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Everything posted by No6

  1. California Uber Alles - States in Trouble Will California go Beyond Financial Crash (BFC)? ================================ Late 2016 Update: CCA / MFS California Municipal Fund (NYSE MKT) ... update / Last: $11.36 MYC / BlackRock MuniYield California Fund Inc. (NYSE) ... update / Last: $15.38 / 2 / TRACK the Fears of CA Default - with this chart CCA (Calif. Fund) versus TLT (Bonds) and IYR (Real Estate) ... update In 2008, there were two moves to the 'safe haven' of Bonds where we saw TLT rise, as CCA and IYR fell. Followed by: + A narrowing of the Gap. But some of the gap never filled, as if there was a permanent impairment of risk in those instruments. Since late 2009,all three prices have tended to move in the same pattern. And the recent drop in CCA was accompanied by a drop in TLT. If /when CCA is falling on its own, it will be a sign that fears of a California default are spreading ===================================== /more Google News : California in Crisis QUOTE Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. states and municipalities from New York to California are facing deteriorating finances as investors shun their bonds in a credit market averse to all but the safest debt and a slowing economy erodes revenue. New York Governor David Paterson called for a special legislative session to confront a budget deficit that has ballooned to $1.2 billion and Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick ordered spending cuts as states and cities from Louisiana to Illinois canceled debt sales. Tax-exempt borrowers this week sold less than 15 percent of a typical week's sales, data compiled by Bloomberg show, and their costs to borrow long term soared to the highest in eight years. Congress passed a $700 billion financial-market rescue plan today designed to unlock credit markets, urged on by California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's warning that his and other states may need emergency loans without it. States and cities have postponed more than $12 billion in note and bond deals since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared bankruptcy on Sept. 15, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. California may run out of cash at the end of the month if the state can't sell billions in short-term debt, Treasurer Bill Lockyer, a Democrat, said Oct. 1. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=afZRKK9qsBHI QUOTE California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger told the Bush administration yesterday that his state may need an emergency loan of as much as $7 billion from the federal government within weeks if it can't tap the credit market, the Los Angeles Times reported. The warning comes after state Treasurer Bill Lockyer earlier this week said California may run out of cash at month- end if it is unable to sell billions in short-term debt. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=ag2wzlV3psYs
  2. THE NAKED TRADER (Robbie Burns) Naked Trader can be followed at his website below. http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html From the site. New Brit Palm Oil (NBPO) looks interesting although it has flown since IPO. Could fall back some way as credit crunch fears hit the market. Lets see if the share price holds up tomorrow if London takes a tumble first thing.
  3. If you like a balanced view of the markets this thread might be for you. If you are an out and out bear, doom and gloomer, market hater, trader hater or just into gold or silver, then you probably won't find much of interest here. Hopefully some of the regulars and newcomers that like the UK market and FTSE shares will join me here.
  4. For those interested in the UK market, dividend payers, etc, you might find my blog of interest. http://sevenpillarstrading.blogspot.co.uk/'>http://sevenpillarstrading.blogspot.co.uk/ Sample.
  5. A Simple - but important question : is the social mood changing? If so, for a great reflation to work how will the Government and Central Banks get the people to go along with it in the face of a social mood change? It's one thing to get the helicopters and B52's in the air, it's another to force people to spend. I sense a mood change and that is why Government and Central Banks are working overtime to get it back to where it was. Prechter's view. The social mood which seems to be happening today is best described in this paragraph. And the market mood has yet to change despite many countries throwing billions of dollars at the problem. And what happened to Japan in the 90's? This sums it up nicely. I also don't see the great de-coupling happening in metals/energy and commodities that the likes of Puplava, Morgan, King, etc on Financial Sense talk about. Gold being the obvious exception, as long as it is not the gold miners. Anyone who bought into miners 6 months ago are probably now sitting on big losses. It's ok for Jim Puplava to talk about 30-40% corrections being the norm and you should go to the beach and not think about it, but this latest fall back has been brutal, the jury is still out on whether this is something more than just a correction. Thus far, money has not gone into these sectors as a safe haven, time will tell if it does. And what's the price of oil today? It's a long way back to $160, not that it got there. In fact, the price of oil is now a lot closer to Art Laffer's $35 prediction than Zepatta George's $160. So, there is an awful lot of asset deflation about right now and I feel that there is a good chance that the attempt to reflate things will fail as the social mood is changing. What do you think the people will do? Everyone I talk to seems to be shutting up shop and spending less, it seems to me that the powers that be have got one hell of a job on their hands to change this mood.
