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No6

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  1. For those interested in the UK market, dividend payers, etc, you might find my blog of interest.

     

    http://sevenpillarstrading.blogspot.co.uk/'>http://sevenpillarstrading.blogspot.co.uk/

     

    Sample.

     

    Why dividends should count

     

    While some are arguing that further stock market falls or a bear market lies ahead, a strange thing has been happening on the FTSE in that dividend payments for many companies have been on the rise the last 3-4 years and in a low IR, especially for savings, relatively high inflationary environment, ultimately good solid companies with a reasonable history of rising dividends should be in demand. If the market falls further, the dividend yield will rise.

     

    For anyone who is a long term buy and hold investor, the ideal scenario is one where over time you get both capital appreciation in a rising share price and a rising dividend payment. The earlier in terms of their growth that you catch such companies the better. Robbie Burns, AKA The Naked Trader, often finds future big dividend payers in the smaller company sector, but often the FTSE350 will throw up anomalies in the potential dividend payment of well established stocks especially during times of crisis.

     

    http://sevenpillarstrading.blogspot.co.uk/


  2. Well the strong rally took much, much longer to arrive than I thought but at last its here and those out of the money options are now showing very handsome returns.

    With strong Q3 results from many companies and low PE valuations I expect markets to go higher but I started selling options today and taking off the leverage in case im wrong.

     

    You on holiday no.6 ?

     

    Not on holiday, but I seem to be coming here less and less these days. My own interests are mainly UK market based and there isn't much discussion around here for that, so I have less reason to post as it is easy to feel that you are talking to yourself!

     

    Your call above was a pretty good one considering yet another Greece spanner in the works.


  3. Hefty rise in UK price inflation today. BoE on alert to not do anything.

     

    The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation in the UK matched its record high in September, rising to 5.2% from 4.5% the month before.

     

    An increase in energy costs was behind a large proportion of the rise.

     

    The 5.2% rate is the highest CPI measure since September 2008, and it has never been higher since the CPI measure was introduced in 1997.

     

    The Retail Prices Index (RPI) - which includes mortgage interest payments - rose to 5.6% from 5.2%.

     

    The latest RPI measure is the highest annual rate since June 1991.

     

    The Office for National Statistics, which released the data, said in a statement: "By far the largest upward pressure to the change in CPI... came from increases in gas and electricity charges.

     

    "There were also large upward pressures from air transport and communication services."

     

    Bills for gas and electricity have risen 9.9% in the past month, and are up 18.3% on the year.

     

    Transport has risen 12.8% on the year, and food was 6% higher than 12 months ago.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15344297

     

    But, as we heard on the Today programme on Tuesday morning (0750), there are plenty of critics who would see the 5.2% inflation rate as further damning evidence that the Bank of England has run away from its job.

     

    In my recent interview with Governor Mervyn King, he insisted that "allowing" this inflation to occur had been the lesser of two evils: had the bank sought to avoid it, the economy would have slipped back into recession and everyone - including pensioners and savers - would have been worse off.

     

    In the Bank's view of the world, the single greatest threat for a highly indebted economy, coming out of a major financial crisis, is deflation - falling prices - which can push you into a downward spiral, like Japan.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15351667

     


  4. Markets beginning to look quite strong again despite the type of negative news that a month or so ago would have sent them down. This for me is a strength, a sign that baring something major actually happening, a default, the markets have priced in a level of doom and gloom that they do not want to go below. As I've mentioned before, when it suits them to use the news to sell off, profit taking, that is what they will do, but this still seems to be happening within trading ranges that haven't been breached to the downside. The weekly and monthly charts are now looking more positive towards the upside and I may post some later. Bears may have had their honey for now.


  5. From Joe Duarte free newsletter.

     

    This Rally Has Some Staying Power For Now

     

    The stock market's rally continues to solidify, and new data suggests that hedge fund selling in the August to early October period may have been the key development which set up what may turn out to be an important buying opportunity.

