Jump to content

Euro Chocozone Buyer

  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

0 Neutral

About Euro Chocozone Buyer

  • Rank

Recent Profile Visitors

653 profile views
  1. https://www.philstar.com/business/2019/04/22/1911383/positive-carry-steadies-philippine-peso Based on the chart below, technical analysis points to the peso ranging between 51.50 and 53.50. A break below 51.50, however, would lead to a possible move towards the 50-level. Read more at https://www.philstar.com/business/2019/04/22/1911383/positive-carry-steadies-philippine-peso#i1UpUhj1aSy25bpg.99
  2. https://www.bworldonline.com/managing-solvency-risk-from-boom-of-phl-real-estate-sector/ More warnings: "POGO, relying on overseas demand for online gaming, may be subject to disruption if foreign governments begin regulating the players and facilities or even restricting capital flows into this business. More directly, if the large number of foreign workers in POGO and other sectors are prohibited from working in the Philippines, then the residential property market would lose a significant pool of clients. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1105494/new-policy-on-foreign-workers-out-by-may-1?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1Kz-sCOs2ZLwRXQ-RmrhHFpYjj7BiUDhF-rCgZSlcHM5QSBX582LRw1cs#Echobox=1554932003
  3. Euro Chocozone Buyer

    MAKATI PRIME.Com (Gateway page & Links)*

    This guy seems to confirm. Owning Real Estate in the Philippines is not necessarily profitable.
  4. Minute 4.55 Excerpt: - As far as appreciation, don't expect it to appreciate. Do not do it as an investment thinking, thinking... this is not California. If you're lucky, if you're extremely lucky, and you decide to sell it within 5 years, you'll either break even OR only lose maybe 20pct of what you bought it for. So that's if you are lucky. And what I see, and I was a licensed realtor and real estate agent in California, ... it is still a renters market. THERE ARE MORE UNITS AVAILABLE THAN THERE ARE RENTERS. ... i see rents getting cheaper in the metropolian areas. End of Excerpt. He was based in Cebu, -- Cebu has always been weaker because there is less inflow of foreign investment IMO. Manila is the gorilla. Because what I see and have seen in the Bay Area is the exact opposite of late. Rents have been getting very expensive in that area, despite the supply. (ECB's comment) Rents in Monarch Parksuites, a condo with marble flooring are fetching PHP1400 per square meter. That's what I see on rentpad. Not a guarantee that it will go on but the last years rents have increased significantly over there. There were numerous comments on this video. Many people have seen this video and this is a very popular vlogger. Most people who commented - at least 90pct - agreed with the author, even though there are some who have made significant investments in PH real estate. So most ordinary people prefer to rent. But I agree with him that if you buy from developers today, you're going to lose big time, because secondary market prices is way cheaper now.
  5. https://www.facebook.com/Lauren-Property-Listings-for-Sale-970276926511231/?__tn__=kC-R&eid=ARDaScVNqXnpWRL1OPVJVBOEkfJCiMArxn135hfuy-N-AGw-x1hCvTCBj4hCyAd9i_Sn1J5lGBJ8w574&hc_ref=ARRivMsONEuMvLjO6bGCzJh1rslW4ahO0sfLNyOkMK2HtfPJ_QJTBGVN8c-0CmUD8yc&fref=nf&__xts__[0]=68.ARCbn9cy-UG3-Xf8N6XiApWtqsFXpH59_lJ6f1gLd41xfDYncCNln_WrDYpk5oqbN7hhJJ8Wrk9GtyZVeAMmle3uNjk-TZwUz18FtUeWIhftXhaXDe2Gd_i-2KNUt_qDYYITPXugrM3Vke-M7WLoK_6iJYe0hmcZbUyu1DnBd7GeTz9KJITtZ8_GEkJaOEe2zcEObFNzDkOLyNBlVkIiHRq2jxJUHFBsD9-F-Au1o1gGXtQhinFIqeMu5xWqyOCMVHLgvQSspZARDV3efckbA8SsSdGIdAbxisnz4kEjN6TBdOuwpoIdCvne_Ru4PC4USYWFIsE45a9884hC7vXfVzA It seems PH property is becoming more difficult to acquire for foreigners from PH developers as the above link seems to indicate that all foreign slots for all Megaworld buildings (except Madison) are occupied now so nothing available from the Megaworld. It is the same thing that I read about Avida Southpoint. I believe all foreign slots also gone. So PH property is getting more attractive for foreign buyers. SMDC Sail residences. Just launched. We can just bet on it that within 20-30 days all foreign slots will be gone as well. Just my two cents.
