Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

gold getting hit hard today: -$16

Recommended Posts

another buying opportunity!- that's my quick opinion

 

but i shall be looking deeper... spot gold: $581.50 -$16.10

 

later:

GLD has gapped down to below $58, leaving a huge gap.

Currently on/very near key support at 252d ma

 

Meantime, oil/USO is back down testing its lows near $55,

as WTI crude falls to its recent lows under $60

 

= =

 

Gold extends losses on weaker oil, jewellers hold back

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Gold fell on Tuesday after healthy fuel inventories in the United States hit the price of crude oil, reducing the metal's safe-haven appeal as a hedge against inflation.

 

Spot gold slipped to $596,10/597,10 an ounce from $597,50/598,25 an ounce late in New York on Monday, when it had fallen more than $1 an ounce.

 

Gold hit a two-week high around $606 an ounce on September 28 on the back of a recovery in oil before dropping again to track a weaker energy market and a firmer US dollar.

 

The metal's failure to clear the resistance levels of $607 and $608 may trigger more selling that could drag down the price to around $580 an ounce, said dealers.

 

"It's looking weaker again at the moment. It doesn't really seem to have enough momentum to push to levels which may bring in more investment," said Darren Heathcote of Investec Australia in Sydney.

 

"For the time being, I think we are likely to test somewhere around $586 and possibly $573 thereafter if oil stays down at these sort of levels," he said.

 

. . .

Bullion may also track movements in the currency market after data showed US manufacturing growth slowed to its weakest in 16 months, bolstering speculation that a slowing economy could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

 

Falling interest rates tend to undermine the dollar and add to gold's lustre as an alternative investment. The dollar was little changed at 117,70 yen. The euro was also flat at $1,2740, after climbing to around $1,2760 on Monday.

 

Physical buyers in Asia, including in India, held back on purchases as they awaited lower prices.

 

"I think physical offtake will only be moderate because people have bought gold quite substantially in the last couple of days. They hold back a bit right now to see where the market is heading," said a dealer in Hong Kong.

 

 

...more: http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=94842

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DrBubb,

 

Found this artical on Forbes from last year.

 

http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletter...oapbox_inl.html

 

It talks about China buying Gold as an alternative to dollors. I remember many people suggesting the same thing this time last year and indeed into the spring this year, but that idea appears to have gone away. The Forbes artical seems to make sense to me so are the Chinese just hoping for Gold to fall in price?

 

I have tried to find sources of data on Chinese reserves but to no avail so far. I will keep looking and post anything I find.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OIL seems to be the key here:

 

1/ If it drops another $3-5, it may drag gold down to support at/ near $550,

 

2/ If it holds, and bounces from yesterday's low, we may be seeing the Gold lows too

 

Gold shares (so far) seem to be telling us that we are seeing 2/, above

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OIL seems to be the key here:

 

1/ If it drops another $3-5, it may drag gold down to support at/ near $550,

 

2/ If it holds, and bounces from yesterday's low, we may be seeing the Gold lows too

 

Gold shares (so far) seem to be telling us that we are seeing 2/, above

 

Interesting. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation. Oil is clearly a major variable in the inflation equation, but it is not the only one. Labour costs and money supply are also important variables. Given the fact that labour costs and costs in general are rising in China (a major source of cheap labour) and the huge rise in the money supply, you would have thought that Gold would be rising.

 

I get the feeling that either the market is somewhat transfixed with the price of oil, or perhaps both the price of oil and gold are being manipulated downwards. US mid terms perhaps?

 

On the personal side if it does go down to $550 I will be back to square one. The irritating fact will be that I jumped back in too early having called the top pretty accurately, with some help for your good self. :( Oh well you live and learn. ;)

 

By the way thanks for all your insights. Always informative (although I still do not always understand some of the jargon, I am learning). Thanks.

 

FTBagain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just found this artical.

 

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20060921184508.shtml

 

Russia could well be buying more gold in the future, although they may have significant natural deposits to mine, I have seen some quotes suggesting that they may want to increase the proportion of their reserves held in Gold from 3% to 5% by the end of 2007. I doubt they could mine 100+ tonnes in a year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

at the moment, gold traders are taking their cues from the oil market

(and maybe some middle eastern oil wealth is doing so too)

 

it is not always the case

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

excerpt:

 

Bank of France blamed for gold sell off

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 05/10/2006)

 

Central banks may have dumped far more gold on the markets over the last three weeks than officially reported, accounting for the sudden plunge in prices that has stunned investors. Barclays Capital said Europe's banks had sold an extra 100 tonnes from reserves in a rush to meet a quota deadline on September 26, but had done so by selling through forward contracts that disguised the effect.

 

advertisement"We have been able to infer this from trading patterns. It has had a major impact on the markets," said Costanza Jacazio, the bank's gold expert. Barclays is one of the world's three top bullion traders.

 

"We suspect that the Banque de France has been involved," she said.

 

The huge sales would help explain why gold's brutal fall from $640 an ounce in early September to $559 this week, an effect compounded in recent days by hedge fund liquidation. It was up slightly yesterday at $569.75 in New York trading.

