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Everything posted by Walktothewater

  1. I sold all my position couple weeks ago too https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@walktothewater/bitcoin-where-to-from-here In hindsight, very 'predictable' looking patterns have emerged over the last 4 or so spikes ps: just noticed am using your avatar Dr B, not intentional Lol, just love the coin!
  2. V nice call Dr B. Congrats. I bought some junior shares in April (CNL.TO, MAD.V, PVG.TO, RMX.TO)... seemed like max pessimism.. but was hard to pull the trigger!!
  3. Walktothewater


    Disagree that the bull market"completely destroyed". How do you figure this? Top at 1912 in Sept 11 hasn't even had a 50% correction, so maybe that's what's happening now, we go sub 1000 and find a bottom. IMO either (1) this is a correction within a bull, perhaps 20yrs from 2000/01, or (2) PMs are telegraphing massive deflation across most assets dead ahead (fits in w what the Japanese did on Friday in seemingly panic), or (3) TPTB on cusp of finishing off a total alice in wonderful repression, no markets, complete central planning etc. in which case sell PMs and buy real estate Whilst Im not happy, nor I am impressed at ALL with the chartists and technicians who shit the bed on this (when will they accept the charts are not natural market forces at work?), nothing in the last couple months has shifted me from the (1) camp. I say lets visit 900 and be done with the correction.
  4. Walktothewater


    Likewise, I enjoy your posts GF.
  5. There's an 800lb elephant wrt. physical gold and silver ownership that doesn't get much attention, namely the risk of massive capital gains type taxes. It's all well and good gold prices going to the moon, but what if the hammer comes down? For example, a 90% "emergency" capital gains tax, reliefs or allowances that suddenly don't apply, or special transaction fees/taxes putting off potential buyers of your metals? I don't see much popular opposition to this, particularly during a crisis situation. Metals in bailment will be the softest of targets. With capital and currency controls at Customs anyone with coins and small bars trying to sell abroad will be stuffed too. Is this just the (de-bunked) confiscation argument but by different name? Thoughts anyone...
  6. Interesting related story of a Californian couple who found a “buried treasure” of 1,400 or so gold coins on their property. http://www.sfgate.com/business/networth/article/Couple-s-gold-discovery-will-be-taxed-at-top-5271261.php Apparently, it’s an open and shut case for the IRS. The value of the find - conservatively estimated at $10m - is to be counted as taxable ordinary income for tax year 2013/14. So the poor buggers must pay almost 50% income tax! Not only that but they’ll face penalties, interest and perhaps legal action if they don’t settle up by end of tax year on April 15 I bet they wish they just shut the fck up! LOL Even if they argued that the find was a capital gain they'd still be stung for major taxes. This goes back to earlier points, keeping quiet about your physical gold is perhaps the best, and maybe only, way to avoid crucifying taxation. Sell a few ounces here and there to fund small purchases or on-going expenses This also reinforces my view that gold investors are on a collision course with tax authorities one way or another…
  7. Totally agree on Germany. One of the reasons I own a property there.
  8. yes I accept your point Jake. I have many coins myself bought for cash from different places. They have travelled with me all over. No one but me knows I have them. Ive no doubt many people feel "to hell with paying taxes", and plan to sell their physical bit by bit when, where and to whom and never declare it... BUt the problem arises when you have more than just a few ounces and plan to convert these into something substantial when the times comes, perhaps quickly and all at once. Outright purchase of a rental property, a business with premises, capital equipment etc. What then? How are you supposed to convert say 100oz into a property in London or wherever without getting whacked with a 90% "crisis" CGT rate ?? Unless you're willing to implement a total (and quasi legal) lifestyle change - changing tax residency or confusing the tax man with multiple residences all over the world, seeking out "under the radar" buyers of large quantities of physical i.e. effectively "laundering" your metals - I think many investors are gonna get stung at sell time….
  9. Walktothewater

    James Turk and the Money Bubble

    Living in London and being short property, long gold must be an awful experience. The belly of the beast….
  10. Walktothewater


    Is my point really that hard to see? I am saying that if the TPTB manage to actually properly destroy this bull market -- as would be indicated by sustained lower prices like $11 for silver (as suggested not by me but the OP) -- then I'm suggesting we enter a full on alice-in-wonderland of financial repression. As in a full on police state of capital controls with every price rigged and zero free markets. It s a frightening prospect akin to entering some sort of Dark Ages, but it cant be ruled out IMO
  11. Walktothewater


