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ziknik

I’ve paid off the mortgage on my mansion!!!!

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This month there are 8 houses for sale (like mine, in my area and on RightMove) = 14% increase from the previous month

 

4 are Sold STC No Change

0 is Under Offer No Change

4 are For Sale 33% increase

 

The balance is tilling towards lack of demand

 

The mean asking price is 12.9% higher than I paid for mine. An increase of 0.5% on the month

 

3 Houses have sold in the last three months according to http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php

 

The average sold price is 0.5% more than I paid. A 0.5% decrease on the month

=============

 

An interesting month with asking prices increasing while supply is increasing. Sold prices are decreasing.

 

Next month, I will be able to produce a QoQ comparison.

 

I'm aware I've got a very small sample area and the data will be volatile - There's not really anything I can do about it except hope the volatility averages out over time.

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This month there are 8 houses for sale (like mine, in my area and on RightMove) = 14% increase from the previous month

. . .

Next month, I will be able to produce a QoQ comparison.

 

I'm aware I've got a very small sample area and the data will be volatile - There's not really anything I can do about it except hope the volatility averages out over time.

It is good to become s solid expert on one area, and see how its gyrations compare with the index

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It is good to become s solid expert on one area, and see how its gyrations compare with the index

You've inspired me to track a little more closely. I'll knock up some charts soon.

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You've inspired me to track a little more closely. I'll knock up some charts soon.

 

 

Try and get over 35 houses in the sample. You can use the central limit theorem in your calculations and get some interesting stats.

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It’s difficult for me to increase the sample size of properties on RightMove without including different types of house in the same area or the same type of house in different areas. Increasing the sample size in this way doesn’t really help me track the price of my house.

 

There’s currently 8 houses on right move, and I have all the property bee data for them. I can produce charts of:

 

Number of houses for sale (including No. for sale, No. SSTC & No. Under offer)

Average time on the market (or time to go SSTC)

Average Asking Price

 

Can you think of any more charts I can produce with the RightMove / Property Bee data?

 

 

I was plugging a load of sold price data into my spreadsheet last night and I have started to produce a scatter graph. I’ve only got my own street on it at the moment but it is looking pretty good as it shows volume and price over time. I will post the chart here when I’ve got a few more streets on it. I will use this chart to track my house against the HaliWide/LR indexes.

 

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Interesting chart, Z.

 

Seems like your street has massively outperformed the index.

And the recent weakness in your area is not fully-reflected in the blue line you have drawn

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The blue line is a ‘poly trend line’ put in automatically by Excel. It’s the best fit I can get from the available options. I do agree it looks a little high, but I think it will sort itself out as more data becomes available.

 

The thing I notice from the chart is the lack of sales during the crash. It looks like there’s only 4 sales during the crash and three of them sold around peak prices.

 

I’m going to add another 6 streets to the chart at the weekend.

 

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The blue line is a ‘poly trend line’ put in automatically by Excel. It’s the best fit I can get from the available options. I do agree it looks a little high, but I think it will sort itself out as more data becomes available.

 

The thing I notice from the chart is the lack of sales during the crash. It looks like there’s only 4 sales during the crash and three of them sold around peak prices.

 

I’m going to add another 6 streets to the chart at the weekend.

I agree, more data may help.

The Blue MA just doesnt look right to me, perhaps it is a bit of a Moving Average, rather than using just very current data

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I'm not trading anything new this month. Instead I am going to beef up the margins on the USDJPY long I took on last month.

 

5 Months in, I am 20% down :(

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I've gone long USDJPY this month. Last time USDJPY hit 85, we got a decent sized bounce. I'm hoping for a similar thing again.

 

Sadly, that's the entire depth of my analysis.

 

My Previous BP trade is looking OK. I'm around 25% up at the moment.

Japan intervened in the currency markets last night driving the Yen from 82.88 to 85. My position is slightly underwater.

 

I have an opportunity to get out with a small loss at the moment.

 

I wonder if interventions are like buses (you wait 6 years for one and then 3 come along at once).

 

I will watch for a few days to see what happens. I do feel we will get to 86 ro 87

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-15/j...s-recovery.html

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I think I'm correct to keep holding my USDJPY long. Looks like the BofJ has a warchest for continued intervention.

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/15...fake-movements/

 

The Bank of Japan is said to have sold a total of about $11-$12bn worth of yen into the market on Wednesday to buy dollars, according to traders and brokers at Tokyo’s biggest FX trading operations.

 

But that would seem a mere trifle given strong rumours that the BoJ has another Y10,000bn ($117bn) to back up Wednesday’s efforts.

 

Might not be plain sailing though (from the same article)

 

Some well-informed strategists maintain their view that the current intervention will come to nought and the yen will resume its upward path. SMBC, for one, in a Wednesday note predicted that the Japanese currency would reach a record high of Y79.75 within this year. Intervention, noted SMBC’s chief strategist Daisuke Uno, “will only help ease the yen’s sudden surge” for now.

 

With the potential for false starts from the same article)

 

Based on the previous experience, he says, the MoF/BoJ will probably intervene intermittently in coming weeks or months. At the same time, he warns, be careful - as there will be a lot of “fake” movements, where the market just pushes up USD/JPY as rumours spread although no actual intervention will take place: “The market will be full of speculation which will lead to volatile moves”.

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...

Number of houses for sale (including No. for sale, No. SSTC & No. Under offer)

Average time on the market (or time to go SSTC)

Average Asking Price

 

Can you think of any more charts I can produce with the RightMove / Property Bee data?

...

Ta daaaaa

 

92374768.png

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

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