N-225 is again showing signs of weakness, suggesting the other two might still be headed lower.

 

There's more than that to say, if you want to look more deeply

So 2013 for Japan property? Or late 2012? is this your thinking, (coz it it mine). If you have any other info please post or PM me, yes, I want to look more deeply (and want to get this right). I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on beginnings of a Japanese K spring. Personally I think rising interest rates and inflation will kick this off. We are not there yet but it might be close, w/in 2 years. My bones say get a low long fix soonish. Perhaps next year as we visit winter cold once again.

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These were first posted on the Gordon - Longwave thread:

 

1/

JAPAN - the bellwether for the Global Future of depopulating countries ?

======

 

Has it occurred to you that Japan may be showing us all the way into the sensible low growth/no growth future?

 

Some think that the Earth alresdy has too high a population to be sustained on a world with limited resources.

 

yourherenh2.gif / source

 

So maybe a shrinking population is actually a VERY GOOD THING. And Japan has found a sensible and humane and way to shrink, which entails:

 

+ Fewer marriages, and those marriages that do come are later

+ A vastly reduced birthrate

+ Rural areas being depopulated, as

+ People move to a few big cities for jobs, and a more interesting life

 

This helps to produce a Stock chart that looks like this :

 

Nikkei-225... update

zzzzw.gif

 

If this is the "sound & sensible" way forward, then maybe there will be no big rally or pick-up in equity or property prices after the "Japan" hump, just a long graceful decline lasting decades, interrupted by only brief rallies

 

2/

Maybe this is the new 'wave'. SHRINK or PERISH.

It implies the policies of the world are "up the creek" as they try to push endless growth.

Truly, I wonder if Bill Cooper has it right in his book, The Pale Horse.

 

Listen to this Video :

(Note: Jump in at 5mins. where he picks up the essential part of his story.)

 

If he is right then, there is an organised conspiracy to reduce Human population back to a sustainable level.

I think it is conceivable that the Japanese PTB are aware of this imperative, and want to achieve a shrinking

of their population without resorting to war, manufactured diseases, or other harsh and cruel means.

 

Of course, their method leaves the problem of: How does society look after all the old people.

Japan is facing this issue years ahead of most other countries.

 

By all accounts, despite its slow growth, Japan remains a good place to live. I hope that the US can face

its own problems: massive debts and an outmoded suburban living arrangement, with the same grace

that have the Japanese faced theirs.

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So 2013 for Japan property? Or late 2012? is this your thinking, (coz it it mine).

Here's a long dated chart that I marked up & then revised in early 2009:

003api7.png

 

To me, this suggested a low in 2011, based upon a fibonacci pattern, where lows came at points

determined by a fibonacci sequence, where lows came: 3, 5, 8, 13, and maybe 21 years

after the peak.

 

If you add: 21 years to 1990, you get 2011, which is the projected timing of the next low.

Here's what I wrote:

"We saw lows at Peak plus: 3, 5, 8, 13, ... 21 years should be next, eh? (that's late 2011?)"*

 

/see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5767

 

(Those charts on the link, suggested Lows were coming, proved remarkably accurate.)

 

A late 2011 low in Japanese stocks, would suggest a low in Japan property in 2012.

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Here's a long dated chart that I marked up years ago:

003api7.png

 

To me, this suggested a low in 2011, based upon a fibonacci pattern...

Great Chart! That will give CF confidence in his 2009 call on Japan's K winter bottom...IF we don't crash into 2011. I think we will. As you suggested property follows one year behind, hence my suggestion of 2012/2013.

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Great Chart! That will give CF confidence in his 2009 call on Japan's K winter bottom...IF we don't crash into 2011. I think we will. As you suggested property follows one year behind, hence my suggestion of 2012/2013.

Here's one that may be clearer to see:

002xc.png

 

And here's a focus on that "old low" back in 1980-82 .. data

003q.gif

 

And a close-up showing where we are now ... update:2008/10 : Daily-2010

003b.gif

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My friends see it going to between 4000-6000 before the (much traumatized) masses jump back in again. This is another reason why I think the US and the UK still has a long way to fall before people feel 'sick' of the stock markets.

