happy

And for the moment the 30 year / 2 year spread remains in a downtrend, which, judging by the correlation = negative for Gold

I haven't managed to quantify the edge w/ fibonacci fanlines, however, typically this would constitute a very bearish setup. The interpretation would be as follows: the rejection of the 62.8% fanline confirms the 2011 top in the context of the 2001-2011 bull market.

Sorry, that was a typo (as per previous post) ... should be 19.90. Anyway, looks like we are due a relief rally at the very least.

Just for the sake of contrast, an über bearish view on Silver (funny how often 'elliot wave' and 'bearish' seem to go hand in hand) . . from Elliot Wave Gold: Last Elliott wave analysis for Silver (and GDX) expected the trend was down. It turns out this was correct, as it has been confirmed for Gold today. Although the alternate wave count for Silver is not technically invalidated, I expect it should be within another couple of weeks. I will just present the one wave count for you today, with Gold, Silver and GDX all in alignment. For now minute wave v is incomplete. While it is underway no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 19.907 ^ looks like 19.10 is the "line in the sand" for the more bullish scenario

latest from Martin Armstrong: Ecuador, Goldman & Gold Ecuador hands Goldman Sachs 466,000 ounces of gold worth roughly $580 million at today’s ruling price. Ecuador under its socialist President Rafael Correa is seeking sources of cash after they borrowed over $11 billion from China because they defaulted on $3.2 billion of foreign debt five years ago. This is the consequence of debt and in the hands of socialists-communists, the bonds ultimately are always defaulted upon. Like Zimbabwe, who had to adopt foreign currency because people will not trust their own, Ecuador is the only country in South America that is using the US dollar as currency. Ecuador did not sell its gold, it effectively borrowed against it in exchange for more liquid assets. Ecuador expects to turn a profit of as much as $20 million on the transaction and it will get the gold back within three years and the central bank expects to turn a profit of as much as $20 million on the transaction without explaining how. It appears that Goldman will most likely sell the gold forward helping to break the back of gold and will most likely look to replace it at the lows under $1,000.

I don't doubt that the "debt issue" impacts on the price of Gold . . . at times. The problem is that market psychology, like so many other things, moves in waves. Your call for a significant low in Gold may prove prescient, and yes, perhaps this coincides with a corresponding high in complacency regarding the debt issue. If and when the debt issue again becomes a focus, then perhaps Gold will be a beneficiary. But this is quite a separate argument from saying that the level of debt directly impacts on the price of gold, or exhibits any meaningful correlation.

Perhaps ... but then one would need to take into account other asset classes as well, very quickly complicating the picture.

I remember Dominic Frisby posted a version of this chart some time ago (implying a causal link between the US Debt Ceiling and the price of Gold) . . . but really, one should take a step back and look at the bigger picture: Looking at this graph, it is clear that the US Debt Ceiling only ever moves in one direction (until it doesn't), but this is irrespective of whether Gold is in a bull or bear market! It does not even exhibit correlation, let alone causation. I understand the reasons for owning Gold, and the US public debt is certainly a contributing factor. But to suggest that the level of US Debt has any meaningful relation to the price of Gold, finds no basis in fact. It is a proverbial red herring. To borrow a line from Gary Tanashian: "Gold is about value, not price." The question of whether there ought to be a relation between US public debt and the price of Gold, is a completely different matter.

That he did . . . followed by . . . and finally . . .

for what its worth:

meanwhile . . . Yves Lamoureux has again turned bearish on the yellow metal:

Hoisington: Second Quarter 2013 Outlook

For what its worth, latest Gold update by Yves Lamoureux Cf., Goldenfreude (15.04.2013) and Gold Road to Salvation (24.06.2013) Lamoureux's call seems to (roughly) correspond to Anthony Caldaro's Patrick M's Elliot Wave count on Gold

Is The Low In For Gold? via ZeroHedge: Citi's FX Technicals group is biased to believe that the low in this correction may have been posted for Gold. Here's why... Two years ago gold bugs ran wild as the price of gold rose nearly six times. But since cresting two years ago it has steadily declined, almost by half, putting the gold bugs in flight. The most recent advisory from a leading Wall Street firm suggests that the price will continue to drift downward, and may ultimately settle 40% below current levels. The rout says a lot about consumer confidence in the worldwide recovery. The sharply reduced rates of inflation combined with resurgence of other, more economically productive investments, such as stocks, real estate, and bank savings have combined to eliminate gold's allure. Although the American economy has reduced its rapid rate of recovery, it is still on a firm expansionary course. The fear that dominated two years ago has largely vanished, replaced by a recovery that has turned the gold speculators' dreams into a nightmare. The above note is probably a close representation of consensus market view at the moment, except that it is taken from an article in the… New York Times, 29 August 1976 (3 days after the corrective low had been posted in 1975-1976 before Gold started a 3 year rally into late 1979/early 1980) Between 1973 and 1974 the DJIA fell 45%. As the Equity market then recovered Gold went into a corrective phase within 3 months that saw it fall 445 as the Equity market rallied. This time around gold has in fact been much more resilient. – It did not peak until Sept 2011 ( 2 ½ years after the Equity market bottomed out) – It has so far corrected 39% with an Equity market that has rallied 140% off the March 2009 low (DJIA). In 1975-1976 it corrected 44% as the equity market rallied 76% In 1976 the Gold correction ended in August and the Equity market began a deep correction in September (27% over 18 months). During that period Gold rallied by about 78% and over the 1976-1980 period it multiplied in value by a factor of 8 from just over $100 to over $800. The final part of that rally saw Gold rise from about $470 to $850 over about 4 weeks on the back of the USSR invasion of Afghanistan. Even without that move it still multiplied by about 4.5 times in just over 3 years. So what are we looking at to increase the likelihood of the “low being in”? In addition daily momentum is turning up from more oversold levels than those seen before the $270 bounce in 2012. On a daily chart this is the most oversold we have seen since the turn higher in Gold in 2001. In addition it has become very stretched to the 55 and 200 day moving averages which now have a big gap between them An important thing to note is that Gold broke its support level the same week as the S&P broke above its 2007 high. As long as the equity market stays resilient (As we saw in 1975-1976) it may be a drag on Gold’s ability to rally substantially. In the 1980-2000 period when financial assets were aggressively rallying, Gold took a back seat. We may need the market to be more concerned about the financial/economic backdrop before Gold can get any real traction again. The pattern into the low on Gold also reminds us of how the S&P set its low in March 2009 Once the first impulsive low at 741 was regained by the S&P it never revisited it. A close above $1,322 on Gold, if seen, would look similar In 1976 the move lower in Gold overshot the 55 month moving average by about 14% A similar move this time would equate to about $1,185 compared to a low so far of $1,181 The 55 month moving average stands at $1,379 The 200 week moving average stands at $1,459 IF and when we start to overcome these levels from $1,322 to $1,459 our conviction of a bottom being in place will grow. While we remain below these levels (especially if the Equity market continues to remain robust) we cannot rule out the danger that we could get another move lower. In that respect we would remain focused on the 1975-1976 correction which if replicated could suggest as low as $1,075