  6. Gets many a mention on FSN. LON:YAU 762.00 http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON:YAU The Directors seem to have cashed in recently. If gold is going higher, why are they cashing in now? Do you take any notice of directors selling? I would rather see them buy. Digital Look Traded Action Notifier Price Amount Value 24-Jan-08 Sell Carl Renzoni 802.24p 12,000 £96,268.66 24-Jan-08 Sell Victor H Bradley 801.74p 250,000 £2,004,336.43 24-Jan-08 Exercise of option Victor H Bradley 486.59p 250,000 £1,216,468.32 24-Jan-08 Sell Dino Titaro 801.74p 125,000 £1,002,168.21 24-Jan-08 Exercise of option Dino Titaro 486.59p 125,000 £608,234.16 24-Jan-08 Sell Nigel Lees 801.74p 165,000 £1,322,862.04 24-Jan-08 Exercise of option Nigel Lees 486.59p 165,000 £802,869.09 24-Jan-08 Sell Patrick J Mars 801.74p 125,000 £1,002,168.21 24-Jan-08 Exercise of option Patrick J Mars 486.59p 125,000 £608,234.16 24-Jan-08 Sell Charles Main 801.74p 133,000 £1,066,306.98 24-Jan-08 Exercise of option Charles Main 486.59p 133,000 £647,161.14 24-Jan-08 Sell Antenor F Silva Jr 801.74p 275,000 £2,204,770.07 24-Jan-08 Exercise of option Antenor F Silva Jr 186.06p 275,000 £511,673.07 24-Jan-08 Sell Peter Marrone 801.74p 2,000,000 £16,034,691.43 24-Jan-08 Exercise of option Peter Marrone 486.59p 1,500,000 £7,298,809.90 And they did this before. 25.05.2006 Yamana Gold's management are not waiting to see whether the recent wobble in the gold price is a blip or the beginning of a more sustained decline. The Canadian-based, Brazilian-focused gold miner has seen most of its key directors cash in hefty share options. President and chief exective Peter Marrone is leading the way with the sale of 750,000 options for a gross total of $10.2m. The options were exercisable at $1.67 and sold at $13.55. Other big sellers include finance director Charles Main and another director, Stan Bharti. Yamana, which has 6 operating mines and one under construction, is aiming for 1m ounces per year of gold production by 2008. http://www.moneyweek.com/file/13054/yamana...rd-cash-in.html Top Director Sells Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Charles Main Amount sold: 227,000 @ 726.44p Value: £1,649,018 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Peter Marrone Amount sold: 750,000 @ 726.44p Value: £5,448,300 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Stan Bharti Amount sold: 500,000 @ 726.44p Value: £3,632,200 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Antenor F Silva Jr. Amount sold: 300,000 @ 726.44p Value: £2,179,320 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Bruce Humphrey Amount sold: 252,000 @ 726.44p Value: £1,830,629 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Greg McKnight Amount sold: 250,000 @ 726.44p Value: £1,816,100 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Patrick J Mars Amount sold: 200,000 @ 726.44p Value: £1,452,880 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Juvenal Mesquita Amount sold: 150,000 @ 726.44p Value: £1,089,660 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Nigel Lees Amount sold: 90,000 @ 726.44p Value: £653,796 Yamana Gold Inc (YAU) Director name: Mr Dino Titaro Amount sold: 90,000 @ 726.44p Value: £653,796
  7. Not on holiday, but I seem to be coming here less and less these days. My own interests are mainly UK market based and there isn't much discussion around here for that, so I have less reason to post as it is easy to feel that you are talking to yourself! Your call above was a pretty good one considering yet another Greece spanner in the works.