 

= =

 

IRONIC, IF TRUE

...since it was France's buying decades ago which helped to trigger the rush to $850 in 1979-80

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"another buying opportunity!- that's my quick opinion

but i shall be looking deeper... spot gold: $581.50 -$16.10"

 

AND SO IT WAS: GLD chart

 

gold now: $640 at the beginning of 2007 (GLD is $63.21)

 

= =

 

Looks like some selling will come into gold, here in early 2007 too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"another buying opportunity!- that's my quick opinion

but i shall be looking deeper... spot gold: $581.50 -$16.10"

 

AND SO IT WAS: GLD chart

 

gold now: $640 at the beginning of 2007 (GLD is $63.21)

 

= =

 

Looks like some selling will come into gold, here in early 2007 too

 

Yea but why has it just plummeted about $20? Looking at a kitco chart it rose to about $645 then sold heavy all the way down to about $625?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I shall be looking for another buying opportunity- but we are not there yet IMHO

 

I reckon it will get closer to $600, and maybe breech it. We need to keep an eye on oil here again also

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I shall be looking for another buying opportunity- but we are not there yet IMHO

 

I reckon it will get closer to $600, and maybe breech it. We need to keep an eye on oil here again also

 

 

$602

 

I must admit i actually regret buying gold, its done more damage to my bank balance than inflation ever could of.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THIS AREA, right near $600 is my target.

 

It could for further, but I am buying calls on gold shares here, because there may well be support at $600.

 

Pity you bought gold, chuz. Rather than gold shares.

but i do think you can make money from $600. what did you pay?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
THIS AREA, right near $600 is my target.

 

It could for further, but I am buying calls on gold shares here, because there may well be support at $600.

 

Pity you bought gold, chuz. Rather than gold shares.

but i do think you can make money from $600. what did you pay?

 

Lets just say my break even without continual account costs is £369 per OZ, thats the break even of my bullion holding. Ive lost plenty on gold shares too, OXS and AGLD taught me another lesson. All i can do it sit tight and cross my fingers which doesnt sit well with me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Guest

I'm with you Chuz. All I seem to have done with Gold is lose money whilst other people are making it... :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Lets just say my break even without continual account costs is £369 per OZ, thats the break even of my bullion holding. Ive lost plenty on gold shares too, OXS and AGLD taught me another lesson. All i can do it sit tight and cross my fingers which doesnt sit well with me.

 

You're not the only one chuz, i need £350 to break even on my bullion and I really don't know much about shares.... However, reading other peoples posts we're not alone!

 

Indi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what are you guys buying, and when did you buy it?

 

My main portfolio has approximately doubled in the last year.

I have been focussing on tax bargains, and will now be hunting for more cheap pp's,

and attractively priced energy stocks.

 

buying "hot" stocks, whether they are resource stocks or not, is not a smart way to play the market

 

and i have always said that i prefer gold shares, and junior miners to bullion.

perhaps you need to take this point on board.

 

and personally, i am not of the buy-and-hold persuasion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Guest
what are you guys buying, and when did you buy it?

 

My main portfolio has approximately doubled in the last year.

I have been focussing on tax bargains, and will now be hunting for more cheap pp's,

and attractively priced energy stocks.

 

buying "hot" stocks, whether they are resource stocks or not, is not a smart way to play the market

 

and i have always said that i prefer gold shares, and junior miners to bullion.

perhaps you need to take this point on board.

 

and personally, i am not of the buy-and-hold persuasion

 

Ive got a decent chunk of gold and silver with goldmoney, so obviously there are transaction costs involved with buying and holding, Ive recently started buying sovereigns and britannias to straddle both markets. Ive sold all my gold shares some time back (juniors), I made some decent money a long time back but that has been wiped out by some significant losses.

 

Personally im just a shit investor, i can come to terms with that :lol: Well my buying isnt to bad but my risk management is awful. Ive got a very high risk threshold which back fires with substantial losses, My investment stratagy is no good and needs re-evaluating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ive got a decent chunk of gold and silver with goldmoney, so obviously there are transaction costs involved with buying and holding, Ive recently started buying sovereigns and britannias to straddle both markets. Ive sold all my gold shares some time back (juniors), I made some decent money a long time back but that has been wiped out by some significant losses.

 

Personally im just a shit investor, i can come to terms with that :lol: Well my buying isnt to bad but my risk management is awful. Ive got a very high risk threshold which back fires with substantial losses, My investment stratagy is no good and needs re-evaluating.

 

A more 'politcial' description would be 'im an agressive investor'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Guest
A more 'politcial' description would be 'im an agressive investor'

 

A rose by any other name, im shit :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dr Bubb would disagree, but he's a better trader than most, but Puplava and many others would say, 'Hang on to your positions. There will be huge corrections - 30% or more - but just hang on and enjoy the ride.'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've sold out all my positions except for hanging on to some physical gold. The breakdown in crude is looking pretty decisive and scary. I laughed when on Vish's Lehman thread the guy hinted at sub-$50 crude. Looking very likely now. I can only imagine gold and silver will get clobbered too.

 

That said, nothing had changed from a longterm fundamental perspective and I will be looking to buy back in again later in the year. Actively looking at gold numismatics at the moment.

 

Could be some great buying opportunities ahead if we hold our nerve!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×