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Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2017. The Diary's 105th Month : Still on Peak watch A Major Victory for Common Sense, against AntiFa & the forces of darkness - see thread ================ DrBubb's Diary - Oct. 2017 Trading - v.105 ================ The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) .. update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio / The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other. Ratio: SPX-to-GLD - there's resistance at 200% : ie 2x th3 Gold Price Date----- : - SPY- : - GLD- : Ratio : Comment------------ 12-29-08 : $86.91 : $86.35 : 1.006 : Chart period begins 09-06-11 : 116.99 : 182.90 : 0.640 : near Gold peak (of $1800 12-02-15 : 208.53 : 100.69 : 2.071 : near Gold low (of $1045.40; GLD: 100.23) 02-11-16 : 182.86 : 119.05 : 1.535 : near SPX low (of $1810.10; SPY: 181.09) 06-30-17 : 241.80 : 118.02 : 2.049 : Latest: may retest R-2.07+ and rollover ======= Notes: R-0.64 at Gold peak x 1.618= 1.035 / x 1.618 x2 = 2.070 Target for Ratio & SPY peak? "US Stocks-in-Euros" ... SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE Ratio ... update This Ratio - SPX to Euros seems to move in a nice clear channel DrBubb's "Early Warning System" Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.) ===== Bullish Percentages : BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices "Big Three" Charts (SPY, GLD, DXY) ... 10d-Intraday : 6mos-D : 2yrs-D : 5yrs-D // CUvsGLDvsCRB RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY lower ====== US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - : end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 : end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 : end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 : end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 : end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 : end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 : end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 : end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 : end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 : end16 (2016) 01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 : 02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 : 03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 : 04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 : 05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 : 06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0 07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0 08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 : ===== ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x : Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - : ====== "GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/ The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b cox cvn