     

    As we learned via Michael Lewis' expose' of the subprime mortgage crisis, it's not always what we know, but what we don't know that bites us. And hedge funds, which still operate in a murky world of leverage and credit default swaps, remain a key cog in the fortunes of all markets. The key to the whole dynamic may be the credit default swap, a sophisticated hybrid financial instrument that is half an insurance policy, and half a highly leveraged option. The buyer of a swap, basically rents the probability of something that may happen from the seller. In the case of stocks, the bet involves a rise or a fall of prices.

     

    Say, for example, that a hedge fund believes that the stock market is going to fall. It can buy a credit default swap that would pay a figure if the market falls a certain amount. If the bet is for a billion dollars, then the premium, or the rent, may be something like a few million dollars per year to keep open. If they are wrong on the bet, and they want to get out, they have to answer the margin call, or the seller's call for more money. It's when the bet goes wrong that the owner of the swap has to find money, either to keep the bet open, or to get out. That's when markets crash and burn, as hedge funds often sell liquid assets, such as stocks and bonds in order to raise money to pay off a bet, such as a credit default swap.

     

    Over the last few months, there have been plenty of reports about John Paulson's hedge funds taking huge losses. Mr. Paulson was a little known hedge fund manager until the subprime mortgage crisis hit. He had the presence of mind to buy large numbers of credit default swaps that bet against subprime mortgages. And the bet paid off handsomely. Mr. Paulson became an instant star in the hedge fund world. But, Mr. Paulson had enjoyed very little success, according to multiple reports, prior to his subprime mortgage crisis master strike, a fact that suggests that his success may have been a once in a lifetime hit.

     

    Now, Mr. Paulson is facing what Reuters is describing as a loss of "as much as a quarter of its assets" in "a "worst-case" scenario if all people who are eligible cash out by the end of the year." According to Reuters, one of Mr. Paulson's funds is down as much as 47% for the year while many of his funds "have lost big this year."

     

    The time line for the selling holds up. Reuters reports that Mr. Paulson's team had an investor phone call on Tuesday in which they notified clients of the current situation. But, there have been other warnings. According to Reuters: "in the days leading up to the investor call, some on Paulson's team had been telling brokers and others on Wall Street that at least 20 percent of the $30 billion in assets the fund manages could be redeemed. The deadline to get out of the biggest funds — the Advantage funds — is coming up on October 31."

     

    The key to this story is that at least one big hedge fund family has been in trouble this year. If one is in trouble, then several are likely to be in trouble. And that means a lot of margin calls as the bets go against them. And that usually means selling of liquid assets.

     

    What it also means is that as stocks sold off on October 3 and 4, some hedge fund(s) may have hit the panic button, setting up the rally that we are now, in our opinion, in the very early stages of.

     

    The Markets

     

    We like this market, a lot. The rally is displaying a good number of very positive characteristics. For one, no one believes in it. No matter how many resistance levels prices slice through, the negativity remains stout, and in some cases is rising. That's bullish. And for another, volume is only starting to pick up slowly, which means that people are still scared. At some point, though, just as they dumped stocks at the bottom, they will buy stocks in a hurry as the rally gets away from them.

     

    The S & P 500 (SPX) closed above its 50-day moving average for the second day in a row on Tuesday. And if this morning's expected rally holds up, and we get a good close, we could see a bunch of money coming into the markets in the last hour of trading.

     

    The market's breadth is also improving. The Nasdaq Advance Decline line (NAAD) is one good day, maybe today, away from breaking out of its lower low, lower high pattern. A breakthrough here would be very bullish. Nasdaq's A-D line is not distorted by large numbers of ETFs, bond funds, preferred stocks, and convertibles, as is the NYSE A-D line. That means that we get a better, clearer picture of the action in stocks from NAAD.

     

    Best of all, few are bullish. According to Mark Hulbert: "Contrarian analysis is just as bullish today as it was one week ago, despite the impressive rally since then. In fact, some sentiment indexes are painting an even more bullish picture today than then." How bearish are people? According to Hulbert: "the typical Nasdaq market timer is currently recommending that his clients allocate nearly half of their equity portfolios to going short." That's a lot of pent up buying power waiting to come into the market.

     

    Conclusion

     

    As we analyze the current rally, in a retrospective fashion, we can see how the panic bottom formed in October as hedge funds threw in the towel to meet margin calls. Now, we are watching a good deal of skepticism with the rally. All of this is very bullish.

