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Everything posted by No6

  1. Don't know of anyone who does a similar website. Looks like he is venturing elsewhere next year, so it might be the end. Mind you, the site is useful in getting interest for his seminars unless he plans to drop them as well. He doesn't really need the money by the look of it.
  2. Some interesting comments from Robbie Burns in his latest Naked Trader blog. Tempted to agree with all of them.
  3. There are some interesting FTSE100 companies under the cosh right now which could be cheap for those looking 3-5 years down the road. Of course, everything could get cheaper still, blood on the streets buying time surely? If BP were to go below 300p that would put it on a price reached at worse during the oil spill, what problems are BP related right now other than general market marking down? The dividend should be back up and it does look cheap on fundamentals, but buyers might want to wait for the weekly chart to go positive.
  4. Perhaps she could help you once she sees how markets move? Quite a lot of evidence to suggest that women make better traders, although the City is still clearly an alpha male, sexist environment. A woman was the best trader in this series (it should also be said that the worst, most emotional one was also female). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68cciZYNqn0 I don't think there should be any doubts that he is legit. His website with trades has been running for years, although it would be dangerous to follow his selections regardless, because he often gets in early, especially with smaller companies, and the price has often moved up by the time he publishes. You can also never be sure when he gets out. He also states that not all his trades are recorded on the site. Reading his blog he has stated recently that he might not continue with it in the future and his updates are often once or twice a month now, whereas in the past it was 3 times a week. He also does regular seminars which are always fully booked although it will cost you around £400, so if he wasn't legit I doubt whether he would have lasted this long. He always comes across to me as someone who knows what he is doing and has found a way that works. He doesn't do interviews that often, but he comes across as a decent bloke when he does. How To Make Money Trading Shares http://www.fool.co.uk/money-talk/how-to-make-money-trading-shares-6270.aspx The Dos & Dont's Of Spread Betting http://www.fool.co.uk/money-talk/the-dos-donts-of-spread-betting-8122.aspx Rookie trader series. Later in the day I meet Robbie Burns, whose book "The Naked Trader" to some extent provided the inspiration for the "Rookie Trader" series. Personable, calm, witty and great company, Robbie is an inspiration, the perfect antidote to the stress of the adrenalin-fueled trading floors of the past few days. A former journalist, Robbie has quit the rat race and now makes a very good living trading from his waterside home and through his book he’s willing to show you and me how we could do the same. Robbie has a knack for spotting undervalued or overbought companies and for picking just the right moment to trade them. His trading record is published on his Website for anyone to scrutinize and in my inexperienced view it makes for very impressive reading. http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2009/07/02/rookie-trader-ready-to-cast-my-lines/
  5. The package I tend to use is made available free by IG Index when you sign up to a spreadbetting account. All of the spreadbetting companies tend to offer free real time charting as well as more advanced charting, but you may have to pay a fee for that. Even if you don't spread bet, it is worth opening an account just to get access to the charts. There are no conditions that you have to place a bet with them in order to use the charts once you have an account, but you will need to deposit some money with them. You don't have to spread bet at all if you don't want to. You can then set up the charts and indicators the way you want them and draw the TA lines as I did on the charts above. The only downside of the basic free charting package is that you only get access to a limited number of indicators, usually the more widely used ones like macd, rsi, stochastics. If you want something like CCI (commodity channel index) you will need to sign up to their more advanced charts. There is a free package at prorealtime.com, which I believe is what many of the spreadbetting companies use (or a version of). I would suggest keeping it simple. The most useful thing TA tends to offer is showing you the start of and keeping you on the right side of the trend if you can master it. The biggest thing you may well have to master is the watching and waiting game involved in identifying a change in trend. Worth noting also that all indicators are lagging, you are unlikely to ever get in 100% of the time at the beginning of a trend change. If you manage to master this then you are will fast become a trading genius and I hope you will let me in on how you do it. Most will settle for getting in as close as possible to the early stages of trend change and the main reason why this is the case is because of the dreaded whipsaw. This is when it looks like the trend is changing but actually it doesn't and you have been wrong footed by the market as the trend goes back to doing what it did before. The key is to try and get to know the way the indicators you choose actually work and stick with them. I think this guy is quite good in that it shows you a simple setup that probably works for him. His videos are worth watching and occasionally I post them here. http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555 Telecoms Plus is a Naked Trader favorite, he has made a ton of money from it, but there again he has been in it from the early days and is one of their Utility Warehouse distributors. The company is now in the FTSE250 and has a tendency to move very quickly, up and down. Again, it is a question of whether you can catch those swings, but I would say it is a good company and NT is probably holding on for a bid from one of the bigger telecoms players some day. He has a knack for being right on these things. Note; will have a look at Kentz later. NT has bought this one as well. From his last update; "And Kentz got sold down to a silly price (won a billion pound contract recently) topped up at 371.8. (Currently losing a few quid on the last Kentz and AN topups)"