  8. Hefty rise in UK price inflation today. BoE on alert to not do anything.
  9. Markets beginning to look quite strong again despite the type of negative news that a month or so ago would have sent them down. This for me is a strength, a sign that baring something major actually happening, a default, the markets have priced in a level of doom and gloom that they do not want to go below. As I've mentioned before, when it suits them to use the news to sell off, profit taking, that is what they will do, but this still seems to be happening within trading ranges that haven't been breached to the downside. The weekly and monthly charts are now looking more positive towards the upside and I may post some later. Bears may have had their honey for now.
  10. From Joe Duarte free newsletter.
  11. Strange market today. Slovakia votes against funding the ESFS, its Government effectively falls as it was linked to a no confidence vote. In the US, the Republicans, not surprisingly, block Obama's jobs package, while the US Senate has a go at China voting through its Bill on the value of the Yuan. Markets would normally react badly to such moves, but so far are up. This either signifies a degree of strength in the current upward move or a calm before another move down. FTSE is around the 5400 resistance and needs a major push to get through it at this stage in the upward move.
  12. I quite like his youtube channel, the weekly market analysis is a useful guide to what may happen in the week to come. He also posts some useful videos during the week via Twitter. Did notice on the Naked Trader website that he mentioned the technical analysis seminars. As NT doesn't consider himself to be a technical trader, it would be interesting to see what he contributes to the seminar.
  13. And some say that trading is scary. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWfph3iNC-k&feature=youtu.be
  14. Another good video here in the series of trader videos. Talks a little more about the mind in trading. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yGeF-yL5iU&feature=relmfu
  15. I've posted some of this guy's youtube videos before as they are quite helpful. Real Life Trader series (this is from a spread betting company CMC, so is a little self promoting, but worth a look). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXIqRUmR9qE&feature=player_profilepage http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmZX9ktxMEY&feature=relmfu
  16. Followed up by the BoE announcing £75billion of money printing supposedly for the economy. We know that most will end up with the banks and speculators who will no doubt use it to ramp up commodity prices. Already this morning the big FTSE commodity companies are going like gangbusters. More price inflation down the line.
  17. Very big bounce on the FTSE today and it was within its trading range and support yesterday when it began. Much of this looks like automated trading to me, support is reached the computers buy, resistance, they sell. The bears may have to think and hope again, although the weekly and monthly charts still look negative and trending down. If the FTSE breaks that 5400 resistance barrier we may be in for a nice set up for the annual santa rally come December.
  18. Tesco produced its numbers this morning and as expected the market is concentrating on the UK side of its business which fell, but I would say not dramatically considering it has 30% share of the UK market. Overall, the figures were pretty impressive if you look at the bigger picture of its international growth. Market can't be bothered to look at that it would seem. For longer term, dividend seeking investors, they still look cheap to me.
  19. FTSE futures suggest the market opens up tomorrow, but you wonder for how long?
  20. I think you can be brave on the swings, unless you are prepared to sit on good companies for years. I expect a bounce soon from oversold conditions, but then I wouldn't be surprise if it falls again in a few weeks time once someone mentions Greece. Tesco reports tomorrow and UK sales are expected to be down, but overseas sales rapidly improving. I've read they are expected to report a 7% increase in profits, not bad all considered. Trouble is, each time Tesco has reported recently the share price has gone up just before, only to be sold off once they announce, usually because the market only looks at their UK figures and seems to totally ignore what they are doing overseas. Guess what? Tesco was up today while everything else was falling! What's the betting the share price falls tomorrow? I'll be surprised if NT didn't sell a few or go for his usual FTSE short the SUK2 ETF to hedge, which can be held in an ISA. http://www.google.co.uk/finance?client=ob&q=LON:SUK2
  21. I do wonder about Aviva and what the story here might be. Currently stands at around 278p with an 8.8 div yield with no sign that it intends to reduce the dividend? A few weeks ago this story/rumor appeared, probably from a market looking to ramp the long side of the price a bit before talking it down again on the short side. Still, it could be attractive to a bid.
  22. Was reading yesterday that automated sell targets were now being hit, so the automated trading bot computers just take over. Looks that way this morning as well. Other than that what we are seeing is a good old conflict between markets that want things done yesterday and to their liking, and the political system, mainly Europe, going at its own pace because that is what democracy is supposedly all about. Be good if we could actually find out when these bot programmes kick in.