  6. ""However, Lobien cited key risks that may hamper demand. These include higher borrowing rates following the 175-basis point hike in interest rates last year, out of sync supply and demand, and the lack of infrastructure to support property developments"" https://www.manilatimes.net/property-firm-bullish-on-domestic-market/522134/?fbclid=IwAR2wiMDi9j1oPrxrQ9AUj5wW5xWjxQeURTPGdACDTNp_fjiHeRMaInIar3w And another warning. "Out of sync supply and demand" How you can you have a deficit in residential units when you increase its supply 100pct in 2 years??? When you increase the supply this much, there's a bigger risk for "abundance" and "too much supply". A surplus of units and a deficit in buyers/tenants.
  7. But there's also a warning from
  8. https://www.bworldonline.com/why-luxury-condo-prices-continue-to-soar-in-phl/?fbclid=IwAR1dUpQv3tsh0kNvDl1CRYyrr6wsYB1MyJs_0RDLSud2PczaBy7dfA82Ewg “Yes, we look at how expensive it is now but remember how many millionaires, billionaires are being created because of China investing here. I know so many people who have been trying to sell their property for year they couldn’t sell, then all of a sudden the Chinese nationals come here, increase the value of the property and all of a sudden they went from very poor to being millionaires overnight,” Mr. Leechiu told BusinessWorld. (comment: must be PHP billionaires, since we have yet to see the first USD billionaire from this speculation) https://www.manilatimes.net/rising-pogo-demand-to-hike-property-prices/527587/?fbclid=IwAR2PtH0cZ1_UF11sESMts3JpJMLUDMugdk-aDkSJHm-FygTtu1avuSQlrGQ ""LPC President David Leechiu told a news briefing in Makati City on Monday that he was expecting a deficit in condominium units beginning the second semester of the year amid strong demand from property buyers, particularly from mainland Chinese employed by the local POGO business.."" Dr Bubb, how can you have a deficit in condominium units when the supply will almost double in the Bay Area in a few years time, and it is happening now, with approx. 3K to 4K units turned over every quarter since the end of last year and continuing into early 2020??? I thought there would be a deficit in BUYERS, as the few who couldn't get loans would be forced to sell their units at cost or even lower, and drive the overall price lower, but it is not happening. If the deficit will be severe the 2H of 2019, how bad will it be in 2-3 years when the supply increase will be over? And how is SMDC able to sell its SAIL residences at such lofty prices? The supply increase is BRUTAL now. The first prices I have seen are for approximately 10M for a 33sqm unit (SAIL residences), that's close to PHP300K per square meter. They must be targeting "drunken" sailors. When will the madness stop? When will the market run out of "greater fools"???
  9. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-03/peso-beats-asian-peers-in-surprise-win-as-philippine-cpi-eases The new safe haven currency??
  10. https://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/colliers quarterly manila q4 2018 residential.pdf?la=en-gb "" Colliers is revising its forecast of condominium price increase from 2019 to 2021 upward to 5pct yearly from the previous 3pct. "" WOW. There you have it. PHILIPPINE REAL ESTATE WILL NEVER GO DOWN IN VALUE.
  11. The entire developed world is now actively "taxing to death" Chinese flight capital. Australia is the latest. Peter from the Property Club has several videos about the dramatic tax increases occurring in AUS/QsLand. For non resident owners 3pct of the value of the homes will be taxed. This is the highest in the world. This will cause a fall in prices, just as the S&L crisis in the early 80s was also partially caused by government policies. 3pct is a lot. You can basically say that the government is nationalizing the rental income. So there you have it. All the - especially English speaking - developed countries have made property ownership a big hassle now. But maybe all the these policies might cause more investment in Philippine real estate.
  12. Euro Chocozone Buyer