     

    We like this market, and we think it could go higher. There is always the possibility that we are wrong. We're not perfect. But, if you follow the trend, you usually make money. And the trend is slowly but surely, turning up.

     

    http://www.joe-duarte.com/free/market_summary_weekday.asp

     


  6. Strange market today. Slovakia votes against funding the ESFS, its Government effectively falls as it was linked to a no confidence vote. In the US, the Republicans, not surprisingly, block Obama's jobs package, while the US Senate has a go at China voting through its Bill on the value of the Yuan. Markets would normally react badly to such moves, but so far are up. This either signifies a degree of strength in the current upward move or a calm before another move down. FTSE is around the 5400 resistance and needs a major push to get through it at this stage in the upward move.


  7. Yes, I liked the Briggs one...the other lady works with NT...

     

    I quite like his youtube channel, the weekly market analysis is a useful guide to what may happen in the week to come. He also posts some useful videos during the week via Twitter.

     

    Did notice on the Naked Trader website that he mentioned the technical analysis seminars. As NT doesn't consider himself to be a technical trader, it would be interesting to see what he contributes to the seminar.


  8. ADVFN market report.

     

    The Footsie finished at the highest level of the day, with just four stocks in the red, as gains were built on after the opening bell in New York, which saw stocks rise on the back of a better-than-expected unemployment claims report.

     

    It was a busy day on the macroeconomic front with policy rate decisions coming from home and abroad.

     

    At midday, the Bank of England surprised the market with a resumption of its quantitative easing programme, saying it will pump £75bn of new money into the economy. While a move was in the pipelines, most had anticipated the central bank to hold off for at least another month and thought that a lesser £50bn would be set aside. The Bank of England's QE initiative has lain dormant since 2009, after it spent £200bn buying up assets such as government bonds from banks in an effort to lubricate the banking system in the UK. The Bank’s key lending rate was left at the historic low of 0.5%.

     

    “The decision to take this step has been greeted positively by the street as an indication that public figures in Europe are taking the risk of a recession seriously and are prepared to take decisive measures to try and prevent events from spiralling out of control as they did three years ago. This has added to hopes that policy makers on the continent will follow suit in the near term and come up with a decisive plan to deal with the Greek debt and bank recapitalization problems,” according to market analyst Colin Cieszynski from CMC Markets Canada.

     

    While the European Central Bank also kept hold of its own interest rates, leaving them at 1.5%, it announced several new measures aimed at the provision of liquidity to the financial system, including a €40bn covered bond purchase programme, two 12-month refinancing operations and six three-month operations in place until next June with full allotment. On the whole, and at first glance, the decisions announced by the ECB seem to have been largely ‘in line’ with what was expected by the consensus, although it is not clear what consensus had been expecting as far as non-standard measures are concerned.

     

    Markets across Europe extended Wednesday's gains on hopes that the European Union is planning for a co-ordinated recapitalisation of the continent's banks. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has said that he is pressuring member states to take co-ordinated action to recapitalise banks in the region. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has spoken out, saying that “Germany is prepared to move to recapitalise”. Meanwhile, there were reports that European regulators are planning a new round of stress tests for banks in order to evaluate the impact of greater write-downs as a result of a potential default.

     

    Financial stocks were in demand with Prudential, Aviva, Standard Chartered and Barclays registering strong gains.

     

    However, it was the miners who dominated the markets today, helped higher by surging copper and silver prices, which rose 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively. Eurasian Natural Resource Corp, Antofagasta, Kazakhmys and Vedanta Resources led the advance. CMC’s Cieszynski added, “Stocks and commodities have continued to rise this morning suggesting increased recognition that recent bearishness and the pricing in of another 2008 style financial crisis and deep recession may have been overdone.”

     

    Xstrata was in demand after it said it has secured long-term energy supplies for its North-west Queensland operations in Australia after a two-year selection process.

     

    Engineering firm IMI was a notable performer, finishing over 11% higher after it confirmed that current trading has been in line with expectations.

     

    Eastern Europe-focused oil producer Exillon Energy rocketed nearly 23% after announcing that it has discovered oil at the south-eastern part of the East EWS I field in Russia.

