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Euro Chocozone Buyer

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  1. It's out. 4Q 2017 Residential report from Colliers. http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing reports/4q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf Rents down. Prices up. They still forecast Makati 3Br condo price to increase by 13,8pct from 4Q2017 to 4Q2018. The lower band for 3Br is PHP110,300 per square meter. When I checked the ads on OLX.ph I found the San Lorenzo Place units -- and there are 3 of them - offered for around PHP110,300 per square meter (8,5M instead of the 11,5M market price). And these are just asking prices for the secondary market. Real prices will probably be lower. (Maybe that is the way these indexes are calculated?? -- just by looking at olx.ph and guessing the market...) https://www.olx.ph/item/last-2br-unit-san-lorenzo-place-makati-city-air-jazz-rise-residences-ID8gwPR.html?h=622437d62d&utm_source=Opt_Var_1&utm_campaign=VDay2018_B On the other hand, just today a newer ad was posted and for the first time ever, a 38 square meter San Lorenzo Place unit was offered by an Empire East seller for 6,5Million which amounts to around PHP172,000 per square meter. This is a new record. (there is an annual price increase for most EmpEast projects this february 16th) Just like in Hong Kong, my impression is that the smaller units are rising faster in value than the bigger units, because there s more people who can afford smaller properties and fewer who can afford bigger properties. All units 1Br and studios in the Ellis were sold already, the only thing left is 2BR, 2Br link and 1BR executive i have been told. http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-relentless-climb-of-hong-kong-real.html (In HK it is the smaller sized units which are breaking all records) (interestingly in his latest insight the writer says there is dramatic underinvestment in housing in USA, causing future price rises over there. IN MNL there is way too much investment) The same is also true for the Bay Area where SMDC raised the price for most 27square meter Breeze units from 5M to 6M. (it is quite unusual that prices are still rising despite this development completed in 2Q-3Q 2017) (usually when buildings are completed prices fall but for Breeze they are still rising). And the newer Megaworld development in the Bay Area has an average square meter price of PHP250,000 according to Rob Luats facebook page affirming my conviction that developers have not built enough units to dampen speculative - false? - demand. They really need to build something like 15,000 to 20,000 units a year to cool this, but they are now waiting for the secondary market prices to pick up. The question is whether the decline in the value of the PHP against most currencies, as well as the inflation rate which is running at 4pct now, is going to be a bigger driver in future pricing than a possible stock market crash, which might become increasing likely in the months ahead, and we will have to see which forces are bigger. But any steep fall will no doubt have severe psychological impacts in the red hot PH real estate market. PH will probably muddle thru this nicely. But 13pct price appreciation is just too optimistic in my opinion. (Pssst. 13pct for Makati is too much. But not for Breeze. I Expect the SMDC Official price of 27sqm Breeze units to reach 7M by the end of 2018. Still hopefull we can reach 10M by early 2020.)
  2. A possible explanation for SM Corporation stock outperformance. ===== PH: Smph / SM Prime Holdings Inc. ... All-data : Latest: P35.90 (12/6/2017) /range: 26.20 to 38.25 ===== SMDC is the leading propery developer in the Bay Area, and the fact that the stock is the strongest amongst all the major developers is another indication that the Bay Area is becoming the new "BGC", or the new "Makati". While Ayala Land and Megaworld stock price has only recently reached their 2013-2014 heights, SM Holdings has gone straight up. There is a strong secondary market for SMDC and Federal Land condos in the Bay Areas. A 27sq meter condo in Breeze residences which a few years ago could be acquired for 3,2M PHP now has an official 5,4M PHP price tag, and can be sold on the secondary market for about 4 to 4,2Million PHP.
  3. http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/3q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf Everybody's favorite -- the Residential Market - is up 1pct QonQ in the 3rd Q of 2017, with rents down 1pct. Vacancies are expected to rise to the midteens until mid-end 2018, then decline into single digits by the end of 2019. That's it. No oversupply according to Colliers...
  4. A new all time high for the condo units in NCR http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/rrepi.htm Condo unit index NCR 122,3 Q1 2017 to 125,8 Q2 2017 Growth rate Q to Q: 2,9pct, -- that's almost 11pct on a yearly basis. So much for the slow bursting of the property bubble. It rather looks like the slowly inflating property bubble is unstoppable. This is an indication that the secondary market is picking up, and following the price rises of the primary market.
