No6

The thing to note is that juniors have been trading with financial stocks, not like gold.

 

If we get Martin Armstrong's turn this weekend, then hopefully the bottom is in for juniors.

 

However, if gold and silver continue to sell off the juniors will get further hammered. It's kind of heads you lose, tails you lose.

 

In The Privateer Newsletter, Bill Buckler wrote:

 

When Buying Becomes Cheap:

As can already be seen from coast to coast inside the US, housing is falling in price. Supply is enormous

and still climbing. The same situation, in principle, applies to all areas of a credit money system economy

as credit contracts. The economic areas where prices will be falling are the areas which earlier were the

greatest recipients of credit during the upswing. Since the business cycle is always a follower of the

credit cycle, it follows that the business cycle will here too follow the present downswing of the US credit

cycle. That is why a steep US economic recession is now unavoidable, regardless of any and all

“facilities” the Bernanke Fed will try to roll forward. The real issue is CAPITAL.

 

Juniors have been a just such beneficiary of all this credit.

Business needs the banks and what happens if the financial sector tightens up? I just wonder how many juniors may run into cashflow problems? Also, the mining sector have to pay the increased costs of rising commodity/energy prices just like everyone else.

Many may be happy to see the banks getting what they deserve, but the knock on effect to all sectors of the world economy could be disastrous when you think about it.

You have a good point - however, there will be gold dealers who will buy your gold from you.

What's the alternative at the moment - hold onto your US$$??

In the event of societal collapse, people with guns may well take it off you. Just who would you trust?

No the Fed aint as good as Foreman - if Foreman had used the right tactics on the night he could have probably beaten Ali (wouldn't have got near him when he was in his prime though)

 

whereas the Fed has ultimately got no chance

 

More like Sugar Ray Robinson vs Les Dennis

Bought a dvd recently that had the Ali v Foreman fight on it. It was hot, and Foreman who was used to knocking them down in 2 rounds or less, just punched himself out of it. Ali was amazing though, but paid for it later.

Quite fancy watching Sugar Ray v Les Dennis. Pro celebrity boxing, surprised Sky haven't jumped on the idea.

Given where the Dow is now, maybe they should have held their nerve longer?

They may get it back tomorrow.

Even the BBC have $1000 gold as a headline story.

It was the no 1 most emailed story for a while earlier today.

As of now.

1* Google your way to a wacky office

2* NZ dolphin rescues beached whales

3* Taylor 'made rebels eat enemies'

4* Schizophrenia memory differences

5* Gold hits $1,000 for first time

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

No4 must be a story about Bernanke.

Not strictly to do with gold, but this clip with Schiff from 2006 is very amusing. Some of the statements from Arthur Laffer, a CNBC favorite, are almost unbelievable -

 

eg. the U.S. economy has never been in better shape", and "monetary policy is spectacular". I kid you not.

 

 

The clip - watch the whole thing. It gets better and better.

Is that the same Laffer that said this about oil? I think so.

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....20&start=20

I'm not a spreadbetter, but I know that very tight stops will get knocked out EVERY time, particularly in volatile markets like gold and silver. The market makers are very skillfull at knocking out stops and do it constantly.

 

You'll be knocked out before any rise takes place and once that's happened a few times, the commission fees and spreads will have severely reduced your capital.

I think to some degree that is true, you can get taken out very quickly, unless you move your stops. With tight stops your timing has to be perfect every time or you are trying to scalp a few points. I had a 25 point stop on a trade on the DOW the other night and it was taken out in 4 minutes. A minute later the market went in my direction, but I chose not to move the stop because of the risk of further loss. Some you win, some you lose! On tight stops you will probably lose a lot unless you are quick.

First he sells our gold then he uses the name for mortgages that are going to be tomorrows repos. Everyone with 1/4 of brain knows the Gold standard implies backed by gold. I would like to know what or who is the "GOLD" in the gold backed mortgage? Is the bank of Northern Rock. Maybe the buffoon thinks the rock in Northern Rock is made of Gold.

 

It uses the be Rule Britannia; now it is Insanity Rules.

Perhaps you get a gold plated plaque from the bank telling you that you are the proud owner of a Gold Standard mortgage. Northern Rock's will come with a Government guarantee no doubt.

After selling UK's gold at the lowest price for decades, the fat and incompetent world's best rogue trader, Gordon Brown, has decided to hi-jack the GOLD name for one of his cocker maimy schemes. I as a citizen object profusely:

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/uk-t...3D811F094D82%7D

 

The proposed "gold standard" seal would be reserved for groups of mortgage-backed securities made up of loans that meet higher standards of creditworthiness and quality thresholds, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.

