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Euro Chocozone Buyer

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  1. SECONDHAND Market in Makati - Data points

    Makati is really a "bloodbath" and that will become very clear once you look at the following website https://81property.com/properties/?id=buy It is unclear whether the previously mentioned unit has been sold or not, as yesterdays ad URL is no longer functional, - maybe there is some "negotiation" going on behind the curtain, - but looking at that website you can see that a unit in the Beacon was sold for a mere PHP110,000 per square meter. That happened probably in the secondary market and should further serve as a severe warning that all the hype about rising prices is nothing but "smoke and mirrors" and "hot air". https://81property.com/properties/?id=buy-details&uID=Beacon-4215.16 And that probably indicates that the smart money is leaving and more money is "exiting" Makati. Because no matter how you look at it. The Beacon is a high quality building, yet it cannot fetch even a decent sales price. These examples confirm my thesis that MAKATI is spiraling down and that is even before the huge supply increase starting at the end of next year. Again these prices are UNIMAGINABLE in PASAY. Yet in Makati it is the order of the day. "the mighty MAKATI" has fallen. (out of favor) There is no liquidity left in Makati. There are insufficient "new entrants" who can provide a floor under the secondary market and so investors will be at the mercy of the "unknown". Combine a huge supply increase in 2020 with a - who knows - dramatic decline in the local and international share markets, and you have the recipe for a total collapse. Rents, capital values might decline by 30pct or more in a couple of years from now when "the dust finally settles". I don't believe any of the reports coming out from Colliers. They're all in bed with the major developers. There is no honest system of tracking prices but these little "anecdotal" stories tell the real story and it doesn't look "fine". There are going to be major disappointments and it won't be "pretty".
  2. Hi Your reasoning looks faulty to me. BGC has also welcomed many multinationals and large corporations setting up their new HQ in BGC. The likes of GOOGLE, You tube, Megaworld, DB, Citibank, HSBC and so many others. However, the expected "uptick" in rental prices did not materialize as of today. Why would there be an "uptick" in prices when AFT is completed? It is exactly the same thing that will happen in the "HOT AIR" district of Makati. Why would the outcome be different this time??? Most of the tenants in those buildings will pay the locals just a very small salary. It won't be enough to break the downward spiral in rental prices. The reality is that it is the Chinese who pay and sometimes over pay, and their favorite spot remains the Bay Area. Some of them are now even contemplating setting up factories in PH to avoid the US-China trade sanctions/tariffs. In other words, Makati can become another "pearl harbour". When all these flats will be completed in 2020, it will be a total devastation for existing landlords. Better sell now while the market still "appears to be " reasonably strong.
  3. """ Manila Bay has overtaken Ortigas Center starting 3Q2018 and we expect the reclaimed CBD to overtake other established business hubs such as Makati CBD by 2021. By then, Colliers sees the Bay Area having a total of 29,500 units, higher than Makati CBD’s 28,700. """ http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/philippines/about/media/manila-likely-to-outpace-2017-condominium-sales
  4. SECONDHAND Market in Makati - Data points

