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About Traineeinvestor

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    Hong Kong
  • Interests
    Investing - mostly Hong Kong and Antipodean equities and real estate.
  1. Then again - just out today the latest numbers show a whopping 0.07% increase in the CCL last week: http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-content/NOW.916475/top-news I know, its not meaningful, but it does help to stir the pot.
  2. Traineeinvestor

    Traineeinvestor's diary - HK and Far East Focus

    Added a little more paper silver to the portfolio + some shares in CKA (HK:1113) to the portfolio just before Christmas. Taking a look at Sinopec (HK:386) after the big sell off following news that two executives from of its larger subsidiaries may have lost a big chunk of shareholders' money on the recent slide in oil prices. The extent of the damage is unknown, but after a quick look at the accounts I would be extremely surprised if the loss of profit + actual loss was more than 20% of the companies total profit in FY2017. That's a guess based on the size of the relevant subsidiary's profit as a percentage of the whole group's profit.
  3. The larger HK property developers like Henderson, SHK, CKA, NWD and HLP are all selling at around 50% (or more) discount to NAV. Given that they have rock solid balance sheets, they seem to be pricing in a major decline in HK property prices and/or commercial rents. I've added a few more CKA (HK:1113) to the portfolio.
  4. Traineeinvestor

    Traineeinvestor's diary - HK and Far East Focus

    I'm working on the theory that if the bank bearing the name of the world's larges creditor nation runs into financial difficulties we have bigger problems than my small scale investments. I understand where you are coming from on service - HSBC has always been okay for me, but not the cheapest. Ditto BOCHK (apart from recent waiting times).
  5. Traineeinvestor


    A selection of 2019 gold price predictions from nine major financial institutions (all worth exactly what you pay for them): https://goldsilver.com/blog/2019-gold-price-forecasts-and-predictions-from-the-big-investment-banks/ Predicted average prices for 2019 range from $1,292 to $1500 with an average of the averages coming in at $1,342 which is only around 7.5% above the price at the time of writing this ($1,249).
  6. Traineeinvestor

    Traineeinvestor's diary - HK and Far East Focus

    I took a new look at the various options for buying physical precious metals in Hong Kong since it has been a few years since I was in the market: 1. BOCHK has previously been my go to source for physical gold. They have a limited range of product (which does not bother me much since they have the 1 oz Maple Leaf which is good enough for my purposes). Unfortunately, they lost my business this time around – when I arrived they t were serving ticket #19. Forty minutes later, they were serving ticket #20. In fairness to the woman working the only counter open in the VIP section, both customers had some fairly significant stacks of paper on the counter. 2. Hang Seng Bank was recommended by a few people (including Dr. B), but I would need to open a bank account with them which is currently a pain due to AML laws etc. I passed. 3. Kitco and LPM are the two other established precious metals dealers in Hong Kong. LPM offered tighter buy/sell spreads, simplified account opening (much easier than opening a bank account – not sure how long before the regulators intervene and mess this up), fast response time to on-line queries and no extra fees so they got my business. For non-physical (which I prefer for silver because of the amount of storage space needed), I am sticking with BOCHK. The spreads are lower than physical with no holding costs or risk of theft. In terms of pure pricing (both transactional and holding), it is the best option I have found. I do recognise that I am (i) taking credit risk on BOCHK and (ii) subject to risk of BOCHK changing its pricing policies).
  7. Traineeinvestor


    Thanks - I will contact them.
  8. Traineeinvestor


    Thanks - I know they used to offer a limited range through their head office branch but there is no mention of physical precious metals services on their website. Do you know if they still have this service? And do I need to open a bank account with them? BOCHK still offers a limited range of coins and bars and have always been painless to deal with. Kitco and LPM have a wider range of products but I have never dealt with either.
  9. Traineeinvestor


    Does anyone have any experience in buying bullion from Kitco in Hong Kong? Thanks in advance.
  10. That sounds quite interesting. Growing cash flows are wonderful things. I generally prefer to buy the parent company in a group as well.
  11. FWIW, HSBC has a target of $24.70 on HLP (HK:101).
  12. 87001 offers an 8.4% dividend yield (tax free for HK residents). It may not have the growth potential of 101, but it's a great income generator and offers a DRP for those who like to reinvest and see their returns compound over time.
  13. FWIW, HSBC has a price target of HKD26.70 on Hang Lung Properties. That's quite a decent upside from present levels.
  14. Sorry to hear about this - sounds like they have lost touch with the idea that customers have issues with paying more for no good reason (sounds like a lot of political deadbeats). If it will help, I can offer a small contribution to any increased costs (whether monthly or one off). I don't agree with everything posted here, but I do value a site where contrasting ideas can be freely exchanged without the discussion degenerating into name calling.
  15. Actually, given the high transaction costs in HK (stamp duty, legal fees, agency), outgoings (management fees, rates), possible fit out costs and holding costs (mortgage payments) (less actual or implied rent of course), I'd say it is very possible to lose money even if the underlying property price does increase. If you were in the position of paying double stamp duty (15%), you would need prices to increase by at least that amount to have any chance of breaking even. Agree that the test will be the falling market and I suspect that the next down turn may be a bit different from the last one because: 1. the banks have less direct risk exposure due to the higher LTV requirements 2. the banks' indirect exposure through lending to developers who on lend to buyers is (IMHO) relatively low risk because most of the HK property developers have very strong balance sheets are are themselves well able to survive a big fall in property prices. They will feel the pain of losses but will survive 3. the number of non-residents owning property in HK is (I believe) much higher than last time. Intuitively, I would expect non-residents to be more willing to walk away from their obligations resulting in more mortgagee sales 4. if things get bad, the HKSAR govt can remove some or all of the cooling measures.