 

 

A good fiction writer couldn't make some of this stuff up himself.

Gold standard mortgages. Just in time for the crash. You couldn't make it up.

I am surprised Doc hasn't said hello

The Dr is on his travels at the moment (see market comments thread, March - first post). I'm sure that he will be saying hello to everyone in due course.

The owner of HPC is one Brendan McLoughlin.

 

Financial Planner is a very active poster on this board. he's recently turned relatively bullish on the US banking sector and if not bearish then certainly less bullish on gold. His opinions are his own but i don't think he'd change his opinions for a "bung" . . .

FP has been pretty consistant in his views as regulars here will know.

Brendan ocasionally posts on here.

Absolutely. In fact with the DOW so close to the 12000 precipice I can't see the Fed waiting until the 12th for the next rate cut. I reckon there will be an emergency one this week.

DOW is attempting a last hour fightback like yesterday.

Evening all, hope you have had a good day so far.

I'm just about to have a look at the Dow. Seems a little poorly to me.

Welcome to all the new members. Hope you enjoy your stay. Look forward to reading your comments.

my investing has succeeded beyond even my wildest dreams:

 

+ One of my two core portfolios is up 1000% (that's 10 times!) since May 2004. While the other has done nearly as well, but its month-by-month performance is harder to measure since I "raid it" frequently to cover my living expenses, pay taxes and make other investments, like Hong Kong property,

That is pretty impressive and the question of what constitutes a "core" portfolio and the best strategy to use is probably a topic worth doing in its own right.

According to latest data, Ken and Chelsea continues to rise at an annualized rate of 27%.

 

Rises also for Hammersmith and Fulham and Westminster.

 

This 'crash' hasn't reached prime Central London yet.

I think when you look at prices in these areas and those who are buying they are hardly representative of the UK. Falls in the last quarter for a couple of them though.

Kensington And Chelsea

Average Cost: £1,118,429

Detached: £13,075,000

Semi-detached: £3,183,333

Terraced: £2,872,570

Flat: £748,102

Change in last quarter: 3.6%

Change in last year: 24.9%

Sales: 590

=====================

Hammersmith And Fulham

Average Cost: £539,736

Detached: £0

Semi-detached: £901,621

Terraced: £891,075

Flat: £400,946

Change in last quarter: -7.5%

Change in last year: 21.7%

Sales: 651

=====================

City Of Westminster

Average Cost: £688,467

Detached: £4,473,666

Semi-detached: £1,496,250

Terraced: £1,559,879

Flat: £616,643

Change in last quarter: -11.1%

Change in last year: 20.4%

Sales: 1019

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ces/html/bk.stm

The 2008 is a special year, maybe some travelers from the future would make it the year zero and prevent the year zero for Iran by doing something against the war …

You never know, maybe in the future it is Iran that is the superpower! All possible timelines.

2008 as year zero?

Two scientists have suggested that the latest experiments in CERN’s laboratory could rip a hole in space time that would allow more sophisticated civilisations in future years to come back in time.

The CERN laboratory, the European particle physics Centre near Geneva, houses the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) which will be switched on later this year, as scientists continue their research into the birth of the universe.

But Russian mathematicians Irina Aref'eva and Igor Volovich have suggested that the experiment could feasibly create a window that future generations, with better technology, could exploit to revisit the past; making 2008 ‘year zero’ for time travel.

New Scientist Magazine reports the news, unveiling that the LHC could create small black holes that would essentially create one end of a potential ‘time-tunnel’.

http://tech.uk.msn.com/features/article.as...umentid=7476748

From Moneyweek

Over the last week, the price of coal has soared to a new record.

Thermal coal prices jumped to $116.44 a tonne at Australia's Newcastle port, which is the benchmark coal price for Asia. This represents a staggering rise of $23.09 in just a week. That’s a staggering increase of 25%...!

Not only is demand very high, but the supply chain is in trouble. China’s chilly winter is playing havoc with transport and electricity shortages mean mine output is being hit. The country has therefore declared that it will not export any coal in February and March…

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/41894/never-...aking-coal.html

We've already had huge falls in base metal stocks and some base metal prices as everyone is pricing in a recession.Check out this link (click on "metal producers") for charts that show that the money flow into the base metal stocks has turned around and is now going up. Will prices follow?

 

http://www.willain.com/EV/index.html

Good link.

The Frank Barbera forecast is an interesting one. Don't fight the Fed. His argument seems to be based on the fundamentals that the market will price in recession for the metals and commodities. He suggests that if gold goes through $950 then his bearish view would change.