    MAKATI. The rise and fall of Makati and a lot of "hot air". Voila, to prove my point here is a recent ad that i just saw in olx.ph https://www.olx.ph/item/studio-for-sale-in-makati-ID8xKhJ.html This is a MEGAWORLD studio unit, almost 41square meters that is being sold for PHP5Million. This breaks down to PHP121,000 per square meters. It is a MEGAWORLD condo, so no questions about quality here. Dressed up by OASIS interior design. Such a price is UNIMAGINABLE in PASAY CITY. The secondary market is very strong in PASAY and almost ABSENT in MAKATI. bgc = Better Go to the C(sea) I have heard stories of other people who couldn't resell their preselling condo's in Makati due to the lack of a resale market, and it goes on and on. Megaworld condo's that couldn't even get sold at PHP150K per square meter. In Pasay you get PHP180K per square meters easily. Makati is a lot of hot air and "past glory".
  5. JLL 3Q 2018 Property Market Overview is online. + On page 15 of the report I notice that there will be a huge increase in new supply in PASAY during 4Q2018 and the whole year of 2019, + Taguig city will see a moderate increase during 4Q2018 and a rather large increase in 2019. +BIG SURPRISE. MAKATI will have the biggest supply increase in 2020. That probably has something to do with the RISE and AIR residences In 2020 the supply increase in MAKATI will be twice that of PASAY+TAGUIG combined. Their forecast is for 76,800 new residential units to hit the market FROM 4Q2018 until the end of 2020, of which 23pct will be for MAKATI and 23pct for PASAY city so 17,600 new units will be added in each of both districts 4Q2018 until end of 2020. In terms of rents, surprise here, the median rent is already higher in PASAY city than in MAKATI city. The rent varies between PHP1,100 to PHP1,700 per square meter in PASAY, so the average is PHP1,400 while the rent varies between PHP510 and PHP1900 per square meter in MAKATI district, so the average is PHP1,200. For taguig city the average rent varies between PHP600 and PHP1500, so average PHP1,050. Yes that is what I noticed also. Taguig and BGC are not popular with the Chinese, Chinese like the sea and the area of Makati that borders PASAY, (chino roces). Even buildings like San Lorenzo Place on Chino Roces command higher rents than similar Avida style buildings in BGC. BGC is really having a hard time getting good rents. I see the same thing on rentpad. The asking rents for buildings in BGC are too low, compared to buildings in PASAY/MAKATI. For the moment, BGC is the trainwreck. And they're launching new towers costing PHP300K + per sq meters. ""IN 3Q2018 rental rates in PASAY CITY move up, ranking second to MAKATI city, primarily due to employees of Chinese online gaming companies. Landlords are asking higher rates due to the willingness of Chinese companies to pay at initial asking rates to house their employees" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ It now remains to be seen how the big supply increase will be absorbed by the market. According to some commentators thousands of condos are needed in the bay area to satisfy the new demand. Everything will -primarily - depend on the growth of online gaming in China. And another warning for MAKATI. Big supply increase is coming in 2020. So the pain will be felt everywhere. BGC rental rates are low but except for a little spike in 2019 relatively little new supply is coming available. Pasay CITY will experience a massive supply increase starting now for 5 quarters, while MAKATI will be hit in 2020. http://www.jll.com.ph/philippines/en-gb/research/122/metro-manila-property-marke-overview-3q2018
  6. It seems to me that mr/dr Bubb has underestimated the potential of this area. """"" According to a report by property firm Santos Knight Frank, residential rental rates in the Bay Area surged by a whopping 62.2% during the 2nd quarter of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. This rate of increase is much faster compared to the other central business districts in Metro Manila. """" https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/212443-how-china-online-gambling-addiction-reshaping-manila
  7. One motivated seller "We are still paying the rest of the loan in the bank.Selling it for a lower price as we cannot manage it anymore" https://www.olx.ph/item/condo-in-breeze-residences-ID8yeIe.html?h=5a12353675
  8. SECONDHAND Market in Makati - Data points