    SECONDHAND Market in Makati - Data points

    https://www.olx.ph/item/rush-sale-most-affordable-unit-in-avida-cityflex-bgc-ID8zs4M.html?h=a214f5332c https://www.olx.ph/item/studio-for-sale-in-makati-ID8xKhJ.html Surprise. Surprise. I think both sales are what I call "below the market value". Megaworld one central MAKATI for php125K psm and Avida Cityflex BGC for 130K psm and suddenly -- the ads are gone -- the links no longer work. There is a secondary market in PH real estate. If you drop the asking price below a certain level, buyers will step in, and this proves it. My idea of a normal market price for Megaworld second hand in Makati is around PHP140K to PHP145K psm, that is based on other ads that i have seen posted. For BGC the price is around PHP135K for Avida style buildings. That is my market price. Filipinos will not pay more. But Chinese pay more, far more. Real estate is an "imperfect" market, -- it takes longer for "abnormal" low offers to be absorbed by the market. There are no "market makers" in this market like in the stock markets. So it appears as if there is liquidity in this market.
  13. Euro Chocozone Buyer

    BGC / The Fort: Uptown, Park Avenue, etc... How Bullish?*

    Yeah, adding insult to the "BGC" injury, here's another ad with a unit for sale in Avida Citiflex. The psm is only PHP130K. - A far cry from the PHP200K+ official price. https://www.olx.ph/item/rush-sale-most-affordable-unit-in-avida-cityflex-bgc-ID8zs4M.html?h=a214f5332c Is the market spiralling down? Are interest rate rises starting to take their toll on the market?
  14. Hi There is more news about Avida Verge. https://www.facebook.com/AyalaLandInternationalHongKong/ It seems that Avida has developed a new business strategy now that most of its land in BGC has been developed. They are "pumping" this project as a way to get into BGC at a lower cost than the official preselling prices of their existing projects in BGC. Verge is quite expensive, it seems. It looks as if they are charging PHP180K psm. For Boni Shaw area - this price is very high. 4.2M for a 22.80sqm Junior 1 bedroom and 7M for 35sqm 1 bedroom. according to comments posted on SSC - the Verge thread. not cheap. ECB comment. It is quite IRONIC as BGC is on the "verge" of COLLAPSE. Rents have collapsed already but it is capital values which are at risk now due to rising supply, falling rents and rising interest rates. "Rents collapse first", capital values are next. IMO.
  15. Euro Chocozone Buyer

    BGC / The Fort: Uptown, Park Avenue, etc... How Bullish?*

    https://www.olx.ph/item/rush-sale-and-for-rent-avida-cityflex-bgc-executive-studio-ID8kx3f.html?h=b7476991be I have seen this ad for quite some time. There have been close to 1000 views so it has been around for quite some time, yet, despite it being one of the lowest price "resale" properties on the market, it has trouble getting sold. (Avida cityflex is a SOHO type condo, and location wise located on the fringe of BGC -- and the finishing of the CITIFLEX units was extremely limited, with f.i. vinyl flooring), but it indicates that the psm resale price for this unit is probably 10pct below what the owner is asking; like PHP125K to PHP130K psm. This resale price is a far cry from the official prices. https://www.olx.ph/item/avida-cityflex-bgc-semi-furnished-1br-for-rent-ID8znp6.html?h=b6d5975f14 An unfinished unit for rent in CITIFLEX. PHP25K for 50 square meters. That is just PHP500 psm. This rental price is UNIMAGINABLE in PASAY/MAKATI. In 2019 there is still 8,000 units that are going to be turned over in BGC, so the pain will last for another year. My idea is that the market in BGC will therefore recover in 2020 when there is less supply in BGC. Also in 2020 the SKYTRAIN that connects BGC with MAKATI will open, and that will have a big impact on both BGC and MAKATI. For MAKATI, in 2020 you're looking at 16,000 new units in all of Makati, plus the fact that BGC will become an attractive alternative destination should Makati become too expensive with the help of the SKYTRAIN. The SKYTRAIN will further lower the rental rates in MAKATI (already under pressure by this 16,000 unit increase in Makati), so Makati will get some hits, and the beneficiary of the skytrain will be the BGC unit owners because eventually BGC and MAKATI rents will converge to each other. BGC rents will start to rise in 2020 while Makati rents will start to fall. Lastly, you forgot to mention that the BAY AREA is also an ISLAND. Also a "fairy tale" island, - "the city of dreams" and the BAY AREA has not been hit by lower rents, yet. And because it will not be connected to the new underground metro, and no skytrain, there might be a chance that rents will stay elevated for quite some time. It will now be interesting to see where the second trainwreck - in terms of rental rates - will manifest itself. Either Makati or the Bay AREA.