     

    Ukraine-focused iron ore producer Ferrexpo jumped over 10% after it said pellet production in August was the second highest in the company's history at 0.9m tonnes.

     

    A big mover was AIM-listed consulting and business services group Mouchel after the firm revealed that after an accounting error and higher provisions for contract risks, profits would be well under expectations. Not helping matters either was the resignation of the chief executive. Shares plummeted by over a third.

     

    FTSE 100 - Risers

     

    Prudential (PRU) 590.00p +11.74%

    IMI (IMI) 759.00p +11.45%

    GKN (GKN) 182.40p +10.34%

    Antofagasta (ANTO) 1,042.00p +10.21%

    Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. (ENRC) 611.50p +9.69%

    Standard Chartered (STAN) 1,325.00p +8.83%

    Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 35.87p +8.68%

    Kazakhmys (KAZ) 847.50p +8.31%

    Xstrata (XTA) 885.70p +8.25%

    Essar Energy (ESSR) 269.10p +8.20%

     


  9. Bernanke promising more of everything is the US last night.

     

     

    Followed up by the BoE announcing £75billion of money printing supposedly for the economy. We know that most will end up with the banks and speculators who will no doubt use it to ramp up commodity prices. Already this morning the big FTSE commodity companies are going like gangbusters. More price inflation down the line.


  10. We're now at the critical decisive point.

    YoY is about to go negative without that expected bounce- so history tells us that the the market will either rally strongly or if it doesn't then further collapse is inevitable.

    http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2011/09/30/it-is-time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/

    Very big bounce on the FTSE today and it was within its trading range and support yesterday when it began. Much of this looks like automated trading to me, support is reached the computers buy, resistance, they sell. The bears may have to think and hope again, although the weekly and monthly charts still look negative and trending down. If the FTSE breaks that 5400 resistance barrier we may be in for a nice set up for the annual santa rally come December.


  11. Tesco produced its numbers this morning and as expected the market is concentrating on the UK side of its business which fell, but I would say not dramatically considering it has 30% share of the UK market. Overall, the figures were pretty impressive if you look at the bigger picture of its international growth. Market can't be bothered to look at that it would seem. For longer term, dividend seeking investors, they still look cheap to me.

     

    LONDON—Tesco PLC's same-store sales fell in the U.K. in the second quarter, but growth at the supermarket company's extensive international operations helped it boost its net profit in the first half by 16%.

     

    Net profit rose to £1.38 billion ($2.14 billion), from £1.18 billion a year earlier and above expectations of £1.31 billion. Total sales in the first half excluding the value-added tax increased to £31.81 billion, from £29.51 billion.

     

    Its U.K. trading profit rose 4.5% to £1.27 billion in the first half. U.K. sales rose 7.1% to £23.43 billion, but most of that growth came from rising inflation and fuel costs. Stripping out the value-added tax and fuel, sales on a same-store basis—the industry's preferred measure of growth—fell 0.5% in the first half.

     

    Chief Executive Philip Clarke said growth was excellent in Europe and Asia, and encouraging in the U.S. However, he said demand remained subdued in the U.K, particularly in non-food categories.

     

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203388804576612102975479910.html


  12. FTSE futures suggest the market opens up tomorrow, but you wonder for how long?

     

    Moody's downgrades Italy: the full statement

     

    Italy’s credit rating was cut by Moody’s for the first time in almost two decades on concern the government will struggle to reduce the region’s second-largest debt amid chronically weak growth. Here is the agency's full statement.

     

    Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Italy's government bond ratings to A2 with a negative outlook from Aa2, while affirming its short-term ratings at Prime-1. The rating action concludes the review for downgrade initiated by Moody's on June 17, 2011.

     

    The main drivers that prompted the rating downgrade are:

     

    (1) The material increase in long-term funding risks for euro area sovereigns with high levels of public debt, such as Italy, as a result of the sustained and non-cyclical erosion of confidence in the wholesale finance environment for euro sovereigns, due to the current sovereign debt crisis.

     

    (2) The increased downside risks to economic growth due to macroeconomic structural weaknesses and a weakening global outlook.