  9. BGC / The Fort: Uptown, Park Avenue, etc... How Bullish?*

    ART - OR CON ART ???? https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=2125418 And a warning. "Don't wet your pants just yet OLX is not that a reliable source for example it still lists park suites tower 1 condos at 180,000 per sqm I think the initial pre-selling price. They are also selling condos with take over payment options meaning that some poor guy has paid for a few years but fallen behind on payments and are willing to let go without compensation. This is very worry some to me as it means that the future owners cant sell those condos even at the low pre-selling price they got 3 - 4 years back. As long as I can get rental income to cover the mortgage interest I will be fine though but I suspect a lot of people will suffer when all of this inventory turns over and the main business around are call centers which is minimum wage.
  10. https://www.philstar.com/business/2018/09/30/1855832/property-prices-rise-q2-bsp Excerpts - added by DrB: The central bank’s residential real estate price index (RREPI) rose by 4.8 percent to 117.2 in the second quarter from 111.8 in the same quarter last year. The BSP said the average price of townhouses booked a double-digit increase of 13.3 percent, followed by condominium units with 9.1 percent and single-detached housing units with 0.6 percent. Costs to acquire homes grew faster at 5.1 percent in the National Capital Region (NCR) as higher growth in prices of condominium units and townhouses offset the decline in prices of single-detached houses and duplexes. . . . In the second quarter, the BSP said about seven in 10 or 77.1 percent residential real estate loans were intended for the purchase of new housing units. By type of housing unit, 46.1 percent of residential property loans were for the acquisition of condominium units, followed by single-detached units with 45.6 percent and townhouses with 7.8 percent.
  11. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2018/09/19/USDPHP-Price-May-Join-USDSGD-Descent-USDIDR-Chart-Eyes-Breakout.html USDPHP may have peaked, according to this analyst.
  12. https://www.olx.ph/item/2-bedroom-unit-in-avida-towers-verte-for-sale-ID8tPAW.html?h=d922aeaea7 For turnover this SeptemberCash or Assume Balance (currently loaned with BDO) BDO also lends to Ayala projects' customers.
  13. Can it (this) also happen in the PH? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-23/how-turkeys-lira-crisis-was-written-across-istanbuls-skyline Well there are some similarities. 1. What is most worrisome is that the BSP is totally behind the curve, and that lending rates are lower than the inflation rate, which could lead to reckless lending and explosive money growth. (and a loss of confidence in the currency). BSP needs to act and the sooner the better. I believe this was also the case in Turkey. (Turkey was worse because the central bank lost its independence but the core issue is the same). 2. """""" The construction industry is a prime example of that dependence. Much of its capital comes from loans denominated in foreign currency """"" I don't have the time nor expertise to go thru all the official filings, but exactly how much of this new construction is financed thru foreign loans in PH? Over Reliance on imports + construction being 18pct of the Turkish economy. Sounds familiar?? I guess PH won't be any better. 3. """" Up to half the buyers of luxury properties built by companies such as Kiler Holding were expected to be wealthy investors from Gulf countries, Bulut said, especially after 2012 when legal barriers to foreign ownership were lifted. But the demand from the Gulf failed to rise to the level hoped for by Turkish real estate developers. Now the lack of demand, alongside rising costs for iron and steel, has caused many projects to stall. """ Here one could make a case that it is the Chinese that the Philippine property developers have been courting. Every property pusher, from even Colliers to the stock salesman from last week pumping his Manila Bay projects, has been promoting the Chinese as the "holy grail". According to them, the Chinese are the ones who are going to solve every and all problems in PH Real Estate, but there's a catch folks. The Chinese themselves are now in big doo-doo. FYI Here is James Richards article. Prepare for a YUAN maxi devaluation. https://dailyreckoning.com/prepare-for-a-chinese-maxi-devaluation/ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ What should the worried property investor do now?? Any suggestions??
  14. SMPH has a much stronger chart. SMPH is in a narrow sideways channel as of late. SMDC is the Philippines. Not Ayala, Not Megaworld, Not DMCI, Not/Nor any other property developer. It will be interesting to see which direction SMPH will follow now. The European direction which is down, or the USA direction which is still up. Time will tell.
  15. They are throwing light on the Chinese BPO online gaming phenomenon. It is a different kind of BPO than in Makati/BGC where most BPO owners are Filipinos. Here they are almost all Chinese. They are directly flown in from China. The macapagal/MOA has no high rises due to the proximity of the airport. (= scarcity leads to higher prices)/ And then they say there is a need for "tens of thousands of condos" just to house these people. And it is also surprising that the vacancy rate in the Bay Area is lower than in BGC, according to Colliers 2Q2018. So as of now, still no train wreck. And residential rents are also approaching PHP1000/ per square meter per month, on par with Makati/BGC. https://rentpad.com.ph/places/breeze-residences/5089b36085 In another video the guy wonders if Property Prices are just too high in PH now.