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Euro Chocozone Buyer

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  1. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2018/09/19/USDPHP-Price-May-Join-USDSGD-Descent-USDIDR-Chart-Eyes-Breakout.html USDPHP may have peaked, according to this analyst.
  2. https://www.olx.ph/item/2-bedroom-unit-in-avida-towers-verte-for-sale-ID8tPAW.html?h=d922aeaea7 For turnover this SeptemberCash or Assume Balance (currently loaned with BDO) BDO also lends to Ayala projects' customers.
  3. Can it (this) also happen in the PH? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-23/how-turkeys-lira-crisis-was-written-across-istanbuls-skyline Well there are some similarities. 1. What is most worrisome is that the BSP is totally behind the curve, and that lending rates are lower than the inflation rate, which could lead to reckless lending and explosive money growth. (and a loss of confidence in the currency). BSP needs to act and the sooner the better. I believe this was also the case in Turkey. (Turkey was worse because the central bank lost its independence but the core issue is the same). 2. """""" The construction industry is a prime example of that dependence. Much of its capital comes from loans denominated in foreign currency """"" I don't have the time nor expertise to go thru all the official filings, but exactly how much of this new construction is financed thru foreign loans in PH? Over Reliance on imports + construction being 18pct of the Turkish economy. Sounds familiar?? I guess PH won't be any better. 3. """" Up to half the buyers of luxury properties built by companies such as Kiler Holding were expected to be wealthy investors from Gulf countries, Bulut said, especially after 2012 when legal barriers to foreign ownership were lifted. But the demand from the Gulf failed to rise to the level hoped for by Turkish real estate developers. Now the lack of demand, alongside rising costs for iron and steel, has caused many projects to stall. """ Here one could make a case that it is the Chinese that the Philippine property developers have been courting. Every property pusher, from even Colliers to the stock salesman from last week pumping his Manila Bay projects, has been promoting the Chinese as the "holy grail". According to them, the Chinese are the ones who are going to solve every and all problems in PH Real Estate, but there's a catch folks. The Chinese themselves are now in big doo-doo. FYI Here is James Richards article. Prepare for a YUAN maxi devaluation. https://dailyreckoning.com/prepare-for-a-chinese-maxi-devaluation/ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ What should the worried property investor do now?? Any suggestions??
  4. SMPH has a much stronger chart. SMPH is in a narrow sideways channel as of late. SMDC is the Philippines. Not Ayala, Not Megaworld, Not DMCI, Not/Nor any other property developer. It will be interesting to see which direction SMPH will follow now. The European direction which is down, or the USA direction which is still up. Time will tell.
  5. They are throwing light on the Chinese BPO online gaming phenomenon. It is a different kind of BPO than in Makati/BGC where most BPO owners are Filipinos. Here they are almost all Chinese. They are directly flown in from China. The macapagal/MOA has no high rises due to the proximity of the airport. (= scarcity leads to higher prices)/ And then they say there is a need for "tens of thousands of condos" just to house these people. And it is also surprising that the vacancy rate in the Bay Area is lower than in BGC, according to Colliers 2Q2018. So as of now, still no train wreck. And residential rents are also approaching PHP1000/ per square meter per month, on par with Makati/BGC. https://rentpad.com.ph/places/breeze-residences/5089b36085 In another video the guy wonders if Property Prices are just too high in PH now.