     

    (3) The implementation risks and time needed to achieve the government's fiscal consolidation targets to reverse the adverse trend observed in the public debt, due to economic and political uncertainties.

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8807468/Moodys-downgrades-Italy-the-full-statement.html

     

     


  13. Anyone else underwater today?

     

    I do wonder if now is the time to be brave. Im sure there are some great stocks trading at massively discounted prices. Or will the slide continue...

     

    I think you can be brave on the swings, unless you are prepared to sit on good companies for years. I expect a bounce soon from oversold conditions, but then I wouldn't be surprise if it falls again in a few weeks time once someone mentions Greece.

     

    Im keeping an evey on Aviva too, MML, Tesco.

     

    Noticed a fe of Naked Traders favourites were smashed today...OXIG, AZ Elec, GKP, PFC

     

    Tesco reports tomorrow and UK sales are expected to be down, but overseas sales rapidly improving. I've read they are expected to report a 7% increase in profits, not bad all considered. Trouble is, each time Tesco has reported recently the share price has gone up just before, only to be sold off once they announce, usually because the market only looks at their UK figures and seems to totally ignore what they are doing overseas. Guess what? Tesco was up today while everything else was falling! What's the betting the share price falls tomorrow?

     

    I'll be surprised if NT didn't sell a few or go for his usual FTSE short the SUK2 ETF to hedge, which can be held in an ISA.

     

    http://www.google.co.uk/finance?client=ob&q=LON:SUK2


  14.  

    Added a few Av this afternoon, went ex-div yesterday, but plan to keep for a good while yet. (Just a few mind).

     

    I do wonder about Aviva and what the story here might be. Currently stands at around 278p with an 8.8 div yield with no sign that it intends to reduce the dividend?

     

    A few weeks ago this story/rumor appeared, probably from a market looking to ramp the long side of the price a bit before talking it down again on the short side. Still, it could be attractive to a bid.

     

    AVIVA VULNERABLE TO ZURICH BID

     

    Wednesday September 7,2011

     

    SHARES in Aviva hit a 16-month low yesterday, prompting speculation that Swiss giant Zurich Financial Services could move to snap up its rival in a £12.5billion takeover deal.

     

    Insurer Aviva, which has also been tipped as a potential target for Germany’s Allianz, fell 5¼p to 301¾p on brisk trading as worries over the fallout from the eurozone’s debt crisis outweighed the high-yielding stock’s attraction for income investors.

     

    Gossips reckon Aviva’s lowly rating leaves it vulnerable to an approach from Zurich and suggested one could be made at 440p a share.

     

    http://www.express.co.uk/money/view/269674/Aviva-vulnerable-to-Zurich-bid

     


  15. More fat fingers.

     

    Pound plunge blamed on 'fat fingers'

     

    Computers aren't supposed to make mistakes. And they certainly aren't supposed to have fat fingers.

     

    But on Monday currency traders were gossiping about a fat-fingered algorithm that caused the pound to crash by almost a cent after a computer mistakenly pushed through a large sell order.

     

    Sterling collapsed from just under $1.5580 to just over $1.5480 in a matter of seconds at almost exactly the same moment that surprisingly strong manufacturing data were released at 9.30am on Monday. The pound immediately rebounded to $1.5550, suggesting somebody took a bath on the hasty transaction.

     

    "It was a miss-hit on cable and we hear an algo just stuck an offer at $1.5480 in the machine which should have been $1.5580," one trader said. Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, added: "The market legend is that it did spike down due to some sort of mis-trade. Usually when something like that happens, everyone blames an algorithm or a hedge fund."

     

    Somehow it seems, in the trading world, a fat finger can be judged to belong to an algorithm rather than the programmer who built the algorithm.

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/8804859/Pound-plunge-blamed-on-fat-fingers.html

     


  16. Looks like someone wants to get their hands on cheap stock, Qatari story strongly doing the rounds.

     

     

     

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e2737ee-edbc-11e0-a9a9-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1RGkcqpxQ

     

    Was reading yesterday that automated sell targets were now being hit, so the automated trading bot computers just take over. Looks that way this morning as well. Other than that what we are seeing is a good old conflict between markets that want things done yesterday and to their liking, and the political system, mainly Europe, going at its own pace because that is what democracy is supposedly all about.