  6. So, your timeframe to trade is about 18 months before going on your travels? I would suggest that the first thing you do, if you haven't already, is determine the time period for your trades. How long would you look to hold each trade? It is important because in looking for entry points and if you are going to use charts and TA to help, then the timeframe of the charts are important. As an example; Daily charts are probably best for short term swing trades lasting from days to a few weeks. Weekly charts are better for longer term trades, weeks to months. Ideally you are looking to get in at the beginning, or very near of any uptrend. If you are shorting the reverse will apply. So, BP on the daily chart has been in a down trend since around January. Not a severe one and the upturns which can be seen on the chart can be traded for swing traders, but had you bought in Jan and still holding on you would be on a paper loss. Now, with BP I doubt whether that would matter if your timeframe to hold was 3, 5 or 10 years, but on an 18 month timeframe you need to be aware that laggards effectively take up your trading pot if you are reluctant to sell for a loss. Needless to say, with the right technical set up you wouldn't have bought BP back in January . Swing trading you might have tried to time the lows in Feb, Mar, May and June and hope to get out without too much loss in April. The weekly BP chart clearly shows an uptrend in 2009, an down and uptrend in 2010 (the oil spill and bounce in share price after) and a downtrend for most of this year. If I was trading BP using the weekly chart and hoping to hold for any length of time (i.e. months) I'd be looking for this chart to suggest a new uptrend has begun before buying. If there is a positive on this chart it is that there is a support line going back 2 years at around 380. The next support line is around 300, the low at the time of the US oil spill. I will be surprised if it goes that low, but it could if we get more general market corrections.
  7. A useful series on trading psychology. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypCjoH1EsQ4&feature=related
  8. The bid-offer spreads on FTSE100 and many FTSE250 companies aren't that bad. It is only the AIM and smaller companies where the spreads can be silly. These subjects have been around for years, but I'm not sure what the purpose of them being so dominant in a forum which I thought was mainly about investment is. I don't share many of these views as to what is supposedly going to happen or what I'm supposed to "get", so perhaps I'm in the wrong place. I'm sure that is why many good members interested in investment no longer come here as much or at all.
  9. My theory on price inflation and the way stock markets behave in reaction to it (in general terms) is that during times of historically high price inflation for the country concerned and at a time of economic downturn or potential recession, markets will simply reflect this general uncertainty and may fall. There is no guarantee that during these periods of high inflation in the 5-30% range share markets can be guaranteed to keep pace. However, we are talking about historically high inflation as in 5-10% or at worse 15-30% range. This is clearly not hyper-inflation as we know it. In these periods of high price inflation markets will be expecting Government and Central Banks to address the issue, with over time inflation falling, so ultimately markets may well then rise in expectation of better times ahead. In other words, in times like these, too much price inflation is seen as a bad thing by the market and lower share prices may well reflect this fear. Once you get to hyper-inflation however, markets are looking for a store of value, they have effectively given up the ghost on the problem being resolved and want to try and preserve the value of their money as much as possible. Hence in Zimbabwe and I believe in Weimar Germany stocks rose with hyper inflation. However, given the damaging nature of out of control hyper inflation, stocks or anything for that matter is unlikely to stay on a par with it or ahead of it. Share price deflation does not really make sense in this scenario.
  10. What are the best gold/silver etf's for an ISA? What etf's or funds do members here use for gold/ISA purposes? I was thinking to list them here and keep an eye on performance. (Note; not really interested in any debate about the validity of such funds or the holding of physical as against buying an etf as all of this has been covered ad infinitum elsewhere).
  11. The share look cheap and are near the year low. Div Yield over 5%, quite high for something that would still be considered a growth share.
  12. So, how undervalued might some companies be? Have HP got this one woefully wrong compared to the market price of two days ago? Why are companies prepared to spend this much over the market price if markets are going south? Autonomy isn't a small tech company, it is FTSE100.
  13. I don't go to the main board much anymore, the aliens may abduct me. You are welcome to join in here.
  14. Aviva is an interesting one. I assume the share price is depressed because it is in the insurance sector, which appears to be unpopular at the moment, and it has a large pile of debt. Making tons of money though. If it cuts that debt pile as planned then I think it is dirt cheap. Div yield currently around 7%.
