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Everything posted by No6

  1. No6

    Is it time to buy a UK property

    Let's put it this way. I don't see this happening again anytime soon. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iw9zbTsKNAA And this is what people, apparently, wanted. Notice what she says about home ownership. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpdbEK3E4U8&feature=related
  2. No6

    Is it time to buy a UK property

    Below from my posts from the UK House Prices - The Long, Long Wait Is HPI the problem- Or the attitude towards property? thread as to why wage inflation is unlikely to occur from the pressure of strike action. This leaves the generosity of the system, which I don't see happening. The powers that be have never inflated wages in the UK without the pressure of mass indefinate strike action placed upon them (in bad times that is. Workers have done ok when times have been deemed to be good, or when there are skills shortages). I fail to see why they would now do it out of the generosity of their hearts because of some supposedly inflationary plan. Comparison with the 1970's is totally false and leads up a blind alley. Put simply, workers today have no power compared to the 70's. You have had no pay rise for 3 years, that's the reality of what happens to ordinary people in austerity times when the power balance has been changed in favour of the employer and Government. Workers today have no power short of a revolution movement, and if that happened they wouldn't be fighting to retain capitalism and a free market that's for sure.
  3. Greece vote, markets bounce, can it keep it up?
  4. I suppose the point about inflation that I was making is that I expect most workers will probably find their pay increase lagging behind price inflation for some time to come, regardless of what that price inflation level might be. I'm not convinced that workers will consistantly get inflation level rises or above, as UK politicians have been reluctant to repeat what they see as the wage-led type inflation that supposedly went on in the 70's (although it never really was as simple as that, wage-led price inflation or price-led wage inflation which comes first? Does it matter if you are printing or borrowing too much money in the first place). Obviously some will still get decent pay increases, but the majority may well lag with the occasional good year until things turn around, assuming it does. Such a situation could probably go on for a long time. A little bit like waiting for a property market crash! (I knew you were being tongue in cheek re the other point, but felt the need to cover bases as I would not wish to offend any women readers, "slutwalkers" or otherwise.)
  5. Just to answer a few points; I think things are only likely to change quickly if you get indefinate strikes. The tendency in recent years by public sector unions are for one off "day of action" type strikes. Seriously, they don't work, a waste of time. The unions cannot win the propaganda battle when they do this as the media and politicians immediately go into devide and rule mode. Public sector v private taxpayer. The unions cannot win that one. Even the so-called socialist New NuLabour leader Eddie Milliband doesn't support the strikes! Didn't take long for him to realise where his middle class voters are. Absolutely! After all, it was Mrs Thatcher that destroyed union power in the 80's.
  6. We could separate the question into two parts. First, the likely action by unionised workers and second, what action if any can non-unionised workers take? Current union membership levels in the UK are on the decline, they stand at 26.6% right now, much of it and the most powerful is arguably in the public sector, but I believe their likely action is limited by many of the points I have raised above. If and when they start to talk about indefinate strikes I will think again, but for the moment the public sector strikes are little more than a protest, but they are the type of strikes that the anti-union media will jump on thus making it difficult for the strikers to get any sympathy. As to how much people will take I think probably quite a lot! Inflation would probably need to hit 15-20%, but even then they may end up being given 5-8% pay deals and be quite happy to settle. As for the private, non-unionised sector there will probably be hardly any strikes at all as there is little collective spirit amongst workers anymore and anyway they probably lose their job if deemed in breech of contract. Capitalism always tends to provide enough unemployed to fill the breech and private sector employers and politicians know this. In the 70's, no Government would ever have called for volunteers to go into schools to fill in for the striking teachers. As for women not being militent in union matters I was tending to look at it from a historical perspective, that men have tended to be the ones doing the fighting on the front line, especially during the union glory years of the 60's/70's. Not saying women are not capable of fighting for things as clearly they are, but in terms of union militancy it tends to be a male dominated world still, although women i.e. as in the miners strike in the 80's were always there in supportive roles.
  7. I didn't say that strikes don't happen anymore, but you are mistaken if you think that what is going to happen this week shows any rise in militancy on the part of workers or that it is in any way comparable with what has happened in the past. A few facts to consider; - Public sector strikes today tend to be more of a protest one day affair, whereas in the past, especially in the 70's it would have been more often than not indefinate strikes. These hardly ever happen these days. It's the indefinate strikes that always hurt employers, not one off protests where the workers return the next day and have to catch up on the work they didn't do the day before. - They are not striking about pay. It is unlikely they would strike any length of time over pay. There is little or no evidence for it. - Most private sector workers are non-union. Many will probably have signed contracts of employment that forbid them to join a union or engage in strikes. - In the 70's, those that went on strike were often allowed to claim welfare benefits while on strike. These were all removed in the 80's. Go on strike today and you survive as long as your savings, if you've got any, hold out. - The collectivist spirit required for the type of strike action that often happened in the 70's no longer exists. There is certainly no politicised collectivist union spirit anymore. How do non-unionised private sector workers get such a spirit? - Public sector is mostly made up of women these days. They don't really have a history of front line militancy, not to the same degree as men anyway. I see little or no chance of indefinate mass strikes, general strikes, etc, etc any time soon and I see no chance of Government or private employers simply taking pity on workers and giving them above inflation pay increases.