     

    Be good if we could actually find out when these bot programmes kick in.

     

    Quant trading: How mathematicians rule the markets

     

    Trading floors were once the preserve of adrenalin-fuelled dealers aggressively executing the orders of brokers who relied on research, experience and gut instinct to decide where best to invest.

     

    Long ago computers made dealers redundant, yet brokers and their ilk have remained the masters of the investment universe, free to buy and sell wherever they see fit.

     

    But the last bastion of the old order is now under threat.

     

    Investment decisions are no longer being made by financiers, but increasingly by PhD mathematicians and the immensely complex computer programs they devise.

     

    ========================

     

    These so-called quantitative trading programs underpin all quickfire trades - known as high-frequency trading (HFT) - in which stocks can be held for just a matter of seconds.

     

    They are also used in more traditional trading, where the holding period can be days, weeks or months.

     

    Some are fully automated, but most require human oversight to ensure nothing goes too drastically wrong.

     

    Scott Patterson, a Wall Street Journal reporter and author of The Quants, uses the analogy of a plane on autopilot, which can fly itself but where a specially-trained pilot can step in at any moment.

     

    On 6 May 2010, the Dow Jones tanked 700 points then recovered within minutes. The culprit? A cascade of sales by quant trading programs.

     

    Had the losses not been recovered when the programs were overridden, the Dow would have suffered one of its biggest one-day falls in history.

     

    These programs are immensely powerful, constantly monitoring market movements, trading patterns and news flows and are capable of changing strategies within fractions of a second.

     

    =====================

     

    Their proliferation would certainly suggest so. One commentator says two of the biggest HFT firms, Tradebot and Getco, alone account for about 15%-20% of all equity trading in the US.

     

    As they are private companies, it is hard to know precisely how far their influence extends.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14631547


  17. Very few if any problems accessing the site after 1pm UK time. Have not noticed any slowdown at all after this time. Prior to 1pm UK time it is unacceptably slow for several hours and at times an unable to connect to server message appears. Sometimes the site is down during this period. In my experience at no stage has it been down the whole time prior to 1pm UK time, but no one should have to wait several minutes for the page to change either. The host is providing an appalling service, the answer is to either get them to sort it out and provide the service you are paying for or move the site.


  18. Pretty much what I thought when I listened. Then I heard that the BBC had brought on to commentate on the EU situation and he didnt give much factual commentry other than relishing the crash aspect. Also he has been waiting for this for years..... gotta wonder what he was doing in 2008 :lol:

     

    Answer is here.

     

    Markets often move much faster downwards than they do upwards.

     

    So let’s be honest folks. Who really wants to take a staircase?

     

    What most people tend to be unaware of is that you can make money as the stock prices are falling. If you can apply the right strategies to make money in a downward market (more on that in upcoming posts), then heck, I am going to get inside that elevator and press the button to take me to the ground floor!

     

    Don’t get me wrong. I am not into “get rich quick”. Far from it. I have always believed that the fastest way to go broke is to try to get rich quick. There are a lot of risks involved in trading no matter which direction you want to bet, long or short.

     

    Conclusion

     

    One of my biggest regrets is that I did not make as much money as I should have done in the crash of 2008. I did not do too badly though. I managed to capture the most of that year’s trends. But I got sucked into the “fear” and the “waiting for the news” B.S. that everybody else was getting sucked into.

     

    I made a promise to myself: never again! That year taught me to stick to my trading plan and just trade the nice trends like a good trader.

     

    That is exactly what I am waiting for this year and next year as well. If a global recession is heading our way, then that is an opportunity. It is an opportunity not just for me but for everybody, including you, dear reader.

     

    Don’t get fooled by the fear of everyone else. Always remember the words of Warren Buffet: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful”.

     

    http://www.leadingtrader.com/

     


  19.  

    As for the "trader", I don't think it matters if he was real or not. Having met some "real" ones, I thought he summed some them up quite well.

     

    It seems that he is a private trader who for some reason the BBC latched on to. He clearly doesn't work in the city, but he does have that somewhat flash stereotypical trader look that many might recognize from Hollywood. He seems more of a marketing type with something to sell. Having said that, many of his comments rang true, the Goldman Sachs ruling the world one probably being the best. The BBC have had another go at explaining it all.