    A grind down to $800/$11 or worse and staying there for few weeks would represent massive and IMO unrecoverable technical damage. It would be an utter disaster for goldbugs. It would represent destruction of the "fundamental" case for years to come. If it happened the banksters would have other "successes" such as US bonds suppressed below 3% as far as eye can see, capital controls, bail-ins, and complete financial repression - i.e. all the present problems "solved". I'm not sure holding PMs makes any practical sense in that sort of reality. Perhaps you can buy food or stuff locally. But you really would be going hard against the grain of mainstream society. Thus probably best to go with the flow and take on a BTL mortgage etc. I think its unlikely but who knows.
  12. Walktothewater


    $11 would be the end of this bull market. Gold would be what, $800? A few weeks at those sort of prices mean the debt and over-leverage problem is fixed, govts running sustainable budgets and new growth is providing employment and real wage growth. $11 silver would mean a definitive sell on pm's and buy the Dow, fund your pension, take out a big mortgage, etc. There wouldnt be a single mine left in operation anywhere.
  13. I look at this two ways. First, the 'total ounce' view. I want to have a certain quantity of physical for xyz purposes. Say e.g. you want to end up with a min two properties in UK, one to live in and one to rent. If you have zero properties now you'll need 120oz. My research suggests an average UK house will revert to 60oz at some point before the mania top in gold. Second, is the % of assets view. Mine would be considered 'high' for two reasons: One, i consider my base as current assets plus total remaining lifetime net earnings. I believe GF has made this point before. My career is like owning a bond with coupons til I retire, but those are paid out in fiat. Two, forget diversification. As of about 4 years ago my earnings started going exclusively into acquiring cash-flow property (no debt) and precious metals. Month in, month out. I have almost nothing in the stock market bar legacy stuff such as uranium shares etc. I have perhaps 5% in cash at any one time. I also invest heavily in my career and don't hold back owning valuable cashable possessions - vehicles, technical equipment, high end furniture - their lifetime depreciation is way lower than fiat. wttw
  14. Walktothewater

    where to ride out the storm?