  15. BP was a very special case, for others the economic downturn would need to be really big to knock their dividend paying policy. The FTSE 100 is made up of many companies that to a large degree rely on overseas earnings, so it would take a world recession or depression to hit them. Not impossible, but short of another major banking crisis I think this is unlikely. I posted something earlier of US companies that continued to do well even after the turndown of 2007/8. For some of the FTSE 100 dividend payers even if they halve their dividend it's still more than saving cash with a bank. Your capital is clearly at risk with a share, but if you don't need it for 15-20 years a policy of buying the dividend payers on the dips is potentially a good one for all buy and hold investors (see post re Nadeem Walayat).
  16. Safest US stocks? Here's one view.
  17. This is what Nadeem Walayat wrote earlier this week. He has been mostly right re the stock market in the last 4 years or so and it somewhat adds to my dividend yield points above.
  18. It's an interesting one. At what stage does the EU decide that euro policy is decided by the markets or not? At times it is almost like some in the market have decided they don't like the euro so let's go after it to get rid of it. Reminds me a little of the old "run on the pound" that use to happen when the markets didn't like Government policy in the UK (usually old Labour type Government's). Someone might eventually ask who actually elects these money markets? No one, but that is where the real power lies, forget your little x on a ballot paper every 4 or 5 years.
  19. Not sure Germany, the lender of last resort it would seem, would be up for that. Not sure Germany, even as the lender of last resort, is big enough to give the markets what they want either.
  20. As of right now, 55 FTSE 100 companies are listed as paying a dividend of 3% or more. At a time when IR's are at an all time low, when savings rates for the most part are less than 2%, it is amazing that markets are falling so heavily giving that many companies seem to be rolling in cash and paying large amounts back to shareholders. What level of recession, double dip, etc, does the market seem to fear that would affect these dividend payers? Clearly not all of the 55 companies listed are offering safe dividend yields, anyone buying in needs to be careful of the future prospects, but I cannot recall a time in the past when yields were so high or companies so flush with cash just prior to a massive fall in share prices. Yet when you look at some of the technicals right now, MA death crosses, break downs on the longer term charts, etc, either this market has got it very wrong or they are gambling on the world economy falling off a cliff.
  21. It might be worth holding off on any longer term decisions until this market decides what is likely to happen going forward. I'm not sure the market itself has a clue about what is likely to happen. It reminds me of the baby in a pram throwing its toys out when it doesn't get what it wants or attention. The baby itself more often than not doesn't know what it is raging about but seeks attention which usually the parents end up giving. Market = baby, Parents = Government + Central banks. Market stirs things up, do what we want or we will throw the toys out - falling share prices - and shout and scream until we get what we want. What do they want? Massive financial guarantees from the EEC that it will prop everything up at any cost including market losses? Massive financial guarantees on the system while calling for austerity for ordinary folk? Massive cuts in Government spending while those same Governments give massive financial guarantees to the financial system? And finally they complain about lack of growth going forward, but no one is convinced the private sector can pick up the slack if Government and central banks step back. Oh, and that private sector needs help from banks that don't really want to lend. So the market response is? Hit banking shares hard! Oh what a tangled web.... I've just about heard every excuse going to justify market falls in the last two weeks and I am convinced they haven't got a clue what they want.
  22. Current FTSE 100 div yields of 4%+ (from DigitalLook.com) RSA Insurance Group 7.46% Aviva 7.20% Resolution Ltd. 6.73% Man Group 6.71% BAE Systems 6.69% Standard Life 6.12% National Grid 6.06% Scottish & Southern Energy 5.93% AstraZeneca 5.48% Vodafone Group 5.30% Royal Dutch Shell 'A' 5.10% Royal Dutch Shell 'B' 5.08% GlaxoSmithKline 5.08% United Utilities Group 5.06% Inmarsat 5.02% Marks & Spencer Group 5.01% Sainsbury (J) 4.99% British Land Co 4.78% Centrica 4.70% Legal & General Group 4.63% InterContinental Hotels Group 4.54% Capital Shopping Centres Group 4.50% ICAP 4.49% Severn Trent 4.46% Reed Elsevier 4.21% BT Group 4.18% Investec 4.16% Imperial Tobacco Group 4.11% British American Tobacco 4.10% Unilever 4.02% Tate & Lyle 4.02%
  23. Tesco on the weekly chart. About to turn or continuing that downward trend? Could go either way from here or consolidate between 370 and 400 before deciding what to do next. Anything below 350 on fundamentals looks cheap to me.