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Euro Chocozone Buyer

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  1. A warning signal This article was written early 2016 and that is just before we saw the dramatic price increases in places like the bay, bgc """"""""""""""""""""""""" In many cases apartments are not old, and are selling for millions below what they bought for from the developer https://theexpatangle.com/aroundtown/manila-property-market-to-buy-or-not-to-buy/ """"""""""""""""""""
  2. http://www.atayala.com/sellers-article/2017-02-02/philippine-real-estate-in-a-bubble No reason to worry according to the author of this article...
  3. http://www.property-report.com/detail/-/blogs/rising-townhouse-and-condo-prices-buoy-the-philippines-real-estate-ind-4 I know the BSP data is a "lagging" indicator, but again we see the words "dramatic" price increase in 4Q 2017 in this article.
  4. It is better to wait until prices have fallen 20pct according to this guy. Timing is everything.
  5. But there is also a danger in my line of reasoning. While everywhere in the developed and developing world, life expectancy is RISING, IN the USA life expentancy - especially for most while males is declining - due to drug use, opiod, depression and alcohol -- and thus many baby boomers might not live until the age of 65.
  6. Not so fast, Dr Bubb. Harry Dent talks about real estate investment dynamics, but then suddenly we found out he has bought a VACATION home in Puerto Rico. And he is apparently following the "GREATER FOOL" theory. I mean, i haven't seen any information in this video about the SUPPLY of vacation homes in Puerto Rico, and I can only conclude that the reason why he has made this investment is because there are going to be more people buying vacation homes -- there is a second wave of people who buy vacation homes and peak at the age of 65 --. And VOILA, here you have it. And I have seen BABY BOOMERS in Breeze Residences. Especially American Baby boomers, and I have seen them in the sales offices of Avida Land and other places, and lo and behold, the number of people reaching the age of 65 is going to increase until 1961+65 = 2026 for American Baby Boomers and 1964+65 for European Baby Boomers = 2030 (Thailand will be Europe's favorite while PH will be an American vacation land). (This is the reason why Thailand will become the most prosperous nation by 2030 -- because the traditional spending wave only looks at domestic spending, and Thais births peaked like Europe-China's birth peak -- but I take into account INTERNATIONAL SPENDING) So the theory goes something like this. MOAR baby boomers vacation home buying peaking at age 65 and this trend rising until 2026 for PH, MOAR fools . And MOAR fools leads to "GREATER" fools and GREATER fools leads to HIGHER PRICES. In any case, BABY BOOMERS, and for PH especially, American Baby Boomers are going to minimize and mitigate the effects of a supply shock coming to the Bay Area. Therefore I do not expect a 50pct retracement. We might see a slight cooling of the market but as MNL becomes one of the most densly populated areas in the world, the ECB is confident American Baby Boomers will step in and prevent a melt down. Agreed, SMDC is a proxy for the Entire Philippines. SMDC is especially concentrated in VACATION homes. I still expect 27sq meter Breeze units official SMDC price to reach PHP7M by year end. And that's the offical price which is totally decoupled from the secondary market. The stock market is not always a good indicator of the real estate market. 2007-2009 proved that. The stock market fell 50pct but real estate indexes were down only 4-5pct. Normally that loss can be overcome with rental proceeds. The stock market would have to fall more than 50pct for it to have any meaningful impact on PH property prices. I still expect the BSP index for 1Q 2018 to be up as I have only seen price increases with most developers. http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com/2018/02/bsps-reserve-requirement-ratio-cut-is.html In this article you see the stock market index and the property index, and stocks are far more volatile than RE.
  7. Dr Bubb, when is the Philippine Real Estate market going to run out of bigger fools??? Is there a way to measure the number of bigger fools in PH real estate? I read somewhere that around 400,000 people could already qualify for a PHP1, TO php1,5Million loan, but for bigger amounts, you are looking at a very small number of bigger fools. (I mean local Philippines based individuals). Dr Bubb is a "numbers guy". Maybe he knows the exact number of bigger fools and based on this number one/he might be able to predict when the market will fall. Of course, it is made more difficult by the "international" fools who also operate in this market.
  8. Greater Fools are the ones buying now / in edit, by drBubb: Here's a second video, where he gives reasons why Canadian prices MUST come down - basically, incomes and rents have to rise to sustain the higher prices. And the government may prefer to put restrictions on buying by Foreign Speculators, mainly from China / Real Estate "Breaking Point" - Prices MUST go Down!