  6. Hi "Inflation chews up your lunch money" 1. Inflation in PH is currently at 5,6 to 6pct -- so even a CD offering you 4,5 to 5 pct return - will not produce a profit for you. 2. If Asia becomes a Turkey and we get a repeat of the Asian Financial Crisis, then CDs are a guaranteed money loser. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-14/forget-about-turkey-asia-elephant-room 3. Buying newly launched and almost RFO units from developers at prices that are 40-50pct higher than the secondary market is asking for trouble. But property, bought at market prices can offer some (- and better -) protection in case of a complete collapse of trust in the currency. 4. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-14/indonesia-s-tough-love-won-t-crisis-proof-the-rupiah https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-08-10/philippine-central-bank-still-behind-the-curve-continuum-says-video The strange thing is that while the real interest rate is negative -1,46 for PH compared with positive 0,5/2 pct for India/Indonesia, PH Peso is doing a lot better than Indonesia/India/Even China. (losing only 6pct against USD, while 7,2 for ID and 8,2 for IN) Apparently everybody is waiting for more rate hikes in PH. So the monetary policies of PH and USA central banks are very much the same. They are both tightening. 5, It is unclear how this will resolve from here, but I believe that PH Peso will perform and hold up extremely well compared with all other emerging market currencies. In fact, when the Fed will reverse policy early (or in the middle of) next year, or mr Trump will use the currency as weapon in trade, (the US Treasury has an exchange stabilization fund that they can use for this purpose) the US Dollar rally might suddenly fade, and Asian currencies, in particular, PH Peso might emerge as very strong currencies. When QE was launched in USA in march 2009, USDPHP fell from 48 to 40 in about 2 years. 6, PH Peso is still a safe haven for EUR investors, because while EURUSD is down around 10pct (from the early february highs) , EURPHP is down around 7pct but the PH yield tends to be higher than the USD yields, so "PH Peso" is still a safe haven currency, for the moment. 7. When PH interest rates will be raised again to 5,5 to 6pt in the coming months and the entire developed world starts easing next year, the stage will be set for a very strong rally in PH Peso and it might start as early as in the middle of next year. EURPHP has probably peaked at 65 early february this year. We will probably never see these highs again as Europe is beyond peak spending, and as Italian problems will come more to the forefront in the coming months. USA investors still have a window of opportunity for maybe the next 3-12 months in terms of the currency, as I believe USDPHP might be close to the top as well.
  7. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-03/philippine-peso-fortunes-are-changing-as-bullish-momentum-grows Things are looking up for the Philippine peso after it suffered one of the biggest losses in the region in the first half of the year. The peso has outperformed all its Asian peers since mid-year, supported by increasing expectations of another central bank rate hike at the Aug. 9 policy meeting. Technical indicators suggest the currency has more room to recover Charts show that bullish momentum is growing for the peso. Spot dollar-peso has fallen below its 50-day moving average support for the first time since May 11. The moving average convergence-divergence momentum indicator has declined bearishly below the signal line and zero. Another momentum signal, the slow stochastics, also remains bearish. The peso lost 6 percent against the dollar this year and was at 53.13 on Friday. Immediate support for the dollar-peso is seen at 52.643, which is the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of move up between January 5 to June 27. “The break of 53 opens the door to a much larger correction for the greenback towards the 52.50-52.75 levels,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc., the nation’s largest bank by assets. “This is supported by fundamentals. The market is anticipating tighter monetary policy after the central bank signaled strong action to address inflation.”
  8. BGC / The Fort: Uptown, Park Avenue, etc... How Bullish?*

    https://propertypassbook.com/real-estate/manila-taguig-city/avida-towers-verte/ A new website that lets you analyze yields for most buildings ALL AROUND THE WORLD. Wow.
  9. This is a ridiculous price. I think they saw that many Chinese are renting at that area (in Oriental Garden, the Beacon...) so they think it will be easy to have the unit for rent, that's why they put this absurd price up. Most of those Chinese are working for online gambling companies. One day there will be a crackdown on those shady businesses and that area will become a ghost town right afterward lol. https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1943080&page=3 RE. Red Residences This is the first of many soon-to-rise SMDC condos along Chino Roces Ave. You may think the units here are expensive now, but when the other towers are launch, this will be the cheapest. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ https://gefira.org/en/2017/12/05/in-300-years-there-are-only-300-japanese-left/ Japan could become the next ghost country. Vacancy rates have exploded from 0pct to 15pct, and outside of the big cities, it is worse.