    In the interests of starting a (slightly) fresh new topic, I have a question for the membership... Firstly, here's the reason for the question. Time's up. I dunno, pick your timeframe, 2yrs max, tomorrow? We know what's coming - the start of a global social and economic reset. Massive social unrest, unemployment, etc. the "greater depression" as Doug Casey coined it. I want to be fully positioned, but plan to have all my ducks in row within next 2-3mths. The question is, is the following a good plan, or what would you do? I've no dependents, >40yrs old. I've bought for cash a decent flat in a well to do area of a large German city. It's secure and on 3rd floor, in, as I said, a decent area walkable to the centre, a large park and other decent areas within the city. I have about 30oz in physical gold (various coins), which I aiming to up to 50oz by end of summer. I have no debt. I have a reliable paid for car insured in UK. I have EU and Canadian passports/Citizenship. I am COMPLETELY discounting all my future pension promises. I have about EUR 100,000 cash, mostly in EUR. Which I could literally put under mattress (with the gold). Like I said, the flat is particularly secure and liveable, as is the city and immediate area it's in. Not a bad plan, but could I do better? Before you suggest latin america etc. No I've lived in central america, worked and owned property there. Not interested. Africa not interested. Asia, hmm? maybe. I've been to 58 countries, lived in 5. I am prepared to go anywhere. Why saddle myself down with a property you might say, well where to I keep the gold? Where do I sleep at night without a landlord telling me what to do, where to go? Why Germany? Germany is the soundest economy in Europe. Germans like gold and hate inflation. Comments appreciated
  15. My German is woeful but Im working on it... part of the problem is all the Germans I nknow speak better English than me A real estate agent has offered me 85k cash to sell my berlin flat for 97k. And he'll take another 5-7% commission from the buyer. And I may have to bribe my tenant to leave. With the proceeds I may buy this, http://www.immobilienscout24.de/expose/67477978?PID=E-54629062&ftc=9004EXPXXUA&_s_cclid=1353957290 This would be 200k easy in equivalent area of Berlin. But rents for 80% berlin rate, more if you short let it (easily done). Evidence enough? It is for me
  16. 53sqm will include the balcony, of which only 50% of the square area is counted - never got a straight answer as to this unusual practice - typically quirky German understatement. In any event, that agent has 3 flats in that same building. Don't expect much customer service from German agents. Berlin - avoid. Unless you want to engage in flipping pre-builds etc. Berlin sadly is well into it's parabolic phase. Germany has very quietly and without any fanfare morphed into the most pleasant society in all of Europe, IMHO of course. But I do base this on extensive global experience. Leipzig resilient in global crisis? Attitude to foreigners? All i can say is see for yourself. English is spoken by everyone under 30 and widely spoken by everyone. Budapest is fine I still like it, especially if you are in your 20s or 30s, but it's a bit edgy outside of the core expat areas. I prefer the below radar and off beat nature of place like Leipzig. here's a good article I saw recently, http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/leipzig-is-the-new-berlin-a-863088.html Other top places in Europe I like are Bremen, Hamburg, Vienna, Tallinn, Sofia, Cork, around Lake Como and Costa Blanca (Moraira, Calpe, Benissa). Prague is well past its sell by date - avoid. Amsterdam has a special place in my heart, but its very very expensive dear me. I like Faro and Sagres in the Algarve too - they are v cheap and with v beautiful coast. All hugely personal choices. I suggest you get an older big motorway cruiser (530d, A8) or camper van and spend several months touring around. You'll never discover your piece of heaven via the internet.
  17. Leipzig beats Budapest IMHO. I've lived in both. Amsterdam is 7hrs train time, Luxembourg no more than that I'd imagine. Here's a nice (small-ish 53sqm) flat in a top location. Walk out your door to cafes, trams... http://www.immobilienscout24.de/expose/67104332?navigationServiceUrl=/search/shortlist/exposeNavigation/navigate.go?prevId%3D67359177%26nextId%3D64805771%26realEstateId%3D67104332%26realEstateType%3D12&navigationHasPrev=true&navigationHasNext=true&navigationBarType=SHORTLIST Here's my website for more info. www.lostinleipzig.com
  18. You are being disingenuous. I'm not taking about irrelevant BTL tycoons or other small timers. I'm talking about the top few hundred landowners and their families in the UK as outlined here, http://www.who-owns-britain.com/ There was also an excellent article here a few years back, http://www.newstates...-labour-britain There is nothing but an illusion of a market for land in the UK. The top of the pyramid in the UK tightly control the marginal supply of land and do everything possible to curtail that supply while stoking demand. The whole system has evolved over hundreds of years to enrich the top by extracting land/property rent from the plebs below. Everything else in UK Plc is a side show. Why do think there's no land tax? Why do you think property taxation is not progressive? This is why the great unwashed fall over themselves to pay through the nose to 'buy' a cramped property on a postage stamp plot. Spend time in continental Europe and you will appreciate the difference. In Germany in 8 years I can count the number of "my property" conversations on one hand.
  19. London is expensive because of the embedded hundreds year old culture of rent-seeking by the land hoarding elites. When you starve people of space the prices of everything are pushed up. London is compact and 'walkable' as you say, but purely by default. But define “walkable”? If you define it as being able to live without a car in Leipzig, yes absolutely, I do. Is it pleasant to use a bicycle, yes, very. Even in winter. Is there an extensive, subsidised, high-quality public transport system, yes. Is it stress-free to move about with plenty of well organized space, greenery and segregated infrastructure for bikes, walking etc. yes. This arises because there is no 'Duke of Leipzig' gaming the supply of land to extract maximum rent from the plebs. Instead, the space and land use policy as in all of Germany is set up entirely for the benefit of the inhabitants, not to enrich a few. Have you seen the public infrastructure throughout Germany or northern continental Europe? By my definition, most European cities are “walkable”. London is walkable only in the most narrow definition. When I’m in London I walk and take the tube etc. but is it pleasant, not really. I find it crowded, noisy, dirty, stressful and like I say without the offsetting benefits of Asian cities. At least Bangkok is cheap !
  20. London is way too crowded, it feels claustrophobic. Without the low cost or warm climate of Asian cities. In the east and south east parts London is very tense. Yes it's walkable, if you don't get pushed off the path by the heaving crowds. And if you don't already own your home forget it. Private renting is laughably expensive not to mention tenuous, and dealing with the spivvery of 'letting agents'.... spare me... And buying, why pay those prices?? There are numerous better places to live, even in Europe alone. London is liveable it you bought a nice pad say 15 years ago and have a good job. London is cool if you're 18-25 yrs old. It's great hunting grounds for well-off aging Lotharios. It's heaven on earth if you're from a village in Backwardeasteuroistan or an economic refugee from collapsing economies of Ireland, Spain etc. It's great if you're at the top of your game in banking or media or legal or whatever. And sure who wouldn't enjoy a weekend city break in London?... although I wouldnt want to be around for the next peasants uprising (totally inevitable)... For me, after a few days sleeping on friends sofas - after all who can afford the luxury of spare guest room with ensuite? - I'm more than happy to get back to Leipzig and my wonderful apartment (God knows how much equivalent would cost in London now, £750k?), laid back people, no bling or uber rich, and generally higher standards and quality of life for everyone.
  21. Walktothewater