  9. AirBnB is not banned. I am still seeing ads for short term rentals in SMDC and Anchor Land units in the Bay Area, and it might just be that other building managers are now more strictly enforcing rules and therefore banning their building if short term rentals violate the rules of the building. Later on in the video, you hear that Peter's love affair with Manila is over and he is now actively looking into Thailand, Japan and CAMBODIA.
  10. There are still better deals available on the secondary market. Many Breeze residences units (27sq m units ) are sold on the secondary market for 3,6 - 3,7 - 3,8 million PHP, around PHP145K to PHP150K per square meter, (according to OLX.ph) while the official price is around PHP6- 6,2Million for units facing amenities/MNL Bay. The price per square meter around MOA is perhaps around PHP170K to PHP180K and likely not more for the moment. Anybody who is paying these developer prices is at risk of a big loss if the market heads south. It s an almost 50pct price difference between PRIMARY and SECONDARY markets, IMO. The facebook page MAKATI - BGC BROKERS has a lot of listings of units that are for sale in the secondary market and which are shared amongst these BROKERS.
  11. http://bworldonline.com/q4-home-price-hike-biggest-in-three-quarters/ Q4 home price hike biggest in three quarters EXCERPTS: HOUSE PRICES rose faster in 2017’s last three months from a year ago, marking the biggest increase in three quarters as duplex and condominium prices surged by double-digit pace, according to data the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) released on Wednesday. Prices rose by 5.7% year-on-year from October to December, clocking the fastest pace since a 6.5% climb in 2017’s first quarter, according to the latest BSP residential real estate price index (RREPI). The 2017 fourth-quarter pace compares to the preceding three months’ 1.8% and the year-ago 3.3% rise. On average, housing prices rose by 3.6% for the entire 2017, roughly flat from 2016. 2 / Central bank officials have noted sustained strong demand for commercial and living space in the Philippines, showing that price increases are driven by actual demand and allaying fears of a bubble. A bubble forms as a perceived rising demand for houses drives developers to build more units, and is said to “burst” as consumption stagnates and causes an abrupt drop in prices that could jolt exposed banks. The BSP limits a bank’s real estate exposure to 20% of its total loan portfolio. Philippine banks handed out P1.801 trillion in real estate loans last year, with home loans accounting for a third at P608.142 billion, according to latest available BSP data.
  12. https://www.prosperna.com.ph/real-estate-bubble-philippines/ EXCERPT " Firstly and without a doubt, 2015 was the best time to buy especially Off Plan upmarket Condos. The average price for such a condo was around PhP 130,000 (USD $2,600) per square meter and in 2017 it’s now PhP 200,000 (USD $4,000) per square meter or higher with Ayala Land Premier and Rockwell Proscenium selling at an estimated PhP 270,000 per square meter and above. However, the average rental price for these condos is the same as 2015 and could even be argued that it is less, as more and more Pre-Selling Condos complete and their inventory becomes available on the market. For example, the Milano Residences, a Century City property, and the Park Terraces, an Ayala Land Premier property, both in Makati are good indicators of this. So what does this mean for a real estate investor? In simple terms, it means that in 2015, a real estate investor was getting about 8% net Yield and today an investor is probably getting only about a 5% net yield or even less if they buy at Rockwell or Park Terraces" (DrBubb: That's Nick Stuart, writing for Dennis Velasco's website - I know them both - had lunch with Nick recently.) > Prosperna thread on Mak-Prime
  13. "There has been an "OFF THE RICHTER SCALE" price increase in condominium prices in the MM NCR. Part 2. Here is anecdotal evidence from Skyscrapercity that people accept the higher prices, and are keenly aware that they pay maybe 20-40pct more for new construction than a few years ago. 1) Shore 2 residences - SMDC http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1817408&page=3 Ang swerte ng mga early buyers nito. We got in really very late in the game. 24sqm 1 bedroom is priced at 5.3M (deducted na yung 10% promo nila now). Even if, we still reserved a unit..Just hope na Shore2 will still command good rental investment in future. 2) Prisma residencs - DMCI http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1842164&page=12 Just reserved a unit 1BR Type C for 3.7M already closing fees for Celeste Tower. Ok kaya? I regret missing the 1st tower last year. That's almost a Million increase today =/ So there are the stories of real people who admit and know that they re paying more for new units from the developer than a few years ago. FYI.