  10. There are also updated prices for Avida Asten. According to this facebook page, the price per square meter for a 1BR flat in Avida Asten 24,60 square meter - PHP4,444,000, that's PHP180,000 per square meter. (in the previous post - dec 2016 - it was only PHP115K per square meter). https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=AyalaLand Hong Kong
  11. Most PH property buyers (seem to) live in "stone age". https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1757024&page=21 Just read today that most of the reopened units in the Montane were sold. And this while there might be several buyers who need to offload their investments at cost or a little profit - (admitted for Ayala that's quite difficult). In any case, I get the impression these buyers don't know the internet, what it can do for them, and how it can disrupt traditional business processes. Just a website like OLX.Ph or dotproperty.ph or any other listing site might do the job and could inform these people that they "might" overpay their unit, perhaps by 50pct but what has to happen, has to happen. Over the course of time this will change, and especially the younger generation, which is more internet savvy. And we're going to see it improve. Yes some people need to learn it "the hard way". Unfortunate but that is the way it is. Most of the time property buyers tend to be older people, -- they might not be familiar with the benefits that the internet offers. Hard to believe. While one can have reservations about the practices of developers, I equally consider the practice of overpaying your investments by 30-40-50pct (higher than the market price) as gross incompetence, or reckless behavior or irrational exubarance or too much optimism. And let's not forget. There's also criminality involved many times. Real estate has money laundering tentacles, everybody knows this. PH is not immune to this. The banking system offers a lot of secrecy. FYI - the plane ticket Europe PH standard price - return ticket Cathay Pacific BRU-HKG-MNL or AMS-HKG-MNL is EUR740 (last week of august - 2nd week of september). But Air China offers the cheapest return ticket Geneva_MNL EUR370, and ZURICH-MNL EUR400. (return, and you're even able to change the date for a lower cost than cheaper normal tickets). Service is quite similar. Air China is the top airline in China. The flight will be 1 hour longer, stop in PEK, that's all People who look for bargains can find bargains, even today. But the plasticized red ribbon deals offered today can become a huge hangover tomorrow. Another negative aspect that will start to kick in now is the yuan devaluation against USD and PHP. Chinese buying interest might dry up. However, if CNY drops 40pct against PHP, and PH real estate drops 30pct, then they could still book a profit in CNY. Just like what happened to the Russian buyers in Pattaya a few years ago when OIL and the ruble fell at the same time. (Even though I think the Chinese who escaped to PH, most of them, if given a chance, will try to stay in PH permanently ). (After all, in PH there is political, religious and economic freedom, in CH there is none, and CH is becoming a dictatorship). https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNYPHP=X/ In many ways this exchange rate chart will show you the "disappointment of the 21st century" and the "surprise of the 21st century"
  12. 1, Yes the window of opportunity has closed for the moment. it was possible 3-4 years ago, but preselling prices have gone wild now. 2, I read many messages on skyscrapercity and cap.gains taxes can be avoided for SMDC, Federal Land if the unit is not fully turned over yet and paid up 25pct to 50pct. AYALA prevents the transfer of ownership during preselling I believe. The only way to transfer it then is it to fully pay it but when you fully pay you must pay the CGT so AYALA is the only major developer where you can't do it. When you sign agreement you let the new buyer pay the CGT if any is or would become due. For fully paid up unit and turned over unit, there is no escaping the CGT in my opinion. 3, You just post on OLX.Ph . Had found a buyer. He very much liked the "disintermediation". No brokers, no middlemen. He was very happy about it. And he paid the CGT himself. OK many people are timid and afraid and look for brokers but there are people who understand that they're basically just an extra charge to the transaction. 4, Maybe the stock markets will take a hit and sentiment will turn. This might start at year end when the ECB stops QE in Europe. From then on we will be in worldwide QT and troubles will/might/could start then everywhere. 5, There are unfortunately also many other buyers who face this "dilemma" and have not been that as lucky as me, because I look at the facebook page of VIERA residences. And every 2 to 3 weeks or so, they have a newly reopend units. That building was fully sold 2 years ago. It means that there are still buyers who face this dilemma and cannot accept the fact that reality is different from the story portrayed by the media, and that they refuse to accept reality, because selling at a small loss is better than selling at a 50pct loss in case of Maceda Law or even 100pct loss, depending on the contract they have with DMCI. Sad but it is the reality. https://www.facebook.com/vieraresidencesdmcihomes/?hc_ref=ARQRPlxOXZqeD3086_hWh2u1PwCVU04UAih_gAZX5ZrOxMDgazNY21_MA0WcMQPKsI8&fref=nf 6, The people who bought preselling 2-3-4 years ago and saw the developers raising their prices still have a chance to avoid paying the lumpsum by offering their units at the original prices, or in the worst case, at a very minimal loss, but I am very afraid of the people who have bought late 2016-2017 and now. I am afraid that the option of getting their money back will be slim. Only MACEDA law could protect these people because theoretically they can claim 50pct of the investment back.