 

Maybe 4000 is too pessimistic. 6-7000 isn't though.

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Maybe 4000 is too pessimistic. 6-7000 isn't though.

Here's where it traded in March 2009:

003tw.gif

The ideal target is 6,700-7,000, or more precisely: 6,850,

based upon where it traded on : Oct. 1, 1982 : 6849.78

 

If it closes below that level, then maybe something below 6,000 is possible

 

Meantime, 9,000 looks like a key support level, and that may be taken out this week.

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Here's where it traded in March 2009:

003tw.gif

The ideal target is 6,700-7,000, or more precisely: 6,850,

based upon where it traded on : Oct. 1, 1982 : 6849.78

 

If it closes below that level, then maybe something below 6,000 is possible

Well, whatever happens it will be on the tails of the Dow, so all eyes on US and see how October/November runs. I wonder what Prechter/Yelnick think of the Nikkei?

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If one takes Gordons Dow 1000 or Precters 400 call then presumably we'd see Nikkei 1500/2000.

It all sounds like madness, which it might be. Or it might not.

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... as posted on the E-wave thread ...

 

Japan's Nikkei 225 Set for `Dynamic' Third-Wave Rally: Technical Analysis

 

By Jonathan Burgos and Monami Yui - Aug 19, 2010

 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average may exceed its April high in a rally likely to start in the next two months, according to technical analysis by Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co.

 

The gauge climbed 49 percent from its March 2009 low through Aug. 31 last year, marking the first wave of a five- phase Elliott Wave rally, said Naohiko Miyata, chief technical strategist at the brokerage unit of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank by market value. Since then, the average has fallen 11 percent, forming the second wave, he said.

 

“What comes next is a long and dynamic rally,” Miyata said. “The third wave is usually the biggest advance.”

 

Miyata said the second wave will likely be completed by about October, with the index possibly finding a bottom at the 8,600 level. That would be a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement from the April high, according to Bloomberg data. Once the retracement is completed, the third-wave will start, the analyst said.

 

The wave principle is a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. He concluded that market moves follow a five-stage structure of three steps forward and two steps back.

 

/more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-20/j...l-analysis.html

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Bubb, what's your take on Mitsubishi UFJ EW analysis. They could be very right, this looks like a wave 2 correction IF last year was the bottom. I am not convinced, even though the timing is about right.

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Bubb, what's your take on Mitsubishi UFJ EW analysis. They could be very right, this looks like a wave 2 correction IF last year was the bottom. I am not convinced, even though the timing is about right.

"“What comes next is a long and dynamic rally,” Miyata said. “The third wave is usually the biggest advance.”

 

Don't buy before the low looks like it is in place. Then, maybe, you can make some money.

 

I have plenty of cash, and may do some buying after a 20-30% slide in US stocks, and maybe a smaller slide in Japan, if we see that.

 

What Japanese stocks do you like?

 

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"“What comes next is a long and dynamic rally,” Miyata said. “The third wave is usually the biggest advance.”

 

Don't buy before the low looks like it is in place. Then, maybe, you can make some money.

 

I have plenty of cash, and may do some buying after a 20-30% slide in US stocks, and maybe a smaller slide in Japan, if we see that.

 

What Japanese stocks do you like?

I don't yet...but when I do I'll like agricultural machinery like Kubota, supermarkets like Aeon, Sharp and the Electric power companies. I think Nissan/other Autos and Bikes will do well, too. If you have any stock picks be sure to let me know..I note Heiwa hasn't really budged much at all.

 

I know the third wave is usually long and broad, but I am not convinced we are on the edge of it. But Mitsubishi UFJ would like me to think I was.

Catflap has got me thinking, too.

 

Also I don't have lots of 'cash'... and my own business needs a bit of investment as a move is probably on the cards when the time and property is right. There will be a time for stocks but I just don't think it is now.