A drop to $650 would be great for anyone wanting to buy on the dips. Same for any falls in other metals and commodities.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

Two of the bigger players are Anglo American and Lonmin.

http://www.angloamerican.co.uk/ourbusiness...esses/platinum/

http://www.lonmin.com/

I see your point.

But MAJOR gold stocks (HUI) had been rising, while the stock indices (SPX) were falling.

Until yesterday.

 

Here's a chart, showing the ratio : HUI-to-SPX

 

 

The gap near 0.33 needs filling, and a pullback to 0.31 would not be surprising.

The strong rally off that clear mid-Dec. low would remain intact, if 0.30-0.31 holds

I think the retail investor is spooked right now. There are many probably sitting on heavy falls, even of good stocks, and many will have day jobs where it is not possible to react to current market conditions. You wouldn't want a stock market dependant pension maturing right now would you? Perhaps there will be a flight to safety, can't go wrong in bricks and mortar.

In an ironic way, if the Fed cuts by 0.50 at the end of the month and the market bounces, junior minors may then out-perform on the back of this.

To answer the question slightly differently, why would you buy any stocks in current market conditions? In the minds of many investors, stock markets falling = stocks, any stocks falling = stay away.

492p now!!!

 

I like this stock. The 4th largest (maybe larger) silver miner in the world and its profile is so low. Leveraged gold and silver action in one stock - and us Brits can buy it!!!

Hochschild Mining(HOC)

Some of the Directors have been selling. Don't like to see that. I think it is due a rest, been overbought for a while.

13-Nov-07 Sell Roberto Dañino 440.00p 1,725,000 £7,590,000.16

13-Nov-07 Sell Alberto Beeck 440.00p 8,500,000 £37,400,000.81

So, is oil due a correction? BP announce today a "dreadful" 3rd quarter and now according to Saudi Arabia's oil minister, "The market is in turmoil, let's leave it at that''.

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $79 a barrel in New York as production resumed after a storm passed through the Gulf of Mexico and Saudi Arabia's oil minister said energy markets are ``in turmoil.''

 

``The market is in turmoil, let's leave it at that,'' the minister, Ali al-Naimi, said today in an interview in New York. He wouldn't comment further.

 

Crude oil fell as low as $78.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today as output increased in the Gulf. Prices shot to a record after an OPEC decision last week raised concern that supplies would be insufficient to meet demand during the Northern Hemisphere's winter.

 

``To a certain extent, Al-Naimi's right, the market has got completely confused with the financial aspects, the banking in collapse,'' said Rob Laughlin, a senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``He's just saying the recent spike up is overdone, and they're looking for an understandable correction.''

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

From the website http://www.hochschildmining.com/company/index.php

 

Hochschild Mining is a leading precious metals company with a primary focus on the exploration, mining, processing and sale of silver and gold.

 

We are the 4th largest primary silver producer*.

 

In 2006, we produced 11.6 moz of silver and 196 koz of gold which equates to 23.3 moz silver equivalent.

 

Hochschild Mining has over forty years experience in the exploration, evaluation and extraction of precious metal epithermal vein deposits.

 

________________________

 

Market cap £1.05 billion!!!

 

You've heard of 'em now Frizzers!

I've been following Hochschild Mining as well. FTSE 250 company which may well be the reason why they are not known (as against say Canadian and US juniors). You must be able to put this one in an ISA as well, so they are probably worth a look.

Good write up below.

Hochschild is worth perusing

 

Mining stocks have been among the worst hit by the market turmoil, with the UK sector down nearly 30 per cent from its high in early July. Stellar results by mining giant BHP Billiton on Wednesday helped the sector claw back some of the recent losses but there is still value to be had. We have long been fans of big miners such as Rio Tinto and Anglo American and remain buyers of both. Among the small-caps, we think Hochschild Mining (319.25p) is worth a look. The Peru-based company is one of the world’s leading silver producers. Its origins trace back to Chile in 1911 when it was set up by Mauricio Hochschild, a German immigrant, as a base-metals company. By the 1960s it had become one of the world’s largest mining groups, similar in size to Rio Tinto.

 

However, in 1984, the South American operations were sold to Anglo American. In the same year, Hochschild bought Anglo’s Peruvian interests, creating the foundations of the present group. The company listed in London last November, raising £270m. It aims to spend the bulk of the proceeds to expand its three existing mines in Peru and to develop fully another four silver projects in Mexico, Argentina and Peru. It said recently it is on track to meet its target to produce 26m ounces of silver equivalent this year. Shares in the company have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past two weeks and they are 25p off the original offer price of 350p. We can think of no apparent reason for the fall. Strong global demand for silver should underpin the shares. Buy on weakness.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...cxequity126.xml