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I’m not sure what your point is. Do you disagree with the data? The facts, not opinions, but the facts are this: Pounds are the currency unit of the UK. A pound from last year buys less stuff today than it did last year and will buy even less next year. I.e. their value is being diminished. Ergo the effect of nominal price falls is magnified by the falling purchasing power of the currency unit. You may indeed be spot on in your analysis of what people think or what interests them or what XYZ means to the average person. But that doesn’t alter the fact that real house prices, that is prices measured in purchasing power adjusted pounds, have fallen more than nominal.
  22. Walktothewater

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Because it's correct, though the 'penny hasnt dropped' yet for the average person. And i doubt it ever will. Joe Soap gets to say yeah my property is still worth X, forgetting of course that X buys far less of everything else then it did before. In hard money terms (gold) property has well and truly crashed. But that's mumbo jumbo talk LOL...
  23. Walktothewater

    The U.K. Is Not O.K.

    You're a realist apparently. But a realistic who doesn't doubt is an apologist, at best. If one spends enough time in the UK you come to realise that the system here has an inherently negative view of mankind. The starting position in the UK is that Man will ruin anything that is free. Will cheat if given the opportunity. Will impose his will without care if given the opportunity. Will not share or help unless there is personal gain. This is the core belief system around which all the systems of the UK appear to operate. That's why there's CCTV cameras everywhere in London and why there are endless signs 'strongly suggesting' you what, when, how and how much. It's a short logical step to believe that nothing thus can be 'free' and everything must be incentivised to within an inch of its life in order for civilised behaviour be forced from the inherently vile Man. The Duke of Westminster would charge people to walk down Oxford street if there was a practical way to do so. After all it's just extracting rent from trespassers for their own good. TfL pay this man £200,000+ pa. for having their Victoria coach station on his land. This system developed over a time when the view above was essentially correct. Might was right, and if King XYZ didn't murder his opponents he'd be killed himself. Bullying was how things got done. And this system flourished. In fact it ended up a massive Empire the likes unseen since the Romans. An Empire based on a negative view of mankind. And the UK gene pool has been gradually cleansed of dissenters to this worldview. Only the plucky and slightly insane Irish could fight it. That's why millions of people in UK are grateful for their daily sh1t sandwich and are such dogged 'realists'. For these reasons, the situation is so intractable and change so utterly unlikely that if I was advising a young person I'd say they must either become a 'realist' quickly, sharpen their elbows and get on with the programme, whatever your programme might be (e.g. worker ant in London or benefit scrounger in sink estate) or leave. I reckon leaving is a pretty good option for many young people in UK today.
  24. Walktothewater

    The U.K. Is Not O.K.

    "Like it or not", "better than many have", "we are where we are", "change (if it ever comes)", "never been, never will" You sound so hammered down by the UK paradigm of fear.
  25. Walktothewater

    The U.K. Is Not O.K.

    You mean the status quo? The awful reality of fear mongering, artificial scarcity, limited horizons, make do, debt slavery, conformity, stiff upper lip, hierarchy, and deference to the elite who are engaged in never-ending rent seeking. That reality?