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Mainlanders ride to the rescue in Tokyo - says SCMP

 

Increasing interest from Chinese is giving new hope to the Japanese property market

SUMMARY:

+ Purchases by mainland Chinese is growing - & Japan is regarded as "safe and stable"

+ A property worth Yen 2 billion in 1997, is now priced at about Yen 200mn

+ Most expensive properties have dropped the most, and are cheaper than HK

+ Rental yields of 5-10% are possible

+ Most common ares for purchase: Tokyo and Hokkaido

 

 

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Mainlanders ride to the rescue in Tokyo - says SCMP

 

Increasing interest from Chinese is giving new hope to the Japanese property market

SUMMARY:

+ Purchases by mainland Chinese is growing - & Japan is regarded as "safe and stable"

+ A property worth Yen 2 billion in 1997, is now priced at about Yen 200mn

+ Most expensive properties have dropped the most, and are cheaper than HK

+ Rental yields of 5-10% are possible

+ Most common ares for purchase: Tokyo and Hokkaido

Ni Hao,

Tried to read but it is subscription...Why in the hell Hokkaido? Its as cold as Canada but has skiing/winter vac stuff. You can only grow potatoes and lavendar. 6 month winter, >minus 20-no thanks. Maybe they haven't got a clue? (Or maybe I haven't) :lol:

 

Japan 'safe and stable'? Umm, rewind to Kobe earthquake. 6000 dead. Tokyo 60+ years overdue. 3 Prime Ministers in a year. 12 in 18years. A debt bubble about to go off within 3 years. 95% dependant on energy imports. A country mired in a no growth no solution deflation/depopulation (maybe a good thing).

My own fantasy fear is that Japan will become the rice and water basket for China in the future. (ok a long way off). China will take revenge for the war/Beijing massacre EVENTUALLY. They could stop the ships bringing essentials and oil to japan when US exits. The Pacific will belong to China one day. Peacefully or by aggression I don't know. Japan is defenceless except for brains. Perhaps that is her best defence.

 

At the moment though it is lovely!

 

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Urgent Lessons from Japan on Economy, Debt and Stocks Bear Market

 

Sep 20, 2010 .. By: Martin_D_Weiss

 

Imagine a world where the economy never emerges from recession.

 

Imagine a time and place in which economists talk first of a double-dip recession, then about a triple-dip recession … and ultimately admit the dire reality of a long, multi-decade depression.

 

EXCERPTS

it’s the hard financial facts that tell the true story of Japan today:

 

Fact #1. Permanent recession. Since 1990, Japan’s economy has been in a permanent catatonic state — wavering from subpar growth to mild recession. An old friend, formerly director of a major Japanese economic research institute, calls it “the 20-year recession that never really ended and the 20-year recovery that never really began — in other words, a depression.”

 

Fact #2. Banking dinosaurs. Every major bank that has collapsed in the past 20 years has been patched up with mega-mergers and government aid. In 1999, for example, we saw the massive three-way marriage of the Industrial Bank of Japan, Dai-Ichi Kangyo, and Fuji Banks — all weak institutions loaded with toxic assets. Since then, we’ve seen several more. All have failed to revive the banking sector.

 

japan-chart.gif

Fact #3. 20-year bear market! Near the end of 1989, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Index reached an all-time peak of 38,957, promptly crashing by 47 percent in less than nine months … and ever since then, it has failed to recover those losses.

 

To the contrary …

 

• At its recent lows in 2009, the Nikkei was down to 7,021, a loss of 82 percent from its all-time high.

 

• Even after the global stock market recovery that began in March of last year, the Nikkei is at just 9,321, still down 76 percent from its highs!

 

• Since its first bust in late 1989, the Nikkei has enjoyed five major rallies. Each one raised investor hopes for an end to the 20-year bear market. And each one has given way to the dire economic realities — a new plunge, new all-time lows, plus big additional losses for investors.

 

Where Did Japan Go Wrong?

 

Japan was — and still is — a vibrant modern society of motivated, hard-working individuals. Its chronic malaise is not rooted in its culture or its people. It’s primarily caused by misguided government policy driven by political pressure to achieve the impossible.

 

Japan was the first major industrial nation to drop interest rates to practically zero and keep them there almost indefinitely.

 

Japan was the first to bail out so many large banks so consistently.