     

    Maverick trader: Was what he said actually right?

     

    Financial trader Alessio Rastani raised eyebrows after making extraordinarily candid remarks about his feelings on the financial crisis. But are his views commonly held?

     

    Rastani, who describes himself as "an experienced stock market and forex trader and professional speaker" told viewers he had been looking forward to a recession in order to profit from it.

     

    "I dream of another moment like this," said Rastani, adding: "Anybody can actually make money. It's an opportunity."

     

    More revelations included the apparently widespread conviction in the City that the euro was doomed, that any rescue plan by European governments was "toast" and that it was financial institutions like Goldman Sachs - rather than elected governments - who "ruled the world".

     

    And he issued a grim warning of a coming financial meltdown that would strip millions of their savings.

     

    But how much of this should we take seriously?

     

    Geraint Anderson, a former City analyst, "Cityboy" columnist, and author of Just Business, gives his take, as does Julia Finch, business editor of the Guardian and Observer newspapers.

     

    ============================

     

    Rastani said: "Governments don't rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world"

     

    Rastani underlined the power of international financial institutions to control global markets, and painted a picture of nation-states powerless to affect the flow of capital across their borders.

     

    Anderson says: "This is very simplistic. It's not just Goldman Sachs who affects the market. Ben Bernanke [chairman of the US Federal Reserve] affects the markets when he sets US interest rates. The Chinese economy affects the market, as does global instability

     

    "However, there is the classic phrase 'you cannot buck the market' and it is true to say that governments can be shown to be relatively powerless if they try and take on the financial institutions - as the UK did in 1992 with its failed attempt to stay in the European Exchange Mechanism.

     

    "I would say there are lots of pieces of the puzzle that make up the global market. Some are bigger than others, but they all have a role."

     

    But many commentators have noted the power of some of the big finance houses.

     

    "Goldman Sachs has probably been allowed to have too much influence in the past, with many of its former top bankers once in the highest echelons of the US Treasury and administration," says Finch.

     

    "But there's too much conspiracy theory about Goldman Sachs".

     

    This is his latest market video.

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG4WtnuhX5c&feature=player_embedded#!


  20. Just who is Alessio Rastani? Hoax or for real?

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7v9L-t3gxzQ

     

    Was the BBC's trader from hell one big hoax? Claims greedy dealer praying for a recession in which to get rich was a FAKE

     

    The 'trader' at the centre of a controversial interview, in which he claimed the City just 'loves' a economic disaster, was today accused of being a hoaxer.

     

    Twitter users took to the social networking site to 'out' the City trader as an imposter and claimed he was a member of a group of hoaxers, hours after an astonishing interview on the BBC.

     

    Interviewers were left open-mouthed as Alessio Rastani admitted that traders 'don't really care that much' about the prospect of an economic collapse.

     

    He astonished BBC viewers yesterday by describing his hopes of profiting from a recession, adding: 'The governments don't rule the world - Goldman Sachs rules the world.'

     

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2042291/Alessio-Rastani-Claims-greedy-dealer-praying-recession-FAKE.html

     

    BBC financial expert Alessio Rastani: 'I'm an attention seeker not a trader'

     

    He's become the face of the global debt crisis and an internet sensation. The self-styled City trader who stripped away the jargon and bluster of the financial world and summed up our woes in just three minutes. "I go to bed every night dreaming of another recession," Alessio Rastani explained in a BBC interview. "It's an opportunity."

     

    ==================

     

    How a man who has never been authorised by the Financial Services Authority and has no discernible history working for a City institution ended up being interviewed by the BBC remains a mystery.

     

    The incongruity led to some commentators speculating Mr Rastani was a professional hoaxer. The BBC denied the allegation: "We've carried out detailed investigations and can't find any evidence to suggest that the interview with Alessio Rastani was a hoax."

     

    However, the BBC declined to comment on what checks, if any, it had done prior to the interview.

     

    Mr Rastani was a little more forthcoming.