  13. DrBubb's Diary - July 2018 Trading - v.114

    https://usawatchdog.com/depression-then-hyperinflation-coming-charles-nenner/ (summary added): Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says don’t believe the Federal Reserve when it says it expects “the strong performance of the economy will continue.” According to Nenner, it’s about to go the other way—down. Nenner explains, “Definitely, later this year, the interest rates are going lower, and it could be much lower. We did work on all kinds of economic indicators. Employment is not going to be as good anymore as they say. Inflation is not going to be as strong as they expect. The commodity index is breaking down. Copper cycles are down. Crude oil cycles are down. Soon, everybody is going to wake up again and say hey, what’s going on? It is very interesting how Wall Street is approaching all the indicators. . . . If you do your homework, everything actually looks like the economy is weakening.” How bad is this financial cycle going to get? Nenner is not afraid to use the “D” word. Nenner contends, “Still, the Fed talks like this could continue forever, and it’s the longest expansion. So, why do you think this time is going to be different? If you start with this low of GDP and interest rates and then you get to recession or depression, then you definitely get into at least disinflation.” So, does Nenner see an actual depression coming soon? Nenner says, “Yeah, I have been saying that for many years. . . . Yes, if you look at the . . . long term cycles. Yes, we are going to a hyperinflation, but first, we are going to have a deflation scare. . . . We have one more scare of deflation before we get into real big inflation problems. It is a matter of timing. So, it could be a couple of years away.”
  14. https://rentpad.com.ph/short-term-rentals/pasay/1br-condo-in-breeze-residences-pasay-for-rent/523beb7f81&cl=1 Below is a picture of the 1BR flat 27square meter that is managed by my property manager FYI. https://www.olx.ph/item/1-bedroom-condo-in-roxas-boulevard-breeze-residences-for-rent-ID8i4Ux.html?h=b567049911 Over 3000 views for this ads... this is record breaking in terms of views. FYI
  15. FAULTY REASONING, DR bubb "" Suppose a buyer agreed to pay P 4million for 1 BR property, and they see the developer selling "reopened" units atP 6million, and they are thinking it should be easy to resell at P5 million or more. At 5 million, after a 5%commission, and 6% in capital gains taxes - ie P 440k in transaction costs - the owner would have a P 560k,or 14% gain on their original cost. That is not very exciting. Moreover, if they cannot sell at P5 Million, andhave to accept a price below P 4.5 Million, they may be stuck with a loss, when they were expecting a bigprofit. "" If the property was worth PHP4Million, and the original buyer has paid up PHP1Million, and he would be able to sell at a 1MIllion profit, - provided he did it himself and avoided expensive middle man - and he was able to avoid cap gains taxes, -- or has a contract written that forces the buyer to pay those taxes if they are due -- then he has made 100pct profit, NET. And I have seen some people make this kind of profit in the bay area. It is very attractive. Only in the Bay Area you can do it. And i swear by the Lord that it is the reality. I even have some experience by the way. When i visited a copy center I saw other papers of units of Anchor Land, that were sold in a similar way. Now I don't know about the profit, but I know a lawyer who handles those kinds of transactions, and some people walk away with big profits. YEAH, the dilemma that those people face is that they invested in the wrong area. Period.