 

And Japan has also been the “leader” of fiscal stimulus. Japan launched a stimulus package of 10.7 trillion yen in August 1992 … another for 13.2 trillion in April 1993 … 6.2 trillion in September 1993 … 15.3 trillion in February 1994 … 14.2 trillion in September 1995 … 16.7 trillion in April 1998 … 23.9 trillion in November 1998 … and 18 trillion in November 1999 … plus many more such programs in the 2000s.

 

Yet after each government-engineered “recovery,” the economy fell back into recession; and after each government-inspired stock market rally, the Nikkei plunged again, falling to still lower lows.

 

At first, Japanese economists thought what they were witnessing was a “double-dip” recession just like the one we’re beginning to see in the U.S. today. But after subsequent rounds of stimulus also failed, it made little sense to call it a “triple-dip” or “quadruple-dip” recession. Ultimately, they were forced to admit that it was really one long, protracted depression.

 

Bottom line: Despite all the banking bailouts, stimulus programs, money printing and zero interest rates, all the emperor’s horses and all the emperor’s men could not put the Japanese miracle back together again.

 

The Japanese economy still suffered two lost decades of deflation, lackluster growth and declining stock prices.

 

Corporate earnings still fell. Consumers were still pinched.

 

Japan’s status as a world economic power continued to decline.

 

Investors lost fortunes and then lost still more fortunes — again and again.

 

The Wall Street Journal recently explained it this way:

 

“Keynesian ‘pump-priming’ in a recession has often been tried, and as an economic stimulus, it is overrated. The money that the government spends has to come from somewhere, which means from the private economy in higher taxes or borrowing. The public works are usually less productive than the foregone private investment.”

 

/more- http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22847.html

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I don't yet...but when I do I'll like agricultural machinery like Kubota, supermarkets like Aeon, Sharp and the Electric power companies. I think Nissan/other Autos and Bikes will do well, too. If you have any stock picks be sure to let me know..I note Heiwa hasn't really budged much at all.

 

I know the third wave is usually long and broad, but I am not convinced we are on the edge of it. But Mitsubishi UFJ would like me to think I was.

Catflap has got me thinking, too.

 

Also I don't have lots of 'cash'... and my own business needs a bit of investment as a move is probably on the cards when the time and property is right. There will be a time for stocks but I just don't think it is now.

 

bill arah who we are invested with thinks japan is poised for a massive rerating. kan is a bit slow, but he seems to mean business really. he wants to currency down and i think he will make it happen partly as specs fold and the Japanese economy is weak anyway.

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<b>Mainlanders ride to the rescue in Tokyo - says SCMP</b>

 

Increasing interest from Chinese is giving new hope to the Japanese property market

SUMMARY:

+ Purchases by mainland Chinese is growing - & Japan is regarded as "safe and stable"

+ A property worth Yen 2 billion in 1997, is now priced at about Yen 200mn

+ Most expensive properties have dropped the most, and are cheaper than HK

+ Rental yields of 5-10% are possible

+ Most common ares for purchase: Tokyo and Hokkaido

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110309f1.html

 

Is this bullish or bearish?

 

''Marcy Zhang, general manager of Crispins Property Consultancy in Shanghai, which is promoting property in Hokkaido, said most of her clients are wealthy Chinese who want getaway places overseas''

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http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110309f1.html

 

Is this bullish or bearish?

 

''Marcy Zhang, general manager of Crispins Property Consultancy in Shanghai, which is promoting property in Hokkaido, said most of her clients are wealthy Chinese who want getaway places overseas''

 

 

Chinese snap up Tokyo apartments-at least until yesterday. Maybe they'll think twice now.

 

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110312f1.html

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... from the Main UK property thread - relevant here too...

 

I think the great downsizing has already started, (even in Japan). I was reading that by 2030-50 there will be more single dwelling households than family dwelling here. Go figure :huh:

 

But bigger houses don't 'have to' mean married to consumer junk. You could have a larger family (against the trend) or you could be an extended family (on the increase)/community of like minds etc etc. Or you might have a buisness going, or be a smallholding/farm.

I am sure the smaller walkable homes thing will gain traction (esp with YOUR oil forecasts), in fact it already is/aspirations are. But life may get difficult in (parts of) the cities.