  5. https://www.facebook.com/allabode/?hc_ref=ARRpk4z1eWBNGhaI1KWAE2JbHTWKxgfj5RzFLdaaDc82dReDmavGNZ6KJjNW5jW3YiA Another Avida San Lorenzo studio for sale Asking price is 2M for 22,5 square meter, that is around 89500 per sqm. Not bad. The developer is also offering 1Br and 2Br units for sale I believe however this price is around 135K per square meter.
  6. Dotproperty.com.ph now also lists historical asking prices and rental yields in the building that you might be interested in. Flair-towers (DMCI) https://www.dotproperty.com.ph/condo/534/flair-towers The yield (8,7pct) is probably calculated on the current market price, meaning that investors who bought early, and paid maybe 55K to 60K per square meter are looking at 9,5 to 11pct yield perhaps. The median rent per square meter appears to have dropped from 700PHP to about 600PHP (oct 16 to sept 17) Not all condos in all buildings in the metro are listed though. https://www.dotproperty.com.ph/condo/384/breeze-residences For Breeze Residences - Manila Bay -- the average rental is PHP27,600 and average selling price for a 1-BR unit is PHP3,700,000. I guess this is close to the secondary market price for these units. So early investors (3,2 PHP Mil) might expect a 10pct gross yield. Not bad if they are able to rent it out in this competitive environment. Most of these rentals are short term rentals, -- the income can be very irregular. https://www.dotproperty.com.ph/condo/544/sheridan-towers For Sheridan Towers there are 166 units for sale but we know all units are sold out in this project, so I guess they just took the ads from olx.ph and entered those data in their database to get a glimpse of what is happening in that project. By listing historical asking prices we might get a better idea of what is happening within our buildings and with your projects.
  7. Well that is exactly my point. I just read on facebook, Shore 3 residences (tower 4) from SMDC was launched august 18th. In 10 days they sold around 500 units from the 600 units in that building, so it is almost completely sold out in a matter of days. https://www.facebook.com/christianiyann?hc_ref=ARR8-JjsnreHsPdsCX5VY7SRFcfw7-p3u9TVnM4_dhUD0NOX6wg1fDMHCfdFOMAMXRg&fref=nf&pnref=story I wish they had released more stock in the Bay Area because the price per square meter is now around PHP240,000 -- that's almost the Ayala Premier price of a couple of years ago in various areas. http://www.manilacondostore.com/shore-3-residences So for all of you out there -- procastinators or lookers or hesitators or whatever -- the Bay Area is now more expensive than BGC and even Makati, because a nice project like the Rise Makati is "struggling" to sell its units at PHP190,000 per square meter for studio units, and it cannot even match Shore 3. This is the first time that I see the php245K-php250K price per square meter on ordinary condos from SMDC. -- There is nothing special about these condos. They're just a mass housing project in a nice location.
  8. http://www.malaya.com.ph/business-news/business/condo-buyers-pay-hefty-price-parking An article about parking slots which appear to be getting more expensive all the time...
  9. From the comment section in his youtube channel: "+Philippine Dreams - asleep to believe it And yes its disgusting! These websites are pathetic. I would like to start a website/app just for resale property through out Asia where people can post for free (eventually charge fees once cornered the market). Wanted to do that thing for a long time. In fact! I pitched to a private equity firm i worked with in China/HK. They agreed to give me 500K USD to do it! BUT the $@!?!$@ guy named "Tian" who was "hijacking" ahemmm managing the fund LITERALLY misappropriated the funds and embezzled it before I even saw $1. Funny story. Welcome to China! Then people say Philippines is corrupt If they only know. China is the worst! Especially for investors.
  10. http://www.philstar.com/business/2017/09/04/1735490/peso-euro-rate-weakens-17-year-date
  11. Peter from the Property Club explains how to use olx.ph to search for second-hand properties. In this video he explains that most properties listed are just scams, developer scams, and it takes a while to find good deals. Incidentally he also shows ads for second hand units in Leaurano di Trevi, Avida San Lorenzo, Soho, forclosures and others so it is informative.
  12. More investors are using AirBnB to rent out their condos https://investkabayan.com/airbnb-investors-ticket-to-stream-of-passive-income 13,000 active AirBNB listings in PH
  13. Are we overbuilding???? http://business.inquirer.net/236183/are-we-overbuilding