     

    "They approached me," he told The Telegraph. "I'm an attention seeker. That is the main reason I speak. That is the reason I agreed to go on the BBC. Trading is a like a hobby. It is not a business. I am a talker. I talk a lot. I love the whole idea of public speaking."

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8792829/BBC-financial-expert-Alessio-Rastani-Im-an-attention-seeker-not-a-trader.html

     

    Trader was not a hoaxer, says BBC

     

    A financial trader who appeared on the BBC was not a hoaxer, the broadcaster has said after doubt was cast on his credentials.

     

    It issued a statement after Twitter users suggested that Alessio Rastani was not a trader.

     

    "We've carried out detailed investigations and can't find any evidence to suggest that the interview... was a hoax," the BBC said.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15078419

     

    I am an experienced stock market and forex trader and professional speaker. I have had the privilege of learning from some of the world’s greatest traders.

     

    I have a strong foundation in US and UK stocks, using precision timing and tools for entering and exiting the markets.

     

    My belief is that anyone who wants to improve their income and achieve success in life, cannot afford to ignore learning how to trade.

     

    The problem is that most people are under the illusion that they can do it themselves – often without any proper knowledge of how the markets work and taking measures to minimise the risks involved.

     

    http://www.leadingtrader.com/about/

     

    So, who are the Yes Men?

     

    Identity Correction

     

    Impersonating big-time criminals in order to publicly humiliate them. Our targets are leaders and big corporations who put profits ahead of everything else.

     

    http://theyesmen.org/

     

    If you look at his blog, his Twitter account, and his interview with Forbes, not to mention his notorious BBC interview, it’s pretty clear that Alessio Rastani is, at least in part, who he says he is. The Yes Men do set up elaborate hoaxes, but they do so with respect to large institutions: they wouldn’t put this much effort into inventing “Alessio Rastani” out of whole cloth. Mostly because there are lots of genuine traders like Alessio Rastani floating around the internet already. They trade their own money, they sometimes win and they sometimes lose, and they aspire to getting famous on the internet and selling their own trading advice.

     

    That said, however, the resemblance to “Jude Finisterra” from the Yes Men is startling. Which raises the question: is it possible that Rastani is both a trader and a member of the Yes Men? And the answer there, I think, is absolutely yes.

     

    Independent traders are, well, independent — and you don’t need to spend very much time hanging around the comments section (or even many of the posts) at Zero Hedge to discern a strong nihilistic and even anti-capitalist strain to much of the thinking in that community. Independent traders are often men in their 20s and 30s who inherited a substantial sum of money and who for whatever reason don’t have a more attractive opportunity in the regular workforce. They work from home, they tend to have a strong contrarian streak, and they have a lot of time on their hands.

     

    http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/09/27/is-alessio-rastani-a-yes-man/

     

    Jude Finisterra hoax.

     

    Bhopal Disaster - BBC - The Yes Men

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiWlvBro9eI


  21. Oh bugger.

     

    I bought Lloyds last week at 33.09p as a swing trade. Up to 37p today; which was my target...but I got greedy and wondered whether in a year or tw0 it could be 50 or 60...now regretting my decision...

    Don't quite follow. You didn't sell and take the profit or did you? It could be worth 50 or 60 in a year or so, but if your decision to buy was based on a short term swing trade then to hold it for the long term from here would be a risky decision. It can easily go down a lot again. There will be plenty of ups and downs in the Lloyds share price over the next two years to get back in. A decision to sell on the basis of a swing trade, having bought at 33.9 was probably correct because it is now well into overbought territory. You've made around 10% very quickly, for a swing trade that is a result.

     

    Im learing a lot about my mentality through these first steps at investing.

     

    Trading is 90% psychology IMHO. Trading systems are 10 a penny and many work, while an individual's psychology often doesn't. If you cannot overcome any psychological hangups about trading that you may have than it probably isn't for you. I'm still working on it and this is one area that you will never master overnight.

     

    I learnt some very hard lessons courtesy of Exillon Energy.

     

    It had a good run recently and then sold off in line with the market falls and then some. I read one market report when it fell 20% in a day that no one could see any reason for it. I would agree, it could easily come back just as fast, but these oil growth companies can be every bit as volatile as small gold and silver miners.

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