  8. Are you still living in the 1970's? Most of the current strikes, certainly the public sector ones, are about conditions not pay. The unions no longer have the power they once did in the 70's to get workers out on strike over pay and the vast majority of workers, especially in the private sector in the UK are now non-union and so striking is probably not an option any way. They have no power to force up wages in line with inflation, most are probably happy just to be keeping their job. Legislation and the decline of union power has seen to that. Do you honestly think that the generosity of employers, public or private, is going to suddenly start giving everyone above inflation pay rises, just because there is supposedly some big gameplan somewhere? That would be a first and goes against everything that has been done so far to keep workers in line.
  9. Greece vote today, markets rebounding in anticipation of a yes vote. Will the French get German support for Sarkozy's plan? As usual with the inflationary money system, it hopes that time works its magic.
  10. FTSE on the turn? Could be. Greece vote could seal it one way or the other.
  11. While I agree with you on the stubborn nature of sellers, largely brought about by the expectation of ever increasing property prices, the "can't go wrong with property" mentality, I do feel that for owners it really is different this time, but in a bad way. Sitting tight worked in the past because a reflation of the financial system always seemed to work out without too much in the way of extremes, time seemed to work its magic and voila, it was off to the races again. This time however, it really is different, but mainly for the ordinary folk who always disproportionately carry the burden for the mistakes made by the elites. The Government and central bank are trying and succeeding in reflating like mad, but the masses are being told, it's austerity for you. Increased taxes, pensions, education costs, low or no wage increases, job losses, etc, nothing to be happy about there and no banker bonuses for you ordinary types. For the housing market, top that all off with a mortgage market no longer as generous, the end of self-cert, more regulation so you can't get away with some of the things driving prices up prior to 2008 and where does that leave us? Just about where we are, lowest sales levels for decades and sellers holding out because the housing industry is still selling dreams to them as if it is 2005. Ultimately, something has to give.
  12. Greece seems to have one new, very big friend.
  13. Markets looking to turn? This is the weekly chart looking oversold with the potential for turnaround. With the Greece vote on austerity later this week, markets are in a waiting period. Vote for and they could easily turnaround quickly from here, against and a summer of falls may be ahead. This chart looks like it expects a yes vote. DOW FTSE100
  14. CGI. Like this one. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoYbevFvWg8 And this one..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sI7vFv9REI&NR=1
  15. Not relating to stock markets no. Do you remember a while back the Zimbabwe thread that I set up? There was some mention in that of the Zim stock market. Zimbabwe's inflation tops 6.5 Quindecillion Novemdecillion %(thread started at 1000%) When paper money becomes worthless http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=335&st=60 It's almost like Zimbabwe has been forgotton, but here is the latest news that I could find. Remarkable, their inflation rate is now less then the UK. ZIMBABWE INFLATION Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate eased to 2.5 percent year-on-year in May from 2.7 percent in April, the Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency said on Thursday. [iD:nLDE75F145] http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/17/africa-factors-idUSLDE75G02M20110617
  16. This may be more to do with the fact that the initial shock is one of pessimism and therefore markets have a tendency to fall on such news. Once a realisation that inflation, especially hyper-inflation, is baked in then markets respond as they are seen as a store of value and one of the few games in town where you can invest money and keep up, or at least attempt to. Zimbabwe had many years of this recently.
  17. I think what is interesting is how politicians have used the financial crisis to forward their own agenda on issues that have been magnified by the events of the last 3-4 years, but in themselves are a by-product of bigger issues not being discussed. So, the problems in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, etc have been used, especially by the UK press, as a chance to have a go at the EU as if that is the problem. Every day there are will the Euro survive news stories? Will the EU project survive, etc? The average British Sun or Daily Mail/Express reader laps this up without thinking that things would be just as bad or worse without the EU. For instance, the banking financial crisis would still have happened and countries would have defaulted, probably very quickly, a domino effect going on that would have sent economic shock waves around the world. The British banking system would have totally collapsed given their participation in the partying of the previous 10-20 years or so. Economically and financially, Britain would have gone under. Bailouts are not a great answer, but in our credit debt inflationary money system, the alternative is chaos. It's the system that needs changing, but I'm not sure how you can do it in an orderly way in an increasingly interconnected and interdependant financial and economic world. The politicians still love to play the nationalistic card, with a small n, because it is very popular with voters while ignoring the fact that our lifestyles are dependant on what happens across the whole financial and economic world. This is why none of them can be trusted.
  18. Is this the reason, despite all the talk of the likes of Boris Johnson, why the UK will not desert Greece.
  19. Hmmm...Now here's a surprise, don't think so.
  20. Looks like the mood is turning. Positive vote from Greece tonight and confirmation in a couple of weeks could put the markets back on track. The Dow, S&P look like they may have turned already and FTSE was following today.
  21. Sounds a winner. Would you happily call it a home? Would the rest of your family happily call it a home? Can you afford it? How often does something like this come up in Edinburgh? Would you be happy there for the next 20 years? If these type of questions are ticking all the yes boxes then to continue to hold out and hope for another 10% or 20% lower, which may never happen, when you can have the life you want now doesn't make sense. Not everything should be seen as an investment. There is your family's happiness to think about. And let's face it, it's not like you are going to do a dodgy self-cert mortgage is it?
  22. Something that has been mentioned here before, testosterone trading.