Knowing what you want. This is a tricky one and a difficult act to balance.

BTW can you start a thread tracking US walkable community house prices. Are they buccking the trend? I expect so. I'd also be interested in seeing some of these 100 oz US homes. Where and what are they like?

I found an interesting Japan foreclosed/real estate link btw...but I wouldn't even go to Tokyo at the moment, let alone buy. But that's just me. They just felt the 6.4 quake yesterday. And I don't think that is near over. Plus radiation/contamination, food sources all from Tohoku, all contaminated. But you may see that as a buying opportunity, blood on the streets kind of thing.

All the best! J.

 

Very good info here and links. Chris Dillon is mentioned. How is he?

 

http://www.facebook.com/RealEstateJapan

A Walkable Community Property Price Index for the US ?

That's an interesting idea - I suppose one could compare the Most Walkable with Least Walkable communities

 

I agree. I should make sense to stay away from Tokyo, and and maybe focus your life on the "most stable" parts of Japan, which may be to the North and to the West, I suppose. Have you found a map for Japan for the Post upheaval period, as may be produced by various psychics?

 

I haven't spoken with Chris recently, but I see that "Christopher Dillon" gives a thumbs up on that Facebook page you linked too. Perhaps you should be-friend him on Facebook, and pass on my regards. Then you might introduce yourself as a GEI member.

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Daily Telegraph

 

"Japan apartment 'most expensive in the world'

 

world is on sale in Tokyo with a price tag of a cool Y1.8 billion (£14.72 million).

Minami-Azabu-condo_2276496b.jpgHouse

 

Minami-Azabu is in west Tokyo and is being sold by Japan Sotheby's International Realty

 

By Julian Ryall in Tokyo

 

7:32PM BST 13 Jul 2012

 

comments.gif1 Comment

 

The House Minami-Azabu is spread over more than 4,430 square feet of a condominium building in the Minami-Azabu district of west Tokyo and is being sold by Japan Sotheby's International Realty. The price means that 1 square foot of the property costs £3,320.33.

 

The owner of the penthouse apartment – whom Sotheby's would only identify as a successful and married businessman – spent 18 months completely refurbishing the property from a four-bedroom family home.

 

Stone and wood imported from Italy has been used for the walls, flooring and doors, a Japanese "ryotei"-style dining room is designed specifically for dinner parties where the chef can serve guests directly from the kitchen.

 

A separate "casual" dining room has a Parisian-style terrace overlooking the neighbouring park. The bedroom includes an expansive walk-in closet, while the bathroom incorporates a hot-tub and a 60-inch television.

 

The storage for shoes in the entrance has space to accommodate 200 pairs of shoes, but the focal point of the property is the courtyard with a surrounding lounge area where guests can "enjoy the charming seasonal garden".

 

 

"We have been quite surprised at the interest that has been shown in the property so far," Mika Takemura, of Sotheby's, told The Daily Telegraph.

 

"We did not think we would get many inquiries at that price or with only one bedroom, but there have been several couples who have inquired about it," she said, adding that international businessmen who have to spend a couple of months in Tokyo every year have also expressed interest.

 

The company will not name the interested parties but Takemura said that they include "famous people in the business world".

 

The owner of the property is also selling off two more exclusive properties. A three-bedroom family home on the beach at Hayama, 90 minutes south of Tokyo and the summer residence of the Imperial Family, is on sale for Y1.3 billion (£10.63 million), while a vacation home in the mountain resort of Karuizawa is on the market for Y550 million (£4.5 million).

 

Takemura said the price of the Minami-Azabu and Hayama properties are negotiable if they are purchased together.

 

In contrast, a town on the most northerly Japanese island of Hokkaido is selling plots of land for pocket change.

 

The local authority of Yuni is selling 1 square meter (10.76 square feet) of building land for just Y120 (98p). In Tokyo, the same piece of land goes for an average of Y309,000 (£2,527).

 

The town, which is famous for Japan's largest herb garden and hot springs, has a population of 5,900 but that figure is being whittled away by around 100 people every year. Officials said they have had around 170 enquiries from prospective purchasers."

 

 

 

The ying and yang in Japan.

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